Dollar Continues to Fall vs. Riskier Currencies

By TraderVox.com

The US dollar extended its recent bearish trend during yesterday's trading session, as positive data out of Australia and China led to an increase in risk taking.

The EUR/USD hit a one-week high at 1.3175 during the afternoon session, while the AUD/USD moved up well over 100 pips over the course of the day. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar erased gains made during overnight trading. By the end of the European session, the USD/JPY had once again dropped below the 81.00 level.

Turning to today, a batch of US data is forecasted to generate market volatility before markets close for the week. The Core CPI figure, scheduled to be released at 12:30 GMT, is forecasted to come in at 0.2%. If true, it would represent a slight increase over last month and may result in dollar gains.

The same can be said of the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment figure, which is forecasted to come in at 76.5 when it is released at 13:55 GMT. Traders will also want to pay attention to a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Any mention of additional quantitative easing by the Fed Chairman may result in dollar losses.

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
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Euro Hits 1-Week High vs. USD

Source: ForexYard

The euro rose to a one-week high against the US dollar during yesterday’s trading session, as positive international fundamental data led to an increase in risk taking. Analysts are warning that overall market sentiment is still bearish toward the euro, and any gains made by the currency may be short lived. Today, traders will want to pay attention to data out of the US, including the Core CPI and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment figures. With both indicators forecasted to come in above last month’s, the greenback could see gains to close out the week.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Continues to Fall vs. Riskier Currencies

The US dollar extended its recent bearish trend during yesterday’s trading session, as positive data out of Australia and China led to an increase in risk taking. The EUR/USD hit a one-week high at 1.3175 during the afternoon session, while the AUD/USD moved up well over 100 pips over the course of the day. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar erased gains made during overnight trading. By the end of the European session, the USD/JPY had once again dropped below the 81.00 level.

Turning to today, a batch of US data is forecasted to generate market volatility before markets close for the week. The Core CPI figure, scheduled to be released at 12:30 GMT, is forecasted to come in at 0.2%. If true, it would represent a slight increase over last month and may result in dollar gains. The same can be said of the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment figure, which is forecasted to come in at 76.5 when it is released at 13:55 GMT. Traders will also want to pay attention to a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Any mention of additional quantitative easing by the Fed Chairman may result in dollar losses.

EUR – Risk Taking Gives EUR Slight Boost

The euro saw modest gains vs. several of its main currency rivals during trading yesterday, following positive Chinese news which led to investors shifting their funds to higher yielding assets. The EUR/GBP shot up close to 40 pips over the course of the day, reaching as high as 0.8264 by the end of European trading. The EUR/JPY was up over 60 pips for the day, reaching as high as 106.68 by the afternoon session.

Turning to today, analysts are warning that the euro may have a hard time sustaining its recent bullish momentum. Spanish and Portuguese debt worries continue to weigh down on investor confidence in the euro-zone economic recovery. Furthermore, with US news forecasted to show growth in the US economy today, investors may shift their funds back to the dollar, which could result in the EUR/USD turning bearish.

AUD – Australian Employment Data Boosts AUD

The aussie received a boost in trading yesterday, as a better than expected Employment Change figure led to risk taking in the market place. The Australian economy added 44K jobs last month, well above the 6.4K analysts had been predicting. By the end of the European session, the AUD/USD was trading around the 1.0430 level, up 130 pips for the day. The AUD/JPY saw gains of close to 100 pips, reaching as high as 84.36 during afternoon trading.

As we close out the week, AUD traders will want to focus on a batch of Chinese data that may lead to additional risk taking in the marketplace. Additionally, several US indicators are set to be released over the course of the day and could lead to significant volatility. Should any of the news come in above analyst expectations, higher yielding currencies, like the AUD, could see additional gains.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Turns Bullish

The price of crude oil saw a healthy boost during the afternoon session yesterday, following a drop in US crude oil inventories and natural gas, which was taken as a sign of increased demand in the world’s biggest energy consuming country. Crude was up well over $1 a barrel by the end of the European session, reaching as high as $103.87, its highest level in over a week.

Turning to today, traders will want to keep an eye on several US economic indicators scheduled to be released over the course of the day. Positive news could lead to an increase in risk taking, which may lead to an additional spike in oil prices. That being said, should any of the news come in below forecasts, investors may shift their funds away from higher yielding assets, like oil.

Technical News

EUR/USD

Long term technical indicators show that this pair is trading in neutral territory at the moment, meaning that no definitive direction is known at this time. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

GBP/USD

The weekly chart’s Williams Percent Range is currently at -20. Typically, this is taken as a sign that the pair is in overbought territory and could see a downward correction. Traders may want to go short in their positions, as bearish movement could occur in the near future.

USD/JPY

Technical indicators on the daily chart show that the USD/JPY has entered the oversold territory and may see an upward correction in the near future. These include the Slow Stochastic, which has formed a bullish cross, and the Williams Percent Range, which is currently at -90. Going long may be the wise choice for this pair.

USD/CHF

Technical indicators on both the daily and weekly charts are showing that this pair is range trading at the moment, meaning that no definitive trend is known. Taking a wait and see approach for this pair may be a wise choice, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself.

The Wild Card

GBP/CAD

The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are narrowing, indicating that this pair could see a price shift in the near future. A bearish cross on the same chart’s Slow Stochastic indicates that the price shift could be downward. This may be a good opportunity for forex traders to open short positions ahead of a possible downward breach.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

 

Dollar Weak as Jobless Claims Increased

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – Traders are looking at the recent US jobless claims data to determine whether the recent break from the range of 350,000 to 365,000 is a trend or just a onetime event. The weekly jobless claims released yesterday showed that the jobless claims rose by most since January to hit 380,000. This is way beyond the market expectation of about 355,000 hence raising concerns whether this is a trend or it is a one off event. These concerns are fueled by the Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll data which was also as disappointing showing a rise of 120,000. However, the unemployment rate has not increased but rather has decreased to 8.2 percent from 8.3 percent.

After this report, the greenback fell against most major peers boosting sentiments that the monetary policy should remain accommodative for speedy economic recovery. As the US job report came out disappointing, the Australian labor report showed some hope with employment increase more than it had been estimated. This has led to the strengthening of the Aussie against the greenback in the following sessions. The dollar also decreased over comment by the Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen and New York Fed President William Dudley who supported the low interest rates.

The jobless claims report indicates that jobless claims for the week ended April 7 rose by 13,000 to hit the highest level since January 28. This has come barely a week after another disappointing report from the department of labor showing that the US Non-Farm payrolls expanded less than it had been estimated registering and increase of 120,000 in March against an estimate of 205,000.

After the jobless claim report, the US dollar declined by 0.5 percent against the euro to trade at $1.3178 during the New York session yesterday, the greenback had weakened by 0.2 percent the previous day. The greenback was unchanged against the Yen trading at 80.79 yen per dollar while the Japanese currency decreased against the euro by 0.5 percent to trade at 106.57 yen per euro. The back also declined against the sterling pound during the Asia session.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Pound Advances Against Euro As Italian Bonds Fails to Impress

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin – Despite a trade report showing the trade deficit expanded more than it had been expected, the sterling pound gained against the yen and the euro. Sentiments from the Bank of Japan Governor stating that the bank is ready to make some “powerful easing” the yen has dropped against major peers including the pound. In Europe, economic reports released yesterday failed to make any meaningful impact with the ECB Monthly Report giving nothing unexpected. The euro-zone industrial production reports were mixed counseling their impacts in the market. In addition, investors were looking at the Italian auction which failed to impress hence farcing traders to buy the sterling pound as a safe haven currency.

Technical reports on GBP/USD cross are showing that the failure to generate fresh momentum above 1.6000 and the bearish reversal which have been seen in the recent days may suggest that the market could be looking for a decline in the following sessions. A break and close lower than the next support of 1.5800 would affirm a bearish trend over the next few sessions while a close of above 1.6065 would negate this bearish outlook.

Trade report showed that the trade deficit widened in February more than it had been expected registering 8.77 billion pound trade deficit from a 7.88 billion pounds trade deficit in January. Economists were expecting a trade deficit of about 7.65 billion pounds. The increase if the pound against the euro has been explained as a result of the pound being at a better position than the euro hence investors are looking at it as a safe haven.

The pound registered an increase of 0.1 percent against the euro to trade at 82.36 pence per euro during the London session. It had earlier advanced to 82.27 pence, which is the strongest it has been since January 9. The sterling pound increased by 0.3 percent against the dollar to trade at $1.5959 while it rose by 0.5 percent against the yen to settle at 129.22 yen.

 

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

RBA Interest Rate Cut Prospects Eases on Job Report

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – There has been an increased expectation for a cut in interest rates in the next Reserve Bank of Australia meeting; however, these concerns have been dispelled by the recent labor market report that showed that employers in the country added more than seven times number of workers than it had be expected. The report released yesterday showed that there were 44,000 new jobs created in March against an expectation of 6,500 jobs which analysts had projected. With this data, the expectation for an interest rate cut by about 25 basis point dropped from 97.0 yesterday to 82.0 percent after the report was released.

The Australian currency has experienced a lot of pressure from major currencies due to the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis and the suppressed economic growth in China. The Aussie has lost 3.10 percent against the greenback since March 1, which is the worst performance among major currencies. In comparison, the Canadian dollar has lost 0.98 percent and the New Zealand dollar has lost 1.31 percent against the US dollar making the Australian dollar the worst performer among these three.

However, this trend has changed considerably after the labor market report. It has increased considerably against the Japanese yen and the greenback. Against the US dollar, the Aussie has tested key technical levels and it likely to change the medium term exchange rate prospects. According to Annette Beacher of TD Securities Inc in Singapore, the strong report from the labor market has reminded investors and RBA policy makers that the economy is not falling apart and the expectations of interest rate cut have been considerably diminished.

Following the report, the Australian dollar increased by 0.8 percent versus the US dollar to exchange at $1.0378 after it had touched $1.0386, which is the highest it has been since April 3. The Aussie advanced against the Japanese yen by 0.9 percent to close at 84.01 yen in Sydney.  The New Zealand dollar was also up against the greenback adding 0.3 percent to trade at 82.02 US cents; it had climbed 0.4 percent yesterday. It also rose against the yen by 0.4 percent today to trade at 66.41 yen.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

How to Invest When Central Bankers Rule the World

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Gold and stocks are back up on QE rumours. Or was it the fact that the Eurozone survived another day? Perhaps it’s the RBA rate cut that is expected but never seems to come… Who knows?

One thing we do know is that all this is rather annoying. Whoever heard of investing based on how much money will be printed, whether countries will fail and what disposition central bankers might have to funding their governments’ voracious spending habits?

‘In the last three plus years, central banks have had little choice but to do the unsustainable in order to sustain the unsustainable until others do the sustainable to restore sustainability!’ – PIMCO’s El-Erian

That’s one way of putting it.

El-Erian reckons the central bankers have been covering for their friends the politicians. In most countries around the world, money printing was used to ease the damage that gigantic deficits and debts do to an economy.

There’s Always A Choice

What’s ignorant about this is that the central banks do have a choice. Governments couldn’t have borrowed so much if they knew the central banks wouldn’t play along. Without willing accomplices at the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the rest, deficits wouldn’t be able to reach the levels they are at now.

At least, they wouldn’t remain there for long before descending into a Greek-style debacle. The sovereign debt crisis story would be done and dusted by now.

In fact, it probably never would have occurred. Sovereign debt crises tend to be bad for political careers, creating a disincentive to get there in the first place. This is the whole point of a gold standard, by the way. It creates a wall of restraint between central bankers and politicians because gold can’t be printed. The conflict of interest that the money printers and deficit runners have when they run in cahoots is kept at bay.

Instead, we have this chart. It shows central bank balance sheets (read amount of money) as a % of GDP.

balance sheet as % of GDP

In plain English, central banks have injected vast amounts of money into their economies and GDP hasn’t kept up with the flood. For now, the money is clogged in a banking system with nothing worthwhile to invest in.

At some point, one of two things will happen. Either it will get lent out, or it will be withdrawn from circulation by the same central banks that injected it. Those two scenarios create completely different investment environments.

By allowing the money to flood into the economy (i.e. lending it out), banks would create another boom and bust cycle. Just like the 1920s to the Great Depression, the 1990s to the tech bubble and the 2000s to the global financial crisis. We’d just have another one. Unless the economy can’t be revived with a dose of money adrenalin and the new funds flow towards consumer prices instead. That would mean inflation instead of growth.

Under the second scenario, central banks implement what they call an exit strategy to reduce the amount of money in the economy. But that would mean reversing all those benefits that have been accruing to their mates in government. They would no longer be supporting government bond markets if they tried to bring the money supply down to a reasonable level. In fact, they would be doing the opposite.

And with government debt to GDP near or above 100% in so many places around the world, that would mean disaster. The interest bill on funding government would soar and consume tax revenue.

It’s not likely that central bankers will want to be blamed for the bankruptcy of a major government. So they’ll go back to inflating the money supply as soon as things look bad.

That’s why you hear so much about inflation from us. It seems to be the endgame of so many ways the story of the world economy could play out. What happens in the meantime is a mystery.

Two Strategies

Two of our editors have come up with a way to deal with that. They often ponder when the next QE will be announced, or when Spain will get rescued. But how they invest isn’t dependent on getting that right.

While most analysts and investors focus on anticipating the next move of the world’s policymakers, Kris Sayce is taking a different approach. Each new round of QE or stimulus since has had a shorter and much less significant impact on stock prices.

That’s why he’s taken the view that the QE/stimulus discussion is an attention trap. Instead, he’s focusing on finding good small businesses run by true entrepreneurs. With business models that don’t depend on leverage to increase earnings. More importantly, he’s looking for small businesses that can increase their earnings dramatically, even in the current environment.

And that’s a key point Kris makes in his newest report. If you focus on the small end of town and look at businesses from the ground up, you’re doing work that most people aren’t doing right now. That gives you a massive advantage as an investor.

With nearly half the market currently trading below 20 cents there’s a great opportunity to buy great companies at a big discount. And if and when the next bout of QE hits, it can only lift these share’s even higher! To discover Kris’s five most urgent ‘buys’, click here.

Meanwhile, Murray Dawes has adapted his trading system to fit what he calls ‘an inherently unstable market because of the constant intervention by central planners/bankers.’ He says the usual rules of profitable investing no longer apply. Instead of fundamentals driving markets we have the words of a few men driving them instead.

‘Everyone knows that it is useless trying to fight the Fed,’ says Murray. ‘And so everyone tries to front run them instead. All of a sudden everyone is doing the same thing and this is where the instability lies.’

What Murray is doing very effectively is exploiting the mistakes made by other traders in the current climate. Murray identifies these mistake set-ups in chart price patterns. To find out how he does it… and how you could have made a 114% return in a falling market by acting on his trades… click here and watch this.

Nick Hubble
Editor, Money Morning

The Conference of the Year “After America” DVD

Why You MUST Speculate

Disruptive Technology Stocks For Smart Small-Cap Investors


How to Invest When Central Bankers Rule the World

Two Down and Dirty Ways to Track Down Undervalued Small-Cap Stocks

By MoneyMorning.com.au

US author Michael Lewis’s most famous book is Liar’s Poker.

In it he tells the story of working for U.S. broking firm, Salomon Brothers during the late 1980s. (It’s a must-read book if want to understand the early years of the subprime mortgage market.)

Lewis’s second most famous book – in America anyway – is Moneyball. Written in 2003, Lewis tells the story of cash-strapped baseball team, the Oakland Athletics (the A’s) and their general manager, Billy Beane.

(Unless you’ve got a basic understanding of baseball, we don’t suggest you read it.)

In short, baseball is a game where rich teams usually end up with the best players.

That’s a problem for the poorer teams as it makes it harder for them to compete.

Billy Beane’s task was to find a way to combat this problem. How? Well, even though he couldn’t outspend the big teams… he sure could out-think them…

Looking for Value and Growth in Small Cap Stocks

In any line of business many take conventional thinking as fact. In baseball, the scouts who watched college and high school players were sure they knew what made a first-rate player. If the player fit their conventional thinking they said he had the right “tools”.

Trouble is, not every hot young ball player with the right “tools” becomes a match winner. And the ones that do – and prove themselves on the pitch – don’t come cheap.

This is where Billy Beane had to out-think others. He had to ignore the traditional player evaluation process. And instead use an approach that would help him buy players other teams would overlook – because they didn’t have the right “tools” – but could score enough runs to win him games.

His trick was to use statistical analysis of a potential player’s past performance… something many other talent scouts hadn’t and still don’t think is important.

The result of this analysis was that Beane could find players the market had undervalued. So that even though the A’s wages bill was only one-third that of the big-spending New York Yankees, the team could still compete on almost equal terms.

Now, that’s all well and good for baseball and other sports. But how can it be applied to investing? Simply this: looking for value (and growth) is the core of small-cap investing.

You look for small cap stocks that are undervalued by other investors and where there’s the opportunity for explosive growth. You could call them small-cap Moneyball stocks.

And here are two of the best ways we know you could look for them…

Value the Small Cap Business, Not the Small Cap Share…

The simplest way to protect your wealth is to pay LESS for a share than it is actually worth… That is, try and buy shares worth $1 for 60 cents. And you’ll never go far wrong.

I’m not talking about haggling with your broker, or some kind of discount trading. It’s about knowing the difference between share PRICE and VALUE.

And with the sovereign debt crisis growing, in Europe and the US, it’s as important as ever.

Why?

Because when something “dramatic” happens in the world negative sentiment floods the market. This sentiment drags the price of good small-cap stocks (and bad small-cap stocks) down. And gives you the opportunity to buy good small-caps trading cheaply.

If you know how to find and buy a small-cap trading below its true value, you can use that knowledge to identify hidden profit potential. In any market.

So how do you work out whether you’re getting a fair price?

First, you need to stop thinking about buying small-cap “shares”… and start thinking about buying small-cap “businesses”.

When in Doubt, Follow the Dividend Trail

When you invest in a quality company trading below its intrinsic value, there’s a strong likelihood of it paying off in the long term.

Another rule of thumb when it comes to sniffing out quality companies is to follow the “dividend trail” back to its source.

Many investors write off dividend-paying stocks as “boring”. And unlikely to make you “real” money. But a company with a long track record of making dividend payments is probably less of a risk than a company with NO track record of paying dividends to its shareholders.

The reason being that it (generally) proves the company generates more cash than it needs…

That healthy cash buffer might be what separates a business that’s able to shake off the US debt virus from the ones that can’t.

If you buy a good dividend-paying stock at a fair price, over the long term you should receive a healthy mix of income and growth. And your wealth will be better protected against vicious collapses in the share market.

Play ball!

Kris Sayce
Editor, Australian Small-Cap Investigator


Two Down and Dirty Ways to Track Down Undervalued Small-Cap Stocks

The Deep Ocean Frontier For Mining Profits

By MoneyMorning.com.au

It sounds like science fiction – mining for metals at the floor of the Pacific Ocean, at a depth of four kilometres.

More people have been to the moon than the depths of the ocean. So how on earth could we mine the ocean floor?


How would you operate machinery at that depth? Get the minerals to surface? Or avoid causing environmental damage?

And, more importantly, how are the drill rig operators supposed to have a smoko break?!

When it comes to mining in such extreme places, there are many challenges.

But the relentless global demand for minerals – communicated by higher prices for those minerals – forces us to look for answers to those challenges.

For example, the relentless demand for gold has led a South African gold mine, TauTona, to an incredible depth of four kilometres into the ground. It is so deep into the earth’s crust that the rock they mine is 60′C. They have to refrigerate the air in the mine to avoid cooking the miners alive. Refrigerating large spaces costs a great deal, and is only possible because of ever-rising gold prices.

“Easy to Get” Resources Disappearing

The fact is that all the easy gold has gone. It is getting harder – and therefore more expensive – to mine gold. So if buyers want gold, they need to pay more to cover the costs of getting it from increasingly extreme places.

It’s the same story with oil. The global economy now uses over a billion barrels every fortnight. Our economy’s addiction to it forces companies to operate in some very unstable countries in the world, such as Iraq, Sudan, and Libya. We have also had to become more inventive, and develop new technologies to access unconventional oil.

This demand pushes explorers into challenging terrain. Karoon Gas (ASX:KAR) is drilling for oil in the Tupi field off the Brazilian coast. Floating two kilometres above the ocean floor makes things hard enough. But once drilling starts, there are five kilometres of rock to get through.

This is the reality of modern exploration. Our favourite commodities are getting harder to find. We have to go to greater extremes to get them. We have to become more inventive.

The evolution of hard rock mining took us from surface rock, to open pits, and then deep underground.

But land only takes up about a third of the planet’s surface. And we have explored a great deal of it already.

The ocean floor, however, takes up two thirds of the planet.

The next logical step in the evolution of hard-rock mining is to head for the ocean floor.

This may sound impossible, but mining companies trialled this successfully in the 1980s.

But this stopped when the United Nations (UN), which controls these international waters, wouldn’t grant the miners title.

However in 2001 the UN implemented its ‘Law of the Sea’, and started signing exploration contracts for prospective miners and governments. So getting ‘title’ is now possible.

And thanks to progress in the offshore oil and gas industry, mining the ocean floor is not the massive technological leap it once was. A growing number of players have been focusing on this ‘frontier’ in recent years, and things are gaining traction.

Underwater Ocean Mining – A New Frontier

In some ways, the deposits found on the ocean floor are easier to access than on land. Deep-sea vents leave large mineral deposits behind that stand for millennia, like giant termite hills, and can be very rich in minerals such as copper and gold. No actual sub-surface mining is needed. The machinery just needs to break bits off.

A Canadian-listed company, Nautilus Minerals (TSE:NUS), has been exploring and mining these old deep-sea vents around Papua New Guinea and Fiji. The results are impressive. The copper grade of its underwater deposits is 7.3%. To put that in context, the average grade of the land-based copper mines is just 0.5%.

Australia’s highest-grade copper project, Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR), is lower at 5.6%. True, Sandfire also has 1.9 grams of gold per tonne as well. But Nautilus outdoes it here too, as it has 3.6 grams per tonne of gold. This is virgin territory. And because of that, these underwater deposits can have the kinds of grades you can only dream of from a land-based mine.

But Nautilus does face some daunting challenges. It still needs to break down the deposit using heavy machinery underwater. And at the moment this is only possible by using modified versions of what you would find on land.

Underwater equipment: mining meets ’20,000 leagues under the sea’

Underwater equipment: mining meets '20,000 leagues under the sea'

Source: Nautilus Presentation

When operating underwater there is no control of where the rock chips and debris go, which makes it messy. But one other deep-sea mining company that caught my attention will have a much simpler mining method.

Deep Green Resources, which is not listed yet, is targeting deposits at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean. It plans to collect the mineral-rich nodules (tennis-ball-sized rocks), scattered across the ocean floor. It will be more like harvesting potatoes underwater than mining.

Due to the unique combination of currents, pressure, and depth, these nodules form over time from the minerals dissolved in the water. And they are distributed evenly over a wide area between Hawaii and Mexico.

What makes these nodules so valuable are the metals, such as manganese, nickel and copper, within them. The value of these minerals combined would be the equivalent of having a deposit with a 10% copper grade. This is exceptional, and is 20 times the global average for copper projects.

It is estimated there could be almost 500 million tonnes of these nodules scattered across the company’s title. This puts Deep Green in the giants league, and would make it competitive with each of the biggest manganese, copper and nickel miners in the world.

If a project this big, at this grade, was on land, BHP or another major would have bought it already.

Mining the Ocean Floor – Sound Too Hard?

That’s what many experts thought when oil drillers first suggested floating oil rigs to target offshore deposits. Today offshore rigs accounts for a third of the world’s oil production.

The bottom line is that this would be commercially viable if the value of the minerals covers the cost of sucking the pebbles up from the ocean floor to a boat, and then transporting it to land to process them to a saleable product.

Compared to the immense cost of moving billions of tonnes of rock just to get to a land-based deposit, it may even be cheaper.

It is early days, but this is clearly the pointy end in the evolution of mining. The opportunity is there, and so is the technology. All that is needed is some risk-appetite, hard work, and pioneering spirit.

I’m not sure where we go next once we are mining the ocean floor…

Next stop, the moon?

Dr. Alex Cowie
Editor, Diggers & Drillers

From the Archives…

Disruptive Technology Stocks For Smart Small-Cap Investors
2012-04-06 – Kris Sayce

ASX 200: This Market is Toast
2012-04-05 – Murray Dawes

Why Every Bank Will Soon Be a Tax Collector for Every Government Everywhere
2012-04-04 – Merryn Somerset Webb

Not Even Saudi Arabia Can Save Us From High Oil Prices
2012-04-03 – Jason Simpkins

Good News For Oil and Resource Investors
2012-04-02 – Dr. Alex Cowie


The Deep Ocean Frontier For Mining Profits

EURUSD’s bounce extends to 1.3212

EURUSD’s bounce from 1.3033 extends to as high as 1.3212. However, the rise is treated as correction of the downtrend from 1.3385, another fall to re-test 1.3003 support would likely be seen after correction, a breakdown below this level will signal resumption of the longer term downtrend from 1.3486 (Feb 24 high), then deeper decline towards 1.2624 (Jan 13 low) could be seen.

eurusd
Daily Forex Forecast

Is a Water War between India and Pakistan Imminent?

A peaceful and stable Pakistan is integral to western efforts to pacify Afghanistan, but Islamabad’s obsessions with its giant eastern neighbor may render such issues moot.

Since partition in 1947, Pakistan and India have fought four armed conflicts, in 1947, 1965, 1971 (which led to the establishment of Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan) and the 1999 Kargil clash.

With the exception of the 1971 conflict, which involved rising tensions in East Pakistan, the others have all involved issues arising from control of Kashmir.

But now a rising new element of discord threatens to precipitate a new armed clash between southern Asia’s two nuclear powers – water.

Lahore’s “The Nation’ newspaper on Sunday published an editorial entitled, “War with India inevitable: Nizami,” the newspaper’s Editor-in-Chief and Nazaria-i-Pakistan Trust Chairman, Majid Nizami, asked his fellow citizens to prepare for a war with India over water issues. Nizami told those attending the “Pakistan-India relations; Our rulers- new wishes” session at Aiwan-e-Karkunan Tehrik-e-Pakistan, which he chaired, “Indian hostilities and conspiracies against the country will never end until she is taught a lesson.”

While The Nation is a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group, with a circulation of roughly 20,000, it has a website, and what’s more, close ties to Pakistan’s highest military circles, so Nizami’s comments should hardly be rejected out of hand.

Furthermore, Niazmi’s audience included some high ranking Pakistani officials, including Nazaria-i-Pakistan Vice Chairman Dr Rafique Ahmed; Pakistan Movement Workers-Trust Chairman, retired Colonel Jamshed Ahmed Tareen; former Foreign Secretary Shamshad Ahmed Khan; Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan Secretary General Qari Zawar Bahadur; retired Air Marshall Khurished Anwar Mirza; retired Brigadier Hamid Saeed Akhtar and Jamaat-e-Islami Lahore Chief Ameer-ul-Azeem, among others.

At issue are Pakistan’s concerns over India’s ongoing construction of two hydroelectric dams on the upper reaches of the Indus River. Islamabad is concerned that the 45 megawatt, 190-foot tall Nimoo-Bazgo concrete dam 44 megawatt Chutak hydroelectric power project will reduce the Indus River’s flow towards Pakistan, as they are capable of storing up to 4.23 billion cubic feet of water, violating the terms of the bilateral 1960 Indus Water Treaty. The Indus, which begins in Indian-controlled Kashmir, is crucial to both India and Pakistan, but is currently experiencing water flows down 30 percent from its normal levels. The Indus is Pakistan’s primary freshwater source, on which 90 percent of its agriculture depends. According to a number of Pakistani agriculture and water experts, the nation is heading towards a massive water shortage in the next couple of years due to insufficient water management practices and storage capacity, which will be exacerbated by the twin Indian hydroelectric projects, as they will further diminish the Indus’ flow.

So, if push comes to shove, who’s got Pakistan’s back?

China.

During the Boao Forum for Asia, on China’s southern Hainan island on 1 April, Pakistan and China agreed to support each other “in all circumstances” and vowed to uphold their sovereignty and territorial integrity at all costs. Pakistani Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani told Chinese Executive Vice Premier Li Keqiang, “China’s friend is our friend, and China’s enemy is ours,” adding Pakistan considers China’s security as its own security and supports China’s position on Taiwan, Tibet and Xinqiang. Li replied that China would support Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in every situation, telling Gilani, “No matter what changes take place at international level, we will uphold Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

It might be noted here that in October 1962, coinciding with the Cuban missile crisis, India and China fought a brief but bitter war along their disputed Himalayan border.

Fifty years later, China and India have yet to resolve their border issues over Kashmir and China continues to claim most of India’s Arunachal Pradesh to the base of the Himalayas in the absence of any definitive treaty delineating the border. Kashmir remains the site of the world’s largest and most militarized territorial dispute with portions under the de facto administration of China (Aksai Chin), India (Jammu and Kashmir), and Pakistan (Azad Kashmir and Northern Areas).

No guesses therefore as to whom Beijing might back should Pakistani-Indian tensions continue to rise.

Accordingly, to keep the peace, one might paraphrase Ronald Reagan in Berlin – “Prime Minister Singh, tear down those dams!”

But don’t bet on it.
Source: http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Asia/Pakistan-and-India-to-go-to-War-over-Water.html

By. John C.K. Daly of Oilprice.com