Month: March 2014

Written by Daniel Elo

Investors are looking forward to Australia’s GDP releases for insight as to the state of the Australian economy and the future direction of the Australian Dollar.  Australian GDP set for release on February, March 5th. Analysts expect growth of 0.7% (QoQ) and 2.5% (YoY). Some analysts have revised their expectations based on disappointing business spend plans data last week. If the support level holds (0.8915), a better than expected GDP result could drive the price of the Australian dollar beyond the 0.8915 support. A worse than expected result may likely bring the AUD’s previous resistance/support of 0.8830 into play as potential downside target.

Written by Daniel Elo, Independent Analyst for www.EconomicCalendar.com

By CentralBankNews.info
    Kenya’s central bank maintained its Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 8.50 percent to continue anchoring inflation expectations as inflation remains in the upper bound of the bank’s medium term target of 5.0 percent despite its recent decline.
    However, the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), which has held its rate steady since May 2013 after cutting it by 250 basis points in the first months of the year, said overall inflation eased to 6.86 percent in February from January’s 7.21 percent while non-food, non-fuel inflation (NFNF) had risen slightly to 4.93 percent from 4.83 percent, indicating that its policy stance had supported a stable inflation rate and that private sector credit growth was non-inflationary.
    The CBK added that both 1-month and 3-month inflation measures had stabilized in February, “indicating an easing of underlying inflationary pressure.”
    The central bank targets inflation in a range of 2.5 percentage points around a 5 percent midpoint. Inflation remained within the CBK’s range last year apart from September and October when inflation exceeded the upper limit following the imposition of a 16 percent valued-added-tax on some goods.
    Kenya’s shilling has also been stable in the last month, fluctuating within a narrower range of 86.06 to 86.58 to the U.S. dollar compared with a range of 85.46 to 86.96 in January.
    The central bank said its level of foreign reserves had risen to US$ 6.258 billion at the end of February, the equivalent of 4.38 months of imports, from $6.165 billion end December, mainly due to commercial banks selling foreign exchange to the CBK.
    It added that Kenya’s cumulative current account deficit had improved to 8.09 percent of Gross Domestic Product by December 2013, down from a deficit of 10.45 percent in 2012, while the government’s borrowing program for fiscal 2013/14 was consistent with monetary policy objectives. This means the  the private sector will not be crowded out, an effect that could jeopardize the expected increase in private investment.
    Kenya’s banking sector also remains solvent, according to the latest stress tests, with annual growth in private sector credit of 20.47 percent in January, up from 20.08 percent in December, and confidence in the economy remains strong with the central bank’s market perception survey from February showing that the private sector expects inflation and the exchange rate to remain stable for the remainder of this year and sustained optimism for strong economic growth in 2014.
    The central bank also noted that Fitch Ratings had affirmed Kenya’s long-term foreign and local currency rating at B+ and BB-, respectively, with a stable outlook, while activity on the Nairobi stock exchange had been buoyant and diaspora remittances continued to average over $110 million a month between July 2013 and January 2014.
    Kenya’s GDP expanded by 1.6 percent in the third calendar quarter of 2013 from the second quarter for annual growth of 4.4 percent, up from 4.3 percent in the second quarter.

    http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb

GOLD broke to a new swing high, which can be wave (v) in C as shown at the updated wave count. We see prices hitting first resistance area around 1352 from where price may turn down if at the same time RSI resistance line will not be breached. Generally speaking divergence on the RSI and fifth wave up in (c) signal a coming reversal on metal; we are just waiting on impulsive sell-off back to 1320 to confirm bearish waves.

GOLD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

GOLD One Hour

Gold is reversing down again after recent five wave rally from 1319 with termination point at 1354. Current weakness came in after earlier Russia-Ukraine news. Decline has some impulsive qualities so looks like price is heading lower towards unfilled gap. A complete five wave fall from the top will put intraday trend on Gold in bearish mode.

GOLD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

Written by www.ew-forecast.com

14 days trial just for €1 >> http://www.ew-forecast.com/register

By CentralBankNews.info
    Uganda’s central bank maintained its Central Bank Rate (CBR) at a neutral level of 11.5 percent but said there were potential risks of stronger inflationary pressures from currency depreciation, stronger domestic demand and higher food prices while a possible decline in foreign aid was posing a source of uncertainty for the country’s balance of payments and economy.
    The Bank of Uganda  (BOU), which cut its CBR rate by 50 basis points in 2013, cut its forecast for core inflation to 4-5 percent over the next few months, down from February’s forecast of 5-6 percent in the first half of 2014, but added that inflation was then expected to rise to between 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent over the next 12 months.
    Uganda’s headline inflation rate eased to 6.7 percent in February from January’s 6.9 percent while core inflation, which excludes food, energy and utilities, fell to 3.7 percent in February from 4.6 percent. The BOU attributed the lower inflation rate to a 7.0 percent appreciation of the shilling in the 12 months to 2014.
    After strengthening last year, Uganda’s shilling was hit last week after foreign aid donors, including the World Bank, withheld or threatened to withhold aid in reaction to new legislation that toughens the punishment for homosexuals.
    The drop in the shilling started last Wednesday with dealers saying the central bank had intervened and sold dollars to stop the decline. On Thursday the central bank continued to support the shilling and then on Friday the central bank confirmed it was selling foreign currency.
    Late on Thursday the World Bank said it was postponing a US$ 90 million loan for Uganda’s health system and Sweden’s finance minster then on Friday said the law would make it hard to continue funding projects. Denmark and Norway have already withheld aid while the United States, the country’s biggest donor, is reviewing its aid for health projects.
    The shilling fell to 2,534.9 to the U.S. dollar last Friday, down 2.8 percent from the previous week’s close, but rose slightly this week to trade around 2,523 today, largely unchanged from 2,525 end-2013.
    Despite uncertainty surrounding foreign aid, the central bank said it expects Uganda’s economy to be “relatively buoyant” in the 2013/14 fiscal year, which began on July 1, due to fiscal stimulus, a strengthening global environment, strong inflows of foreign direct investment and household consumption.
    “However, there are risks to this growth outlook emanating from weak bank credit growth,” the BOU said.
    Last month the BOU forecast growth in 2013/14 of 6.0 to 6.5 percent and said banks’ credit to households had risen by 38 percent in December.
    Uganda’s Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.6 percent in the third calendar quarter from the second quarter for annual growth of 2.2 percent, down from growth of 5.8 percent in the second quarter.

    http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb
     
   

The EURUSD Tested Support At 1.3720

Being under pressure due to the critical situation in Ukraine, the EURUSD pair, opened by the downward gap, continued declining and reached the support around the level of 1.3720. Here demand for the euro remains owing to which its rate was able to rebound to 1.3767. Until the ECB announces its decision and Mario Draghi holds the press-conference, the pair could trade within the range, limited by the levels of 1.3720 and 1.3823. Loss of the current support will lead to testing the 1.3643 level.

The GBPUSD Drops Again

The GBPUSD bulls did not attack the 68th figure yesterday. Instead of this the pair reversed, went down and reached 1.6652, and in the Tuesday’s Asian session — 1.6640, where a 10-day MA traversed. Here the pound continues to be bought and it is trying to rise again. The resumption above 1.6700 will lead to testing 1.6750, loss of 1.6640 — to testing 1.6600. While the pair is trading above 1.6640—1.6600, the chances to test the 68th figure remain.

Downside Risks of the USDCHF Remain

Yesterday, the USDCHF traded almost on the spot between the levels of 0.8782 and 0.8820. Later the pair managed to move slightly higher and test the 0.8842 level. Nevertheless, a negative sentiment remains and a decline of the dollar can resume at any time. Technically, the pair should rise higher 0.8900—0.8930 in order to weaken the bearish momentum. Until then downside risks to 0.8568 will remain.

The USDJPY Above 101.59 Again

The USDJPY bears failed to develop a downward trend yesterday. Moreover, they could not consolidate below 101.59. During the whole day the pair traded in a tight range, limited by the levels of 101.20 and 101.59. Today, in the Asian trading session the dollar has broken resistance and rose to 101.59. It is early to speak about uptrend resumption. The dollar should rise above 102.83 to do it, but if it resumes higher, the bearish momentum will be somewhat weaker. Another drop lower will lead to testing 100.68.

provided by IAFT

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Prices for the North American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed near its highest price since September, while Brent crude remained steady as Russia ordered troops to return to Base, according to the Russian news agencies.

Crude prices traded higher on Monday, after Ukraine its army in response to Russia sending its troops to take control of the Crimea peninsula.

Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles, including heating oil and diesel, probably declined by 1 million barrels in the last week, according to analysts before the Energy Information Administration report due on Wednesday.

The West Texas Intermediate Crude for April delivery was at 0.82% to $104.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Tuesday, the highest level since September.

While Brent crude for April settlement dropped below $111 per barrel on Tuesday on the ICE Future Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $6.49 to WTI.

WTI – US Crude Supplies

The North American WTI climbed 5.2% higher in the previous month as the freezing weather in the US  boosted the demand for heating fuels and crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma; the delivery point for the crude.

According to analysts, the US crude inventories probably added 1.15 million barrels in the week ending February 28 before the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report. While Gasoline supplies are forecasted to have dropped by 1 million.

A separate stockpiles report from the American Petroleum Institute is expected to be released later in the day.

Ukraine Crises

On Monday, the crises between Ukraine and Russia; the world’s biggest energy exporter, escalated when the Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the Ukrainian troops the ultimatum to surrender.

The move was broadly condemned by western leaders, as the US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived Kiev on Monday and threatened Russia with visa bans, sanctions, trade restrictions and to remove Russia from the G8.

However, tensions in the markets were eased after the Russian President ordered troops to return to base, the Russian news agencies quoted the Kremlin spokesman’s speech on Tuesday.

Visit www.hymarkets.com   to find out more about our products and start trading today with only $50 using the latest trading technology today

The post WTI Climbs Near Five-Month High; Russia Orders Troops To Return appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Gold prices were seen trading lower on Tuesday after the news that Russia had halted its military and asked its troops to return back to base.

Gold futures for April delivery lost 0.78% to $1,339.80 an ounce on the Comex in New York at the time of writing. While futures for Silver declined 0.96% to $21.260 an ounce.

Gold – Ukraine Crises

On Monday, the crises between Ukraine and Russia escalated when the Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the Ukrainian troops the ultimatum to surrender.

Over the weekend, the Russian president said he had the right to raid his neighbor country Ukraine, to protect Russian citizens and interests in Ukraine.

The move was broadly condemned by western leaders, as the US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived Kiev on Monday and threatened Russia with visa bans, sanctions, trade restrictions and to remove Russia from the G8.

However, tensions in the markets were eased after the Russian President ordered troops that took part in a military exercises during the week to return to base, the Russian news agencies quoted the Kremlin spokesman’s speech on Tuesday.

The move stirred a wave of risk-aversion on the markets, with precious metals slowly rising, as gold futures rose 2.17% an ounce on Monday.

Hedge Funds

Hedge funds bullish bets were boosted by 25% to 113,911 contracts in the week ending February 25, the highest since December 2012, Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports revealed.

Visit www.hymarkets.com   to find out more about our products and start trading today with only $50 using the latest trading technology today

The post Gold Futures Slides From Four-Month High appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

EURUSD: Halts Decline, Recovers Higher.

EURUSD: With EUR halting its Monday losses and triggering a recovery, the challenge is for it to retake the 1.3772 level broken during Monday trading. If eventually this is seen, further gains could occur towards the 1.3824 level, its Feb 28 2014 high. Above here will pave the way for a run at the 1.3893 level, its Dec 27 2013 high. A turn above here will expose the 1.3950 level and next the 1.4000 level. On the downside, support lies at the 1.3720 level with a violation of here targeting the 1.3698 level, its Feb 28 2014 low where a break will turn focus to the 1.3642 level , its psycho level. A cut through here will aim at the 1.3561 level, its Feb 12 2014 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

Article by www.fxtechstrategy.com

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for March 4^th, 2014

DJIA Index

It looks like Index is still being corrected; wave [2] is taking the form of flat pattern inside wave [2]. In the near term, price may continue falling down inside wave (C) and break minimum of wave (A).

More detailed wave structure is shown on H1 chart. It looks like Index is forming diagonal triangle pattern inside wave (C). On minor wave level, price completed the second wave and is expected to start the third one, which may take the form of zigzag pattern.

Crude Oil

Oil continues moving inside ascending trend. Yesterday, market reached my Take Profit, and I’m keeping my buy order. Instrument is expected to continue forming ascending impulse inside wave C in the nearest future.

As we can see at the H1 chart, Oil is completing the fourth wave. Earlier, price extended the third wave: it formed diagonal triangle pattern inside its fifth wave. Instrument is expected to start new ascending movement inside wave (5) of [5] during the day.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for March 4^th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After reaching the first group of fibo-levels, Eurodollar started new correction. Probably, right now market is starting growing up towards the next target, which is at level of 1.3875. If pair rebounds from it, I may start selling.

As we can see at H1 chart, pair rebounded from local level of 50%. Earlier, price reached its target at level of 1.38 right inside temporary fibo-zone. Probably, market may reach upper levels by the end of this week.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc rebounded from lower border of its target area and right now is being corrected. However, main trend is still bearish and price may yet continue falling down. Main target is near several fibo-levels at 0.8715.

At H1 chart we can see, that price reached channel’s lower border and started new correction. Possibly, market may test local level of 50% in the nearest future. If price rebounds from it, pair may start new descending movement.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.