By IFCMarkets
World stock indices finished lower on Thursday. The ECB President Mario Draghi said there shouldn’t be any rush with the euro issuing start. This issue will be discussed at the beginning of next year. Market participants expected that the EU monetary policy easing would start this year and a part of additional liquidity would support stock markets. Note that Mario Draghi’s statement boosted the EUR/USD rate. Important US labor market data in November is to be released today at 13:30 СЕТ. Tentative outlooks are positive. It is expected that 230 thousand new jobs were created in the United States, compared to 214 thousand in October. There is a possibility that the statistics released today would define the movement of indices and the dollar for a whole week ahead, as currently the US Fed actions are guided by the labor market data. Factory Orders in October will be published at 15-00 СЕТ. In our opinion, the forecast is also positive.
Yesterday European markets were lower than the American ones due to the ECB President’s speech. Now they are rising slightly ahead of the strong US data release. Industrial orders in Germany in October released this morning proved to be better-than-expected. Today we expect also the publication of Q3 GDP in the EU at 10:00 CET. According to forecasts, it is expected to be at the Q2 level and would reach 0.8% yoy.
Nikkei has upped today together with European indices and hit 7-year high. As we have previously mentioned in our overviews, the continued yen depreciation supports the index growth. Note that Sunday night at 23:50 СЕТ the revised Q3 GDP and more macroeconomic data will be released in Japan. In our opinion, projections are positive. Thus, it may slow down the yen weakening.
Brent crude oil dropped below $70 a barrel once more after Saudi Arabia reduced the supply prices for the USA and Asia. Its national petroleum and natural gas company Aramco has offered a discount of $1,9-2 a barrel. Besides, Iraq signed a temporary agreement with the Kurdish government and plans to increase oil exports to Turkey by 300 thousand barrels a day. Next year Iraq is going to increase production from 2.5 million to 3.2 million barrels a day. As we have noted in previous overviews, if the price is below $64-68 a barrel, the majority of world’s oil deposits may be operating at a loss.
Coffee price fell amid expectations of rainy weather in Brazil. Moreover, Vietnam has announced about the ability to cultivate almost the same amount of Robusta coffee as Arabica coffee produced by Brazil, if having the effective demand. The Vietnamese Robusta crop forecast in 2015/2016 amounts to 44-50 million bags (60kg). The coffee crop in Brazil in the same season is estimated to range from 40 to 53 million bags. Previously, Vietnam occupied approx 20% of the world coffee market, and Brazil – about one third.
Free Reports:
Gold price has risen considerably and can demonstrate a substantial weekly growth over past 10 months. Note that there was no significant news affecting the gold price advance. On the contrary, the Swiss National Bank announcement was added by the ECB statement saying it is not planning to purchase gold and raise gold reverses.
Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets