Large Currency Traders edged speculative US Dollar bets lower last week

July 20, 2014

By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large trader and speculator bets for the US dollar edged slightly lower through July 15th.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $9.94 billion as of Tuesday July 15th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$0.40 billion from the $10.34 billion total long position that was registered on July 8th, according to the calculation by Reuters that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The aggregate US dollar position has declined for four out of the last five weeks although the the overall dollar standing has now remained on the bullish side for ten straight weeks after turning bullish on May 13th.

Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators bet in favor of the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso while there were weekly decreases for just the euro and the British pound sterling.

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This latest COT data is through Tuesday July 15th and provides a glimpse of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

  • Canadian dollar positions improved for a fifth straight week and to the highest level since February 2013
  • Euro positions decreased last week and pushed euro positions to their lowest level (or most bearish) since May 2013. Euro bets are almost at the same bearish level vs the USD as the Japanese yen.
  • British pound sterling positions slipped for second consecutive week to the lowest level since June 10th
  • Japanese yen positions edged higher last week after a decline the previous week. Overall speculator positions and the USDJPY exchange rate have seen subdued movements recently
  • Australian dollar net positions pushed higher last week with bullish positions totaling almost +40,000 contracts (highest since April 2013)
  • New Zealand dollar positions rose for a fourth straight week as the overall bullish positions surpassed +15,000 contracts for the first time since June 10th

Please see individual currency charts and more data below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/10/2014 331636 43739 100924 -57185 -24160
06/17/2014 285489 51405 113240 -61835 -4650
06/24/2014 291244 55062 112565 -57503 4332
07/01/2014 291488 52665 113441 -60776 -3273
07/08/2014 294381 51595 110860 -59265 1511
07/15/2014 310661 59506 122352 -62846 -3581

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/10/2014 271602 85202 49360 35842 868
06/17/2014 250231 100434 47838 52596 16754
06/24/2014 254369 98098 48347 49751 -2845
07/01/2014 255911 99929 43517 56412 6661
07/08/2014 254788 86614 44975 41639 -14773
07/15/2014 255115 85983 47213 38770 -2869

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/10/2014 201094 11893 94055 -82162 -7944
06/17/2014 153007 17832 85870 -68038 14124
06/24/2014 148257 10325 81548 -71223 -3185
07/01/2014 156480 18739 77425 -58686 12537
07/08/2014 157710 11174 77549 -66375 -7689
07/15/2014 155127 8385 71333 -62948 3427

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/10/2014 52445 9615 12645 -3030 -1018
06/17/2014 32259 15296 11776 3520 6550
06/24/2014 33599 9069 14441 -5372 -8892
07/01/2014 35221 9731 16991 -7260 -1888
07/08/2014 35053 9136 15949 -6813 447
07/15/2014 35007 8799 15061 -6262 551

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/10/2014 125832 30303 54411 -24108 -1377
06/17/2014 132209 34582 56115 -21533 2575
06/24/2014 103193 40595 45915 -5320 16213
07/01/2014 111438 44755 42060 2695 8015
07/08/2014 128555 58245 47950 10295 7600
07/15/2014 129787 60353 44732 15621 5326

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/10/2014 128984 62141 33894 28247 6720
06/17/2014 99400 61078 34049 27029 -1218
06/24/2014 101998 65612 32149 33463 6434
07/01/2014 114918 76598 37719 38879 5416
07/08/2014 101860 66705 30102 36603 -2276
07/15/2014 105209 70881 31138 39743 3140

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/10/2014 32946 20401 3546 16855 -676
06/17/2014 28467 21671 17938 3733 -13122
06/24/2014 31415 24855 18703 6152 2419
07/01/2014 33455 26563 17578 8985 2833
07/08/2014 36123 26750 12334 14416 5431
07/15/2014 32879 26570 11117 15453 1037

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
06/10/2014 200202 106566 16363 90203 4187
06/17/2014 135017 91227 22152 69075 -21128
06/24/2014 128333 84943 15974 68969 -106
07/01/2014 129425 85387 15825 69562 593
07/08/2014 126231 82777 13966 68811 -751
07/15/2014 131108 86707 17070 69637 826

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News

11 years ago
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