InvestMacro Forex News

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Exxon recently reached the resistance level 102.00 that was set as the buy target in our latest report for this company. The price has been rising sharply in the last few days inside the minute subwave (iii) of the extended minor upward impulse wave 3 belonging to the longer-term intermediate impulse wave (3) from last October.

The price just reversed down from 102.00 (which earlier created the top of the minor wave impulse 1 in December). If Exxon breaks above 102.00 – it can rise to the next buy target at 104.00.

The post HY MARKETS News: Stocks Report: Exxon Mobil Corporation appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

Futures for copper fell on Friday as it heads for its biggest weekly drop since March, as the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for China’s manufacturing sector grew lower than forecasted and traders waits for the US jobs report due later in the day.

Futures for the metal for the delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange edged 0.4% lower to $6,618.50 a metric ton at the time of writing. The metal has lost 10% since the year started and dropped by 2.2% this week.

China’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 50.4 in April, slightly up from the previous reading of 50.3 seen in March but still lower than analysts’ forecasts of 50.5.

“This China PMI data is kind of disappointing,” Helen Lau, a commodity analyst at UOB Kay Hian Ltd., said. “To make the copper price rebound, we really need better-than-expected numbers.”

US GDP

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) concluded its two-day policy meeting by reducing its monthly asset purchases by an additional $10 billion to $45 billion on Wednesday, overlooking the US weak first-quarter performance. The US central bank said the world’s largest economy’s growth is at a stable path.

Reports from the Commerce Department in Washington showed that the US gross domestic product expanded by 0.1% at an annual rate from January to March, compared to the 2.6% rise seen in the previous quarter.

US Jobs report

Traders will be focusing on the release of the US non-farm payrolls reports for April, which is expected to be released later in the day with forecasts of 218,000 new jobs added to the jobs market in April.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

Stocks – Asia

Asian stocks were seen trading mixed on the last day of the trading week as investors focus on the release of the US non-farm payrolls for April, due later in the day.

In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 index dropped 0.19% lower closing the session at 14,4457.51, while Tokyo’s broader Topix index edged 0.02% higher at 1,182.48.

Japan’s industrial company, IHI Corporation saw the most gains on the Nikkei, coming in at 5.15% while Dowa Holdings lost 4.10%.

Japan’s household spending climbed 7.2% in March on a year-on-year basis, compared to analysts forecast of a 1.7% growth in consumption, reports revealed on Friday.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.69% trading at 22,287 at the time of writing, while the mainland Chinese Shanghai Composite was closed for a public holiday.

In China, the nation’s largest coal miners, China Shenhua climbed 2.38% higher, while China Unicom lost 4.20%.

China’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 50.4 in April, slightly up from the previous reading of 50.3 seen in March but still lower than analysts’ forecasts of 50.5.

Jobs report

Traders will be focusing on the release of the US non-farm payrolls reports for April, with analysts expecting to see 218,000 new jobs added to the jobs market in April, while unemployment is expected to come in at 6.6% from 6.7%.

Meanwhile, jobs data from the eurozone is expected to show that the unemployment rate remained unchanged in March, standing at 11.9%.

Stocks – Europe

Stocks in Europe were seen falling on Friday, with the Euro Stoxx index falling 0.37% lower to 3,186.70 at the time of writing, while the German DAX edged 0.14% lower to 9,590.54. At the same time the French CAC 40 lost 0.35% to 4,471.67 and the UK benchmark FTSE 100 declined 0.01% to 6,805.50.

Final PMIs

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Spain’s manufacturing sector was at 52.7 points in April, compared to the previous reading of 52.8 points seen in March and down from analysts forecast of a 53.4 rise, reports from Markit Economic showed.

Analysts are forecasting France to post a drop of 50.9 in April, down from the 52.1 reported in March. While the eurozone as a whole is expected to have risen to 53.3 in April, slightly picking up from March’s reading of 53.

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Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for May 2^nd, 2014

DJIA Index

Index is still moving close to its historic maximums. Earlier, after completing double three pattern inside wave [2], Index formed initial impulse inside wave [1]. Possibly, market has already completed correction inside the second wave and may continue moving upwards.

As we can see at the H1 chart, Index finished zigzag pattern inside wave (2). On minor wave level, price formed bullish impulse inside wave 1. In the near term, instrument is expected to move upwards and form extension inside wave 3.

Crude Oil

Oil continues falling down inside the third wave. Earlier price formed bearish impulse inside wave 1 and then completed wave 2. In the near term, instrument is expected to continue falling down and break minimum of the first wave.

More detailed wave structure is shown on H1 chart. After finishing double zigzag pattern inside wave 2, Oil formed descending impulse inside wave [1]. It looks like right now instrument is forming extension inside wave [3]. Price may reach new minimum during the day.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for May 2^nd, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from level of 50% (1.3788) several times, Eurodollar started growing up. Closest target for bulls is the group of fibo levels at 1.3955. In the future, price is expected to complete local correction and then break latest maximums.

As we can see at H1 chart, target of current correction is at level of 38.2% (1.3844). Possibly, market may rebound from this level inside temporary fibo-zone. If pair does rebound from this level, I’m planning to increase my long position.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc is trying to start new descending movement. Earlier price rebounded from correctional level of 50%. Probably, bears’ next target is the group of fibo levels at 0.8695.

As we can see at H1 chart, target of current local correction is at level of 38.2% (0.8807). According to analysis of temporary fibo-zones, this correction may complete during the day. Intermediate target for bears is the group of fibo levels at 0.8755.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

GBPJPY: Sets Up For Further Recovery

GBPJPY – With the cross reversing its Wednesday losses on Thursday to close higher, further upside is now envisaged. In such a case, resistance comes in at the 173.13 level where a break will open the door for additional gains towards the 174.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 174.84 level and then the 175.50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support is located at the 171.93 level where a break will aim at the 170.00 level followed by the 169.49 level. A cut through here if seen will target the 168.63 level and then the 168.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside in the long term.

Article by http://www.fxtechstrategy.com/daily-technical-strategist-on-gbpjpy-new-8

By MoneyMorning.com.au

I don’t buy into superstitions.

I have no problem with Friday the 13th. You won’t find a rabbit’s foot hanging from my computer screen. My family even owned a black cat when I was a kid.

I just don’t see any supernatural forces at work there.

I think it goes back to my university training in physics.

As a physicist, I was trained to rigorously apply the scientific method. That means I let reality speak for itself.

You support a theory when reality confirms its predictions…but when those predictions prove to be wrong, you tear that theory down.

That’s not only the secret to success in experimental physics. It’s also a solid basis for investing.

But investors are only human. We’re hardwired to look for patterns, even when none exist.

Especially at this time of year, you might have fallen into the trap of trading superstitiously.

Here’s my advice about how to avoid that trap…

‘Sell in May and go away,’ is one of the stock market’s great persisting superstitions.

Some punters believe this saying is steeped in logic because it comes with a colourful old story. Here’s where it comes from.

Once upon a time, it’s said that the entire London financial district enjoyed a leisurely European summer. They were more focused on sporting events than their clients’ portfolios.

That meant there were fewer people buying and selling shares. That means higher levels of volatility. And with the buyers on holiday, it’s said that gravity would pull the stock market down over the warmer months.

This situation would last until the end of the northern summer in September.

To be precise, the second half of the saying is ‘come back on St Leger’s Day.’ The St Leger Stakes is the oldest of England’s five horseracing classics and is the last to be run.

With the suntanned stockbrokers back in their offices, stocks would resume a smoother upwards ride each year in September.

Or so the story goes.

Look, I can vouch for the fact that the European trading floors go quiet over summer. When I sold US equities in London, on some summer days you could almost hear a pin drop.

But the facts simply don’t support this idea that stocks always go down in May.

Don’t buy or sell blindly

‘Sell in May’ advocates usually point to the last few years as evidence that their theory is valid.

And to be fair, in May of each year from 2010 to 2013, Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index fell by -7.86%, -2.38%, -7.29% and -5.10%.

A blindly superstitious May seller would feel vindicated.

But I don’t buy or sell blindly.

I’m either in the market or out of it, based on the underlying fundamentals.

And there’s a fundamental reason for each shaky May in the past four years.

May 2010, if you remember, brought the ‘flash crash’ and a deeply unpredictable Greek debt crisis.

2011 saw a relatively benign May, but the European debt situation was still stressing out global investors that month.

May 2012 saw a sharp sell-off of emerging markets as political upheaval threatened the Greek bailout. On top of that, the Spanish conglomerate Bankia sought its own rescue.

And last May, then US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke dropped his first hints that the Fed was thinking about slowing down its money printing presses.

But hey, let’s extend the retrospect by an extra year. If you’d chosen to sit out the six months from May 2009, you would have cost yourself almost 30% upside in the Australian, US and European stock markets. That was a huge result for large-cap stocks.

Here’s my point: when markets go up or down, there’s generally a fundamental reason that underpins the move.

Don’t bank on a coin flip

Stock markets are massively more sophisticated now than they were 100, 50 or even 20 years ago.

The days of lazy brokers nicking off to the polo and constraining the progress of an entire market are long gone.

So the colourful old story I told you earlier clearly has no basis as a reliable investment strategy.
There have been many, many years when “sell in May” hasn’t worked out.

And looking back over a 30-year period, it becomes a real flip of the coin. You can’t bank on that.

The statistics just don’t present a strong enough case for it.

I’m not trying to tell you that stocks always go up. I’m just saying there’s no room for emotion or superstition in the stock market.

When smarter investors catch wind of irrational behaviour, they exploit it ruthlessly. Don’t get sucked in.

Advice to profit

Here’s a strategy that outperforms ‘sell in May’, ‘buy before Halloween’ or any number of other bogus investment schemes.

Are you ready for it?

Here it is: buy stocks when they look undervalued relative to their potential. Then hold them long-term.

Yes, stocks have enjoyed a good rally over the past nine months. But you can still capture plenty of upside by investing in certain carefully selected companies.

Sometimes a stock’s story can take a while to play out. To benefit from the capital appreciation when catalysts ignite, you have to be in the market.

And market catalysts, be they macroeconomic or stock-specific, don’t wait for a calendar date.

Here’s the valuable point that punters who ‘sell in May’ ignore.

When you own dividend-paying stocks, you get paid to stay in the market and wait for those catalysts.

Dividends are an important component of total stock returns, especially here in Australia.

That’s even the case for some small-cap stocks.

Not every small-cap pays a dividend. But when they do, I look for companies that have a real prospect of raising that dividend, and also scream ‘buy me’ on a valuation basis.

I call those stocks ‘Turbo Caps’.

And there’s a few belters in that group among the exciting speculations on the Australian Small-Cap Investigator buy list.

If you want to generate real wealth through the stock market, you can’t get there by following kooky sayings and folk tales.

You get there by buying stocks for less than they’re worth…and holding them for the long term.

Cheers,
Tim Dohrmann+
Small-Cap Analyst, Australian Small-Cap Investigator

From the Archives…

Investing in Technology — the Cheat’s Guide
26-04-14 – Shae Smith

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

Source: Peter Byrne of The Life Sciences Report (5/1/14)

http://www.thelifesciencesreport.com/pub/na/x-ray-vision-or-due-diligence-how-seethruequity-analysts-find-hidden-small-cap-biotech-plays

SeeThruEquity stays an arm’s length away from the small biotech firms it analyzes for investors, but gets intimate enough to discover firms that hold promise. In this interview with The Life Sciences Report, senior analyst Brandon Primack and the firm’s CEO, Ajay Tandon, explain why they find this handful of small biotechs intriguing.

The Life Sciences Report: SeeThruEquity specializes in analyzing companies with capitalizations under $1 billion ($1B). What is special about the small-cap life sciences sector?

Ajay Tandon: We cover 66 small-cap and micro-cap companies across a variety of sectors, the majority of which fall into the healthcare, life sciences and technology spaces. From our perspective, the past year was very hot for investors in this range of stocks—and also for the investment banks raising capital for the life sciences sector.

TLSR: Do you invest in the companies that you analyze?

Brandon Primack: We do not do any banking or trading in the firms that we research.

AT: Our research is completely unbiased, and we do not charge companies for it. We do host investor conferences on a regular basis. We have a conference coming up on May 28 in New York City. A lot of life sciences companies will be represented, among other small-cap sectors.

TLSR: What drives the rates of return for biotech these days?

BP: We look for catalyst-driven events. There are names in our research universe from which we expect to hear milestone news in the next few months: DelMar Pharmaceuticals Inc. (DMPI:OTCQB),Cynapsus Therapeutics Inc. (CYNAF:OTCQX; CTH:TSX.V) and Pressure BioSciences Inc. (PBIO:OTCQB). The milestone events can be truly transformative—producing as much as a 100% return on these companies.

TLSR: What is the potential milestone for Cynapsus Therapeutics?

BP: Cynapsus is reformulating apomorphine, which is the only approved drug for Parkinson’s patients experiencing off-motor symptoms. Since apomorphine was approved as a treatment many years ago, we assign the reformulation a high probability of success.

Apomorphine is for patients with impaired motor function who have trouble taking their medicines. Cynapsus’ reformulation of the vital drug is in a thin-strip sublingual application (APL-130277). The existing drug is sold worldwide as Apokyn (apomorphine hydrochloride injection; US WorldMeds [private]). It is administered as an injectable—a cumbersome process, often involving 21 steps, making it difficult to access for patients experiencing impaired motor function. Cynapsus’ film strip for apomorphine is simply placed under the tongue, making it a tremendous leap forward in technology.

Cynapsus has just released data from a dose escalation study at 25 milligrams (25 mg). The topline data is positive, meaning that when the dose went from 15 mg to 25 mg, the amount of drug in the bloodstream two hours later was significantly increased. Another element that we like is that worldwide sales of apomorphine are in the $60–70 million ($60–70M) range. If the reformulation is successful, the expanded market potential could be 10 times that.

Cynapsus has laid out a concrete drug-testing roadmap, including bioequivalence and safety studies, culminating in a new drug application filing. It finished last year with $2.29M in cash. It has outlined spending needs of $18–20M for the next two years.

TLSR: How is it planning to capitalize that need?

BP: The climate for raising money for this company is obviously robust. When we initiated on Cynapsus around Thanksgiving, it was a $0.38/share stock. After it rose to $1.40/share, some warrants were exercised. When the company releases its full study data for apomorphine during the next month or so, we expect the share price will respond positively.

TLSR: Is the firm in debt?

BP: It has no debt. It had converted some debt to equity in H2/13, so additional capital will flow from equity raises. The market cap is about $21M. Our price target is $1.54/share.

TLSR: Do you have any firms specializing in developing orphan drugs in cancer research?

BP: We have initiated research on DelMar Pharmaceuticals—a name that is receiving a lot of media attention. It is working on a great drug, VAL-083, for glioblastoma multiforme, the most common and aggressive form of brain cancer.

What we find attractive is that this drug is also currently approved, in China for lung cancer. It was studied extensively many years ago by the National Cancer Institute (NCI). For whatever reason, the drug fell by the wayside as other therapies emerged and received more funding and more attention. The drug has already been tested against current standards of care.

TLSR: What is the story in China?

BP: In China, DelMar is looking for marketing partners and a strong marketing voice. It has contracted with Guangxi Wuzhou Pharmaceutical Co. (600252:SS) to put more research dollars into the Chinese lung cancer product. A round of new studies is being paid for by the Chinese firm. This deal represents no-cost, complete upside for DelMar as it both expands Chinese sales and moves through the U.S. regulatory process.

TLSR: How can a drug that works in brain cancer be used for lung cancer?

BP: VAL-083 was originally synthesized and studied in the 1960s. It is a novel alkylating agent, a first-in-class, small molecule therapeutic, and not an analog or derivative of other small molecule chemotherapeutics. It is a commonly used class of drugs. It works by binding to DNA and interfering with normal DNA replication processes within the cancer cells, thus preventing the cell from making the proteins necessary for survival and growth. In the ’60s, the drug was assessed in multiple clinical studies by the NCI as a treatment against various cancers. When a drug is effective against a certain type of tumor or cancer, it makes sense to test it against other types of cancer. Positive results in DelMar’s brain cancer studies compelled the firm to pursue further studies in brain cancer, and longer term the company hopes to examine the drug’s efficacy in lung cancer, especially since VAL-083 is already approved for lung cancer therapy in China. For an early-stage biotech, DelMar is an attractive dual-track investment thesis.

TLSR: How has DelMar’s stock been performing?

BP: When we initiated on DelMar in January, the stock was $1/share. It now trades at about the same price.

It’s important to note that the company is doing a dose escalation study, administering VAL-083 in higher dosages than were used in the old NCI studies. It is breaking new ground and reporting positive topline data. DelMar plans to release a full report soon. This kind of major milestone event can take a probability-adjusted estimation of approval from a 10 to a 30 to a 70, especially in an orphan drug category where there is a significant unmet need—where patients just are not living very long on the standard of care.

TLSR: Do you have a target price for this stock?

BP: Our target price on DelMar is $4.53/share.

TLSR: That’s a good jump.

AT: Two weeks ago, New York City-based investment bank Maxim Group LLC initiated coverage on DelMar. The company is increasingly visible, which is a positive sign that an increase in coverage by other investment banks is around the bend.

TLSR: Moving on to the third company you mentioned: Investors are hearing about a novel technology called “pressure cycling.” What is pressure cycling and what potential does it carry in terms of researching biomolecular interactions?

BP: Pressure BioSciences came up with a proprietary, revolutionary technology in biological sample preparation. Its unique machinery puts cells through alternating cycles of high levels of hydrostatic pressure to extract information. The process looks for biomarkers that indicate the presence or absence of a disease condition. There are numerous markets for this machine; the system has applications that compare to those currently used with mass spectrographers, forensics and DNA detection. It is also a useful technique for histology—analyzing biopsies.

Most laboratories use a variety of methods to analyze cells, from old-fashioned mortars and pestles to modern heat treatments. Pressure Bio’s technology is a next-generation leap. And thousands of labs around the world can use it. Pressure Bio has just released its Barocycler HUB880 High Pressure Generator, which is a new, higher-pressure machine that will allow high utilization labs to process a significantly greater number of samples than they can now. The older machines operate at 35,000 pounds per square inch (35,000 psi). The new version goes up to 100,000 psi. Pressure Bio has existing relationships with 150 of the top labs in the country and it reported that the first HUB880 has been sold and shipped to the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). And the company is on track to release what it calls a high-throughput system. Sales growth of the machine will clearly be accelerated by the H1/14 release of the high-throughput equipment.

TLSR: How is Pressure BioSciences’ stock performing?

BP: We initiated on Pressure Bio in late October 2013, at $0.23/share. It is now trading at about $0.46/share. It spiked to $0.70/share in late March, after news of its next-generation technology was released. Like many biotechs, its shares get a little hot, and then return to Planet Earth. But at the end of 2013, Pressure Bio only had $400 thousand ($400K) in debt. It had expected to raise $1.5M in a private placement. It actually raised $2.9M in February, and has extended the opportunity. We do not yet have final numbers but raising a private placement from $630K in December to $1.5M in January to $2.9M in February speaks to a strong capital raising environment.

TLSR: Let’s move on to cardiovascular technologies. Any notable successes there?

BP: We are highlighting AtheroNova Inc. (AHRO:OTCQB). It has a novel compound called AHRO-001. To quote the firm, the new drug will “change the paradigm in cardiovascular disease management.”

The company’s intellectual property revolves around naturally occurring bile acids, which break down lipids for absorption in the body. There are numerous cardiovascular standards of care, the most popular being the statin regime, of course. But none of these standards of care deal with plaque regression, which reduces the amount of plaque buildup in the arteries. And that is precisely what AtheroNova believes to be the paradigm shift offered by its compound: the regression of coronary plaque. This new drug is a tremendous opportunity because, as we know, statins are the largest-selling drug category of all time. AtheroNova believes that AHRO-001 is an alternative therapy to statins, and possibly an add-on to statins. Layer this new treatment onto the whole population, and we are talking about multiple billions of dollars a year.

TLSR: Does AHRO-001 have any side effects?

BP: Because bile acids are naturally occurring chemicals in the body, the side effect profile is mild. The drug increases the quantity of the bile acid.

TLSR: Are study results in?

BP: AtheroNova released data last summer. The study was conducted at UCLA. Mice were given an eight-week diet of Western food and placed in a control group where they were given AHRO-001 for 15 weeks. The study group that received AHRO-001 had 95% less innominate arterial plaque than the control group. The drug decreases calorie absorption while improving the ability of high-density lipoproteins (HDLs) to mediate cholesterol efflux. Again, the current standard of care with statins doesn’t address this.

TLSR: Does AtheroNova have partners?

BP: AtheroNova has a promising research collaboration agreement with Maxwell Biotech Venture Fund, which the company calls “Russia’s premier biotech venture capital firm.” In 2011, Maxwell agreed to commit $4M to fund Phase 1 and Phase 2 studies in Russia. In Russia, the approval process is less onerous than in the U.S. The Russian studies will give AtheroNova significant insight into the side effects and the most effective dosages for AHRO-001. The company will use that knowledge to detail a framework for its own U.S. trials. At the end of February, the firm released topline data. We have very little information as of yet, but the company revealed, “The safety data is unequivocally encouraging, yielding valuable information about the tolerability of the drug.”

TLSR: How has AtheroNova stock been performing?

BP: We initiated coverage in January at $0.42/share with a $1.03/share price target. Right now, the stock is at $0.36/share. It spiked in the beginning of March to $0.51/share, and has traded on the flat line since.

TLSR: Do you view the companies we have talked about as acquisition candidates, or as companies that are going to make it on their own?

BP: Pressure Bio has a go-it-alone plan. Due to its next-generation technology in equipment and consumables, it might be a very attractive candidate.

Cynapsus plans to do a trade sale or licensing—making it a very attractive candidate, too. Once we see some more study data from Cynapsus during the next 12 months, we will know more.

We also cover Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP:NASDAQ). We initiated on it last summer at around $4/share. It is reformulating cyclobenzaprine, a pain drug for fibromyalgia. At $4, the firm was preparing for its Phase 2 trial. It uplisted to NASDAQ. ROTH Capital Partners picked it up. The stock attracted significant interest, significant capital. It closed a $43M capital raise in January. Just six months ago, Tonix was considering a licensing agreement in 2015. Now, it has the money now to do its own Phase 2 and its own Phase 3 studies. It has accelerated the pipeline. With access to capital, the story can change quite rapidly for a biotech.

Maybe it is a chicken-and-egg scenario: Does the good news make it easier to raise your valuation, making you more resistant to being acquired? Or does the good news make a company more likely to want to acquire you?

TLSR: Excellent interview, gentlemen. Thanks.

Ajay Tandon brings more than 15 years of experience in the financial service industry, and considerable experience advising, structuring transactions and raising capital for small-cap public and private enterprises to his role as chief executive officer and director of research at SeeThruEquity. Tandon cofounded Emissary Capital, a private investment firm focused on micro-cap investment banking. Previously, Tandon served as vice president of equity capital markets at Maxim Group LLC, where he led the firm’s equity syndicate and origination efforts with respect to PIPEs, registered IPOs and follow-on offerings. Prior to his role at Maxim, Tandon served as an executive for v, an analytics platform used by global and regional investment banks worldwide to help optimize performance and improve competitiveness. Tandon began his career in financial services as a management consultant with IBM Global Services, and earned his bachelor’s degree from Cornell University.

Brandon Primack, senior equity research analyst with SeeThruEquity, has more than 15 years of experience in the asset management business with a focus on equity research and portfolio management. Prior to joining SeeThruEquity, Primack founded Primack Capital LLC, where he ran a structured derivative product and provided asset allocation consulting services to high net-worth individuals. Prior to that, Primack spent seven years at Allianz Global Investors, where he served as a senior equity research analyst covering healthcare and industrials for large- and mid-cap growth-oriented products. He also served as a quantitative analyst in Allianz’s Structured Product Group, which focused on enhanced derivative products. Primack received his master’s degree in business administration (finance) from New York University’s Stern School of Business, and his bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Michigan. He has been a CFA charterholder since 2004.

Want to read more Life Sciences Report interviews like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you’ll learn when new articles have been published. To see recent interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.

DISCLOSURE:

1) Peter Byrne conducted this interview for Streetwise Reports LLC, publisher of The Gold Report, The Energy Report, The Life Sciences Report and The Mining Report, and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. He owns, or his family owns, shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Cynapsus Therapeutics Inc., DelMar Pharmaceuticals Inc. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services.

3) Ajay Tandon: I own, or my family owns, shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I personally am, or my family is, paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview.

4) Brandon Primack: I own, or my family owns, shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I personally am, or my family is, paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview.

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

We’re now into the second day of May.

Get ready for the rehashed news stories telling you to ‘sell in May and go away’.

Small-cap analyst Tim Dohrmann pours cold water in this hackneyed old phrase in today’s second essay.

And yet, it does bring up a key point. How do you know when to sell a stock?

Here’s some breaking news.

The fact is you don’t know when to sell.

Or rather, you don’t know for sure when you should sell.

A selling decision may look like a great idea at the time, as the stock falls just after you sell it.

But it may not look so great when the stock doubles, triples or more over the next few months or years.

So while this advice may seem a cop out, the reality is that there isn’t a single cover-all formula for selling. That’s just in the same way that there isn’t a single cover-all formula for buying.

Don’t Overpay For Your Stocks

The most important aspect to consider when you think about selling is what your initial expectations were when you bought the stock.

Many investors forget about this during the heat and excitement of watching the stock market each day.

That’s especially true if they see the share price fall four or five percent in a short timeframe. Or if they see the share price rise 20% in a similar timeframe.

Their reaction is usually to panic, in both cases.

They’ll sell because they’re worried the stock will fall further, or they sell because they’re worried they’ll give up the ‘easy’ 20% gain.

So, was the investor right to sell? Or should they have held on?

In truth we can’t answer that because we don’t know the type of stocks involved and the investor’s expectations when they bought the stock.

This is why we recommend investors think carefully about a stock before they buy it. It sounds obvious, but many investors get over-excited and then jump into the market paying any old price.

It’s for that reason that we encourage our analysts to publish a maximum buy-up-to price when they recommend a stock. For instance, in the April issue of Australian Small-Cap Investigator Tim Dohrmann recommended a tiny medical company.

At the time the stock was trading for less than three cents. But to make sure that subscribes didn’t flood the market, unnecessarily pushing up the price, he told readers to pay no more than 3.7 cents.

It’s important to use an approach like this in small-cap stocks especially, as stock prices can be volatile.

Make Sure The Reward Matches The Risk

But even before you buy the stock you need to figure out if it’s worth your while investing in it.

That’s the same for blue-chip stocks and small-cap stocks.

For instance, by all rights you probably wouldn’t invest in a high-risk penny stock if you only expected to make a 3–6% gain over 12 months. The reward compared to the risk doesn’t stack up.

You can get that sort of return from a bank account or a dividend-paying, relatively safe blue-chip stock.

However, if you’re after a big triple-digit percentage gain from a stock, such as the potential an 800% gain Tim’s looking at for his medical stock tip, then punting on a high-risk speculative small-cap stock could make sense.

In that instance, seeing as you’re looking for a big (OK, huge) return you should be willing to accept short-term volatility that could see the share price fall a few percent or more.

In this case, if the stock fell 5% and you immediately sold, then we could say that was a panicked reaction. But that may not necessarily be a bad thing for you to do. It may just indicate that you’re not the risk-taking speculator that you thought you were.

At least now you’d know and you could either stick to what you perceive to be ‘safer’ stocks, or you could perhaps not stake as much on your next speculation.

It’s something we call the ‘sleep well’ test. If a stock is giving you sleepless nights then you’ve either made the wrong investment or you’ve staked too much.

Do You Pass The “Sleep Well” Test?

Once you’re comfortable with your investment, that’s when it’s time to sit back and hopefully wait for what you hope to happen — a rising stock price and/or a steady stream of dividends.

Realistically, you should own a combination of dividend stocks and growth stocks.

If you’ve picked the right dividend stock in the first place there really shouldn’t be any need to sell the stock for several years. That doesn’t mean you’ll hold it forever, things change…companies change…the markets change.

But if a stock is paying you a nice and steady income, which it may pay you for year after year, why bother selling the stock just for a ‘measly’ 20% gain?

Over the longer term a good dividend payer can give you a much bigger return than just 20%.

As for your growth stocks, this all depends on the opportunity. Ask yourself these questions about each of your growth stocks:

• Why did you buy it?
• Can it still achieve what you hoped it would achieve? Or has it already achieved what you hoped it would achieve?
• Has anything changed for the better or the worse?

Depending on how you answer those simple questions you should know exactly what to do.

Selling can be hard.

Just make sure that you invest the appropriate amount in a stock and pass the ‘sleep well’ test. Also regularly ask yourself those questions about each of your stocks.

Doing this should ensure that you don’t panic and sell your stocks before they’ve had the chance to make you the kind of gains that you hoped for when you first made the investment.

Cheers,
Kris+

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

Source: Peter Byrne of The Energy Report (5/1/14)

http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/are-you-smarter-than-the-average-portfolio-manager-joe-reagor-says-to-invest-in-energy-six-months-ahead

According to Joe Reagor, analyst with ROTH Capital Partners, the average portfolio manager focused on uranium sees the potential for the uranium price to rebound in the second half of 2014—that’s why some uranium miners have already felt jolts in their share prices. In this interview with The Energy Report, find out about companies with crucial access to capital, and how undervalued oil and gas producers in the U.S. and Poland could deliver stealth profits to your energy investment portfolio.

The Energy Report: Looking forward to the end of this quarter, Joe, what is the prognosis for uranium pricing in terms of global supply and demand?

Joe Reagor: We expect to start seeing nuclear plant restarts in Japan. Each one of the restarted plants will consume 0.5 million pounds (0.5 Mlb) a year on average. With restarts lining up for early Q3/14, a resurgence of spot purchasing in the market will likely rally up the price of uranium.

TER: With a level of popular dissatisfaction about nuclear power roiling Japan, what is propelling the restarts?

JR: Earlier this year, there was a lot of speculation that Japan might move away from nuclear power. But the simple truth is that fossil fuels cost too much to import. Although uranium-based nuclear power is a bit more dangerous, as proved by the Fukushima situation, at the end of the day, it is a much cleaner and cheaper source of energy for Japan. As a result, the Japanese government is updating its policies in support of nuclear energy. Although the average person in Japan might not approve of this policy move, nuclear energy is the most cost-effective way for the country to move forward.

TER: Is there a growth curve for the long term?

JR: There are 53 shut-down reactors. If 30 of those are restarted, that will increase demand by 15 Mlb a year. Right now, worldwide, there is less than 10 Mlb of uranium idled. With the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) Agreement completed, and Russia no longer blending down its high-grade uranium stockpile, there is definitely a shortfall in the future supply of uranium. There are a couple of large-scale projects that can step in as we go along, but, globally, there are over 60 additional power plants in varying stages of permitting and construction. That is another 30 Mlb a year, so the potential upside scenario by 2030 for demand is an additional 45 Mlb/year uranium, roughly.

TER: How have companies that explore and produce yellowcake in the major uranium mining areas of the U.S. been faring post Fukushima?

JR: Some firms have been forced to idle. For example,Uranium Resources Inc. (URRE:NASDAQ) has a smaller-scale facility in Texas. Right now, it has about 600 thousand pounds (600 Klb) in resources sitting on the sidelines that it could produce in a healthy market. And Energy Fuels Inc. (EFR:TSX; EFRFF:OTCQX; UUUU:NYSE.MKT) has the White Mesa mill, with a capacity of 8 Mlb/year, running at a 1 Mlb/year rate. It began idling that in the middle of last year. And it is expected to be fully idled by the middle of this year, barring a change in the uranium spot market. It will deliver to contracts using both spot production, alternate feed production, and a little bit of production that was left over from its own mines. It is a tough ride for the U.S.-based junior uranium producers, in general.

On the other hand, the larger companies, like Denison Mines Corp. (DML:TSX; DNN:NYSE.MKT) andAREVA SA (AREVA:EPA) are doing alright. Obviously, their share prices are tied to the uranium price, but they are moving forward with plans to expand production. There are delays, of course. Cigar Lake, owned by Cameco, has been delayed before, but it is ramping up now.

TER: Do these troubles sweeten the deal for acquirers?

JR: There were a few smaller, undercapitalized groups. Energy Fuels picked up one of those—Strathmore Minerals Corp. But most of the large projects are consolidated down to a few players at this point in the U.S. The essential issue is that when the price finally turns, these companies will still be too undercapitalized to fully develop all of their projects simultaneously. They will have to cherry pick their best projects, and the other ones will sit on the sidelines. So there is not a lot of hope for a resurgence in supply in the short term, even if the price moves up significantly.

TER: If the price does move up significantly, will exploration take off?

JR: Around the world, there are numerous uranium deposits that could be brought into production, but in the U.S., the process of permitting and environmental approvals can take years. Historically, when there is a shortage of uranium, the spot price tends to jump significantly. It was riding a strong rally right before the Fukushima incident occurred, and that was on the back of the realization that there was going to be a 24 Mlb shortfall when the HEU Agreement went away. So if the supply shortage mounts, the uranium price will likely move upward, and the process of permitting new projects will take years, leaving the shortage in place or the foreseeable future.

TER: What firms are your top picks in the uranium area at this point?

JR: Let’s highlight Energy Fuels. It still uses conventional mining methods, as opposed to in situ recovery (ISR). Most people will argue that using conventional is a higher-cost method of recovering uranium. But looking at the potential for a strong uranium price environment, I believe that flexibility and scalability will become valued over cost of production metrics. Now, take a firm like Uranium Resources; it might be able to produce using ISR at a lower cost metric than Energy Fuels does conventionally, but Energy Fuels has the scalability to move from being an alternative feed producer of 500 Klb/year this year, to being as much as a 3 Mlb producer in a couple of years. Other companies will have a very hard time achieving that type of scalability.

TER: How do in situ mining techniques affect profit margins?

JR: In situ mining was originally touted as a significant cost saver, but it has not performed as a cost saver compared to conventional mining on a direct cost-per-pound of production, or at least not to the extent once anticipated. Generally, the all-in cost is in the $30–40 range for ISR, while conventional mining sits in the $40–50 range. Obviously, there is a difference, but it is just not as significant as people once believed it would be. The other side of that coin is the upfront cost to develop a mine. It can take hundreds of millions of dollars to develop a new conventional mine, whereas an ISR project can be brought online for, in some cases, less than $10 million ($10M). That significant cost saving is making the biggest impact for producers around the world. There are various tradeoffs between conventional and ISR methods to consider depending on the particular situation and access to capital.

TER: What’s the capital market looking like for uranium firms in this environment?

JR: It is better than it was six months ago. The average portfolio manager in the space is aware of the potential for a uranium price recovery in H2/14. Generally, you find that the market looks six months ahead. In the early part of this year, mostly in February, there was a strong move up in the share prices of a number of uranium producers and explorers. That occurred because of the expectation that, six months from then, or in August of this year, there would be a healthier commodity price environment, and investors are trying to get ahead of that curve on uranium. Capital for nuclear energy ventures is available, albeit at depressed valuations compared to what these companies were worth when the price of uranium was closer to $70/lb. The determinant consideration on all sides is how much new capital a management team can take into its kitty.

TER: Do you have any favorites the oil and gas space?

JR: One of our Top Picks is Synergy Resources Corp. (SYRG:NYSE.MKT). Its management team is continuing to deliver on its promises. The company has experienced some minor delays, but nothing that is a value-changing proposition. We believe that coming out of the end of its fiscal year in August, Synergy will be in a very strong position to build on its past success. This is a young company, remember, that only 18 months ago was not even drilling horizontal wells, and it is now developing its fourth drill pad. Synergy understands its drilling environment. It is in a rural area outside Denver, where there are a lot of people concerned with noise levels. Synergy uses pad drilling to keep noise levels consolidated to a single area. It is attention to that kind of seemingly minor, but important detail, that provides a good growth story to investors.

TER: How does pad drilling tamp down noise?

JR: Pad drilling confines the work to a single area and drills out horizontally. Drillers can access a large area with wells by using longer-reach laterals instead of having to space their wells out and drill closer to homes, businesses or schools. Instead, Synergy finds an area where the noise level is not a neighborhood concern, and it drills a series of horizontal wells from that point.

TER: Given oversupply issues in the U.S., what is your prognosis for the shale fields?

JR: The biggest supply issue in the shale fields is with natural gas. A lot of midstream firms are flaring off their natural gas. My personal view is that the midstream constraints are actually going to result in positives for the natural gas price. Earlier this year, natural gas spiked to over $6 per thousand cubic feet ($6/Mcf). That occurred because there were a few midstream shutdowns for maintenance reasons. One shutdown significantly impacted Synergy Resources; its midstream processing facility at the Leffler pad was shut down for 35 days. With the combination of the shutdown and the cold winter, the natural gas price spiked back up. This example demonstrates that all the excess supply of natural gas in the U.S. is still not enough to feed the system if the midstream does not keep up. Supply is relative to situation.

On the oil side, we are still not oil independent. We are approaching energy independence, but not oil independence. A significant increase in the production of oil should help to cap the worldwide oil price, but I do not believe that we are reaching a point of oversupply of oil in the U.S. or anywhere near it. The growth of the shale play is going to keep impacting worldwide oil supply during the next few years. There is going to be a tipping point that forces down the oil price. Most people believe that the forward curve of oil showing an $80–85 per barrel ($80–85/bbl) value of oil in a few years is accurate. It is just a matter of timing and how political issues around the world play out. Currently, the Ukraine situation is forcing up the price of oil, as there are fears of shortages. When that situation resolves itself, we could see a small pullback in the oil price. Then, the fundamentals should take over again and pull it down into the $80–85/bbl range.

TER: Can you suggest a reasonable weighting for a profitable energy portfolio?

JR: It really is important to have a balance of different types of energy sources. Some of the clean energy ideas out there—solar and wind and electric car batteries—all have their place. Weighting an investment portfolio toward any one specific energy type is not an investment strategy I would personally recommend! I believe that the uranium price has a strong fundamental story to go up in the next 12 months. I believe that the oil price has a strong fundamental story to go down in the next 12 months, while natural gas will be more seasonal, especially in the U.S. On the basis of these commodity price movements, I suggest a slightly stronger weighting toward uranium than oil and gas. From a production standpoint, however, many oil companies are growing at exceptional rates. As long as the oil price remains high, they are going to outperform most of the uranium producers, barring a significant change in the uranium price.

TER: Do you have any other picks in the energy space for us today?

JR: We cover a small natural gas company in Poland called FX Energy Inc. (FXEN:NASDAQ). It fell out of favor last year after drilling a dry hole on a well that had a 10% chance of success. If it had worked out, the well would have been a game changer, but it turned out to be watery and a loss of money. In today’s market, though, the valuation of FX Energy is a bit low. The company is now drilling a new well on a 100%-owned piece of land. It will not be an overnight game changer if successful, but it will allow the firm to develop a second situation like the Fences. The Edge Concession play could slowly develop into a second source of natural gas production in Poland for FXEN.

The nice thing about natural gas in Poland is that it gets $8/Mcf, compared to the roughly $4.5–5/Mcf that gas goes for in the U.S. today. That depression of prices caused by the shale boom in the U.S. has not taken hold in Europe. And since no one has been successful with the Polish shale plays, natural gas prices in Poland have remained strong.

TER: Is FX Energy only in Poland, or is it in other countries as well?

JR: It has some small legacy assets in the U.S., but 95% of the valuation of the company is based on the natural gas asset that it holds in Poland.

TER: Do you have a target price for FX Energy?

JR: Our target price for FX Energy is $5.75. It just goes to point out that stories that are out of favor tend to be the most interesting investment ideas when the firm is fundamentally strong, despite the momentary market disconnect.

TER: Thanks for joining us, Joe.

JR: Happy to be here.

Joe Reagor is a research analyst with ROTH Capital Partners, providing equity research coverage of the natural resources sector. Prior to joining ROTH, he worked in equity research at Global Hunter Securities and at Very Independent Research, covering a wide array of resource companies, including metals (steel and aluminum), mining (gold, silver and base metals) and forest products (containerboard, OCC, UFS and pulp). Reagor earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and mathematics from Monmouth University.

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DISCLOSURE:

1) Peter Byrne conducted this interview for Streetwise Reports LLC, publisher of The Gold Report, The Energy Report, The Life Sciences Report and The Mining Report, and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. He owns, or his family owns, shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Energy Fuels Inc. and FX Energy Inc. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services.

3) Joe Reagor: I own, or my family owns, shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I personally am, or my family is, paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: Within the last twelve months, ROTH has received compensation for investment banking services from Uranium Resources Inc. ROTH makes a market in shares of Uranium Resources Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. ROTH makes a market in shares of Energy Fuels Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. ROTH makes a market in shares of FX Energy, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. ROTH makes a market in shares of Synergy Resources Corp. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview.

4) Interviews are edited for clarity. Streetwise Reports does not make editorial comments or change experts’ statements without their consent.

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