Month: March 2014

By MoneyMorning.com.au

The talk around the coffee machine in the Money Morning office has been focused almost solely on one thing: The World War D conference starting this Monday.

I’m excited. In fact, I think we all are.

You see, while we take the time each day to share our thoughts, ideas and projections with you by email, we very rarely get to do that in person. And I know our editors have some very special and perhaps even radical ideas up their sleeve for this conference.

If you can’t make it, don’t worry. We’ve got you covered. You can place a pre-order for the DVD of the event here at a 25% discount. Also, throughout the week we are going to share some of the ideas presented during the two day talk fest.

In addition, of course, we’ll take advantage of social media. If you haven’t already added our Twitter handle @MoneyMorningAU, make sure you do.

So, what can you expect?

The thing is, I’m just not sure…

Most of the editors have kept their presentations under wraps, with only the compliance guy getting a look in. I was helping Nick Hubble, editor of The Money for Life Letter run some statistical data for what our future population might look like. The end result? Two charts which move in opposite directions!

Considering The Money for Life Letter is an alternative newsletter for your twilight years, the results could be terrifying.

Aside from our own editors, we have some incredible speakers presenting. Two of the presenters, Dr Marc Faber and Satyajit Das, are widely known for their out-of-the-box thinking. These two are the statistical outliers. The voices you don’t get to hear in the mainstream press.

And if they do get a guernsey on prime time, it’s rarely taken seriously. Often you’ll find it’s only when something they’ve predicted actually happens, that someone in the mainstream will dig out a quote from them – generally from years ago. The TV presenters will reluctantly agree that yes, event A or event B was predictable.

However, World War D isn’t our gloomy report about the global economy. It’s about a transition to a new economy and how to prepare for it.

‘It’s as sound as a dollar‘

That’s a line from the movie Cat on a Hot Tin Roof. And while the almighty American dollar might have been sound then, it ain’t now.

In 1958, even though gold prices were only USD$35 per ounce, every dollar in the United States was backed 10% by gold. Today, there is nothing backing the dollar except the word of the US government. But that’s OK because we’re not on a gold standard anymore, right?

When the US dollar was still on a gold standard in 1958, the M2 money supply was US$285 billion. Now, it’s US$11,112 billion. In the same period, the gold reserves for America have dropped from 18,291 tonnes to 8,137 tonnes.

Look at this way. The total money supply of America is now 38 times higher, while the amount of gold held has shrunk to less than half.

Why do I bring this up? Because the US dollar’s not sound.  The growth in credit and money supply, and shrinking gold stockpiles isn’t conclusive proof of this. But it does help explain just how out of balance things are.

The mammoth credit and fiat currency experiment is nearing an end. Moreover, there must be something else to take its place.

But what?

This is what the presenters will discuss at the World War D conference on Monday. Next week, I should be able to shed some light on how our presenters think our currency system will change. And what digital money will mean for you.

In the meantime, have a great weekend. I hope to see you at the conference.

One last thing. The same year US gold reserves started to fall and credit started a slow expansion, the very first microchip was developed. Coincidence, maybe?

Shae Smith+
Editor, Money Weekend

Ed Note: World War D starts on Monday! Marc Faber, Jim Rickards, John Robb, Satyajit Das, Byron King and Richard Duncan – six of the brightest minds in global finance – are about to descend on Melbourne. If you can’t make it don’t worry. We’ll be live tweeting the event throughout the two days. To get a blow-by-blow breakdown of everything happening at World War D follow us on Twitter now @MoneyMorningAU and to see the event from Technology Analyst Sam Volkering’s point of view, follow him at @techinsider_sv.

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

By CentralBankNews.info
    Trinidad and Tobago’s central bank maintained its repurchase rate at 2.75 percent but said it would be intensifying its liquidity management operations in the coming period to reduce excess liquidity in the banking system that is keeping domestic treasury rates low.
    The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, which last cut its rate by 25 basis points in 2012, said underlying inflationary pressures remain well contained but are likely to build up later in the year as economic activity ramps up.
    “In light of these circumstances, the Central Bank has decided to maintain the ‘repo’ rate at 2.75 percent while its liquidity absorption measures take effect. The Bank will continue to monitor developments in the market and is prepared to take further actions as appropriate,” the bank said.
    Liquidity eased in January before rising again in February to March, with average excess liquidity up to US$ 7.1 billion in the March 5-24 period as fiscal injections rebounded. Open market operations and central bank sales of foreign exchange to dealers withdrew $893 million in January, $831 million in February and $395 million in the first three weeks of March.
    The domestic foreign exchange market remained relatively tight in February and most of March, with purchases of foreign currency by authorized dealers from the public of $691 million and sales of $872 million, with the resulting gap of some $181 million met by central bank sales to dealers.
    On March 5, the central bank undertook a special intervention of $50 million to meet immediate US dollar, trade-related demand of small and medium enterprises.
    High liquidity has kept short-term treasury rates low, with the interest rate differential between the TT and 3-month US Treasury rates at 1 basis point in mid-March. Longer term U.S. Treasury rates rose following the U.S. Fed announcement on March 19 that policy rates could increase even faster than initially anticipated, the central bank said.
    As a result, the differential between TT and US 10-year treasury yields widened to minus 12 basis points as of March 21 from minus 3 points at the end of February, it added.
    Trinidad and Tobago’s inflation rate rose to 3.9 percent in February from 2.9 percent in January, but was down from 5.6 percent in December 2013.

     http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb

By WallStreetDaily.com

Joko, Joko… He’s our man. If he can’t do it, no one can! Eager voters and investors are looking to the 2014 Indonesia elections as the economy’s saving grace. With hopes for a better economy, optimism is at an all-time high.

But before piling all of your cash into the market, wait one minute. Breakingviews’ Andy Mukherjee tells Reuters’ Tara Joseph exactly why…

Joko isn’t the Savior

Tara Joseph says, “While many emerging markets are floundering, Andy, let’s take a look at Indonesia. The Jakarta stock market is up 10% so far this year. Analysts and investors are pretty excited about the upcoming election. There’s a new guy on the block. People think it’s going to herald a big change. His name is Joko Widodo, better known as Jokowi. Is it really going to change things, though?”

Andy Mukherjee says, “Well Tara, what I am arguing is that the election may not answer the investors’ prayer – and probably because investors are being a tad too optimistic. Mind you, I’m not forecasting a drop in share prices in the near term. What I am saying is that the reform expectations were equally high with President Yudhoyono 10 years ago. But those reforms never really materialized.

“Now Indonesia… [what] we must accept is a messy parliamentary democracy. Now to pin hopes on one man, even if he’s the president, can lead to eventual disappointment however well-meaning Jokowi might be. What will be important, therefore, is just what kind of control in parliament his party – Jokowi’s party, the PDIP – will have. Now that we will come to know next month.”

Take a Lesson From India

Tara Joseph says, “Politics – interesting, important. Joko – a very populist man who might change things if he’s elected. But commodities, that’s what it’s about in Indonesia when it comes to the economy. And we all know that China’s slowing down, so demand is shifting as well. It does beg the question [of] why Jakarta stocks are so high.”

Andy Mukherjee says, ”Yes, Tara. Now Chinese demand is indeed important, and it is indeed slowing – Chinese demand for commodities, that is – and Indonesia, which is a major exporter of minerals, of palm oil, and coal and other commodities. Now it can’t really rely on domestic consumption, which has supported more than 40% of GDP growth in recent years, because you simply can’t do that for any length of time without investments.

“And India is a good case study because India tried to do just that, and then it floundered. Because what happens is that when you do that, you basically prop up consumption with wage growth running faster than productivity growth, and that’s inflationary. And we do know that, just like in India, inflation expectations in Indonesia, too, aren’t always well anchored. So improving the investment climate – I beg your pardon – is absolutely essential.”

Don’t Throw All Your Eggs in One Basket

Tara Joseph says, “Well let’s keep an eye on this. Elections [are] coming up in Indonesia. It’s one of the hottest emerging stock markets right now, but there are some key issues that investors should beware of.”

Before adding those few extra pennies into Indonesia’s bucket, wait and consider the possibilities. No signs show that Indonesia is “on the rocks” per se, but there’s also no proof… in fact, it’s unlikely, that one man can give the Indonesian market the boost its voters so greatly desire. But, by the looks of public sentiment, Joko, the pressure’s on!

The post Investors Shouldn’t Bet on Indonesia Election appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Investors Shouldn’t Bet on Indonesia Election

Source: Peter Byrne for Streetwise Reports’ Special Situations (3/27/14)

http://www.streetwisereports.com/cs/special/print/na/15917

And now a word from Europe: Investment advisor and author Alfred Maydorn publishes the Maydornreport in Kulmbach, Germany, where he researches disruptive high-tech companies with great growth prospects. In this interview with Streetwise Reports’ Special Situations, Maydorn reveals his top North American picks in the exponentially expanding media and big data spaces, highlighting firms with low profiles, remarkable products and what look to be explosive futures.

Special Situations: The ability to introduce technological innovations that disrupt established markets has long been a hallmark of capitalist success, as new firms with cutting-edge technologies overtake older, less-nimble companies tied to outmoded systems. What are some notable examples of innovations that have changed the way information and data services are sold?

Alfred Maydorn: The major technological transformation of our time is in how information is created and distributed on the Internet. Within that historic disruption there continue to be multiple disruptions and opportunities for gutsy investors. Never forget that Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN:NASDAQ) and Google Inc. (GOOG:NASDAQ) began as small, disruptive start-ups. These companies are now e-commerce giants, rivaling Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT:NYSE) for market share.

Another disruptive innovation in information technology was the advent of the smartphone, which, incidentally, was not developed by a small company. It was invented by Apple Inc. (AAPL:NASDAQ) and launched in 2007, with incredible results. At the time, cell phones manufactured by BlackBerry Ltd. (BBRY:NASDAQ) and Nokia Corp. (NOK:NYSE) dominated the talk and texting industry. It did not take long for the iPhone to take over and spawn countless imitators.

Apple brings to mind a great example of disruption in the high-tech realm: the film industry. Pixar was cofounded by Steve Jobs when he left Apple—temporarily, as it turned out. Risking all its capital, Pixar entered the multibillion-dollar film business market with a fresh technology, and quickly produced major motion pictures that captivated audiences. At the time, The Walt Disney Co. (DIS:NYSE) was a big player in the film production space. At first, it took no notice of Pixar. But then Disney not only noticed, it became very afraid and, in the end, it bought Pixar at a premium.

Large or small, a truly innovative company will risk everything to fundamentally disrupt the status quo with a breakthrough product. The smaller firms are usually more eager to challenge the status quo, since they have nothing to lose.

SS: Speaking of Pixar, filmmakers are increasingly dependent upon using the latest developments in advanced graphics technology, such as three-dimensional technology (3-D), to make the next blockbuster even more spectacular than the last one. What companies are realizing success in the virtual-reality creative space in Hollywood?

AM: Because moviegoers absolutely love special effects, the film industry is focusing more on creating snazzy, spectacle-filled shows with state-of-the-art computers. The 3-D film business is growing fast, and several small, specialized companies in this space are gaining market share.

For instance, Gener8 Media Corp. (GNR:CNX) is a Vancouver-based company that works in 3-D for most of the big Hollywood studios. Its proprietary software, G83D, can transform two-dimensional (2-D) movies into 3-D movies after the film is shot. It can also enhance the quality of films originally shot in 3-D format. Gener8 essentially created the content of The Amazing Spider-Man and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 inside its computers.

SS: Would Gener8 be able to take a movie like, say, Gone with the Wind and turn it into a 3-D film?

AM: Yes. Even large parts of new movies are filmed in 2-D and then converted to 3-D. It typically takes six months to turn a 2-D film into 3-D, working scene by scene, frame by frame. It requires a lot of human sweat and advanced technology, but the final product is worth it, since 3-D is the future of film entertainment.

SS: Given its massive computational abilities, is Gener8 able to diversify into other types of technology markets?

AM: Gener8 recently started up a new division specializing in visual effects called The Feder8tion. The company already employs 200 people, and is growing very fast. It is based in Vancouver, where many film companies are relocating because of the well-educated people who live there. Gener8 is constantly hiring programmers to keep up with the increasing demand for its services. And it is branching out into other functions in the big data field.

SS: Please explain what you mean by big data.

AM: Gener8 was originally set up to focus on 3-D film technologies, which require huge amounts of data to generate every scene. It invented special big data software to make sense of very large, cinematic, pixelated data sets. It turns out that this software can also be used for other businesses, which is very exciting. Thus, Gener8’s second venture is building big data software for a variety of business applications. It has entered the cloud-based data management business with its Cumul8 product. The cloud is taking over the information world as we speak.

SS: Wikibon author Jeff Kelly estimates that the total market for big data will be $47 billion ($47B) by 2017. How much of a role will this part of the business have in moving Gener8’s stock forward?

AM: Gener8’s big data software business could be even bigger than its bread-and-butter 3-D business. Big data is an exponentially growing market because society generates so much new information every day. The trick is not so much about collecting this data; the disruptive issue is to be able to analyze data to find meaningful behavioral patterns. Gener8’s patented software performs this task within a convenient user format.

A lot of companies are in the business of developing big data analytics, but the space is growing so fast there are seemingly no limits to growth for true disrupters. For a lot of tech guys, big data has become their sole obsession.

SS: What attracts you to a particular start-up company in this arena?

AM: In the end, only a few start-ups will get really big. The current situation with big data is comparable to the first days of the Internet. In the late 1990s thousands of companies were competing for market share, but only a few survived the shakeout of 2001. It will be the same in the big data business.

SS: What is the key to survival?

AM: To survive, a junior firm needs a great product—a unique, disruptive, saleable and friendly product. Gener8’s big data software is not only powerfully competent, it is user friendly.

SS: Gener8 has a corporate interest in Reelhouse Media Ltd., an online entertainment distribution start-up. How does Reelhouse compare to giants like Netflix Inc. (NFLX:NASDAQ) and Redbox, which is owned by Outerwall Inc. (OUTR:NASDAQ)?

AM: Reelhouse is Gener8’s third business, existing alongside its big data and the 3-D/special effects lines. It owns a 66% share of Reelhouse, which is an online movie platform. Reelhouse is not directly competing with Netflix, Amazon, Hulu LLC (private) or the other platforms. It started out presenting small, private, independent movies for online streaming, and now it has a pilot project with Warner Bros. and a working pay-to-watch model.

The Reelhouse concept is unique because it allows customers to not only watch movies, but also extras, such as special scenes and interviews with the stars. It is a flexible platform that allows the big studios to market their movies online, which they had tried to do on their own unsuccessfully. The basic idea is to grow Reelhouse’s market share, and then sell it to a big studio for a profit.

SS: Is Gener8’s customer base international?

AM: The company has plans for Reelhouse to broaden internationally, and it also plans for the big data component to go international. But Gener8 is currently focused on North America, except for the 3-D business, where it is working very closely with a Chinese partner. China is poised to be one of the biggest markets for 3-D movies, so that is a really good combination.

SS: Will Reelhouse and Gener8 play the same kind of disruptive role in the film business that, say, iTunes played in the music business?

AM: iTunes is focused on promoting the interest of Apple, as we all know. And Apple wants 30% of the revenues. The big film studios want their own online distribution platform, and Reelhouse could be the solution that they seek.

SS: Any business with a retail consumer base needs to parse the big data tied to their customers’ purchasing behaviors. Vast streams of mobile data have overwhelmed the ability of cyberspace to extract useful information from white noise. Are you following any firms using new technological innovations to collect, sort, tag and visualize these mammoth data sets?

AM: I follow them avidly. A lot of junior companies are in the big data space because the big, established companies are not eager to disrupt themselves. I particularly like Splunk Inc. (SPLK:NASDAQ), which went public two years ago. Its stock price doubled on the first trading day, to $34. Splunk stock is now worth about $74/share. Splunk is a fast-growing company—valued at an amazing $7.9 billion—and investors are paying a high valuation for it. That valuation is about 20x its annual revenue.

SS: What is so special about Splunk that it has attracted all of this capital?

AM: Splunk is tech-focused. It is not so much concerned with data presentation issues as it is with discovering new ways to analyze unfathomable numbers of data points. It is an expensive stock, but well worth buying.

SS: Are there firms similar to Splunk in North America?

AM: Two highly valued juniors in the space are Tableau Software Inc. (DATA:NYSE) and Qlik Technologies Inc. (QLIK:NASDAQ). The valuations of these companies are also very high. Tableau is valued 16x this year’s revenue, and Qlik is valued at 5x revenue. Tableau is still not profitable, and the 2014 price/earnings ratio of Qlik is more than 100.

The best way to think about this special situation with big data is that people who invest in a wide range of the newest information technologies are positioning themselves to make a lot of money when one or several of the smaller firms finds its feet and becomes a Splunk, Tableau or Qlik.

SS: Is there still room for Splunk, Tableau or Qlik stock to move up?

AM: Splunk, Tableau and Qlik are not cheap, but they are also not overvalued. On the other hand, Amazon has been overvalued for the last 16 years. And its stock is up 5,000%. In the end, if an investor wants to make money in this fast-growing space, he or she has to take on some high valuations alongside the riskier but cheaper companies.

SS: Are these firms paying dividends?

AM: Most of the smaller companies of this type are not generating profits right now. It is like in the old days of the Internet. This is a thought worth repeating: Some companies will survive, and will make big money for early investors, and some companies will disappear in the inevitable shakeout.

SS: Who are the primary customers for young firms inventing and developing power apps to negotiate the oceans of big data collected every hour by billions of interlinked devices located all over the planet?

AM: The big e-commerce companies are most in need of the new technologies that start-ups are developing. They want to analyze the kinds of products and services people are looking at in definite places and at specific times. For instance, the ability to crunch big data allows the large e-marketers to target special offers to people at the point of purchase.

But the applications for big data platforms are endless. For example, mining companies can collect and analyze immensely complicated, nonlinear data about drilling operations to better predict pay-offs. And nonprofit organizations engaged in social engineering are jumping to purchase big data analytics and cloud-based data platforms. Governments everywhere are contracting with companies that can provide big data services. And so is the military. Not to mention the National Security Agency.

In short, all business pursuits need software to parse and model growing streams of data, or they will be left behind. Information is the oil of the 21st century, and the trick is to learn how to drill for it quickly and profitably. In the end, there is so much space for young companies to grow in this market that a truly innovative and disruptive technology is almost guaranteed success.

SS: What about applying big data technologies in the life science sector, such as investigating the huge data sets in cancer-related genetics? Is there an opening there for the smaller companies?

AM: Yes. A huge opportunity lies ahead in medical research, as you can well imagine. Also in healthcare. Doctors are getting much better about computerized record keeping. Thousands of hospitals across the country generate incredible amounts of information about their clients, which can be invaluable for research if it can be collected, collated and patterned into user-friendly formats.

SS: Are there any other companies that you would like to bring to our attention today?

AM: Frankly, while there are a lot of private companies in the big data space, there are not many public companies available at this time, although that will change. The big plays right now are comparable to Splunk, Qlik and Tableau. Gener8 is a real find. It is an established 3-D company that is branching out as a big data start-up.

Big companies are working hard to find their market niches in this space. Amazon is very active in the cloud arena, as are EMC Corp. (EMC:NYSE) and International Business Machines Corp. (IBM:NYSE). But the young, dynamic companies, like Gener8, have the potential to truly disrupt the status quo and become the next Apple.

SS: How much longer will Gener8 stock remain cheap?

AM: Gener8’s current valuation is for its core 3-D business, and its big data business is getting a free ride. If the big data unit gets really big for Gener8, which is a real possibility, the company will be a fantastic growth story. But it is still in a very early stage compared to its potential. It is clearly a worthwhile play.

SS: Thank you, Alfred, for your expertise.

AM: You are welcome.

Alfred Maydorn is a German journalist and newsletter writer. He began writing about the stock market 20 years ago and is the cofounder of Der Akionär. With a weekly circulation of about 40,000, it is Germany’s top-selling stock magazine. In his own newsletter, Maydornreport, he focuses on fast-growing technology stocks, mainly from North America. Maydorn appears regularly on German financial television as a stock market expert.

DISCLOSURE:

1) Peter Byrne conducted this interview for Streetwise Reports’ Special Situations and provides services to Streetwise Reports’ Special Situations as an independent contractor. He or his family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of Streetwise Reports’ Special Situations: Gener8 Media Corp. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services or as sponsorship payment.

3) Alfred Maydorn: I or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I personally am or my family is paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview.

4) Interviews are edited for clarity. Streetwise Reports does not make editorial comments or change experts’ statements without their consent.

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CAD/CHF followed through on the bullish tone set last week. The first major hurdle was the combination between the resistance at 0.7930 and the trendline based on the most recent swing highs. The makings of a new higher high lead to a serious bullish acceleration and the 200 Simple Moving Average on the 4H timeframe was crossed without any rejections whatsoever. A second previous high was also exceeded during the first half of the European session, as CAD/CHF climbed as high as 0.8084.

After such a strong rally, a pull back was inevitable, and the weight of the resistance around 0.8060 eventually took its toll. This area is confluence to previous lows from February, a trendline dating back to November 2013, 100 SMA on the Daily timeframe and multiple fibonacci retracements lines, including 0.8059 (61.8% between 0.8218 – 0.7803) and 0.8082 (38.2% fibonacci retracement between 0.8534 and 0.7803).

The current retracement has stopped just above the 0.8000 handle. A daily bar close below 0.8030, which looks extremely probable at this point, will lead to the formation of a Pin bar price action pattern on the Daily timeframe. This bearish signal would suggest the retracement will continue next week if price will manage to break below today’s low.

The first support below 0.8000 is very near, since the 200 SMA on the 4H chart and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on this bullish upswing are clustered near 0.7977. Even lower, the resistance at 0.7928 could flip and act as a pivot zone, providing support for the . CAD/CHF will remain bullish as long as the search for a higher low remains confined by the levels we’ve previously mentioned.

Towards the upside 0.8218 is the first important pivot zone, followed by 0.8333.

*********
Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

By CentralBankNews.info
    Zambia’s central bank raised its policy rate by a further 175 basis points to 12.0 percent on persistent inflationary pressures and said it expects “the passthrough effects from the depreciation of the exchange rate will impact on inflation.”
    The Bank of Zambia, which has now raised its rate by 225 basis points this year after raising it by 50 basis points in 2013, added that the increase in the supply of select food items in the coming harvest should have a moderating impact on inflation.
    “The Committee expects that this adjustment (to policy rates) to buttress the measures implemented in the recent past and consequently contribute to moderating inflationary pressures,” the bank said.
    Zambia’s inflation rate rose to 7.7 percent in March, up from 7.6 percent in February and the fifth consecutive month of rising inflation.
    Last month the central bank said the rate rise and recent increases in reserve ratio to 14 percent from 8 percent should help put inflation on the path toward the bank’s 2014 target of 6.5 percent.
    Zambia’s kwacha currency has been depreciating since late October due to lower copper prices – which account for some 60 percent of the country’s exports – in reaction to slower growth in China.

    The kwacha’s exchange rate has been volatile this month, hitting a low of 6.43 to the U.S. dollar on March 20 compared with 5.83 end-February. Today it was trading at 6.21, down 11.3 percent this year.
   In January the central bank held an emergency meeting with lenders to examine the decline in the currency and on March 6 the bank issued a statement, saying it was continuing to pursue a flexible exchange rate policy, but this did not imply the absence of intervention by the bank in response to “disorder and panic among market participants.”
    The central bank attributed the decline in the currency to a combination of domestic and international market developments with the growing integration of the country in the world economy having the effect that it is affected by foreign developments.
    “Specifically, the Federal Reserve’s course of action has led to fears of slower growth of major emerging economies, particularly China,” the bank said, and as a consequence the price of copper has remained subdued and there has been a slowdown in portfolio flows that help finance the country’s current account deficit.
     “The Bank observes at this stage that panic has gripped market participants, thereby undermining the smooth operation of the foreign exchange market. Left unattended to, such panic sentiments might eventually undermine the Banks efforts of delivering low an stable rates of inflation,” the bank said.
    On March 13 the bank said it had sold $178 million of foreign exchange to moderate the currency’s volatile exchange rate.

    http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb

By Chris Vermeulen – ETF Trading Newsletter

The bitter truth about what may happen to gold is not all that exciting and likely don’t want to know, but you need to understand what is unfolding as we speak…

Long story short, the prices of bonds look as though they are about to rally once again. Mounting fears of a stock market correction has money flowing into bonds which in turn will drive interest yields lower yet gain. But the BIG PICTURE of what he FED said the other week about how they plan to raise rates in 2015 and cut QE down to $55 billion per month hurts the long term outlook for gold.

This news may not sound that important, it actually is and undermines the price of miners, silver and gold in a big way.

Find out why gold is falling and the threat that could trigger a much larger meltdown in the long run with my gold forecast video.

Chris Vermeulen

ETF Trading Newsletter

By CentralBankNews.info
     Romania’s central bank maintained its policy rate at 3.5 percent, as expected, and said its latest assessment confirms that inflation should remain subdued in the months ahead, in line with the bank’s forecast that inflation will return to and remain inside the bank’s tolerance range.
    The National Bank of Romania (NBR), which last month cut its rate for the sixth time in a row, said the risks in its outlook stem primarily from external sources. This includes capital flow volatility, which  is linked to investors’ risk appetite and driven by geopolitical developments, faster cross-border deleveraging by banks and the overall changes to investors’ exposure to emerging economies.
    Romania’s inflation rate fell to a historic low of 1.05 percent in February from 1.55 percent end-2013, with the average annual HIPC rate, which can be compared with EU countries, declining to 2.6 percent from 2.9 percent in January. In January 2013 the inflation rate hit 6.0 percent.
    Last month the the NBR revised upwards its 2014 inflation forecast to 3.5 percent from 3.0 percent and forecast 2015 inflation of 3.2 percent. The central bank’s vice governor said in New York on Feb. 6 that the central bank had ended its rate cutting cycle.

    The central bank targets inflation of 2.5 percent, plus/minus one percentage point.
    Romania’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 from the third quarter for annual growth of 5.1 percent, up from 4.2 percent.
    The central bank attributed the pick-up in economic activity to a favorable performance of exports and improved domestic demand.
   
    http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb

In the last three months GBP/JPY has formed a large triangle pattern which can be best observed on the Daily timeframe, Price action from the last two weeks has confirmed the validity of the support trendline, which coincides perfectly with the 100-day Moving Average.

A bullish engulfing pattern formed as yesterday’s candle tested the support once more, yet this time the pair rose above the previous highs between 169.55 – 169.70. The afore mentioned resistance  succesfully acted as support throughout the day. For short term traders, this pivot is the new support besides the triangle trendline.

The bullish engulfing pattern will be confirmed if GBP/JPY rises above 170.30 today. This move also puts price above the 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages on the 4H timeframe, adding to the general idea of bullishness. Above 170.30 buyers will set their eyes on 171.34 – 171.60 area, where a confluence between 61.8% fibonacci and four recent swing highs could easily cap further gains. If that doesn’t happen, the triangle resistance is slowly heading towards 173.00 and will represent the secondary resistance.

Failure to achieve new highs will lead to pull-backs towards 170.30 and of course the trendline resistance around 168.80.

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Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

Podcast By Casey Research

Former Comptroller General of the United States David Walker talks about the trouble with Obamacare and the sky-high national debt… how much to spend on national defense… and outlines his top 3 reforms to fix the US government.

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Here are a few highlights:

“America can definitely be made great again. It’s not too late, but what we need is a wakeup call, a call to action and a specific course correction to try to be able to make sure that we don’t repeat history.”

“President Obama promised … that he was going to be a uniter rather than a divider, and unfortunately, he hasn’t done that. Our financial condition today is much worse than when President Obama took office. Frankly, from George Washington, who was our first president, to William Jefferson Clinton, who was our 42^nd president, we only accumulated $5.5 trillion in debt—and now we’re up to $17.5 trillion.”

“The government is going to always do more for the poor, for the disabled, and for the military, but … promises way too much and it subsidizes way too many people, and the result of that is that it creates a system that is unaffordable and unsustainable.”

“What a lot of people don’t realize is built into the Affordable Care Act, is a bailout provision for insurance companies. So that taxpayers are probably going to be on the hook for, you know, some large payments due to meet those guarantees.”