GBP/AUD Reaches A Temporary Equilibrium As Downtrend Stalls.

Technical Sentiment: Bearish

Key Takeaways

  • GBP/AUD finds a temporary bottom at 1.7735;
  • The Daily downtrend risks invalidation if a higher swing high is made;
  • Downtrend will continue on a break below 1.7735.

The British Pound appears to have reached an equilibrium against the Australian Dollar in the last few days. On the fundamental side, both currencies have been backed by stable news releases this week, therefore the lack of volatility is not a major surprise right now. RBA Monetary Policy left the cash rate unchanged at 2.5% and implied there would be no change this year; while UK Inflation fell in March to it’s lowest in four years.

Daily Downtrend and Oversold Conditions

GBPAUD Daily

GBP/AUD downtrend hit 100% Fibonacci Extension for the 1000 pips plus bearish swing between January and February, with the extension starting from the 1.8822 lower high. A logical target towards the downside should be the 200-Day Moving Average, currently priced at 1.7641. Stochastics is in oversold territory, and has been for over a month now, yet there were little to no corrections towards the upside during this time.

 

Short Term Bottom At 1.7735

GBPAUD 4H

With multiple rejections and a 4-hour Bullish Engulfing Bar on the last test, the 1.7735 support confluence represents the key level for the upcoming trading sessions. Further consolidation between 1.7735-1.7830, while underlining the temporary equilibrium, is more likely to lead to a bearish break and a continuation of the major downtrend, towards the 200-Day Moving Average.

GBP/AUD has a long way to go before invalidating the downtrend completely. The first hurdle towards the upside is a combination between the 50 and 100 Simple Moving Averages on the 4H timeframe. Intermediary pivot zones at 1.7950 and 1.8020 should be cleared in order to create higher swing highs. In that case the pair would eventually target 1.8120.

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Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

 

 

 

 

 

 

The U.S. Dollar Trying to Regain Lost Positions

The EURUSD Running a Risk to Fall to 1.3720

ECB comments influenced negatively on the dynamics of the EURUSD, but yesterday any serious fluctuations were not observed. The pair dropped to the level of 1.3808, which was able to provide support, after that it froze just above this level. Despite preserved pressure the pair is holding above the 38th figure. It needs to break and consolidate below it to continue declining to the support 1.3720. Growth attempts should be used for opening short positions. An ascending impulse will be strengthened while breaking steadily through highs.

eur

The GBPUSD Can Test 1.6640/00

Yesterday, the GBPUSD was under pressure, but a decline in the pair was limited by the level of 1.6697, which was able to provide support. The pair has retreated from it to 1.6742, but pressure remains. In the short term, the pound can decline to 1.6640—1.6600, but it is worth noting that today data on consumer inflation in Great Britain are published that can significantly influence the dynamics of the pair. Thus, it is better to refrain from taking actions before they are released.

gbp

The USDCHF Trying to Resume Lost Positions

The USDCHF is gradually recovering and has already risen to 0.8805. At this stage, yesterday’s consolidation looks solely corrective, so it is not necessary to mention a basis formation and a trend reversal. The dollar needs to overcome the resistance around the level of 0.8952 to improve its perspectives. Until then the risks to resume a decline with further testing the 87th figure will be kept.

chf

The USDJPY Retreats to the 102nd Figure

Yesterday, the USDJPY pair rose above the resistance level of 101.59, but the bulls failed to move above the 102nd figure. A rebound from the support around 101.59-101.22 does not mean the completion of a descending correction and provides an opportunity to open short positions. A rise above 102.00/13 will serve for weakening a bearish impulse, and the ability to rise and consolidate above the 103rd figure will signal about an ascending trend reversal. So far the risks to test 101.22 are kept.

jpy

 

provided by IAFT

 

 

 

 

Euro Weakens Further After German ZEW Data

By HY Markets Forex Blog

The 18-nation currency traded slightly lower on Tuesday, after reports showed that the eurozone’s number one economy worsened for the fourth consecutive month, as tensions from Ukraine and the stronger greenback continue to weigh on the euro.

Germany’s ZEW Index, which shows the investor sentiment for the next six months, worsened for the fourth month in a row to 43.2 in April, dropping from the previous figure of 46.6 points seen in March. The current situation index climbed to 59.5 points, compared to 51.3 seen in the previous month.

The euro edged 0.14% lower at the time of writing to $1.3799 after the release of the German ZEW index on Tuesday.

The European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi also intervened against the euro over the weekend that “the strengthening of the exchange rate would require further monetary policy accommodation.”

Last week, the euro strengthened 1.33% against the US dollar, until the ECB President Mario Draghi intervened. On Friday, the 18-nation currency reached $1.3904.

The euro is getting pressured by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, after tensions between the countries escalated over the weekend, adding concerns that Ukraine could get into an extended civil war.

Euro – Fed Speeches

This week, investors will be focusing on the Federal Open Market Committee members’ speeches which are scheduled to hold through the week.

The Federal representatives that are expected to give speeches this week include Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser in Stone Mountain on Tuesday, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo at the New York Stock Exchange on Monday and Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota at the Town Hall Forum on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is also expected to speak on Wednesday at the 2014 Financial Markets Conference in Stone Mountain and on Thursday she will attend the Economic Club of New York.

Investors will be focusing on the Yellen’s upcoming talks for any hints and additional information emphasizing her previous comments on the timing of when interest rate could possibly increase.

 

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Gold Drops from Three-Week High on Upbeat Data

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Gold prices were seen trading lower, slipping from a three-month high on Tuesday, while traders focus on the ongoing situation in Ukraine.

Gold for immediate delivery edged 0.54% lower to $1,320.30 an ounce at the time of writing, while silver futures slipped 0.65% lower to $19.88 an ounce at the same time.

The yellow metal reached $1,331.20 an ounce on Monday, the highest level since March 24. The metal was lifted by the tension in Ukraine on Monday but later dropped, following the release of the upbeat US data.

The dollar index, the index that measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of its major peers, climbed 0.05% higher at 79.77 at the time of writing.

Holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust; climbed 1.8 tons to 806.22 tons on Monday, the highest in three weeks.

Gold – Ukraine

Over the weekend, rebels took over the police and government buildings in several cities across the eastern region of Ukraine after a Ukrainian secret service agent died in a shooting near the city of Slovyansk. Officials from the Western nations as well as Russia continue to accuse each other over the violence.

However on Monday, Ukraine’s interim president and parliament speaker Oleksandr Turchynov said there was a possibility of a national referendum on granting regional autonomy. Turchynov also called on the United Nations to send peacekeepers to help the country.

Gold – US Data

Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Monday showed that retail sales in the US rose 1.1% in March, higher than analysts’ forecasts of a 0.8% rise and compared to the previous figure of a 0.7% gain in February.

Core retail sales climbed 0.8% higher, compared to analysts’ estimates of 0.5% and higher than the revised increase of 0.4% seen in the previous month.

 

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Things That Make You Go Hmmm: What’s the Frequency Zenith?

By Grant Williams

WARNING: This week’s Things That Make You Go Hmmm… is going to run a little longer than usual, I’m afraid, so if you have some time to kill, strap yourself in for the ride.

Yes. I have read it.

For the last couple of weeks those have been the five words I have used the most — by a country mile.

The second most-used five-word combination during that time has been “I know, what a tool.”

The subject to which the first group of words pertains is, of course, Michael Lewis’s new book, Flash Boys; and the second phrase refers to a certain president of a certain exchange, who made a complete fool of himself during the fierce media debate that has surrounded the book since it burst upon the public consciousness in the space of what ironically felt like a few nanoseconds. (The particular piece to which I refer has to be seen to be believed; but if you somehow missed it, you’ll have your chance. Stick around.)

Now, before we get started, let’s get a few things straight right off the BAT(s).

Firstly, I am an enormous fan of Michael Lewis’s work. I think he is an incredible storyteller with a gift for narrative worthy of a place alongside many modern greats. I have read each of his books and enjoyed them all tremendously. Michael has an ability to weave complex subject matter into a tapestry that can be understood and enjoyed by many who might otherwise find such material utterly incomprehensible.

Secondly, I am no expert in high-frequency trading, but I have had some experience of it in recent years; and I have spent some considerable time analyzing it from a business perspective, which has given me a reasonable understanding of its mechanics.

Thirdly, whilst I have limited direct experience of HFT, I DO have almost thirty years’ hands-on experience of equity, bond, and commodity markets in the US, UK, Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia, and Japan, as well as in another dozen or so countries across Asia Pacific; and having watched markets of all types move in strange ways for seemingly no reason until, a few moments later, the cause of the move revealed itself, I feel I have developed enough of an understanding about how the markets work and, perhaps more importantly, about the people who MAKE them work, to venture an opinion or two about the subjects raised by Michael Lewis inFlash Boys.

But before we get to the book that is on everybody’s Kindle, we’re going to turn to sport for a little lesson. Let’s go back in time to Game 6 of the American League Championship Series between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees in 2004, and recall the actions of another “Flash Boy,” Alex Rodriguez, the Yankees’ star third baseman.

Now, at this point, I’m sure the thousands of non-baseball fans amongst you are tuning out in your droves; but in order to try to keep you engaged, let me also tell you a parallel story from the football (or “soccer,” if you must) 2002 World Cup in South Korea, a tale that features one of its brightest stars of that era, the Brazilian midfielder Rivaldo … and some decidedly unsavory antics.

Let’s see how we get on with this whole parallel story thing, shall we? I know Michael Lewis would do a phenomenal job of weaving the two stories together. Me? I’m not so sure…

Deep breath.

In 2002, Rivaldo Vitor Borba Ferreira was a footballer at the very top of the world game. He had helped Brazil reach the final of the 1998 World Cup (where they lost to France), and four years later he was one-third of the renowned “Three Rs,” alongside Ronaldo and Ronaldinho (sadly NOT referred to as “the Two Ronnies”), who spearheaded the dynamic Brazilian team that was rightly installed as the prohibitive favourite to win the trophy that year.

In Brazil’s opening game against Turkey on June 3rd, Rivaldo scored a goal in the 87th minute to give Brazil a 2-1 lead with only three minutes to play, and was on his way to earning the Man of the Match award (think “MVP,” baseball fans). With seconds of added time left, Brazil won a corner, which Rivaldo wandered across the pitch to take at a pace which could, at best, be described as “lacking a degree of urgency.” The ball was at the feet of Turkish defender Hakan Ünsal, who most certainly WAS in a hurry…

(Cue Michael Lewis-like change of scene to increase the dramatic tension.)

Game 6 of the 2004 ALCS, played at Yankee Stadium on October 19, 2004, had urgency to spare, as the Boston Red Sox, having lost the first three games of the series to their hated rivals from New York, needed a win to tie the series at 3 games each and force a Game 7 decider, which would be played at The Stadium the following night. One more loss and their season was over. (No team had ever come from 3 games down to take a Championship Series.)

The Yankees were led by their talismanic third baseman, Alex Rodriguez, who had almost joined the Red Sox earlier that year after the team had suffered a heart-breaking Game 7 loss in the 2003 ALCS — to whom else but the Yankees — only to have the deal voided at the last minute by the players’ union, a move which opened the door for the Yankees to steal the highest-paid and, at the time, most prolific player in the game from under the noses of the seemingly cursed Red Sox. (You can see how that whole situation played out in the excellent ESPN short documentary The Deal).

Rodriguez had been on a tear in 2004 and would end the season with 36 home runs, 106 RBIs, 112 runs scored, and 28 stolen bases. (Soccer fans, I’d give you a comparison, but there isn’t one. Think: doing everything. Really well.) This made Rodriguez only the third player in the 100+ years of baseball history to compile at least 35 home runs, 100 RBIs, and 100 runs scored in seven consecutive seasons (joining two other players with names that even soccer fans would know [kinda]: Babe Ruth and Jimmie Foxx). (No, NOT the actor who won an Oscar for Ray, soccer fans.)

During the playoffs, Rodriguez had dominated the Minnesota Twins, batting .421 with a slugging percentage of .737. (Soccer fans, let’s face it, baseball owns statistics. You got nuthin’. Nuthin’. Take it from me, Rodriguez was Messi with a bat.) He had also equaled the single-game post-season record by scoring five runs in Game 3 as the Yankees seized a 3-0 lead.

But in Game 6, Messi with a bat was about to get messy with at-bats as his form deserted him and he found himself at the plate in the 8th inning, facing Red Sox relief pitcher Bronson Arroyo, in the game for starting pitcher Curt Schilling, who had battled heroically through seven innings with a torn tendon sheath in his right ankle.

With the Yankees down 4-2 and team captain Derek Jeter on first base, Rodriguez represented the tying run…

On that steamy night two years prior, in a purpose-built stadium in Korea, Rivaldo stood by the corner flag, hands on his knees, waiting oh so patiently for the clock to run down Ünsal to pass the ball to him. The fans whistled their derision at the Brazilian’s delaying tactics. Sadly, time wasting in such situations is commonplace in football, and though the referees are obliged to add additional seconds to negate these tactics, they seldom do so effectively.

Ünsal was no doubt frustrated at the Brazilian’s gamesmanship and kicked the ball towards him at some pace in an attempt to speed things up.

Rivaldo flinched and tried to turn away from the incoming ball, which struck him roughly two inches above his right knee.

With the linesman (baseball fans, think: third base umpire) standing no more than two or three feet from the Brazilian, Rivaldo collapsed to the ground, clutching hisface as if he had pole-axed by the incoming projectile, and writhing around as if every bone in his face had been shattered by the evil Turk.

To the astonishment of everybody in the stands, commentators from over a hundred countries, hundreds of millions of fans around the world, and, above all, Ünsal himself, the Turkish player was shown a red card and sent off (baseball fans, think: ejected) for his “crime.”

Rivaldo, having made a miraculous recovery, took the resulting corner, and Brazil held on against the ten men of Turkey for the victory.

Back in the Bronx, with the count at 2-2 (soccer fans, that’s two balls and two strikes, which means… oh, to hell with it. Baseball is so much trickier to explain. From here on in, you’re on your own), Alex Rodriguez swung his bat, made contact with Arroyo’s pitch, and sent it bobbling down the first-base line. As soon as he hit it, Rodriguez set off in a furious foot race that he had absolutely no chance of winning as he tried to beat the ball to first base. He knew it. We knew it.

Sure enough, Arroyo, with a head start, got to the ball first and took the two or three steps necessary to tag the Yankee with the ball (before he reached first base, which would render him “out” and send him back to the dugout, bringing the Yankee inning closer to an end).

However, as he reached out to tag Rodriguez, the ball spun loose from Arroyo’s glove and bobbled into right field, keeping the play alive and letting Jeter score from second and throw the Yankees a lifeline.

Rodriguez continued to second base, where he stopped, called time out, clapped his hands, and whooped.

Cue pandemonium.

Everybody in the stadium — except the first-base umpire … and presumably the millions at home — had seen Rodriguez intentionally slap the ball from Arroyo’s glove, a move which in baseball parlance is known as “cheating.” (Soccer fans, think: cheating.)

After a strong protest from Red Sox manager Terry Francona and a lengthy consultation among the various umpires, justice was done. Rodriguez was called “out,” Jeter was returned to second base, and the score remained 4-2.

The Red Sox would go on to win the game and, the following night, become the first team in baseball history to win a series after losing the first three games. They would go on to defeat the St. Louis Cardinals 4-0 in the 100th World Series (soccer fans, think: national championship with no “world” connotation whatsoever) and to vanquish a famous “curse” that had persisted for 86 years.

Now, armed with that background, watch these two defining moments HERE and HERE.

In the aftermath, both players were defiant. Rivaldo, amazingly, tried to paint himself as the victim:

(BBC): Rivaldo had admitted fooling the referee by clutching his face after Ünsal kicked the ball at his leg while he was waiting to take a corner in the closing moments of the Group C match.

But he shrugged off the fine and defended his faking as part and parcel of the game.

The 30-year-old said: “I’m calm about the punishment.

“I am not sorry about anything.

“I was both the victim and the person who got fined.

“Obviously the ball didn’t hit me in the face, but I was still the victim. I did not hit anyone in the face.”

… whilst Rodriguez was, for some reason, “perplexed”:

(NY Times): Alex Rodriguez was standing on second base when the umpires decided that he did not belong there. He folded his hands atop his helmet and screamed, “What?’’

He was, to use his word, perplexed.

After the game, Yankees Manager Joe Torre demonstrated that, when it comes to seeing important plays that go against your team, there is one thing common to both soccer AND baseball: the unreliability of a manager’s eyesight. These guys see EVERYTHING that goes against their team perfectly but somehow always seem to be curiously oblivious when the shoe is on the other foot:

(NY Times): “Randy Marsh was closer than anyone else, and it looked like there were bodies all over the place,’’ Torre said, referring to the fact that first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz was near the play. “There were a lot of bodies in front of me, so I can’t tell you what I saw. I was upset it turned out the way it did for a couple of reasons.”

Presumably neither of those reasons involved the fact that the call was right.

Anyway, the point of these two stories as they pertain to Flash Boys is this:

Both Rodriguez and Rivaldo knew there were dozens of TV cameras on them. They knew there were millions of pairs of eyes on them around the world, and they knew that they were being watched by officials charged with monitoring the games to ensure fairness and punish malfeasance — and yet, knowing all that to be true, they both instinctively cheated to try to gain an edge.

That is how they, as competitors, are wired. Whether it’s right or wrong is irrelevant. (It’s wrong, in case you were wondering.) They were both given a set of rules within which to play, and both chose to step outside those rules in the hope that they would get away with it.

Rivaldo did, Rodriguez didn’t.

It’s a fine line, but the reward for success — even if it does involve bending the rules — is considerable.

Lewis’s media blitz began on Sunday night with an appearance on 60 Minutes, and in answering a simple opening question with a typically florid response, he sparked a media storm the likes of which I haven’t seen in a long, long time.

Steve Kroft: What’s the headline here?

Michael Lewis: Stock market’s rigged. The United States stock market, the most iconic market in global capitalism, is rigged.

Those words sent financial anchors on CNBC and Bloomberg TV into a state of apoplexy at the mere suggestion that the playing field in financial markets is anything but scrupulously fair.

As I watched the circus unpack its tents, erect them, and send a parade of clowns careening into the ring, I was genuinely baffled at what I was seeing.

The first act was Bill O’Brien, the president of BATS (one of the exchanges which, according to Lewis’s book, offers an unfair advantage to high-frequency traders), going toe-to-toe on CNBC with the hero of the book, Brad Katsuyama, once of RBC and now the founder of IEX, an exchange dedicated to leveling the playing field for the average investor.

Until last Sunday, I had never heard of either man, nor had I ever seen them in action.

What followed was extraordinary.

If you haven’t seen the clip, you can (and should) watch it HERE, because excerpts from a transcript cannot do justice to either the defensiveness of O’Brien or the cool confidence of Katsuyama; but from the off, had it been a fight, it would have been stopped before one of the participants embarrassed himself any further:

(CNBC):O’Brien: I have been shaking my head a lot the last 36 hours. First thing I would say, Michael and Brad, shame on both of you for falsely accusing literally thousands of people and possibly scaring millions of investors in an effort to promote a business model.

Bob Pisani (to Katsuyama): You are very respected on the street. I have known you a little while. You are thought very highly of. Do you think the markets are rigged?

Katsuyama (calmly): I think it’s very hard to put a word on it…

O’Brien (animatedly): He said it in the book. You said it in the book. “That’s when I knew the markets were rigged.” It’s disgusting that you are trying to parse your words now. Okay?

Katsuyama (calmly): Let me walk you through an example…

O’Brien: It’s a yes or no question. Do you believe it or not?

Katsuyama (calmly): I believe the markets are rigged.

O’Brien (somewhat triumphantly): Okay. There you go.

Katsuyama (calmly): I also think that you are part of the rigging. If you want to do this, let’s do this.

From there, Katsuyama proceeded to ask O’Brien how his own exchange (the one he, O’Brien, is president of) prices trades:

O’Brien: We use the direct feeds and the SIP (Securities Information Processor) in combination.

Katsuyama: I asked a question. Not what you use to route. What do you use to price trades in your matching engine on Direct Edge?

O’Brien: We use direct feeds.

Katsuyama: No.

O’Brien: Yes, we do…

Katsuyama: You use the SIP.

O’Brien: That is not true.

From there, O’Brien made the most successful attempt to make himself look a fool that I think I have ever seen (and on CNBC, that’s saying something). It was, I thought, painfully embarrassing to watch.

In my head, all I could hear was Sir Winston Churchill’s booming voice:

“Never engage in a battle of wits with an unarmed man.”

Less than 24 hours later…

(Wall Street Journal): BATS Global Markets Inc., under pressure from the New York Attorney General’s office, corrected statements made by a senior executive during a televised interview this week about how its exchanges work.

BATS President William O’Brien, during a CNBC interview Tuesday, said BATS’s Direct Edge exchanges use high-speed data feeds to price stock trades. Thursday, the exchange operator said two of its exchanges, EDGA and EGX, use a slower feed, known as the Securities Information Processor, to price trades.

Viva El Presidente!

Anyway, the interesting thing to me, once I got past the sheer insanity of it all, was the level of amazement shown by the CNBC journalists that the market could possibly be “rigged” in any way, shape, or form.

That amazement was shared by the two anchors on Bloomberg’s Market Makers show, Stephanie Ruhle and Eric Schatzker, when their turn came to take a tilt at Lewis the following day:

Ruhle (bewildered): The market is rigged? That’s a big claim!

Lewis (even more bewildered): Well it IS rigged. If you read the book, I don’t think you’d put it down and say the market’s not rigged.

Then, after a pretty good casino analogy that was interrupted by the anchors a few times, Lewis got to the crux of the issue that had been bothering me as I watched:

Lewis: Why are you so invested in the idea this is fair? Why are you even arguing about this? It’s so clear… people are front-running the market. There’s plenty of evidence in the book.

Schatzker: Their orders are being “anticipated.”

Lewis (laughing at the escalating absurdity): Anticipated and run in front of…. [The HFTs] PAY to execute the orders. Tens of millions of dollars a year. Ask yourself THAT question. Why would ANYONE pay for the right to execute someone else’s stock market order?… It’s quite obvious. That order is an opportunity to exploit, because he has advance information about the pricing in the stock market. Is that “fair”?

Ruhle: Today, when I go to execute a stock, I feel like, man, how did that get jacked right in front of me, every time? I do feel that way. But fifteen years ago when I did a trade, I was paying significantly more to do it through a specialist because of what the fees were…. Is it a different situation than when specialists were on the floor?

Lewis (with a somewhat confused look on his face): I never said THAT.

Ruhle: So has the system ALWAYS been rigged?

Lewis: Yes.

Yes.

After watching these exchanges, I was so astounded that so many people could STILL live in a complete fantasy world under the illusion assumption that the markets couldn’t possibly be rigged that I turned to my friends in the Twittersphere:

That was the 2,567th tweet I have sent out and, in contrast to the nearly pathological indifference shown by the rest of the world to the previous 2,566, this one was retweeted 96 times. (Button it, Bieber! That’s an impressive number for me, OK?)

But who are these people who believe in unicorns and rainbows fair markets?

Click here to continue reading this article from Things That Make You Go Hmmm… – a free weekly newsletter by Grant Williams, a highly respected financial expert and current portfolio and strategy advisor at Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore.

 

Wave Analysis 15.04.2014 (DJIA Index, Crude Oil)

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for April 15th, 2014

DJIA Index

Probably, Index completed wave [2] in the form of double three pattern. On minor wave level, price is forming initial impulse inside wave (1). Stop on my yesterday’s buy order is already in the black.

More detailed wave structure is shown on H1 chart. Wave (Y) took the form of zigzag pattern and then price formed bullish impulse inside the first wave. Most likely, Index will form extension inside the third wave during the day.

Crude Oil

It looks like Oil is going to start fast and strong descending movement inside the third wave. Earlier, Oil formed bearish impulse inside wave 1, completed correction inside the second wave, and I decided to open my first sell order. I’m planning to increase my short position later during correction.

As we can see at the H1 chart, Oil completed impulse inside wave (C) and started forming initial descending impulse. Price may continue forming inside wave (1) on Tuesday, but in order to decrease risks I’ve moved stop into the black.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

 

 

 

 

 

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 15.04.2014 (EUR/USD, USD/CHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for April 15th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from the group of upper fibo levels, Eurodollar started new descending movement. Market hasn’t been able to eliminate Monday’s gap. Price may continue moving downwards during the day.

As we can see at H1 chart, closest target for bears is at local level of 61.8%. If pair breaks this level downwards, price will continue moving downwards.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After rebounding from the group of lower fibo levels, market started moving upwards. Stop on my buy order is already in the black. After completing local correction, pair is expected to continue growing up.

As we can see at H1 chart, price broke local level of 38.2% and may try to test level of 50% during the day. If bulls are able to break it, their next target will be at level of 61.8%.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

 

 

 

 

 

MIT “Accidently” Reveals An Enormous American Secret

By WallStreetDaily.com MIT "Accidently" Reveals An Enormous American Secret

MIT Technology Review just published its list of the world’s “50 Smartest Companies.”

The list is strictly a reflection of the companies having the biggest market impact through the sheer force of genuine innovation alone.

MIT’s list wasn’t concerned with which companies are 1) growing the fastest, 2) have the highest sales, or 3) tout the best stock performance. The list is solely concerned with which companies are the “smartest.”

And while I never agree with all 50, it’s always an enlightening article, as you can imagine.

But what’s even more interesting is the storyline BEHIND the list…

You see, as part of the economic recovery, there’s a secret revival afoot. One that other analysts and the press aren’t shrewd enough to realize is happening.

An “Accidental” Revelation…

To begin my yearly analysis of MIT’s list, the first thing I did was classify the companies by sector and industry.

No sweat, right?

Well, what I wasn’t expecting to find was the following…

Of the “50 Smartest Companies” in the world, 27 of them could easily be considered manufacturers.

As for the remaining companies on the list? They’re ALL making significant technological breakthroughs to reduce the cost to manufacture goods in the United States.

Do you realize what this means?

Manufacturing is making a big comeback!

I honestly can’t think of any better news to report on an otherwise ho-hum Tuesday.

This secret manufacturing revival bodes extremely well for both America’s economic future and stocks.

Manufacturing is essential for many reasons. According to the U.S. International Trade Commission and the Department of Commerce, manufactured products account for over 80% of the country’s exports.

Likewise, the presence of manufacturing facilities has a tremendous trickledown effect as a jobs multiplier. It’s estimated that there are four to five new jobs created for every ONE manufacturing job.

The emergence of cheap natural gas is factoring into the secret revival, as well.

All new U.S. manufacturing plants are being outfitted to benefit from the low cost of gas, which I expect to lead to the construction of even more plants.

I’m telling you, this is really exciting!

Still don’t believe me?

Well, the top three companies on MIT’s list give us all the proof we need.

World’s Smartest Company #1: Illumina, Inc. (ILMN)

San Diego-based Illumina is the market leader for analyzing DNA. Specifically, it develops, manufactures and markets integrated systems for large-scale genetics analysis.

Through innovation and strategic acquisitions, the company has vastly reduced the time it takes to crack a living tissue’s genetic code. It’s also ingeniously shrunk the costs involved, too.

Illumina is a profitable company with revenue of $387 million. While the current P/E is a bit high at 69, the market is so immense that I expect earnings to increase even further.

Buy on any dips.

World’s Smartest Company #2: Tesla (TSLA)

Backed by pure innovation, Tesla has overcome a ton of obstacles in order to design, construct and manufacture high-quality, battery-operated automobiles.

Since the metrics say that demand is ramping up, I flew to California to verify it myself. (Spreadsheets will never tell you everything.)

Sure enough, I noticed a fair number of Teslas on the road. More importantly, though, shopping malls with parking spaces equipped with free charging stations are popping up everywhere.

Still, though… in order to sell more cars, Tesla must get its sticker price down to the $30,000 range. Management has a plan to do it, too. But can it execute?

The plan calls for construction of a new Tesla manufacturing facility to produce the all-important battery system for the car. While I’m not convinced this alone makes the stock a “Buy,” I love that it will add 400 to 500 jobs to the economy.

World’s Smartest Company #3: Google (GOOG)

Google keeps pushing to increase revenue beyond the internet’s borders.

Even though it hasn’t been successful yet, the creation of Google Glass and the recent acquisition of Nest Products could change all of that.

I was lucky enough to get my hands on a developmental version of Google Glass, and I’ll concede that it’s really cool.

But under the old adage that “pioneers get slaughtered and settlers prosper,” these glasses aren’t ready to change the world anytime soon. And Google likely won’t be the company to ultimately win this niche of the market.

What about Google’s addition of Nest’s wireless smoke detectors and thermostats?

Well, they’re almost as cool as the glasses. (Even I plan to have them installed in my home. I mean, who doesn’t want to adjust the room temperature from a smartphone, right?)

But Nest’s boost to Google’s revenue is way too small to impact shares of such a behemoth company.

But no worries… in tomorrow’s issue, I’ll reveal my favorite company on MIT’s list of 50. Every portfolio should have at least a few shares! Until then!

Onward and upward,

Robert Williams
Founder, Wall Street Daily

The post MIT “Accidently” Reveals An Enormous American Secret appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: MIT “Accidently” Reveals An Enormous American Secret

EUR/USD Forecast And Price Action For April 15th

Article by Investazor.com

The EURUSD doesn’t stop to amaze me. The quotation touched 1.3900 before the Friday close. During the past weekend Draghi had a speech in which he mentioned the possibility of quantitative easing because the Euro is pretty high and it will hurt EU’s economy. Exactly what we were talking in our last EURUSD Forecast and Price Action analysis.

The currency pair opened this week with a negative gap which is not yet closed. Yesterday EU posted a lower than expected Industrial Production (0.2%), while US surprised with Core Retail and Retail Sales above estimates. Business Inventories for the United States were a bit lower, but insignificant for the US dollar rally. The price targeted 1.3800 and everything was in its favor.

See our last analysis for this currency pair: EUR/USD Forecast And Price Action For April 10th;

Today the price continued to drop under yesterday’s low and reached 1.3800 before the most important releases of the day. Continue reading this article to see which are the relevant economic indicators for today and what is the price action analysis suggesting.

The following are expected today:

EU – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (10:00 GMT). Scheduled to be released in several minutes, the ZEW economic sentiment for Germany is one of the most important leading indicators for the EU. In March it dropped under 46.6, not well at all considering its expectations of 52.8. Today it is expected even lower, at 46.3. In line with the forecast or lower would be very bad for the European single currency. A release above 50 would trigger a rally for the Euro.

EU – ZEW Economic Sentiment (10:00). This is the European indicator from ZEW. It is considered to be a medium impact release. Last month it was published below expectations but well above the 50 level. For April it is expected to be 60.7.

US – Core CPI (13:30). As we know inflation is very important for the economy, especially in this period. US’ Core CPI is expected to be again 0.1%. A positive surprise would trigger a rally for the US dollar, while a negative surprise or in line with its forecast would trigger a 10 to 20 pips in favor for the EU.

US – Fed Chair Yellen Speaks (13:45). The Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen is expected to deliver opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Financial Markets Conference in Stone Mountain, via satellite.

US – TIC Long-Term Purchases (14:00). For this month the TIC is expected to be around 31.6B after it was published 7.3B last month. If the difference will be this big the dollar could be bought even more. Even if it is a medium impact indicator I would still keep an eye on its release.

These are the most important releases for today. I am very curious about the ZEW publications. If it will come as a positive surprise then we might see a bounce from 1.3800 back to 1.3825/30. If it will be released bellow expectation I would see a continuation of the drop towards 1.3744 or lower.

EUR/USD Price Action

The price of the EURUSD opened with a negative gap this week and continued a down trend towards the 200 EMA. A break below this indicator would clearly be a negative signal. I am expecting though a short bounce from 1.3800 before continuing this trend.

The post EUR/USD Forecast And Price Action For April 15th appeared first on investazor.com.

Democracy and Government Debt: Extend and Pretend

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Over the past 80 years or so governments have been expected to provide more and more social services. That means bigger and bigger bills for the taxpayers of this generation and generations unborn. Since governments almost constantly run in the red, they often resemble cocaine addicts desperately looking for the next fix. The fix, in the case of governments, is the perpetual need for more money, no matter how much wealth the engine of a strong economy may be generating.

One of the delusions of any democratic government is the “other guy will pay” syndrome. Usually, in mature welfare state democracies lawmakers look toward election cycles and understand that there is never enough money to back their promises. So they pass the bill problems to the future by money printing and issuing bonds that won’t come due until after their elections have been won.

However, in most democracies, to quote former pro football coach George Allen, “the future is now.” Tens of millions of people in the United States, Europe, and Japan are retiring now after a lifetime of paying taxes into flawed government retirement funds. Democracies are facing problems keeping all the promises of former pols, most of whom now enjoy fat government pensions while the taxpayers struggle to pay the bills they left behind. So paying the bills is a perpetual problem for pols facing the next election.

For example, in the United States Social Security and Medicare “trust” funds surpluses have been arrogated over the years by both right- and left-wing governments. They used them to pay off political debts and make deficits seem smaller. However, President Bill Clinton implicitly conceded the scam. At the end of his presidency he was urging lawmakers “to save” Social Security. Why did it have to be saved? Where had years of high payroll taxes gone?

Luckily, for pols most voters don’t seem to understand that the overspending of the past now threatens their lifestyles and the value of their currencies. The scam goes on as governments look for new taxes to make good the promises of past governments. So today the latest fiscal gimmick is a rehash of an old scheme: “The rich will pay.”

The implication of this game is that the rest of us will enjoy a free, or low cost, ride, while a vast fortune of wealth goes into government coffers. Government services — everything from supposedly free medical services to free quality education to superb transportation services and on and on — will be provided at little or no cost because the rich — whoever they are — will pay.

Here in New York City, a new mayor with strong teacher union connections wants to extend pre-school public school programs by assessing a higher tax on those making $500,000 or more a year. At the national level, President Obama has stressed that those making $250,000 or more a year should pay higher taxes. The argument is also based on the idea that the government should step in and cure the problem of “income equality.”

Using this kind of thinking, one might bar certain teams from winning more championships (the New York Yankees, Real Madrid, the Green Bay Packers, the Boston Celtics) because they’ve won many more championships than most other teams so that’s unfair. The logic of the rich must pay pols is that league or the government must correct inequalities.

But inequalities among humans are many and are impossible to define since every individual is unique. Yet these kinds of policies not only don’t work, they hurt the US economy. They have been discussed and in some cases tried. In effect, they tell the successful: “You’re doing too well. We must do something about you.”

It reminds me of post-World-War-II tax policy. That’s when progressive tax policy dominated the system before the Kennedy administration tax cuts of the early 1960s. In the United States in the 1940s and 1950s, we actually had marginal tax rates of 94%. Think of that. If you reached a certain point and you were only able to keep six cents of every additional dollar you made. Why would you make that extra dollar? This is what happened in the 1940s and 1950s. High-income people would stop working late in the year when they were coming close to the 94%.

How did that help anyone?

Obviously, it hurt the US economy as talented people, in a modified Atlas Shrugged scenario, withdrew for part of the year. What about the rich? I want the same of them that I want of everyone else. I want them to continue to spend and invest as much as they want without worrying about what J.S. Mill called “a success tax.” Whether they consume or help build production by starting businesses that generates the “jobs” that our pols are perpetually baying for during these days of high unemployment and weak job growth.

But what about the rest of us — those making $250,000 or less? I doubt that raising taxes on the rich, who make up a small percentage of society, will make much of a difference. Consider many Western governments are running deficits in the hundreds of billions of dollars each year. The whole concept of soak the rich is silly and counterproductive. First, let us consider the people who already have wealth. If governments keep raising taxes when they reach a certain level these people can stop working just before the penalty rate is triggered. Unlike the rest of us, the rich don’t have to work for taxable wages. They already have substantial wealth.

And for the rest of us, middle and low income, does anyone actually think that, once the government collects still more higher taxes on the big earners that the new money will go to our central governments and they will give all the rest of us a break on taxes?

You can stop laughing now.

The counterargument to the rich-will-pay syndrome is thus: First, even the highest marginal tax rates on the rich will never generate the amount of money the government expects. As taxes go up people don’t work as hard, or in the case of people with modest incomes, they will work under the table. That’s a tremendous problem in a high tax nation such as Spain. Second, the history of so many central government programs is that, even when they generate a lot in taxes, tremendous amounts of the proceeds are eaten up in administrative costs.

Bureaucracies at the highest levels of governments are damn expensive to maintain. That is true whether one is speaking of aircraft carriers or Social Security. Indeed, in the case of the latter, I once heard an economist, Jeffrey Burnham, say at a conference that whenever Social Security has had a big surplus, governments have helped themselves to it. Here’s another example of the you-send-it-and-we’ll-spend-it-and-then-some philosophy that dominates democratic governments. In the 1980s in the United States there was a demand that toxic waste dumps be cleaned. The government, through its taxing power, raised hundreds of billions of dollars. What happened to the dump sites? Few of them were cleaned up.

What happened?

Most of the money was spent in administrative costs. The government shouldn’t raise taxes on the rich, or the rest of us. It should cut taxes by closing down whole departments of government and selling government assets. Let people, all people, take home more of their hard-earned money. With Social Security and other government welfare programs facing incredible funding gaps, it is more important than ever that people have private savings and investments. I mean assets under their control, not dependent on a government program that can change the payment levels with the stroke of a pol’s pen.

Let people not depend on the other guy, or of vote-hungry pols, to pay their bills. Let people build their own assets and take control of their lives through a remarkable system — more private property.

Gregory Bresiger
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Ed. note: This article was originally published in Laissez Faire.

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