Month: March 2014

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Crude prices were seen rounding up the trading week in the negative territory on Friday, as it heads for a third weekly loss and US crude supplies advanced to the highest level since November.

The North American WTI crude lost 0.59% to $98.31 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at the time of writing. At the same time, Brent crude for May settlement eased 0.36% to $106.07 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark was at $7.77 premium to WTI.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will cut crude exports to the lowest level in nearly two months as refiners from around the world are currently conducting seasonal maintenance, according to reports from Oil Movements.

OPEC is responsible for approximately 40% of global oil supplies and will cut shipments by 620,000 barrels a day to 23.74 million barrels a day in the four weeks to April 5.

Crude – Crimea

On Thursday, the US President Barack Obama imposed sanctions against individuals, officials and Bank Rossiya, which are connected to the annexation of Crimea, while Russia responded by imposing sanctions against the United States by freezing assets and visa bans.

The oilman was one of the 20 individuals added to the list banned from entering the US, with freezing any assets in the country and banned from doing business with any US companies.

The White house said that Washington has an official order which allows it to target the financial, engineering, energy, mining, metal and defense sectors.

Meanwhile the lower house of the Russian Federal Assembly approved the treaty to annex Crimea, while the upper houses are expected to vote on Friday.

US Supplies

The US crude oil stockpiles added 5.9 million barrels in the last week, reports from the American Petroleum Institute confirmed on Tuesday.

While the Energy Information Administration reports showed that crude stockpiles climbed by 5.9 million barrels, compared to the previous week’s figures of 6.2 million barrels.

Distillate fuel supplies, including heating oil and diesel, declined by 3.1 million barrels last week to 110.8 million, the lowest since May 2008. While gasoline stockpiles fell by 1.47 million barrels to 222.3 million.

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The post Crude Prices Extends Losses Amid Rising Supply appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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As the US markets open on Friday, Statistics Canada will release the hotly anticipated Canadian core consumer price index (CPI) (YoY) and CPI (MoM) figures. Consensus expects a dip in the raw figure, from the previous 1.5% to a forecast of 1.0%. If validated, it will represent the first period of slowing consumer prices since October 2013. Similarly, consensus forecasts the core reading at 1.1%, which if validated, will match the lowest reading since January 2013.

The data is particularly significant in light of Bank of Canada Governor Poloz’s recent statement that the next rate change would depend solely on new data. With inflation being one of the most revealing data points on the calendar, any sign of a slowdown would bolster the argument for a near term rate cut.

Take a look at the USDCAD chart:

There looks to be no stopping the USD at the moment. Production, construction, current account and employment data all beat expectations this week, which was then compounded not only by Yellen’s suggestion of a rate cut but also by the come and go risk-off sentiment imposed by the situation in Crimea (how long this latter draws US strength before the buyers switch to Yen or gold is unclear, but at present it remains a bullish dollar force).

The market has likely already priced a certain amount of the rate-cut potential into the USDCAD, but a validation of a slowdown could well be the catalyst behind new highs in the pair. Yellen’s comments broke the pair through in-term resistance on Wednesday to new three and a half year highs, meaning the level to watch will be Thursday’s highs at 1.1277.

A market that continuously makes new highs generally renders any form of traditional technical analysis useless. Every indicator will read overbought and throw up a bearish bias. Do not be fooled! Stick with the trend and take the key levels as they come. As mentioned, the first of these is at 1.1277. A daily close above this level would hint at further upside as we head into the weekend and back out the other side. Such a scenario would bring levels into play that date back as far as 2010, with an initial upside target at 1.1482.

Written by Samuel Rae – Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

Capital Trust Markets is a fully regulated and compliant online Forex Brokerage, offering a flawless trading environment to traders of all types. The world class trading infrastructure – backed up by advanced trading tools and cutting edge trading software and technology – is combined with award winning customer support to provide a highly successful blend of customized trading solutions.

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for March 21^st, 2014

DJIA Index

Index is still being corrected. Probably, wave [2] is taking the form of zigzag pattern with wave (B) being completed inside it. In the future, price is expected to start falling down inside wave (C) of [2].

More detailed wave structure is shown on H1 chart. Probably, right now Index is finishing bullish impulse inside wave C. Most likely, in the nearest future market may start new descending movement inside the first wave.

Crude Oil

After forming bearish impulse inside wave 1, Oil started correction. Current chart structure implies that price may yet continue forming the second wave, but in the beginning of the next week instrument is expected to reverse and start forming the third one.

As we can see at the H1 chart, wave 2 is taking the form of zigzag pattern. I’ve got short-term buy order with close target. Later, after price finishes impulse inside wave [C] and forms initial descending wave, I’m planning to start opening sell orders.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for March 21^st, 2014

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBP USD, Time Frame H4. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are still influenced by “Dead Cross” (1). Ichimoku Cloud is going down (2), Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart, and the price is below the lines. Short‑term forecast: we can expect resistance from W Tenkan-Sen, and decline of the price.

GBP USD, Time Frame H1. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen formed “Dead Cross” (1) below Kumo Cloud; Kijun-Sen and Senkou Span A are directed downwards. Ichimoku Cloud is going down (2), and Chinkou Lagging Span is close the chart. Short‑term forecast: we can expect support from Tenkan-Sen and resistance from Senkou Span A.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAU USD, Time Frame H4. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are influenced by “Dead Cross” (1). Ichimoku Cloud is going down, Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart, and the price is between Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. Short-term forecast: we can expect resistance from D Kijun-Sen, and decline of the price.

XAU USD, Time Frame H1. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen formed “Golden Cross” (1) below Kumo Cloud. Ichimoku Cloud is going down (2) and almost closed, Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart, and the price is inside Kumo. Short‑term forecast: we can expect attempts of the price to stay below Kumo.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By CentralBankNews.info
    Sri Lanka’s central bank maintained its monetary policy stance, as expected, and said inflation is expected to remain in mid-single digits throughout 2014 while economic growth has shifted into “a higher and sustainable growth trajectory.”
    The Central Bank of Sri Lanka, which rejigged its monetary policy framework in January, said that although the outlook for inflation remains encouraging from a demand perspective, it would closely monitor possibly supply disruptions from drought in certain parts of the country.
    Sri Lanka’s headline inflation rate eased to 4.2 percent in February from 4.4 percent in January while core inflation fell to 3.1 percent from 3.5 percent due to subdued demand and improved domestic supply of most food items, the bank said.
    The central bank targets inflation of 4-6 percent this year and 3-5 percent in 2015 and 2016.
    The bank today kept its Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR), which replaced the previous repo rate, at 6.50 percent and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) at 8.0 percent, maintaining the spread in its Standing Rate Corridor (SCR). In 2013 it cut the repo rate by 100 basis points.
    Sri Lanka’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 7.3 percent in 2013, up from 6.3 percent in 2012, as fourth quarter GDP rose by an annual 8.2 percent on the back of a surge in agriculture and industry while services showed some moderation.

    During 2013 the industry sector grew by 9.9 percent, agriculture 4.7 percent and services by 6.4 percent, the bank said.
    In January earnings from exports grew by 23.2 percent year-on-year, sustaining the growth momentum that started in June 2013. Expenditure on imports rose by 7.9 in the same month with the trade deficit narrowing by 5.9 percent to US$ 756 million.
   Gross official reserves rose to $8.0 billion by the end of January, the equivalent of 5.3 months of imports, supported by the proceeds from January’s sovereign bond issue and inflows to the government securities market.
    Credit to Sri Lanka’s private sector by commercial banks slowed in January, growing by 5.2 percent in January from 7.5 percent in December, but the bank said this was largely due to the settlement of short term advances by corporates and a decline in pawning and trade related credit.
    “However, the Monetary Board is of the view that the deceleration of the growth in credit to the private sector is temporary, and going forward, private sector credit is likely to rebound from the second quarter of the year, supported by declining market lending rates, sufficient liquidity levels and increased demand for exports from the advanced economies,” the bank said.
    Earlier this month, Sri Lanka’s treasury secretary told Reuters that interest rates would remain steady for the next two to three months as the banking sector is facing poor private sector credit growth.

    http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Crude prices was seen trading higher on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled that interest rates might increase in 2015 and government reports showed that crude inventories in Cushing dropped for a seventh week.

The North American WTI crude for April delivery advanced 0.14% higher trading at $99.31 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at the time of writing. While the European benchmark Brent crude added 0.14% to $106.00 per barrel at the same time.

Crude – Fed Minutes

On Wednesday, members of the FOMC said it will continue to monitor the growth of the economy to decide when to raise the interest rates, scrapping the pledge tying borrowing costs to a 6.5% unemployment rate.

“The market spilled on the prospect of rates being raised as early as March 2015; something none seem to be positioned for. The end of the asset-purchase program is open-ended and also open to interpretation. On current form, it could be completely unwound in October,” market strategist at IG Evan Lucas wrote in a note on Thursday.

“The market was also caught on the back-foot at the size of the rate rises, with the FOMC moving its medium expectations for the Fed funds rates from 0.75% to 1% by the end of 2015, and from 1.75% to 2.25% by the end of 2016. The market consensus before the meeting was for rates to be at 0.65% by the end of 2015,” he added.

Crude Supplies

Meanwhile supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma; declined by 989,000 barrels last week to 29.8 million barrels, the lowest since January 2012, reports from the Energy Information Administration confirmed.

The reports also showed that total crude inventories increased by 5.85 million barrels to 375.9 million, while the US crude production added 33,000 barrels a day to 8.22 million.

Distillate fuel supplies, including heating oil and diesel, declined 3.1 million barrels last week to 110.8 million, the least since May 2008, according to the EIA reports.

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The post Crude Prices Climbs as Cushing Supplies Falls appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

Gold traded near its lowest in three weeks on Thursday after Federal Reserve policy makers signaled an increase of the bank’s interest rates in the next six months.

Gold futures for April delivery dropped 0.76% lower to $1,331.20 an ounce at the time of writing, while silver futures edged 0.95% lower to $20.630 an ounce at the same time.

Holdings in the world’s largest bullion-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust; came in at 812.78 tons on Wednesday.

Gold – Fed Statement

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee concluded their two-day monthly policy meeting and said it will look at a range of data to determine whether to increase its benchmark interest rate from zero, as the inflation continues to drop below-target.

According to the minutes from the March meeting, Fed policymakers forecasted the benchmark rate, would increase by at least 1% by the end of 2015 and by 2.25% by the end of 2016, as the US central bank announced a further reduction to its monthly bond purchases by another $10 billion to $55 billion.

“The market spilled on the prospect of rates being raised as early as March 2015; something none seem to be positioned for. The end of the asset-purchase program is open-ended and also open to interpretation. On current form, it could be completely unwound in October,” market strategist at IG Evan Lucas wrote in a note.

In China, the world largest gold consumer; volumes for the benchmark spot contract in Shanghai climbed to its highest in three weeks on Wednesday, as metal of 99.99% purity traded $3.95 an ounce.

Gold – Ukraine

The yellow metal climbed by 10% this year as the tension in Ukraine boosted demand for a haven.  Ukraine said it plans to withdraw its troops from Crimea, as the leaders of the European Union are expected to meet in Brussels later in the day to discuss further sanctions on Russia for the annexation of the Black Sea peninsula.

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The post Gold Trades Near Three-Week Low as Fed Forecasts Rate Hike appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

Article by Investazor.com

The support area failed to sustain the price above. EURUSD dropped yesterday all the way to 1.3750 from where it was rejected. Now it seems that bulls are trying to push it back towards the resistance area (ex support formed of the broken trend line and 1.3800/15 zone). Keeping in mind that it is now under the 200 EMA, I would not be surprised to see another drop and a continuation of the down trend. Lower targets would be 1.3750 and 1.3700.

The post EUR/USD Price Action For March 21 appeared first on investazor.com.

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Faced with a falling smartphone market share, Blackberry is doing something interesting: rather than continue to let competitors eat it alive, it’s choosing to cannibalise itself.

Blackberry used to be a dominant player in the world of smartphones, with its practical, sturdy device among the first sophisticated smartphones on the market.

But as Apple and Samsung brought sleek, well designed products to market Blackberry’s market share fell off a cliff: from around 50% in 2009, to just 0.6% by the start of this year.
Blackberry didn’t respond to what consumers wanted, and paid the price.

But that wasn’t the worst of it for Blackberry. While private consumers were changing their taste and preferences, so too was the corporate market.

Companies used to dictate what device their employees could use. Known for its excellent security features, many companies opted to issue employees with a Blackberry.

But ICT departments the world over changed their policies. Now it’s common practice for employers to allow their employees to use whatever device they want. Blackberry’s share of the business device market fell from 30% in 2010 to about 8% in three years.

How Blackberry is changing it’s approach to the smartphone market

Recognising this trend, Blackberry is moving into smartphone management systems.

While employees love the convenience of using their own device for work, it creates a security risk for business and government employers who need to keep commercial information secure.

Blackberry’s strength in this market was always security, so it has stepped in with a device management system that offers multi-device compatibility.

It helps employers keep their sensitive information secure, and allows employees to safely combine personal and business use on the one device.

Blackberry is now the largest provider of smartphone management systems in Australia, with the Australian National Audit Office and professional services company Questas recently adopting the BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10g (BES10).

What makes Blackberry’s latest move so interesting is that this it is accelerating the very trend that killed market share decline: businesses switching to rival devices.

That’s not all Blackberry is doing, either.

Recognising the strong growth of the middle class in emerging economies, they’ve partnered with Foxconn to produce cheap smartphones for those markets.

Their newest product is launching in Blackberry’s biggest market, Indonesia. Retailing for $200US, the Z10 has adopted the trend for larger, video-optimised screens.

It hasn’t abandoned its traditional market—a new Blackberry device, BB10 is also launching—but is pivoting and adapting.

Blackberry is taking lessons from Apple

It’s not the first time we’ve seen this self-inflicted creative destruction.

Consider Apple.

Apple launched the IPod in 2001 and we all know what happened—sales boomed and the company raked in billions.

Having created the IPod, Apple then went about killing it.

They recognised that eventually the smartphones would be capable of storing music and photos, and supersede the IPod. Hence in 2007, the IPhone was born. Like the IPod before it, the IPhone was prettier and easier to use than competitors, and transformed the market.

Apple still makes iPods, but in a much smaller number that shrinks every year. Rather than let competitors eat the iPod alive, Apple did.

Blackberry late in the game—the collapse in market share has brought the company to the brink– but is now adopting the same strategy.

They’re not abandoning their smartphones entirely, but are making other products that will continue to chip away at the phone’s market share.

And that’s what successful companies, especially tech companies, need to do.

Callum Denness
Contributing Editor, Money Morning
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By MoneyMorning.com.au

By MoneyMorning.com.au

The Swiss are famous.

For watches.

For chocolate.

For cheese.

And for their secretive banking system. Or they used to be anyway. That was until the US bullied it into spilling the beans on thousands of private bank accounts.

Now the Swiss have their eyes on a new industry – data security. And like all things Swiss, they don’t plan to do things by halves…

For years people have been worried about cyber security.

You’ve probably got Norton Antivirus or something similar on your PC at home.

Most of the fear was due to the potential for harm from malicious software (malware). Then there was the fear about crooks stealing your credit card or bank account details.

But in recent years the fear has moved on to a new level: the fear of the government spying on everything you do. The fear heightened after Edward Snowden dished the dirt on the US National Security Agency (NSA).

Now consumers and businesses are fighting back…from 913 metres below ground.

Underground Data Protection

Take this from the MIT Technology Review:

‘There is data security, and then there is Swiss data security.

‘The difference was explained to me by Stephan Grouitch in a conference room deep within a mountain in the Swiss Alps, lit by a subterranean buzz of fluorescent lights. To get to here, under more than 3,000 feet of stone and earth, I showed my passport (something I didn’t have to do to enter the country from Germany), had my finger scanned repeatedly, and passed under security cameras and motion detectors. A blast door, thicker than my forearm is long, is said to protect this old Cold War bunker against a 20-megaton bomb.‘

We said the Swiss don’t do things by halves. If you’ve ever seen the inner workings of a fine Swiss watch you’ll know all about their attention to detail.

The same apparently goes for data security, just on a much bigger scale.

The important thing about this story isn’t so much that the Swiss are getting into the market for cyber security. The important aspect is that they feel the need to get into the market.

A few weeks ago German chancellor Angela Merkel even proposed that Europe develop its own internet and email system that didn’t route traffic via servers in the US. As if that will stop the US from snooping.

But again, it’s symbolic that the German chancellor would even publicise such a position.

And even more importantly it shows you that the biggest threat to your security isn’t necessarily some kind of online mafia or organised crime gang…or even troublesome youth (or young adult). The biggest threat to your online security is just as likely to come from government organisations.

If you want proof, check out this story from America’s ABC News:

‘In a private area within the Churchill War Rooms, a complex of underground offices originally built to protect top officials from Nazi bombs, 42 contestants were clustered around seven tables amid the crimson glow of red diodes. Staff from BT, British signals intelligence agency GCHQ and other companies paced the floor as the youngsters parsed code and tracked packets of data across an imaginary network.

‘The exercise, formally known as the Cyber Security Challenge, is one of a series of Internet security initiatives that have recently won increased funding as the U.K. government has begun disbursing 860 million pounds ($1.4 billion) into the field.‘

Who do you think will get ‘first dibs’ on the winner? A private sector firm or the government? It’s a no brainer.

The Cyber Security Market Can Only Grow

Not only do cyber security firms have to face the challenge of fighting malware from renegade operators, they have to fight against the bottomless pockets of government spy agencies.

No wonder this is turning into such a big industry. Tech analyst Sam Volkering has been onto this story for the past year, picking two stocks he reckons have the most to gain. To be honest, if it wasn’t for Sam’s insights we wouldn’t have paid half as much attention to these developments.

The bigger picture issue is what impact government snooping will have on the internet. Will it have no impact? Or will it have such a huge impact that people stop using the public internet?

Well, the latter doesn’t seem likely. Unfortunately, most people seem to approve of government snooping. Or at the least they don’t object to it. The fact that the UK’s big spy agency is openly holding what is clearly a ‘veiled’ recruitment drive is proof of that.

The world has come a long way from when the spy agencies would roam the corridors of Oxford and Cambridge Universities seeking to recruit stiff-collared toffs into the ‘business’.

Now they’ll advertise – online – and offer prizes. All for the opportunity to become a tech-spy. It’s a worrying trend. We’re looking forward to security expert John Robb’s view on this at the World War D conference in a week-and-a-half.

But where there’s trouble there’s usually also the chance to make money. That may seem an odd attitude to take. But there are companies doing their darnedest to stop or hinder the government snoopers and hackers. As instances of government hacking grow it makes sense that there will be a greater demand for private security firms to stop them.

Cheers,
Kris+

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By MoneyMorning.com.au