Month: February 2014

Crude oil is moving sideways for the last few days which now can be a triangle in progress placed in wave (iv). Triangle is a five wave pattern, so be aware of a break to the upside in the next few days as price already made pullback down to 96.70 yesterday that can be wave e), final leg in the pattern.

OIL 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

OIL One Hour

Crude oil is trapped in contracting range in this week but because of five legs it may be a time to be aware of a coming break. This break should be to the upside because of a triangle placed in the middle of a larger uptrend. Break above wave d) will open door for push above $99, ideally towards $100 per barrel.

OIL 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

Written by www.ew-forecast.com

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Financial parallels between the 1920s and today

By Elliott Wave International

When the financial media mentions the late 1920s, they usually mean the 1929 stock market top. But today’s investors can also learn from what happened in 1928. That was the year that the bond market topped, while commodities peaked even sooner.

You can see this for yourself in a chart published in the September 2013 issue of Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist.

In the deflationary collapse of 1929-32, commodities fell from lower peaks, not higher peaks; stocks fell from all-time highs down to the bottom; and bond prices fell from an all-time high a year earlier.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, July-August, 2013

These markets could see a similar outcome in the near future: Commodities peaked in 2008, while Treasury bonds topped in 2012. The high in the Dow Industrials remains December 31, 2013.

Of course, history doesn’t always repeat itself. Whether December 31 proves to be a long-term high in the Dow remains to be seen. The stock market rally since March 2009 has been doggedly persistent. Prices have surged several times just as the indicators suggested the uptrend was over.

Bad Start for Stocks in 2014: Buying opportunity or more pain to come? You can benefit greatly from looking at charts that take a historical look at what’s going on in the financial markets. Robert Prechter has just released an issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist publication that includes 15 charts of the S&P 500, NASDAQ, gold, and mutual funds — along with his analysis. With this information, his Elliott Wave Theorist subscribers are now prepared for 2014. And you can be, too, because you can get the full 10-page issue, FREE. Download your free 10-page report now >>

By CentralBankNews.info
    The Czech Republic’s central bank maintained its benchmark two-week repo rate at 0.05 percent and confirmed its commitment to intervene on foreign exchange markets to ensure the koruna currency remains below 27 to the euro.
    The Czech National Bank (CNB) started intervening in foreign exchange markets in November after many months of deliberations, 12 months after it cut its repo rate to the current level. Last month it also confirmed its commitment to intervention which cost it 7 billion euros in November.
    The decision to intervene in FX markets until at least early 2015 was in response to the threat of deflation in addition to the wish to make Czech exporters more internationally competitive.
    There are now signs that the threat of deflation is receding but the CNB still trimmed its forecast for headline inflation in the first quarter of 2015 to 2.8 percent from 3.0 percent in its November forecast.
    Inflation in the second quarter of 2015 is forecast to remain at 2.8 percent. In the three months from January through March, headline inflation is forecast at an unchanged 0.4 percent and the forecast for the bank’s preferred inflation measure is for 0.2 percent in January though March.

   Inflation in the Czech Republic December rose to 1.4 percent, up from November’s 1.1 percent and the recent low of 0.9 percent in October, though still below the CNB’s 2.0 percent midpoint inflation target, plus/minus one percentage points.
    In its latest forecast, the central bank raised its estimate for the economy’s contraction in 2013 to 1.3 percent from November’s forecast of a 0.9 percent contraction.
    But for 2014 the CNB now forecasts growth in Gross Domestic Product of 2.2 percent, up from a previous 2.1 percent, and 2.8 percent growth in 2015, up from a previous 2.5 percent.
    In the third quarter of 2013, the Czech GDP grew by 0.2 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter, but on an annual basis GDP contracted by 1.2 percent, slightly better than the second quarter’s 1.7 percent contraction.
    Since the CNB started intervening, the koruna has remained below 27 to the euro, trading at 27.56 to the euro today compared with 25.84 just before the decision to intervene.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

Crude prices climbed on Thursday after the report from the US which revealed the demand for distillates dropped due to the freezing weather.

Futures for the WTI for March delivery rose 0.31% higher to $97.69 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at the time of writing. At the same futures for the Brent crude for the March settlement came in 0.14% higher at $106.40 per barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $8.80 to WTI on the ICE exchange.

Reports from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that the US stockpiles climbed at a slower pace last week. Stockpiles rose by 440,000 barrels, compared to the previous figures of 2.27 million barrels in the previous week.  Gasoline inventories added 505,000 barrels, compared to the gain of 1.48 million barrels forecasted by analysts.

Crude – Distillates Demand

Meanwhile, the US distillate supplies including heating oil and diesel fell by 2.36 million barrels to 113.8 million. The demand in distillates dropped due to the freezing weather and snow in the Northern eastern region of the US.  The US is the world’s biggest oil consumer.

Report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)  revealed the US services sector expanded to 54.0 in January, rising from the previous reading of 53.0 seen in December and compared to analysts forecast of 53.7.

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The post Crude Prices Advances as Distillate Supply Declines appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Shares in the Asian region advanced for a second day on Thursday as Australia reported an upbeat trade surplus on exports to China and comments from the deputy governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Market participants are looking forward to the release of the US unemployment and payroll reports tomorrow and the European Central Bank (ECB) decision on the monetary policy.

The Japanese Nikkei 225 index climbed 0.18% higher at 14,155.12 points, while Tokyo’s Topix index declined 0.02% lower, closing at 1,162.37 points.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 0.60% to 21,395.19 points at the time of writing, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange closed for the Chinese New Year holiday. Korea’s benchmark Kospi index advanced 0.88% higher, closing at 1,907.89 points.

Stocks – BoJ, ECB

Kikuo Iwata, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) commented on the bank’s monetary easing, saying the bank would continue its monetary easing until the inflation rate reaches the bank’s 2% target.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank policymakers are expected to meet to discuss the bank’s interest rate after inflation slowed to a four-year low last month. Analysts are expecting officials to maintain rates.

Stocks – Australia Upbeat Data

Stocks in Australia climbed on a string of positive macroeconomic data on Thursday. The country’s benchmark S&P/ASX index closed 1.20% lower at 5,131.40, while Australia’s trade balance came in higher in December as exports came in 4% higher from the November.

Australia reported a trade surplus of A$468 million in December, according t o the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Trade data with China, Australia’s biggest trading partner hit a record.

Australia’s retail sales came in 0.5% higher month-on-month in December, compared to the previous figures of 0.7% seen in November.

Stocks – US Payroll & Jobless Claims Report

With reports for the US payrolls and unemployment reports expected to be released on Friday, analysts are expected to see the US unemployment figures come in at 6.7% in January. US companies increased payrolls by 175,000 in January, according to reports from the ADP Research Institute.

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The post Asian Stocks Mixed Ahead of US Jobs Report appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Forex trading resulted in the AUD/USD pair rising by more than 2 percent on Feb. 4, as global market participants were impacted by the latest information provided by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The currency pair gained 2.2 percent during the day, according to Reuters. This happened after lackluster economic conditions and the policies of the central bank of the Asian Pacific nation resulted in the Aussie plunging by almost 20 percent over the last year.

Forex trading prompted by RBA statements

The increase in the AUD/USD happened after Glenn Stevens, governor of the RBA, indicated that the financial institution would not change its benchmark interest rate, leaving it steady at 2.5 percent. The RBA stated that for the time being, it would likely maintain its borrowing costs. Stevens asserted that the organization was likely on track to achieve its goals for inflation and demand with the existing monetary policy.

The central bank noted that its current use of monetary stimulus levers leans toward stimulating further growth. In addition, the government official indicated his shifting stance on the Aussie, according to Bloomberg.

Central bank notes new view of Aussie

While Stevens had said previously that the value of the emerging-market currency was “uncomfortably high,” he stated that the recent depreciation in the Australian dollar would help facilitate economic growth, the media outlet reported.

“They’ve shifted very firmly to a neutral bias,” Su-Lin Ong, who works for Royal Bank of Canada in Sydney as head of Australian economic and fixed-income strategy, told the news source. “The fact they’ve taken out the reference to the uncomfortably high Australian dollar also tells you that they’re clearly pleased with what the currency’s done over the past couple of months.”

The market expert is correct in that the statements about the RBA being comfortable with the currency value of the Aussie could have substantial implications for forex trading and the AUD/USD. The fact that the financial institution is satisfied with the current strength of the currency means that the organization will be less likely to take further action aimed at devaluation.

“Together, these statements suggest that the exchange rate is approaching levels at which the RBA is more comfortable and that policymakers are removing the threat of using their most powerful tool to drive it lower,” Citibank analysts wrote in a note that was written for European clients, Reuters reported. “This will be viewed as the market as an all-clear signal on the currency and is likely to invite a further reversal of short positions among leveraged investors.”

Importance of Fed stimulus

Another factor that is considered by many market experts to play a crucial role in the AUD/USD is the actions that the Federal Reserve takes to stimulate the U.S. economy.

The Federal Open Market Committee announced at the end of its most recent meeting that starting in February, it would purchase $65 billion worth of bonds per month. The central bank could easily push this amount lower at subsequent meetings, depending on the strength of economic data in the nation.

Many market experts are currently waiting to see the results of the latest U.S. Department of Labor report, which is scheduled to released on Friday, Feb. 7.

This government agency will probably end up showing that in January, the jobless rate declined to 6.6 percent and payrolls rose by 190,000, according to economists who took part in a recent MarketWatch poll. Another key piece of information came in the form of a report released by the Institute for Supply Management, which indicated that in January, its manufacturing index fell short of the predictions of market experts, the media outlet reported.

The lackluster activity was blamed by many industry participants on challenging weather. One market expert said that attributing poor economic conditions to the cold will not work for much longer.

“I think the market is frustrated with that argument,” Brad Bechtel, managing director at Faros Trading, told the news source. “After the ISM data, it needs to see some better data otherwise it’s going to get worried.”

If the jobs report is also disappointing, this information could put pressure on the FOMC to refrain from dialing down its existing regimen of bond purchases quickly. Many market participants have been speculating about the schedule that the Fed will use to gradually reduce these transactions.

Many believe that if the data that is released shows strength in the U.S. economy, then the central bank will have the justification it needs to continue lowering its bond purchases. Such a development would reduce the pace at which the U.S. money supply is growing, and provide some tailwinds to the value of the greenback.

Any factors that serve to push this currency higher could have a substantial impact on forex trading and the value of the AUD/USD.

The post Forex Trading Results in Spike in AUD/USD appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By CentralBankNews.info
    The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its benchmark refinancing rate at 0.25 percent, along with its other policy rates, and said it’s president, Mario Draghi, would comment on the decision at a press conference later today.

By CentralBankNews.info
    The Bank of England maintained its monetary policy stance, as widely expected, holding the Bank Rate at 0.50 percent and the stock of assets purchased at 375 billion pounds.

By CentralBankNews.info
    The Philippines’ central bank held its policy rates steady, as widely expected, describing inflation as “manageable” and forecast to remain within the central bank’s target ranges this year and 2015.
    The Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP), which has maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 3.50 percent since October 2012, acknowledged that the balance of risks to the inflation outlook remains “slightly weighted towards the upside” given the pending petitions for higher utility rates and the possible rise in food prices.
    Inflation in the Philippines has been accelerating the last five months, hitting 4.2 percent in January, the highest since November 2011 mainly due to higher food prices from adverse weather. The central bank targets inflation at a midpoint of 4.0 percent in 2014, plus/minus 1 percentage points, while in 2015 the inflation target is 3.0 percent, plus/minus 1 percentage point.
    The decision by the BSP’s monetary board was expected following a text message sent by the governor, Amando Tetangco, to reporters on Wednesday in which he said the bank still had room to keep rates steady but that room may be narrowing due to the risks to the inflation outlook.
    In addition to the impact on food prices from Typoon Haiyan, import prices are also likely to be under pressure from the decline in the Philippine peso.
    The peso lost 7.5 percent against the U.S. dollar in 2013 and has lost a further 1.7 percent so far this year, trading at 45.18 to the dollar today.
    The BSP said the global economy had become more challenging due to heightened financial market uncertainty following the adjustment of monetary policy in the United States and concern over the sustainability of growth in emerging market economies.
    But the BSP said domestic activity is likely to stay firm, with buoyant demand, strong fiscal and external positions, as well as favorable consumer and business sentiment supporting the economy.
    The Philippines’ Gross Domestic Product expanded by 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of last year from the third quarter for annual growth of 6.5 percent, down from 6.9 percent.

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Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for February 6^th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Bulls are trying to keep price above level of 61.8%. If they succeed, pair will continue growing up towards a group of upper fibo-levels. I’ll move stop on my buy order into the black as soon as market reaches new maximum.

At H1 chart we can see, earlier this week price rebounded from lower border of its target area, it happened right inside temporary fibo-zone. The first target for bulls is at local level of 38.2%. If market breaks it, pair will continue growing up.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

At H4 chart, Franc rebounded from levels of 78.6% and then 61.8%. I’m keeping my sell order, although I’m still a bit in a drawdown. In the near term, market may start new descending movement.

At H1 chart, market rebounded from local level of 78.6%. Most likely, in the nearest future pair will continue falling down towards level of 61.8%. If price breaks it, bears will continue pushing pair downwards.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
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