Speculators push USD bullish positions up for 2nd week, Euro positions continue to fall

November 9, 2014

By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators added to their overall US dollar bullish bets last week for a second straight week and to the highest level of its current bullish cycle.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $44.38 billion as of Tuesday November 4th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$1.99 billion from the $42.39 billion total long position that was registered on October 28th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar’s aggregate bullish position remains in a very strong state and above the +$40 billion level for a fifth straight week while each of the individual tracked currencies have now had a net bearish position versus the dollar for a fifth week.

 

Overall Speculative Net US Dollar Contracts

In terms of total speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts advanced higher last week to +366,737 contracts as of Tuesday November 4th. This was a change by +21,104 contracts from the total of +345,633 contracts as of Tuesday October 28th. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

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Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes: One Sided – All currencies have net bearish position versus the USD for 5th week

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets last week in favor of the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and the Mexican Peso while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar.

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

  • Euro positions fell further for a 5th straight week and to a new lowest level in the downturn at -179,021 contracts. The EURUSD exchange rate declined for a 3rd straight weekly close to fall under the 1.2500 level
  • British pound sterling positions also dropped last week for a 5th week and overall positions remain slightly bearish (-7,462) although getting slightly more bearish each week. The GBPUSD spot exchange rate ended the week on the decline with a lower weekly close for a 3rd week and situated below the 1.5900 level
  • Japanese yen bets fell last week after rising the previous four weeks. The yen, however, got crushed to end the week as the Bank of Japan expanding QE program weighs heavily on the currency. The USDJPY exchange rate ended the week over the 114 level for the first time since 2007
  • Swiss franc bets were virtually unchanged last week with a +62 contract gain. The Franc positions (-20,221) are right near their lowest level since June 2013. The USDCHF pair closed the weekly slightly higher by +0.29% and up for a 3rd week
  • Canadian dollar positions edged higher last week for a second week although remain bearish. The USDCAD exchange rate ended the week higher (+0.54%) with the rate just above the 1.1300 major level
  • Australian dollar net positions dropped for a ninth week last week to a new most bearish Aussie position since March 11th. The AUDUSD finished the week sharply lower (-1.85%) with the exchange rate now below the 0.8700 level
  • New Zealand dollar net positions fell very slightly last week (-211 contracts) and positions remain bearish overall for a 5th week. The NZDUSD exchange rate declined for a third week by approximately -0.44% to end the week near the 0.7750 level
  • Mexican peso positions edged higher last week (+253 contracts). The peso spec positions have been on the bearish side now for six straight weeks while the USDMXN exchange rate ended the week above 13.5000 on continued USD strength

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday November 4th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/30/2014 409986 67030 204555 -137525 4440
10/07/2014 425656 61467 207679 -146212 -8687
10/14/2014 434873 60158 215500 -155342 -9130
10/21/2014 439863 60188 219559 -159371 -4029
10/28/2014 441369 59054 224761 -165707 -6336
11/04/2014 465332 59566 238587 -179021 -13314

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/30/2014 132369 54243 50654 3589 4639
10/07/2014 129666 46503 47578 -1075 -4664
10/14/2014 138471 43116 45953 -2837 -1762
10/21/2014 135766 36567 41052 -4485 -1648
10/28/2014 138661 40718 46965 -6247 -1762
11/04/2014 144215 43289 50751 -7462 -1215

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/30/2014 239477 29910 150788 -120878 -15456
10/07/2014 223255 24837 137388 -112551 8327
10/14/2014 212420 22839 123986 -101147 11404
10/21/2014 185412 26634 98372 -71738 29409
10/28/2014 184120 23883 91282 -67399 4339
11/04/2014 207974 37917 109568 -71651 -4252

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/30/2014 57223 11998 24555 -12557 818
10/07/2014 60516 15509 27928 -12419 138
10/14/2014 60968 11113 28666 -17553 -5134
10/21/2014 55550 7643 25505 -17862 -309
10/28/2014 57006 6887 27170 -20283 -2421
11/04/2014 59699 7844 28065 -20221 62

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/30/2014 89376 33014 37580 -4566 -7630
10/07/2014 100900 39174 46626 -7452 -2886
10/14/2014 104060 35688 51855 -16167 -8715
10/21/2014 102170 28837 50371 -21534 -5367
10/28/2014 99309 26093 47498 -21405 129
11/04/2014 104720 29627 49042 -19415 1990

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/30/2014 118488 43193 45210 -2017 -10364
10/07/2014 129561 31601 58087 -26486 -24469
10/14/2014 115941 14367 44638 -30271 -3785
10/21/2014 115985 13951 45460 -31509 -1238
10/28/2014 120071 17446 51297 -33851 -2342
11/04/2014 123342 14595 52863 -38268 -4417

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/30/2014 18209 10092 10028 64 -1777
10/07/2014 19214 10052 10152 -100 -164
10/14/2014 21317 9171 11555 -2384 -2284
10/21/2014 21311 8526 10858 -2332 52
10/28/2014 22023 8506 12404 -3898 -1566
11/04/2014 23716 9737 13846 -4109 -211

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/30/2014 148678 48864 56178 -7314 -17818
10/07/2014 147139 43781 51364 -7583 -269
10/14/2014 139036 39798 45561 -5763 1820
10/21/2014 138193 30087 51211 -21124 -15361
10/28/2014 144016 26832 53675 -26843 -5719
11/04/2014 159857 30218 56808 -26590 253

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

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