The Senior Strategist with his outlook for the week ahead.
Strongest US Job report for more than 2 years. U.S. economy added 288.000 jobs in April.
This week markets might keep an eye with Ukraine, where the conflict is escalating.
Other than that we can look forward to ECB meeting, Ecofin meeting, and on Wednesday Fed Chief Janet Yellen is testifying in Congress.
Video courtesy of en.jyskebank.tv
Technical Sentiment: Neutral
Key Takeaways
The long term landscape still shows EUR/JPY stuck in a large triangle formation, however in the last month the pair has been respecting a tight bullish channel more than anything else. This week, irrespective of the preferred direction, EUR/JPY is bound to trade outside the triangle formation, which in turn will increase volatility and daily moving ranges.
Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY is trading just around 141.50 after testing the support trendline of April’s bullish channel which coincides with the support of the larger triangle formation. The 50-Day and 100-Day Simple Moving Averages offer support between 141.27 and 141.43. On the 4H chart, all major moving averages are close to the support area as well.
On the 4H timeframe, Stochastic is in oversold territory, bringing up the possibility that the current dip might reverse here, allowing EUR/JPY to continue higher within the bullish channel. The first target towards the upside is marked by last week’s highs around 142.40. A rally above 142.70, the resistance represented by two trendlines, will open the way towards 143.45 (April’s high) and 143.77 (top from early March).
The bullish continuation will be invalidated if price drops below 141.27, breaking the bullish channel configuration. Further confirmation towards the downside comes on a cross below 140.96. Once a lower low is formed, the preferred strategies will be selling support breaks and rallies since the short term trend will be bearish. Below 140.96, EUR/JPY will first eye the large psychological level 140.00. The support from February, priced at 139.10, is the secondary target.
*********
Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets
2014.05.05 12:30 6:30AM ET
Here are the Weekly Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF currency pairs.
Weekly Pivot Points: EURUSD
Price action is currently trading over the weekly pivot point at the 1.38708 price level, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The EURUSD high for the day has been 1.38839 while the low of day has reached to 1.38641.
Weekly Pivot Point: 1.38420
— S1 – 1.37957
— S2 – 1.37233
— S3 – 1.36770
— R1 – 1.39144
— R2 – 1.39607
— R3 – 1.40331
Weekly Pivot Points: GBPUSD
Prices are currently trading at the 1.68702 price level and over the weekly pivot point to start the week for cable. Today’s GBPUSD high for the day has been 1.68837 while the low of day has reached to 1.68654.
Weekly Pivot Point: 1.68535
— S1 – 1.67890
— S2 – 1.67118
— S3 – 1.66473
— R1 – 1.69307
— R2 – 1.69952
— R3 – 1.70724
Weekly Pivot Points: USDJPY
Price action is currently trading at the 101.952 price level and under the weekly pivot point to begin this week. The USDJPY high for the day has been 102.253 and the low of day has been reached at 101.855.
Weekly Pivot Point: 102.399
— S1 – 101.793
— S2 – 101.414
— S3 – 100.808
— R1 – 102.778
— R2 – 103.384
— R3 – 103.763
Weekly Pivot Points: USDCHF
Price action in the USDCHF is currently trading at the 0.87761 price level and below the weekly pivot point. The USDCHF high for the day has been 0.87800 while the low of day reached to the 0.87653 exchange rate so far.
Weekly Pivot Point: 0.87994
— S1 – 0.87489
— S2 – 0.87189
— S3 – 0.86684
— R1 – 0.88294
— R2 – 0.88799
— R3 – 0.89099
By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools
Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.
Article By RoboForex.com
DJIA Index
Probably, Index is forming extension inside wave (3). Earlier, after completing double three pattern inside wave [2], Index formed bullish impulse inside wave (1). During the week, market is expected to reach new historic maximum.
More detailed wave structure is shown on H1 chart. Index finished ascending impulse inside wave 1 and then formed zigzag pattern inside wave (2). In the future, instrument is expected to complete flat pattern inside wave 2 and then start moving upwards inside the third wave.
Oil continues falling down inside the third wave. Probably, earlier price formed bearish impulse inside wave 1. Most likely, in the nearest future instrument may start falling down again and break previous minimum.
As we can see at the H1 chart, Oil formed two first waves. During the day, price is expected to complete wave (2) and start new descending movement inside the third one. I’m planning to increase my short position as soon as instrument start forming initial descending impulse.
RoboForex Analytical Department
Article By RoboForex.com
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Article By RoboForex.com
EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”
Euro is still moving close to upper border of divergent triangle pattern. We think, today price may continue moving upwards towards target at level of 1.3990. Later, in our opinion, instrument may return to level of 1.3890 and then move upwards again to level of 1.4100.
Pound started forming descending structure, which may be considered as correction. We think, today price may grow up to reach new maximum, consolidate for a while near it, and then form reversal pattern. Later, in our opinion, instrument may start new correction towards level of 1.6690.
Franc is still moving downwards. We think, today price may fall down to reach level of 0.8700. Later, in our opinion, instrument may return to level of 0.8780 and then continue falling down towards level of 0.8630.
Yen is falling down; market is forming another descending wave with target at level of 100.00. We think, today price may reach level of 101.00, return to level of 102.10, and then continue moving downwards to reach main target.
Australian Dollar broke its consolidation channel downwards and tested it from below. We think, today price may continue moving downwards to reach level of 0.9080.
Ruble wasn’t traded due to the holidays in Russia. After market opening, pair is expected to continue consolidating inside triangle pattern. Main scenario implies that price may continue falling down with target at level of 34.80. Later, in our opinion, instrument may start new ascending movement towards level of 37.50.
Gold is still forming ascending impulse. We think, today price may continue growing up to reach level of 1340. Later, in our opinion, instrument may fall down towards level of 13010 and then start new ascending movement to reach level of 1350.
RoboForex Analytical Department
Article By RoboForex.com
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
With the recent pullback in the tech sector, this is your opportunity to scoop up strong industry leaders at insane bargains…
And one of the most compelling growth industries in the market today is data security.
Cyber attacks are increasing in regularity – and ferocity.
As Chief Political Analyst, Floyd Brown, mentioned in an interview on Friday, Target (TGT) and Neimen Marcus experienced massive data breaches last year. And recent reports show that cyber criminals were able to steal more than $300 million in Bitcoins from the now-defunct Mt. Gox Bitcoin exchange.
And these attacks result in severe collateral damage…
The attack on Niemen Marcus left 1.1 million customer credit cards vulnerable. Since then, 2,400 cards were used fraudulently… After the cyber barrage on Target, the company’s CIO was forced to resign… And the Mt. Gox debacle nearly sent the entire Bitcoin market in a death spiral.
Indeed, with the costs of cyber attacks on the rise, it’s absolutely vital that companies maintain strict cyber-security initiatives.
In other words, the market for cyber-security companies is only going to grow over the coming years.
Especially, considering the chilling statistic below…
Cyber Criminals Can Remain Invisible for Days
Traditional cyber-security products can scan a computer for viruses or protect against intrusions. But once a hacker has already found a way in, it’s much more difficult for most programs to detect the invasion.
That means hackers often sneak around in a company’s network for a while – completely unnoticed – before actually launching their attack.
Creepy, right?
They don’t just hang around for a few hours, either. According to Mandiant’s M-Trends report, in 2013, the median amount of time that attackers hung around in a victim’s network before being discovered was 229 days.
Luckily, one company has found a way to not only protect against initial intrusions, but also detect when a cyber thief makes it past a network’s defenses…
Preparing for a Major Share Price Explosion
If a hacker is snooping around on the network at any time, FireEye’s (FEYE) defense technology will spot it immediately.
It scans a network for unusual traffic, such as the IP address from a printer moving credit card information to a hidden part of the network.
So with FireEye’s software, companies can avoid the scenario described above.
Its advanced ability to spot malicious intrusions actually garnered some media attention recently, since FireEye was responsible for identifying the bug inside Microsoft’s (MSFT) Internet Explorer web browser.
Now, the company’s share price has been beaten down recently – with the stock dropping roughly 50% over the last few weeks.
What’s the problem?
Well, expectations for the company have been very high. But with the recent pullback in the tech sector – and the fact that FireEye is a young company that’s operating in the red – investors are selling off shares to reduce risk.
Rest assured, however, that’s the only reason that the shares have fallen so drastically.
When FireEye reports earnings tomorrow, I expect shares to blast higher, once again.
Fundamentals are likely to improve this quarter, as the integration of FireEye and its subsidiary, Mandiant, promises to increase revenue – with the sales teams for both companies now cross-selling each firm’s products.
Beyond growth, administrative costs will shrink as the two organizations combine – which will help improve profitability.
Bottom line: FireEye is the leader in a stable and growing industry. It benefits from a unique product, accelerating growth, improving profitability – along with a super-cheap share price.
I recommend that you act now before the earnings surprise hits tomorrow.
Good investing,
Tom Anderson
The post FireEye Earnings Surprise in T-Minus 35 Hours appeared first on Wall Street Daily.
Article By WallStreetDaily.com
Original Article: FireEye Earnings Surprise in T-Minus 35 Hours
By CentralBankNews.info
The central banks of Hungary and Azerbaijan cut interest rates last week but the trend toward tighter global monetary policy was reinforced by positive economic news and a growing sense of the need for major central banks to pull back from ultra-easy policy.
The shift in tone was most glaring in the euro zone where news of a tick-up in April inflation to 0.7 percent from 0.5 percent reduced the chances of the European Central Bank embarking on extraordinary measures, a surprisingly sharp turnaround from the previous week when it seemed almost certain that the ECB would spring into action to fend off the threat of deflation.
In the United States, a surprisingly strong jobs report that included a drop in the April unemployment rate to 6.3 percent, immediately caused traders to advance their rate rise expectations by six weeks to June 2015.
And in the U.K. there were fresh warnings by two members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee of the risk of rising property prices and the risk of raising rates too late, illustrating just how the public debate has shifted toward the timing of a rate rise and away from the need to keep policy accommodative to boost the sluggish economy.
And even in Japan, where any policy tightening is far off in the horizon, the confirmation that members of the Bank of Japan’s policy board in their latest outlook forecast rising inflation led to a decline in the chances of additional monetary easing this year.
The Bank of Albania, which has maintained its rate since February after slashing it by 250 basis points since October 2011, summed up the positive mood, describing 2014 as a possible “turning point for economic activity.”
Through the first 18 weeks of this year, central banks have now raised and cut their policy rates by the same number of times, a sign that the days of easier monetary policy are behind us but the trend toward tighter policy is still in its infancy.
Rates have now been raised 17 times and cut 17 times by the 90 central banks followed by Central Bank News.
| COUNTRY | MSCI | NEW RATE | OLD RATE | 1 YEAR AGO |
| ISRAEL | DM | 0.75% | 0.75% | 1.75% |
| ANGOLA | 9.25% | 9.25% | 10.00% | |
| EGYPT | EM | 8.25% | 8.25% | 9.75% |
| MAURITIUS | FM | 4.65% | 4.65% | 4.90% |
| HUNGARY | EM | 2.50% | 2.60% | 4.75% |
| UNITED STATES | DM | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% |
| JAPAN | DM | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| ALBANIA | 2.75% | 2.75% | 3.75% | |
| KENYA | FM | 8.50% | 8.50% | 9.50% |
| AZERBAIJAN | 4.25% | 4.75% | 4.75% | |
| UZBEKISTAN | 10.00% | 10.00% | 12.00% | |
| UGANDA | 11.50% | 11.50% | 12.00% | |
| MALAWI | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% |
| COUNTRY | MSCI | DATE | CURRENT RATE | 1 YEAR AGO |
| AUSTRALIA | DM | 6-May | 2.50% | 2.75% |
| ROMANIA | FM | 6-May | 3.50% | 5.25% |
| POLAND | EM | 7-May | 2.50% | 3.00% |
| CZECH REPUBLIC | EM | 7-May | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| GEORGIA | 7-May | 4.00% | 4.25% | |
| EURO AREA | DM | 8-May | 0.25% | 0.50% |
| SERBIA | FM | 8-May | 9.50% | 11.25% |
| UNITED KINGDOM | DM | 8-May | 0.50% | 0.50% |
| NORWAY | DM | 8-May | 1.50% | 1.50% |
| PHILIPPINES | EM | 8-May | 3.50% | 3.50% |
| MALAYSIA | EM | 8-May | 3.00% | 3.00% |
| INDONESIA | EM | 8-May | 7.50% | 5.75% |
| PERU | EM | 8-May | 4.00% | 4.25% |
| ZAMBIA | 9-May | 12.00% | 9.25% | |
| SOUTH KOREA | EM | 9-May | 2.50% | 2.50% |
We’ve given you this message for over two years.
We most recently repeated the message at the World War D conference in Melbourne.
What was the message?
It was that you should ignore the fake crises that keep cropping up and instead focus on what’s really important. In this case we’re talking about investing.
And now, one of the world’s most famous legendary investors backs our view. He says the bull market won’t end ‘for a year or two’.
He’s close, but this bull market could last another five years at least…
The legendary investor we’re talking about is Jeremy Grantham. In his latest newsletter Grantham writes:
‘The bull market may come to an end any time, indeed as I write it may already have happened. It could be derailed by disappointing global growth, profits sagging as deficits are cut, a Russian miscalculation, or, perhaps most dangerous and likely, an extreme Chinese slowdown.
‘But I believe it probably will not end for at least a year or two and probably not before it reaches a level in excess of 2,250 on the S&P 500.’
Today the S&P 500 is at 1,881. If Grantham is right the index would need to rise another 19.1% from this point to reach Grantham’s ‘peak’.
If that happens, it would be good news for our forecast of the Australian Share index hitting 7,000 points early next year. That would be on its way to taking out the 15,000 point mark over the next 3-5 years.
Of course, anything can happen.
Just because we say the Australian stock market is going up doesn’t mean it will go up.
And just because legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says the market is likely to go up doesn’t mean it will go up.
Like Grantham, we know there’s a whole bunch of trouble facing the world economy. And we mean real trouble, not the fake kind of trouble the mainstream press bombards you with each day.
But that doesn’t mean we’re prepared to sit on the bench and watch everything happen before us…waiting for the stock crash that could be years from happening.
For instance, despite a background of what many investors perceive as bad news, stocks can still keep going up.
There are two reasons for that. Either the news continues to be better than investors expect, or investors have already taken the bad news into account when making their investment decisions.
After all, if you want a 6% income from an investment and the only place to get that is stocks, then investors will hold their nose and buy the stocks. Naturally, when the bad news arrives they may wish they hadn’t — depending on if they can get out of the market in time.
There is a third reason. It’s that investors just don’t care. They don’t believe the bad news, they don’t know about the bad news, or given what has happened in recent years they assume the government will bail out the market.
We don’t mind warning you, stock market investing is risky. But it’s just as risky not to invest because of the risk of missing out on spectacular gains.
This is really important to remember. Just because things may look bad today, it doesn’t mean stock prices have to crash today.
Take this quote from Barron’s by famed value investor Seth Klarman:
‘Our view would be strongly that, on average, the returns from owning stocks are going to be very dismal over the next five or 10 years…
‘Right on page 150 of the current issue of Barron’s you find that the Dow Jones trailing P/E is now 29.1 times earnings. The dividend yield is 3%, and the market to book is 225%. Those are not the kinds of numbers that seem to me to be a launching pad for a new bull market. Nor the type of numbers that you would usually see when you are in the middle of a biting recession. Even if you looked at the more broad S&P 500, the P/E is approximately 20 and the dividend yield is about the same, the price to book is actually worse – 245%. So we cannot be optimistic about the returns from putting money into the stock market in general here.’
Klarman’s interview with Barron’s was on 4th November 1991.
Five years later in November 1996 the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 79.8% and 99.9% respectively. 10 years after the interview in November 2001 the indexes were still up 177.8% and 217.7% respectively.
In short, bad news doesn’t always mean bad news for stocks.
Oh, and if you think things are different today because the main indices have already rallied, then maybe you need to think again.
At the time of Klarman’s interview in November 1991 the US indices had gained over 50% since the big October 1987 stock market crash.
And while it’s fair to say that the US S&P 500 has gained much more than that since the 2009 low (it’s up 175%), the Aussie index has ‘only’ eked out a 73.5% gain.
And even if you had invested in the S&P 500 index in 1996 after it had made a 176% gain over the previous nine years, the index eventually went on to record a 529% from the 1987 crash through to the 2000 peak.
Could history repeat, just over a shorter timeframe?
The disclaimer will tell you that past performance isn’t always a reliable indicator of future performance. But it’s possible. It’s certainly not impossible.
All we’ll say is this: market crashes and rallies have a habit of lasting shorter or longer than you ever expect. Right now most of the so-called commentators and analysts claim this rally is over.
Maybe it is. But we’re prepared to bet that it isn’t. That’s why we’ve pegged the Aussie index to triple from this point over the next 3-5 years.
Cheers,
Kris+
From the Port Phillip Publishing Library
Special Report: Secure and Protect Family Wealth for Generations
You and I are in the stock market game for one reason. To make money.
Sure, it’s great to enjoy the journey. An education in the markets is its own reward.
But you can’t lose sight of the destination…your investment objective.
You want to finish the ‘game’ with as much money in your pocket as possible to fund your retirement and provide for your family.
That’s why it’s frustrating when a third party disadvantages you by ‘moving the goalposts’.
Well, it looks like that’s about to happen.
In less than two weeks, Australia’s Federal Government will hand down its annual budget.
Unless you spent the past three weeks sailing in the Bahamas without access to the news — in which case, well done! — you’ll know that the government has plans for a bit of budget belt-tightening.
One proposed measure is hogging the headlines. That’s the cleverly-titled ‘deficit levy’.
That’s the new tax that the government plans to impose on everybody with an annual taxable income of more than $80,000.
This tax might not affect you directly. You might be in a phase of your life that lets you escape unscathed.
But if and when this new tax gets the all-clear, it will punish many income earners and investors in their prime investing years.
It means you’ll potentially have to work harder for a comfortable retirement.
Now, there are a few ways you can do that. You could defer retirement for a few extra years. You could cut down on your expenses and moderate your quality of life. Or you can move further out on the risk spectrum and take a closer look at more speculative stocks for higher returns.
Personally, I like the third option best, although it is risky and won’t be suitable for all investors.
The fact is, with the government throttling investors’ take-home pay, a lot of people are going to find it increasingly hard to make ends meet.
That (for better or worse) will drive more demand for the services offered by short term money lenders. You may think that it’s a bit insensitive to talk about turning someone’s higher tax bill and financial hardship into an investment opportunity. But as an investor it’s important to consider the impact of various government policies on specific companies.
Investors do that all the time.
After all, what’s the alternative? That I don’t tell you about these opportunities? If I did that you should rightly be angry at me for failing to do so.
It’s for that reason I’ve recently increased the buy-up-to price on one of the stocks on the Australian Small-Cap Investigator buy list. It’s a company heavily involved in the short-term lending market.
Now, you might not think that these companies will be affected by a new tax on those who earn more than $80,000.
But here’s the reality: more than 30% of the borrowers who use this lender’s service earn more than $50,000 a year.
A percentage of those customers are likely to earn more than $80,000 a year. That means like it or not, the ‘deficit tax’ is likely to drive more business towards short-term lenders.
Add to that, recently this company also announced some exciting results. That makes now an ideal time to think about adding a company like this to your portfolio. You can find out how to get the full story here.
The simple fact is that there are always investing opportunities in the market. It’s just a case of spotting the opportunities and then taking advantage of them – even if sometimes it makes you slightly uncomfortable.
Cheers,
Tim Dohrmann+
Analyst, Australian Small-Cap Investigator
Article by Investazor.com
The week that passed was an undecided one for USDJPY; the quotation had a fluctuating path and closed the week almost at the same level it started. Monday and Tuesday, the bulls took the price around 102.80 so that Wednesday the bears to take control and push it down to 102.00. A better than expected NFP sent USDJPY sky rocketing towards 103.00 and beyond, but at the end of the day the quotation stabilized at 102.22.
On the macroeconomic side, the Japanese economy still sends mixed signals as the Manufacturing PMI and the Preliminary Industrial Production had a worse publication than last month while the Household Spending Indicator beat the expectations with a growth of 7.2%. Regarding BoJ Press Conference, the confidence Bank of Japan officials are showing in achieving their inflation target is lowering the chances of additional monetary easing this year even as the economy weakens.
On American soil we had another 10 billion dollars reduction of the QE program and the Federal Reserve said it will keep reducing the pace of bond purchases as the economy shakes off the winter hiccups, putting the central bank on a course to end the unprecedented stimulus program by the close of 2014.
Economic Calendar
Bank Holiday-Monday
Bank Holiday-Tuesday
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (0:50 GMT)-Wednesday. It is a detailed record of the BoJ Policy Board’s meeting that provides in-depth insights into the economic conditions which influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. The frequency is variable, about 14 times per year. A more hawkish tone than expected it is good for the currency.
10-y Bond Auction (4:45 GMT)-Thursday. The average yield on the 10 year bonds that government sell at this auction continued to be on a run. This month it isn’t expected any big change.
Leading Indicators (06:00 GMT)-Friday. It represents a level of a composite index based on 11 economic indicators that is released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends. This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously.
Technical View
USDJPY, Daily
Support: 101.90, 101.10
Resistance: 103.00, 104.00
USDJPY continues the movement from the past 2 weeks and a half between the support level from 102.00 and the resistance line from 103.00, having a fluctuating path. On the daily chart we still have some potential for a symmetrical triangle. The price had a spike Friday and was rejected from the 103.00 resistance level, failing to touch the superior line of the pattern. The MACD Histogram looks very calm and could be the silence before the storm which could be translated as the sideways movement before the upwards breakout.
USDJPY, H1
Support: 101.90, 101.40
Resistance: 103.00, 104.00
The price action on the hourly timeframe is a slightly ascending channel bounded by the resistance from 103.00 level and the support from 101.90. Hence, breakouts above or below these levels are crucial on short term and can set the direction for the respective trading session. The MACD Histogram shows us how the bears were unstoppable Friday in the end of the trading day and we could expect Monday to a recovery from the bulls who may push the price up.
Bullish or Bearish
This week is kind of poor in Japanese macroeconomic publications, so I expect that the price action to be driven by what it will happen in the United States and also how the situation from Ukraine it will work out. If the conflict does not get much more acute than it is in this moment, I have a moderately bullish sentiment on USDJPY for the week to come.
The post USD/JPY Forecast For May 5-9 appeared first on investazor.com.
