Currency Speculators sharply cut US Dollar net positions to lowest since July 2014

October 24, 2015

By CountingPips.com | Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies

US Dollar net speculator positions decreased last week to +$13.32 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators reduced their overall net bullish positions in the US dollar last week for a third consecutive week and to the lowest level in over a year.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $13.32 billion as of Tuesday October 20th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$5.65 billion from the $18.97 billion total long position that was registered on October 13th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Last week’s data brings the US dollar speculative level to the lowest level since July 15th of 2014 when net positions stood at a long position of $9.94 billion.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican Peso while decreasing weekly bets for just the Australian dollar.


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This latest COT data is through Tuesday October 20th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20150915 311366 -71821 102410 -6035 -84202 -2961
20150922 315450 4084 102114 -296 -81033 3169
20150929 322721 7271 112066 9952 -87660 -6627
20151006 337606 14885 108507 -3559 -88810 -1150
20151013 349720 12114 97015 -11492 -80576 8234
20151020 357133 7413 79329 -17686 -62566 18010

 

British Pound Sterling:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20150915 145704 -41290 13699 -17209 -3619 14019
20150922 146573 869 5006 -8693 1267 4886
20150929 155821 9248 11414 6408 -2047 -3314
20151006 160373 4552 18888 7474 -4533 -2486
20151013 152164 -8209 22519 3631 -7527 -2994
20151020 158043 5879 -345 -22864 7537 15064

 

Japanese Yen:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20150915 166081 -113631 39559 18547 -26814 -20152
20150922 177439 11358 31587 -7972 -23678 3136
20150929 174697 -2742 32538 951 -22052 1626
20151006 170780 -3917 30758 -1780 -17599 4453
20151013 169873 -907 21756 -9002 -13832 3767
20151020 184281 14408 13067 -8689 -3639 10193

 

Swiss Franc:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20150915 37846 -3091 7608 -10792 3782 10678
20150922 36981 -865 11900 4292 -1876 -5658
20150929 38229 1248 14175 2275 -2715 -839
20151006 38826 597 15159 984 -3970 -1255
20151013 34934 -3892 11951 -3208 -2352 1618
20151020 35628 694 6735 -5216 625 2977

 

Canadian Dollar:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20150915 188043 28551 69332 752 -47083 1557
20150922 136213 -51830 57613 -11719 -38394 8689
20150929 139431 3218 62891 5278 -42235 -3841
20151006 121676 -17755 51546 -11345 -35010 7225
20151013 116800 -4876 44722 -6824 -33949 1061
20151020 121148 4348 34550 -10172 -27112 6837

 

Australian Dollar:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20150915 156879 -33882 66468 -18216 -40729 12587
20150922 147279 -9600 75971 9503 -52832 -12103
20150929 142869 -4410 69579 -6392 -48865 3967
20151006 139935 -2934 62785 -6794 -40839 8026
20151013 142024 2089 47727 -15058 -33705 7134
20151020 140367 -1657 50636 2909 -38412 -4707

 

New Zealand Dollar:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20150915 33352 -4973 5761 -9919 -2094 9726
20150922 35920 2568 7840 2079 -3529 -1435
20150929 34105 -1815 6947 -893 -3062 467
20151006 31930 -2175 5434 -1513 -971 2091
20151013 29038 -2892 2836 -2598 692 1663
20151020 30142 1104 -1418 -4254 3759 3067

 

Mexican Peso:

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20150915 130555 -57682 60227 -15484 -55285 15666
20150922 126544 -4011 17119 -43108 -12356 42929
20150929 142517 15973 47696 30577 -44451 -32095
20151006 119424 -23093 9108 -38588 -5243 39208
20151013 116418 -3006 7314 -1794 -4143 1100
20151020 119955 3537 3125 -4189 -616 3527

 

 

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com

 

 

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