Month: March 2014

GBPUSD: With GBP remaining weak and vulnerable to the downside, further weakness is likely. Support lies at the 1.6567 level with a break turning focus to the downside towards the 1.6500 level, its psycho level. A cut through here will pave the way for a run at the 1.6450 level. Further down, support comes in at 1.6400 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1.6718 level where a breach if seen will set the stage for a run at the 1.6785 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.6822 level with a turn above here opening the door for a run at the 1.6850 level and then the 1.6900 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its downside vulnerability.

Article by www.fxtechstrategy.com

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Crude prices were dragged lower on Tuesday by the ongoing tensions between Ukraine and Russia as the market speculates the US and European Union sanctions against Russia may weigh on oil shipments. While the Northern American benchmark WTI fell for a second day in a row on forecasts that the US stockpiles climbed in the previous week.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined for a second straight session on Tuesday, falling at $98.08 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent for May settlement came in slightly higher but lost $1.97 to $106.24 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest close since February 4.

Ukraine Tensions

Over the weekend, Ukraine’s Crimean region voted to split from Ukraine and Join Russia, however the Ukrainian government and the Western nations considered the referendum illegal, raising fears and concerns of an international backlash with Russia.

On Monday, the Crimean Parliament formally requested to join Russia, as the Russian President Vladimir Putin formally recognized Crimean sovereignty while the US and European Union imposed sanctions against Russian and Ukrainian officials whom the US says are threatening peace and security and officials that are linked to Crimea referendum.

“If Russia continues to interfere in Ukraine, we stand ready to impose further sanctions,” US President Barack Obama stated.

US Crude Stockpiles

Crude inventories in US, the world’s largest oil consumer; are expected to have increased in the previous week by 2.8 million barrels. Meanwhile reports from the American Petroleum Institute are expected to be released later in the day.

The markets are also keeping an eye on the US Federal Reserve’s monthly two-day meeting which will begin later in the day. Analysts are expecting the central bank to continue to trim down its asset purchases further by $10 a month.

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The post Crude Prices Drops on Ukraine Tension Before US Stockpiles Report appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Stocks in Europe were seen trading lower on Tuesday, dragged lower by the developments of the situation Ukraine. While US index futures dropped, while shares in Asia climbed.

The European Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 0.49% to 3,034.15 at the time of writing, while the German DAX declined 0.69% to 9.117.49. At the same time the UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 lost 0.30% to 6,548.11, while the French CAC 40 edged 0.27% lower to 4,260.33.

Stocks – Crimea

Sunday’s referendum showed that 95.5% of the voters in the Crimean region backed leaving Ukraine and joining the Russian Federation, however Ukraine and the Western nations considered the vote illegal. On Monday, the Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order on recognition of Crimea as a sovereign state.

The US and European Union imposed sanctions against Russian officials and threatened further measures.

Germany Confidence

In Germany, a report which showed the investors sentiment for the next six months came in lower than expected, dropping to 46.6 in March compared to the previous figures of 55.7 seen in February, while the Current Situation index came in at 51.3 points, rising slightly from 50 recorded in the previous month. Both reading were forecasted to come in at 52 points.

FOMC Meeting

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee will be meeting for its March policy meeting, which begins later in the day, with analysts expecting the central bank to trim its bond purchases by another $10 billion to $55 billion.

Other News

In Italy, the trade surplus totaled to 3.65 billion euros in January, compared to 3.61 billion seen in the previous month, official data revealed. Analysts forecasted to see a surplus of 2.47 billion euros.

The Spanish government is expected to auction Treasury bills maturing in three and nine months, with a target of 3 billion euros.

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The post Stocks In Europe Trades Lower Amid Weak German Confidence appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By CentralBankNews.info
    Turkey’s central bank maintained its short-term interest rates, including the benchmark one-week repo rate at 10.0 percent, highlighting the upside risks to inflation and repeating that the “tight monetary policy stance will be maintained until there is significant improvement in the inflation outlook.”
    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), which raised its rates by 550 basis points at an emergency meeting on Jan. 28 in response to a sharp drop in the lira currency, said inflation should continue to rise until June although its stance has helped contain inflation expectations.
    Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose to 7.89 percent in February from 7.75 percent, above the bank’s 5.0 percent target.
    In January the CBRT raised its 2014 inflation forecast by 1.3 percentage points, with the lira’s decline accounting for an estimated 0.5 percentage points of the rise and higher taxes for another 0.5 percentage points.
    At that time, the bank also forecast that inflation would ease in the second half of the year, ending the year at 6.6 percent and then stabilizing around the bank’s target by mid-2015.
    The central bank said growth of credit was continuing to slow in the first quarter in response to the tight policy stance, recent macro prudential measures and weak capital flows. Data for the first quarter of 2014 also show that demand was declining while exports should continued to rise, helping to a “significant improvement in the current account in 2014.”

    Turkey’s Gross Domestic Product rose by 0.9 percent in the third quarter of 2013 from the second quarter for annual growth of  4.4 percent, marginally down from 4.5 percent in the second quarter. But unemployment rose to 10 percent in December, the sixth month of higher unemployment.
    Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed to US$ 4.880 billion in January from December’s $8.322 billion.
    Turkey’s lira was hit hard in May 2013, along with many other emerging market currencies, and continued to fall through last year until Jan. 27 this year when it hit a record low of 2.37 to the U.S. dollar. The sharp rate hike helped ease the pressure on the currency, with it bouncing back to trade at 2.22 to the dollar earlier today, still down 3.1 percent this year.
   
    http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb
     

By CentralBankNews.info

• UK shakes up Bank of England with two new deputy governors (Reuters)
• China central bank said to join talks on developer (Bloomberg)
• Central bank says Russia will not impose capital controls (Reuters)
• Philippine central bank says scope to keep rates steady narrowing (Reuters)
• Australia’s central bank saw rates on hold for ‘some time’ (Reuters)
• Fed seen adopting qualitative rate guidance as job market gains (Bloomberg)
• Danish central bank cuts 2014 growth forecast on lower spending (Bloomberg)
• Belka: Polish rates likely to stay flat until end 2014 (WBJ/Bloomberg)
• The Federal Reserve’s interest rate dilemma (Washington Post)
• BoE’s Cunliffe says big banks are still too big to fail (Reuters)

The EURUSD Still Trying to Increase to 1.4000

The EURUSD bulls keep trying to test the psychological level 1.4000. Despite the rather low market activity yesterday, the pair, having retreated from the support level of 1.3879, rose to 1.3947. Here speculators` enthusiasm vanished and the pair slowly retreated to the support at 1.3919. On the whole, prospects of the EURUSD look constructive. It is hardly possible to mention overbought of the pair, so a rise to 1.4000 is quite possible. At the same time the euro does not have any objective reasons for the development of large-scale rally, which casts doubt on its ability to overcome the indicated psychological barrier. The nearest support is at 1.3833-1.3800, the next one is at 1.3720. Since currently there are no reasons to sell the pair actively, then attempts to decline are likely to be limited by the last level.

Downside Risks of the GBPUSD Are High

The GBPUSD continues trading above 1.6600 that preserves constructive perspectives for the pair. Yesterday, a decline to this support attracted interest to buy, and the pound increased to 1.6665. Now pullbacks are limited by the 1.6629 level, where demand still remains. The pair is trading between a 20- day MA and a 50-day MA on a daily chart, which are at the levels of 1.6672 and 1.6585. These levels should be considered as resistance and support. A breakout through one of them will indicate a further direction of the pair. Despite a positive sentiment, downside risks below 1.6600—1.6585 still look high.

The USDCHF Can Continue Declining

Yesterday’s rise in the USDCHF was interrupted at the level of 0.8755, from which the pair fell to 0.8713. Pressure on the dollar persists along with the downside risks to 0.8568. A rise above the 88th figure will weaken the bearish momentum, but only a rise above 0.8900-0.8930 can become confirmation of basis formation and a trend reversal. The main threat to the Franc is the Swiss National Bank, which can intervene to stop growth of the national currency.

The USDJPY Declining Again

Yesterday, the USDJPY corrected after a last week’s decline. Recovery was not marked as large-scale and was limited by the 101.94 level. Today, the dollar returned to the support level 101.59, its breakout will lead to a fall and testing current lows at the 101.20 level. If the bulls can defend support, then they will have an opportunity to return the pair on a growth way. The nearest resistance is at the 101.94 level, the next one is around 102.20-102.60.

provided by IAFT

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for March 18^th, 2014

DJIA Index

Index is still being corrected. Probably, wave [2] is taking the form of zigzag pattern. In the near term, price is expected to finish wave (B) and form another bearish impulse.

As we can see at the H1 chart, Index finished descending impulse inside wave (A). Yesterday bulls completed ascending wave A. In the future, instrument is expected to finish local correction and start moving upwards inside wave C.

Crude Oil

Oil continues falling down inside wave 1. On minor wave level, market is forming the fifth wave, which may be completed during the day. Later instrument is expected to start forming new correction inside wave 2.

More detailed wave structure is shown on H1 chart. On Monday, Oil broke minimum of the third wave. Probably, after finishing local correction, market may continue falling down inside wave [5] of 1.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for March 18^th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from upper target levels, Eurodollar started consolidating. Probably, it nearest future current correction may continue up to level of 50%. If later price breaks, next target will be at level of 61.8%.

As we can see at H1 chart, price reached its upper target levels right inside temporary fibo-zone. Current correction rebounded from level of 78.6%. Possibly, price may break minimum by the end of this week.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc is still moving inside its predicted target area. If price is able to rebounds from these levels, pair may start new correction towards level of 50%.

At H1 chart we can see, price reached lower targets right inside temporary fibo-zone. Possibly, market may stop current consolidation during Tuesday. Closest target is at level of 0.8810.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By WallStreetDaily.com

From time to time, we reach into our WSD Mailbag to address key concerns from our loyal readers. And it’s that time again.

Instead of droning on with my answers, though, I’m cutting right to the chase. No fluff – just the good stuff, if you will. I’m recruiting visuals to help convey the most important information, too.

My hope? That my answers will be informative, instructive and, of course, ultimately profitable. Let me know if I succeed by dropping me a line here.

While you’re at it, send us some fodder for a future WSD Mailbag column. Any and all comments, questions and biting criticisms are welcome. So cue up the Pat Benatar and “hit us with your best shot!”

Sorry, pal. We’re not as rich as we think we are.

While it’s true that household net worth climbed $2.95 trillion in the fourth quarter, most of the increase can be attributed to rising home values and stock prices. Mind you, most of those stocks are held in retirement accounts, too.

Translation: All of our wealth is on paper.

When it comes to spending, we need liquid assets. But when we look at disposable income as a percentage of net worth, the latest reading checks in at 15.6% – the second-lowest level in history.

So it’s clear that we just don’t have a lot of cash on hand right now.

Not unless you’re fronting the capital for me!

It’s true that emerging market stocks are almost universally shunned, which smacks of a classic contrarian set up.

The valuations can’t be beat, either. Take Russian stocks, for instance. They’re trading for less than five times forward earnings. (That’s more than a 70% discount to U.S. stocks.)

However, cheaper prices can always get cheaper still. And we certainly don’t want to fight the downward price momentum.

The good news? We should be getting extremely close to the bottom. At least, based on history.

I say that because during previous crises, whenever price-to-book ratios dipped below 1.5, emerging market stock prices rallied shortly thereafter. And sure enough, we just breached that critical level.

I’ll give you more than one…

Almost no bull market has ever ended with price-to-earnings ratios in the high-teens like they are now.

Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity is finally picking up. As Joshua Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management rightly observes, “It’s rare to see a bear market begin just as the M&A cycle first gets cooking.”

Stocks follow earnings. And guess what? Earnings keep increasing for S&P 500 companies. Fourth-quarter profits increased more than 20% year over year.

Only a handful of people ever correctly predict market tops. So the fact that so many people swear stocks are overvalued is probably a contrarian indicator that we’re not at a top.

In other words, there isn’t much wisdom in crowds.

For more information, check out my colleague Alan Gula’s take on the situation over at our Dividends & Income Daily division.

Because I’m not a sucker! Just because “mom and pop” can suddenly invest in companies typically reserved for venture capitalists doesn’t mean all of these companies will suddenly succeed.

The cold, hard truth is that almost 75% of “hot technology” startups fail.

The reason? Their “hot” product isn’t that hot after all. And all the capital in the world can’t change that.

Because that’s simply not true. In fact, I debunked this widely held myth in April 2013. Here’s some fresh data, though, which should help do the trick (again).

The top five institutional buyers of single-family homes, which include The Blackstone Group (BX), control less than 1% of the entire rental market.

That’s it for today. Don’t forget to send me some more fodder for a future question and answer column here.

Ahead of the tape,

Louis Basenese

The post Five Clues to Unlocking This Week’s Market appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Five Clues to Unlocking This Week’s Market

Article by Investazor.com

The EURUSD broke yesterday the local support and tested the middle line of an up channel. Rejected from there, the price rallied to 1.3945 where it found a resistance. During the past trading hours, can be seen that it moved sideways between the resistance specified earlier and a local support at 1.3917. A break bellow the support could mean another test on 1.3900. A false breakout down or a direct rejection might signal another rally that could target the 1.3965 high.

The post EUR/USD Price Action For March 18 appeared first on investazor.com.