Month: March 2014

The S&P500 found support yesterday around 1853, at the lower side of a downward channel that is now pointing higher again as decline from 1187 unfolded only in three legs. A break above the upper trend like will open door for 1900.

S&P500 (Mar 2014) 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

While the S&P is showing bullish structure the USD remains weak. On EURUSD we have seen a nice reaction in this week from 1.3820/40 support that we have been focusing on. Current upward reaction is sharp with no overlaps so we assume that rally is impulsive with room for 1.4000 in sessions ahead. In the meantime, 1.3913 support must not be breached.

EURUSD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

GBPUSD also turned up in the last 24hours after a five wave decline from 1.6783. Pair is already above wave (iv) swing so ideally we have seen a low at 1.6566 figure. In fact , rally from the lows is showing impulsive personality, so looks like pair is heading much higher. A coming intraday retracement will be wave (ii).

GBPUSD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

Written by www.ew-forecast.com

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By CentralBankNews.info
    Indonesia’s central bank maintained its benchmark BI rate at 7.50 percent, as expected, and said it expects inflation to return to its target corridor in 2014 while it cut its economic growth forecast.
    Bank Indonesia (BI), which raised the BI rate by a sharp 175 basis points last year to curb inflation and defend the embattled rupiah currency, also said the balance of trade is expected to return to surplus as exports were accelerating due to strong demand from leading trading partners while imports remain sluggish due to moderating domestic demand.
    “Recent developments indicate that the rate of inflation is under control and the current account deficit is shrinking,” the BI said in a generally upbeat statement.
    Indonesia’s headline inflation rate fell to 7.75 percent in February from 8.22 percent in January in what the BI described as a “dramatic decline,” continuing the gradual decline since July 2013 when it jumped due to a reduction in government fuel subsidies.
    In August inflation hit a 2013-high of 8.79 percent and prices remained under pressure due to the impact of the rupiah’s depreciation along with higher food prices from flooding.
    “The rate of inflation continued to trend downwards in February 2014, reinforcing the prospect of achieving the inflation target in 2014, more specifically 4.5 +/- 1 %, ” the BI said.
    The BI said core inflation in February was under control at 4.57 percent, up from 4.53 percent, and attributed the “impressive gains made in terms of core inflation” to the policy by central and local governments to minimize the second-round effects of recent natural disasters.
    The recent appreciation of the rupiah has also minimized the impact of higher international commodity prices, the BI said, adding it will remain cautious of potential price pressures from changes to administered prices and reinforce the policy mix with the government to ensure inflation remains on track with the inflation target.
    After tumbling almost 21 percent in 2013, the rupiah has bounced back this year and rose 5.18 percent against the U.S. dollar in February from January. This month it has continued to firm, quoted today at 11,379 to the dollar, up from 11,609 end February.
    “Sound economic fundamentals are driving improvements in the external sector performance, which in turn is strengthening the rupiah exchange rate,” the BI said, adding that foreign exchange reserves amounted to US$ 102.7 billion in February, equivalent to 5.7 months of imports and debt servicing.
    A January trade deficit US$ 430 million was due to seasonal factors, the BI said, and it expects the trade balance to return to surplus while the current account deficit is expected to be managed at a level below 3 percent of Gross Domestic Product.
    In the fourth quarter of 2013 the current account deficit narrowed to $4.018 billion from $8.449 the previous quarter and the BI said it expects inflows of foreign capital to escalate as the domestic economy strengthens. Up to February, inflows of foreign portfolio funds to Indonesia’s markets amounted to 34.6 trillion rupiah.
    Indonesia’s economy has slowed in recent months and the central bank said household consumption is predicted to slow compared with its projections due to a limited impact of elections.
    Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product contracted by 1.42 percent in the fourth quarter from the third quarter for annual growth of 5.72 percent, up from 5.62 percent.
    But the growth of investment, including non-construction investment, is projected to rebound in the second quarter while exports will accelerate but not as much as forecast due to tepid global economic growth and the temporary impact of the ban of exports of most mineral ores.
    “Against this backdrop, Bank Indonesia projects the domestic economy to expand by 5.5-5.9%,” the bank said. Previously, the BI forecast 2014 growth in the lower end of a 5.8-6.2 percent range.

    http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb

By fxvm.net

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By James Sheffley

Anyone who suffered through Tom Hanks’s haircut and the many credulity-stretching contrivances of The Da Vinci Code movie- or the slightly less insufferable book (slightly)*- is probably familiar with the “Fibonacci sequence”. The sequence itself is pretty simply: (0),1, 1, 2, 3,5,8,13… Beginning with either zero or one, depending on whom you ask, the sequence is the sum of the two preceding numbers. So 1+1=2; 1+2=3; 2+3=5; 3+5=8; 5+8=13, etc. The importance of the Fibonacci sequence, certainly with regard to Forex trading, is its relationship to phi or the “golden ratio”: 1.618 (roughly). Or, as expressed by Wikipedia, “In mathematics, two quantities are in the golden ratio if their ratio is the same as the ratio of their sum to the larger of the two quantities.”

Clear as mud, right? Well, consider it this way: further up the Fibonacci sequence one gets, the closer to 1.618 two quantities get, if a quantity in the sequence is divided by its predecessor. So, 1/1=1; 2/1=2; 3/2= 1.5; 5/3=1.6666; 8/5=1.6, and so on (233/144= 1.16180555). The golden ratio has gained a historical air of universal importance by way of its (arguable) applicability to a great number of disciplines and apparent presence in nature.

Based in large part on the work of mathematician and philosopher and Adolf Zeising, the golden ratio has been found expressed in the positions of branches from plant stems; veins in leaves; swirls in nautilus shells, pinecones, the tops of poppy pods, flowers (some flowers supposedly only grow petals in Fibonacci-consistent groups- 13, 21, 34 etc.); the geometry of crystals; in the proportions of the human body; even, according to a 1991 scientific study, expressed in the structure of the human genome.
Image Courtesy of the University of Surrey, UK

And for hundreds of years the Fibonacci sequence and golden ratio have been employed for their (presumed) aesthetic and practical value by artists, musicians, scientists, architects, publishers, designers, mathematicians, mystics, writers, inventors, philosophers, etc. Everyone from Leonardo Da Vinci; Bartok; Salvador Dali; Plato; Euclid and Keppler to Maynard James Keenan, frontman of contemporary bands Tool and A Perfect Circle, have looked to the golden ratio for guidance and inspiration.

As such, the sequence and ratio have both been attributed an air of mystery (and mysticism), elegance and even spirituality. It’s that assumption of influence, gravity and the immutability of its significance to our world that has inspired a sizable chunk of Forex enthusiasts to apply Leonardo Fibonacci’s numeric secret and its captive ratio. So how is this done?

Well, there are some variations but far and away the most common system is “Fibonacci Retracement” (FR). If you were looking at a graph of a currency pair’s movements, FR involves plotting a diagonal “trendline” between an extreme high and an extreme low, and then using the phi- and Fibonacci-friendly percentages- 0%, 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100% as horizontal line positions cutting through the trendline. It’s at or near these lines that price fluctuations are predicted to meet following a price’s big dip or climb.
Image Courtesy of Investopedia

The opportunity to chart these fluctuations as predictably consistent according to those earlier-mentioned Fib-friendly percentage lines would, of course, mean great profits if FR is a method that works. Whether or not it works is grist for another article, although the general-ish consensus among forex experts seems to be: FR works; FR doesn’t work; or FR works some when combined with more traditional forms of analysis, maybe. Hopefully that clears it up! Kidding aside, the effectiveness of FR is hotly debated and no final word on it looks to be coming any time soon, although even Fibonacci fanatics wouldn’t likely claim that FR is a replacement for all other classes of analysis and a good currency calculator. But if the mysteries of math and money appeal to you, consider reading up on the sexiest ratio and its use on the currency market.

*Apologies to fans of Dan Brown’s book from a Holy Blood, Holy Grail purist.

 About the Author

James Sheffley fancies himself a Jack-of-Some-Trades in the finance game. After graduating from the University of Chicago with a degree in economics, Sheffley began his incredibly lucrative career writing for e-econ blogs. As a sideline, he enjoys a marginally successful career as a stock and forex day (and night) trader. When not firmly ensconced behind his keyboard, Sheffley can be found following in the footsteps of his hero, Sudhir Venkatesh, tracking underground economies.

EURUSD: With EUR following through higher on the back of its Wednesday gains, further strength is likely. Resistance resides at the 1.4000 level where we may see the bears come in and push the pair lower. However, if this fails to occur, further strength could build up towards the 1.4050 level, its psycho level. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.4100 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On pullbacks, support comes in at the 1.3914 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely. Further down, support stands at the 1.3824 level where a break will expose the 1.3772 level. Additionally, support lies at the 1.3685 level followed by the 1.3600 level and then the 1.3561 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside long term.

Article by www.fxtechstrategy.com

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Yellow metal prices were seen trading higher on Thursday, trading to its highest level in nearly six months as the worsening tension between Russia and Ukraine increased haven demand.

Gold futures climbed 0.06% higher to $1,371.40 an ounce at the time of writing, while silver futures edged 0.11% lower to $21.335 an ounce.

Gold has climbed by 14% this year, picking up from the decline of 28% seen last year as the demand for a store of value boosted by the ongoing crises in Ukraine and the growth in China continues to slow down.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index dropped 0.23% lower to 79.421. Holdings at the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust; came in at 811.20 tons on Wednesday, marking the first fall since Feb 19.

Gold – Ukraine Tension

The ongoing tension between Russia and Ukraine over the Crimean region continues as the Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk met with US President Barack Obama to discuss protecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territory.

Ukraine’s Crimea n region is preparing for a referendum on March 16 on joining Russia, while Ukraine and the western nations discussed sanctions on Russia and further repercussions if Russia failed to ease tensions.

Gold – China

Gold traders are also focusing on the world’s biggest gold consumer, China, as reports recently released added concerns over the slowdown of the nation’s economy.

According to the reports released, China’s industrial production grew at a slower pace the period between January – February. Expanding by 8.6% year-on-year, compared to the 9.7% increase seen in the previous month and lower than analysts forecast of a 9.5% rise.

While retail sales edged 11.8% higher on an annual basis, dropping from the 13.1% rise seen in the previous month and compared to forecasts of a 13.5% growth.

Earlier in the week, China reported an unexpected fall in exports, which fell by 18.1% year-on-year in February and a deficit of $23 billion.

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The post Gold Climbs Six-Month High as Ukraine Supports Demand appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

Crude prices were seen climbing on Thursday, boosted by the ongoing tension in Ukraine and the higher global demand for 2014, according to OPEC.

Gains were trimmed by concerns over China’s economy, following the release of the industrial output figures which came lower than expected. The report showed signs of the world’s second largest economy growing at a slower pace and dragged the North American crude below $100.

WTI crude for April traded 0.12% higher to $98.10 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at the time of writing. While the European benchmark Brent crude added 0.20% at $108.23 per barrel at the same time.

Crude – Ukraine Tension

The tension between Russia and Ukraine over the Crimean region continues, as it prepares for a referendum on March 16 on splitting from Ukraine and joining Russia. While Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk met with the US President Barack Obama and the western nations to discuss sanctions on Russia and the protection of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territory.

Crude – OPEC Global Outlook

According to the monthly report released from OPEC, the organization increased its global oil demand growth for a second month in a row.

The reports revealed global crude demand will increase by 1.14 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2012, up from the previous forecast of 50,000 barrels per day.

US Crude Stockpiles

Reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday, revealed crude stockpiles increased by 6.2 billion barrels in the previous week, compared to analysts estimates of 2.2 million barrels.

While supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI contracts, declined by 1.34 million barrels to 30.8 barrels.

Distillate stockpiles, including heating oil and diesel fell by 533,000 barrels to 113.9 million.

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The post Crude Prices Climbs; OPEC Raises Global Outlook appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Investors who participate in crude oil trading should pay close attention to the recent news about the United States’ supply. According to Bloomberg, the supply surged, which brought West Texas Intermediate crude to a one-month low.

Crude stockpiles jumped 6.18 million barrels this past week, which was much higher than the estimate of 2 million by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. This forced WTI to trade below $100 for a second day.

“The overall gain in crude stocks is pretty negative,” Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, told Bloomberg. “That’s a huge build. Crude will probably go down to $95 and find a bottom there.”

Rich Ilczyszyn, chief market strategist and founder of Litrader.com in Chicago, told Bloomberg that the larger than expected U.S. supply adds to the bearish thesis surrounding crude oil. He added that the market was “way overdone at $104.”

With a surging supply, the U.S. is planning its first sale from the reserve since 1990, according to Reuters. The Department of Energy is expected to sell up to 5 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to test the capabilities of the nation’s emergency stockpile.

“Due to the recent dramatic increase in domestic crude oil production, significant changes in the system have occurred,” department spokesman Bill Gibbons said.

Investors will want to pay close attention to what the U.S. does with its oil supply, and if it continues to increase it will have an impact on crude prices moving forward.

The post Oil Falls as US Supplies Increase appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for March 13^th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Euro is moving upwards; market has broken another consolidation channel upwards and continues growing up. We think, today price may reach level of 1.3990, stat new correction, and then continue its ascending movement towards level of 1.4100.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Pound is moving inside consolidation channel; market has reached minimum of this correction. We think, today price may continue moving upwards. However, we should note, that according to main scenario, pair is expected to fall down to reach level of 1.6480 and only after that continue growing up to reach level of 1.7000.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc reached level of 0.8730 and right now is moving downwards. We think, today price may form another consolidation channel near level of 0.8730 and then to continue forming descending structure to reach level of 0.8300.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

Yen is forming reversal pattern for new ascending movement. We think, today price may leave its descending channel; next target is at 104.40. Later, in our opinion, instrument may form another descending structure towards level of 100.00.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

Australian Dollar completed correctional structure and returned to the level where the channel was broken; this movement may be considered as the right shoulder of head & shoulders reversal pattern. We think, today price may form reversal structure, leave this correctional channel, and then continue falling down. Next target is at level of 0.8990.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

Ruble completed another ascending structure. We think, today price may fall down towards level of 35.60, form reversal structure, and continue growing up to reach level of 37.60.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still forming ascending structure towards level of 1377 or even 1380. Later, in our opinion, instrument may fall down towards level of 1352 to test it from above and then continue growing up to reach level of 1490.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for March 13^th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

H4 chart of EUR USD shows bullish tendency within ascending trend. Three Methods pattern, Three Line Break chart, and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm that current trend continues.

H1 chart of EUR USD also shows bullish tendency within ascending trend. Three Methods pattern, Three Line Break chart, and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm current trend.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

H4 chart of USD JPY shows bearish tendency, which is indicated by Harami pattern. Three Line Break chart and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm descending movement.

H1 chart of USD JPY also shows bearish tendency, which is indicated by Three Methods pattern. Closest Window is support level. Three Line Break chart and Heiken Ashi candlesticks indicate that bearish tendency continues.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.