Month: April 2014

Technical Sentiment: Neutral

Key Takeaways

• NZD/USD consolidates above the 0.8630 support;
• Daily trend remains bullish, towards 0.8845, as the higher lows configuration is intact;
• Below  0.8630, bearish pressure abruptly increases towards 0.8514-0.8550

Analyzing the configuration and direction of the swing highs and lows, in direct correlation with the main S/R levels and the major Simple Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) , can provide an accurate story of the chart. Weaknesses in the trend can be identified early, along with key levels where traders ditch or reverse their positions.

NZD/USD reached a fresh multi-year high last week, at 0.8745, 100 pips shy of 0.8842, 2011 high. While US data continues to beat expectations,  Core Retail Sales at 0.7%, 0.2% higher than the forecast, and Retail Sales up 1.1% vs 0.8% forecast; reactions are muted as traders are waiting for Yellen’s Speech and of course tomorrow’s Speeches from FOMC Members Plosser and Kocherlakota.
The US Dollar inaugurated this week vigorously, prompting NZD/USD to test an intermediary support for the second time. Traders who are trailing this pair higher should pay close attention to possible exhausting signs.

Daily View

The 4h and Daily uptrend configuration is intact, as the pair is always keeping up with it’s higher swing lows and higher highs. Daily RSI is showing a small negative divergence; albeit it doesn’t amount to much while the most recent lows at 0.8623 remains intact.

Intraday Consolidation Signs

The 1H chart shows strong consolidation between 0.8630 and 0.8700. The pair has bounced for the second from off the 200 Simple Moving Average, 50.00% Fibonacci Retracement level and March’s pivot zone. It should be noted that only above 0.8700, above the short term lower high, the main uptrend will fully resume and consequently target 0.8745, then 0.8800-0.8841 area.

Failure to cross above 0.8700 will leave price in a short term triangle formation, which will most likely be broken out of tomorrow. If the lower high remains intact and NZD/USD falls below 0.8630, then we will see a larger correction towards 0.8545, the 200 SMA on 4H chart, and 0.8514, the main price pivot zone from March-April.

*********
Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Crude prices were lifted on the first day of the trading week, boosted by the escalated tension between Ukraine and Russia over the weekend increasing concerns that the energy supplies in Europe may be disrupted.

The North American West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery rose by 0.51% higher, trading at $104.27 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at the time of writing. While the European benchmark Brent crude for May settlement added 0.54% to $107.92 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange at the same time.

Crude – Ukraine Crises

Over the weekend, rebels took over the police and government buildings in several cities across the eastern region of Ukraine after a Ukrainian secret service agent died in a shooting near the city of Slovyansk.

Russia has called an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council to discuss the recent turmoil, while officials from US and Ukraine blamed Russia for the violence which could lead to additional sanctions against the country.

Meanwhile, oil traders are worried that Russia could stop exporting oil and gas to Europe, which would weigh on the European Union (EU) economy. Russia supplies approximately 35% of oil and 32% of gas into the EU.

A drop of exports the European Union could affect Russia’s economy and income, in which 60% of its total income comes from oil and gas export.

Libya

In Libya, the country’s oil shipments may increase, as the country’s state-run National Oil Corp. succeeded in loading a tanker of crude from the Hariga terminal, one of the four ports which were seized by rebels last year.

Crude production in Iran climbed to its highest in almost two years, as it surpassed the one-million -a-day level, according to the International Energy Agency. Iran shipped 1.65 million barrel per day of oil in February.

Visit www.hymarkets.com   to find out more about our products and start trading today with only $50 using the latest trading technology today

The post Crude Prices Boosted by Escalated Tension in Ukraine appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By HY Markets Forex Blog

The 18-nation currency weakened against most of its 16 major peers on Monday, clearing previous gains after the European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi intervened against the euro over the weekend.

“Mario Draghi said, and he’s said it before, the currency does come into their views on monetary policy, it does naturally act as a handbrake on inflation,” said Chris Weston, the chief market strategist at IG Ltd.  In Melbourne. “He’s basically trying to defend the $1.39 level. Above $1.39 you’re getting to the top of the longer-term range,” Weston added.

The euro weakened to $1.3840 per dollar on Monday, after climbing to $1.3884 on Friday. The 18-nation currency also fell against a basket of its major currencies. The euro stabilized slightly and traded 0.21% at $1.3856 at the time of writing.

“I’ve always said that the exchange rate is not a policy target, but it’s important for price stability and growth,” Draghi said on Saturday. “And now, what has happened over the last few months, it’s become more and more important for price stability.”

Meanwhile in Germany, the eurozone’s strongest economy; exports from the country dropped 1.3% lower in February, compared to the 2.2% climb seen in the previous month, a survey showed on Wednesday.

Euro – Fed Speeches

This week, investors will be keeping an eye for major data’s which will be released this week, such as retails sales, housing and building permits and most importantly the Federal Open Market Committee members’ speeches which are scheduled to hold through the week.

The Federal representatives that are expected to give speeches this week include Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser in Stone Mountain on Tuesday, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo at the New York Stock Exchange on Monday and Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota at the Town Hall Forum on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is also expected to speak on Wednesday at the 2014 Financial Markets Conference in Stone Mountain and on Thursday she will attend the Economic Club of New York.

Visit www.hymarkets.com   to find out more about our products and start trading today with only $50 using the latest trading technology today

The post Euro Slides Lower After ECB Comments appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

S&P500 has turned nicely to the downside last week from 1865/1870 resistance area where wave 2/B completed a corrective rally. Market already reached a new swing low but based on downside fib. projections and strong bearish momentum price could be moving down in wave 3 towards 1765 zone. Only rally above the upper resistance line of a current downward channel would put market back in bullish mode.

S&P500 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

Crude oil exceeded 102.20 swing high last week which makes rally from 97.00 more complex but still corrective. We are looking at a three wave move with a triangle placed in wave b), so current leg from 99.87 can be wave c), final leg within a corrective advance, so we  should be aware of a bearish reversal. An impulsive sell-off back to 101.50 will be an important sing for a completed recovery. In that case we would be looking for short opportunities again. Until then staying aside may not be a bad idea.

Crude OIL 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

Gold is recovering from 1277 low but still showing a corrective personality because of an overlapping price action. Therefore we think that rally from the low is temporary; ideally it’s wave (b) that is part of a larger downtrend. We see price now moving into 1320-1342 reversal zone from where a new sell-off may occur. A decline in impulsive fashion will confirm a downtrend continuation for this market.

GOLD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

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I remember when I first started trading Forex back in late 2007, a little more than 6 years ago. Whenever the subject of trading would come up at a social gathering, I was usually pretty quick to chime in; I was so proud to be a “trader”. Without fail, one of the first comments people would make was,

“Oh, so you must like to gamble”. Or my personal favorite, “You must love going to Vegas!”. Being the naive trader I was at the time, I would get a little defensive and respond with something like,

“No, not really…trading is nothing like gambling if you know what you’re doing”. Of course at the time I had no clue what I was doing, but that’s beside the point.

Fast forward to today…boy was I WRONG about that statement. Make no mistake about it folks, trading is gambling!

Here’s what the Webster dictionary has to say about the definition of the word “gamble”:

1. To risk losing (an amount of money) in a game or bet
2. To play a game in which you can win or lose money or possessions
3. To risk losing (something valuable or important) in order to do or achieve something

Notice a common theme? “Risk” and “losing”. If there are two things a Forex trader knows, it’s that there’s always risk and you will lose money at some point. It’s simply the cost of doing business as a Forex trader.

So why then do so many Forex “pros” love to tell you that trading isn’t gambling? Or that their new and improved strategy is a sure thing with a 98% win rate? Because they want to sell you their product, of course. They want you to feel like you’re no longer gambling. Because gambling is a bad thing, right? The truth may surprise you.

Read More: Is Trading Gambling?

Justin Bennett is a full-time Forex trader and Owner of Daily Price Action. His Forex trading career began 6 years ago and has followed a path similar to many traders. For the first 3 years he tried nearly every indicator and strategy known to man, but each time the journey ended where it began, frustrated and in search of the next “holy grail” that would bring consistent profits. It wasn’t until he cleared every indicator from his chart that he had his “ah ha” moment. For the past 3 years, Justin has worked to perfect that moment into something that can be easily duplicated by other traders in search of consistent profits.

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for April 14^th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Market was opened with gap down and Euro expanded its consolidation channel downwards. Instrument continues forming descending correction, flag pattern, with target at level of 1.3750. Structure of the pattern will help us to define future scenario.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Market was opened with gap down; Pound is forming the second descending impulse. It looks like market is forming correction towards level of 1.6640. Structure of this correction will help us to define future scenario.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc is still consolidating. We think, today price may form correction as flag pattern and return to level of 0.8840. Structure of the pattern will help us to define future scenario.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

Yen is still consolidating; market completed continuation pattern. We think, today price may break minimum and fall down towards level of 100.00. Alternative scenario implies that pair may try to break consolidation channel upwards and complete current correction at level of 103.00. Later, in our opinion, instrument may continue moving downwards.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

Australian is forming descending impulse. We think, today price may reach level of 0.9340 and then return to level of 0.9330. This structure may be considered as head & shoulders reversal pattern. Later, in our opinion, instrument may continue falling down towards level of 0.9150.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

Market was opened with gap up. Ruble continues moving upwards; we can see head & shoulders reversal pattern. We think, today price may reach the first target at level of 36.20 and then fall down towards level of 35.75.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating near level of 1322; this structure may be considered as continuation pattern. We think, today price may move upwards to reach target at level of 1357. Alternative scenario implies that instrument may expand this consolidation channel downwards as correction towards 1295 and then grow up towards level of 1357.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for April 14^th, 2014

DJIA Index

It looks like Index completed correction in the form of double three pattern inside wave [2]. Earlier price formed bullish impulse inside wave [1]. During the day, instrument may start growing up again and form initial ascending impulse.

More detailed wave structure is shown on H1 chart. It looks like price formed zigzag pattern inside wave (Y). On minor wave level, Index completed impulse inside wave C, which means that instrument may reverse quite soon.

Crude Oil

Oil is trying to start fast descending movement inside the third wave. Several weeks earlier, Oil finished bearish impulse inside wave 1 and then completed wave 2. I’m planning to increase my short position as soon as market starts moving downwards.

As we can see at the H1 chart, Oil completed zigzag pattern inside wave [Y] of 2. On minor wave level, price is starting to form bearish inside wave (1). I’ll move stop into the black as soon as market starts moving downwards.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By WallStreetDaily.com

Zoe’s Kitchen, Inc. (ZOES) went public on Friday, earning those privileged enough to score shares at the $15 IPO price a lightning-quick fortune.

The stock opened trading at $24.67, representing a 64.47% pop over the IPO price.

Brentwood Associates, the private equity firm behind Zoe’s Kitchen, was the big winner. The firm holds eight million shares at the pre-offering price.

Jefferies, Piper Jaffray and RW Baird acted as the IPO’s book runners. Rest assured, those firms’ best clients were offered an opportunity to secure shares at the pre-offering price of $15.

I realize it’s frustrating to hear more news about the rich getting richer. But don’t chase shares!

I’ve got my ear to the ground, and vow to deliver an opportunity to strike your own fortune in the coming days.

In the meantime, tech insider, Tom Anderson, just unearthed a company with some serious tailwinds behind it. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if it’s atop the Nasdaq “biggest gainers” list within the next couple of days.

~Robert Williams, Founder, Wall Street Daily

Before founding Wall Street Daily in the teeth of the Financial Crisis, Robert Williams served as the lead financial analyst for a Forbes top-50 private corporation and an analyst for the endowment of a major academic institution.

From the desk of Tom Anderson… 

I think you’ll agree that spotting companies with the potential to generate double- or triple-digit gains isn’t easy.

But there are four super simple indicators I like to use that narrow the field by a significant margin.

I’d like to reveal these killer growth metrics today – along with one company that’s really picking up steam in all four areas.

In fact, some Wall Street Daily readers might recognize it from previous articles…

Killer Growth Metric #1: Customer Base With Deep Pockets. This one is pretty self-explanatory. After all, for a company to capitalize on a good idea, it needs customers who are willing to pay for it.

Killer Growth Metric #2: Wide Moat to Keep Competitors Away. It’s important to have a strong, competitive advantage. Other firms will try to copy a good, emerging technology and capitalize on it themselves – but they just won’t be able to measure up.

Killer Growth Metric #3: A Small Revenue Base. It might seem strange to look for a company that doesn’t pull in a ton of revenue. But it’s all about growth. If a company is already ringing up $10 billion in sales, it’ll be difficult for it to grow quickly compared to a company with, say, $50 million in sales.

Killer Growth Metric #4: Big Enough Portion of the Pie to Be Worthwhile. If a company has one billion shares outstanding, like Yahoo! (YHOO), then there are too many mouths to feed. Even an extra $50 million in profits would be too diluted to move the stock price. So I look for a company with just enough shares to be worthwhile.

There you have it. The list might be short and sweet, but taken together, these four metrics provide an insanely powerful filter for discovering the biggest gainers in the market.

Now it’s time to put it to the test…

A “Flash” of Genius

This week, my four metrics just spotted a company that shows all the signs of explosive growth potential: Fusion-io (FIO).

Longtime Wall Street Daily readers should be familiar with the name. It was recommended back in May 2012 as an alternative investment to Facebook’s (FB) IPO.

If you’re unfamiliar with the technology, Fusion-io provides resources to datacenters, allowing them to optimize their hardware.

Essentially, the company inserts flash memory into a datacenter’s servers at any point where there could be a bottleneck, significantly enhancing the speed of their operations.

On a real-world level, this allows web companies to move content across the internet as quickly as possible.

And the company has already attracted big-name clients. Indeed, companies such as Apple (AAPL) and Akamai Technologies (AKAM) are utilizing Fusion-io’s flash-based add-ons.

But that’s hardly the extent of Fusion-io’s reach.

This year, Facebook and Apple are rapidly expanding their datacenters to offer streaming music, video and messaging. They don’t want to be left behind by big, multi-product companies like Google (GOOG) or smaller, specialized companies like Pandora (P).

Well, with its dominant position in the industry, Fusion-io stands to benefit alongside Facebook and Apple as they expand their operations.

That makes right now the perfect opportunity to cash in on the next wave of digital entertainment expansion.

Plus, Fusion-io is still small, with just $375 million in revenue in the past year. (Metric #3, check!)

It has 100 million shares outstanding, so a quick increase in profit from the data center expansion will produce high growth. (Metric #4, check!)

And you can’t find customers with deeper pockets than Facebook and Apple. (Metric #1, check!)

To top it off, Fusion-io’s secret sauce is that it uses embedded controllers to create a virtual storage layer that’s faster than writing to disk, even solid state disks. This isn’t easy to do, so other vendors who compete with Fusion-io – like EMC Corporation (EMC) and Seagate Technology (STX) – have chosen to simply focus on selling solid state drives rather than integrating flash. (Metric #2, check!)

Bottom line: When you combine the right product, with the right customers, at the right time – and pair them with a company whose model can handle dramatic profit growth – then you could have one of the best performers of 2014.

Good investing,

Tom Anderson

The post Stock Mysteriously Rockets 64% Before Market Opens appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Stock Mysteriously Rockets 64% Before Market Opens

GBPUSD stays in a upward price channel on 4-hour chart, and remains in uptrend from 1.6465, the fall from 1.6820 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Deeper decline would likely be seen, and the target would be at the lower line of the channel. On the upside, as long as the channel support holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and one more rise towards 1.7000 is possible. Only a clear break below the channel support will signal completion of the uptrend.

Provided by ForexCycle.com

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Not everything is as it seems.

On the one hand it’s the centre of healthy living.

On the other hand it’s the centre of gluttony.

We’re talking about California.

To be precise, we’re talking about the important parallel between Californians’ eating habits and a key resource 7,889 kilometres to the south east of your editor’s current location…

We’ll try to avoid sounding too high-falutin.

As your editor enters the second week of our three-week stay in southern California, it’s hard to get away from the fact that California is a state of contradictions.

Every time we come here we forget that one main course meal at a restaurant is usually enough to feed two people.

We forget that a small drink at an American fast-food outlet is the equivalent of a large at an Aussie fast-food outlet. What appears to be two litres of Diet Coke in a big cup with a straw really is more than enough for one person.

But California is also the home of the ‘beautiful people’. You don’t have to stroll around for long in southern California to see that.

That got us thinking. Is it possible to have one without the other – gluttons without the glamorous? And in a similar vein, is it possible to have clean energy without the adverse consequences of pollution?

It seems like a crazy question. But it’s something many in the green lobby fail to realise.

Want a Better Environment? Prepare to Pollute

Here as in Australia it’s impossible to avoid the ‘green propaganda’. Trade in that gas-guzzling car and get an electric car instead.

But the propaganda goes further. The next step is the plea to ditch the car and ride a bike to work instead. By necessity that means living closer to the main business areas – usually the centre of town.

That typically means living in higher density areas. That means building taller buildings. That means more resources – more steel and concrete.

That means digging more stuff from the ground. It means using iron ore and coal to produce steel. It means powering huge furnaces and releasing pollutants into the air. It means drilling for oil to power the huge equipment needed to dig and process the raw materials.

But at least the inner city dwellers that ride a bike to work are supposedly reducing their ‘carbon footprint’! But with all that inner city high-density building, perhaps they aren’t reducing it by as much as they think.

(By contrast, suburban homes, while larger have timber frames from timber plantations, which help the environment. Most also have gardens, which help the environment too.)

But anyway, what’s our point?

Our point is that when it comes to new technology and shifting to ‘green’ energy, there’s no such thing as a free lunch. If you want cleaner living and less pollution in urban areas (doesn’t everyone?) it doesn’t necessarily mean eliminating pollution or harming the environment, it may just mean shifting the problem elsewhere.

Take this report from the BBC:

‘Lithium, a key ingredient in lightweight batteries, is already powering the modern world, and could be key to getting the world to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.

‘Look at a satellite image of South America. Halfway down on the left-hand-side is a distinctive white splodge.

‘Close up, that splodge turns out to be one of the most extraordinary and unspoilt places on earth, the world’s biggest salt flat…

‘This is the Salar de Uyuni and this hauntingly beautiful place could be part of the key to tackling climate change, helping to wean the world away from fossil fuels.

‘Which is why, pristine as it may be, the chances are that 50 years from now it will be all gone – dredged, crystallised and then carted away.

‘That’s because under its thick salt crust, the Salar de Uyuni is also the world’s biggest single deposit of lithium, accounting for perhaps a third of the world’s resources of this alkaline metal.’

You can see a satellite image of the area below:

Source: Google Maps
Click to enlarge

Without lithium you wouldn’t have lithium ion batteries. Without lithium ion batteries you wouldn’t be able to read this email on your lightweight laptop, tablet computer, or smartphone.

As Technology Improves, Demand for Lithium Will Grow

That’s the payoff. In order to achieve technological improvements and the convenience of staying in constant contact with friends and acquaintances, it will likely mean the destruction of a large area of pristine land.

We wonder what position the likes of Greenpeace would take on that?

It would surely be against the destruction of this natural environment. But then again, Greenpeace also promotes its activities through the likes of Twitter, Facebook, and Flickr. All of those media have grown in popularity in line with the growth of tablet computers and smartphones…big users of lithium.

As we say, there’s no such thing as a free lunch. If you want progress, and less pollution in major population centres (where most people live) it means causing an adverse impact to other areas, mainly where only a few people may live.

Technology is improving all the time, becoming more lightweight, and more portable. In order to keep this trend going and in order to help with the shift away from fossil fuels the world will need to rely more and more on other resources such as lithium and rare earths that have their own impact on the environment.

Life here in southern California may be a life of contradictions, but the same goes in the search for the ultimate in green energy (of which Californians seem to approve, despite the criss-cross of car-loving freeways). Lithium and the mining for it will be a key part of the shift away from fossil fuels.

And as unlikely as it may seem, perhaps the best way to profit from ‘green energy’ is to place a bet on a specific part of the resource sector – lithium.

Cheers,
Kris+

PS. Jason Stevenson is following one of the best lithium plays on the Aussie market. There’s little doubt that as technology becomes lighter and more portable that there will be a bigger demand for lithium in the use of lithium ion batteries. You can check out more of Jason’s work here…

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By MoneyMorning.com.au