Forex: US Dollar Speculators decreased bullish bets for 2nd week

December 13, 2014

By CountingPips.com

US Dollar spec positioning falls but continues to have bullish sentiment versus all Major Currencies

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators cut back on their overall US dollar bullish bets for a second consecutive week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $42.19 billion as of Tuesday December 9th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$5.19 billion from the $47.38 billion total long position that was registered on December 2nd, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar’s decline last week was the largest weekly fall since March but still saw the overall bullish position above the +$40 billion level for a tenth straight week. All the other individually tracked currencies also continued to have a net bearish position versus the dollar for a tenth straight week.

 

Overall Speculative Net US Dollar Contracts


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In terms of total net speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts fell for the first time in seven weeks last week to a total of +397,011 contracts as of Tuesday December 9th. This was a change by -31,547 contracts from the total of +428,558 contracts as of Tuesday December 2nd. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

 

Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes: One Sided – All currencies have net bearish position versus the USD for 10th week

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets last week in favor of the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican Peso.

This latest COT data is through Tuesday December 9th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.




Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
11/04/2014 465332 59566 238587 -179021 -13314
11/11/2014 463976 60454 224347 -163893 15128
11/18/2014 465168 58048 226778 -168730 -4837
11/25/2014 465339 57982 223062 -165080 3650
12/02/2014 462058 57272 216551 -159279 5801
12/09/2014 477861 58306 195218 -136912 22367



British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
11/04/2014 144215 43289 50751 -7462 -1215
11/11/2014 151660 40661 53552 -12891 -5429
11/18/2014 166966 42865 65694 -22829 -9938
11/25/2014 171730 38541 69207 -30666 -7837
12/02/2014 174875 38556 69570 -31014 -348
12/09/2014 192104 37695 61297 -23602 7412



Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
11/04/2014 207974 37917 109568 -71651 -4252
11/11/2014 227576 47271 129834 -82563 -10912
11/18/2014 238898 46612 139066 -92454 -9891
11/25/2014 253976 46304 150684 -104380 -11926
12/02/2014 257828 41530 152690 -111160 -6780
12/09/2014 279859 38067 142203 -104136 7024



Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
11/04/2014 59699 7844 28065 -20221 62
11/11/2014 61280 8752 31427 -22675 -2454
11/18/2014 60718 9142 31258 -22116 559
11/25/2014 61037 8153 31577 -23424 -1308
12/02/2014 63659 8628 31550 -22922 502
12/09/2014 78496 8971 31068 -22097 825



Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
11/04/2014 104720 29627 49042 -19415 1990
11/11/2014 108445 32668 54514 -21846 -2431
11/18/2014 106914 32082 51599 -19517 2329
11/25/2014 102393 32106 48447 -16341 3176
12/02/2014 101752 28533 46922 -18389 -2048
12/09/2014 109650 33406 47768 -14362 4027



Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
11/04/2014 123342 14595 52863 -38268 -4417
11/11/2014 123726 12896 50923 -38027 241
11/18/2014 117859 9522 47124 -37602 425
11/25/2014 127008 12050 56138 -44088 -6486
12/02/2014 133675 13565 54675 -41110 2978
12/09/2014 159287 17378 62391 -45013 -3903



New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
11/04/2014 23716 9737 13846 -4109 -211
11/11/2014 19809 9244 10233 -989 3120
11/18/2014 19907 9134 10381 -1247 -258
11/25/2014 21096 9630 11924 -2294 -1047
12/02/2014 20448 9272 10952 -1680 614
12/09/2014 23550 9786 12081 -2295 -615



Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
11/04/2014 159857 30218 56808 -26590 253
11/11/2014 167364 29393 59067 -29674 -3084
11/18/2014 167389 31305 60339 -29034 640
11/25/2014 176125 26386 58938 -32552 -3518
12/02/2014 191208 30210 73214 -43004 -10452
12/09/2014 213159 32116 80710 -48594 -5590



*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.




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