Month: March 2014

Since testing the $99.00 level in Asian trade, crude oil futures for delivery in May rose to $100.03 in the European trading session.

The short term trend remains slightly bullish while higher swing highs and higher swing lows are being made, with today’s low of $99.00 marking the nearest support level. The general focus of the market is towards testing the closest resistance levels.

Selling pressure may start kicking in between $100.14 and $100.24. This is the first resistance area, a clear pivot zone formed between  6^th March low and 21^st March high.

Additional resistance lies further up at $100.41, marked by the 200 simple moving average on daily timeframe and the resistance of the current bullish channel; followed by $100.59, where the 200 simple moving average is located on the 4H timeframe.

Any bearish price action signals from the main resistance levels can result in yet another test of the support at $99.00, or even $98.55 – the support trendline for the current bullish channel.

*********
Prepared by Alexandru Z., Chief Technical Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

Capital Trust Markets – The US dollar surged into the weekend on a raft of better than expected data and a distinctly hawkish monetary policy outlook. Industrial production, manufacturing, employment and current account releases combined to paint a bright outlook for the US economy, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested that a rate hike could succeed the closing of the asset-purchasing taper, which implies a near term target before the end of the year.

However, there are a number of underlying fundamentals that markets seem to be missing, or ignoring, that could negate this rose-tinted outlook.

Crimea

The first is the situation in Crimea. For a number of weeks around the March – February crossover, the potential for military escalation fueled a risk-off sentiment across global markets. Major indices dipped while safe havens gained strength as investors rushed to reallocate capital and reduce exposure. Now the escalation has arrived, those same investors seem not to be in such a rush to take their money out of the markets. This equates to a sort of hair-trigger situation. Investors are holding their exposure for now, but an adverse event in Eastern Europe could trigger a sell-off and a rush to Yen and gold safety. A number of potential triggers have presented themselves, US sanctions on Russian officials, Russian sanctions on US officials, the death of a Ukrainian military official and the seizing of multiple military bases in Crimea, but as-yet, none have proved catalytic. This, of course, may indicate that the market is correct in its ignorance, but the more risk aware trader will surely have one eye on the situation as it unfolds.

China

The second is the outlook in China. The wave of disappointing data continued on Sunday, with HSBC manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations, with the index coming in at 48.1. In addition, a number of high profile companies have defaulted on bond and loan repayments, and reports suggest these are just the tip of the iceberg. An amended version of the old-time favorite – “when China sneezes the whole world catches a cold” – looks like it could replace its predecessor in the not too distant future. China’s shift from manufacturing giant to a global investor has left many economies vulnerable to a contraction; one of which is the U.S, and a slowdown could wreak havoc in financial, commercial and housing markets in the nation.

To Close…

All said, for now at least, the US dollar look set to remain strong. Having said this, fundamental factors could put pressure on the currency and equity markets in the not too distant future. When the markets start to sell off, it will be those traders who keep this in the back of their mind that come out on top.

Written by Samuel Rae – Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

Capital Trust Markets is a fully regulated and compliant online Forex Brokerage, offering a flawless trading environment to traders of all types. The world class trading infrastructure – backed up by advanced trading tools and cutting edge trading software and technology – is combined with award winning customer support to provide a highly successful blend of customized trading solutions.

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Gold prices extended losses on Monday, after last week biggest weekly decline since November on speculation that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates next year, reducing demand for the metal as a store of value. Gold futures edged 0.53% lower to $1,328.90 per ounce at the time of writing, while silver futures declined 0.47% at $20.230 per ounce at the same time. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies; rose slightly by 0.01% standing at 80.113 points. Shares in the world’s largest gold-backed exchange trade fund, SPDR Gold Trust, came in at 816.97 tons on Friday.

Gold – Interest rate hike speculation

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March meeting released last week, showed that Fed policymakers forecasted the benchmark rate, would increase by at least 1% by the end of 2015 and by 2.25% by the end of 2016. In December, three current policymakers forecasted the Fed to hold zero rates until the end of 2015. Last week, the Federal Reserve also announced a further reduction to its monthly bond purchases by another $10 billion to $55 billion.

Gold – China

Meanwhile in China, the HSBC Markit Economics Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for March came in lower than expected, dropping to an eight-month low of 48.1, compared to 48.5 recorded in the previous month and analysts forecast of 48.8. A figure below 50 indicates a contraction and above indicates expansion. The manufacturing output index dropped to an 18-month low of 47.3 in March, compared to 48.8 seen in the previous month. Gold has climbed by 10% this year on the US economy growth concerns and the tension in Ukraine. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasted the world’s largest economy will decline further.   Visit www.hymarkets.com   to find out more about our products and start trading today with only $50 using the latest trading technology today

The post Gold Prices Extend Losses on Interest Rate Hike Speculation appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Crude prices were seen trading lower on Monday, dragged lower by China’s HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The weak data indicates a further slowdown in the world’s second largest oil consumer. The North American WTI edged 0.35% lower to $99.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday. At the same time futures for Brent crude declined 0.38% lower to $106.52 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Crude – China

China Purchasing Mangers’ Index for March from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics came in 48.1 lower, compared to analysts’ estimates of 48.7 and a final reading of 48.5 seen in the previous month.  The figures shows an economic slowdown in China; the world’s second largest oil consumer. A figure below 50 indicates a contraction and above indicates expansion. The slowdown in the nation’s economy is mainly due to the weak domestic demand, as analysts predict Beijing to launch policy measures to ensure steady economy growth. The manufacturing output index dropped to an 18-month low of 47.3 in March, compared to 48.8 seen in the previous month.

Crude – Ukraine

Meanwhile the ongoing tension between Russia and Ukraine continues as the Russian troops seized military bases in the Crimean region. While the Western nations imposed tougher sanctions on Russia, which could add worries over the supply disruptions from the world’s second largest oil producer. “Oil got bashed last week,” Tom James, the managing director of Navitas Resources Ltd. in Dubai said yesterday. “It did firm up a bit at the end of the week as we saw an escalation in sanctions regarding Russia. We’re close to support levels, so I’d see $103-$105 as a good buying opportunity,” he added. Countries from the eurozone and the US are also expected to publish manufacturing indicators for March later in the day.   Visit www.hymarkets.com   to find out more about our products and start trading today with only $50 using the latest trading technology today

The post Crude Prices Dragged Lower by China Flash PMI appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for March 24^th, 2014

DJIA Index

Index is still being corrected. It looks like wave [2] is taking the form of zigzag pattern. On minor wave level, market is expected to complete wave (B) and then continue falling down and form bearish impulse inside wave (C) of [2].

More detailed wave structure is shown on H1 chart. Probably, Index finished ascending zigzag pattern inside wave (B). On minor wave level, market formed initial impulse inside wave 1. After completing short second wave, instrument tis expected to start new descending movement inside the third one.

Crude Oil

Oil started forming the third bearish wave. Earlier price completed impulse inside wave 1 and then started correction. I’ve got only one sell order so far, but I’m planning to ass several more in the future.

As we can see at the H1 chart, wave 2 took the form of zigzag pattern. On minor wave level, market formed impulse inside wave [C] and started forming descending impulse [1]. Possibly, instrument may reach new minimum during the day.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for March 24^th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Euro is still being corrected. Earlier price reached upper target levels and then rebounded from them. Most likely, in the nearest future Eurodollar will start falling down again to reach closest group of fibo-levels.

As we can see at H1 chart, current correction successfully reached local level of 23.6%. According to analysis of temporary fibo-zones, lower target levels may be reached during the next 24 hours. Later pair may rebound from them and start more serious correction.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc is also being corrected. Earlier price rebounded twice from lower fibo-levels and Take Profits on my sell orders worked. Right now, I’m keeping my buy order with target at level of 0.8890.

At H1 chart, market rebounded from local correctional level of 38.2%. According to analysis of temporary fibo-zones, price may reach its predicted target levels by Tuesday. If later pair breaks them upwards, I’ll start buying during the following correction.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By WallStreetDaily.com

For the next two days, we’re combining two of our favorite past times…

Myth busting Wall Street’s most widely held beliefs and using carefully selected graphics to cut through the clutter and noise.

By doing so, we aspire to take our insights to another level.

Investment enlightenment never came so easily.

Without further ado, let’s get to it…

Myth #1: Hyperinflation is Coming! Hyperinflation is Coming!

We’ve been enduring this claptrap ever since the financial crisis hit and the government unleashed untold trillions to stimulate the economy and market.

My response? Ignore the Chicken Littles! Inflation is nowhere to be found.

The data is cut and dry.

Case in point: The latest CPI reading checked in at 1.1%, which is miles away from the historical average of 3.5%.

If you’re a conspiracy theorist or reluctant to trust any data from the government, fair enough. This might do the trick, though…

Just trust what the market is telling us…

As Pragmatic Capitalism’s Cullen Roche reveals, “One of the better ways to gauge the market’s expectations of inflation is to look at the 10-year breakeven. This is just the yield on the 10-year versus the inflation-protected equivalent.”

When the line is heading higher, the market expects higher inflation – and vice versa.

But for months now, it’s been trading sideways. So stay calm and carry on. Low inflation, not hyperinflation, lies ahead.

Myth #2: The Residential Real Estate Market is About to Implode Again

I’ll admit that the runaway real estate rebound is losing steam. But that’s a perfectly natural and good thing. It signals that we’re returning to normal market conditions.

Nevertheless, many pundits fear that we’re doomed to repeat the sins of our past. Namely, that another nasty downturn lurks right around the corner.

Hogwash!

I say that because everyday Americans finally have their financial houses in order. Based on the latest study from credit bureau, TransUnion, we’re paying our mortgages before our credit cards.

The 30-day delinquency rate for mortgages checks in at 1.71%, down from 2.42% in September 2012. Meanwhile, the delinquency rate for credit cards stands at 1.83%.

Believe it or not, we haven’t prioritized our mortgages over our credit cards since 2008.

Or as Ezra Becker, Vice President of Research and Consulting for TransUnion, reminds us, “As unemployment rose and home prices cratered, increasingly more consumers were faced with financial constraints and had to make difficult choices – and many chose to value their credit-card relationships above their mortgages.”

But none of that’s happening right now. We’re properly prioritizing our debts again. The labor market is on the mend. Not to mention, home prices are headed up, not down.

Throw in tighter lending standards over the last few years, and we have no reason whatsoever to fear another real estate market implosion. Not anytime soon, at least.

Myth #3: Green Technology is Where It’s At!

Tesla’s (TSLA) latest plans to disrupt the battery market sparked a renewed mania for cleantech investments, the likes of which we haven’t seen in almost 15 years.

If you want proof, pull up the long-term stock charts for Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) and Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP). They started rallying like it was 1999 all over again.

So is “cleantech” really the place to invest right now for easy gains? Not according to the smartest money in the market – venture capitalists (VC)…

Although cleantech VC investments rebounded in the fourth quarter, the pace remains well below total VC spending trends.

What’s more, over 90% of the inflows into cleantech opportunities in 2013 were “follow-on” investments. That is, venture capitalists were adding to earlier investments to keep them afloat, instead of investing in new opportunities.

The key takeaway? Choose wisely, grasshopper!

Although the world desperately needs cleantech companies to succeed, investments in the space are anything but a sure thing.

That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow when I plan to use a few graphics to bust prevailing wisdom about stock valuations, corporate profit margins, economic growth and the wisdom of overpaid ivy leaguers.

Ahead of the tape,

Louis Basenese

The post Conspiracy Theorists Finally Get Their “Magic Bullet” appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Conspiracy Theorists Finally Get Their “Magic Bullet”

Article by Investazor.com

An interesting week in which USDJPY had a bumpy road, that ultimately turned into the appreciation of the US dollar in front of the Japanese yen breaking the 102 level and closing the week at 102.25. The macro indicators were in favor of the US dollar as the macroeconomic data from the Nippon economy disappointed once again. The trade balance was published below expectations with a deficit of 1.13T while the All Industries Activity indicator was printed at 1% whereas the forecasted value was 1.3%.

Besides all these, the newly crowned FED Chairman, Janet Yellen, managed to surprise the audience and the markets with an unexpected answer to the question, how much “considerable time” means in terms of the length of time when the Federal Reserve will raise the interest rates after the tapering comes to an end. Her answer, “around six months”, induced some panic in the markets, which was beneficial for the US dollar and hurt the capital markets and gold.

Economic Calendar

CSPI y/y (7:50 GTM)-Tuesday. This is a low impact indicator that measures the change in the price of services purchased by corporations. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation because the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer. Last month was 0.8% and this month is expected to have the same value, so if it will be published below expectations could make an impact on the markets.

Household Spending y/y (7:30 GTM)-Thursday. It represents the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers and has a medium impact on the markets. It is considered one of the most important indicators of economic health, so you should pay attention to it as it is expected to be published at 0.3%, a pretty low value and any surprise could cause some volatility.

Tokyo Core CPI y/y (7:30 GTM)-Thursday. This indicator measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers in Tokyo, excluding fresh food. It has a medium impact because Tokyo is Japan’s most populated city. This month is expected to be 0.9%, the same value as last month.

Unemployment Rate (7:30 GTM)-Thursday. This indicator tends to have a muted impact relative to employment data from other countries because the Japanese economy is more reliant on the industrial sector than personal spending. It is expected to be at the same level as in the last two months, 3.7%.

Retail Sales y/y (7:50 GTM)-Thursday. It is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, so it has a medium impact on the markets. Last month it came pretty good at 4.4% while for this month it is forecasted to be at 3.6%, so keep an eye on this indicator because could cause some volatility.

Technical View

USDJPY, Daily

Support: 101.20, 100.00

Resistance: 102.80, 103.70

The daily chart paints a descending trend which slowly, but surely goes towards 101, 100 levels that could prompt from BoJ further monetary stimulus. For the moment, it appears that the price still looks for some direction. In the week to come, we could see in the first part a rise towards the trend line and a rejection that could send the price the 102 level. However, pay attention to the diplomatic battle between Russia and the US as some unexpected situations could stir some volatility.

USDJPY, H1

Support: 102.00, 101.20

Resistance: 102.80, 103.40

A descending channel seems to have formed after the spike caused by the pro dollar statements of Janet Yellen. If it is to be continued the downwards movement, on the short term we can see a close below the support line from 102.00 that could accelerate the negative price action and even send the price to the local low from 101.20.

Bullish or Bearish

Overall, I think this week has big chances to resemble with the last one as we may experience again some ups and downs without a clear direction of the price. That is why I see the price to be moving sideways in a range, but you should also be aware of some unexpected event that could give the price a clear direction.

The post USD/JPY Forecast March 24 – 28 appeared first on investazor.com.

Article by Investazor.com

Last week, NZDUSD got through a rollercoaster of emotions as the price set a higher high at 0.8640 and then to have practically a symmetrical downfall and to arrive almost in the same place as it started the week. The macroeconomic data was kind of neutral to bad and had a medium impact on the markets. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment came better than last month with a reading of 121.7. The Current Account was on a deficit of 1.43B, which was slightly better than the forecasted value of 1.44B.

The GDP has been the highlight of the week and disappointed with an increase of just 0.9%, lower than the last quarter value of 1.2%. This publication corroborated with the statements of Janet Yellen, had an immediate effect and this was a descending one for the NZDUSD quotation.

Economic Calendar

Because the macroeconomic calendar for NZD is very poor this week, we will post the most important indicators from the US that could impact the pair.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence-USD (10:00 GTM)-Tuesday. It is a level of a composite index based on surveyed households. It has a high impact on the markets as financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. It is expected to be published at 78.7.

New Home Sales-USD (10:00 GTM)-Tuesday. This indicator measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. Also, it is a high impact indicator and a leading indicator of economic health. The forecasted value is 447K and any surprise could cause some serious volatility.

Trade Balance-NZD (5:45 GTM)-Wednesday. This is one of the most important macro indicators for the New Zeeland economy. It measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. You should pay attention to this publication as the expected value of 600M is the biggest one since April 2013.

Unemployment Claims-USD (8:30 GTM)-Thursday. This is one of the key indicators for the economic recovery of the US as the labor market is being attentive watched by the FED. It will be interesting to see if the American economy can make another positive surprise as in the last three weeks the jobless claims were below expectations.

Technical View

NZDUSD, Daily

Support: 0.8500, 0.8430

Resistance: 0.8565, 0.8640

The daily chart gives us two bearish signals. The first one is a candlesticks pattern called bearish engulfing which announces a peak or a slowdown in its advancement. The second one could be the validation of the first one as we can see that the candlestick from Friday has a small body and a big superior shadow that means the bears are in control. If the descending movement will be validated, the Fibonacci retracement level can show us some support levels. The first one is the 23.6 level at 0.8500 and if is broken could cause some damage and send the price to the support line from 0.8430.

NZDUSD, H1

Support: 0.8500, 0.8470

Resistance: 0.8565, 0.8600

On the hourly chart, the price formed an ascending channel that could find some resistance in the 0.8565 area and send the price again on a downwards movement at the key support line from 0.8500. However, if the upwards channel is continued and the price closes above the resistance from 0.8565, the psychological level from 0.8600 could be hit.

Bullish or Bearish

I think the price will be driven mostly by the American publications in the first part of the week as the trade balance indicator from New Zeeland will give the price a certain direction for the remainder of the week. My outlook is bearish and I expect that those two signals from the daily charts to find some validation in the week to come and the NZDUSD lower by the end of the week.

The post NZD/USD Forecast For March 24 – 28 appeared first on investazor.com.

Article by Investazor.com

EURUSD has drawn a Flag pattern on its way up, to retest 1.3815. A drop under the lower line of the Flag could mean that bears are ready to take control again and send the Euro all the way to 1.3700. If the price will close above the resistance area on a 60 minutes chart we should expect a rally to 1.3850 o even higher. Don’t forget to keep an eye on the economic calendar for the latest releases.

The post EUR/USD Price Action For March 24 appeared first on investazor.com.