Technical Sentiment: Bearish

Key Takeaways

• S. Non-Farm Employment Change came out at 214K, below the consensus;
• S. Unemployment rate dropped to 5.8%. Average Hourly Earnings rose only 0.1%
• USD/JPY appears to be exhausting, with a double top reversal pattern confirming an overall weakness in the uptrend.

Greenback bulls were hoping for a larger Non-Farm Employment number, seeing how USD/JPY whipsawed back and forth post-NFP, only to end back down when the news was digested.

Technical Analysis

Strong one-sided trends are hard to sustain, especially when swings overextend, making pairs susceptible to correct even on positive news. This appears to be the case with USD/JPY at the moment. Buyers were hoping for stronger data and most likely priced it before the event itself. Now that news failed to rise up to expectations, take profit is very likely to ensue, offering a good short-term opportunity to sell USD/JPY.

From a technical perspective, price action signaled the initial weakness early on Thursday, when a large bearish engulfing bar formed on 4H chart; however it failed to confirm the pattern with a break below 114.05. Now that a double top has also formed at 115.50, coupled with extremely overbought conditions indicated by Stochastic on all major timeframes from 4H up to Monthly; USD/JPY is increasingly likely to continue lower in the short term.

Immediate support lies at 114.00/05. A break below this level will confirm our bearish scenario, paving the way towards 112.00 (with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on the last upswing strengthening the area) and possibly even 110.00 within a couple of weeks. The latter represents a strong support confluence formed around 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages on 4H, coupled with support trendline from recent higher lows.

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Prepared by Alex, Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets