InvestMacro Forex News

Commodities climb higher as the USD weakens following the FOCM Minutes, maintaining the bullish trends set earlier this week.

Gold crosses above $1306.60 pivot

After an intraday double top around $1314 and a dip below the small pivot zone at $1306.60, Gold proceeded to test the major handle at $1300 and reversed in this area. The configuration of the trend is bullish, with higher highs and higher lows; consequently a rally above $1314 is expected next.

Resistance levels: $1317; $1321; $1334
Support levels: $1306.6; $1300; $1294

Silver rebounds from $19.60 support

After a slow bullish consolidation that ended around $21.21, Silver couldn’t cross above 100 Simple Moving Average (on both Daily and 4H timeframes). Today the pair fell towards the original support and bounced several cents away from it, at $19.60. A strong close above $19.90-$20.00 area leads to the formation of a bullish Pin bar price action pattern on the Daily chart, which suggests more bullish action come tomorrow, if $20.21 fails to act as resistance again.

Resistance levels: $20.02 (green line – 100 Moving Average); $20.21; $20.59.
Support levels: $19.56; $19.11; $18.64

Crude Oil heads towards $105.00 – $105.20

Sweet Crude Oil Futures for delivery in May broke outside the triangle chart pattern yesterday around $101.30. Within hours price was already stable above the previous high at $102.21. The rally continued today without any corrections. Current daily high is $103.74. Before price heads towards $105 – $105.20 resistance, a re-test of the previous support at $102.21 is not excluded, with the level turning into support this time.

Resistance levels: $104.15, $105.00; $105.20.
Support levels: $102.21; $100.18, $98.85.

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Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

EURUSD: Although EUR is bullish, it is now seen hesitating ahead of its key resistance located at the 1.3820 level. Unless it decisive breaks and holds above that level, the risk is for it to trigger a pullback lower. However, above here will turn focus to the 1.3900 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3966 level where a breach will aim at the 1.4000 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.3737 level followed by the 1.3676 level. Further down, support stands at the 1.3600 level where a violation will target the 1.3550 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside in the long term though hesitating.

Article by www.fxtechstrategy.com

By CentralBankNews.info
    Poland’s central bank maintained its reference rate at 2.50 percent, as widely expected, and reiterated that “interest rates should be kept unchanged for a longer period of time, i.e. at least until the end of the third quarter of 2014.”
    Last month the National Bank of Poland (NBP) pushed back the time frame for any rate change until the end of the third quarter of this year from its previous guidance of maintaining rates at least until the end of the second quarter.
    “In the opinion of the Council, gradual economic recovery is likely to continue in the coming quarters, however, inflationary pressures will remain subdued,” said the central bank which cut its rate by a total of 225 basis points from November 2012 through July 2013.
    Poland’s headline inflation rate rose to 0.7 percent in February from January’s 0.5 percent, but the NBP said it remained “markedly below” the bank’s 2.5 percent target, plus/minus one percentage point.
    It added that core inflation was also at a low level, producer prices declined further and inflation expectations are low.
    In its latest monetary policy report, the central bank forecast inflation in 2014 of 0.8 percent to 1.4 percent and 2015 inflation of 1.0 to 2.6 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week forecast 2014 inflation of 1.5 percent and 2.4 percent in 2015 compared with 2013’s 0.9 percent.

     The latest economic data show that Poland’s economic recovery is continuing, with the central bank saying growth in industrial output and retail sales has accelerated in the first months and in February construction and assembly output also rose.
    The recovery is gradually being transmitted to the labour market, though the unemployment rate remains at an elevated level which restricts wage growth. Poland’s unemployment rate eased to 13.6 percent in February, the second month of declining joblessness.
    Poland’s Gross Domestic Product rose by 0.6 percent in fourth quarter from third quarter for annual growth of 2.7 percent, up from 1.9 percent in third quarter and the third quarter of accelerating growth.
    The NBP forecasts growth this year of 2.9 to 4.2 percent, up from 2013’s 1.6 percent, and 2.7 to 4.8 percent in 2015. The IMF projects 2014 growth of 3.1 percent and 3.3 percent in 2015.

    http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb

The British Pound maintains a positive sentiment against the Euro currency, after UK trade deficit narrowed to 9.094 billion in February from 9.463 billion pounds in January. German Trade Balance came out at 15.7B, lower than the expected 18.0B.

EUR/GBP is expected to slowly drift lower towards 0.8200 until tomorrow, when volatility will increase surrounding GBP Asset Purchase Facility, BOE Official Bank Rate statement, MPC Rate Statement and the G20 Meeting.

Technical Analysis

Until this week EUR/GBP was respecting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement between 0.8157 and 0.84000. While bullish rejections have been restricted around 8.3000/10 and the 50 moving average on the 4H timeframe, the bullish scenarios remained intact as long as the pair didn’t close below the 0.8250.

0.8250 has turned into resistance, as price tested the level again from below. A secondary resistance is the 50 Simple Moving Average on 4H, currently at 0.8266, as price seems to respect it very well for this bearish moving.

This recent weakness suggests EUR/GBP will eventually target 100% down to 0.8157. Even so, the intermediary level between 0.8190-0.8200 can pose a problem and offer a decent support in the next trading sessions.

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Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

USDCHF fell to a new low of the year in February so market remains in bearish mode as long as 0.9080 swing high is not breached; but the question is for how long. We are looking at an ending diagonal in wave C that suggests a coming bullish reversal sometime this year, most likely in the second part of 2014. On the chart we are tracking wave (5), final leg in the pattern that may find a support at 0.8450-0.8550 area. A rise back above 0.9080 would suggest a bullish turning point.

USDCHF Daily Elliott Wave Analysis

USDCHF Four Hour

USDCHF has turned nicely to the downside since Friday, clearly in impulsive manner. Notice that market also retraced back to the area of wave B swing low after a broken support line of an upward channel. That’s a very strong and important evidence for a trend change, thus it suggests that top has been formed at 0.8951 and that market will continue to the downside after any short-term corrective bounce. Ideally we will see a wave 2 retracement back to 0.8870/90 where broken support line may not become a resistance.

USDCHF 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

Gold futures were seen trading higher on Wednesday, climbing towards a two-week high before the release of the US Federal Reserve minutes from the Fed’s March meeting  which is scheduled for release later in the day and expected to give a hint on the central bank’s monetary policy.

Meanwhile the recent developments in Ukraine increased the metal’s safe-haven status and signs of high demand in China boosted the metal.

Gold futures climbed 0.22% higher to $1312.10 an ounce at the time of writing on the New York Comex, the highest since March 26.While silver futures traded flat, edging 0.01% higher to $20.055 an ounce at the same time.

Gold- Fed Minutes

Following the Federal Reserve’s March 18-19 meeting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the US central bank might increase the benchmark interest rate in the next six months before the end of the asset-purchasing program, which is expected to end later in the year.

The US central bank reduced its monthly bond-purchases by $10 billion for the third time, leaving the purchases at $55 billion.

The yellow metal dropped by 28% last year on worries that the world’s largest economy grew, which would signify the end of monetary stimulus.

Weak Dollar

“Through this past session, spot gold managed a 0.9% advance with a modest uptick in derivative volume (ETFs and futures) yet, the lack of momentum and turnover still calls into question the conviction,” John Kicklighter, chief strategist at FXCM wrote in a note.

“It further begs the question: what percentage of this performance was gold’s innate strength versus the dollar’s universal weakness. When we price the metal in Yen, Australian dollars, euro, pounds or other currencies; its performance was either negative or unchanged. While gold may be an anti-dollar commodity, there are plenty of other currencies that will attract the capital first,” Kicklighter added.

The US dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, edged 0.06% higher at 79.8 points, below the 80-point level and the lowest since March 18.

Assets in the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Holdings; dropped 2.7 tons to 806.48 tons Tuesday, the lowest since March 7.

Meanwhile, ongoing tension between Russia and Ukraine over the annexed Black Sea Crimea peninsula continues as NATO issued another warning against Russia that any further intervention in Ukraine would cause tougher consequences.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Russia’s growth this year is expected to be restrained due to the ongoing tensions with Ukraine and could cause further damage if sanctions against the country build up.

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The post Gold Climbs Near Two-Week High; Fed Minutes in Focus appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Crude oil were seen trading lower on Wednesday, after climbing to a one-month high on Tuesday as the ongoing tension  between Ukraine and Russia continues.

On Tuesday, crude prices rallied on tensions between Russia and Ukraine and Russia and the weaker dollar, while traders are expecting the resumption of Libyan crude exports to weigh on the commodity.

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery dropped 0.36% to $102.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at the time of writing. While the European benchmark Brent crude for May settlement lost 0.18% to $107.50 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange at the same time.

US Crude Supplies

Reports from the American Petroleum Institute showed that US stockpiles climbed by 7.08 million barrels last week.

Meanwhile, oil traders are expecting the Energy Information Administration to release a separate report which is expected to show a rise in crude oil inventories by 380.8 million barrels in the week ending April 4, according to analysts. Gasoline inventories are forecasted to have dropped by 1 million barrels.

Ukraine Ongoing Tension

On Monday, the US Secretary of State John Kerry warned Russia and said that additional sanctions aiming at Russia’s energy, banking and mining sectors will be imposed against the country if Russia intervenes further in Ukraine.

The Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet with senior officials to discuss economic ties with Ukraine, while the European Commission is arranging a “support group” for Ukraine to handle assistance, according to an EU diplomatic source.

 Libya

In Libya, holder of Africa’s largest reserves, the rebels are standing by a demand for a share of crude revenue before they surrender and reopen two export terminals, according to a mediator negotiating with the authorities.

Libya‘s output have dropped by more than 1 million barrels a day in the past year, making the country the smallest among OPEC’s 12 producers.

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The post Crude Trades Lower From Month-High appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

The Forex pin bar trading strategy is by far my favorite price action pattern. In this lesson we’re going to cover what makes a pin bar a pin bar, how to know if a pin bar is worth trading as well as entry and exit strategies. As always, the term ‘bar’ is interchangeable with ‘candlestick’, however the common term has always been pin bar, not pin candlestick 😉

Before getting into the actual Forex pin bar trading strategy, we need to know the parts that make up a pin bar so we can easily identify them.

What is a Pin Bar?

Let’s start with the “tail” of the pin bar, which is its defining characteristic and also sometimes called the “wick” or “shadow”. The tail of a pin bar should be at least 2/3 the length of the entire bar. The longer the better, but it must make up at least 2/3 of the bar from end to end. Notice in the image to the right, the tail is about 3/4 of the entire bar, so this qualifies.

The “body” of a pin bar is also important as it represents the open and close of the pin bar. The open and close should be close together; the closer the better. The body should also be close to the end of the pin bar. Notice how close the open and close are to the nose of the pin bar in the image.

Last but not least, the “nose” of the pin bar. While not as important as the tail or body, the nose is important only as it relates to the tail and body. This is because if the tail is at least 2/3 of the entire bar and the body is small, then the nose should also be relatively small. Also know that a pin bar doesn’t need a nose to be a pin bar. Sometimes it’s non-existent if the open or close occur at the extreme end of the pin bar.

Two Types of Pin Bars

There are two main types of pin bars as it relates to price action patterns that are taught in my price action course. Most traders assume the pin bar is simply a reversal pattern, and it is, but there’s another way to trade pin bars that I’ll explain shortly. First, let’s look at the more common way to trade pin bars as a reversal pattern.

The reversal pin bar (above) is best played in a ranging market or on a pullback within a larger trend. Let’s look at both in action.

Below is a great example of a pin bar that formed after price broke through support and then retested it from the other side as resistance. This is actually a pattern that’s still taking shape as I type this.

Now for the other type of reversal pin bar, which can be found in a ranging market…

Forex pin bar trading strategy

Justin Bennett is a full-time Forex trader and Owner of Daily Price Action. His Forex trading career began 6 years ago and has followed a path similar to many traders. For the first 3 years he tried nearly every indicator and strategy known to man, but each time the journey ended where it began, frustrated and in search of the next “holy grail” that would bring consistent profits. It wasn’t until he cleared every indicator from his chart that he had his “ah ha” moment. For the past 3 years, Justin has worked to perfect that moment into something that can be easily duplicated by other traders in search of consistent profits.

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for April 9^th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Eurodollar continues growing up, breaking target levels one by one. Closest target for bulls is the group of fibo levels at 1.3850: if they rebound from these levels, pair may reverse downwards.

As we can see at H1 chart, market rebounded from correctional level of 38.2%. Possibly, in the nearest future pair may break maximum and reach upper target levels. I’ll move stop on my orders into the black as soon as market starts moving upwards.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Bears are still in charge; price is moving at level of 50% and may break it during the next several hours. Main target is at level of 61.8%, pair may reach this level and then rebound from it.

During local correction, I opened short-term sell order with tight stop. Earlier market rebounded from the group of upper fibo levels right inside one of temporary fibo-zones. Probably, Franc may reach new minimums during the day.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for April 9^th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Probably, Euro finished ascending zigzag (D) of [B] and right now is forming final descending zigzag (E) of [B].

Possibly, price finished descending impulse [i] of A of (E) of zigzag (E). Right now, pair is forming local ascending correction [ii] of A of (E), after which Euro may continue falling down.

Probably, pair is finishing ascending correction [ii] of A or its first wave (a) of [ii], which may be followed by reverse downwards.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Probably, Pound is completing final wedge [c] of D of ascending zigzag D of (B) with extension in its first wave (i) of [c]. After completing zigzag D of (B), price is expected to start final descending zigzag E of (B).

Possibly, pair finished descending correction (iv) of [c] of D of ascending wedge [c] of D and started forming final ascending wave (v) of [c] of D.

Probably, price is completing ascending impulse iii of (v), which may be followed by descending correction iv of (v).

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Probably, Franc completed descending zigzag D of (4) and right now is forming final ascending zigzag E of (4).

Possibly, price finished impulse (i) of [a] of E of final ascending zigzag E of 4. Right now, pair forming local descending correction (ii) of [a] of E, after which instrument may continue moving upwards.

Probably, price is completing descending correction impulse (ii) of [a] or its first wave a of (ii).

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

Probably, Yen is finishing ascending impulse (A) and right now is forming long horizontal correction 4 of (A). If this assumption is correct, then after completing skewed triangle 4, price is expected to make final ascending movement inside wave 5 of (A).

Probably, pair completed (or is completing) skewed triangle 4, which may be followed by final ascending wave 5.

Possibly, price finished (or is finishing) descending zigzag [e] of 4, which may be followed by final ascending wave 5.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.