Markets did not go far since yesterday’s US close, as speculators are sitting on their hands ahead of the US NFP report today at 12:30GMT. Expectations are 178K; if news will be better than this, let’s say around 200K, then be aware of a strong push higher on USD Index that will cause weaker majors. At the same time US bonds could extend the decline based on QE tapering because of good data. Markets however may not be ready for tapering just yet, there is a lot of risk involved especially in stocks, and as a result we could see a spike higher on US stocks futures on good number but then sharp bearish reversal on speculation for tapering.
On the other-hand, if data will be bad then stocks may not go far but EUR, GBP and others will find a bid, but only temporary, because our wave patterns are pointing for strong USD. Lets take a look at EURUSD and USDCAD
On EURUSD prices fell sharply yesterday from 1.3220 which could be start of a larger impulsive weakness. The reason is also a current bounce from 1.310 that has qualities of a corrective move. As such, bias remains bearish. Intra-day resistance is seen at 1.3150, at 38.2% Fibo level. Any rise back to 1.3220 will put pair in bullish mode, but only temporary for a larger corrective rally.
EURUSD 30min Elliott Wave Analysis
On USDCAD we can see lower prices, but based on the wave structure since end of August we suspect that pair is in final stages of a corrective move, called a flat correction. Wave (c) already has five waves down, so be aware of a bounce. Break above 1.0515 wave (iv) point will suggest that flat is complete and bullish moves underway.
USDCAD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis
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