By IFCMarkets

Good afternoon, dear traders. Today in the afternoon we expect the release of two US macroeconomic indicators: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (14:30, CET) and CB Consumer Confidence (18:00, CET). Core Durable Goods Orders m/m is published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, and does not include the volatile transportation component: orders for cars and aircrafts. The second indicator completes the domestic demand data and is calculated directly on the basis of the survey. CB Consumer Confidence index provides an estimate of the consumer spending growth and permits to assess the work force availability, whether there is a favorable business environment and economic conditions. As both indicators allow us to estimate the domestic demand, we expect the strongest market reaction to Goods Orders. Demand is considered to be one of the main factors for the US economy attractiveness for investors. Therefore, this data can have a significant impact on the strengthening or weakening of the American currency against other liquid instruments in the Forex market.

Here we consider the USD/JPY behavior on the D1 chart. The price entered the green zone outside the weekly triangle – the first sign of a new trend birth. ParabolicSAR confirms the trend direction. There is no contradiction on the part of RSI-Bars, which signal has already been formed by the growing channel. We will consider the oscillator resistance intersection at 81.092% as a following confirmation signal. At the moment the price fractal resistance is being formed at 104.266. Once this happens, a pending buy order can be placed above this level. Currently, the mark is confirmed by the upper DonchianChannel boundary (13). The preliminary risk limitation is recommended to be placed below the last resistance at 102.092. This level is confirmed by the Bill Williams fractal and D1 trend line.

Note that the Japanese Yen trading volumes still do not confirm the new trend formation. The daily volumes of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are presented on the chart above. We can see that currently the volumes are still in the sideways. We will expect the final trend confirmation after overcoming a new high of 150,000 contracts. You can monitor the trading volumes for this currency pair by clicking here.

After position opening, Trailing Stop is to be moved after the ParabolicSAR values, near the next fractal trough. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Dear traders. You can see the detailed report of the author’s account by clicking here.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets