FX Speculator’s US Dollar bets surged for 4th week to highest since March

November 21, 2015

By CountingPips.com | Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies

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US Dollar net speculator positions jumped last week to +$41.64 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators sharply increased their overall net bullish positions in the US dollar last week for a fourth consecutive week and to the highest level since March.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $41.64 billion as of Tuesday November 17th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$7.96 billion from the $33.68 billion total long position that was registered on November 10th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Last week’s data brings the US dollar speculative level to the highest standing since March 24th when net positions stood at $43.91 billion. Over the past four weeks alone, the US dollar speculative level has grown by $28.32 billion as investors have reignited USD bets.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the just the US dollar against the other currencies with decreasing weekly bets for the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican Peso.


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This latest COT data is through Tuesday November 17th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

EURO-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
201510133497201211497015-11492-805768234
20151020357133741379329-17686-6256618010
201510273805642343113445055121-105934-43368
201511034054622489816894434494-134334-28400
201511104219671650518455515611-142939-8605
201511174368011483420415219597-164177-21238

 

British Pound Sterling:

GBP-Brit-Pound-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20151013152164-8209225193631-7527-2994
201510201580435879-345-22864753715064
20151027153453-4590769580404134-3403
20151103151194-2259773035188-3946
20151110172346211523690129171-15770-15958
201511171752542908452328331-25260-9490

 

Japanese Yen:

Japanese-Yen-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20151013169873-90721756-9002-138323767
201510201842811440813067-8689-363910193
2015102718947251915520442137-33911-30272
2015110320427114799651279923-43787-9876
20151110234202299319768632559-66888-23101
201511172503461614411122413538-78611-11723

 

Swiss Franc:

CHF-Swiss-Franc-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
2015101334934-389211951-3208-23521618
20151020356286946735-52166252977
201510273845328251241256771499874
2015110351953135002244810036-7035-8534
20151110600318078278835435-9310-2275
20151117671197088350127129-15329-6019

 

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20151013116800-487644722-6824-339491061
20151020121148434834550-10172-271126837
20151027122885173731969-2581-188958217
20151103119629-325632644675-19491-596
2015111013436014731356022958-179071584
2015111714178574254996714365-28352-10445

 

Australian Dollar:

Australian-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20151013142024208947727-15058-337057134
20151020140367-1657506362909-38412-4707
2015102714100864149145-1491-363522060
2015110314586148535949510350-38625-2273
2015111015359077298018620691-52830-14205
201511171620838493888648678-66464-13634

 

New Zealand Dollar:

NewZealand-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
2015101329038-28922836-25986921663
20151020301421104-1418-425437593067
20151027317431601-3029-161155891830
2015110332539796-4066-103766181029
20151110337191180-221518515564-1054
20151117348991180-90113145248-316

 

Mexican Peso:

Mexican-Peso-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestChange OINet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20151013116418-30067314-1794-41431100
2015102011995535373125-4189-6163527
20151027136629166742242-883-83533
20151103148844122152024-218-735-652
2015111015854396992175419730-18835-18100
20151117181499229564185520101-38263-19428

 

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com

 

 

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