InvestMacro Forex News

By CentralBankNews.info
    Nigeria’s central bank held its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR steady at 12 percent, as mostly expected, but raised the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) on private sector deposits by 300 basis points to 15 percent, saying “safeguarding short run macroeconomic stability under the circumstances required firm and bold measures.”

By CentralBankNews.info
    Armenia’s central bank maintained its benchmark rate at 7.5 percent and said inflation was expected to continue to decline in the third quarter to the lower limit of the bank’s tolerance range.
     The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), which cut its rate by 25 basis points in February, said lower economic growth was mainly due to the construction industry but aggregate demand should improve in the second half of the year due to the impact of lower interest rates and expansionary fiscal policy.
    Armenia’s headline inflation rate eased to 4.6 percent in February, the central bank said, from January’s 5.53 percent, continuing its decline since hitting a recent high of 9.24 in September.
    Armenia’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 from the same 2012 quarter for average growth last year of 5.1 percent.
    The central bank in February projected 2014 growth of between 5.4 percent and 6.1 percent, mainly due to better output from industry and services.
    The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has approved a 38-month US$127.6 million facility to support the country’s economy, projects 4.3 percent growth in 2014 and 4.5 percent in 2015.
    The central bank targets annual inflation of 4.0 percent, plus/minus 1.5 percentage points.

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U.S. Consumer Confidence reached a 6-year high, rising to 82.3 from an expected 78.7; while U.S. new homes sales missed the expectations coming in at 440K versus the forecast of 447K.

After promising gains during the European session, USD/CHF advance stopped at 0.8852, around the current pivot zone which extends up to 0.8868.

Technical analysis

The bullish swing from last week doesn’t necessarily mark the end of the bearish trend on USD/CHF, at least not without further confirmations. The current pivot area offered strong support in February, and it’s providing equally strong resistance now. A bearish trendline from January-February adds to the current resistance, as does the 200 simple moving average on the 4H timeframe and possibly the 31.8% Fibonacci retracement between 0.9155-0.8698. Furthermore, observing only the large swings, USD/CHF has yet to make a higher swing high in the current downtrend.

A rally above the 0.8852-0.8868 pivot area will invalidate the high-low configuration of this downtrend, increasing the chances for further USD/CHF gains towards 0.8980, with 0.8927 being a possible intermediary stop.

Failure to break above the pivot area can lead to additional choppy price action between 0.8870 and 0.8780, until this period of uncertainty passes.

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Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Technical Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

By OilPrice.com

The standoff between the U.S. and the EU on one hand, and Russia on the other, intensified pretty quickly late last week. The U.S. quickly slapped heavier sanctions on Russia after its annexation of Crimea, leading to a mutual escalation of retaliatory measures. However, it appears that the West gained a bit of leverage at the moment, as the Russian economy has shown some cracks amid uncertainty over how bad this is going to get.

The Russian stock exchange MICEX dropped 3% on March 21, after news that President Obama was considering widening sanctions to include broad sectors of the Russian economy, including the strategically and economically vital energy sector. Although it is unlikely to reach that level, the mere consideration of such a dramatic move has spooked some investors, who are beginning to pull their money out of the Russian economy. Visa and Mastercard reported that they will stop providing payment services for Bank Rossiya, a Russian bank, raising fears that more banks could be caught in Washington’s sanctions net.

As of March 21, it was unclear how Moscow would respond. Days earlier, top Russian officials had scoffed at the initial round of U.S. and EU sanctions. But by the end of the week, the Kremlin appeared to be trying to downplay the conflict, using a more measured and conciliatory tone. Vladimir Putin didn’t seem to want the standoff to worsen. “I think we need to refrain from taking any retaliatory countermeasures for now,” he said, according to the Wall Street Journal. And Fyodor Lukyanov, a top Russian foreign policy official was quoted as saying, “[e]verything has happened so unexpectedly and so quickly. There’s reason to end here.”

More intriguing is the prospect that the more or less severing of relations between Russia and Europe will accelerate a Russian pivot towards China. After all, one of the largest consumers of energy in the world sits adjacent to one of the largest producers of energy in the world – their marriage makes sense. Lukyanov hinted at such a shift in strategic thinking, “[t]he relationship with the West isn’t a top priority anymore.”

Russia had probably hoped for a much more supportive response from China on the issue of Crimea, as both countries’ interests often align in pushing back against U.S. meddling. However, that priority cuts both ways, prompting China to remain neutral – it sees Russia’s annexation as flying in the face of China’s policy of non-interference.

Nevertheless, the Russian-Chinese relationship could grow as a result of the brewing conflict between Russia and the West. For years, Russia and China have been unable to seal a natural gas deal that would benefit both. But the two sides are reportedly close to finally agreeing to terms, and with Putin scheduled to visit China in May, there is an added incentive there to finalizing a deal before then. It wouldn’t be surprising that with Russia much more eager to reach a deal, China may get its way in terms of pricing – China is hoping for a lower price for natural gas than what Europe receives, which is around $10.54 per million Btu in 2013. That had been a sticking point for years. Now, with Russia a little uneasy, they may bend on the pricing issue. China would stand to gain even more leverage if the U.S. moves towards sanctioning Russia’s energy sector.

Gazprom has plans to export as much as 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China beginning in 2018. This would require the construction of a $23 billion pipeline in the east. In fact, there are four planned connection points that would tie the two countries intimately together.

Several market analysts had already predicted before the Crimean crisis that a deal would be finalized this year. The latest freeze in Russian-European relations is accelerating Russia’s pivot towards China, and an imminent natural gas deal could be a centerpiece of that strategic shift.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Looks-East-as-Relations-with-Europe-Deteriorate.html

By Nicholas Cunningham of Oilprice.com

By CentralBankNews.info
    Hungary’s central bank cut its base rate by 10 basis points to 2.60 percent, its 20th rate decrease in a row, but signaled that it was likely to pause with further rate cuts, saying the base rate had “approached a level which ensures the medium-term achievement of price stability and a corresponding degree of support for the economy.”
    The National Bank of Hungary, which has now cut rates by 440 basis since embarking on an easing cycle in August 2012, added that it did not see scope for continuing the easing cycle, even in global financial markets were to significantly deteriorate.
     From August 2012 until July last year the central bank cut rates in 25-basis point increments but starting in August 2013 it reduced the pace of rate cuts to 20 basis points, aware that global investors were reassessing their view of investments in emerging markets and it had to keep rates high enough to attract funds. In January and February it then reduced the size of its rate cuts to 15 basis points.
    The central bank said there remains a degree of unused capacity in the economy and inflation is likely to move in line with the target in the medium term.
   “The negative output gap is expected to close gradually at the monetary policy horizon, and therefore the disinflationary impact of the real economy is likely to decrease looking forward,” the bank said.
     Hungary’s inflation rate rose to 0.1 percent in February from zero in January and the central bank expects inflation to remain below its 3.0 percent target this year before moving into line with the target from 2015.
    Hungary’s economy went into recession in 2012 but rebounded last year and the central bank expects growth to continue, helped by exports that are expected to play an important source of growth in coming years and investments are also likely to pick up further, the bank said.
    Hungary’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 from the third quarter for annual growth of 2.7 percent, up from 1.8 percent in the previous quarter.

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The area between 0.8390 – 0.8400 has been an important price pivot zone in the past, acting several times as support throughout 2013 and as resistance in late 2013 and 2014.

After testing 0.8400 last week EUR/GBP dropped 70 pips, only to quickly recover those losses. Seeing how the pair failed to dip below the most recent swing lows from the previous two weeks, the bullish momentum looked strong and many traders were preparing for a run over 0.8400.

The second test of the resistance has been met with a stronger bearish pressure, pointed out by a bearish engulfing pattern on the 4H timeframe while the daily stochastic was in the overbought area.

0.8330 is the first support and the current target for sellers. It should be noted that EUR/GBP is in a range between 0.8330 and 0.8400, at least technically, having made two swing highs and two swing lows at nearly identical levels. The second support further down, at 0.8285, marked by the 200 simple moving average on the 4H timeframe, is a valid target only after the range is invalidated towards the downside.

If this short term range will first break above 0.8400 and the 200-day MA, the next resistance lies at 0.8463, a very strong confluence formed by the 50% fibonacci retracement between the 0.8768 – 0.8157 and a strong pivot zone confirmed five times in the last year.

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Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Technical Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

The EURUSD Soars to 1.3876

Yesterday, the EURUSD rose to 1.3826 on stats in France, where the pair was sold, as a result, it dropped to the support around 1.3760. The rest of the day the pair was slightly above this level, the market activity was sluggish. Unexpectedly, the euro started moving upward gradually and, having broken a day’s high, increased to 1.3876. After testing the level the pair was decreasing gradually, until it reached the 1.3825 level, where the euro found support. It is still unclear what caused the growth. The movement has strengthened stop orders triggering, so it is early to talk about uptrend resumption. The growth can continue if market participants want to buy at current levels, but without it the EURUSD is taking risk to return to 1.3760.

The GBPUSD Remains Under Pressure

The GBPUSD was trading in a tight range all the day, limited by the resistance level of 1.6511 and the support level of 1.6465. Heading after the EURUSD, the pound increased to 1.6536, after that it returned to 1.6490. This jump of the rate does not change the situation, so downside risks are kept. Nevertheless, a rise above 1.6536 can lead to weakening of the bearish momentum, providing the bulls an opportunity to test 66th figure.

The USDCHF Still Can Return to 0.8865

Testing the resistance level of 0.8865 was unsuccessful again, because here the USDCHF came under pressure again, which led to a fall to 0.8786. Amid this demand for the dollar remained, and the currency rate retreated to 0.8812. As in the case with the euro, yesterday’s decline of the dollar does not mean downtrend resumption on it, so the risks of returning to the resistance level of 0.8865 are kept. A drop below 0.8786 may be a confirmation of downtrend resumption.

The USDJPY Fails to Overcome 102.65

Yesterday, the EURUSD tried to attack the resistance level of 102.65 again. Bears` offers located here, returned the pair to a local support around the 102.12 mark. Thus, the dollar failed to rise above highs reached on March 19, which increased the risks of a renewed decline. Falling below the 102nd figures will confirm this and lead to testing the support level of 101.60.

provided by IAFT

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Copper prices were lifted for a second day on Tuesday. The China’s disappointing manufacturing data and bets on potential government stimulus help boost the commodity.

Copper futures for May 14 delivery traded 0.93% higher at the time of writing, bouncing back from the previous losses seen in the previous session after China reported its disappointing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

Copper – China

China Purchasing Mangers’ Index for March from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics came in 48.1 lower, compared to analysts’ estimates of 48.7 and a final reading of 48.5 seen in the previous month.  The figures shows an economic slowdown in China; the world’s second largest oil consumer. A figure below 50 indicates a contraction and above indicates expansion. The slowdown in the nation’s economy is mainly due to the weak domestic demand, as analysts predict Beijing to launch policy measures to ensure steady economy growth. The manufacturing output index dropped to an 18-month low of 47.3 in March, compared to 48.8 seen in the previous month.

“The slowdown in China’s manufacturing sector points to continued weakness in the prices of industrial metal,” Capital Economics wrote in a research note on Tuesday.

Adding, “Admittedly, copper has already fallen to within a whisker of our end-2014 forecast of $6,350 per ton and with strong growth in supply, a squeeze on the use of metals as collateral, and no immediate catalysts for a rebound in final demand, copper prices may well fall further.”

China’s Prime Minister, Li Keqiang tipped-off possible efforts to stabilize the economy growth to maintain employments at appropriate levels, which is currently over the official growth target of 7.5%.

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The post Copper Climbs on China Government Data appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Oil prices were seen trading lower on Tuesday as the North American WTI crude dropped for the first time in three days on forecasts that crude stockpiles climbed for the tenth week in the US, the biggest oil user in the world.

WTI for May delivery lost 34 cents to $99.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at the time of writing. While Brent crude for May settlement edged 19 cents lower to $106.62 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $7.16 to WTI.

Crude stockpiles in the US most likely added 2.5 million barrels in the last week, according to analysts forecast before the Energy Information Administration report due on Wednesday.

Oil – US Crude Supplies

US fuel supplies climbed to 375.9 million barrels in the week ending March 14, the highest since November, according to reports from the EIA. While refinery units are closed for maintenance in winter and will reopen in the spring to meet the demand for gasoline.

Distillate inventories, including heating oil and diesel, is expected to show a drop by 1.1 million, according to analysts, while gasoline stockpiles is forecasted to have slid by 1.7 million barrels last week.

A separate stockpile report is expected to be released by the American Petroleum Institute later in the day.

Meanwhile, the closure of the Houston Ship Channel is expected to weigh on crude prices. There are 140 vessels waiting to go through the Houston Ship Channel, according to the Coast Guard.

Oil – Russia

On Monday, the Western nations, including the US and the European Union met in Hague and imposed tougher sanctions against Russia, as Russia is expected to be excluded from the G8 if the ongoing tensions do not ease.

Russia is increasing its military along the border with Ukraine, which may signal further territorial changes within the region.

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The post Oil Prices Drops Before Crude Stockpiles Report appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

2014.03.25 12:30 6:30AM ET | USDCHF Currency Pair

Here are the Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the USDCHF currency pair today. Price action is currently trading at the 0.88289 price level and over the daily pivot point, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The USDCHF high for the day has been 0.88333 while the low of day has fallen to 0.88001. The pair earlier today opened the Asian trading session below the daily pivot and has trended higher and through the daily pivot this morning.

Daily Pivot Point: 0.88195
— S1 – 0.87737
— S2 – 0.87401
— S3 – 0.86943
— R1 – 0.88531
— R2 – 0.88989
— R3 – 0.89325

Weekly Pivot Points: USDCHF

Prices are currently trading over the weekly pivot point (0.8802) at time of writing. The USDCHF has been on an overall sideways trend so far this week after opening the trading week above the weekly pivot and finding support below the weekly pivot area.

Weekly Pivot Point: 0.88027
— S1 – 0.87371
— S2 – 0.86474
— S3 – 0.85818
— R1 – 0.88924
— R2 – 0.89580
— R3 – 0.90477

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.