Month: March 2014

EURGBP- With a third day of decline now underway, the cross looks to weaken further in the days ahead. Support lies at the 0.8250 level where a break will expose the 0.8230 level. Further down, support resides at the 0.8200 level where a break will pave the way for a run at the 0.8157 level, its Feb 17 2014 low. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, resistance resides at the 0.8300 level where a break will pave the way for a run at the 0.8350 level. A cut through here set the stage for a move higher towards the 0.8399 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 0.8450 level and then the 0.8500 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside on bearishness.

Article by www.fxtechstrategy.com

It’s easy to spot a couple of bullish signals – followed by positive gains all week round – and believe a downtrend has changed it’s direction.

In CAD/JPY’s case, while the first bullish signals were obvious, starting with the double bottom at 90.64 and continuing with a cross over the trendline based on March highs, it’s important to underline that up to 92.22 the pair was still technically bearish.

The most recent swing high in this month’s downtrend is at 92.22. This level coincides with the 200 Simple Moving Average on the 4h timeframe, a line usually depicting the separation between the bearish and bullish territory.

Up until now CAD/JPY has only retraced the last bearish swing. With a bullish break and close above 92.22, the pair would finally confirm the bullish trend. It should be noted that there is a secondary resistance nearby at 92.44, a confluence between February’s pivot zone and the trendline from January, which may still cause small rejections in the short term.

Failure of confirmation for the bullish trend will lead CAD/JPY to pull back towards 91.50, possibly even 90.64, to test the main support levels. With a double top at 92.22 and a double bottom at 90.63, the pair will technically be in a range between these levels.

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Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Stocks index  futures in the US were seen trading higher on Thursday, following Wednesday’s biggest drop in two weeks as traders awaits reports on  home sales, jobless claims and the US gross domestic product (GDP) for the final quarter of the year.

Futures for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.18% to 1,845.90 in New York at the time of writing. While Dow Jones average contracts edged 32 points higher to 16,211.

Stocks – Expected Reports

As traders await the US gross domestic products (GDP) for the fourth quarter, analysts are expecting to see a growth by 2.7%, picking up from the previous estimates of 2.4%.

A separate report may reveal that the Commerce Department increased its forecast for economic growth for last year’s final quarter to 2.7%, according to analysts,

Another report which is expected to be released later in the day is the jobless claims, which is expected to show a rise to 323,000 in the week ending March 22, compared to the previous week figures of 320,000.

The release for pending home sales for February may show a rise by 0.2% month-on-month, following the 0.1% gain in January.

Earlier this month, Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen said the US Central bank’s asset purchases could possible end around October this year and benchmark interest rates may increase in the next six months. As Cleveland Fed president Sandra Pianalto is expected to give a speech at later in the day.

Ukraine Crises

Earlier in the day, the International Monetary Fund said it agreed to a $14 billion – $18 billion standby agreement with Ukraine, while the US President met with European leaders to discuss harsher consequences against Russia.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

Crude prices were seen climbing towards a week high on Thursday as reports released showed that US crude stockpiles declined, while demand for gasoline advanced to its highest in three months.

The North American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery added 7 cents, trading at $100.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at the time of writing. While the Brent crude for May settlement traded 3 cents lower at $107 a barrel on the ICE futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $6.67 to WTI.

US Crude Supplies

According to the Energy Information Administration, supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI crude; dropped to the lowest in two year. Supplies fell by 1.33 million barrels to 28.5 million in the week ending March 21. Reports from the EIA also revealed gasoline demand surpassed nine million barrels a day.

Gasoline consumption climbed by 5.8% in the last week to 9.002 million barrels a day, the highest since December 20, according to reports from EIA. Distillate supplies, including heating oil and diesel, rose by 1.56 million barrels to 112.4 million.

Crude inventories in the US advanced by 6.62 million barrels to 382.5 million, higher than analysts’ estimates of a rise of 2.5 million.

Libya

In Libya, the country is currently producing 171,000 barrels a day, less than its output capacity of 1.5 million barrels as fields remain closed due to the ongoing political crises in the country, according to Mohamed Elharari, spokesman for National Oil Corp.

Ukraine Crises

While the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine continues to be in the spotlight as the US President Barack Obama met with European leaders to discuss further and tougher consequences towards Russia, over the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.

“Yesterday’s appeal by US President Obama that Europe should use fracking as a means of reducing its energy reliance on Russia is something that can only be achieved in the long term if at all,” according to the Commerzbank analyst note. “In the short term, Europe will remain heavily dependent on Russian energy supplies,”

The Houston Ship Channel reopened on Wednesday, after a closure due to the oil-spill caused by a collision.

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By CentralBankNews.info
    Taiwan’s central bank left its benchmark rate steady at 1.875 percent, as expected, and said the government’s budget office was forecasting higher 2014 growth despite a slowdown in China’s growth and the U.S. Fed’s scaling back on its asset purchases, which “might complicate the outlook for the global economy” due to cross-border spillovers and heightened financial market volatility.
    The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan), which has maintained its rate since June 2011,  said the rate was held steady due to its assessment of “moderate growth and mild inflation outlook in the domestic economy and lingering uncertainties in the global economy.”
    Economic growth in the first quarter of 2014 is forecast at 3.02 percent and the full year forecast is 2.82 percent, up from in 2.11 percent in 2013. Fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product rose by 2.43 percent from the third quarter for annual growth of 2.95 percent.
    Employment is also continuing to rise, the bank said, particularly in the services sector with the unemployment rate down from 4.05 percent in February from January’s 4.07 percent.
    Inflation is forecast to remain stable at an average 1.07 percent in 2014 amid mild global inflation expectations, muted domestic demand and a negative output gap.
    In February Taiwan’s consumer prices fell by 0.05 percent from inflation of 0.76 percent in January. For the first two months of the year, consumer prices averaged 0.39 percent.

    http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb

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2014.03.27 12:30 6:30AM ET | USDJPY Currency Pair

Here are the Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the USDJPY currency pair today. Price action is currently trading over the daily pivot point at the 102.154 price level, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The USDJPY high for the day has been 102.278 while the low of day has reached to 101.712. The pair earlier today opened the Asian trading session below the daily pivot and initially trended lower with the pair finding support around the S1 support line and then ascended back above the day’s pivot level.

Daily Pivot Point: 102.130
— S1 – 101.795
— S2 – 101.529
— S3 – 101.194
— R1 – 102.396
— R2 – 102.731
— R3 – 102.997

Weekly Pivot Points: USDJPY

Prices are currently trading over the weekly pivot point at time of writing. The USDJPY has been on an overall slightly bearish trend this week after opening the trading week above the weekly pivot.

Weekly Pivot Point: 102.066
— S1 – 101.462
— S2 – 100.661
— S3 – 100.057
— R1 – 102.867
— R2 – 103.471
— R3 – 104.272

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.

2014.03.27 12:30 6:30AM ET | USDCHF Currency Pair

Here are the Pivot Points Levels with Support (S) and Resistance (R) for the USDCHF currency pair today. Price action is currently trading at the 0.88622 price level and over the daily pivot point, according to data at 6:30 AM ET. The USDCHF high for the day has been 0.88694 while the low of day has reached to 0.88418. The pair earlier today opened the Asian trading session just slightly above the daily pivot and has trended higher over the course of the day with resistance being found at the R1 resistance level (0.8869).

Daily Pivot Point: 0.88471
— S1 – 0.88251
— S2 – 0.88026
— S3 – 0.87806
— R1 – 0.88696
— R2 – 0.88916
— R3 – 0.89141

Weekly Pivot Points: USDCHF

Prices are currently trading over the weekly pivot point at time of writing. The USDCHF has been on an overall bullish trend this week after opening the trading week above the weekly pivot and finding support below the pivot area.

Weekly Pivot Point: 0.88027
— S1 – 0.87371
— S2 – 0.86474
— S3 – 0.85818
— R1 – 0.88924
— R2 – 0.89580
— R3 – 0.90477

By CountingPips.com – Forex Trading Apps & Currency Trade Tools

Disclaimer: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and volatility and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. All information and opinions contained do not constitute investment advice and accuracy of prices, charts, calculations cannot be guaranteed.

By CentralBankNews.info
    Norway’s central bank held its policy rate steady at 1.5 percent, as expected, and reiterated that it expects to maintain this rate until the summer of 2015 followed by a gradual increase.
    Norges Bank, which last cut its rate in March 2012, said the Norwegian economy was performing broadly as projected in the December policy report though growth prospects had weakened somewhat.  
    However, the bank still expects growth to pick up further ahead, with capacity utilization increasing gradually towards a normal level after falling over the next year.
    “At its meeting, the Executive Board decided that the key policy rate should be in the interval 1% – 2% in the period to the publication of the next report on 19 June 2014, unless the Norwegian economy is exposed to new major shocks,” the bank said.
     Growth in petroleum investment and housing investment is likely to be somewhat weaker than projected, with the krone currency slightly weaker than assumed and wage growth higher than expected in 2013, the bank said.
    “There are prospects that consumer price inflation will be slightly higher than previously projected,” the bank quoted its governor, Oeystein Olsen, as saying, adding that inflation was projected to be somewhat lower, but close to 2.5 percent in the years ahead.

    Norway’s inflation rate eased to 2.1 percent in February from 2.3 percent in January.
    In December the bank said inflation had been lower than expected and reduced its 2014 inflation forecast to 2.0 percent from a September forecast of 2.25 percent. Inflation in 2015 was forecast at 2.0 percent.
    Norway’s Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 from the third quarter for annual expansion of only 1.1 percent, down from 2.2 percent in the third quarter.
    In December Norges Bank forecast economic expansion of 2.0 percent this year, down from a previous forecast of 2.25 percent, and 2.50 percent in 2015, down from a previous forecast of 2.75 percent.
    In September 2013 the central bank had forecast that rates would be maintained until the summer of 2014 but then in November it dropped this guidance. In December it then said that the policy rate should be maintained to the summer of 2015 and gradually increased thereafter.

    http://ift.tt/1cQwTGQ;

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for March 27^th, 2014

DJIA Index

Index is still being corrected. It looks like after completing zigzag pattern inside wave (B), price started forming bearish impulse inside wave (C) of [2]. Possibly, instrument may break minimum until the end of this week.

More detailed wave structure is shown on H1 chart. It looks like price formed bearish impulse inside wave 1. Instrument is expected to finish local correction during the day and then start falling down inside the third wave.

Crude Oil

Oil is still being corrected. It looks like after completing descending impulse, price started forming the second wave. In the near term, instrument may move upwards a bit, but later it is expected to start new descending movement inside wave 3.

As we can see at the H1 chart, Oil formed horizontal triangle pattern inside wave [B]. I opened short-term buy order during local correction. I’ll move stop into the black as soon as market breaks maximum.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.