Forex Speculators sharply raised US Dollar bets last week as Euro bets dropped to 2-year low

August 10, 2014

By CountingPips.com

 

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large trader and speculators sharply raised their bullish bets in favor of the US dollar for a third straight week and to the highest total contracts level since March. Euro bets, meanwhile, continued to decline last week and fell to the lowest level since August 2012.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had a total US dollar position of +129,190 contracts as of Tuesday August 5th, according to the latest currency data from the CFTC. This was a weekly change of +115,893 contracts from the total position of +13,297 contracts that was registered on July 29th. The total US dollar contracts calculation is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

The jump in the US dollar position last week marked the highest overall level since March 4th when bullish positions equaled +134,006 contracts.

 

Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators decreased bets for all of the major currencies except the US dollar with many significant weekly position changes.

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Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

  • Euro positions continued to fall sharply last week and pushed euro positions over the -128k level. The euro speculative level is at the most bearish since August of 2012 as there has been three straight weeks of decline near -20,000 contracts
  • British pound sterling positions dropped for a fifth straight week to the lowest level since early February as the GBPUSD exchange rate continued its downtrend to under 1.6900
  • Japanese yen bets fell sharply last week (-22,330) as overall bearish positions advanced to over -95,000 contracts. This is the most bearish level since March 11th
  • Swiss franc bets declined for the 3rd straight week and to the most bearish level in over a year (since June 11th 2013)
  • Canadian dollar positions decreased slightly after advancing for the previous seven weeks in a row
  • Australian dollar net positions dropped by -6,306 contracts as traders cut back on their Aussie long positions
  • New Zealand dollar net positions edged slightly lower last week as both long positions (-4,603) and short positions (-3,814) fell for the week
  • Mexican peso positions fell sharply last week by -44,682 contracts as traders unwound their positions. Overall bullish positions stood at +32,433 which is the lowest long peso level since April

This latest COT data is through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/01/2014 291488 52665 113441 -60776 -3273
07/08/2014 294381 51595 110860 -59265 1511
07/15/2014 310661 59506 122352 -62846 -3581
07/22/2014 339706 58142 146965 -88823 -25977
07/29/2014 356865 56562 164637 -108075 -19252
08/05/2014 379004 55179 183926 -128747 -20672

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/01/2014 255911 99929 43517 56412 6661
07/08/2014 254788 86614 44975 41639 -14773
07/15/2014 255115 85983 47213 38770 -2869
07/22/2014 241155 71792 44295 27497 -11273
07/29/2014 237411 75370 50460 24910 -2587
08/05/2014 230801 66437 54316 12121 -12789

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/01/2014 156480 18739 77425 -58686 12537
07/08/2014 157710 11174 77549 -66375 -7689
07/15/2014 155127 8385 71333 -62948 3427
07/22/2014 162029 11979 65895 -53916 9032
07/29/2014 172210 7828 80897 -73069 -19153
08/05/2014 192906 9896 105295 -95399 -22330

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/01/2014 35221 9731 16991 -7260 -1888
07/08/2014 35053 9136 15949 -6813 447
07/15/2014 35007 8799 15061 -6262 551
07/22/2014 38359 9642 17022 -7380 -1118
07/29/2014 44022 8665 20429 -11764 -4384
08/05/2014 57238 9247 28100 -18853 -7089

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/01/2014 111438 44755 42060 2695 8015
07/08/2014 128555 58245 47950 10295 7600
07/15/2014 129787 60353 44732 15621 5326
07/22/2014 129188 62078 41497 20581 4960
07/29/2014 122619 56459 33768 22691 2110
08/05/2014 115261 48944 27489 21455 -1236

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/01/2014 114918 76598 37719 38879 5416
07/08/2014 101860 66705 30102 36603 -2276
07/15/2014 105209 70881 31138 39743 3140
07/22/2014 109341 72170 33377 38793 -950
07/29/2014 106836 69348 29742 39606 813
08/05/2014 98196 60860 27560 33300 -6306

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/01/2014 33455 26563 17578 8985 2833
07/08/2014 36123 26750 12334 14416 5431
07/15/2014 32879 26570 11117 15453 1037
07/22/2014 32728 26028 10896 15132 -321
07/29/2014 30531 23552 8263 15289 157
08/05/2014 25603 18949 4449 14500 -789

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/01/2014 129425 85387 15825 69562 593
07/08/2014 126231 82777 13966 68811 -751
07/15/2014 131108 86707 17070 69637 826
07/22/2014 142254 98823 19689 79134 9497
07/29/2014 145184 100551 23436 77115 -2019
08/05/2014 143236 77535 45102 32433 -44682

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News

10 years ago
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