US Dollar Speculators raised bullish positions for 3rd out of last 4 weeks

November 23, 2014

By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators pushed their overall US dollar bullish bets higher last week after a slight decrease the previous week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $46.45 billion as of Tuesday November 18th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$2.46 billion from the $43.99 billion total long position that was registered on November 11th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar’s aggregate bullish level remains in a strong position with gains three out of the last four weeks and situated above the +$40 billion level for a seventh consecutive week. According to Reuters, the current $46.45 billion bullish position is the highest USD position since 2008. Each of the individually tracked currencies have now had a net bearish position versus the dollar also for a seventh week (see data below).

 

Overall Speculative Net US Dollar Contracts

In terms of total net speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts increased for a fourth straight week last week to +393,529 contracts as of Tuesday November 18th. This was a change by +20,971 contracts from the total of +372,558 contracts as of Tuesday November 11th. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

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Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes: One Sided – All currencies have net bearish position versus the USD for 7th week

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets last week in favor of the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the Mexican Peso while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen and the New Zealand dollar.


Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

  • Euro positions dropped by -4,837 contracts after a rebound the previous week. Eurofx positions are highly bearish and have remained over the -160,000 contracts level for four consecutive weeks. The EURUSD exchange rate was over the 1.2500 level on Tuesday Nov 18th although finished the week off on a decline by over 1% to trade under 1.2400
  • British pound sterling positions decreased for a 7th week and to a new most bearish level since September of 2013. The GBPUSD spot exchange rate saw a slight decline to end the week with the price closing near the 1.5650 level. The GBPUSD has now closed lower for the past five weeks
  • Japanese yen bets fell again last week for a third straight week and to the lowest level in six weeks. The USDJPY exchange rate continued to strengthen sharply for a 5th week and ended the week over the 117 level
  • Swiss franc bets edged up last week by +559 contracts although the franc positions remain near their lowest levels since June 2013. The USDCHF pair closed the week over 1% higher and right below the 0.9700 exchange rate
  • Canadian dollar positions edged higher last week with net positions falling below the -20,000 level. The USDCAD exchange rate ended the week lower (-0.50%) with the price coming in just below the 1.1250 major level
  • Australian dollar net positions edged very slightly higher for a second week. The AUDUSD finished the week lower (-0.88%) with the exchange rate near the 0.8675 level
  • New Zealand dollar net positions edged lower last week (-258 contracts) and the net position remains slightly bearish overall for a 7th week. The NZDUSD exchange rate ended the week a bit lower (-0.30%) and just below the 0.7900 level
  • Mexican peso positions edged slightly higher last week (+640 contracts). Peso speculator positions have been on the bearish side now for eight straight weeks and remain just below the -30,000 level. The USDMXN exchange rate ended the week higher and at the 13.5974 level

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday November 18th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
10/14/2014 434873 60158 215500 -155342 -9130
10/21/2014 439863 60188 219559 -159371 -4029
10/28/2014 441369 59054 224761 -165707 -6336
11/04/2014 465332 59566 238587 -179021 -13314
11/11/2014 463976 60454 224347 -163893 15128
11/18/2014 465168 58048 226778 -168730 -4837

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
10/14/2014 138471 43116 45953 -2837 -1762
10/21/2014 135766 36567 41052 -4485 -1648
10/28/2014 138661 40718 46965 -6247 -1762
11/04/2014 144215 43289 50751 -7462 -1215
11/11/2014 151660 40661 53552 -12891 -5429
11/18/2014 166966 42865 65694 -22829 -9938

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
10/14/2014 212420 22839 123986 -101147 11404
10/21/2014 185412 26634 98372 -71738 29409
10/28/2014 184120 23883 91282 -67399 4339
11/04/2014 207974 37917 109568 -71651 -4252
11/11/2014 227576 47271 129834 -82563 -10912
11/18/2014 238898 46612 139066 -92454 -9891

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
10/14/2014 60968 11113 28666 -17553 -5134
10/21/2014 55550 7643 25505 -17862 -309
10/28/2014 57006 6887 27170 -20283 -2421
11/04/2014 59699 7844 28065 -20221 62
11/11/2014 61280 8752 31427 -22675 -2454
11/18/2014 60718 9142 31258 -22116 559

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
10/14/2014 104060 35688 51855 -16167 -8715
10/21/2014 102170 28837 50371 -21534 -5367
10/28/2014 99309 26093 47498 -21405 129
11/04/2014 104720 29627 49042 -19415 1990
11/11/2014 108445 32668 54514 -21846 -2431
11/18/2014 106914 32082 51599 -19517 2329

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
10/14/2014 115941 14367 44638 -30271 -3785
10/21/2014 115985 13951 45460 -31509 -1238
10/28/2014 120071 17446 51297 -33851 -2342
11/04/2014 123342 14595 52863 -38268 -4417
11/11/2014 123726 12896 50923 -38027 241
11/18/2014 117859 9522 47124 -37602 425

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
10/14/2014 21317 9171 11555 -2384 -2284
10/21/2014 21311 8526 10858 -2332 52
10/28/2014 22023 8506 12404 -3898 -1566
11/04/2014 23716 9737 13846 -4109 -211
11/11/2014 19809 9244 10233 -989 3120
11/18/2014 19907 9134 10381 -1247 -258

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
10/14/2014 139036 39798 45561 -5763 1820
10/21/2014 138193 30087 51211 -21124 -15361
10/28/2014 144016 26832 53675 -26843 -5719
11/04/2014 159857 30218 56808 -26590 253
11/11/2014 167364 29393 59067 -29674 -3084
11/18/2014 167389 31305 60339 -29034 640

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News

10 years ago
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