From Lab Bench to Bedside: David Lowe Brings Common Sense to Neuroscience Investing

Source: George S. Mack of The Life Sciences Report (3/26/14)

http://www.thelifesciencesreport.com/pub/na/from-lab-bench-to-bedside-david-lowe-brings-common-sense-to-neuroscience-investing

Billions of dollars have been spent chasing molecular targets in neurological diseases that now appear to be worthless. Effective therapies remain rare. But the market is enormous—and low risk—if a company can get a truly workable solution to patients. Consultant and neuroscientist David Lowe, president and CEO of NeuroAssets, helps biotech firms identify targets and find innovative ways to rapidly move drugs into the clinic. In this interview with The Life Sciences Report, Lowe describes one company with exciting preclinical and clinical-stage assets, and advances two more names worthy of investor attention.

The Life Sciences Report: David, you provide numerous services to your clientele. Could you please give an overview of NeuroAssets?

David Lowe: Sure. We’re a transatlantic advisory company. We offer advice and sometimes hands-on operational management of research and development (R&D) programs in the neuroscience space. We are entirely focused on neuroscience, and work with a mix of private and public biotechs in Europe and the U.S. We’ve had some interactions with Japanese companies as well.

I also have some experience with a publicly traded company, where I was the chief scientific officer and a board member. I am currently an independent director at Amarantus BioScience Holdings Inc. (AMBS:OTCQB), a publicly traded company that my firm is working with now.

TLSR: Generally speaking, what kind of advice might you give a client company?

DL: We offer high-level strategic advice, such as which areas to focus on with the technology or the compound/compounds that a company has. Our advice also can involve curing a management issue. We might be asked to step in as an interim chief scientific officer, or even as chief executive officer.

TLSR: You consult with clients ranging from small, private startups to micro caps to mid-cap companies. That’s a wide range, isn’t it?

DL: Yes. But let me add that we also have frequent and intensive interactions with large pharmaceutical companies working in the neuroscience area. That actually complements what we do on the private, micro-, small- and mid-cap fronts. We don’t work directly for large pharmas like Novartis AG (NVS:NYSE), Roche Holding AG (RHHBY:OTCQX), Sanofi SA (SNY:NYSE) or Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY:NYSE), but we definitely know what’s going on, and we know the right people to contact in those organizations about any particular R&D or business development opportunity.

We also know what’s going on in the in-licensing arena, which has been useful in the case of Amarantus BioScience. We helped to find the eltoprazine molecule that the company licensed; the molecule is now in Phase 2b for Parkinson’s disease levodopa-induced dyskinesia (PD-LID), as well as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Amarantus CEO Gerald Commissiong led the charge on the negotiation front and did a brilliant job.

TLSR: In some ways you extend your influence very much like a venture capitalist or investment banker. You’re performing some of those functions, it appears.

DL: We don’t put together funds to invest in companies, but we can help companies find finance sources, and we can work with CEOs doing road shows, going around Wall Street and to San Francisco and other parts of the U.S. We’ve also built some networks on the Swiss financial scene since setting up here in the Geneva area. We’re trying to get more knowledge and experience working with European networks because we think that in countries like Switzerland, and to some extent the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, there are a lot of untapped investors. European investors are not presented with opportunities as intensely as investors in the U.S.

TLSR: Suppose a small company has a good idea or maybe a small portfolio of molecules that could potentially target an unmet need. How might you help that entrepreneur or company develop that technology from the discovery or preclinical stage? What’s the first thing you might do?

DL: The first thing I’d do is analyze the intellectual property (IP), because we don’t want to get too far out of the station unless we have a bulletproof IP situation. Let’s say you have an idea in an academic lab. Depending on how much money is available, you might persuade the university technology transfer people to file for meaningful provisional IP. If you’re further down the line, you have to find an investor who believes in the technology and its usefulness, and is confident about the IP situation.

Once I have a strong sense that the IP analysis is going to be positive, I start putting project plans together, to figure out what’s missing and how we are going to get to the next step, which is basically getting into the clinic as soon as possible. That means determining which disease indication you’re going for and what the route of administration is going to be. The investigational new drug (IND) pathway is pretty standard, such that if we’re going for an eye or ear indication, there are standard regulatory pathways to follow.

I’m looking constantly at the “doability,” which has to be analyzed. Where you see hurdles or challenges, you have to find innovative and intelligent solutions to them.

TLSR: David, a researcher obviously needs to get toxicity screens done in preclinical models. But beyond that, how much preclinical proof of concept does a researcher need before he or she can begin raising capital for a startup?

DL: That’s a good question. It varies with the project, and it certainly varies with the investors. I would say that a good investor is probably satisfied with, let’s say, two models. There are some cases where there aren’t any models, perhaps because the therapeutic agent is specific to a human protein and is not demonstrable in animal models. If that is the case, it’s going to be about belief in the project and the people involved, and getting the therapeutic through the IND process.

In an exotic case, the pre-IND meetings are absolutely essential to get regulatory guidance. One of the great things about the U.S. and Europe is that the regulatory authorities are willing to give pre-IND guidance to startups and small companies. I think that’s recognized now as part of the U.S. environment, and the authorities have responded accordingly. It’s also true in Europe.

TLSR: Do you find it difficult to get a company to drop an idea? Maybe the approach is not right. Maybe the idea is workable, but perhaps the market is not there. Maybe there are too many competitors. Do you find that entrepreneurs are often married to an idea and can’t give it up?

DL: Absolutely. It’s a huge point. There is a huge difference between something being scientifically meaningful and that something becoming a marketed product. That’s what entrepreneurs often fail to see, particularly the academic-minded ones. A lot of my job is to bring in the practical side. I understand and get a big thrill from the science part, but it has to be translated. Without the translation from bench to bedside, the initial discovery is more or less meaningless. It will go into the journals, but it won’t become anything that helps real people.

TLSR: It seems to me that neurodegenerative disease, especially Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s, could be huge opportunities for investors. If you throw in the cognitive issues that accompany normal aging, you have a market approaching that of oncology and cardiovascular disease. Do you see neurodegenerative disease as an untapped market?

DL: The answer is that it is definitely huge, huge, huge. The market risk is not the problem in neuroscience R&D. Numbers of patients are increasing because most neurodegenerative conditions are age-related, and we are, thankfully, living longer. De facto, the incidence and prevalence of neurodegenerative conditions will continue.

In addition, new indications are being realized within the neurodegenerative space. For instance, one of the things that Gerald Commissiong and I have been working on is traumatic brain injury and, as a subset of traumatic brain injury, concussion. There is a lot of interest in sports injury-related concussion, and we’re looking into that in a very big way. If you look at the World Health Organization’s statistics, you will see that there is a huge and growing global problem with head injuries and that concussions may increase the likelihood of neurodegenerative diseases later in life.

TLSR: Given that the neurodegenerative disease market is so large, what have been the stumbling blocks in developing solutions?

DL: The reason we haven’t progressed in the field is the complexity and diversity of these conditions. We are still not quite clear on the underlying etiology of these diseases, and if we’re not clear on the cause, we can’t target meaningful therapeutics or even diagnostics, which should be easier to tackle. That is the main stumbling block. I would mention, however, that there has been a massive scientific effort globally, led by the U.S. and Europe. Japan is close behind, and its progress is pretty impressive.

TLSR: What about preclinical disease models? In oncology you can measure tumor regression in animal models, but cognitive disorders are more difficult in the preclinical setting. It’s hard to test a mouse to see if it remembers. Aren’t preclinical models inadequate in these cognitive diseases?

DL: To some extent, yes. My mantra in the realm of investigating cognition and cognitive therapeutics is to do animal work that addresses a few domains of cognition—working memory, attention, executive function (planning and organizing a task based on prior experiences), spatial memory and so on. Don’t overdo it. Then take the therapeutic molecule into humans as quickly as possible and run proof-of-concept trials, even in Phase 1b. You can do ascending multiple-dose studies in Phase 1 human trials, with actual patients. Young, healthy male and female volunteers are not the right test subjects, particularly when dealing with age-related diseases. Regulatory authorities are recognizing the value of this now.

TLSR: Do you see any surrogate endpoints that might translate from preclinical models to clinical usefulness? For example, Amarantus’ lymphocyte proliferation test, LymPro, a diagnostic blood test, is currently in a Phase 2 validation study for Alzheimer’s disease. Could that be a surrogate endpoint potentially?

DL: Absolutely. The cell cycle hypothesis of Alzheimer’s disease is an exciting, breaking story. Some key investigators—one being David Holtzman at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis—are digging into this. It’s slow to be accepted because it breaks the dogma that neurons are essentially postmitotic (no longer capable of producing two new nuclei in cell division). But we think something is going on in this respect. The phenomenon is reflected in the peripheral blood lymphocyte population, which may be a surrogate for neuronal activity. The LymPro test is based on this.

This line of research also suggests that other biomarkers or surrogate markers for drug activity in the peripheral blood could potentially be useful endpoint measurements in clinical trials. A lot of effort is being put into looking at this. We know that biomarkers can be used in cerebrospinal fluid, which makes perfect sense because of the fluid’s proximity to brain and spinal cord neurons expressing certain factors.

The other aspect is imaging. There has been a lot of progress in amyloid imaging in Alzheimer’s, and major progress with tau imaging in the Parkinson’s field. I was on the phone in early March with theMichael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Research (MJFF), which has an alpha-synuclein imaging drive going on. Many key players, as we’re learning in neurodegenerative pathways, have the possibility of being imaged directly in the brain.

What you have is a compound that’s marked, perhaps with fluorine or carbon radioisotopes, and you can see an image of the compound in the brain using various machines. Together with plasma biomarkers, such as those LymPro is measuring, we could get a composite picture and pattern of the individual patient’s status. That’s a huge breakthrough in terms of getting control of the disease earlier. The earlier you treat, the more likely a better prognosis.

TLSR: It appears that these beta-amyloid, tau and alpha-synuclein imaging studies are going to be more diagnostic, and less capable of being biomarkers in disease regression. We’re not going to see protein concentrations or plaques in the brain shrink in response to drug therapy any time soon, are we?

DL: Well, maybe. As progress continues with the antibodies, vaccines and other therapies now being studied in the preclinical phase, things could change. In fact, a study of the first tau vaccine recently started in Finland. We’re waiting to see what happens there. Tau imaging is going to be on the scene soon. If you have a tau imaging system, and a tau vaccine, tau antibody or other compound against tau, you’re definitely going for that mechanism.

TLSR: It strikes me that it’s very difficult to get investors interested in neurological disease. They think of it as hopeless, and therefore a bad bet. Their capital might be useful elsewhere, such as in a cancer or cardiovascular trial, where they might get definitive results in a year or so. How do you feel about that? Is it frustrating?

DL: The phenomenon that you’ve described is definitely real, and I understand it. I mean, we all have different things we can do with our investment portfolios. We think in terms of big pharma being able to handle the big expenses, the risk and that 12-year product-development life cycle. That is, indeed, a very important part of the whole biotech/pharma community. From the investor point of view, that’s the reason for the shift to orphan diseases. While orphan therapies target smaller markets, the pricing is pretty good and, perhaps most important, three or four years of development time can be shaved off. Regulators in all jurisdictions are open to this.

I’ve seen some IND filings for orphan diseases in the neuro space in the last two years, and while the regulatory authorities have remained scientifically focused, they move things forward and are not demanding packages that they might otherwise want to see in broader indications. Compassionate use—or expanded access, as it is now called—is another point. All of that can decrease the time to market.

Just to continue with that thought, this is one reason Amarantus has been focusing on some orphan indications, such as retinitis pigmentosa (RP). Some pharmas, like Shire Plc (SHPGY:NASDAQ; SHP:LSE), have led the pack in getting into orphans, and actually have orphan diseases as part of their internal portfolios. Because there are so many orphan diseases, the door is open for more partnering possibilities with small biotechs, and big pharmas hunger to in-license candidates for orphan diseases because of their shorter development cycles and favorable pricing. The large drug companies are well aware that if you get a drug onto market quickly for an orphan indication, you can then develop that drug in further applications for bigger disease markets, such as Parkinson’s or Alzheimer’s. In the case of Amarantus, it is in preclinical development with mesencephalic astrocyte-derived neurotrophic factor (MANF) in not only RP, an orphan indication, but also in Parkinson’s, with some grant funding from the MJFF.

Circling back to your question, hopefully there are ways we can get investors more interested in the neuroscience space. I think the orphan disease route is a great strategy, one that’s becoming more common. If investors begin to understand some of the drug development strategies, it could change perceptions about neurodegenerative disease.

TLSR: Please address the MANF program.

DL: We believe this molecule, MANF, is one of the jewels in the field. We’re working hard to develop it in a commercially meaningful manner. We made an announcement on March 6 about exclusively in-licensing some IP from the University of Massachusetts (UMass) Amherst, for the use of both MANF and its sister molecule, conserved dopamine neurotrophic factor, to treat certain auditory indications. We discussed this idea with Dr. Lawrence Schwartz at UMass, and he was able to put some test systems together. We have one or two other indications for MANF, as well as the Amarantus’ lead compound, eltoprazine, which is in the clinic. We’re trying to come to a conclusion about where our money is best spent, looking at the parameters of cost, time and chance of success. There are several components to the decision matrix, but those are the essential three.

TLSR: Even though you are in Phase 2b with eltoprazine in both PD-LID and ADHD, it seems to me that you could get quicker results with MANF in RP. First, there’s no learning curve for the ophthalmologist, and second and most important, visual acuity would be a very measurable endpoint.

DL: That’s right: An RP study wouldn’t be about some airy question, such as how do you feel today? It would be a definite ophthalmological readout. You couldn’t argue with it.

TLSR: My understanding is that Amarantus is going to complete its Phase 2 validation study supporting a Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments launch of LymPro. It will submit that package of data sometime in H2/14. Is the company still on track for a launch of LymPro by the end of this year?

DL: Absolutely. I don’t see any reason why not.

TLSR: Could LymPro revenues then fund development of the therapeutics in the pipeline?

DL: It could, yes. That’s overall the plan, and is being presented to the board of directors. My role with Amarantus is to acid test the proposals being made, and I’m quite confident the launch timeline is realistic. Of course, when you’re doing science, things happen to slow you down. But we’ve been very careful in selecting providers that we believe will deliver on time.

TLSR: Amarantus is volatile because it is a micro cap, but it’s interesting to note that over the past 12 weeks, this stock is up nearly 80%. Do you know why the stock has performed so well recently?

DL: There are three elements. One is LymPro and its potential progress to the next level, which will make it more attractive as a partnering opportunity for big pharma. There are various discussions going on now, but one of the breakthroughs was getting into the Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE) incubator in San Francisco, where we are now headquartered.

The second issue is the progress we’ve made with MANF. We basically came up with this orphan strategy in RP and implemented that in some key collaborative efforts with top-flight universities. The eye work is being done at the University of Miami’s Bascom Palmer Eye Institute, which is probably the world’s No. 1 institute in ophthalmology.

The third reason for this kind of interest in the stock is the progress and stability of the eltoprazine project. Those are the three main drivers.

TLSR: Were there some other companies with interesting technologies in the neuro space that you wanted to mention?

DL: Yes. Acorda Therapeutics Inc. (ACOR:NASDAQ) is an example of the point I made about corporate culture. Ron Cohen, the CEO at Acorda, has done a fantastic job of taking compounds and getting them developed, repurposed and reinvented using a new clinical scale through negotiations with U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). It’s all been based on solid science and corporate execution. The company has done a brilliant job of changing the landscape in multiple sclerosis and spinal trauma.

Another favorite is Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD:NASDAQ), which is an interesting, almost-went-down-the-tubes name. Again, due to CEO Uli Hacksell’s tenacity, not throwing in the towel, the clinical aspects of Acadia’s compound pimavanserin got sorted out, and then the company executed trials in a very crisp manner and delivered positive data. The rest is history. You saw the results in the stock price as well.

TLSR: Acadia has to be the turnaround story of 2013, wouldn’t you agree?

DL: I think so, yes. As a neuroscientist with investment experience, in the end I’m looking for that stock price, which happens to be a boiled-down reflection of tens if not hundreds of components of corporate culture. All of these executed events have meshed in a machinelike manner, but it can’t be a machine because these are human beings. The corporate culture at Acadia has kept the machine running.

TLSR: Acadia has its pimavanserin product in a Phase 3 study for Parkinson’s disease psychosis. It’s a multicenter study with 500 patients, and is open-label and single-arm. Can an open-label, single-arm trial actually be pivotal?

DL: Yes, I think it can.

TLSR: David, Acadia has an ongoing Phase 2 trial using pimavanserin in Alzheimer’s psychosis, and years ago it completed a trial with that same drug as a cotherapy in schizophrenia. This product could be useful in psychosis arising from both Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s.

DL: These illnesses often involve, and result in, what we have classically called psychiatric conditions—psychosis, depression and so on. We’re now recognizing them as a very important part of the disease phenotype in Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s. In Parkinson’s disease, the first things people start reporting are sleep and slight memory problems, not necessarily motor impairment. The famous Alzheimer’s trialist Jeffrey Cummings gave a really good overview of this topic at a recent Alzheimer’s clinical trial meeting in San Diego, where he went through the psychiatric sequelae of Alzheimer’s disease. It has opened up another subset of conditions that can be tackled by compounds, as we are now seeing with Acadia. I think the pharmas have bought into this idea as well.

TLSR: David, based on all that you’ve seen in your 35 years in and around industry, can you identify the single best characteristic of a company that will become a successful life sciences business?

DL: That’s very easy to answer. It’s the scientific content. If you have excellent scientific content and you don’t mess it up with some kind of goofy management behavior, then I think you can be successful. You want disciplined science, not maverick science. A lot of biotechs end up doing maverick science that just won’t translate. The other important piece is to bring on board some development experience and expertise. I’m a great believer in corporate culture being a real important driver; it’s probably the most important driver.

TLSR: David, thank you.

DL: Thank you very much for the discussion.

Dr. David A. Lowe is president and CEO of NeuroAssets Sarl, a Swiss-based neuroscience-focused consulting firm providing advisory services to pharmaceutical, venture capital and biotechnology companies throughout the world. Lowe previously served as the chief scientific officer of PsychoGenics Inc., and before that as director and chief scientific officer of Memory Pharmaceuticals Corp., a biotechnology company pursuing innovative treatments for Alzheimer’s disease and schizophrenia. Prior to Memory Pharmaceuticals, Lowe served as the executive vice president and chief scientific officer at Fidelity Biosciences Group, Fidelity Investments, in Boston, an investment firm focused on the healthcare industry. He also served as president, CEO and director of EnVivo Pharmaceuticals, a Fidelity-funded pharmaceutical company pursuing new treatments for Alzheimer’s disease. Lowe has also served as vice president and therapeutic area head, central nervous system (CNS), at Roche Pharmaceuticals, vice president and global therapeutic area head (CNS), at Bayer AG, and head of CNS biology, as well as deputy head of CNS research at Sandoz (now Novartis). He received his PhD in neurobiology from the University of Leeds, UK.

Want to read more Life Sciences Report interviews like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you’ll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.

DISCLOSURE:

1) George S. Mack conducted this interview for The Life Sciences Report and provides services to The Life Sciences Report as an independent contractor. He or his family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The Life Sciences Report:Amarantus BioScience Holdings Inc. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services or as sponsorship payment.

3) David Lowe: I or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I personally am or my family is paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: Amarantus BioScience Holdings Inc. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview.

4) Interviews are edited for clarity. Streetwise Reports does not make editorial comments or change experts’ statements without their consent.

5) The interview does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer.

6) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise during the up-to-four-week interval from the time of the interview until after it publishes.

Streetwise – The Life Sciences Report is Copyright © 2014 by Streetwise Reports LLC. All rights are reserved. Streetwise Reports LLC hereby grants an unrestricted license to use or disseminate this copyrighted material (i) only in whole (and always including this disclaimer), but (ii) never in part..

Streetwise Reports LLC does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported.

Streetwise Reports LLC receives a fee from companies that are listed on the home page in the In This Issue section. Their sponsor pages may be considered advertising for the purposes of 18 U.S.C. 1734.

Participating companies provide the logos used in The Life Sciences Report. These logos are trademarks and are the property of the individual companies.

101 Second St., Suite 110

Petaluma, CA 94952

Tel.: (707) 981-8204

Fax: (707) 981-8998

Email: [email protected]

 

 

 

Wave Analysis 28.03.2014 (DJIA Index, Crude Oil)

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for March 28th, 2014

DJIA Index

Index is still being corrected. It looks like wave [2] is taking the form of zigzag pattern. In the near term, instrument is expected to continue falling down inside wave (C) and break local minimum.

More detailed wave structure is shown on H1 chart. Probably, price formed bearish impulse inside wave 1 and right now instrument is being corrected inside the second one, which is taking the form of flat pattern. Most likely, price may start falling down inside the third wave during the day.

Crude Oil

Wave 2 is being formed much faster that I expected. Earlier Take Profit on my buy order worked and right now I’m staying out of the market. I’ll consider opening new sell order as soon as Oil forms initial descending impulse.

As we can see at the H1 chart, Oil formed horizontal triangle pattern inside wave [B]. Right now, price is forming bullish impulse inside wave [C] with the fifth wave being completed inside it. Possibly, instrument may reverse downwards during Friday.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

 

 

 

 

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 28.03.2014 (EUR/USD, USD/CHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for March 28th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Yesterday Eurodollar reached its main target and my Take Profit worked. However, right now there are no signs of reverse, that’s why I opened short-term sell order during local correction. Target is near several fibo levels at 1.3665.

As we can see at H1 chart, after slight consolidation, pair broke its local minimum. According to analysis of temporary fibo-zones, lower target levels may be reached during the day. If later pair rebounds from them, market will start new and deeper correction.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

On Thursday franc reached my Take Profit, but I opened another buy order during correction. Possibly, pair may reach new maximum during Friday. Closest target is near several fibo levels at 0.8930.

As we can see at H1 chart, local correction is taking place. According to analysis of temporary fibo-zones, upper target levels may be reached until the end of this trading week. If pair breaks them, market may start new ascending trend.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

 

 

 

USDCAD: Bearish, Targets Further Downside.

USDCAD: The pair weakened further on Thursday leaving further pressure on the cards. Support lies at the 1.1000 level. We expect this big psycho level to hold and turn it higher but if breaks, further declining could occur towards the 1.0950 level and then the 1.0900 level. Bulls may come here and turn the pair back up. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides the 1.1100 level where a break will aim at the 1.1150 level and then the 1.1200 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.1277 level. All in all, USDCAD faces further bearish risk.

Article by www.fxtechstrategy.com

 

 

 

 

 

San Francisco Residents Witness Real-Life Resurrection

By WallStreetDaily.com San Francisco Residents Witness Real-Life Resurrection

Need definitive proof that the financial industry is on the mend?

Are you worried that increased volatility spells doom for this aging bull market?

Or are you spooked by the fact that the “Fab Five” momentum stocks are rolling over?

We address all these concerns – along with a few primo choices to (safely) juice your yields in this zero-interest world – in this week’s Friday Charts edition.

So let’s get to it…

The Truth About Volatility

There’s no question that momentum reigned in 2013.

Pullbacks were sparse. And when they did materialize, investors were quick to step in and buy.

It was also common for investors to chase the rallies with even more buying.

In short, the market conditions couldn’t have been more ideal.

Now that we’re three months into 2014, though, the same can’t exactly be said.

Sure, investors are still confident enough to buy the dips. But their conviction isn’t as strong. And that’s leading to much more volatility.

As I mentioned to WSD Insiders on Monday, we’ve already witnessed 22 triple-digit-point moves in the Dow this year, compared to only nine at the same point last year, according to Ryan Detrick, Senior Technical Strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research.

So the easy ride higher is over. But does that mean the bull market itself is on its deathbed? Not necessarily.

Volatility – represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – and stocks traditionally move in opposite directions. But not always.

“I believe we may be entering a period similar to the mid to late 1990s, when the stock market and volatility both rose for an extended period,” says Charles Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders.


Time will tell if Sonders is right. Combine the chart with her list of 17 similarities between now and the 1990s, and she definitely gives us some food for thought.

Introducing the New “Fab Five”

Given that we’re in the thick of the NCAA Basketball tournament (Go Gators!), I couldn’t resist drawing this parallel…

Just like the Fab Five at the University of Michigan were dismal when it really counted, it looks like the Fab Five of the stock market – Netflix (NFLX), Facebook (FB), Google (GOOG), Priceline (PCLN) and Tesla (TSLA) – might be blowing it, too.

Over the last week, shares of 2013′s highest-fliers have been taking it on the chin, dropping by double digits in some cases, while the S&P 500 has pretty much traded flat.


What gives? As Yahoo Finance’s Jeff Macke explains, “I can tick through individual reasons for all of the above stock drops, but that would ignore the more obvious fact… Investors are running away from high-flying tech momentum names. Risk aversion is in vogue.”

I’ll say!

Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Much more downside lies ahead for these overhyped and overvalued firms, particularly Netflix, Facebook and Tesla.

Rise of the Financials

Now, if you need proof that the financial industry is on the mend, look no further than Wells Fargo (WFC).

The stock has been on a tear ever since the market bottomed in 2009, rising nearly 250%.


If shares climb a tad more and hit $51, the San Francisco-based company will become the largest U.S. bank ever, based on market capitalization.

Clearly, the financial sector has recovered. And then some.

Starved for Yield?

Higher interest rates are coming! Higher interest rates are coming!

But not until 2015, based on newly minted Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen’s, latest comments.

That means we’ve got at least another year of scouring the earth to find respectable yields.

Of course, this isn’t a new challenge. We’ve been faced with record-low yields on traditional income investments, like U.S. Treasury bonds, for years. But it’s a challenge, nonetheless.

My suggestion? Don’t ratchet up your risk tolerance and go “all in” on the highest-yielding investments you can find.

Instead, be responsible and consider adding some alternative income investments to your portfolio. Alternatives like MLPs, preferred stocks, emerging market debt, bank loans, even U.S. REITs.

As the chart below reveals, they offer compelling yields with the potential to build wealth and outpace inflation.


The best place to find such ideas? I thought you’d never ask! Check out articles from my colleagues, Alan Gula and Richard Robinson, over at our sister publication, Dividends & Income Daily.

That’s it for this week. Before you go, though, let us know what you think of this weekly column – or any of our recent work at Wall Street Daily – by going here.

Ahead of the tape,

Louis Basenese

The post San Francisco Residents Witness Real-Life Resurrection appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: San Francisco Residents Witness Real-Life Resurrection

Gold Declines as US Economy Shows Signs of Strength

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Gold has been on an up and down trend in recent weeks, as tensions in Ukraine are pushing people toward the precious metal, while other factors are leading investors to other markets. The latest news on U.S. interest rates led gold to fall the most in 13 weeks, as investors don’t want to purchase this metal with the potential for rates to rise, according to Bloomberg.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that the bank’s benchmark rate could increase six months after monetary stimulus ends, which should be later this year. Following this announcement, gold dropped 3.1 percent.

This is important information for investors who trade gold, as interest rates will have a major impact on their investments. People should keep a close eye on any future announcements about the benchmark rate to help get ahead of market movements.

“People don’t want gold in a rising interest-rate environment,” David Meger, the director of metal trading at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago, told the news source. “While concerns about Crimea remain, there has been no escalation in violence for people to jump back into the safe-haven asset.”

The ability to accurately predict how the Fed will move interest rates would be valuable information to gold traders. While there is no way to know for sure what will happen, there are numerous indicators that could signal movement.

For example, if the U.S. Commerce Department releases positive reports on manufacturing, consumer spending or CPI, the economy could be improving, which, in turn, could lead to future rate increases.

The post Gold Declines as US Economy Shows Signs of Strength appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

Stand By for World War D: Controversial Investment Ideas Approaching

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Well, that’s it.

The big day is almost here.

We’ve submitted our PowerPoint presentation.

All we need to do now is summon up the gumption to stand up in front of over 400 people and talk.

Oh, and we actually need to finish writing our speech…otherwise things could get awkward…

Next Monday is the World War D conference here in Melbourne.

Your editor is due to speak before lunch on the first day.

We’ll be honest, we don’t like public speaking. It’s not our forte. Given the choice we’d rather sit behind our desk and slowly form thoughts in our mind to relay to you each morning.

But we get why it’s necessary to do these things. So we’ll do it. And we’ll try not to offend too many people.

Incidentally, if you couldn’t get time off to get to Melbourne, there’s some good news. We’ve hired some pro video guys to record the event. So if you can’t make it but you’d like to tune in to what goes on, check out the full details here. Buy before 1st April and you’ll get a 25% discount off the cover price too.

All the highlights from the best two days of the year

All this means there will be a format change to Money Morning next week.

In the interests of giving you the low down on each and every speaker who presents next week, we’re handing the reigns of Money Morning over to roving reporters Shae Smith and Callum Denness.

They’ll report live from the conference floor at the Grand Hyatt detailing the highlights (and hopefully not many lowlights) from each presentation.

Obviously, with so many world-class speakers on show for two days next week we couldn’t do their presentations justice if we tried to cram everything into Monday and Tuesday.

If you want to hear and see the biggest and best contrarian investment conference this year, then this is it. We expect cheers, gasps, and even a few boos.

So we’ll share the highlights with you throughout the week.

And of course, as soon as the conference wraps up the video production crew will begin cutting the footage in order to get the DVD of the event out as soon as possible. Remember that you can secure a 25% discount here right now .

Ranting, raving…and practical advice

So, what do we plan on banging on about?

Well, part of the performance will include stressing some of the topics we’ve covered in Money Morning during the past few months.

That is, the idea that irrelevant events have distracted markets and investors. We’ll explain that the distractions are bad enough, especially when they turn out to be far less serious than initially claimed.

But we’ll also explain that that isn’t the half of it.

What makes things worse is the fact that these distractions have scared investors from buying stocks when they were trading at dirt-cheap valuations. Even today, although we can’t claim stocks are super cheap, it’s fair to say that if company earnings can grow then current valuations are justified.

After that, then we’ll attack the usual suspects. We won’t reveal whom yet. You’ll find that out next week when Shae and Callum report. And if you pre-order the video of the event you’ll be able to watch your editor in full-bore attack mode.

Finally, we’ll finish off with the practical advice. After all, it’s OK to listen to someone rant and rave, but it’s much better if they rant and rave while giving you useful information on how to make or save money.

That’s what we plan to do.

Whether we do that successfully or not, you’ll have to wait to see.

If you can’t be there, be there online

In the meantime, what will it mean for our analysis of the markets each day?

Remember to check out our Google+ page throughout the day on Monday and Tuesday. Whenever we’re not on stage or interviewing some of the other speakers, we’ll post comments on the action to Google+.

If you haven’t joined Google+ we recommend it. It’s the only social networking service we personally use. So make sure to check it out.

We’ll also reveal the single best, most useful, and practical piece of investment advice in the Premium Notes section for Money Morning Premium subscribers.

Look out for a special invitation to become a Premium subscriber in your inbox today. (Note: not every Money Morning subscriber will receive this invitation. If you don’t receive an invitation this time, don’t feel left out, your turn will come. Just keep your eyes peeled in the coming weeks.)

So, that’s it. Normal Money Morning service will resume after next week.

We hope you’ll enjoy next week’s editions of Money Morning. It will be different, but just as good.

See you on Monday.

Cheers,
Kris+

PS : Remember to pre-order your World War D conference DVD for a 25% discount. Go here to submit your details…

From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

Special Report: ASX: 15,000

Join Money Morning on Google+


By MoneyMorning.com.au

Why Regulation from the Central Banks Never Works

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Like army generals, the senior financial regulators are always fighting the last war. Here’s how the game works:

The regulator recruits some low-ranking bod from London to tell them what they need to know about the dastardly banks’ various nefarious schemes…

The big London institutions recruit high-ranking bods from the regulator…

Then the new recruits tell the banks exactly what they can and can’t get away with. And exactly how they should push the envelope.

It’s a ‘revolving door’ of staff succession between the central banks and the finance industry. It means the regulator is indeed, always preparing for the last battle. The bigger chequebook offered by the banks ensures they are always one-step ahead of the shoeshine.

I was catching up with an old mate the other week and together we lamented the regulatory environment (yes, these are the sorts of conversations old bores like us have for fun!)…

Well, Bengt, surely the regulator needs to be beefed up. They need to spend bank-level salaries and get hold of the top talent to keep this industry in check!

No, no, no…‘ says I. ‘What we need is anarchy…

Regulation just doesn’t work

In the run-up to the 2007/08 crisis, regulation failed. It’s practically bound to. When it comes to banking, we’re dealing with big-money power brokers.

There’s also the nature of global capital markets. If you don’t like the regulation in one country, then shift operations to another. That’s a powerful tool oft used by the banks. London, in particular, has benefited from open financial markets. Successive governments have kept EU regulation at bay, shielding our banks from legislation emerging from Brussels.

The point is it’s extremely difficult to regulate effectively. Either the banks won’t have it, or they’ll continually adapt to new legislation.

But the worst of it all is the uncanny ability of the regulators to score own goals.

Take the highly topical annuities furore here in Britain. Regulation has long-since been established to ensure pensioners (or the pension managers) don’t whittle away individuals’ savings as they go into retirement. The regulators decreed that most retirees on a private pension will have to buy an annuity (an income for life policy).

An IFA mate was just telling me how just about everyone she’s put into annuities over the last year has opted for a non-inflation linked policy. Nobody wants to buy an inflation-linked policy paying a pitiful £3,000 a year, for every £100,000 invested. Instead, they buy fixed annuities paying something like £6,000 on £100,000 invested.

These retirees could be alive for 30 years or more. Given the central bank’s monetary experimentations, these annuities could become all but worthless.

This is the law of unintended consequences…and it has an uncanny way of popping its head round the regulators door. So I was encouraged to see MP George Osborne breaking out of this way of thinking in his budget last week.

The government’s radical move

In the light of Osborne’s budget announcement to vastly scale back annuities, the insurance industry is up in arms. But with the government’s swift action here, it seems the industry didn’t have time to dispatch its lieutenants.

The industry is crying ‘foul!’ They say retirement funds will be whittled away. ‘Regulation is there for a reason you know!’

But their argument hides the truth. And that is, regulation is used by the big boys to protect their own interests and their carefully groomed markets. It adds reams of complexity to finance, maintains the status quo and thwarts competition.

The current system of regulation strips individuals of responsibility and hives it off to an industry highly undeserving of our trust. It all too often allows the industry free rein to siphon off vast sums of our money. A) Because somebody has to pay for all the compliance staff in the first place. And B) because the regulation hinders competition in the savings market.

Explanation, not regulation

I like the idea of simplifying finance. Simplifying pensions. Making it easy for people to understand and to look after their own finances by demystifying the industry. And yes, that means less complicated regulation. Explanation, not regulation.

The NHS has a very useful online flow-chart that helps individuals identify and help treat symptoms. The government could set a similar flow-chart for the health of an individual’s finances.

Let the investing public work it out for themselves. In so doing, I suspect many will be much more realistic about their retirement savings policy too.

But, I hear you cry, ‘Who’s going to look after individuals and make sure they don’t just get ripped off?’

Now, while that’s a concern, I don’t think it’ll be as considerable as you may think. Given today’s vast information network, it wouldn’t be too difficult to weed out the industry’s nasties. If eBay can set up a decent enough system to identify shamsters, then why can’t a government website do the same?

And anyway, it’s not as if there aren’t enough investment scams going on even in today’s regulated markets. I dare say many individuals are conned into land banking schemes, diamond investment fraud and dodgy wine investments because they think that the regulators are policing the whole system. Individuals put too much faith in the system.

Better to be honest about it. Osborne needs to go further. He needs to further demystify the financial system and let individuals get on with their own investments. That would open up the financial markets to more simple investment products that investors understand. Because I firmly believe that with a little help, investing is something anyone can manage on their own. While unregulated, the system would be an awful lot safer than what goes on behind the closed doors of today’s highly regulated investment banks!

Your money. Your look out!

Bengt Saelensminde,
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Ed note: The above article was originally published in MoneyWeek.

From the Archives…

Hashing Out the Iron Ore Price
22-03-14 – Shae Smith

Join Money Morning on Google+


By MoneyMorning.com.au

USDJPY is now in downtrend from 102.68

USDJPY is now in downtrend from 102.68. Deeper decline to test 101.20 support would likely be seen, a breakdown below this level will confirm that the longer term downtrend from 103.76 has resumed, then the following downward movement could bring price to 98.00 zone. Resistance is at 102.68, only break above this level will indicate that lengthier sideways movement in a range between 101.20 and 103.76 is underway, then further rise to 103.50 area could be seen.

usdjpy

Provided by ForexCycle.com