Wealth and Happiness: The Other Wealth Effect

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Central bankers around the world have broken the taboo of printing money one after the other since the global financial crisis. Their aim was to pump the stock market higher to make investors feel richer. This concept was named ‘the wealth effect’.

Did it work? I’m far from sure. The economy in the US and Europe is still barely bumbling along.

But you’re not an economy. You’re you. So let’s explore how wealth affects you as an individual.

How are wealth and happiness related? There are studies showing every possible answer. Wealth makes you happy, or unhappy. Happiness makes you intrinsically wealthy and makes you stop caring about wealth. Some studies say the two are entirely unrelated.

So economists and psychologists are as clueless as they are confident in their conclusions. If you would like to be famous, the easiest way might be to become an academic and ‘discover’ the opposite of whatever the day’s conventional wisdom is on this topic. The latest studies, by the way, showed happiness and wealth are inextricably linked without limit. The richer you get, the happier you’ll be.

What confounds any attempt to study the links between wealth and happiness is that people perceive happiness differently. Some people don’t want to worry about things — they want to be content and not much more. Others want a more emotionally volatile life with all the ups and downs. These types of differences interfere with how economists calculate happiness and even wealth.

For example, there are plenty of people who view wealth as an end, not merely a means. Others become distressed at the responsibility of managing wealth. The difference in how these two groups of people perceive the link between wealth and happiness completely confuses any economist trying to study that link.

Making your personal wealth a matter of interest — like a hobby you take seriously — is perhaps the surest way to building a financially prosperous retirement. That’s not always easy to do. And it’s not for everyone. But if you do have that interest, foster it. Your spouse and friends might call you greedy. But their views are most likely driven by fear of having to deal with their own financial ‘obligations’. If you can turn those obligations into a challenge like a sailing race or a golf handicap, then you’ll get better and probably wealthier.

The fact that you’re reading this tells me you’ve probably decided to take an interest in your wealth and take charge. So I should also mention the dangers of linking your happiness to your wealth.

The first part is obvious. If your wealth takes a hit, it can damage your happiness. If this happens, your mental state could end up damaging your wealth even further. So you have to be honest with yourself and prepared. How would a bad result affect you?

Secondly, your relationships can suffer when managing your wealth becomes a large part of your life. Your spouse might not share your enthusiasm, or may disagree with your decisions. Decisions on spending and which lifestyle opportunities to make the most of can be very divisive. This is why lottery winners tend to struggle in their personal relationships. Suddenly being able to do and buy anything brings up differences in people’s priorities. Of course, friendships can also suffer due to differences in wealth.

How to Link Wealth and Happiness

The good thing about how clueless economists are about the effect of wealth on happiness (or the other way around) is that you can decide to control it. I think you should decide for yourself that your money will make you happy and being happy means making more money. 

The first step is taking a measured interest, as I mentioned. Your wealth is your responsibility. It’s very easy to sabotage yourself in a way that lets you blame others. ‘It was the financial advisor’s fault,’probably won’t be good enough for your future self’s happiness.

By ‘measured’ I mean that your happiness cannot be dependent on the amount of wealth you have. I think your enjoyment of managing your own wealth should come from the feeling of independence, pride, and acceptance that any mistakes are your own. Of course, the successes will be too. And your chances of success are higher if you take an interest.

Of course, this isn’t for everyone. If you know that managing your wealth may affect your happiness badly, taking on a different role could be a better option. Closely overseeing a trusted financial advisor’s decisions might help you distance yourself enough without losing the benefits of taking charge.

Nick Hubble+
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Ed Note: The above article is an edited extract from The Money for Life Letter, Nick Hubble’s retirement-focussed investment newsletter.

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

Monetary Policy Week in Review – May 12-16, 2014: ECB easing in June seen as a question of how and what, not if

By CentralBankNews.info
    Last week in global monetary policy, Armenia’s central bank cut its policy rate while four other banks maintained rates as it became clear that it is no longer a question of whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will ease policy, but just what tools it will decide to use.
    The ECB council has already twice discussed how to respond to powerful disinflationary forces and will be armed with the latest forecasts on June 5 when the final decision is taken.
    ECB President Mario Draghi began preparing financial markets and investors for easier policy on April 3 when the council for the first time “had a very rich and ample discussion” of unconventional measures along with rate cuts.
    The council continued its discussion during its May 8 meeting when Draghi took another step toward preparing markets for a move when he said the ECB council “is comfortable with acting next time,” but still wanted to wait for the latest quarterly forecasts.
    Since then the economic outlook for the euro zone has weakened and although inflation rose slightly in April, it remains far below the ECB’s objective of just under 2 percent, providing Draghi with fresh ammunition.
    Inflation in the 18-nation euro zone in April was 0.7 percent, stuck below 1.0 percent since October, and the economy expanded by only 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2014 from the previous quarter, about half the pace economists expected.
    In its forecast from March, the ECB already trimmed its 2014 inflation forecast to 1.0 percent and even by 2016 inflation is only expected to rise to 1.5 percent, still below the ECB target. The forecast for 2014 economic growth was revised upwards to 1.2 percent but the weak first quarter may not put that into question.

    The drumbeat of speculation over the ECB’s expected response to recent data and new forecasts culminated on Wednesday.
     A report from the Reuters news agency said ECB staff has prepared a package of options for the June council meeting, including cuts in all interest rates and measures aimed at boosting lending to small and medium-sized firms, the backbone of the euro zone’s troubled economy.
    Reuters quoted sources saying that a June rate cut “is more of less a done deal,” involving cuts of 10 to 20 basis points in all rates, including the 0.25 benchmark refinancing rate and the zero percent deposit rate, which would push it into negative terrain, a first for a major central bank.
    Then on Thursday, ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch essentially confirmed the report, telling journalists the ECB was preparing for possible deployment of more tools than “might even strike the most fertile imagination of journalists” who would get a “very precise answer” to the exact nature of these measures after the next council meeting.
    Apart from boosting growth and inflation, the ECB is hoping a round of stimulus would help take the steam out of the euro currency.
    In recent months, ECB policy makers have been unusually vocal about exchange rates, concerned that a strong euro is suppressing inflation by holding down import prices and also making euro area exports less competitive internationally.
    The single currency appears to have gained strength from a return of investors’ appetite for bonds from the euro zone periphery countries and a belief that the economy is finally turning the corner.
    Since early July 2013, the euro had been appreciating steadily from around 1.28 in against the U.S. dollar around 1.394 on the morning of May 8, a gain of almost 8 percent.
    But Draghi’s signal of likely ECB easing in June appears to have the steam out of the euro for now. On Friday the euro was quoted at 1.369, down 1.80 percent since early May 8.
   
    Through the first 20 weeks of this year, central banks have now cut policy rates 19 times, or 10 percent of this year’s 190 monetary policy decisions by the 90 central banks followed by Central Bank News.
    But policy rates have also been raised 17 times, or 9.0 percent, a sign that that this year’s trend toward higher rates is still intact though it has weakened in recent weeks, just as investors’ optimism over the strength of the global economy has dampened.

LIST OF LAST WEEK’S CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS:

TABLE WITH LAST WEEK’S MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS:

COUNTRYMSCI     NEW RATE           OLD RATE        1 YEAR AGO
MOZAMBIQUE8.25%8.25%9.50%
ARMENIA7.25%7.50%8.00%
CROATIAFM5.00%5.00%6.25%
CHILEEM4.00%4.00%5.00%
PAKISTANFM10.00%10.00%9.50%
    This week (Week 21) five central banks will be deciding on monetary policy, including Nigeria, Iceland, Japan, Turkey and South Africa.
TABLE WITH THIS WEEK’S MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS:

COUNTRYMSCI             DATE CURRENT  RATE        1 YEAR AGO
NIGERIAFM20-May12.00%12.00%
ICELAND21-May6.00%6.00%
JAPANDM21-May                 N/A                 N/A
TURKEYEM22-May10.00%4.50%
SOUTH AFRICAEM22-May5.50%5.00%

Currency Speculators turned bullish on US Dollar bets, Euro drops to the bearish side

By CountingPips.com

cot-values

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators turned around their bets to become bullish on the US dollar last week.  The previous four weeks had seen speculators and traders on the bearish side.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $4.51 billion as of Tuesday May 13th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$6.54 billion from the -$2.03 billion total short position that was registered on May 6th, according to Reuters that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar aggregate bullish position is the highest USD level since March 11th when total bullish contracts equaled +$10.56 billion.  The bullish gain of $6.54 billion was the largest weekly increase since November 12th 2013 when positions jumped by $7.44 billion for the week.

Overall for the week against the other major currencies, speculators bet in favor the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso last week while there were weekly declines for the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the New Zealand dollar.

 

cot-standings

Notable changes:

  • Euro positions fell sharply over to the bearish side for the first time since February 2nd as the European Central Bank suggested they were open to easing monetary policy in June
  • British pound sterling positions fell for a 4th straight week after reaching a multi-year high on April 15th
  • Japanese Yen net positions added bearish positions after touching the lowest bearish level since October 15, 2013 the previous week
  • Swiss franc bullish positions declined by roughly half last week to +6,806 contracts
  • Australian dollar net positions rose to their best level since April 30th 2013 after turning bullish on April 8th
  • Canadian dollar positions, still bearish at -26,037 contracts, stood at the least bearish position since November 2013

 

* All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro. Please see charts and data below.




Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

eurofx

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/2014261439926356933523300-9938
04/15/201427072210625278564276884388
04/22/20142662591012047543025774-1914
04/29/20142715151022857655125734-40
05/06/201427701311067378122325516817
05/13/20142681428438386558-2175-34726



British Pound Sterling:

gbp

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/201422666791642451654647712905
04/15/20142266888747236874505984121
04/22/2014237055896924189247800-2798
04/29/2014236030859134167944234-3566
05/06/2014241264837944314840646-3588
05/13/2014230333711683941331755-8891



Japanese Yen:

jpy

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/201418181413340100802-874621176
04/15/20141648431435183067-6871618746
04/22/20141656741656483807-672431473
04/29/20141688201384684198-70352-3109
05/06/20141670932038181109-607289624
05/13/20141647071747182178-64707-3979



Swiss Franc:

chf

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/20144475219275794011335-2896
04/15/201448976239059839140662731
04/22/20144688821732770914023-43
04/29/20144742421960825713703-320
05/06/201455538251021191813184-519
05/13/20144528216951101456806-6378



Canadian Dollar:

cad

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/20141203362870463011-343072687
04/15/20141195252828863714-35426-1119
04/22/20141187072752962984-35455-29
04/29/20141235893009360388-302955160
05/06/20141222872804459644-31600-1305
05/13/20141216322698653023-260375563



Australian Dollar:

aud

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/201496887376303432033108190
04/15/201498933404633236680974787
04/22/20141076964954033170163708273
04/29/2014109934500193931310706-5664
05/06/201410493644805361688637-2069
05/13/20141073025014733020171278490



New Zealand Dollar:

nzd

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/201432898265216755197661286
04/15/2014331002667168241984781
04/22/20143257926056588120175328
04/29/20142985822979449918480-1695
05/06/201433025250274334206932213
05/13/20143093223806446619340-1353



Mexican Peso:

mxn

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/201413033170371138705650134717
04/15/2014131412710381680154237-2264
04/22/2014128932683291481853511-726
04/29/2014128100680731845549618-3893
05/06/2014146455676631977947884-1734
05/13/201414920986137175156862220738



*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.




Article by CountingPips.comForex Apps & News

US 10-Year Treasury Note Speculators sharply decreased their bearish positions

By CountingPips.com

Weekly CFTC Net Speculator Report




10yr

Large Speculators net bearish positions rise to a total of -129,409 contracts

10 Year Treasuries: Large futures market traders and speculators reduced their overall bearish bets in the 10-year treasury note futures last week to the lowest level in six weeks, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of the 10-year treasury notes, primarily traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -82,180 contracts in the data reported for May 13th. This was a change of +47,229 contracts from the previous week’s total of -129,409 net contracts that was recorded on May 6th.

The 10-Year Note non-commercial net bearish positions are now at their lowest level since April 1st when total net positions equaled -68,776 contracts.

Over the weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday May 6th to Tuesday May 13th, the yield on the 10-Year treasury note showed no change at the 2.61 level, according to data from the United States Treasury Department.

 

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Non-Commercial Positions

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsNet Large SpecsWeekly Change10 Year Yield
04/08/20142572114327159482333-155174-863982.69
04/15/20142497347344056506334-162278-71042.64
04/22/20142493544349474495339-145865164132.73
04/29/20142528687332918447343-114425314402.71
05/06/20142618485340698470107-129409-149842.61
05/13/20142735107421083503263-82180472292.61



*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).




Article by CountingPips.comForex Trading Apps

 

 

 

VIX Futures Speculators raised bearish positions to highest since September in COT data

By CountingPips.com

Weekly CFTC Net Speculator VIX Report




vix


VIX Futures Contracts: Large traders and speculators added to their overall bearish bets in the VIX futures market last week for a third straight week and to the highest level since September, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released on Friday.

The VIX non-commercial futures contracts, comprising of large speculator and hedge fund positions, totaled a net bearish position of -82,686 contracts in the data reported for May 13th. This was a change of -19,220 contracts from the previous week’s total of -63,466 net contracts that was registered on May 6th.

The third straight weekly increase in bearish positions brings overall net contracts to the highest bearish level since September 17th 2013 when net positions stood at a level of -91,017 contracts.

Meanwhile, the VIX index over the same reporting time-frame last week edged lower from a 13.80 reading on Tuesday May 6th to a 12.13 reading on Tuesday May 13th, according to the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index.

 

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsNet Non-CommercialsWeekly ChangeVIX Score
04/08/2014359952105096136842-31746-117314.89
04/15/201436888796296132242-35946-420015.61
04/22/2014362130106598140655-34057188913.19
04/29/2014365215110843156329-45486-1142913.71
05/06/2014391848104252167718-63466-1798013.80
05/13/2014419669111532194218-82686-1922012.13

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).




Article by CountingPips.comForex Apps & Analysis

 

 

 

Crude Oil Speculators added to net bullish positions last week

By CountingPips.com

Weekly CFTC Net Speculator Crude Oil Report

crudeoil

CRUDE OIL: Large futures market traders and speculators raised their overall bullish bets in crude oil futures last week after declines the previous two weeks, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial contracts of crude oil futures, primarily traded by large speculators and hedge funds, rose to a total net position of +387,739 contracts in the data reported for May 13th. This was a change of +4,646 contracts from the previous week’s total of +383,093 net contracts for the data reported through May 6th.

Last week’s modest increase brings non-commercial net positions back from the lowest level since February 11th when net positions totaled +382,334 contracts.

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday May 6th to Tuesday May 13th, the crude oil price gained from $99.81 to $101.86 per barrel, according to Nymex futures price data from investing.com. Brent crude prices, meanwhile, also showed a rise from $107.12 to $108.67 per barrel from Tuesday May 6th to Tuesday May 13th, according to prices from investing.com.

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Non-Commercial Positions

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsNet Non-CommercialsWeekly ChangeOil Price
04/08/201416554725120351122483997878004102.33
04/15/201416742765234901139394095519764103.78
04/22/20141619737517023106898410125574101.92
04/29/20141651521522018119691402327-7798100.58
05/06/20141638412492901109808383093-1923499.81
05/13/201416274034950801073413877394646101.86

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.comForex Trading News

 

 

 

Gold Speculators trim bullish bets following 3 weeks of rises

By CountingPips.com

Weekly CFTC Net Speculator Gold Report

gold

GOLD: Futures market traders and large speculators decreased their net bullish bets in the gold futures market last week after traders had raised their bullish positions for the previous three weeks, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Comex gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of +91,634 contracts in the data reported through May 13th. This was a change of -6,322 contracts from the previous week’s total of +97,956 net contracts that was registered on May 6th.

The gold non-commercial net positions stood at the highest level since April 1st before last week’s decrease.

Over the weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday May 6th to Tuesday May 13th, the gold price declined from $1,307.60 to $1,295.20 per ounce, according to gold futures price data from investing.com.

 

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Non-Commercial Positions

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsNet Non-CommercialsWeekly ChangeGold Price
04/08/20143654001496936109488599-115461310.10
04/15/20143695771474326814079292-93071302.90
04/22/2014372593146880650478183325411284.90
04/29/2014378092147769625428522733941296.20
05/06/20144047001609826302697956127291307.60
05/13/20143970291571766554291634-63221295.20

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.comForex Trading Apps

 

 

 

 

 

Thoughts from the Frontline: Special Updates from the Strategic Investment Conference: Day 1

By Worth Wray

Good morning from sunny San Diego, California!

As the sun rises on the second day of the Strategic Investment Conference, I am absolutely blown away. John and Altegris put on an amazing show, and this is simply unlike any investment conference I have ever attended.

Let me explain…

In my experience, these industry events are usually more about networking than content. I go to investment conferences in hopes of expanding my thinking and challenging my preconceived ideas about the world… but all too often I find myself sitting in half-empty auditoriums listening to rock-star economists who are resting comfortably on their laurels rather than bringing their A-games.

At your average conference, over the course of several days and several dozen presentations, I usually expect to hear only a handful of truly original ideas… but not here. Here, I can hardly keep up.

Instead of skipping sessions to explore the resort or lounge by the pool, here everyone stays in the room. It’s so refreshing to see 650 people guarding their seats, hanging on every word, and drinking from a fire hose of transformational ideas.

Day 1 started off with the king of modern-day economists, David Rosenberg, who goes on ruffling a lot of feathers. Rather than obsessing over whether the state of the global economy is good or bad, Dave challenged us to see beyond the deflationary headwinds and focus on how things are changing at the margin. Markets move as things get better or worse; and at the margin, Dave argues, inflation pressures are building. I know this sounds odd to a lot of us who are still worried about deflation; but Dave notes that out of 140MM workers in the large, insulated US economy, roughly 40MM higher-skilled workers have the bargaining power to push wages higher and turn the inflationary dial… even as low- and medium-skilled workers see their wages decline.

Next up, we had an epic debate between Bloomberg Senior Economist Rich Yamarone and Jefferies Chief Market Strategist, David Zervos. Rich is worried that after six years of fragile growth, the US economy is prone to recession and skating on very line ice. He argues that the middle class is getting hollowed out, because no positive wage pressure can be exerted by the vast majority of Americans. More people are being forced to take multiple jobs to make ends meet, in part because the Affordable Care Act is changing the way businesses employ nonessential workers.

With his thumb on the pulse of the real economy through his Orange Book research, Yamarone gives us his top five real-world indicators, which tell a story very different from the official macro data. Meanwhile, in high spirits and with a powerful faith in central banks, Zervos exhorts us to be lovers, not haters. Deflation cannot take hold, he asserts, as long as the Federal Reserve is pouring money into the system. Today, sitting in low-volatility cash is more dangerous than being in higher-volatility stocks, he argues. David laid out two choices and encouraged the crowd to pick a path.

Then we moved on to a comprehensive look at the global economy as the always brilliant Grant Williams and Jonathan Tepper took the stage to share their ideas about China, Japan, Europe, and other markets. Jonathan argued that low volatility and tight European credit spreads are not necessarily signs of lasting recovery but rather the sort of irrational calm that always comes before a crisis. Expanding on Jonathan’s point, Grant warned that if and when this bubble of complacency pops, the impact will shake the world. And then he explained how sudden shifts in confidence in China and Japan could tip off the next global panic.Patrick Cox, who writes Mauldin Economics’ Transformational Technology Alert, ran(!) us through a jaw-dropping, hugely inspiring PowerPoint show and commentary, one of the highlights of which was his prediction that the US energy boom will enable the widespread adoption of robotics here, which will reverse 40+ years of manufacturing outsourcing.

We heard from several other excellent speakers during the day, including Gary Shilling, and Vice Admiral Robert Harward… a great American who once commanded the Navy SEALS and who gave us all hope that with the support of the greatest warriors in human history, America’s best days lie ahead.

There’s lots more I could share with you about yesterday’s developments, but it’s time to hit the send button. John Mauldin is about to take the stage with one of the most powerful presentations I have ever seen, and I don’t want to miss a second. We have been working on this speech for more than six weeks, and I am inspired by his ability to find hope in the midst of debt-related worries and to look into and through the macro chaos to give us a profoundly positive vision of the future.

Thankfully, I have not had to take copious notes, because there’s no way the pace of this event would allow me to keep up with all the information coming at me.  To fill in the blanks, I’ll be able to refer to the recordings of all the authorized presentations from the event when my MP3/CD Audio Set arrives in a few weeks.  If you couldn’t make it to SIC but want to tune in to the insights shared by 20 of the world’s top independent thinkers, you can order the audio set here today at our discounted pre-event price. Based on what I’ve already experienced at the conference, I can tell you the SIC Audio Set will be loaded with invaluable information and worth every penny.

Thanks again for your support, and I hope you can join us next year!


Worth Wray
Chief Strategist, Mauldin Companies

 

 

 

How to Manage a Crisis… Before It Happens

By Dennis Miller, millersmoney.com

My wife Jo and I live in Central Florida, and having ridden out a few hurricanes in our lives, we’re as well prepared as we can be for emergencies. We have, among other things, a generator, food, batteries, candles, and a water purification kit.

My wife and I visited Punta Gorda, FL, after the town suffered severe hurricane damage in 2004. After driving one block to the grocery store, we raced out of there with burning eyes and handkerchiefs covering our noses and mouths. We immediately drove back to the motel, changed our clothes, and put what we were wearing in a plastic bag. We’d never seen anything like that before, and it left quite an impression.

Realistically, the chance of a hurricane doing that kind of damage to us is small—we’re over 50 miles inland from both coasts and 70 feet above sea level. However, in 2004, the eye of three hurricanes passed right over our little town for the first time in recorded history, so even if the probability is less than 1%, the fallout would be so bad that we prepare anyway.

What about a financial catastrophe? How well prepared do you need to be?

Folks near my age have lived through a few bubbles and the subsequent crashes and recoveries. Though we never experienced “the Big One” as our parents did in the 1930s, which was so bad that it shaped the attitudes and values of a couple of generations.

In a full-blown financial crisis, your material world collapses. It might come on the heels of medical problems and the resulting high bills and lost income, or it might come in tandem with runaway inflation or a political meltdown.

Financial Preparation

A full-blown financial crisis often develops so stealthily that only the most observant people will know what hit them, and it typically affects everyone. Those who prepared well are likely to fare much better and avoid the catastrophic consequences, which brings us to core holdings.

Core holdings are, quite literally, survival insurance. They are assets we sock away and hope we never have to sell. They should make up 10% of your overall net worth and be diversified in form and location.

In light of the warning signs that we see in the economy and the stock market, now is a good time to review your own core holdings.

What types of investments should be in that category depends on the type of risk you’re trying to protect against.

Protecting Against Inflation

Start with precious metals—gold and silver, in particular. I recommend starting with “junk silver,” which you should be able to buy locally. Then add gold, silver, and platinum bullion coins. One of the best ways to buy competitively is to go to a coin show. You will find several dealers displaying their wares and can quickly determine the market price.

You can also buy bullion from reputable dealers online, and as you increase your holdings, consider holding some metal internationally. (For the best ways to invest in gold, see the free special report, The 2014 Gold Investor’s Guide.

Don’t confuse these holdings with exchange-traded funds like GLD. Those are not core holdings. They are paper investments purchased with the intention of selling them for a profit at a later date. While they may (or may not) move consistently with metal prices, your paper is not redeemable for metal. You may want to own these in your portfolio just like any other asset you think will go up in value.

Your core holdings, however, need not be limited to metals. We hold foreign-currency-denominated CDs from EverBank that are FDIC-insured in ours. While their yield is currently low, we hold them as a hedge against inflation.

When the US dollar buys less, certain foreign currencies increase in value and will buy more. By way of example, I have held Swiss francs for years. They used to be worth $0.80 to the dollar; now they are worth more than $1.10.

Farmland is another great hedge against inflation. It’s a valuable asset and is in limited supply. There’s no new land growing in Kansas.

Protecting Against Confiscation

Historically, governments have resorted to extreme measures like confiscation when their debt load gets out of hand. Confiscation can take more than one form.

In 1933, President Roosevelt, by Executive Order 6102, made it illegal to own gold. It required everyone to deliver all of their gold coins, bullion, and certificates to the Federal Reserve, in exchange for $20.67 per ounce. Once people had surrendered their gold, the government raised its official price from $20.67 to $35 per ounce. Does that mean gold went up in value overnight? No, the value of the dollar went down.

A second form of confiscation is taxes, sometimes marketed as “emergency taxes.” A government that is spending more than it takes in will eventually have its day of reckoning. Fearing a collapse, they’ll resort to extreme measures. I wrote about the confiscation in Cyprus last year, and we are seeing similar things happening in Argentina. Who are the targets? Anyone with money.

While no one can predict for sure what our government will do, prudent investors diversify some of their investment capital offshore. The example of Cyprus has shown that those who moved some of their money offshore were spared. Once the government shut the currency window, however, it was too late for the others.

How Bad Could Things Get?

I have no idea. When I attended the 2011 Casey Fall Summit, three of the speakers described what it was like to live through hyperinflation. Argentina has already confiscated much of its citizens’ retirement plans, forcing them to invest in government debt.

The speaker from Yugoslavia shared the following slide showing the magnitude of hyperinflation in his country:

Of course we can’t say for sure that hyperinflation will or will not happen in the United States. But the Federal Reserve had been in business for 95 years and had $800 billion on its balance sheet as recently as 2007. Now it has $4 trillion, which is somewhere between a 400- and 500-year money supply. The minute the world loses confidence in the dollar or it loses its status as the world’s reserve currency, the decline in purchasing power could be horrendous.

Even if the probability of hyperinflation is tiny, remember that your biological clock is ticking. You may be close to leaving the workforce or already out. The adverse consequences of high inflation, hyperinflation (which are two different conditions), and/or outright government confiscation of wealth are so catastrophic that an unprepared investor may never be able to recover. That could mean bunking in your adult child’s guest room instead of doing the million fun things you’d planned for retirement.

It’s time to make sure your core holdings are where they need to be, just in case. Jo and I review our financial holdings each year at tax time. That reminds me… We store our emergency food and mark the expiration date on the cases. About a month before expiration, we load the cases in the van and take them to the local food bank, then head to Sam’s Club to reload.

Hurricane season will be here before you know it. It’s time to check your inventory.

There are countless ways to protect yourself from a financial crisis—and only a few are mentioned here. The Miller’s Money team is constantly on the lookout for the best ways to protect and grow your nest egg. Sign up for our free e-letter, Miller’s Money Weekly, today.

 

The article How to Manage a Crisis… Before It Happens was originally published at millersmoney.com.

Central Bank News Link List – May 17, 2014 – Turkey inflation to peak soon, central bank’s Basci says

By CentralBankNews.info

Here’s today’s Central Bank News’ link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news.