Currency Speculators added to US Dollar bets for 2nd week. Euro, Yen fall

August 31, 2014

By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators raised their US dollar bullish bets last week for a second straight week to a new highest level since June 2013.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $32.92 billion as of Tuesday August 26th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$2.52 billion from the $30.4 billion total long position that was registered on August 19th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The aggregate US dollar bullish position has risen for two straight weeks and for five out of the last six weeks. The advance in the US dollar bullish position marks a new highest level since June 4th 2013 when speculators were long by $39.12 billion.

Overall Speculative Net Contracts

In terms of total speculative contracts, overall dollar contracts slid a bit last week to +155,008 contracts as of Tuesday August 26th. This was a change by -4,999 contracts from the total of +160,007 contracts as of Tuesday August 19th. The total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Free Reports:

Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter





Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.




Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators raised their bets last week in favor of the British pound sterling, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso while decreasing weekly bets for the euro,  Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar.

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

  • Euro positions saw renewed bearishness last week and fell for the sixth time out of the last seven weeks. The spec positions are now at the lowest level since July 24 2012 when positions equaled -155,066 contracts
  • British pound sterling positions rose slightly after falling the previous week.
  • Japanese yen bets declined sharply last week (-15,620) to fall for a second week. Yen bets have declined four out of the last five weeks and to the lowest level since January
  • Swiss franc bets edged higher for a third straight week although remain bearish. Franc positions have been on the bearish side now for ten straight weeks
  • Canadian dollar positions fell for a fourth straight week and as positions dropped to the lowest position since July 1st
  • Australian dollar net positions advanced last week for a second week. Aussie long positions are now over the +40,000 contracts threshold and at the highest bullish level since April 2013
  • New Zealand dollar net positions continued to decline last week for a fourth straight week as net positions fell to the lowest level since July 1st
  • Mexican peso positions gained sharply last week to rise for a second week after falling into bearish territory on August 12th

This latest COT data is through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/22/2014 339706 58142 146965 -88823 -25977
07/29/2014 356865 56562 164637 -108075 -19252
08/05/2014 379004 55179 183926 -128747 -20672
08/12/2014 376424 51596 177613 -126017 2730
08/19/2014 396460 56774 195599 -138825 -12808
08/26/2014 402709 53989 204646 -150657 -11832

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/22/2014 241155 71792 44295 27497 -11273
07/29/2014 237411 75370 50460 24910 -2587
08/05/2014 230801 66437 54316 12121 -12789
08/12/2014 223719 65348 46549 18799 6678
08/19/2014 237291 72230 58943 13287 -5512
08/26/2014 233435 71002 55535 15467 2180

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/22/2014 162029 11979 65895 -53916 9032
07/29/2014 172210 7828 80897 -73069 -19153
08/05/2014 192906 9896 105295 -95399 -22330
08/12/2014 192140 12518 93615 -81097 14302
08/19/2014 203180 17976 105247 -87271 -6174
08/26/2014 218009 19512 122403 -102891 -15620

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/22/2014 38359 9642 17022 -7380 -1118
07/29/2014 44022 8665 20429 -11764 -4384
08/05/2014 57238 9247 28100 -18853 -7089
08/12/2014 51981 5247 22606 -17359 1494
08/19/2014 50414 6174 21666 -15492 1867
08/26/2014 53761 7466 20505 -13039 2453

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/22/2014 129188 62078 41497 20581 4960
07/29/2014 122619 56459 33768 22691 2110
08/05/2014 115261 48944 27489 21455 -1236
08/12/2014 108979 44053 26055 17998 -3457
08/19/2014 113301 41844 34563 7281 -10717
08/26/2014 108441 38522 32859 5663 -1618

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/22/2014 109341 72170 33377 38793 -950
07/29/2014 106836 69348 29742 39606 813
08/05/2014 98196 60860 27560 33300 -6306
08/12/2014 94030 54691 25145 29546 -3754
08/19/2014 103432 65747 29173 36574 7028
08/26/2014 107819 71658 29720 41938 5364

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/22/2014 32728 26028 10896 15132 -321
07/29/2014 30531 23552 8263 15289 157
08/05/2014 25603 18949 4449 14500 -789
08/12/2014 25214 17913 4484 13429 -1071
08/19/2014 24048 16796 4764 12032 -1397
08/26/2014 23619 16405 4564 11841 -191

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/22/2014 142254 98823 19689 79134 9497
07/29/2014 145184 100551 23436 77115 -2019
08/05/2014 143236 77535 45102 32433 -44682
08/12/2014 154694 51933 51974 -41 -32474
08/19/2014 141175 56207 43800 12407 12448
08/26/2014 141665 71680 35010 36670 24263

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News

10 years ago
InvestMacro

InvestMacro is a finance website dedicated to helping investors make better informed decisions through educational content and products