Aussie Paring Losses on China PMI

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – The Australian dollar started the week on a decline after a report released earlier today showed that the Producer Price Index fell. This led to the weakening of the Australian dollar against 16 major currencies. The unexpected results have strengthened sentiments that Reserve Bank of Australia will make an interest rates cut in their next meeting. According to some analysts, there might be more than one rate cuts within the second quarter of the year; one is expected in early May while the other is expected in June. Such sentiments have been spurred by the current rate of growth in the country which is below trend.

After the PPI report, the Australian dollar fell by 0.4 percent against the dollar to trade at $1.0339 and declined by 0.7 percent against the yen to trade at 84.08. However, the Australian dollar have pared these loses after the announcement of the China HSBC PMI. The report has showed that Chinese economy has expanded marginally after registering a 49.1. The previous reading was at 48.3. The weak PPI had pushed the AUD/USD to as low as 1.0325 but later spiked to 1.0348 after the positive report from China. However, the Aussie could not hold this gain and retreated to $1.0340.

Analysts are expecting the Aussie to continue declining as the just published weak PPI is very much indicative of a weaker CPI. The two indexes have a 0.5 correlation. The chances of an easier monetary policy are higher as RBA have clearly indicated that poor CPI would led to a possible monetary policy review.

However, Australian Dollar decline is limited by the decision by the IMF to add 430 billion to prevent the Europe’s Debt Crisis from affecting global economy. The G-20 Finance Ministers have almost doubled the IMF’s firepower. The addition brings a positive tone in dealing with the effects of the European debt crisis. However, the eventual effects on the Euro-zone member countries will be measured by the ability to change structural issues facing the nations.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

EUR Stages Broad Recovery

Source: ForexYard

The euro received a boost following the most recent German Ifo Business Climate figure to close out last week’s trading session. The better than expected news resulted in the EUR/USD shooting up close to 100 pips to finish out the day at 1.3219. Turning to this week, traders can expect market volatility as the US is scheduled to release a batch of potentially significant indicators, including Tuesday’s CB Consumer Confidence figure and Wednesday’s FOMC Economic Projections. Today, traders will want to pay attention to the German Flash Services and Flash Manufacturing PMI’s. Better than expected results could help the euro extend its current trend.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Drops vs. Main Currency Rivals

The dollar reported losses against virtually all of its main currency rivals on Friday, including the euro and British pound. Positive news out of Germany, the biggest economy in the euro-zone, led to a 95 pip spike for the EUR/USD. The pair eventually closed out the week at 1.3219. Meanwhile, a significantly better than expected UK Retail Sales figure resulted in major gains for the GBP/USD. The pair moved up over 100 pips on Friday to close out the day at 1.6130. Against the Japanese yen, the greenback reversed gains made during overnight trading and eventually finished the week at 81.53, the same level as its low for the day.

This week, traders will want to pay attention to several potentially important US indicators. Housing data on both Tuesday and Thursday, FOMC Economic Projections on Wednesday and the Advanced GDP figure on Friday are all expected to generate significant market volatility when they are announced. Turning to today, euro-zone news is likely to dictate the direction the markets take. Analysts are warning that given the current state of the economy in Spain and political uncertainty in France, the euro may not be able to hold onto its recent gains. Any negative euro-zone news today could result in the dollar recouping some of its recent losses vs. the common-currency.

EUR – Euro Turns Bullish, But For How Long?

The euro saw gains against both the US dollar and Japanese yen on Friday, following a better than expected German Ifo Business Climate figure which led to some risk taking in the marketplace. The 95 pip boost the EUR/USD received on Friday resulted in the best weekly performance for the pair since February. Against the JPY, the euro shot up around 80 pips during the morning session before leveling off during mid-day trading. The EUR/JPY closed out the week at 107.78. That being said, the news was not all positive for the euro. The EUR/CHF finished out the week at 1.2012, dangerously close to the psychologically significant 1.2000 level.

This week, analysts are warning that the euro may have a hard time holding onto its recent gains against the dollar and yen. While a successful Spanish bond auction did help calm fears regarding the euro-zone debt crisis, investors are still concerned regarding the prospects of economic recovery in the region. Furthermore political uncertainty in France may lead to some risk aversion in the marketplace. Today, traders will want to pay attention to Flash Services and Flash Manufacturing PMI’s out of both France and Germany. Should the indicators come in above expected levels, the euro could extend its current trend.

AUD – Risk Taking Gives Aussie a Boost

Positive news out of the euro-zone and England led to some risk taking in the marketplace on Friday, resulting in gains for the Australian dollar. The AUD/USD was up 70 pips for the day to close out the week at 1.0378. Against the Japanese yen, the aussie gained more than 60 pips before staging a slight downward reversal. The AUD/JPY eventually finished the day at 84.62.

This week, AUD traders will want to pay attention to news out of both the euro-zone and US. Any positive announcements out of the euro-zone could lead to additional risk taking in the marketplace, which may lead to additional gains for the aussie. That being said, several potentially significant economic indicators are scheduled to be released out of the US in the coming days. Should they come in above their forecasted levels, the AUD may reverse some of its recent gains vs. the greenback.

Crude Oil – Euro-Zone Data Boosts Oil Prices

Investor risk taking resulted in the price of oil going up on Friday. The better than expected German Ifo Business Climate figure helped calm some fears regarding the euro-zone economic recovery and signaled an increase in demand for oil in the region. The price of crude was up close to $2 a barrel before a slight downward correction took place. The commodity eventually closed out the week at $104.04.

Turning to this week, oil traders will want to monitor the news out of the US. Any positive developments may lead to gains for the USD, which could end up bringing the price of oil down. Typically, a bullish dollar means that oil becomes more expensive for international buyers, leading to a drop in price. Furthermore, with euro-zone worries still on the minds of investors, the markets could see some risk aversion in the coming days, which could cause oil to turn downward.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic appears to be forming a bearish cross, indicating that downward movement could occur in the near future. This theory is supported by the Williams Percent Range on the same chart which has crossed into overbought territory. Traders may want to go short in their positions.

GBP/USD

The weekly chart’s Williams Percent Range has crossed into overbought territory in a sign that this pair could see a bearish correction in the coming days. In another sign that downward movement may occur, the daily chart’s Relative Strength Index is moving up and may cross into the overbought region shortly. Traders may want to go short in their positions.

USD/JPY

Most long term technical indicators show this pair trading in neutral territory, meaning that no definitive trend is known at this time. That being said, the daily chart’s MACD/OsMA has formed a bullish cross. Traders will want to keep an eye on other indicators on this chart, as they may provide further clues as to a possible impending upward correction.

USD/CHF

A bullish cross on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic appears to be forming, in a sign that upward movement could occur in the near future. In addition, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart is currently at -80, right on the border of being in oversold territory. Going long may be the preferred strategy for this pair.

The Wild Card

GBP/AUD

Both the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic and MACD/OsMA have formed bearish crosses, in a sign that this pair could see downward movement in the near future. Furthermore, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart is currently in overbought territory. This may be a good time for forex traders to open short positions ahead of a possible bearish correction.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

 

The Week Ahead: Major Events April 23-27

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – Last week we saw the US jobless claims remain high heightening concerns about the US economy. Moreover, decision to keep Thomas Jordan as the SNB chairman helped to improve investor confidence in the nation’s monetary policy. This week is a busy week for the forex market.

Monday 23

The release of the Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI has shown a development in the Chinese economy as it increased from 48.3 to 49.1. A reading above 50 shows that the economy is expanding while below 50 shows deterioration in the economy. This report was released at 0230h GMT.

Another report that is worth looking at is the Markit Economics’ report on German Purchasing Manager Index services. This report was released at 0728h GMT and came in better than the market had projected. The report showed that Germany PMI Services was at 52.6 from previous reading of 52.1; the market was expecting a 52.3 reading for the index.

Tuesday 24

There are two reports that traders ought to keep their eyes on. The US Consumer Board Consumer Confidence report and the US New Home Sales report. The US CB Consumer Confidence report will be released at 1400h GMT and it is expected to show a little decline to 70.1 from 70.2 registered previously. A high level of consumer confidence indicates economic expansion. The US New Home Sales report to be released at the same time is expected to show an increase to 321,000 from 313,000 registered in February. Other reports that are expected to have a considerable impact in the market are the Trade Balance and UBS Consumption Indicator reports from Switzerland.

Wednesday 25

The UK GDP and the US Core Durable Goods Orders reports will start the day at 0830h and 1230h GMT respectively. A 0.1 percent growth in the UK GDP is expected. The US Core Durable Goods Orders is expected to increase by 0.6 percent. The FOMC US rate decision is scheduled to be announced at 1630h and is expected to remain as it is currently.

Thursday 26

The European Monetary Union Economic Confidence for April is expected to be released at 0900h GMT. This report shows consumer confidence in the economic activity for the region. The US jobless claims and Pending Home Sales reports will catch the market’s attention. These reports will be released at 1230h and 1400h respectively.

Friday 27

The US GDP is expected to be the main event for the day. Analysts are expecting that the US GDP grew by 2.6 percent from a 3.0 percent registered in the last quarter.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Why Natural Gas Is Still My Favourite Resource Opportunity

By MoneyMorning.com.au

The old investment saying is, “buy low and sell high”.

If you do that with every investment you make, you won’t go far wrong.

But what if the investment you like, keeps getting cheaper? In fact, what if the price had nearly halved since the start of the year?

We’d say that makes it even more of a buy.


Because while the commodity price has dropped like a stone, the stocks that are searching for this falling commodity have gone up… some have more than doubled.

And as we’ll show you today, as long as there’s a demand for it, it almost doesn’t matter what the commodity price does…

Natural Gas Just Got Even Cheaper

For the past four years, natural gas has been one of the worst performing commodities. It fell 24.87% in 2008, -0.89% in 2009, -21.18% in 2010 and -32.15% in 2011.

This year, it is already down 39.8%. As this chart shows:

And it has halved since last November.

Only a brave investor would bet against it falling further. Even news this morning that Egypt is cutting off natural gas supplies to Israel is unlikely to give the natural gas price a boost.

But despite that, we’re still big buyers of natural gas stocks. We’ll explain why in a moment, but first…

At the Port Phillip Publishing, “After America” conference we got talking to a veteran of the oil and natural gas industry.

He’s been in the game for 30 years. What he didn’t know about the industry wasn’t worth knowing.

After your editor had just spent the previous 20 minutes talking up natural gas, this gas veteran was quick to bail us up in a corner to tell us we’d gotten it all wrong – the natural gas market was oversupplied, and the natural gas price was going lower.

We said we agreed.

But that wouldn’t stop us buying natural gas stocks.

And actually, this confirmation by an industry insider of what we already knew made it likely we’d buy even more natural gas stocks. Here’s why…

Triple-Digit Percentage Gains

The area of the market we look at is small-caps.

These are some of the tiniest and – dare we say it – riskiest stocks on the market.

On any given day their stock prices can rise or fall by 10%, 20% or as we showed you last week, by 50% or 100%.

Why do you get this kind of volatile action? The answer is simple. These companies are involved in the early stage of resource development.

In many cases, they own nothing more than a permit from a government department granting them the right to drill for oil, gas, gold or copper on a specific patch of land.

And that’s it. They don’t actually own any natural gas… or oil… or gold. They just own a piece of paper.

The company’s task is to prove to the market as quickly as possible (before the money runs out) that they have an economically viable resource.

That takes time. And as we’ve mentioned, money.

Remember that many of these permit areas cover blocks of land that are hundreds of thousands of square kilometres. The company can’t afford to drill a hole in every square inch, so it has to do some initial testing and figure out where it stands the best chance of striking oil or natural gas.

That costs money.

Once it’s done that, it then has to decide how many drill holes it can afford and how deep it can afford to go.

If it decides to drill many holes to cover a wider area, it may mean it can’t afford to drill as deep. That could mean it misses striking oil or gas by just a few feet.

If it decides to drill fewer holes so it can drill deeper, it could mean it won’t drill that one extra hole where it could have struck gas.

High Risk = High Rewards for Natural Gas Investors

So you see what we mean. This is high stakes gambling by oil and gas executives. One right or wrong decision could be the difference between a company going bust or a company making its shareholders a triple-digit percentage gain.

It’s for that reason why the falling natural gas price almost doesn’t matter. And why – to some extent – the oversupply of natural gas doesn’t matter either.

With the stakes so high and the rewards so great, natural gas companies and shareholders will always look to make a big buck where they can. And just because there’s a glut of gas, it doesn’t mean gas companies will stop looking for it.

As the recent performance of natural gas stocks shows, with so much at stake and the rewards so high, if a small-cap company achieves the improbable and strikes natural gas, there’s little doubt it will have a huge impact on the company’s share price.

So yes, we agree with the natural gas insider who tells us the gas glut will last for years. And we agree that it could keep natural gas prices down for the near future.

But that doesn’t mean you can’t make money from investing in natural gas stocks. What’s important isn’t so much the price of the commodity, but how confident you are that the companies you invest in have a good chance of proving they’ve found a viable asset.

Cheers.
Kris.

P.S. We’re continuing to back a handful of gas and oil plays in Australian Small-Cap Investigator. We believe that each one has a great chance to capitalise on the growth in the natural gas and oil market. If you’d like to take out a no-obligation trial, click here for details…

The Conference of the Year “After America” DVD

Why You MUST Speculate

Disruptive Technology Stocks For Smart Small-Cap Investors


Why Natural Gas Is Still My Favourite Resource Opportunity

Why Wall Street Can’t Escape the Perils of the Spanish Economy

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Despite all of its best hopes, Wall Street will never escape what’s happening in the Eurozone.

The 1 trillion euro ($1.3 trillion) slush fund created to keep the chaos at bay is not big enough. And it never was.

Spanish banks are now up to their proverbial eyeballs in debt and the austerity everybody thinks is working so great in Greece will eventually push the Spanish economy over the edge.

Spanish unemployment is already at 23% and climbing while the official Spanish government projections call for an economic contraction of 1.7% this year. Spain’s economy appears to be falling into its second recession in three years.

I’m not trying to ruin your day with this. But ignore what is going on in the Spanish economy at your own risk.

Or else you could go buy a bridge from the parade of Spanish officials being trotted out to assure the world that the markets somehow have it all wrong.

But the truth is they don’t.

EU banks are more vulnerable now than they were at the beginning of this crisis and risks are tremendously concentrated rather than diffused.

You will hear more about this in the weeks to come as the mainstream media begins to focus on what I am sharing with you today.

The Tyranny of Numbers in the Eurozone

Here is the cold hard truth about the Eurozone.

European banks reportedly will have more than 600 billion euros ($787 billion) in redemptions by the end of the year. They come at a time when the banks have sustained billions in capital losses they can’t make up.

Worse, they’ve borrowed a staggering 316.3 billion euros ($414.9 billion) from the ECB through March, which is 86% more than the 169.8 billion euros ($222.7 billion) they borrowed in February. This accounts for 28% of total EU-area borrowings from the EU, according to the ECB.

There will undoubtedly be more borrowing and more losses ahead as interest rates rise further.

The process will not be pleasant:

  • Credit default swap costs will rise, pushing debt yields to new highs while at the same time making fresh Spanish debt cost-prohibitive;
  • The Spanish government will force national banks to buy debt at higher rates, triggering capital losses on their bonds;
  • Those same losses will trigger margin calls, forcing banks to unload segments of their debt and equity portfolios;
  • Rinse and repeat steps 1-3 until there is no more money, the public revolts, the EU splinters, or all three.

Unfortunately, this vicious cycle is already under way.

The Big Boys Go on the Offensive

Spanish 10-year bond yields pushed up to 6.07%. (Yields and prices go in opposite directions. If one is rising, the other is falling.) They relaxed slightly but…

At the same time, Spanish credit default swaps touched record levels, reaching 502.46 basis points according to Bloomberg News. That process actually began in February when traders starting upping the ante on Spanish debt.

Source: Bloomberg

Credit default swaps pay the buyer face value if the borrower – in this instance Spain – fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. They’re priced in basis points. A basis point equals $1,000 on each $10 million in debt.

Wall Street sells them as insurance against default.

In reality though, they are like buying fire insurance on your neighbor’s house in that you now have an incentive to burn it down.

Let me briefly explain how the playbook works.

The big boys are going on the offensive and pushing the cost of insuring Spanish debt to new highs because they know that the Spanish government prefers more bailouts to pain. It’s the same thing they did with Greece, Ireland and Italy.

At the same time, they’re shorting Spanish debt knowing full well that there will be massive capital losses as Spanish bonds deteriorate.

What these fiscal pirates are counting on is the ECB and Spanish government riding to the rescue.

At that point, they will sell their swaps and go long Spanish bonds, thus netting themselves a two-fer.

This could be a good thing for savvy individual investors– at least temporarily.

The markets have become addicted to bad news. We cheer when central bankers step in with quantitative easing, conveniently forgetting things are so terrible we “need” it in the first place.

We’d rather take one more “hit” than step away from the narcotics of cheap money.

That’s why I expect a rally when the ECB is forced to step in no later than Q3 2012.

Keith Fitz-Gerald
Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning (USA)

Publisher’s Note: This is an edited version of an article that originally appeared in Money Morning (USA)

From the Archives…

Small Caps – A Way to Bet on Developing Markets…Without Investing Overseas
2012-04-013 – Kris Sayce

All Transactions to be Conducted in the Presence of a Tax Collector
2012-04-12 – Simon Black

How You Can Use Government Intervention to Profit on the Stock Market
2012-04-11 – Kris Sayce

Australia – The Pacific Pawn in USA Versus China
2012-04-10 – Dr. Alex Cowie

If Ron Paul Were US President…
2012-04-09 – Mark Tier


Why Wall Street Can’t Escape the Perils of the Spanish Economy

The Israeli Natural Gas Connection

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Most attention in the Middle East is now transfixed on the ongoing crisis in Syria, the renewed uncertainty after the Egyptian elections, and the developing standoff between Iran and the West.

However, something else is happening offshore that may be a positive game changer.

Natural gas development, and apparently a lot of it.


This interest converges in two unlikely places – off the island of Cyprus, and in the waters of the Mediterranean shelf off Israel.

While both fields carry the potential to redraw the natural gas sourcing equation in a wider region between the Levant and Western Europe, it is their impact upon two factors that are most important.

The first is the continuing reliance of Europe on increasing Russian natural gas imports.

These new finds are hardly likely to change the overall dynamic of the import flow. But Cyprus could be a welcome addition to non-Russian sourcing coming across Turkey to Europe from the Caspian, Iraq, and Northern Africa.

The second factor, however, may be far more important.

Israel Seeks Greater Energy Independence

Israel depends upon Egypt for much of its natural gas, a proposition that may become more problematic as new political leadership in Cairo sends signals of renewed hostility to Tel Aviv.

That makes the Tamar (discovered in 2009) and Leviathan (in 2010) offshore fields so important from the standpoint of Israeli security. These are large fields – natural gas reserves are estimated at 260 billion cubic meters (9.2 trillion cubic feet) at Tamar and 453 billion at Leviathan.

The fields dwarf Israeli domestic needs, meaning a rising volume of gas will be exported. That is already prompting new competition over who will control those exports and where the new riches will be moving.

U.S.-based Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL) is drilling at Tamar, the field that will come on line first, in conjunction with several Israeli-based companies. Part of the total reserves from both of the fields, about 130 billion cubic meters, has already been sold under long-term agreements to consumers in the Israeli domestic market.

Commercial planning is currently underway on the remaining volumes put in the global market.

Currently under consideration is an option to construct a floating terminal for liquefied natural gas (LNG), an LNG plant on the Israeli Mediterranean coast, and even the capacity to liquefy gas in the south of Israel, to have direct access, via the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, to the most attractive Asian gas markets.

In other words, these discoveries are going to be affecting areas of the world well beyond where the natural gas is sourced. And that is setting the stage for another contest between Russian natural gas giant Gazprom and the European Union in Brussels, which is intent on lowering continental reliance on Russia for natural gas imports.

Gazprom has repeatedly tried to gain access to the Israeli fields. In late 2010, the government-controlled company announced plans to establish a joint venture for development. Gazprom also said it planned to buy a 50% stake in the Israeli private company owning the field licenses.

These plans failed.

Competition For Israeli Natural Gas

Still, Gazprom has not lost interest in these natural gas projects. According to Russian media reports, it continues talks with local Delek Energy about a possible collaboration on the Leviathan project. And according to Israeli newspapers, several options are under consideration, including Gazprom’s participation in a consortium to develop the field or the purchase of natural gas from the Leviathan for further delivery to Mediterranean countries.

Gazprom Swiss subsidiary Gazprom Marketing & Trading Switzerland (GMTS), founded in 2011, is going to sell Tamar gas. GMTS reported that it has signed the corresponding protocol of intent with Levant LNG (an already existing South Korean-Israeli joint venture).

A preliminary engineering study for the determination of supplies is underway. GMTS wants to start LNG deliveries in 2017, according to a report to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange from an Israeli company participating.

Levant LNG plans to buy gas from Tamar, using a floating LNG plant. In November of 2011, the Tamar project consortium signed an agreement with Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering on the construction of floating installations for the production, storage, and shipment of gas from the field. Daewoo previously reported that it plans to start producing LNG in late 2016.

All of this means that, not being able to control production, Russian commercial interests may still have a thing or two to say about where that production goes. The competition for Israeli natural gas will pit the European and Asian markets against each other.

Of course, the amount of additional availability moving from Tamar and Leviathan into the export market will not be decisive for either major market. But there is one truism about international natural gas trade. Finding an additional source for 3% or more of demand, allows all other pipeline and LNG prices to be renegotiated – downwards.

That places Israel squarely in the middle of changes in much broader natural gas markets.

Dr. Kent Moors
Contributing Editor, Money Morning (USA)

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in Energy & Oil Investor.

From the Archives…

Small Caps – A Way to Bet on Developing Markets…Without Investing Overseas
2012-04-013 – Kris Sayce

All Transactions to be Conducted in the Presence of a Tax Collector
2012-04-12 – Simon Black

How You Can Use Government Intervention to Profit on the Stock Market
2012-04-11 – Kris Sayce

Australia – The Pacific Pawn in USA Versus China
2012-04-10 – Dr. Alex Cowie

If Ron Paul Were US President…
2012-04-09 – Mark Tier


The Israeli Natural Gas Connection

Crude Oil Outlook This Week

Source: ForexYard

printprofile

Despite Crude Oil’s gains towards the end of last week, the commodity during last weeks trading, saw no clear trend or any major movements.

At the end of last week,crude oil appreciated almost 0.8 percent to trade above the $103.00 level,although overall gains for the whole week were minimal.

There a number of news events on the economic calendar this week which could possibly affect the price movements of crude oil. Such events include the FOMC Meeting,U.S Home Sales and the U.S Jobless Claims Weekly Update.

News or figures from Canada will also play a role in price movements as the nation is strongly linked to crude oil. Canada’s Retail Sales report will be released this week which could affect the Canadian Dollar and as a result, affect oil prices.

Last week saw both the Euro and The Australian dollar strengthen against the U.S dollar, which had a positive affect on commodity prices. If these two major currencies continue to make gains over the greenback this week,it could have a positive affect on commodities, including the price of crude oil.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

AUDUSD is forming a sideways consolidation

AUDUSD is forming a sideways consolidation in a range between 1.0225 and 1.0463. As long as 1.0463 key resistance holds, the price action in the range is treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 1.0855. Another fall to test 1.0225 would likely be seen later today, a breakdown below this level could signal resumption of the downtrend. On the upside, a break above 1.0451 will indicate that the fall from 1.0855 has completed at 1.0225 already then the following upward movement could bring price back to 1.0600-1.0700 area.

audusd

Daily Forex Forecast

Bullion Market Outlook For This Week

Source: ForexYard

printprofile

Both gold and silver during last weeks trading did not show any major movements or solid directions, with the yellow metal weakening for the majority of the week whilst silver prices traded slightly up. During last week, gold prices fell 1.05 percent whilst its fellow metal silver slightly appreciated just over 1 percent.

Despite gold’s weak performance in the previous week, silver managed to make some gains. Its possible that that the metal’s prices were boosted by a strong Euro and Australian Dollar , which both strengthened against the U.S Dollar.

There are a number of financial reports due for release this week which could affect precious metal price movements. In particular, there are a number of U.S-related reports including New Home Sales report,Core Durable Goods Orders,Interest Rate Decision,FOMC Statement as well as a Speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

If the results of the U.S-related reports turn out to be positive, it could boost the greenback and consequently push gold and silver prices down.On the other hand,bullion prices could be boosted if the reports display negative or unexpected results, which would put downward pressure on the U.S currency.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.