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EURUSD Daily Technical Analysis Update

Source: ForexYard

Good day for the Bullion market as both gold and silver traded up during Thursday’s trading partially due to a weakening dollar as well as the fact that U.S Stocks are on the rise.

The yellow metal saw gains of 1.2% to reach the level of $1,680 whilst silver also followed with sharp gains.Other metals also  made gains during Thursday’s trading including copper,platinum and palladium

When the U.S dollar weakens we tend to see an opposite reaction with Gold as the metal is a dollar-denominated commodity.Silver also has a correlation with the yellow metal and tends to move in similar patterns, and showing similar trends.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By The Sizemore Letter

Americans hitting the bar scene this weekend will have their choice of two basic beer options. They can order a bottle of a mass-market brand like Budweiser or Miller Lite. Or, if they style themselves as beer snobs, they might enjoy an import or a good microbrew.

(As a native Texan, I find myself partial to Shiner Bock, though it is debatable whether Shiner still qualifies as a “microbrew” given its popularity in the state.)

Beer investors also have the same basic options. Suds stocks fall into one of two categories:

1. Megabrews with world-dominating brands — companies like Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE:BUD), Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE:TAP) and SABMiller (PINK:SBMRY).
2. Smaller companies that produce mostly craft beers, such as the Boston Beer Company (NYSE:SAM), the maker of the popular Sam Adams, and Craft Brew Alliance (NASDAQ:BREW), which makes smaller brands Kona and Red Hook.

Either option can make a fine investment choice, but you should understand that the rationales for buying are very different.

BUD, TAP and SBMRY essential operate a megabrand beer cartel. Their businesses are safe and relatively stable, though not particularly exciting. They also tend to be fairly recession-resistant. If anything, consumers often trade down from more expensive craft beers to cheaper mass-market beers when times are hard. For investors just looking for consistent returns, this kind of consistency is attractive.

SAM and BREW, being smaller and nimbler, are better growth stories. SAM in particular has enjoyed fantastic earnings growth in recent years, and its niche placement as a seller of premium beers allows it to generate higher returns on equity.

Both SAM and BREW also benefit from demographic shifts that have seen the gentrification of the beer market. True beer aficionados won’t be caught dead holding a Bud Light bottle, though a Sam Adams will work just fine.

One thing nearly all of the brewers seem to have in common, however, is lofty stock prices.

Anheuser-Busch InBev, SABMiller and Boston Beer all trade at valuations far higher than the broader S&P 500, and Craft Brew’s forward P/E is more than 35.

Of the entire lot, Molson Coors would appear to be the only one trading at an attractive price. The stock sells for just 11 times earnings and pays 3.1% in dividends. Not bad, given that the 10-year Treasury just slipped under 2% again.

Those dividends also happen to be growing at a decent clip. Last year’s TAP payout rose by 14%, and this was on top of the 16% rise the year before. And with the dividend payout ratio at just 34% of earnings, there is plenty of room for additional hikes.

Molson Coors also is conservatively financed and trades below its book value. There is not much here for an investor to complain about.

But while I like Coors’ stock, I won’t be drinking a Coors Lite this evening. I’m afraid Shiner Bock will always be my favorite.

Alas, I will not be buying Shiner Bock stock, however, because it is not a publicly traded company. This is a real shame. I’ve spent enough money on the company’s products over the years; I might as well benefit financially as a shareholder.

Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, is the editor of the Sizemore Investment Letter, and the chief investment officer of investments firm Sizemore Capital Management. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Sign up for a FREE copy of his new special report: “Top 3 ETFs for Dividend-Hungry Investors.”

Article by Investment U

Blend some of this new Indonesia small-cap fund (NYSE: IDXJ) into your portfolio, but don’t forget your trailing stop to protect yourself.

If there’s one country I’ve been consistently bullish on during the last five years, it’s Indonesia.

When I speak at investment seminars and discuss Indonesia, you can see the eyes widen and the pens picked up to jot down notes.

I think it’s because Indonesia is so far off the radar screen. Most people just have a vague idea of a group of islands near Australia.

The country actually spans on area from east to west longer than America. Its land mass is three times the size of Texas and equal to the size of Greenland. While on the board of the Asian Bank in Manila, I explored the country from tip to tip, and was amazed at the beauty, resources, potential and the people of Indonesia.

With a population of about 250 million, Indonesia is the fourth largest in the world and the planet’s fastest-growing middle class. Java alone has 124 million people in a land area the size of the state of New York. And many of these citizens are plugged into the global economy. Indonesia is the third-largest user of Facebook after the United States and the U.K.

Once a member of OPEC, Indonesia has ample natural resources and is a major exporter of natural gas, rubber, palm oil and coal, and is home to 30% of the world’s rainforests.

With all this good stuff, why doesn’t Indonesia get more attention from investors or the media?

The key to unlocking Indonesia’s mystery is to remember how hard it was hit by the 1997 to 1998 Asian financial crisis. This trauma, coupled with a move to a democratic form of government, has since led to much better fiscal policies and attracted much needed capital.

It may surprise you that Indonesia is the only one of the 20 largest economies in the world (G-20) to have a budget in balance and a declining debt to GDP. No wonder its debt was upgraded to investment grade last year.

All of this has also been good for its stock market. Over the past decade, it’s been the second-best performer amongst emerging markets, powering ahead with an average annual return of 25.2%.

Like some of the countries I follow in the Pacific Rim, the chief challenge is to find ways to capture the growth and returns. There are only two Indonesian companies that trade on the NYSE or Nasdaq, and a couple dozen Indonesian “pink sheet blue chips” I follow that trade over the counter (OTC).

The Aberdeen Indonesia Fund, Inc. (AMEX: IF) has been a favorite of mine, and there’s also the Van Eck Indonesia ETF (NYSE: IDX). These funds favor the biggest companies in Indonesia.

So you can imagine my glee in seeing Van Eck come out with its new Small Cap Indonesia ETF (NYSE: IDXJ). It’s a basket of 27 companies with an average market value of $688 million. These are the companies growing at a faster pace than the big boys with the flexibility to turn on a dime. The top 10 companies represent more than 50% of the baskets value.

Like any emerging or frontier country, Indonesia has its challenges, such as corruption and infrastructure. Fifty million people don’t have access to power and 50% of Jakarta’s 10 million people don’t have running water.

I see these as opportunities going forward. Blend some of this new Indonesia small-cap fund into your portfolio, but don’t forget your trailing stop to protect yourself.

Good Investing,

Carl Delfeld

Article by Investment U

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman indicated in a speech yesterday that the accommodative policy adopted by the Federal Reserve is necessary in the present economic circumstances. This is in line with the Fed’s view that the borrowing costs should be held low until 2014 to allow the economy to make full recovery. The Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen was talking in New York in a round of Fed speeches which have been going on throughout the week. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke spoke on Monday and he is expected to give another speech on Friday.

Yellen said that said that the Fed’s program to extend the maturity of the assets to expire in June should not be taken as tightening of the policy. Her speech came barely two weeks prior to Fed’s meeting. She echoed the Fed Chairman’s sentiments that the unemployment is expected to decline gradually hence the need for the accommodative monetary policy. Further, she added that the housing prices weakness, the government spending cuts, and the European debt crisis are some of the factors that will slow the economic expansion in the US.

Yellen was also pessimistic about achieving the maximum employment in the near future as it is projected in the Fed’s monetary policy. She added that she is ready to change her monetary view if the circumstances change citing the numerous uncertainties surrounding the current outlook prospects. Financial economists have indicated that the Vice Chairman’s comments indicate that the Fed is not ready to change its outlook on “exceptionally low” interest rate.

Despite the comments, Yellen expressed confidence in the Fed’s ability to deal with any scenario in the future. Her confidence was also shared by the Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart who in his speech said that despite the disappointing job report for March; his view about the economy remains unchanged. Lockhart holds the view that the economy is growing at a moderate pace and would not support a third round of quantitative easing. The data that has been released since the Fed’s last meeting has not been consistent pointing to a mixed outlook for the US economy.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Article by Investment U

By focusing on the top economies and giving you separation from Brazil-centered funds, the Global X FTSE Andean 40 ETF (AND) is building a profile you can’t help but notice.

You could forgive me for making a mountain out of a molehill. After all, I’m from eastern Kansas, where you can often see the horizon from your roof.

Now I admit that my plains upbringing may change my perspective, but I still can’t figure out how so many investors are missing an opportunity the size of a mountain range!

I’m talking about the Global X FTSE Andean 40 ETF (NYSE: AND). It’s one of the most promising and least appreciated exchange-traded funds out there.

It’s a great option for investors who want a path to South American emerging markets without putting half of their money in the Brazilian side of the continent.

And this is a trend I think we’re going to see a lot more of.

What’s happening reminds me of the Asia and Pacific ETFs and mutual funds that add “ex-Japan” on the end. That doesn’t mean the managers of funds like the WisdomTree Asia-Pacific ex-Japan ETF (NYSE: AXJL) had a nasty breakup with the Land of the Rising Sun…

It means the stock pickers in charge know that Japan is a giant! Allocating money there could dampen returns from fast-moving companies in Asia’s emerging markets.

These days, funds are going “ex-Brazil,” too.

The FTSE Andean 40 Index follows just three countries along the Andes mountain range. The same way the Andes gave us so many iconic images of the continent, the three countries in the Andean ETF highlight the most splendid parts of the South American economy.

Chile rules the Andean ETF with just over half of the fund’s investment going to the Pacific Rim power.

Touching the Amazon, the Andes, the Pacific and the Caribbean, Colombia is second in strength at 29.00%.

Peru is last in weight, but definitely not in its potential to drive this fund’s returns. A total of 19.90% of the Andean 40 pie is devoted to Peru, and its Peruvian holdings are rock solid.

Now, let’s take a look at some of the stocks coming from each country.

AND holds Banco Santander Chile (NYSE: STD) and industrial company Sociedad Quimica y Minera (NYSE: SQM). For an interesting twist, it also gives you global wine giant Vina Concha y Toro (NYSE: VCO). Chile’s diverse climate and copper production make it a key driver of growth for this ETF.

Colombia used to mean drugs and violence. Now two of its companies are up on the New York big board: national oil company Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC) and bank Bancolombia (NYSE: CIB) represent the country well.

From Peru, Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE: SCCO) and Compania de Minas Buenaventura (NYSE: BVN) highlight Peru’s deposits of copper, gold, iron ore, lead, zinc, tin and molybdenum, which is a key component to iPods and many clean energy devices.

Now, don’t think just living in the shadow of the mountains means a country or company is cut out for Andean 40 ETF— this fund keeps you out of Ecuador and Bolivia, both Andean nations with troubled economies.

By focusing on the top economies and giving you separation from Brazil-centered funds, AND is building a profile you can’t help but notice.

Good Investing,

Sam Hopkins

Article by Investment U

Source: ForexYard

The U.S dollar experienced further declines after a report regarding jobless claims produced figures of 380,000. the Jobless claims report is one that involves individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the previous week.

The 17-nation Euro took advantage of the dollar set back and made gains to $1,3161 from the lower rate of approximately $1,3100 which it was trading during Wednesday’s late session. The Bullion market has also taken advantage of the weakening U.S dollar as both gold and silver have strengthened today.

Elsewhere, the Canadian Dollar appreciated over its U.S counterpart today due to positive news out of Australia after releasing an improved employment report. The Canadian currency also know as the “loonie”  will benefit from positive movements from commodity currencies such as the Australian Dollar.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Thurs 12 April, 08:35 EST

INVESTORS looking to buy gold saw prices fall alongside the US Dollar in London trade Thursday morning, dropping $8 per ounce to $1652 and falling harder in other currencies as commodities also edged lower.

Silver prices slipped back to $31.45 an ounce, losing 1.1% for the week so far vs. the Dollar.

Eurozone investors wanting to buy gold saw the price drop 1.2% from Tuesday’s late one-month high of €1271 per ounce (€40,868 per kilo) as the single currency rallied on the forex market.

Italy today sold almost €5 billion in new government bonds, with investors demanding a whole percentage point more in annual interest on 3-year debt at 3.9% than they did at a sale in mid-March.

“Gold is struggling, weighed down by…faltering investor interest,” says Standard Bank’s commodity team in a note.

“Physical demand on the other hand has been supportive, with particularly strong buying coming out of the Far East on price dips.”

A late rally in Asian shares Thursday was attributed by newswire reports to rumors that Hong Kong banks will be able to lend directly to businesses in the Shenzen Special Economic Zone.

Data out this morning said new Chinese bank lending rose sharply above analyst forecasts in March at CNY 1.01 billion ($160bn). Growth in private-sector bank account holdings also accelerated, growing by 13.4% from March 2011.

“Chinese monetary easing looks to have already taken place,” says Standard Bank, and “The latest Chinese foreign exchange reserves data [also] showed a much stronger-than-expected increase in March.

“Reserve accumulation and continued low real interest rates underscores our long-term bullish outlook for gold.”

Two days after the International Monetary Fund said it was cutting its long-term forecast for China’s trade surplus – “the analytical underpinning for the case that the Renminbi is substantially undervalued” according to former IMF official Eswar Prasad – the World Bank today trimmed its forecast for China’s GDP growth in 2012.

Down from 8.4% to 8.2%, that would be the slowest pace in 13 years. China’s trade surplus almost halved in 2011 to 2.7%.

China’s private demand to buy gold in 2011 accounted for more than 0.6% of GDP on Bullion Vault’s analysis, with imports accounting for over half of that.

“Gold [in 2011] was clearly dependent on emerging markets’ economic strength, as China’s jewelry demand grew to a record level while India’s fell by less than 3%,” said GFMS executive chairman Philip Klapwijk on Wednesday, launching the consultancy’s new Gold Survey 2012.

Rising incomes in both China and India mean “We see significant potential for new entrants” to the gold market, said Klapwijk, with banks expanding access to physical product in-branch, and private-sector operators also expanding “distribution to retail investors.”

Ahead of US trade and producer-price data on Thursday, Australia reported a sharp jump in consumer expectations for inflation to 3.3%, while unemployment held flat at 5.2% last month.

The UK trade deficit yawned to £8.7 billion in February, while Eurozone industrial production contracted as analysts forecast, down 1.8% from Feb. 2011.

“I consider a highly accommodative policy stance to be appropriate in present circumstances,” said Janet Yellen, vice-chair of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors, in a speech on Wednesday.

“But…further easing actions could be warranted if the recovery proceeds at a slower-than-expected pace,” said Yellen – the Fed’s #2 to chairman Ben Bernanke – adding that only “a significant acceleration in the pace of recovery” would bring forward any tightening of current policy.

The Bank of Japan “must not waver” but expand its balancesheet “aggressively” to fight deflation, says Frederic Neumann, co-head of HSBC bank’s Asian economics team, writing in the Financial Times.

To avoid a “lost decade”, Europe should meantime set up a Special Purpose Vehicle, separate from the individual member states, to hold Eurozone government debt bought with €2-3 trillion created through the European Central Bank says financier and hedge-fund manager George Soros, also writing in the Financial Times today.

“In the long run,” said GFMS chairman Klapwijk at Wednesday’s event in London’s Canary Wharf, “the current level of gold investment demand is not sustainable. But it can be sustained [in the meantime] by central-bank policy.

“Negative real rates of interest and quantitative easing can only be good for gold,” he explained, forecasting a continuation of US and UK policy in 2012, plus further relaxation in Europe.

Whether in North America, Europe or emerging Asia, people are choosing to buy gold “as a form of protection against debt monetization and inflation,” he said.

The Singapore Mercantile Exchange said Thursday will launch new silver and gold futures contracts in May, “providing an alternate [Asian] market because China and India are closed” to cross-border flows according to SMX chief executive Vaidyalingam Hariharan, speaking to Reuters.

Adrian Ash
BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2012

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – The Canadian dollar has been on a bearish trend for the last four days but prospects of economic growth in the country have boosted the loonie against its US counterpart. Traders and analysts are expecting the Bank of Canada to signal that the economic conditions improved during the release of its monetary policy next week.

The Canadian Dollar was up against the US dollar after a report showed that Canadian housing starts accelerated in March. Further, the gains in equity futures and commodities boosted the demand for riskier assets that pushed the loonie up against the dollar.

The market is quite optimistic about the Canadian dollar with most economists holding the view that the economic conditions in the country have improved. Analysts and economists expect the Bank of Canada to revise its domestic and international outlook upward due to improvements observed in the recent past. The economic upturn in US and the rest of the world should be enough signs for the BOC members to give positive outlook. Considering the housing starts, which rose to 215,600 in March according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp, it would be appealing for the BOC governor to revise the economic outlook.

The loonie has advanced by 0.2 percent against the dollar to trade at C$1.0023 per US dollar. It had earlier fallen to C$1.0053, the lowest it has been since January 31. This increase is seen as a result of optimism of growth, where traders expect the BOC to report an economic growth in its next week’s report. The Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney had indicated in April second that the nation’s economy was stronger than they had earlier projected. The April 17 meeting is aimed at setting the interest rates for the country and they will release a report of the meeting the next day on April 18.

Economists are expecting the Canadian dollar to register a increase against the US dollar expecting one US dollar to cost 98 cents by the year end.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

By Elliott Wave International

To meet ambitious investment return targets, some public pension funds must now swing for the fences.

But many are down two strikes already, due to their previous big bets with hedge funds.

….the [pension] funds with a third to more than half of their money in private equity, hedge funds and real estate had returns that were more than a percentage point lower than returns of the funds that largely avoided those assets. They also paid nearly four times as much in fees.

New York Times, April 1

The same article describes how other pension funds have embraced this risky strategy, and how funds generally have their assets at risk. In 2007 pension funds allocated 10.7 percent to “high-growth” investments; by September 2011 they had increased that bet to 19 percent. All the while, hedge funds have underperformed, as this chart from our January 2012 Financial Forecast shows:

The [HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index] hit a new low on December 14, producing a rash of articles about how hedge funds got tripped up in 2011. “Many hedge-fund managers who came into 2011 riding a wave of momentum ended the year scratching their heads and nursing losses, whipsawed by markets that seemed to punish them month after month.” “Head scratching” is just right for this still-early stage of the bear. Through the first ten months of 2011, 123 Asian hedge funds shut their doors, the second highest number of closures since 2008, the year world markets collapsed.

Financial Forecast, January 20

The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) is the nation’s largest public pension fund. It recently lowered its investment return target from 7.75 percent to 7.5 percent. The system’s actuary had recommended lowering it to 7.25 percent.>

The CalPERS board members were told by their staff that they had only a 50 percent chance of hitting or surpassing the 7.5 percent target, yet they adopted that assumption. Others say the odds are even worse than that.

If CalPERS loses the bet, as it is likely to, the next generation will pay the shortfall…

….if CalPERS or any other public-pension system banks on higher-investment returns, it must take greater risks to meet the target…Cal-PERS chief investment officer told Pensions and Investments newspaper last year, his system has “a reasonably ambitious return target” and “needs to have a portfolio with a lot of growth exposure.”

San Jose Mercury News, March 24

Is now the time to take greater risks? You saw the 2011 performance of hedge funds, and that was a year when the DJIA was up. Imagine the scenario if the market takes a serious tumble.

As an independent thinker, you have a way to prepare for your retirement: An unbiased, objective analysis of the facts and the future. That’s exactly what you get when you download the free 50-page Independent Investor eBook. It’s filled with analysis that will help you prepare for your financial future.You’ll get some of the most groundbreaking and eye-opening reports ever published in Elliott Wave International’s 30-year history; you’ll also get new analysis, forecasts and commentary to help you think independently in today’s tumultuous market.Download Your Free 50-Page Independent Investor eBook Now