Month: May 2014

S&P futures market reversing from the highs, but current downward leg can be part of a complex correction with support for wave c seen at 38.2 and 50% fib. levels. 1384 remains critical level; trend bullish above it.

S&P Futures (June 2014) 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

That’s deep pullback on GOLD from 1306 but because of overlaps and seven legs we see this move as corrective; ideally a double zigzag. Watch for a push above the trendline and 1297 swing that will confirm further bullish swings, back to 1306.

GOLD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

Because of only three waves from the low crude oil remains bearish, so we anticipate further weakness either from current levels or maybe from around 100.50 if recovery gets complex.

Crude Oil (June 2014) 1h Elliott Wave Analysis 

By ew-forecast.com

Technical Sentiment: Bearish

Key Takeaways

• Payroll rise by most since 2012, NFP 288k vs 216K;
• U.S. Unemployment Rate drops to 6.3%;
• AUD/USD tries to break  below 2014 bullish channel;
• 200-Day Moving Average eyed next.

AUD/USD has been grinding lower for three weeks now, testing several intermediary support levels until it reached the 200 Simple Moving Average on the 4H chart ahead of the U.S. NFP report. With a huge increase of 288K vs the expected 216k, and a drop in the Unemployment Rate to 6.3%, the US Dollar received an instant boost and will continue to gain against its Australian counterpart.

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD broke below the 200 Simple Moving Average on the 4H timeframe for the first time February 4^th, when the bullish trend began. Consequently, the pair is officially bearish on this timeframe and will continue to target the major support levels.

A break and close below the support trendline of the bullish channel is required, as well as a close below 0.9200, in order to make way towards 0.9154. This support is a confluence between the 200-Day Moving Average and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement from 0.8659 to 0.9460. If the pair closes below the 200-Day Moving Average, 0.9000 will be tested shortly afterwards.

With Stochastic in oversold territory, a small bounce off 0.9154 or 0.9136 is possible, yet the downtrend configuration should remain intact. Selling rallies remains the preferred strategy as the pair is expected to continue making lower highs and lower lows next week.

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Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

By CentralBankNews.info
    Uganda’s central bank maintained its Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 11.5 percent and a neutral monetary policy stance given that the forecast for core inflation over the next 12 months is very close the bank’s medium-term target of 5.0 percent.
    The Bank of Uganda (BOU), which last cut its rate by 50 basis points in December 2013, said inflationary pressures were expected to remain moderate in the near term with core inflation gradually rising but remaining within the range of 5.0 percent, plus/minus 2 percentage points.
    The BOU said this was a minor revision from its previous statement on April 2 when the bank forecast that core inflation would ease to 4-5 percent in the first half of the year.
    The forecasts for inflation over a one and two-year horizon remain virtually unchanged.
    In April it forecast that core inflation would rise to between 5.5 and 6.5 percent over the next 12 months while BOU Governor Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile told a news conference that core inflation was expected to rise to a range of 6-7 percent by April 2015.
    Uganda’s headline inflation rate eased to 6.7 percent in March from 7.1 percent in February while core inflation, which excludes utilities and food crops, eased to 3.4 percent from 3.7 percent.
    “The continued decline in inflation is mainly attributed to the appreciation of the exchange rate since the beginning of 2013 and the moderation of food prices in April 2014,” the BOU said.

    Uganda’s economy is forecast to grow by about 5.7 percent in the current 2013/14 fiscal year, which ends June 30, down from 5.8 percent in fiscal 2012/13, with cuts seen in all sectors, except for agriculture.
    Last month Tumusiime-Mutebile forecast growth of 6 percent in the current year and 6.5 percent in 2014/15.
    Today the central bank forecast growth in 2014/15 of 6.0-6.5 percent, citing public investment in infrastructure, domestic demand and the recovery in global economic activity. The agricultural sector, which has shown somewhat weaker performance compared with other sectors, is expected to improve in the remaining part of 2014.
    Uganda’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 2.3 percent in the fourth calendar quarter of 2013, up from 1.0 percent in the third quarter, for annual growth of 6.9 percent, up from 4.8 percent.
    Uganda’s shilling appreciated by 6.2 percent in 2013 but from late February through early April it fell against the U.S. dollar. Since then it has risen again. For the year, the shilling is up by 0.47 percent, trading at 2513 to the dollar today.

    http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb

Technical Sentiment: Bullish

Key Takeaways

• NZD/USD bounced from 0.8514;
• 0.8636 pivot breached towards upside;
• 0.8700 is the target.

NZD/USD failed to provide a Daily Lower Low when it bounced perfectly off the 0.8514 support and the 50-Day Moving Average. The pair has entered bullish territory once it moved above the 200 Simple Moving Average on the 4H chart and on the break above the 0.8636 pivot zone. If NFP disappoints, NZD/USD will continue its rally towards 0.8700 and above. Otherwise, another test of the support will be in play next.

Technical Analysis

NZD/USD invalidated the bearish lower low – lower high configuration from April when it broke above the 200 Simple Moving Average on 4H and above April 24^th High. The only immediate hurdle ahead of the 0.8700 pivot zone is the 61.8% Fibonacci level from 0.8745 to 0.8514. The 200 Simple Moving Average on the 4H timeframe and the round number of 0.8600 should continue to provide support for the upswing, otherwise the bullish scenario will be invalidated.

A Fibonacci rejection from 0.8656 suggests the bullish correction on April’s downtrend is complete. For this scenario to be valid we’ll have to see NFP change of 216K or above and U.S. Unemployment rate drop to 6.6%. NZD/USD will then target 0.8600 and below. On the Daily chart, the current high would mark the first lower high, increases the chances of a breach below 0.8514 next time it will be tested.

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Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

By HY Markets Forex Blog

GBP/USD recently reached the buy target 1.6900 that was set in our earlier technical analysis report for this currency pair. The price has been rising strongly in the last few trading weeks – following the earlier breakout of the daily Triangle from February (as you can see from the daily GBP/USD chart below).

The breakout of this Triangle accelerated the currently active 3^rd minor upward impulse wave 3 from March. The pair is currently trading close to the resistance level 1.6900. If GBP/USD breaks above 1.6900 – expect it to rise to the next buy target 1.7000.

The post HY MARKETS News: Forex Report: GBP/USD appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

Cotton recently reached the resistance level 0.9400 that was mentioned in our previous report for this instrument. The price earlier corrected up from the round support level 0.9000 – after a few unsuccessful attempts to break down below the support area surrounding this price level.

The support zone around 0.9000 was strengthened by 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Correction levels of the proceeding sharp intermediate (C)-wave from January as well as the lower daily Bollinger Band. Cotton is expected to rise further to the next buy target at 0.9600.

The post HY MARKETS News: Commodities Report: Cotton appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

FTSE 100 recently reached the buy target 6800.00 that was set in our recent report for this index. The price has been rising steadily in the last few trading sessions – after the previous breakout of the daily Triangle from the start of February (the lower support trendline of this Triangle stands parallel to the lower support trendline of the longer-term up channel from June of last year, as you can see below).

FTSE 100 is expected to rise further to the next buy target 6850.00 (upper boundary of the resistance zone which has been reversing this index from last October).

The post HY MARKETS News: Index Report: FTSE 100 appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

Exxon recently reached the resistance level 102.00 that was set as the buy target in our latest report for this company. The price has been rising sharply in the last few days inside the minute subwave (iii) of the extended minor upward impulse wave 3 belonging to the longer-term intermediate impulse wave (3) from last October.

The price just reversed down from 102.00 (which earlier created the top of the minor wave impulse 1 in December). If Exxon breaks above 102.00 – it can rise to the next buy target at 104.00.

The post HY MARKETS News: Stocks Report: Exxon Mobil Corporation appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

Futures for copper fell on Friday as it heads for its biggest weekly drop since March, as the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for China’s manufacturing sector grew lower than forecasted and traders waits for the US jobs report due later in the day.

Futures for the metal for the delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange edged 0.4% lower to $6,618.50 a metric ton at the time of writing. The metal has lost 10% since the year started and dropped by 2.2% this week.

China’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 50.4 in April, slightly up from the previous reading of 50.3 seen in March but still lower than analysts’ forecasts of 50.5.

“This China PMI data is kind of disappointing,” Helen Lau, a commodity analyst at UOB Kay Hian Ltd., said. “To make the copper price rebound, we really need better-than-expected numbers.”

US GDP

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) concluded its two-day policy meeting by reducing its monthly asset purchases by an additional $10 billion to $45 billion on Wednesday, overlooking the US weak first-quarter performance. The US central bank said the world’s largest economy’s growth is at a stable path.

Reports from the Commerce Department in Washington showed that the US gross domestic product expanded by 0.1% at an annual rate from January to March, compared to the 2.6% rise seen in the previous quarter.

US Jobs report

Traders will be focusing on the release of the US non-farm payrolls reports for April, which is expected to be released later in the day with forecasts of 218,000 new jobs added to the jobs market in April.

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The post Copper Extend Losses Before US Jobs Report appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

Stocks – Asia

Asian stocks were seen trading mixed on the last day of the trading week as investors focus on the release of the US non-farm payrolls for April, due later in the day.

In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 index dropped 0.19% lower closing the session at 14,4457.51, while Tokyo’s broader Topix index edged 0.02% higher at 1,182.48.

Japan’s industrial company, IHI Corporation saw the most gains on the Nikkei, coming in at 5.15% while Dowa Holdings lost 4.10%.

Japan’s household spending climbed 7.2% in March on a year-on-year basis, compared to analysts forecast of a 1.7% growth in consumption, reports revealed on Friday.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.69% trading at 22,287 at the time of writing, while the mainland Chinese Shanghai Composite was closed for a public holiday.

In China, the nation’s largest coal miners, China Shenhua climbed 2.38% higher, while China Unicom lost 4.20%.

China’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 50.4 in April, slightly up from the previous reading of 50.3 seen in March but still lower than analysts’ forecasts of 50.5.

Jobs report

Traders will be focusing on the release of the US non-farm payrolls reports for April, with analysts expecting to see 218,000 new jobs added to the jobs market in April, while unemployment is expected to come in at 6.6% from 6.7%.

Meanwhile, jobs data from the eurozone is expected to show that the unemployment rate remained unchanged in March, standing at 11.9%.

Stocks – Europe

Stocks in Europe were seen falling on Friday, with the Euro Stoxx index falling 0.37% lower to 3,186.70 at the time of writing, while the German DAX edged 0.14% lower to 9,590.54. At the same time the French CAC 40 lost 0.35% to 4,471.67 and the UK benchmark FTSE 100 declined 0.01% to 6,805.50.

Final PMIs

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Spain’s manufacturing sector was at 52.7 points in April, compared to the previous reading of 52.8 points seen in March and down from analysts forecast of a 53.4 rise, reports from Markit Economic showed.

Analysts are forecasting France to post a drop of 50.9 in April, down from the 52.1 reported in March. While the eurozone as a whole is expected to have risen to 53.3 in April, slightly picking up from March’s reading of 53.

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