InvestMacro Forex News

By David Banister, ActiveTradingPartners.com

After a few years of testing with both ETF’s and then individual stocks, we rolled out our MRM (momentum reversal method) platform at my ATP subscription service in November 2011.  This is now beginning to get alot of attention in the trading community as in addition to the ATP service, I have shared some of the real time MRM type plays online with some very top notch traders.

In essence, my work revolves around crowd psychology or what I call “Crowd Behavior”.  If there is one thing in the stock markets that never changes, it’s how crowds react to news, events, and also how they over-react more importantly.  My MRM system helps to define where the crowd may be over-reacting on the upside and also obviously the downside of a move in a security.  Knowing roughly where that upside and downside exhaustion point may be, can obviously be a huge tool in a traders tool box.

Let’s be honest, the Holy Grail of investing and or position trading would be to buy low and sell high as often as possible with as few mistakes as possible right?  The ATP MRM crowd based timing method is what that aims to do, a lofty goal but one we feel we are achieving on a regular basis.  The major problem most investors have is selling out of a position at the extreme areas of “Pain”, where your emotions take over and you cant take the paper loss any longer and you sell.  The other issue is chasing stocks higher because the adrenaline and excitement of owning a stock that is rushing higher is too hard to pass up.

Both of those investor psychology based decisions are made in panic buy and panic sell modes.  That leads to a recipe for disaster for a trading account over time.  Instead, what we want to do is the opposite right? We want to calmly buy shares in a stock that has become oversold due to emotional responses from the crowd, and sell into a huge rally where the crowd has become overly exuberant.  What if you could do that on a regular basis all the time with cool and calm nerves of steel?

Our MRM trading system at ATP allows us as best as we can to cooly and calmly enter into oversold stocks right near the apex of the lows, and then quietly exit into the rush as the stock reverses back to the upside.

Recent examples include the ETF NUGT.  This is a 300% leveraged ETF to the Gold Stock Index.  Now we all know the Gold Stocks have been under severe pressure of late as the GDX ETF has cratered from its highs over the last many months.  My MRM system though kept us out of the gold stocks, until very recently when we saw the idea entry point for a swing.  Based on the GDX falling into the 49 and below level, my MRM targets said we were at an extreme emotional bottom using my 1 day, 3 day, and weekly crowd indicators.  We therefore entered calmly into NUGT at 15.61, and within 48 hours we saw that ETF rally to 17.81!  We sold at 16.80 and 17.10 for 1/2 and 1/2 tranches to pocket 7-10% gains inside of 2 days.   The move from 15.61 to 17.81 was a 14% move inside of 48 hours!!  We also knew to sell into that rally because just a few short days later the NUGT had fallen all the way back to 15.30 per share.  My MRM method then said 15.31 was another entry buy, and 24 hours later NUGT was up another 7%!  So in the span of 6 trading days, MRM gave out an 8.5% blended return, and then followed it up with another 7% return.  Thats 15.5% of return with low downside risk in 6 trading days on just one ETF position!

We usually apply this type of work to MRM Positions that we actually intend to position ourselves in weeks not days.  However, if we do get extreme moves in a short period of time, we always look to trim back some of those profits in the position.  The samples above are what I call “Active Trades” at my ATP service, these are intended to days not weeks in holding period.  Keep in mind alot of our work is in an Active MRM portfolio where again, we are holding swing positions for weeks and not days, so it does not require as much daily work by our partners.

Some additional recent samples include CVV which we entered twice for profits inside of a few months.  We banked 13-16% gains on one swing, waited weeks and entered again.  The stock actually dropped below our MRM entry and we held on knowing that it was likely bottoming out amidst panic emotional selling at 10.66 per share.  A few weeks later our patience paid off as the stock rose to 13.80 per share.  Most traders would have taken the loss below $11 per share, and missed the reversal back up for 25% or more.  When you take a loss that way, you must then replace that position with another trade that gains 25% or more in this case.  MRM helps to avoid panic selling, and often to take advantage of panic drops in a stock to buy more.

Consider joining us for 90 days trial period and play along.  We provide all the alerts in real time via Email and internet posting. We provide daily updates on all positions and 24/7 Email access to me for any questions. By David Banister, ActiveTradingPartners.com

Source: ForexYard

The Greenback showed its strength versus the Euro after a report showed growth in the U.S Manufacturing sector.It was quite the opposite for the Euro as the 17-nation currency had a similar report with weaker figures.

The Euro slipped as low as $1,3276, before showing some fight to reach back to $1,3334,a few ticks up from the figure reach during Friday’s late session.

The Institute of Supply Management’s Index on U.S manufacturing activity appreciated to 53.4 for the month of March, a result slightly above the expected. The single currency depreciated after the Euro-zone PMI showed signs of weakening for manufacturing activity for the 17-nation currency worsened in the month of March. The recent figures could cause further concern into the financial stability of the Euro-zone as the currency has nothing to show for its gains of late.

Two important economic events that will keep investor’s eyes on the markets is the European Central Bank’s monthly policy meeting and Friday’s highly anticipated U.S Non-Farm Payrolls.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Alvi Erine

The key to success in forex is building a trading system that suits your needs and forex strategies that fulfil your goals. So the first thing a trader needs to be absolutely clear about is “What is my goal?” Clearly and specifically define your goal. To make loads and loads of money is a Forex dream not a forex goal. “How much money?” and “How fast do I want to make money?” are the first basic questions you need to ask yourself to figure out what you want from the Forex market. Based on these two answers, strategies can be classified as Investment Based Strategies and Day trading Based Strategies.

Investment Based Strategies

If you plan to stay and trade in forex for a longer period of time and your goal is more than short term profits, your strategies have to be investment oriented. These strategies will give you long term financial stability and consistent revenue over time. Risk management is the key in these forex strategies. You need to have a wider grasp about currency trading and fundamental trading strategies which are more complex than simple trading strategies are suited for investment based trading systems.

Day Trading Based Strategies

Day trading strategies focus on making profits from the intra-day currency fluctuations without taking into account the long term market trends. These rely heavily on technical analysis and forex software systems.

Choosing a forex strategy is matter of personal discretion. You can use existing strategies or create your own strategies. The aim should be to build a good profit generating trading system. No matter what strategy one may choose the three basic principles that must be upheld by your strategy are:

Buy Low Sell High

The patience to follow this fundamental rule will never fail to do you good. This can be done on any charting frame even daily and weekly spreads. Try and recognise the pattern of fluctuation in a currency pair. Place orders when the rates are in lower range and take profit orders when the rates are at the highest. Then patiently wait. Patience is the key in trading.

Money Management

Managing your money well means taking care of all possibilities. Risk only as much as you can afford to lose. Extreme leverage is a bad idea. Start with minimum amounts and always use demo-accounts for testing and learning whether it is a new trading system or forex software.

Emotional Composure

Indecisiveness, fear, greed, impatience and lack of emotional stability are common trading psychological pitfalls and can ruin even the best of strategies. Practice on a demo-account and risk management can help you keep these factors in control. Make sure you are comfortable with your strategy and are prepared for every possibility.
The forex strategies you ultimately choose to work with should be technically sound and yet it should be the one you personally find convincing and most intuitive to use.

About the Author

Alvi Erine is an experienced foreign exchange broker and works for YouTradeFX that offers the best forex strategies, platforms and forex software for online currency trading. Create a demo or live account here to learn all the tricks and execute a profitable deal. Visit today!

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – The pressure on the single currency was evident during the US session as it plunged below the 1.3300 levels to print a fresh low of 1.3277. It has come above the 1.3300 levels and is trading around 1.3310, down about 0.38% for the day. The support may be seen at 1.3280 and below at 1.3230.

The resistance may be seen at 1.3325 and above at 1.3380. The ISM data was released today which came better than expected at 53.4. The consensus was 53. Construction spending in US decreased by 1.1% against the expected rise 0.6%.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
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Article by Investment U

Healthcare reform could be a minefield for Big Pharma in the long run.

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act – less fondly known as “Obamacare” – was the big story to close out the month of March, as the Supreme Court officially took the case.

In an effort to figure out which way the vote was going to swing, the media analyzed every word, pause and twitch the justices made. Though all of that heavy-duty analysis doesn’t actually prove anything; while the Court has likely already decided the healthcare mandate’s fate one way or the other, “We the People” probably won’t find out until June.

Considering the political left’s repeated complaints about Solicitor General Donald Verrilli Jr. and Deputy Attorney General Edwin S. Kneedler’s admittedly painful performance in explaining and defending the law’s constitutionality, many legal beagles and casual observers alike believe “Obamacare” has less than a glowing chance of standing.

But if they’re wrong and the Supreme Court rules in its favor, there’s one set of stocks that’s going to suffer miserably in the long run.

That sector would be pharmaceuticals, both big and small. And there’s a little-known reason why that’s so…

How the Rest of the World Gets its Healthcare so Cheaply

It’s a commonly known fact that U.S. citizens pay a hefty price for their prescription medication compared to just about any other country.

In December 2009, D. Brad Wright, then a doctoral candidate at the University of North Carolina, looked into the price differentiations of Plavix, Nexium and Lipitor, all important drugs designed to treat common but serious health complications. He concluded that Europeans and Canadians often pay less than half of what their U.S. counterparts are forced to shell out.

That’s definitely a sad story (for the United States, at least), but there’s a twist to it that few people fully understand…

The real reason Americans pay so much more than New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, England, Germany, France, et al. is because – for better or worse – those countries all practice some form of socialized medicine. Because the governments pay the bulk of their citizens’ healthcare costs, they set very strict limits on just how much they’ll pay for medication.

And those limits lead to significant losses for the pharmaceutical companies that sell them. That makes sense, considering how much time and money it takes to bring drugs from theory to viability.

There are costly materials to work with, numerous tests to run, top-of-the-line facilities to maintain, the best and the brightest to hire and retain, and all of the other expenses naturally associated with running a business to pay for. In addition, clinical research can take an easy decade to complete… or they fail somewhere along the way, costing pharmaceutical companies millions and even billions in the process.

In short, there’s a reason why drugs are so expensive to buy.

It’s because they’re so expensive to make.

The Last Healthcare System Standing

The United States is one of the few – if not the only – major countries out there that allows pharmaceutical companies to set their own prices. So America is one of the few countries they actually make a profit off of… a profit they need in order to survive.

Writing for MedcineNet.com, Dr. Omudhome Ogbru explains it this way:

“In a nutshell, the price paid by a patient for a medication must cover the costs of developing new compounds that become approved drugs and compounds that fail to become drugs, as well as marketing, post-marketing studies, and a profit. The profit ensures that the company provides a return to investors. Profit is the incentive for the risk that the company takes. Without the promise of a reasonable profit, there is very little incentive for any company to develop new drugs.”

All in all, it’s fairly safe to say that, without the United States paying more than its fair share of costs, the rest of the world wouldn’t have it nearly so easy. But even that cushion can’t last very long if the Patient Protection and Affordable Act stands.

As it stands now, the law requires everybody to have health insurance by 2014, either from a private insurer or the government. And if the U.S. government is going to remain financially feasible for long under that added burden, it’s going to have to start implementing the same price limits that the rest of the world is already working with.

In that case, companies like Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT), Merck & Company, Inc. (NYSE: MRK), AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) and Novartis (NYSE: NVS) are all going to lose out big time before too long.

Good Investing,

Jeannette Di Louie

Article by Investment U

Article by Investment U

You can be a contrarian. Or you can be a victim. If you prefer the former, here are a few simple ways to invest in water.

“You can be a contrarian. Or you can be a victim.”
– Rick Rule

As Executive Editor of Investment U, I’m dedicated to providing you with the most sound investment philosophies and unique contrarian investment ideas on a daily basis.

And as our Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green wrote earlier this year, our newsletter’s aim is to provide you with “the best investment you can make in four minutes each day.”

In that light, I made some time to sit down with legendary resource expert Rick Rule at our 14^th Annual Investment U Conference two weeks ago. Rick is the Chairman and CEO of Global Resource Investments LTD – part of the Sprott Group of Companies.

Rick is known to be a fierce contrarian. So of course I was curious – as I’m sure many of you are – what he sees as the most contrarian investment right now.

His answer may surprise you…

“The most obvious contrarian investment that I see isn’t one that people are pessimistic on, it’s one that people ignore totally,” Rule said. “It requires patience, but that commodity – the most underpriced commodity that I see in the spectrum – is water.”

And Rick isn’t the only one who sees water as an intriguing opportunity right now. Our own emerging markets expert Carl Delfeld recently told Oxford Club members:

“During the last century, oil was at the heart of the global economy. Nearly every development in the financial news was somehow linked to its price and availability. But in the twenty-first century, I believe the price and supply of water will dominate the headlines.”

Carl also cites a World Bank estimate that global water demand will actually double every 20 years.

Who else is making a big bet on water? None other than T. Boone Pickens…

As Carl alluded to in his recent article in The Oxford Club’s Communiqué, Pickens – through a company he controls called Mesa Water L.P. – is the largest individual water owner in America.

So what’s so impressive about water?

Politics, Politics, Politics…

In his article, Carl mentions that governments heavily subsidize water prices and like to keep tight control over water supplies.

Hmm… Governments meddling in free markets? Who would have thunk it?

Rick, who’s based out of California, is especially knowledgeable about the situation in his own state.

“[Water is] delivered politically, which means the market doesn’t work. Which means ultimately the supply won’t work because it’s mismatched with demand. In California, we use water for such ‘intelligent’ things as growing rice in the desert and producing subsidized alfalfa.

“[Meanwhile] the highest and best use in the state of California is flushing toilets and brushing teeth. And yet we supply water to some farmers in California for prices in the range of $55-$60 an acre foot and we charge urban users $1600 per acre foot. But the delta between $50/acre foot and $1500/acre foot is a very, very, very interesting arbitrage – which is effectively political.

“People who have watched the movie ‘Chinatown’ understand something about the genesis of this politics. The takeover by the city of Los Angeles – fair and square by the way, purchasing it in the market – of the water in the Ojai Valley, united the agricultural community against urban users in the 1890s and 1900s. At that point in time, the state’s economy was predominantly agricultural and the political power base in the state was rural rather than urban.”

The result, according to Rick, is 85% of the state’s water resources being used to create 3% of the state’s GDP. An interesting market anomaly indeed…

But considering most investors don’t have the financial resources or the logistical ability to invest in actual water rights, how can average investors cash in on this arbitrage?

How to Invest in Water

“The simplest way to invest in water is to invest in water,” Rule said. “The most leveraged ways might involve the technologies. But that involves being right or not being right about selecting among the best technologies. What I prefer to do is either own water rights or own companies that own water rights. I prefer for my own investing portfolio to treat water itself as a resource.”

Rick also provides a few guidelines of what potential water investors should be looking for:

• Scarcity and Locality –“Water is very local because its heavy, it costs a lot to transport. When making a water investment, one must invest in water at a place where it’s scarce. There’s no particular point in owning a bunch of water in Northern British Columbia where your challenge is to make it go away.”
• Affordability –“The second thing it has to be, is in a place where it’s not only scarce, but where the market can afford to buy it. Unfortunately, owning water in Ethiopia or Eretria where the people can’t buy it, although they need it, doesn’t yield any economic return. So it has to be scarce and it has to be rich.”
• A Sense of the Politics – “And the third thing is that water has traditionally been allocated politically. So you have to have some sense that there is going to be the rule of law and that there is, eventually, going to be a rational social response to the political idiocy of allocating water to votes rather than the market.”

Illustrative Examples

Rick is prohibited by regulation to make specific recommendations, but he did tell us that the most opportunistic regions were places like the U.S. Southwest, Southern Australia, Italy, Greece and Spain.

He also provided a few illustrative examples (not recommendations, mind you) of the types of companies that offer a play on water rights. Here are a couple:

• J.G. Boswell (OTC: BWEL.PK) – Although it’s traded over the counter, it’s a 110-yr old company. It’s also the largest cotton farmer in the world and the largest tomato farmer in the world. It owns 2,000 acres of farmland and effectively 200,000 acres of pertinent water rights. Right now, the water is used to grow cotton and tomatoes…
• Limoneira (Nasdaq: LMNR) – The second example of a water rights company masquerading as a farming company is Limoneira. It’s the largest independent lemon producer and one of the largest avocado producers. According to Rick, they control the some of the most important undeveloped water rights in Ventura County.
• Pico Holdings (Nasdaq: PICO) – Pico is an acronym for Physicians Insurance Company of Ohio. Pico is a group of financial operators who took over insurance companies and have invested the float in a series of accretive transactions. Pico was the largest water rights owner in Arizona at one time and is currently the largest water rights owner in the state of Nevada.

There are also numerous mutual funds and ETFs that offer potent exposure to water rights and water technologies. So while “the herd” is loading into toxic bond funds and precious metals, investing in water as a resource may very well be the proverbial elephant in the room for well-educated contrarians like ourselves.

Good Investing,

Justin Dove

P.S. Rick clued me into an incredible – and better yet, totally free – resource for investors who want to learn more about the energy and resource industries. You’ll definitely want to bookmark this page…

To check out Sprott Global’s free Investment University lecture library along with other helpful resources, click here.

Article by Investment U

Article by Investment U

The upcoming dividend tax increase will most likely make dividend paying stocks cheaper, which means great buys for long-term investors.

The President’s budget was released last week, and it wants to get back to taxing dividends at ordinary income levels for individuals making more than $200,000 a year and couples making more than $250,000. The proposal, which returns the tax treatment of dividends back to policies in place before 2003, would raise an estimated $206.4 billion over 10 years.

This may not be the most opportune time for such a plan when everyone is looking to dividends for steady returns over those historically low Treasury yields.

Some fund managers and financial advisers are already preparing for a dividend tax hike due to a monumental federal deficit and public sentiment heavily favoring higher taxes for the rich.

Valuations Will Fall

Higher taxes would most likely make companies that pay dividends cheaper, experts say.

In the past, dividend-paying stocks have lagged non-paying companies for about six months after the tax increase, according to Ned Davis Research Group.

But analysts say that those investors with a long-term horizon might make out because of these declines.

“If history is any guide, this will provide a buying opportunity for the dividend-oriented investor,” said Linda Duessel, a Senior Equity Strategist at Federated Investors who specializes in equity income. She – like Investment U expert Marc Lichtenfeld – expects dividend-paying stocks to outperform their counterparts over the long term.

Also, take this statement from Matt McCormick, VP and Portfolio Manager at Bahl & Gaynor, into account: “My conclusion is this, if you see taxes go up… that’s going to impact the market to the downside… I think investors will go back into dividend-paying stocks to protect on the downside.”

Also Expect Increasing Dividends

Last year brought a record 22 dividend initiations by companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. There have been five so far in 2012. And analysts believe that an evitable dividend tax increase would push companies to return the record amounts of cash on their balance sheets back to the investors.

When dividend taxes were scheduled to return to earlier levels in 2010 – when there was a fear that the Bush-era tax cuts would expire – more than 100 companies declared special dividends that year to give back some cash to shareholders ahead of the planned tax change, according to Standard & Poor’s.

There’s a lot of space for a larger number and dollar amount of payments. While 397 S&P 500 companies pay dividends, the average since 1980 is 413 companies. And payments as a percentage of profits are only 30% now, versus a historical average of 52%, according to S&P.

All told, dividend spending by S&P 500 companies should increase 15% this year, estimates Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at S&P.

A Solid Play for Growing Dividends

I think the easiest way to take advantage of the changing landscape would be to buy a mutual fund focused on companies with growing dividends. Two that come to mind are the T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth (PRDGX) or Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX) funds. The T. Rowe Price fund ranks among the top one-quarter of its peers for 10-year performance. The Vanguard fund ranks among the top one-tenth.

Good Investing,

Jason Jenkins

Article by Investment U

Article by Investment U

In focus this week: Can MSFT take on AAPL, the first sign of the coming blood bath in bond funds, and of course, the SITFA.

First Up, MSFT

A recent Journal article described MSFT as gearing up to take on AAPL. According to a former employee, MSFT may be making the Xbox, a game console, the new primary focus of the company.

The Xbox, you head me correctly. A gaming console folks play games on.

It seems many Xbox users are already using the device to stream Netflix on their TVs now, and this little giant seems to have all kinds of possibilities in the media area.

Remember, media is where AAPL is headed next with AAPL TV. So maybe this isn’t as far-fetched as it seems.

If MSFT can market the new Xbox 720 as a media center PC, not just a game console, we may have something here. The Journal article says they could have the market to themselves.

MSFT moved their operating system genius David Cutler to the Xbox division in January. Cutler is the person responsible for Windows 2000 and everything at MSFT since has stemmed from the Windows 2000 program.

If MSFT can produce a branded computer like AAPL’s Mac, the box industry could get very interesting, very quickly.

This one definitely deserves to be followed very closely. Put it on your bogey boards.

The First Crack in Bond Funds

If you follow me here or in the IU Daily articles, you know I’ve been warning folks for some time to get out of any bond fund with leverage or with maturities over five years; both, in fact. Well, the first indication of what you can expect hit the markets in the past few weeks.

The 10-year bond yield jumped a meager 0.25%. It was no big deal; it went from 1.97 to about 2.23, peanuts in the big scheme of things. But it was a real shocker to bond funds.

The iShares 20-year Treasury fund plunged 4.1%. That’s like the Dow crashing 500 points. That was from a minor blip in the 10-year. What do you think will happen when rates run up a point or two? And it is going happen…

A 500-point equivalent drop on just a 0.25% increase on just the 10-year Treasury. The Fed hasn’t budged!

One reader who wrote into the Journal said he lost the equivalent of two years of income on this dip… two years of income. And this isn’t limited to treasuries.

The Nuveen Municipal Fund, one of the oldest and most respected in the business, its share price fell 6.3% in four days when the yield spiked on the 10-year.

The reasons for the losses now and in the future haven’t changed; long maturities to help boost the yield of funds to attract investors and leveraging to boost the yield even further to, of course, attract rate pigs, which most people are.

You can hold bonds, but you cannot hold leveraged bond funds or long maturities, they’re the kiss of death. You must buy individual bonds so you can control the maturities and not have any leveraging in your portfolio. I write about this type of investment all the time at IU.

If you think a 6% drop is big, you haven’t been around long enough. Look for the shares of very heavily leverage funds to drop 50% and 60% when things really get rolling. Most of it will never be recovered.

In 1994, I watched billions disappear, forever, and we’re in a much more threatening environment now than then. We are at 0% rates; I have never seen 0% rates in the 30 years I’ve been in the markets.

This rate environment guarantees one thing; rates will move up. The only issue is when and how quickly.

Make the move now. If you’ve been in bond funds for a while, you should have a very hefty profit. Take it now or forever hold your peace.

This will be a silent blood bath because there’s almost no coverage of the bond market and most people don’t even understand what drives it up and down. Silent but deadly!

Get out now!

Here’s a quick follow up to a story I did a few months ago on IGT, International Game Technology.

At that time they had just paid a bundle for an online gaming company in a bid to capture the at-home gambler who wants to play poker and black jack online.

Well, the numbers since then have been really good. Casinos are opening all over the U.S. and IGT has a 50% market share of the most profitable part of the whole gambling world, slot machines.

Ohio alone is opening four casinos this year. Morgan Stanley estimates casinos will add 20,000 new slots this year alone.

IGT has 50% of the almost one million slot machines in the U.S. and expects 40% to 50% of the new orders this year. Overseas they have a 10% to 20% share.

Slots produce 70% to 80% of casino revenue and IGT leases their machines to the casinos for a percentage of the revenue.

But the stock is well below its historic multiples. The PE has historically run around 20 and sits at about 14 now, well below its expected 20% earnings growth for next year.

MS has a $20 price target on it this year and cites increasing unit sales, increasing market share in Asia and a stock buy back, $100 million this year, as reasons to own it.

IGT, this one isn’t a one-arm bandit!

And yes, the reason you folks really watch this video, the SITFA.

I wanted to thank all the folks at the IU Conference in San Diego last week for all the nice comments about the SITFA. I’m glad you all enjoy it so much.

This week’s cheek smacker is delivered by a Princeton physicist to President Obama and all the other folks who have been running around screaming about global warming.

According to Dr. William Happer, all of the computer models that have been predicting global doom from rapidly rising temperatures are just wrong, again.

Happer say most of the warming of the atmosphere that followed the little ice age at the beginning of the nineteenth century occurred in the early part of the nineteenth century before we started pouring CO2 into the atmosphere.

In fact, in the past 10 years, there has been no increase in temperature at all. Not just that, but this past February when many parts of the U.S. saw higher than average temps, an event we also saw in 1942, according to Happer, the satellites that record the earth’s temperature actually recorded a slight decrease in temp of about 0.12 degrees Celsius.

How can so many people in Washington be so wrong, so often, about so much, not just our weather? Sometime these folks seem really dumb. It’s scary.

Article by Investment U

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Monday 2 April 2012, 08:45 EST

SPOT MARKET gold prices jumped to $1669 per ounce ahead of Monday’s US trading, broadly in line with where they ended last week, though they remained below the Asian session peak touched briefly following the release of positive Chinese manufacturing data.

“Gold [is] still respecting the long-term uptrend,” says the latest technical analysis note from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.

Silver bullion prices hovered around $32.50 per ounce – 0.5% up on Friday’s close – while stocks failed to hold onto early gains.

Commodities were broadly flat and US Treasuries ticked higher.

Physical precious metals markets reported quiet activity Monday morning, with Chinese markets closed until Thursday for the Qingming Festival and Indian jewelry dealers still on strike.

“There is no business in gold and silver,” Kumar Jain, vice president of the Mumbai Jewellers’ Association, which covers ten thousand jewelers, told Reuters.

“The whole value chain has shut.”

Imports of gold bullion by India, the world’s largest gold consumer last year, fell by 55% last month, according to Bombay Bullion Association president Prithviraj Kothari, as jewelers shut their shops following an announcement by India’s government that they were doubling the duty on gold imports and taxing gold jewelry sales.

“Sales have dipped drastically as almost 80 to 90 per cent of the jewelers have joined the protest against duty hike,” says Kothari.

In New York meantime, the net long position of so-called speculative gold futures and options traders on the Comex – measured as the difference between bullish and bearish contracts – rose 15% in the week ended last Tuesday, according to data released at the end of last week’s trading by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Open interest however hit its lowest level this year on a Tuesday – the day of the week for which the CFTC publishes its Commitments of Traders reports. Data from CME Group show it fell further towards the end of last week.

“Gold [lacks] sufficient investment enthusiasm to be able to sideline the physical market as it did earlier in the year,” says a note from Barclays.

“Prices are struggling to gain momentum.”

“Recently prices have been driven strongly by speculative sentiment and it is not surprising to see those pullbacks,” adds Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank.

“But in the longer term, we still stay very confident that the upward trend in gold is still very constructive…I think in the longer term, gold will perform even more like a currency, and be less dependent on the jewelry sector.”

Here in Europe, Eurozone finance ministers agreed Friday to allow the roughly €300 billion already committed from the temporary bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to run alongside the €500 billion European Stability Mechanism, the permanent bailout vehicle due to become operational in July.

However, uncommitted funds from the €440 billion EFSF will not be available once the ESM comes in, capping the amount available for new rescues at €500 billion.

European leaders were told at February’s G20 meeting that they needed to do more to solve the Eurozone crisis before they asked for extra money from the International Monetary Fund.
“Europe has done its part,” said French finance minister Francois Baroin after Friday’s talks. The IMF is due to meet on April 20.

Some European banks meantime are planning to repay loans from the European Central Bank’s longer term refinancing operations two years early to avoid needing to raise money at the same time as many other banks, the Financial Times reports.

Banks borrowed over €1 trillion at the two LTROs in December and February.

Elsewhere in Europe, Eurozone manufacturing activity continued to fall last month – and at a faster rate than February – according to purchasing managers index figures released Monday.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell from 49.0 in February to 47.7 in March, with a figure below 50.0 indicating sector contraction. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone meantime rose to 10.8% last month, up from 10.7% in January, official data showed Monday.

In Germany, manufacturing PMI fell from 50.2 in February to 48.4 last month
By contrast, the latest data show the UK’s manufacturing sector continued to grow last month, with March’s PMI reported as 52.1, up from 51.5 in February.

China also reported accelerating growth in its manufacturing sector, with March’s official PMI reading 53.1, up from 51.0 the previous month.

“Keep in mind that in March the official PMI always rises 3 percentage points from its February level,” says Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura.

“Compared to the past, the official average PMI is about 56, whereas this month, it`s only 53. It’s still very much lower.”

Economists at Societe Generale however counter that even adjusting for seasonality, China’s PMI remain above 50, while “the ‘seasonality’ this March was not especially large relative to the same month in previous years,” adds SocGen interest rate strategist Christian Carrillo.

Over in the US, the first three months of 2012 saw the US Mint record its lowest first quarter sales figures for gold coins in four years.

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

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Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

By CountingPips.com

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators raised their overall US dollar long positions last week while Japanese yen positions decreased sharply to their lowest level since 2007.

Non-commercial futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, increased their total US dollar long positions to $19.58 billion on March 27th from a total long position of $11.67 billion on March 20th, according to the CFTC COT data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Individual Currencies:

EuroFX: Currency speculators decreased their sentiment for the euro currency following two consecutive weeks of improvements in the euro positions. Euro net short positions or bets against the currency rose to 89,129 contracts on March 27th from the previous week’s total of 82,954 net short contracts. Euro contracts on March 20th were at their best position since November 22nd when short positions totaled 85,068 contracts.

The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.

GBP: British pound sterling positions saw improvement last week for a second consecutive week and brought pound positions to their best placement since August. British pound positions saw a total of 11,110 net short positions on March 27th following a total of 15,852 net short positions registered on March 20th. British pound sterling positions continue to be on the short side but are at their best level since August 30th when positions equaled 444 long contracts.

JPY: The downtrend continued last week in the Japanese yen speculative contracts as positions fell to their lowest level since 2007. Yen positions dropped sharply to a total of 67,622 net short contracts reported on March 27th following a total of 25,821 net short contracts on March 20th.

CHF: Swiss franc speculator positions declined last week after improving the two previous weeks. Speculator positions for the Swiss currency futures registered a total of 15,096 net short contracts on March 27th following a total of 11,191 net short contracts as of March 20th.

CAD: Canadian dollar positions declined after previously trending higher for seven consecutive weeks and rising to their highest level since May 2011. Canadian dollar positions fell to a total of 23,737 net long contracts as of March 27th following a total of 42,315 long contracts that were reported for March 20th. CAD positions on March 20th were at their highest position since May 3rd 2011 when long contracts equaled 54,041.

AUD: The Australian dollar long positions rebounded after falling sharply the previous week. Australian dollar positions increased to a total net amount of 59,574 long contracts on March 27th after dropping to 45,191 net long contracts reported as of March 20th. The AUD speculative positions on March 20th had declined to their lowest level since long positions totaled 32,637 on December 27th 2011 before turning around last week.

NZD: New Zealand dollar futures speculator positions edged lower and decreased for a fifth consecutive week after they had risen for nine straight weeks through February 21st. NZD contracts dropped to a total of 3,984 net long contracts as of March 27th following a total of 4,210 net long contracts on March 20th. This is the lowest level for New Zealand dollar contracts since January 3rd when contracts equaled 2,436 net long positions.

MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts rebounded rather sharply following a sharp dip the previous week. Peso long positions increased to a total of 82,833 net long speculative positions as of March 27th following a total of 24,329 long contracts that were reported for March 20th.

COT Currency Data Summary as of March 27, 2012
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar

EUR -89129
GBP -11110
JPY -67622
CHF -15096
CAD +23737
AUD +59574
NZD +3984
MXN +82833

Other COT Trading Resources:

Trading Forex Using the COT Report