Month: February 2014

By CentralBankNews.info
    Georgia’s central bank raised its benchmark refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 4.0 percent, saying there was no need to maintain the easy policy stance as economic growth is improving and this trend is expected to continue in the first half of 2014.
    The National Bank of Georgia, which cut rates by 150 basis points in 2013, also said inflation was projected to get closer to the bank’s target in the second half of the year.
    The central bank, which targets inflation of 6.0 percent end-2014, said in December that it was maintaining a relaxed policy stance but would tighten policy to ensure inflation remains on target.
     In January Georgia’s inflation rate jumped to 2.9 percent, the fourth month of rising prices after deflation in most of 2012 and 2013.
    The impact of last year’s depreciation of Georgia’s lari was estimated to have raised the inflation rate by about 1 percentage point, an impact the central bank said was contained in its forecast.
    The lari depreciated by 4.6 percent against the U.S. dollar last year and fell further to 1.79 to the dollar at the end of January. But it has risen in recent weeks, trading at 1.73 today.

    Georgia’s economic growth is estimated to have picked up to 8 percent in the November-December period and the central bank said it was forecasting 6.9 percent growth in the fourth quarter along with a 3.1 percent expansion for the entire 2013 year.
    In 2012 Georgia’s GDP grew by 6.1 percent but the International Monetary Fund forecast 2.5 percent expansion in 2013. In the third quarter, Georgia’s GDP grew by an annual 1.4 percent.
   The central bank said domestic demand was boosting imports, especially of investment goods that should encourage overall economic growth. Banks’ lending activity has increase significantly in recent months, with banks’ credit portfolio up by 16 percent.
   
    http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb

By CentralBankNews.info
   Rwanda’s central bank “will maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance to stimulate credit to the private sector as long as inflationary pressures will remain limited,” the bank’s governor said.
    Presenting the National Bank of Rwanda’s (BNR) policy and financial stability statement, John Rwangombwa also said the country’s economy slowed in 2013 compared to recent years due to the impact of cuts and delays in budgets in 2012.
    Annual growth in Rwanda’s Gross Domestic Product fell to 3.9 percent in the third quarter of 2013 from 5.7 percent in the second quarter and the country’s finance and economic planning ministry has therefore revised down its 2013 growth forecast to less than 6.0 percent, Rwangombwa said.
    Rwanda’s inflation rate eased to 2.43 percent in January, down from 3.65 percent in December, and he said deposit interest rates and lending rates had declined in line with the bank’s monetary stance. The lending rate declined to 16.9 percent in December from 17.8 percent in September.
    At the last meeting of its monetary policy committee in December 2013, the BNR held its repo rate steady at 7.0 percent following a 50 basis point rate cut in June.

    http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb

ECB’s Coeur: “ECB is considering negative deposit rate very seriously”. EURUSD through 1.3623 support. A sharp decline can be part of a new five wave fall. We however need to wait more, but if we get an impulse from 1.3680 then we may be looking for new shorts on EURUSD. In upcoming wave iv) 1.3623 should hold, otherwise count becomes invalid. An overlap with this figure would make decline from 1.3680 corrective and support the idea for bullish EURJPY even more.

EURUSD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

GBPUSD turned down from resistance as highlighted yesterday, from end of wave (iii). Pullback is now already in three legs so sooner or later pair will turn back to the highs for wave (v) to 1.6500. Any deeper downward move in current wave (iv) should stop around 1.6380 support. Be aware of BOE Gov Carney speech and BOE Inflation Report at 10:30GMT.

GBPUSD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

Written by www.ew-forecast.com

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By CentralBankNews.info
    Iceland’s central bank held its policy rates steady but warned that “the outlook for stronger domestic growth will require that the monetary stance be tightened sooner and more than previously expected.”
    The Central Bank of Iceland, which maintained its benchmark seven-day lending rate at 6.0 percent in 2013 after raising it by 125 basis points in 2012, raised its forecast for growth and inflation due to the government’s debt relief measures that the bank’s expects will “boost private consumption considerably in the near future.”
    The pace of the central bank’s rate tightening will depend on inflation – the central bank targets inflation of 2.5 percent – along with the government’s fiscal policy, the central bank added.
     In its latest Monetary Bulletin the bank revised upwards its estimate for Iceland’s Gross Domestic Product growth in 2013 to 3.0 percent from its November forecast of 2.3 percent, helped by a strong recovery in the labour market and trade. The forecast for this year and the following two years has also been revised up so the slack in the economy will disappear earlier than expected.
    Iceland’s GDP is forecast to expand by an unchanged 2.6 percent in 2014 but then grow by 3.7 percent in 2015, up from a previously-expected 2.8 percent, and by 3.0 percent in 2016, up from 2.0 percent forecast in November.

    “If the forecast materializes, output growth will average 3.1 percent over the forecast horizon, which is above the 30-year average and well above the average projection for Iceland’s main trading partners,” the bank said.
    Inflation in 2014 is expected to ease to an average of 2.7 percent, down from an estimated 3.9 percent in 2013, and lower than 3.2 percent forecast in November. The reason for the lower-than-expected inflation rate is because the rise in unit labour costs will be smaller than forecast by the bank provided that the wage talks concluded in December would be applied to the entire labor market.
    In January Iceland’s headline inflation rate eased to 3.1 percent from 4.2 percent in December.
    “The inflation outlook for the coming two years has deteriorated since the November forecast, however, as the outlook if for the slack in the economy to give way to an output gap during the period,” the central bank said.
    In 2015 the bank expects inflation to average 3.4 percent, up from a previous 2.8 percent forecast, and 3.2 percent in 2016, up from 2.6 percent.
     The central bank’s latest survey of market expectations from early February showed the bank’s collateralised lending rate remaining unchanged at 6.0 percent until the end of 2014, 0.5 percentage points lower in nominal terms than in the November survey.
    But markets currently expect the central bank to raise its rate by 25 basis points in the first quarter of next year, rising to 6.5 percent in two years. Forward rates indicated that investors expect the bank’s policy rate to by by 50 basis points this year, 25 basis points higher than forward rates indicated in November.
    The government’s debt relief package will be implemented over four years, estimated to cost 150 billion Icelandic krona, or 8.5 percent of the estimated value of Iceland’s GDP in 2013.
    The central bank projects the measures will boost private consumption by 1.5 percentage points in 2014 and 2015, partly crowding out investment, but boosting GDP growth by about 0.2 percentage points. Imports will also rise, leading to a 1.0-1.5 percentage points drop in the forecast for the current account balance, putting pressure on the krona, which will boost inflation.
    Iceland’s current account balance was estimated at a surplus of 3.0 percent of GDP in 2013, but this would decline to a surplus of only 0.8 percent this year, a deficit of 1.0 percent in 2015 and a deficit of 2.8 percent in 2016.
    Private consumption in Iceland is now forecast to expand by 4.6 percent this year, up from an estimated 1.6 percent in 2013 and a previous forecast of 2.3 percent. In 2015 private consumption is forecast to rise by 4.3 percent, up from a previous 2.5 percent, and by 2.9 percent in 2016, up from 2.5 percent previously forecast.
    “In part the effects of the debt relief package are absorbed through higher interest rates,” the bank said.
   According to the bank’s quarterly macroeconomic monetary policy rule, the central bank’s policy rate will be some 0.3 percentage points higher than previously forecast in 2014, 0.6 percentage points higher in 2015 and nearly 1 percentage point higher from 2016.
    “Higher interest rates therefore offset the impact of the debt relief measures on domestic demand, the exchange rate of the krona, and inflation,” the bank said in its bulletin.
  However, the bank cautioned there was a great deal of uncertainty about the impact of the package due to the lack of historical precedent. Households could save more than assumed, growth and inflation will depend on how much the increased demand is directed toward imports versus domestic factors, and this will again affect the exchange rate. The government could also act to mitigate some of the negative effects of the measures, it said.
   
    http://ift.tt/1iP0FNb

By investment-guru.com

Despite the poor performance of last year, prices for raw materials remain popular in the portfolios of investment professionals in 2014, with preference to the cyclical metals. This is reflected in a survey of ETF Securities among 450 experts in commodities trading.

Commodities balance became in motion a little, only 20 % of respondents to this asset class continues to embrace the current year . Cyclic metals such as platinum and copper are the most sought after professionale investors . Also silver that was in dire straits last year , appears in the top three favorite commodities .

Risks
Besides opportunities, professionals also see risks looming for the commodity market, including the fear that the ongoing taper policy of the U.S. central bank will put a brake on the financial markets. They also point to concerns about a lower than expected growth in China and a possible slowdown in the U.S. economy.

The press release by ETF Securities can be read here: http://www.etfsecurities.com/institutional/uk/en-gb/news/commodities-back-in-favour–with-cyclical-metals-most-popular

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Gold prices dropped from its highest level since November as advance in stocks reduced the demand for the metal.

Stocks were seen trading to its highest level in over two weeks, as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) new Chairwoman Janet Yellen made her first speech before congress on Tuesday in which she hinted the Fed will go ahead with its target to slowly reduce its easing policy as the labour market recovers.

The yellow metal advanced 70% higher from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed injected over $2 trillion into the financial system.

Gold bounced back 6.7% amid the rise in physical demand and the Fed continues to reduce monthly bond purchases.

Gold declined 0.4% to $1,285.97 an ounce, after rising to its highest price of $1,293.93, the highest since Nov 14. The metal’s delivery for April fell 0.3% lower to $1,286 on the Comex in New York.

Stocks in China advanced on the unexpected rise in exports, which climbed to 10.6% in January, while imports rose 10% higher and the country’s traded surplus expanded.

Gold- Yellen Testimony

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) new Chairwoman Janet Yellen made her first speech before congress on Tuesday in which she hinted the Fed will go ahead with its target to slowly reduce its easing policy regardless of the recent weak jobs data.

“The economic recovery gained greater traction in the second half of last year,” according to Yellen.

“If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings,” according to Fed Chair Yellen.

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The post Gold Prices Declines From Three Month High appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Crude prices advanced to its highest level on Wednesday after China released its upbeat trade data for January and reports showed distillate stockpiles dropped last week in the US, the world’s biggest oil consumer.

WTI for March delivery rose 0.55% higher to trade at $100.49 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at the time of writing. While the European benchmark Brent crude for March settlement gained 0.09% to $108.78 per barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.

The continuous four-week gain in the North American crude was primarily driven by the extreme cold weather in the US, increasing the demand for energy.

Crude Inventories

According to reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventories added 2.13 million barrels in the last week. The reports also revealed gasoline inventories declined by 479,000 barrels, compared to the forecast of a 100,000 barrel drop.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the extreme winter weather in the US could curb the rise in oil production as the low temperatures limit drilling of new oil wells.

The EIA are expected to release reports for its oil stockpiles later in the day.

China Trade Balance

China’s trade balance expanded in January, while the country’s imports and export growth surpassed predictions.

The surplus on trade came in at $31.9 billion in January, widening from the previous figure of $25.6 billion seen in the previous month and exceeding analysts’ forecast of a $23.6 million surplus, a release from the Customs General Administration of China confirmed.

While Import growth rose to 10%, compared to 8.3% growth seen in December. Exports growth exceeded analysts expectations, rising 10.6% year-on-year in January.

Yellen Testimony

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) new Chairwoman Janet Yellen made her first speech before congress on Tuesday in which she hinted the Fed will go ahead with its target to slowly reduce its easing policy regardless of the recent weak jobs data.

“The economic recovery gained greater traction in the second half of last year,” according to Yellen.

“If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings,” according to Fed Chair Yellen.

Visit www.hymarkets.com   to find out more about our products and start trading today with only $50 using the latest trading technology today.

The post Crude Prices Trades Higher on China Trade Balance Surplus appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for February 12^th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Possibly, Euro completed ascending zigzag (D) of [B] and started forming final descending zigzag (E) of [B]. However, this assumption hasn’t been confirmed and price may yet change structure of wave (D).

Possibly, price is forming the first “leg” A of (E) of descending zigzag (E). Pair finished ascending correction [ii] of A of (E), which may be followed by descending impulse [iii] of A of (E).

Probably, pair finished ascending correction [ii] of A. In this case, later price is expected to start descending impulse [iii] of A.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Possibly, Pound finished ascending zigzag D of (B). In this case, pair is expected to form final descending zigzag E of (B).

Probably, price started final descending zigzag E. Right now, pair is starting impulse (iii) of [a] of E.

Possibly, pair finished ascending correction (ii), which may be followed by descending movement inside wave (iii).

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Possibly, Franc completed descending zigzag D of (4) and started forming final ascending zigzag E of (4) of [C]. However, this assumption hasn’t been confirmed and price may yet change structure of wave D.

Probably, price completed descending correction (ii) of [a] of E of ascending zigzag E, which may be followed by ascending impulse (iii) of [a] of E.

Possibly, pair finished descending correction (ii) of [a], which may be followed by ascending impulse (iii) of [a].

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

Possibly, Yen finished ascending impulse (A). In this case, later price is expected to start large descending correction (B), may be in the form of zigzag.

Probably, pair finished impulse [i] of A of (B) of horizontal correction (B). Right now, price is forming local ascending correction [ii] of A, which may be followed by descending impulse [iii] of A.

Possibly, price is forming ascending correction [ii] of A in the form of zigzag, which may be followed by descending impulse [iii] of A.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for February 12^th, 20142

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After reaching one of intermediate levels, Euro started new correction. However, price may yet continue growing up. Closest important target is at level of 1.3810, which may be reached until the end of this week.

At H1 chart, correction reached local level of 38.2% and rebounded from it. Closest target is near several fibo-levels at 1.3735. According to analysis of temporary fibo-zones, this target area may be reached during the next 24 hours.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc is also being corrected. Main targets are still in lower part of the chart. Market is expected to start new descending movement towards them during the next several hours.

At H1 chart, market reached local level of 38.2%. According to analysis of temporary fibo-zones, price may reverse. If price rebounds from this level, I’ll increase my short position.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

GBPUSD: We continue to hold our bullish outlook on GBP as it looks to recover further higher. This development leaves it targeting the 1.6497 level, its Jan 30 2014 high as the next upside. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.6550 level where a breach will aim at the 1.6600 level, its psycho level. A turn above here will pave the way for a run at the 1.6667 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.6400 level where a breach will open the door for additional weakness towards the 1.6350 level and possibly lower towards the 1.6300 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.6259 level. This level is expected to hold if tested thus turning GBP higher. On the whole, GBP continues to face bull threats.

Article by www.fxtechstrategy.com