Bullion Market Update

Source: ForexYard

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Both gold and silver showed sharp falls during yesterday’s trading largely due to the outcome of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The two metal’s prices should also be affected by the results of the Non-farm payrolls coming out tomorrow after the ADP non-farm rose by 209,000 for March.

A number of reports were released today including the Swiss National Bank Foreign Exchange Reserves, GB Bank Rate and the U.S Department of Labor Jobless Claims Weekly Update.A number of important news events are still due to come out today including the Canadian Ivey PMI.

So far in the month of April we have seen the two metals take a hit , largely due to a rising U.S Dollar.
Gold showed sharp falls of 3.46 percent to reach the low rate of $1,614 whilst silver nose-dived 6.68 percent to just over the $31.00 mark.

Another event influencing the price of the yellow metal remains to be the Strikes in India over Jewellery Tax, which moved into their 19th day on Wednesday. India is the world’s second largest consumer of Gold , so the metal will react to such news out of the gold-loving nation.

Friday’s highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls could possibly have an effect on the commodities markets if we happen to see unexpected figures.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

European Central Bank is Ready to Act if Need Be

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank President has indicated that the bank is ready to act if the inflation risk persists. He said this as he assured investors that the ECB will continue with its stimulus plan until the economy completely recovers. Draghi told investors that all the necessary mechanisms are in place to counter any upside risk to stability of the economy. Draghi, as he addressed reporters in Frankfurt, indicated that ECB would hold interest rates at one percent but added that it was too early to talk about ECB exit strategy. He expressed concerns about the imminent risk in the economy as well as the inflation which has to be contained.

Europe is faced with a major debt crisis which has affected big economies such as Spain and Italy. Greece has had to be rescued twice from near default and unemployment rate in some European countries are hitting record high. As such, ECB is seen as trying to balance threat of inflation in leading economies such as Germany and the battle against the sovereign debt crisis. Draghi also said that the ECB is keeping a close eye on the energy prices and wages to read signs of any risk as early as possible. Apart from the sovereign debt crisis, Draghi assured investors that Euro area will have a modest growth that is anchored in long term inflation expectations which would keep price pressures limited.

Concerns about inflation have come at a time when ECB has pumped into the economy more than 1 trillion Euros in three year loans to financial institutions in the region as efforts to fight off any credit crunch. Mario Draghi said that the LTROs have avoided a major credit crunch in the region as he talked about the decision to keep the interest rates at a record low of 1 percent. However, he said that the meeting did not talk about another LTRO as this is a complex process and needs some time to be considered and to analyze the effects of the current LTRO.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Investment Lessons from Spartacus

By The Sizemore Letter

One of my guilty pleasures is watching the Starz series Spartacus.  As a history buff, I am well aware that the producers take sweeping liberties with the historical facts surrounding the slave rebellion, but I’m ok with that.  It’s great entertainment.

But even as you cheer for Spartacus as his band of escaped gladiators bests the hapless  Romans in episode after episode,  you know that the story won’t end well.  The historical Spartacus didn’t topple the Roman Republic, nor did he liberate all of its slaves.  Though he enjoyed a good run, his rebellion was eventually put down by a professional army led by Crassus, and he was either killed in battle or lived the rest of his life on the run.  His body was never found.

Though the “blood and gore” in the capital markets are rhetorical and not literal as it is in the gladiatorial arena, the investment game is a spectator sport that can also turn your stomach at times.  In watching the moves of your fellow investors, you often instinctively know that certain trades are doomed to end very, very badly.  Whether it is Miami condos in 2005 or fly-by-night dot com stocks in 1999, you know that the investors buying in the late stages of a bull market are setting themselves up to be slaughtered when the market, like a Roman emperor deciding the fate of a defeated gladiator, gives the investment a thumbs down.

So, with that said, where might the greatest risks be today?

In my view, the riskiest major asset classes are U.S. Treasuries and the Japanese yen. 

Far from offering a “risk-free return” as financial theory would suggest, U.S. Treasuries now offer plenty of risk and virtually no return.  At time of writing, the 10-year Treasury note yields a pitiful 2.19%.  Even in a low-inflation environment (which I forecast), this is almost guaranteed to give you a negative real return over the life of the bond.  And if yields rise to a level I consider appropriate for this macro environment (say, 3.0-3.3%), investors would be looking at capital losses of roughly 10% on their “risk-free” bonds.   It is little wonder that Warren Buffett commented that bonds priced at current levels should come with warning labels on them.

Similarly, the Japanese yen is a ticking time bomb.  The yen’s strength in recent years has been due primarily to two factors:

  1. Investors had a preference for anything that wasn’t related to Europe.
  2. The yen’s appeal as a funding currency for the carry trade was reduced by the low yields on offer in the United States and elsewhere and by a general industry-wide move to deleverage.

Japan has debts that it simply does not have the ability to repay.  When Japanese market interest rates begin to rise—and when Japan is forced to turn to the international bond markets, they most assuredly will—the only way out will be through a hyperinflationary devaluation of the yen.  For investors accustomed to seeing deflation coming out of Japan, this will come as a bit of a shock (see “Japan Train Wreck Accelerating” for a longer explanation).

Interestingly, the objects of the last two bubbles—tech stocks and single-family homes—appear quite attractive at current prices.  I recently penned an article in MarketWatch singing the praises of rental houses as an investment for the next decade (see “Here’s the Catalyst for a Housing Rebound”), and I have also added a position to large-cap technology stocks in my Covestor Tactical ETF model.  Similarly, I continue to see value in the epicenter of last year’s turbulence, Europe.

But for the core on a long-term portfolio, I continue to recommend dividend-paying stocks.  At current prices and given the yields on offer by competition in the fixed-income market, dividend-paying stocks would appear to offer the best risk/return tradeoff for the remainder of the decade.

Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, is the editor of the Sizemore Investment Letter, and the chief investment officer of investments firm Sizemore Capital Management. Sign up for a FREE copy of his new special report: “Top 3 ETFs for Dividend-Hungry Investors”

Positive US Data Helps Greenback Extend Gains

Source: ForexYard

The US dollar saw significant gains against virtually all of its main currency rivals yesterday, as positive US fundamental data helped boost confidence in the US economy. The AUD/USD dropped to an 11-week low, while the EUR/USD has fallen close to 200 pips since Tuesday’s session. Today, investors will be eyeing the weekly US Unemployment Claims figure, which is forecasted to show additional gains in the American labor sector. If true, it may give the dollar an additional boost ahead of the release of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls data.

Economic News

USD – Greenback Rallies vs. Major Currency Rivals

The US dollar continued its bullish run throughout yesterday’s session, as the contrast between positive US fundamentals and negative global data continue to boost the greenback. The currency began its upward trend on Tuesday following the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes, which calmed investor fears that the Federal Reserve would initiate another round of quantitative easing in the near future. The news sent the dollar soaring against virtually all of its rivals, including the AUD, EUR and JPY.

Turning to today, traders will want to keep their eyes on the weekly US Unemployment Claims figure, scheduled to be released at 12:30 GMT. At the moment, analysts are predicting the figure to come in at 355K, which if true would signal additional growth in the US employment sector and may help the greenback ahead of Friday’s all-important US Non-Farm Payrolls figure.

Friday’s news is widely considered the most important indicator on the forex calendar, and major volatility can be expected following its release. The dollar has been benefiting from positive US news as of late. Providing the Non-Farms figure comes in as expected, the greenback may be able to extend its recent bullish trend.

EUR – Euro Continues to Tumble

The euro continued to fall throughout yesterday’s trading session, as a combination of negative euro-zone indicators continued to weigh down on the currency. Investor fears that the euro-zone has slipped back into recession combined with debt concerns out of Portugal and Spain have sent the common currency tumbling vs. the dollar. The EUR/USD has fallen close to 200 pips since it began falling on Tuesday. Similar losses were seen vs. the safe-haven Japanese yen.

Turning to today, traders will want to continue monitoring any news out of the euro-zone, particularly with regards to Portugal. The country is widely seen, along with Spain, as the most likely to require a restructuring of its debt. Any negative announcements with regards to its economy may weigh down on the euro. Additionally, should the weekly US Unemployment Claims figure show additional growth in the American labor sector, the dollar may be able to extend its bullish trend vs. the euro.

AUD – AUD/USD Falls to 11-Week Low

The AUD posted losses across the board during yesterday’s session following news that Australia was running a trade deficit. Analysts had been forecasting the Australian Trade Balance figure to come in at 1.12B, instead of its actual -0.48B. The news was followed by an announcement that the Royal Bank of Australia may cut national interest rates as early as next month. As a result, the AUD/USD tumbled to an 11-week low, while against the safe-haven JPY, the aussie fell over 100 pips.

Turning to today, a bank holiday in Australia means that any movements from the AUD are likely to be determined by news outside of the country. With investor sentiment still bearish toward the aussie, the currency may continue to fall against the greenback if positive US employment data shows additional gains in the American economy today.

Crude Oil – Strong US Dollar Causes Price of Oil to Drop

Following the US dollar’s broad gains during yesterday’s trading session, the price of crude oil extended its bearish run throughout the day. Dollar based commodities, like oil, typically fall when the USD is strong, because it makes them more expensive for international buyers. The price of crude slipped within reach of $103 a barrel yesterday. This week, the price of oil has fallen well over $2.

Turning to today, oil traders will want to continue monitoring US data, particularly the weekly Unemployment Claims figure, set to be released at 12:30 GMT. A positive result may lead to further losses for oil ahead of tomorrow’s all important Non-Farm Payrolls data.

Technical News

EUR/USD

Most long term technical indicators place this pair in neutral territory, meaning that no major market movements are expected at this time. That being said, traders will want to keep an eye on the weekly chart’s Relative Strength Index, which is currently near the overbought zone. Should the indicator go above 70, it may be a sign of impending downward movment.

GBP/USD

The weekly chart’s Williams Percent Range is currently at -20, which can be taken as a sign that this pair could see downward movement in the coming days. At the same time, most other long term indicators place this pair in neutral territory. Taking a wait and see approach may be the right choice.

USD/JPY

Both the Williams Percent Range and Relative Strength Index on the weekly chart are hovering close to the overbought zone, indicating that this pair could see downward movement in the near future. Traders may want to go short in their positions ahead of a possible bearish correction.

USD/CHF

According to the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart, this pair could see a major price shift in the near future. The Williams Percent Range on the same chart is showing that the shift could be upwards. Going long may be a wise choice for this pair ahead of a possible upward breach.

The Wild Card

EUR/GBP

A bullish cross on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic appears to be forming at this time, indicating that this pair could see upward movement in the near future. This theory is supported by the Williams Percent Range on the same chart, which has dropped below the -80 level. Forex traders may want to go long in their positions ahead of possible upward movement.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Fed Sees no Need For Third Round of Quantitative Easing

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – According to the minutes released yesterday on the Fed’s meeting on March 13, the Fed is comfortable with the current growth and sees no need for further easing unless the economy loses in current momentum. The Fed has injected $2.3 trillion of bonds in two monetary easing operations conducted between December 2008 and June 2011. The third round of quantitative easing would be considered if the economic recovery currently being experienced changed or the prices rose slower than the 2 percent target set by the Fed.

In the minutes released yesterday, some Fed officials signaled that it third round of quantitative easing would be necessary if the current economic conditions were to deteriorate or if the prices were to go up. This is unlike previous standing where some official of the FOMC indicated that the current economic status warranted for quantitative easing. Some analysts are claiming that the March 13 minutes indicates a reduced urgency to add stimulus as there were no sentiments showing the need to add stimulus with the current state of the economy. The minutes also confirmed Fed’s decision to keep interest rates low until late 2014.

Dennis Lockhart, the Atlanta Fed President, said in an interview that he was contented with the current state of the economy and that he would have to see severe change in circumstances for him to endorse and third round of quantitative easing. Lockhart is a voting member of FOMC on monetary policy issues. After the release of the minutes, the market reacted sharply with the dollar rising against major peers in the market.

Higher gas prices effects have been diminished by the positive employment reports with a March 30 Commerce Department report indicating that Americans increased their spending by most in seven months. The report showed that purchases increased by 0.8 percent in the month of February. It seems that the positive data from the US has started to ease the strong stand by Fed and traders and analysts are waiting to see whether the monetary policy will be changed be for the expected time.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Aussie Weakens as Country Records Trade Deficit

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – The Australian dollar dropped to eleven-week low after the Reserve Bank of Australia pointed out that it would review the monetary policy downwards if the need arises. To add to the Aussie’s downward pressure, the country unexpectedly registered a trade deficit. The report of the Reserve Bank’s intention to cut interest rate hit the market after the member of RBA met on Tuesday. Positive reports from the US also pushed the Aussie further down against the greenback.  The New Zealand dollar also dropped against the US dollar ahead of a report expected to show a recovery in the US job market.

According to the Minutes of the Fed’s meeting released on Tuesday, the FOMC members are concerned about the US economy and they are still keeping the stimulus package on the table if the US economy lost momentum. The Fed also insisted on keeping the interest rates low up to late 2014. So far, the Fed has bought $2.3 trillion of bonds since December 2008 to June last year. This was done in two rounds and the third round is still an option for the Fed if the economy deteriorates.

In Australia, the RBA has been described as being on the “easing bias” by Lee Wai Tuck who is a Currency Strategist at Forecast Pte min Singapore. This is due to the concerns about the slowing exports that are pushing the Australian dollar down against major currencies.

The Aussie dropped by 0.4 percent against the US dollar to trade at $1.0289 after it had dropped to $1.0264, which is the lowest it has been since January 16 against the green back. The Aussie was also weak against the New Zealand dollar when it dropped to its weakest since October 6 exchanging at NZ$1.2576. The kiwi was weak against the dollar falling 0.2 percent to exchange at 81.74 US cents.

RBA reported that it would reassess its inflation outlook after seeing the forthcoming key data on prices. This would pave the way for a change in monetary policy if the prices’ data is not as expected. Currently, the RBA has left the interest rate at 4.25 percent.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

European Bond Yields and The Danger of Market Complacency

By MoneyMorning.com.au

What a difference a day makes. Last night we saw a bad Spanish bond auction, which kneecapped European peripheral bond yields. Portuguese, Spanish and Italian bond yields all raced higher by over 20 basis points!

I noted the fact that their yields were starting to trade higher yesterday and that the LTRO2 had already run out of puff. The cracks are certainly beginning to appear and equity markets are finally starting to react.


Let’s have a quick look at those bond yields again today for those who missed yesterday’s Money Morning.

Portuguese 10-year bonds

Portuguese 10-year bonds

Source: Bloomberg

Spanish 10-year bonds

Spanish 10-year bonds

Source: Bloomberg

Italian 10-year bonds

Italian 10-year bonds

Source: Bloomberg


A move of over 20 basis points in one night is big news. As I said back in February, if European bond yields start rising again soon after the end of LTRO2 then watch out. I think we saw the first concrete signs of this last night.

Things are deteriorating at a rapid pace in Spain. Why anyone would buy 10-year bonds at a 5% yield is beyond me. Obviously others are starting to think the same.

There are some very strange things going on in equity land. We are continuing to see major redemptions from US mutual funds on a weekly basis. Even though the stock market is rallying to new highs. Also we are continuing to see major insider selling.

Domestic Equity Mutual Fund Flows

Source: Zerohedge


It looks like investors no longer believe the hype created by the algorithms that continue to buy stocks into the stratosphere, even though nearly every other indicator is sending warning signs.

It was interesting to note in the Commitment of Traders (COT) data released last week that the big boys are short and getting shorter while the retail punters are long and wrong.

COT data for 27th March

COT data for 27th March
Click here to enlarge

Have a look at the data within the ellipses. The dealer/intermediary (i.e the big boys) are short 690,000 and long only 137,000 contracts. And they increased their short position by 50,000 in the week prior to 27th March. Also the Leveraged funds are short 783,000 odd and only long about 374,000. And they increased their short exposure by 22,000 in the week before 27th March.

The non-reportable positions (retail punters) are long and increased their long position in the week leading up to the 27th of March. Who do you think will get it right?

As I said yesterday, high-yield debt has also started diverging in a big way from equity markets. And the bond market is often proven right in the end.

The warning signs are there. But people get lulled into a false sense of security when the equity market continues to slowly trade higher on little volatility. I liken it to a frog boiling in a pot.

If you want to boil the frog you have to place it in there when the water is cold and then slowly heat it up. The frog will sit there happy as Larry until it finally boils to death.

I think this is what will happen to complacent investors who ignore all the warning signs and just point at the rising stock market as proof that all is well with the world.

As far as I am concerned the stock market is absolutely kidding itself and the technicals are now pointing to a large fall dead ahead.

As I mentioned yesterday, the ASX 200 looked like it was on the verge of re-entering the distribution that we have been in for the past eight months. I said that if the ASX 200 closed below 4266 in the short term then a long-term sell signal will have been generated. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we closed near that level today.

ASX 200 daily chart

ASX 200 daily chart
Click here to enlarge

If we analyse what is really happening in that distribution you can understand why so many traders end up losing money so consistently. Classical technical analysis is often looking to buy breakouts. But the fact is that the market moves in a series of false breakouts.

Let’s have a closer look at that ASX 200 chart:

ASX 200 daily chart

ASX 200 daily chart
Click here to enlarge

You can see that the last few months of trading has seen what looks like a widening distribution. I have drawn in the blue lines to make it clear.

Basically the market continually breaks outside the current range thus setting off any stop losses that would have been placed outside the extremity of the current range. Then it proceeds to re-enter the range and head towards its midpoint (i.e. the point of control) and then shoots back out the other side.

This type of price action is happening across all markets and all time frames because it is this type of price action that fools and whips out most traders. It is not until traders are fatigued and have capitulated that the market will be ready to make its big move.

This is what I try to focus on in Slipstream Trader and even though it is never easy – because trading is hard – whichever way you look at it, it does make sense of the price action.

You are basically trying to take advantage of other traders’ mistakes to give you great risk/reward entry points into stocks and futures. If you fade the false breaks (that is, if you trade against the current move) then you only need to take a very small amount of risk to find out if you are right or wrong. This means you can increase your position size for the same amount of dollars at risk.

I’ll show you a lot more about this process over the next few weeks, where I’ll explain how something called the “Hamartia paradox” can help you to trade the markets effectively over time by looking for these types of structures.

The current distribution has been an incredibly arduous process and I can tell you that it has fooled me even though I know how it gets created. I think there will be a lot of traders out there who will be caught long and wrong over the next few weeks so you have been warned. If you are overly exposed right here you should consider dumping at least some of your position or at the very least taking some profit off the table.

Murray Dawes
Slipstream Trader

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European Bond Yields and The Danger of Market Complacency

Do Demographics Really Condemn Us to a Bleak Future?

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Do demographics drive markets? George Magnus of UBS, isn’t convinced.

He accepts that the “halcyon era of sustained equity and real estate price appreciation from the 1980s until the financial crisis” happened just as the baby boomers of the 1960s entered the work force. Clearly this brought women, and well educated women at that, into the workforce and meant the quantity and the quality of labour rose at the same time.

So consumption rose and savings rose too. Those savings went into equities in one way or another (via pensions and so on). They also went into property (particularly in the US and the UK).

He isn’t so sure of the rest. According to the next part of the story, this “demographic dividend” was the main reason – perhaps the only reason – why the prices of all these assets rose.

The problem now is that this process has run its course. For the last 30 years or so, falling fertility has reduced child dependency, yet, with the size of the working population rising, we haven’t had to worry too much about the ratio of dependent old people either.

The Demographics Situation Today

Low fertility rates mean there isn’t a ready supply of new workers, and the baby boomers themselves are on the verge of being old – demanding care costs and endless time from their children.

As far as the demographic doomers are concerned, this means that we can just turn our charts upside down. Savings will fall at the same time as the number of people of first-time-buyer age falls: “the number of 20-44 year-olds, deemed to be the prime first-time home buyer cohort, will fall by 10-20% in the next two to three decades in most advanced nations, but by 30% in Spain and China, and by a whopping 40% in South Korea.”

The result? Equity prices will fall. And so will property prices. Fast.

It sounds like a good story, I say to Magnus. What’s wrong with it? The main thing, he says, is that “the whole aging thing is unique in human history” so we just don’t know how it will pan out.

It might make sense to say that returns on equity will be lower than they have been. But to suggest that “the entire asset appreciation of the last 30 years” is down to demographics? Here he explains why that is “patently absurd”, given that it totally ignores the “effects of financial deregulation and innovation and a virulent expansion of credit.”

And what of “macroeconomic management, profits, innovation, governance and financial stability”?

It is also the case that “capitalism rewards scarcity,” so we can expect, in the West at least, to see labour beginning to claw back some of the rewards that have accrued to management and equity over the last decade. Some may think that a bad thing. I am pretty certain it is not.

Either way, the point is that it isn’t a given that aging populations make for falling asset markets. And even it turns out that they do, the effect won’t be seen for a while. “Demographics are slow moving and relatively predictable, and asset markets are sensitive to an array of economic and financial developments, most notably the credit cycle.”

Can You Trust the Demographic Figures?

It is also worth noting that forecasting markets based on demographics is only as good as the forecasting of the demographics. Which isn’t generally very good.

Every year, Japan’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (NIPSSR) puts out a forecast for Japan’s future population. They usually get it wrong. In 2006, their medium forecast for the Japanese population was 127.18 million. Their most optimistic forecast (of nine) was 127.64 million. The actual number in 2010 was 128.06 million.

The difference, says Jonathan Allum of Mizuho in the Blah, comes down to fertility. 2005, when fertility in Japan was 1.26, did not mark, as everyone thought it did, just another point on a downward path. It was the bottom. The number is now 1.39.

The world’s many Malthusians have, as Allum says, long “been confounded” by the fact that fertility falls as wealth increases. However this inverse correlation does not last forever.

Here is Matt Ridley on the subject in his 2010 book The Rational Optimist: “The latest research uncovers a second demographic transition in which the very richest countries see a slight increase in their birth rate once they pass a certain level of prosperity. The United States, for example, saw its birth rate bottom out at 1.74 children per woman in about 1976; since then it has risen to 2.05. Birth rates have risen in eighteen of the twenty-four countries that have a Human Development Index greater than 0.94.”

At the time, Ridley referred to Japan and Korea as “puzzling exceptions” to this rule. They are not. Both have, against all expectations, seen rises in their fertility rates in the last few years. Another reason perhaps why things in Japan aren’t quite as bad as the bears think they are.

Merryn Somerset Webb

Editor in Chief, MoneyWeek (UK)

Publisher’s Note: This is an edited version of an article that first appeared in MoneyWeek (UK).

From the Archives…

Why Spain’s Economy is the Next Big Problem for the Eurozone

2012-03-30 – John Stepek

Water: A Long Term Trend to Follow

2012-03-29 – Patrick Vail

How to Avoid the Welfare State Hunger Games

2012-03-28 – Kris Sayce

What Happens When You Put Someone With No Market Experience in the Top Job?

2012-03-27 – Dr. Alex Cowie

The Star Stocks of the Resource Sector

2012-03-26 – Dr. Alex Cowie

For editorial enquiries and feedback, email [email protected]


Do Demographics Really Condemn Us to a Bleak Future?