Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 08.05.2014 (EUR/USD, USD/CHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for May 8th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After short correction, Euro started growing up. Possibly, price will reach new maximum during the day. Main target is the group of upper fibo levels at 1.4005 – 1.4000.

As we can see at H1 chart, local correction was supported by local level of 61.8% (1.3903). According to analysis of temporary fibo-zones, upper targets may be reached by the ned of Friday. If later pair rebounds from them, market may start new correction.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Probably, Franc is starting its movement inside main trend. I’m still keeping my three sell orders. In the near term, instrument is expected to reach the group of lower fibo levels at 0.8695.

As we can see at H1 chart, Franc rebounded from its intermediate target at 0.8720 – 0.8715 and started new correction, which was supported by local level of 78.6% (0.8765). It looks like bears started new descending movement to reach their main target at 0.8695.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

 

 

 

 

 

Forex Technical Analysis 08.05.2014 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/RUB, GOLD)

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for May 8th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Euro is being corrected towards previous ascending impulse. We think, today price may continue moving upwards to reach target at level of 1.3990. Later, in our opinion, instrument may return to level of 1.3880 and then continue growing up towards level of 1.4100.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Pound is forming descending structure, which may be considered as correction. Later, in our opinion, instrument may continue growing up towards level of 1.7020 and then form another descending structure. After that, pair may consolidate and form continuation pattern. Main target is at level of 1.7730.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc is moving upwards slowly. We think, today price may continue moving downwards to reach level of 0.8700. Later, in our opinion, instrument may return to level of 0.8770 and then continue moving inside descending trend to reach level of 0.8630.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

Yen formed consolidation channel. We think, today price may continue falling down to reach level of 101.00, start new correction towards level of 102.10 and then form another descending structure towards main target at level of 100.00.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

Australian Dollar completed another ascending structure and broke maximum of current wave. We think, today price may consolidate for a while, form reversal pattern, and then continue moving downwards. Next target is at level of 0.9200.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

Ruble continues falling down. We think, today price may continue falling down towards target at level of 34.80, test level of 35.22 from below, and then complete this descending wave by forming another descending structure to reach level of 34.70. Later, in our opinion, instrument may form new ascending wave towards level of 37.50.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is being corrected towards level of 1280. We think, today price may complete this correction and then form ascending wave towards level of 1321. Later, in our opinion, instrument may complete this ascending wave and start forming correctional bullish flag pattern with target at level of 1290. After that price may continue growing up towards main target at level of 1435.

RoboForex Analytical Department

 

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

 

 

 

 

Philippines holds rate, but raises RR another 100 bps

By CentralBankNews.info
    The Philippine central bank maintained its key policy rate at 3.50 percent but raised its reserve requirement by a further 100 basis points to 20 percent due to solid domestic activity and “to help mitigate potential risks to financial stability that could arise from the strong growth in domestic liquidity.”
    The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which has maintained its benchmark overnight borrowing rate since October 2012, said the latest forecast shows inflation staying within the bank’s 2014 target range of 4.0 percent, plus/minus one percentage point, and the 2015 target of 3.0 percent, plus/minus one percentage point.
    “At the same time, the Monetary Board noted that the balance of risks to the inflation outlook continues to lean to the upside, with potential price pressures emanating from the possible uptick in food prices, as a result of expected drier weather conditions, as well as pending petitions for adjustments in transport fares and power rates,” the BSP said.
    In March the BSP raised its reserve requirements by 100 basis points and said it would consider further adjustments in its policy tools to safeguard price and financial stability. In 2013 the BSP cut the rate of its Special Deposit Account (SDA) by a total of 150 basis points to 2.0 percent to reduce the inflow of foreign capital and to divert those funds to more productive use.

    Headline inflation in the Philippines rose to 4.1 percent in April from 3.9 percent, slightly higher than expected by the central bank, but within its forecast range of 3.6 to 4.5 percent.
    “The BSP also remains prepared to implement policy actions as needed to prevent a potential build-up in inflation expectations and financial imbalances,” the bank said.
    Gross Domestic Product in the Philippines rose by 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 from the previous quarter for annual growth of 6.5 percent, down from 6.9 percent.
 
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Norway holds rate, repeats rate steady till summer 2015

By CentralBankNews.info
     Norway’s central bank left its policy rate steady at 1.5 percent, as expected, and confirmed its guidance from March that the rate should be maintained at this level until the summer of 2015 in order for inflation to remain somewhat below, but close to the 2.5 percent target in years ahead.
    Norges Bank, which last cut its rate in March 2012, said domestic and international economic developments were broadly in line with expectations though it acknowledged that uncertainty had risen somewhat due to the conflict in Ukraine, but so far the ripple effects have been limited.
    “Market expectations with regard to key rates abroad have edged down, primarily driven by lower key rate expectations in Sweden and the euro area,” the bank added.
    In Norway, bank lending and deposit rates had decreased somewhat while house price inflation had picked up again and house prices were slightly higher than predicted in March, the bank said.
    Norway’s inflation rate eased to 2.0 percent in March from 2.1 percent in February.
    In its March monetary policy report the central bank forecast inflation of 2.0 percent this year and 2015, rising to 2.25 percent in 2016. It’s next forecast is due in June.

    In the fourth quarter of 2013, Norway’s Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.2 percent from the third quarter for annual growth of 1.1 percent, down from a rate of 2.2 percent.
    The central bank cut its 2014 growth forecast for mainland Norway to 1.75 percent from a previous forecast of 2.0 percent in December, but maintained the 2015 forecast at 2.5 percent and 2016 forecasts at 3.0 percent.
    In March Norges Bank projected an unchanged policy rate of 1.5 percent this year, rising to 1.75 percent in 2015, 2.0 percent in 2016 and 2.50 percent in 2017.

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Twitter’s Freefall Won’t End Soon

By WallStreetDaily.com Twitter’s Freefall Won’t End Soon

I’m an avid believer in the old adage to buy when there’s blood in the streets.

Well, Twitter (TWTR) is hemorrhaging.

The stock has been in steady decline since it peaked on the day after Christmas at $73.31. And its descent was just exacerbated by the expiration of the lock-up period.

Lock-up periods prevent insiders, venture capitalists and other investors from selling shares of an IPO directly after trading begins.

Twitter’s lock-up period freed up about 470 million shares, or 82% of the company’s equity – and shareholders seized the opportunity to dump shares.

The stock is down over 20% since the lock-up period ended.

I was hoping today’s column would end with a recommendation to buy Twitter shares on the cheap.

But that’s not going to happen.

Consider that when Facebook’s (FB) lock-up period ended, 800 million shares were freed up – yet its stock spiked 13% higher. Facebook’s stock kept pushing northward from there.

Facebook’s experience isn’t an isolated incident, either. A stock’s reaction to the end of the lock-up period oftentimes offers a peek into its performance over the next six months.

Perhaps even scarier for Twitter, though, is the emergence of other social media platforms like Instagram.

Instagram is presently in hyper-growth mode, just like Twitter once was.

 

Social media is a slippery slope.

Every eyeball on Instagram is one less eyeball on Twitter. And once you start losing users, it’s hard to ever get them back (just ask MySpace).

On such merits, let’s pass on Twitter, despite there being blood in the streets.

We’re not about to leave you empty handed, though.

Director of Energy and Resources, Karim Rahemtulla, is currently on the ground in Turkey.

In his article today, he explains why he calls the country a “forever-emerging market.” And, better yet, he provides a way for interested investors to get on board. Click here to read his article now.

Onward and Upward,

Robert Williams

Founder, Wall Street Daily

 

More Storylines Impacting Markets

Falling Yen Fails to Help Japanese Exports

Contrary to the Keynesian view that a declining currency is a guaranteed path to increased exports, Japan just posted its largest-ever trade deficit – despite a decline of 20% in the value of the yen. The difference between the value of Japan’s exports and imports grew by more than two-thirds in the 12 months through March, to 13.7 trillion yen ($134 billion). This is the third consecutive year of deficits, the longest streak since records began in the 1970s. More alarmingly, the news that exports actually declined compared to the previous quarter – while imports grew by 4.5% – provides evidence of further weakening in the Japanese economy. The falling yen, coupled with rising energy costs and a slowing Chinese economy, lends credence to a global slowdown that has yet to be reflected in U.S. stock prices. Unfortunately, it’s just a matter of time before the news sinks in to investors.

From Death Cross to Golden Cross in 14 Months

In January 2013, the 50-day moving average on the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) fell below its 200-day moving average in a classic Death Cross movement. The Death Cross is a strong technical indicator for a decline in bond prices. And since interest rates move in the opposite direction of bond prices, this foreshadowed an extended rise in interest rates. This all changed on March 20, 2014 when the 50-day moving average crossed over the 200-day average in another classic movement, called the Golden Cross. This movement foreshadows an extended period of higher prices in longer maturity Treasuries – and a corresponding decrease in interest rates. This flies in the face of economists’ projections of a strengthening U.S. economy. The Golden Cross suggests that Treasury prices will continue to rise (yields will fall) for a number of months to come. If so, the anemic economic growth is likely to worsen – putting sustained downward pressure on U.S. stock valuations.

The post Twitter’s Freefall Won’t End Soon appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Twitter’s Freefall Won’t End Soon

Why Now is the Time to Invest in Turkey

By WallStreetDaily.com Why Now is the Time to Invest in Turkey

As a frequent flyer, I’m often eligible for last-minute upgrades.

So when I heard my name called last week while I was waiting in the Newark Airport, I rushed up to the desk to claim my prize.

To my dismay, however, I wasn’t getting an upgrade.

Instead, I was being called into questioning by two members of Customs and Border Patrol. Seriously.

Apparently, the officers were very interested in my trip to Turkey.

Since Turkey is a longstanding member of NATO and a staunch ally of the United States, I was confused, to say the least.

I would have understood if someone had questioned my desire to go to, say, the Strait of Hormuz or Cairo during the revolution. But Turkey?

Well, as it turns out, the officers were simply interested in my views on Syria.

We talked for a bit – and even shared a few jokes. I also informed them that they could check out my research on Wall Street Daily if they wanted reassurance about my plans!

I was fully cooperative and ended up not being sequestered for long. (Of course, they weren’t as cooperative when I began asking them questions!)

And now that I’m in Turkey and have had the chance to perform some boots-on-the-ground research, I have to say – there’s a ton of investment potential hiding here…

Following the Action on the Ground

Istanbul is buzzing. This is my sixth visit in the past 20 years, and the atmosphere has changed a lot

It’s not as seedy. In fact, it’s very sophisticated in places and, overall, it’s one of the most beautiful and vibrant cities in the world.

You’ll see everything from miniskirts to mullahs and everything in between. Alcohol isn’t as rare now, and the same goes for the hopping nightlife locations.

No matter how much Istanbul has changed on the outside, however, very little has changed about its investment profile.

You see, Turkey is what I consider a “forever-emerging market.” And that spells opportunity, even though many investors are ignoring the potential.

Why Foolish Investors Are Passing on Turkey

Right now, Turkey is down – falling as much at 35% last year (as measured by the stock exchange).

After a decade of strong growth – that saw per capita income swell from $3,500 to over $10,000 – things have stalled. That’s not surprising, of course, after the binge of leveraged real estate speculation, consumer spending and government debt accumulation (thanks to easy money).

Plus, issues in Russia (a very close trading partner) and the European Union aren’t making things any better.

During times like these, most investors will choose to write off the country as an investment.

Don’t make the same mistake…

At the crossroads between East and West, Turkey is what places like Egypt wish they were – and places like Greece hope they can one day be.

Despite what you see in the news, Turkey boasts a secular society. And it’s an economic powerhouse, approaching $1 trillion in GDP.

Ultimately, Turkey will always present opportunity… as long as that opportunity is at the right price. And we’re fast approaching that price…

One of the ways to stake your claim is to look at the closed-end fund market where The Turkish Investment Fund (TKF) trades.

Comprised of leading blue-chip companies, this fund is trading more than 40% below its 52-week high – and at a 12% discount to the value of its assets.

Bottom line: When it comes to any emerging market investment, you want to buy on the dips and sell on momentum! And Turkey is in the midst of a dip right now as far as the markets are concerned.

On the street, things are still buzzing – and that’s something to pay attention to.

When you notice a disconnect between the market and what’s happening on the ground, it’s almost always more profitable to follow the trend on the street.

And in this case, the action on the street indicates that Turkey is closer to the bottom.

Ahead of the tape,

Karim Rahemtulla

The post Why Now is the Time to Invest in Turkey appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Why Now is the Time to Invest in Turkey

Why Now is the Time to Invest in Turkey

By WallStreetDaily.com Why Now is the Time to Invest in Turkey

As a frequent flyer, I’m often eligible for last-minute upgrades.

So when I heard my name called last week while I was waiting in the Newark Airport, I rushed up to the desk to claim my prize.

To my dismay, however, I wasn’t getting an upgrade.

Instead, I was being called into questioning by two members of Customs and Border Patrol. Seriously.

Apparently, the officers were very interested in my trip to Turkey.

Since Turkey is a longstanding member of NATO and a staunch ally of the United States, I was confused, to say the least.

I would have understood if someone had questioned my desire to go to, say, the Strait of Hormuz or Cairo during the revolution. But Turkey?

Well, as it turns out, the officers were simply interested in my views on Syria.

We talked for a bit – and even shared a few jokes. I also informed them that they could check out my research on Wall Street Daily if they wanted reassurance about my plans!

I was fully cooperative and ended up not being sequestered for long. (Of course, they weren’t as cooperative when I began asking them questions!)

And now that I’m in Turkey and have had the chance to perform some boots-on-the-ground research, I have to say – there’s a ton of investment potential hiding here…

Following the Action on the Ground

Istanbul is buzzing. This is my sixth visit in the past 20 years, and the atmosphere has changed a lot

It’s not as seedy. In fact, it’s very sophisticated in places and, overall, it’s one of the most beautiful and vibrant cities in the world.

You’ll see everything from miniskirts to mullahs and everything in between. Alcohol isn’t as rare now, and the same goes for the hopping nightlife locations.

No matter how much Istanbul has changed on the outside, however, very little has changed about its investment profile.

You see, Turkey is what I consider a “forever-emerging market.” And that spells opportunity, even though many investors are ignoring the potential.

Why Foolish Investors Are Passing on Turkey

Right now, Turkey is down – falling as much at 35% last year (as measured by the stock exchange).

After a decade of strong growth – that saw per capita income swell from $3,500 to over $10,000 – things have stalled. That’s not surprising, of course, after the binge of leveraged real estate speculation, consumer spending and government debt accumulation (thanks to easy money).

Plus, issues in Russia (a very close trading partner) and the European Union aren’t making things any better.

During times like these, most investors will choose to write off the country as an investment.

Don’t make the same mistake…

At the crossroads between East and West, Turkey is what places like Egypt wish they were – and places like Greece hope they can one day be.

Despite what you see in the news, Turkey boasts a secular society. And it’s an economic powerhouse, approaching $1 trillion in GDP.

Ultimately, Turkey will always present opportunity… as long as that opportunity is at the right price. And we’re fast approaching that price…

One of the ways to stake your claim is to look at the closed-end fund market where The Turkish Investment Fund (TKF) trades.

Comprised of leading blue-chip companies, this fund is trading more than 40% below its 52-week high – and at a 12% discount to the value of its assets.

Bottom line: When it comes to any emerging market investment, you want to buy on the dips and sell on momentum! And Turkey is in the midst of a dip right now as far as the markets are concerned.

On the street, things are still buzzing – and that’s something to pay attention to.

When you notice a disconnect between the market and what’s happening on the ground, it’s almost always more profitable to follow the trend on the street.

And in this case, the action on the street indicates that Turkey is closer to the bottom.

Ahead of the tape,

Karim Rahemtulla

The post Why Now is the Time to Invest in Turkey appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Why Now is the Time to Invest in Turkey

EURUSD remains in uptrend from 1.3775

EURUSD remains in uptrend from 1.3775, the fall from 1.3951 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Support is now located at the upward trend line on 4-hour chart. As long as the trend line support holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and next target would be at 1.4000 area. On the downside, a clear break below the trend line support will indicate that the uptrend had completed at 1.3951 already, then the following downward movement could bring price back to 1.3600 zone.

eurusd

Provided by ForexCycle.com

P2P Lending: How This New Technology Can Help You Grow Rich

By MoneyMorning.com.au

I’ll bet you wish your penny-pinching bank paid you a higher interest rate.

I wish my bank did. The mongrels had the hide to slash the interest rate on my savings last month.

Apparently they didn’t get the memo that the Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t cut its target cash rate in more than six months.

Private investors like you and I haven’t had too many options to keep our cash working hard.

Until recently you could either like the banks or lump them. Keep your coin on account or stash it under your mattress.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ledger, personal and business borrowers have suffered at the whim of the big four banks for far too long.

Good luck convincing a bank manager to lend you money unless you can show him or her a long and distinguished credit history.

Australian savers have never had a worse deal…but most borrowers find credit scarce and costly.

But all of this is about to change in a major way.

A technological innovation will let you say ‘sayonara’ to the banks. You can thumb your nose at their paltry savings rates, and source credit elsewhere.

What’s more, you could even profit from this innovation through the stock market. Let me explain…

The new technology I’m talking about is peer-to-peer (P2P) lending.

Think of it as banking minus the banks.

Online P2P lending platforms match borrowers and lenders directly. The loans that the platform issues are often made up of lots of tiny slivers from different individual savers.

It reminds me of our modern electronic stock exchanges. They determine prices by matching bids and offers of various volumes.

If I want to buy $10,000 worth of stock in a liquid company like BHP Billiton Ltd [ASX:BHP] I don’t have to wait for a shareholder to offer me the shares in that specific volume.

In the same way, P2P lending platforms match relatively creditworthy borrowers with savers who want a better rate of return on their money.

The result is a better deal for both sides.

Borrowers can access funds at rates far below those charged by a typical credit card company…and savers can earn interest at reliable rates that are better than those on offer with the big banks.

I should mention at this point that these higher returns for savers aren’t risk-free.

Lenders on P2P platforms aren’t protected by the federal government’s bank deposit guarantee.

And you have to recognise the risk that borrowers might default. To moderate that risk, P2P lenders generally set up provision funds for investors that are funded through an additional borrower charge.

Wresting Back Power

The lending platform’s owner can make money by charging for access…whether it’s by taking a small percentage of the funds it matches, or by imposing a monthly access fee.

It’s a great model. P2P lenders are revolutionising the consumer credit industry. And the technology and willingness to run this service has only existed for a few years.

Just look at how the P2P lending market has taken off each month since it kicked off in the US. And that growth has rocketed ahead into 2014.


Source: LendAcademy
Click to enlarge


More and more people around the world are wresting back power from the major banks by choosing to borrow and invest through P2P platforms.

And now P2P lending has come to Australia.

The big banks take this threat seriously. So much so that Westpac Banking Corporation [ASX:WBC] recently bought a $5 million stake in Australia’s first P2P lender, SocietyOne.

Competition for the P2P dollar will heat up later this year when British group RateSetter, one of the world’s biggest P2P lenders, opens for business down under.

These developments tell me that P2P lending is here to stay.

They also tell me that the big banks can’t come up with the cutting-edge financial services that consumers want.

That’s because banks’ layers of bureaucracy stifle bright ideas like P2P lending platforms long before they get off the ground.

There’s only one way that big banks can benefit from these kinds of exciting trends. It’s by shelling out to buy companies like SocietyOne once they’re established.

As is so often the case in business, the people who will make the most from P2P lending are nimble risk-takers and fearless entrepreneurs.

How you can profit

Innovation never stops in financial services. To reap the biggest rewards, investors have to stay ahead of the curve.

I can see three ways that you can benefit from the rise of P2P lending.

1.  By lending cash on one of these platforms, you can earn much higher rates of return than what the big banks offer on deposits. It’s not risk-free, but it’s a compelling alternative to investing in traditional assets like stocks and property.

2.  If you’re struggling to repay a difficult debt, you could cheapen your borrowing costs by sourcing credit through a P2P platform. Over the life of a loan you could save thousands of dollars in interest payments. But the costs and benefits will be specific to your personal financial situation.

3.  As a stock analyst who focuses on the small end of the market, this way is my favourite…

Certain Aussie P2P lenders are currently exploring listing on the Australian Securities Exchange. They may offer shares to private investors who can then participate in the growth of the business.

Imagine owning shares in a company like this. If the industry keeps growing as sharply as it has since inception, the ride could be exciting.

If the platform is robust and the business is sound, investing in a P2P lending company could prove to be extremely profitable for an investor with the appropriate risk profile.

But even before P2P investment opportunities arrive in Australia, there are already some huge opportunities for investors in early stage and small-cap financial companies.

Small-cap stocks are a risky speculation…but if you take the time to find the right ones, there can be huge rewards.

Tim Dohrmann+
Small-Cap Analyst, Australian Small-Cap Investigator

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

Resource Stocks: A Market More Hated Than Tech Stocks…

By MoneyMorning.com.au

It was a good night overnight for stock investors.

The US S&P 500 gained 0.6%.

Actually, it was a good night for some stock investors. Tech stocks didn’t fare so well.

AOL Inc [NYSE:AOL] fell 20%, Yahoo! Inc [NASDAQ:YHOO] dropped 6.6%, Groupon [NASDAQ:GRPN] lost 21%, and Twitter [NASDAQ:TWTR] fell 3.7% after an 18% drop yesterday.

Who in their right mind would buy tech stocks?

Anyone who’s prepared to look more than two minutes into the future, that’s who…

There are generally two types of investor, the long-term investor and the short-term investor (also known as traders).

Long-term investing doesn’t necessarily mean being a buy-and-hold investor. It just means that you take a long-term view on an investment.

It means that you’re prepared to sit through the short-term ups and downs (mostly downs at the moment) in order to achieve a longer term goal.

Typical ‘bubble’ stock trading for 3.7 times earnings

Many stock bears will be wringing their hands in glee at the moment. The NASDAQ Composite index has fallen 6.7% in two months.

That’s a big old drop.

But when you consider that the index is still up 20.4% over the past year, even with the recent drop, it’s fair to say the market isn’t in as bad shape as the headlines suggest.

What you’re seeing in tech stocks right now is the typical price action that you get after any strong run.

As an investor, you never want to see stocks tumble like this. And it’s also pretty hard to figure out when it will happen. The important thing is to figure out if the market is right to sell off the stocks or whether it has gone too far.

That goes for all market sectors, not just tech stocks.

So, is the tech sell-off overdone? Our bet is that it is. Even the internet giant Google [NASDAQ:GOOG] is down 16.3% in two months. And with a price to earnings (PE) ratio of 27, you could hardly say that’s expensive compared to many other tech stocks.

And even a stock that most investors would consider to be emblematic of an internet stock bubble — King Digital Entertainment [NYSE:KING] — is only trading at a paltry 3.7-times earnings.

That’s not the kind of stock valuation you would normally expect for a speculative tech stock.

The market still hates resource stocks more than tech stocks

But it’s not just the tech sector that has taken a pasting.

Perhaps the market that has sold off the most, and the one most relevant to Aussie investors, is the resources market.

You only have to look at the following five-year chart that compares the resource sector to the NASDAQ Composite index:


Source: Google Finance
Click to enlarge


The blue line is the NASDAQ. The red line is the S&P/ASX 300 Metals & Mining index. Over the past five years the NASDAQ has gained 133% while the metals and mining index has fallen 11.4%.

Resource stocks have sold off for a different reason to tech stocks. Tech stocks tend to have high valuations due to the expectations of rapid growth. Whenever the market feels that growth may not happen it can cause a big correction in tech stock prices.

You’ve seen that happen in recent weeks.

By contrast, mining stocks have taken a beating for another reason…or rather two reasons. The first is that for some unknown reason investors think the Chinese economy is about to slam on the brakes.

They’re worried that China’s demand for raw materials will drop and this will have a negative impact on resource stocks. The other reason is that a big factor for resource stocks is financing.

After the 2008 meltdown it has become harder and harder for resource companies to get the same kind of financing as before. Big banks and institutions just aren’t prepared to put money into projects that don’t have a 100% guarantee of success.

It means that Aussie resource companies either can’t get financing or they have to issue new stock to pay for projects. This tends to have a negative impact on the company’s share price.

But despite the negative headlines, we still see the sell-off in resources and tech stocks as an opportunity.

Still a great time to speculate

After all, these aren’t the opportunities that you would invest all your money in.

These are ‘punting’ stock opportunities. The bulk of your stock portfolio should be in blue-chip stocks where you’re earning dividends and getting stable capital growth.

Resource and tech stocks are for the 5%, 10% or 15% of your stock portfolio that you’re using for higher growth (and higher risk) opportunities.

We’ve seen this kind of price action before for tech stocks over the past five years. At some point over the coming weeks investors will realise they’ve over-reacted.

As for the resource sector… The continued negative view on resource stocks has us stumped. It’s as though the market thinks China (and everyone else) will never demand resources again.

And yet, the US state of Texas is reaching record production levels. It’s currently producing 2.7 million barrels of oil per day. Somebody is consuming that oil. And over the coming years, despite the talk of the world economy becoming less reliant on fossil fuels, it’s more likely than not that oil production and consumption will increase further.

Tech stocks down. Resources stocks down.

In our view, that’s a great opportunity for Aussie investors to buy into two of the most exciting sectors on the market.

Cheers,
Kris+

From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

Special Report: Secure and Protect Family Wealth for Generations

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By MoneyMorning.com.au