Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 19.02.2014 (EUR/USD, USD/CHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for February 19th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Euro continues moving upwards. Yesterday bulls broke maximum and right now are moving towards their main target, which is close to several upper fibo-levels near 1.3800. During correction, I opened another buy order.

According to the analysis of temporary fibo-zones at H1 chart, target levels may be reached during the day. If later price rebound from them, market may start new correction.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc is moving downwards quite fast, and I decided to move stop on my sell order into the black. If bears continue pushing price downwards, they may reach new minimum by the end of this week.

As we can see at H1 chart, price is consolidating. According to analysis of temporary fibo-zones, predicted targets may be reached by Thursday. However, one should remember that price may rebound from target area quite fast, that’s why I’m planning to use Take Profit to close my orders.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

 

 

 

 

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 19.02.2014 (EUR/USD, USD/JPY)

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for February 19th, 2014

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

H4 chart of EUR USD shows bullish tendency. Harami pattern near upper Window indicates possibility of bearish pullback. Three Line Break chart and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm that bullish tendency continues.

H1 chart of EUR USD shows sideways correction within ascending trend. Upper Window is resistance level. Evening Star pattern, Three Line Break chart, and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm descending movement.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

H4 chart of USD JPY shows correction within descending trend. Lower Window is support level. Doji pattern and Three Line Break chart confirm ascending movement; Heiken Ashi candlesticks indicate bearish pullback.

H1 chart of USD JPY shows bearish tendency within sideways trend. Three Methods pattern, Three Line Break chart, and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm descending movement.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

 

 

 

 

The Most Important Question Top Stock Pickers Keith Schaefer, Eric Coffin and Lawrence Roulston Ask Company Presidents

Source: JT Long of The Mining Report  (2/18/14)

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/the-most-important-question-top-stock-pickers-keith-schaefer-eric-coffin-and-lawrence-roulston-ask-company-presidents

Payback time? Fallback plan? Money in the bank? What would you ask the CEO of a company you were considering investing in? In advance of the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada convention in March, newsletter writers Keith Schaefer, Eric Coffin and Lawrence Roulston are bringing 15 energy and mining companies together for a “meet the management” Subscriber Investment Summit in Toronto. In this interview with The Mining Report, the experts share their sometimes surprising responses to the state of the industry.

The Mining Report: Keith, in a recent e-mail to your subscribers, you mentioned that one of the secrets to successful investing is meeting the management. Would each of you share some of the questions you ask company heads to determine if they can be successful?

Keith Schaefer: I am very focused on paybacks. When a company drills a well, I want to know how long it takes for that well to pay for itself. In the larger oil sector, anything that has less than a two-year payback is good, but in the junior sector, where I play, payback needs to be no more than 15 months.

You could ask for the net back, or profit per barrel, or the net present value (NPV) or the production rate. But that doesn’t matter as much as the payback—how fast you get that money back so you can drill another well. That is, by far, No. 1. The information that goes into that answer encompasses the answers to many other questions.

The other big questions are how much money the company has and how big a deadline it has. How much liquidity does the company have before management has to raise money again? Those would be questions I would ask management out of the gate.

TMR: Do the secondary questions inform the first question? If a company is well funded is the payback time as important?

KS: Regardless, I want to see a 12–15 month payback. If management tells me it has a two-year payback, and it’s a really small company, that just doesn’t work. If the payback is right, I’ll ask how much the wells cost, and how much money is in the bank, because I can do some pretty simple math to figure out the next time the company will need to raise money. But if a company doesn’t have a 15-month payback and is really small, I don’t care to hear anything else about them.

TMR: Eric, what do you want to know?

Eric Coffin: Life is not so simple at Hard Rock Co., unfortunately. Obviously, how much money a company has is very important. It tells us how fast that company will need to go back to market.

But I need to know the background of management, and what kind of projects the management team has been involved with. I like to see that team members have had hands-on exploring experience. Some guys are very good at running exploration projects successfully, and others not so much.

I also want to hear about the target, the geological model, the upside if this works out and the fallback position if it doesn’t. Most of the time, the fallback position is either secondary projects and/or cash in the bank, so the company can go look for something else. You need to get an idea of the scale potential. If a company has a $20 million ($20M) capex and is drilling for 200–300,000 ounces (200–300 Koz) gold equivalent, there’s just not a lot of upside there. I want to see that, if management is successful, there’s a significant amount of upside. Explaining the target gives me some comfort that management knows what it is doing.

TMR: When it comes to a fallback position, do you like to see companies with multiple projects in the pipeline, or would you rather see them focused on just one project?

EC: I like to see other projects in the pipeline. There is some truth to the idea that you can try to do too many things at once. If I see a company that constantly switches over to whatever is hot that week, I basically just ignore it. I like to see that company management has a concept and a philosophy, like “We look for copper-gold porphyries,” or “We’re focused on epithermal gold projects.” I like to see other properties advancing to drill target stage while the main property actually is being drilled. That gives shareholders a stronger fallback position, because exploration isn’t going to work out on most projects. That’s just the math.

On the other hand, I like to see that a company has two or three projects it can fall back on, not 15 or 20, with management running around in circles. But if a company is focused on just one property, and if I really like the targets, I’m not going to be afraid of the company. I just know it comes with a bigger downside if the drilling doesn’t work out. You have to understand that going in. If that’s the case, the target has to be that much bigger.

TMR: Lawrence, what do you ask to determine whether a company will be successful?

Lawrence Roulston: Beyond all the basic questions about the financial situation, the project and management’s background, which are all important, I need to know whether management has the drive and determination to overcome the endless obstacles on the road to success. You can only get that sense if you talk to the people behind the company; spend a bit of time and get to know them.

Unfortunately, this industry has evolved away from old-style compensation, where members of management had low salaries and big stock positions, thereby aligning their interests with shareholders. We’ve moved way too far toward big salaries. There are a lot of people out there who are more interested in protecting their salaries than in adding shareholder value. Those intangible, subjective measures are critical to determining if a company will be successful.

TMR: What do you want to see in a CEO’s background? Would you rather see someone from finance/business, or a geologist?

LR: Mining requires some very specialized skills. A person also needs to be an entrepreneur. If someone has had a big success in the past, that can be a plus, but it’s also really exciting to find the young guys who are going to be the stars of next year. Both business and geology are important. A good company needs a well-rounded team that can cover all the bases.

TMR: The three of you are putting together a Subscriber Investment Summit the day before the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention in March. You have picked a number of companies to present at the summit, and be available to talk to investors. The three of you will be there talking to investors and companies as well. Can each of you tell me why you picked the companies you did, and about the catalysts that make these companies worthwhile for investors?

KS: A company called rdx Technologies Corp. (RDX:TSX.V) has a novel way of treating wastewater. In addition to purifying the water so it can go back into the ground, the company extracts every little bit of energy from that water. That means any kind of oil, animal or plant residue. The company has the ability to shake that residue out, chemically separate it and create fuel. So rdx gets paid to take in the wastewater, and it gets paid to sell the fuel. So far, the company has two operations up and running.

This process is new and looks to be very cheap. Management has a very aggressive growth program, so the proof is going to be in the pudding on this one very quickly. The company has a very exciting story that they’re going to test within the next two quarters.

Madalena Energy Inc. (MVN:TSX.V; MDLNF:OTCPK) is a very simple producer story. It has a big land position in Argentina, a country that might scare a lot of people. But the reality is that big oil is spending big money in Argentina to buy up a lot of land. If you apply the transaction metrics that are going on in the country to Madalena’s land block, the stock is a triple from here. That’s exciting. I wanted to make sure management can tell investors that story.

TMR: Madalena is operating on the Vaca Muerta shale. How does that shale compare to the Bakken?

KS: So far, it’s the only play on earth that could be more oil-charged than the Bakken. Everyone is familiar with fracking. Usually companies will do 20 fracks in a well. In the Bakken, you might get 10 barrels (10 bbl) per frack. In the Vaca Muerta, explorers are seeing as many as 50 bbl per frack. It is very highly oil-charged. If it weren’t for the politics in Argentina, the stocks of all the companies in the region would be dramatically higher than they are now.

TMR: What other companies will be at the Subscriber Investment Summit?

KS: Petroforte International Ltd. (PFI:TSX.V) is a very lucky shot for retail investors, simply because one of the top operating teams in Calgary is recapitalizing the company with retail money at a very low valuation. That never happens anymore in Calgary. Usually these companies stay private for a long time and don’t come public until they are at about $10 per share. These guys recapitalized at about a nickel per share. Basically, Petroforte is a startup growing very fast at a cheap rate. I made it my largest position because those opportunities rarely come along.

TMR: Another one?

KS: Manitok Energy Inc. (MEI:TSX) is a conventional oil play with a lot of gas. Now that gas prices are starting to move up, the company has been given a huge bonus. Manitok has a lot of leverage because even at very low gas prices, its wells were paying out in 8 to 10 months. It still has very low valuation despite the fast payback, so it is something that investors should know about.

TMR: Does it also have an advantage because it has a conventional well and doesn’t have to deal with the depletion rates that some of the fracking wells have had?

KS: That’s right. You are looking at very low depletion rates compared to fracked wells. A tight shale well could decline 65% in year one; these guys are closer to 40%. It makes a big difference in how many times you can pay the well back over the course of the life of the well. It is a big advantage.

TMR: What other companies will be at the Summit?

KS: Entrec Corp. (ENT:TSX.V) is a call on oil sands development and liquid natural gas (LNG) development. The company is holding its own doing oil sands work, but if the government in British Columbia gets its fiscal framework set for LNG, Entrec owns the largest crane company in northwest British Columbia, and would be a huge beneficiary. I think the company would be a top stock for a pop once LNG gets going.

Iona Energy Inc. (INA:TSX.V) was the largest junior oil growth story in the world last year. The company went from 1,500 to 7,500 barrels per day—all beautiful, light, high-profitability oil. Sadly, the market didn’t end up caring too much. But in 2014, as the production profiles of these wells become consistent, the market is going to reward Iona. Basically, the company is trading at 1x cash flow. When you buy stock at 1x cash flow, you are going to make money.

TMR: This is in the North Sea. Will the company have an advantage because of higher European prices?

 

KS: Certainly, working in the North Sea gives you exposure to international pricing, which is $10 per barrel ($10/bbl) higher than in North America. The asset that Iona drilled last year pays out in a year. When a well pays out in a year, and you’re trading at 1x cash flow, you are going to make money.

 

TMR: How about a couple more?

 

KS: High North Resources Ltd. (HN:TSX.V) is a startup that’s just finding its legs. It has the Montney asset, which pays back in about a year. All the production around Montney is paying out in a year, and there’s a lot of it. There is good well control.

 

High North is pretty much a no-brainer. It has the next three years of low-risk to no-risk drilling in the Montney oil play, where there are lots of services and high profitability. It is set. It’s done. It will just plunk down holes like clockwork for the next few years, then watch the cash register ring.

 

Lastly, Enterprise Group Inc. (E:TSX.V) has done a fantastic job of buying highly specialized, niche companies that have higher-than-average profit margins. When you do a rollup play like this—an aggressive mergers and acquisitions (M&A) strategy—what makes the stock go up is being able to drive organic growth out of it. This company has been able to do that better than any I’ve seen. It has surprised to the upside, achieving revenue jumps quarter after quarter. Not just revenue jumps, but real positive cash flow.

 

I’m quite impressed with what the Enterprise team has been doing. The feedback the company is getting in the market suggests that cash flow is going to triple this year, which indicates the stock should be $2. It’s currently trading at about $1. We will see what happens this year, but I like what the team is doing.

 

TMR: It’s a very diversified company. Is there one area that will drive growth going forward?

 

KS: Yes. Enterprise has a bit of an odd product to those outside the industry—the Hydro-Vac, a water-jet cutter. Super high-pressure water is used to cut the ground to find oil pipes and electrical wires, without cutting the infrastructure itself. It is mucky work, but it’s incredibly profitable. The company has plenty of demand from customers if it can get enough product.

 

TMR: Eric, you have a couple of companies you’ve invited?

 

EC: Barisan Gold Corp. (BG:TSX.V) is a fairly straightforward story. This is a straight-up drill play. The company is drilling a porphyry discovery called Upper Tengkereng in Sumatra, Indonesia. I’m not a huge fan of the country. I made that fairly plain when I started following Barisan, but the company put out a couple of good-looking drill holes, the best of which was basically 900 meters (900m) of 0.4 grams per ton (0.4 g/t) gold and 0.25% copper, which is pretty damn good as porphyry holes go. The area has the potential to generate the kind of holes that can give you 100–200% jumps in one shot. The last hole was also a good one, though not as good as the one quoted above. Assays for the bottom third of this hole are still to come—but it’s the next couple of holes I’m focused on. These holes will be drilled to the east, back in the area that generated the 900m intercept. I’m hoping to see another long, high-grade intercept. The stock trades at $0.20/share, which leaves plenty of upside. The area being drilled now, on the eastern side of this project, is not governed by the forestry ministry, which is tough to deal with in Indonesia.

 

TMR: When do you expect the next drill results?

 

EC: These are 1,000m holes, so they take some time to turn around. The bottom third of the last hole should be out in the next week or two. The next hole should be just about done, so I hope to see those results in early to mid-March. If the stock gets a little bit of a jump, the company may finance so it can add a second rig. That would help results come faster. The target is not going away. It’s the real deal. It’s just a matter of how big it is, how high of grade it is.

 

TMR: Another company or two?

 

EC: I have followed Nevsun Resources Ltd. (NSU:TSX; NSU:NYSE.MKT) for years. I was pounding the table on this one pretty hard late last year, because it seemed like it was getting sold down with all the other gold stocks, even though Nevsun’s Bisha mine in Eritrea was switching to copper production.

 

Bisha is a high-grade volcanogenic sulfide deposit. And the mine is very unusual in that it has gone from being a gold producer to being a copper producer; the company has gone below the supergene gold mineralization in the same deposit. It is different levels of weathering and oxidation. Nevsun is now into the supergene copper. It will be mining that for the next three or four years. The gold and copper are both very high grade. After that, Bisha will become a zinc mine, also very high grade. This thing generates tons of money.

 

Nevsun has had a good run in the last three to four months. Its stock has more or less doubled, up to about $4 now. But I expect Nevsun to produce 200 million pounds copper this year, with some gold added in. I would think its cash costs are going to come in below $1. It already has about $1.50/share in cash. It is generating tons of cash flow. It is paying a dividend. I think there’s room for that dividend to be increased from $0.14 this year.

 

The other thing that’s always possible is a move on the M&A side, because the company has the cash to buy up assets. I know management has been looking around for a couple of years. Part of the problem is that its own project is so good that management just doesn’t run across many assets that look better. Nevsun is a solid base metal stock that I like quite a bit.

 

Sunridge Gold Corp. (SGC:TSX.V) is an earlier-stage company in Eritrea. It just put out an updated feasibility study, and finished negotiations with the government mining company on a deal to sell its 30% of the Asmara project property. Working with the government is something you have to do in Eritrea, so getting that deal announced was important for the company. The feasibility study looks quite good. I think it’s financeable, but Sunridge is also a very distinct takeover target. I know companies are sniffing around because the company would be a nice, long-term, low-cost, base metal producer, and there aren’t as many of those around as you might think. They are in demand by larger companies.

 

TMR: It does look like a lot of investors got interested in the last couple of weeks. Lawrence, is there still upside in Sunridge? Do you feel the same way about the company?

 

LR: There is huge upside potential in this company. It’s trading at about 10% of the NPV of the project, based on the feasibility numbers and even taking into account the partner interest. Typical retail investors are nervous about the country. But Nevsun demonstrates that Eritrea is actually a good place to be: Projects are good, things work and you can make a lot of money. While Nevsun could take on Sunridge as an acquisition, I think it would like to be diversified into another country. But it still proves Sunridge has upside potential.

 

TMR: Eric, do you want to continue with another company?

 

EC: Columbus Gold Corp. (CGT:TSX.V) has a 5.5 million ounce (5.5 Moz) deposit in French Guiana called Paul Isnard. It struck a joint venture deal with Nord Gold N.V. (NORD:LSE) late last year. I don’t think the market completely understood how strong that deal was. Nord can earn 50.01% of Paul Isnard by spending at least $30M and producing a bankable feasibility study within three years. It’s important to understand that is not “or”—it’s “and.” Nord has to spend the money and do the bankable feasibility. And there are other payments involved, depending on the Indicated resource at the end. The bottom line is, given the size and type of that resource, I think Nord will be very lucky if it gets the bankable feasibility by spending only $30M. I think it’s quite possible to spend more than that.

 

On top of that, Columbus has a large set of properties in Nevada. A couple of the guys on the company’s board are old hands from Nevada, with several discoveries to their credit. The deal with Nord frees up some $8M to work on the Nevada projects. Lots of news should be coming soon.

 

TMR: Lawrence, will you have questions for the Columbus management team when you see them at the conference?

 

LR: The big question will be: “What exactly are the plans in Nevada?” I know the company is planning to drill three or four projects over the course of the year, with its own money and through joint venture partners. As Eric said, it’s got a very strong deal with Nord Gold. The joint venture puts Columbus in a very strong position to see the project through the feasibility study without having to commit any further money.

 

TMR: Before Eric goes on with a couple more, do you want to talk about a company that you invited?

 

LR: Graphite One Resources Inc. (GPH:TSX.V) has a big graphite project in Alaska. It’s probably the only large, high-grade graphite deposit in the U.S., which gives the company a really strong strategic position. There is a lot of concern about security of supply for graphite. Graphite One is in the best position to satisfy the U.S. domestic graphite supply situation.

 

The project is seen by some as being low grade, but that’s an average grade taken across the entire large deposit. Zones within that deposit have significantly higher grades; the company could easily compete with some of the higher-grade deposits by mining just part of the overall deposit, and it would still have size to be viable. The deposit is in a fairly remote area in Alaska, but it’s near tidewater, and that’s really important logistically. The company can get the big equipment and supplies it needs, and ship the product out by water.

 

Graphite One is really strengthening its management team. Jim Currie joined the team a couple of months ago. He’s a mining engineer with an impressive background. Beginning in February, Bob Cross joined the board. Bob also has an impressive background. He’s presently chairman of B2Gold Corp. (BTG:NYSE; BTO:TSX; B2G:NSX), a $2 billion company. These guys bring a lot of experience, but they also provide an important endorsement for the project and the company. It is still fairly early stage but looking very positive in that the company has a big program planned over the course of this year. With that, I’ll turn it back to Eric.

 

EC: I’ll move on to SilverCrest Mines Inc. (SVL:TSX.V; SVLC:NYSE.MKT), a company I’ve followed since inception. I trust its management team more than any other. The company made a great discovery at Santa Elena in Mexico and put it into production on time, under budget. SilverCrest is now in the midst of expanding that mine. The company produces silver at a cost of about $8.50 per ounce, which is one of the lowest production costs in the industry. It will have about a 50% increase in production this year and next year. It has very good cash flow and good profits coming.

 

Company management just picked up the project next to Santa Elena. It’s a very early-stage project, but it seems to be a Santa Elena lookalike. The company has another project—a large multimetal property called La Joya, with a silver equivalent resource of 200 Moz. I expect to see a preliminary economic assessment to prefeasibility come out this year.

 

This is a practical, seasoned management group that has put things in production before. It’s a company I’m extremely comfortable with.

 

TMR: How about one more company?

 

EC: I cover a company called Reservoir Minerals Inc. (RMC:TSX.V), which, along with its joint venture (JV) partner, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX:NYSE), made a pretty amazing high-sulphidation copper-gold discovery in Serbia. They put out a resource estimate of 65 million tons (65 Mt) of 2.6% copper and 1.5 g/t gold. It’s a really impressive discovery.

 

Mundoro Capital Inc. (MUN:TSX.V) happens to have concessions surrounding the Reservoir JV project and at the east side of the Bor mine complex, a well-known mining camp. The Tethyan mineral belt stretches through Serbia, into Bulgaria and down through Turkey, through the Caucasus. That belt has generated a lot of very big, impressive deposits. I started following Mundoro because I liked its set of projects and that geology. The company was early stage, and still is. It will get to the drill stage in the next couple of months. Mundoro has lots of room to find new stuff.

 

The Chinese state mining company recently “won” a project Mundoro had been working on in that country, but gave the company about $13M as a door prize. That means the stock is trading at $0.05/share less than its per-share cash value. So you’re paying nothing for the exploration potential. It is a very tight deal, with only 40M shares out. The chairman and one of the directors own about 10% of the company. Mundoro has a lot of room to move if it makes a real discovery.

 

TMR: This goes back to what we talked about in the beginning, which is a diversified pipeline. Mundoro is also in southeastern Europe and Mexico. Is one area more exciting to you than the others?

 

EC: I think the Serbian projects are the most interesting. The company is ready to drill on two targets in Q2/14. The area has infrastructure, and is very mining-friendly. The project in Bulgaria looks quite interesting, too, although it hasn’t put a lot of data out about it.

 

TMR: The Summit—where all of these companies are going to be in one place for investors to talk to—is being held in conjunction with PDAC. What are you hoping to hear at the conference? What trends will you be sharing with attendees?

 

LR: The mood is definitely picking up in the resource industry. We had a terrible couple of years, but interest is coming back. Most retail investors are shell-shocked. But the “smart” money—the veteran investors—are coming into the market now. The better-quality companies are already starting to move up on a fairly consistent basis.

 

Beyond that, there is a huge amount of money waiting in the wings. Part of that is U.S. private equity. These investors recognize the tremendous value to be found in the industry. We haven’t seen a lot of deals announced yet, but they’re looking at things. I think we’re going to see a lot of money from that sector coming into the resource space over the next few months, which will contribute to what’s already beginning to be an upturn for the industry. PDAC is a tremendous event. There are people from all over the world coming together in one place. Conferences are a very important venue, where investors can get face-to-face with the management teams.

 

TMR: Eric, are you looking forward to the same upbeat spirit?

 

EC: Yes. I am calling for 30%+ gains on the Venture this year. That sounds like a lot, but it is a speculative index. I pointed out to readers that for those gains to happen, all we really need is 10% of the companies on the Venture to do very well and carry the can for everybody. Another 20% will do reasonably well, and get financed along with the top 10%. Half of the companies will probably do nothing and, hopefully, a bunch of them will disappear. I’m quite happy to see some of the also-rans not around anymore.

 

Gold has reacted quite well to good news and bad news. The Chinese are strong in the market still. It looks like gold has put in a fairly important double bottom, and I think the Venture index has as well. I expect things to be a lot more optimistic. PDAC will be a chance to find out if management groups are building their own momentum. It’s tough to stay on track when you’ve gone through three terrible years. But the management groups that have been able to hold things together and raise money are the ones that will come out of the starting gate fast.

 

TMR: Keith, is it the same story in energy?

 

KS: No, it’s almost the opposite. I’ve been warning my subscribers that energy might be going into a trough. There is a lot of fear that ongoing production increases are going to cripple commodity prices, which would not be pleasant. I tried to a pick a group of companies that either have the teams or the assets—or both—that can make it through any bottoming that we might see in the cycle later this year.

 

TMR: Thank you all for your time. See you at the Subscriber Investment Summit.

 

Readers of The Mining Report can sign up for a complimentary ticket to the Subscriber Investment Summit 2014 for a limited time only. Register here.

 

Keith Schaefer is editor and publisher of the Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin, which finds, researches and profiles growing oil and gas companies that Schaefer buys himself, so Bulletin subscribers know he has his own money on the line. He identifies oil and gas companies that have high or potentially high growth rates and that are covered by several research analysts. He has a degree in journalism and has worked for several Canadian dailies but has spent over 15 years assisting public resource companies in raising exploration and expansion capital.

 

Eric Coffin is the editor of the HRA (Hard Rock Analyst) family of publications. Responsible for the “financial analysis” side of HRA, Coffin has a degree in corporate and investment finance. He has extensive experience in merger and acquisitions and small-company financing and promotion. For many years, he tracked the financial performance and funding of all exchange-listed Canadian mining companies and has helped with the formation of several successful exploration ventures. Coffin was one of the first analysts to point out the disastrous effects of gold hedging and gold loan-capital financing in 1997. He also predicted the start of the current secular bull market in commodities based on the movement of the U.S. dollar in 2001 and the acceleration of growth in Asia and India. Coffin can be reached at [email protected] or the website.

 

Lawrence Roulston is an expert in the identification and evaluation of exploration and development companies in the mining industry. He is a geologist, with engineering and business training, and more than 20 years of experience in the resource industry. He has generated an impressive track record forResource Opportunities, a subscriber-supported investment newsletter. Roulston has launched an investment fund, the Metallica Development Fund, to take advantage of severely over-sold positions in high quality resource companies. The focus of the fund is on companies with production and/or advanced-stage exploration and development projects—companies with potential for near-term recovery in value that also have potential for longer-term growth.

 

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DISCLOSURE:
1) JT Long conducted this interview for The Mining Report and provides services to The Mining Reportas an independent contractor. She or her family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The Energy Report or The Gold Report: SilverCrest Mines, Enterprise Group, Madalena Energy and Columbus Gold. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services or as sponsorship payment.
3) Keith Schaefer: I own or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: rdx Technologies, Petroforte International, Manitok Energy, Entrec Corp., Iona Energy, Enterprise Group. I personally am or my family is paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview.
4) Eric Coffin: I own or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: Nevsun, Sunridge Gold, Columbus Gold, SilverCrest Mines, Mundoro Capital. I never request or accept compensation for companies to be covered in the HRA newsletters. They are purely subscriber supported. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview.
5) Lawrence Roulston: I own or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: Sunridge Gold, Columbus Gold. I personally am or my family is paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview.
6) Interviews are edited for clarity. Streetwise Reports does not make editorial comments or change experts’ statements without their consent.
7) The interview does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer.
8) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise.

 

Streetwise – The Gold Report is Copyright © 2014 by Streetwise Reports LLC. All rights are reserved. Streetwise Reports LLC hereby grants an unrestricted license to use or disseminate this copyrighted material (i) only in whole (and always including this disclaimer), but (ii) never in part.

 

Streetwise Reports LLC does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported.

 

Streetwise Reports LLC receives a fee from companies that are listed on the home page in the In This Issue section. Their sponsor pages may be considered advertising for the purposes of 18 U.S.C. 1734.

 

Participating companies provide the logos used in The Gold Report. These logos are trademarks and are the property of the individual companies.

 

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How to Vet Graphite Investments: Stephen Riddle

Source: Brian Sylvester of The Mining Report  (2/18/14)

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/how-to-vet-graphite-investments-stephen-riddle

Stephen Riddle, CEO of Asbury Graphite Mills Inc., has been in the business long enough to have seen companies come and go, sometimes more than once. He brings a realist’s perspective to this Mining Report interview, and explains the questions he asks himself, as an investor, at each stage of mine development. He also comments on the supply-and-demand picture, and names the characteristics of his ideal graphite mine.

The Mining Report: Since 2005, prices for natural flake graphite spiked several times, but spikes have been less common since 2012. How long before we see another price spike or a sustained price run?

Stephen Riddle: That won’t happen until we see a strong increase in demand, or until something major happens in China, our largest supply base. Demand has declined over the last year or two due to the downturn in the steel industry, which means less use of graphite in the refractory industry.

We also have to watch what happens with new supply outside of China. The world would love to have additional supply outside of China, but if the graphite industry adds capacity too fast and demand does not keep pace—well, we know what happens when supply is greater than demand.

TMR: Dozens of new graphite equities are trading on exchanges around the world, but not one has brought a new mine into production. What should the absence of new mines tell investors about the graphite space?

SR: First, I would emphasize that just because graphite mining has a low capital expense (capex) compared to other minerals, investors shouldn’t assume that graphite mining is an easy industry in which to make a return on investment.

Second, public reports issued by the industry rely on much higher average selling prices per metric ton than I would consider realistic market prices. New graphite mines will most likely have to sell at below-market prices to entice end-users to change suppliers. In addition, real world demand is not what most people report; it’s typically less. Part of that is optimism, and another part is because most deals are kept private in this very small industry.

Third, junior mining companies assume it will be easy to sell out their full graphite output once it is mined and produced. Graphite is not like any other mineral. You have to sell all the qualities and all the particle sizes that you produce at the mine. This becomes extremely difficult.

For example, TIMCAL Stratmin Graphite in Canada closed last year because it couldn’t sell portions of its output. Why keep producing more graphite if you can’t sell all of your output? People think that graphite is easy to sell. It’s not. It takes graphite miners years to develop a customer base. Thus, companies need cash flow to cover any losses during that period.

TMR: How does Asbury Mills obtain its graphite?

SR: We buy some on an annual basis and some on a spot basis. We negotiate privately with graphite-producing mines all over the world.

TMR: Why do you negotiate with mines all over the world rather than a few located nearby—for example, in Canada?

SR: In most cases, it’s price. Like most industrial metals, graphite is a commodity and pricing talks.

TMR: So if you can get cheaper graphite of roughly the same quality from Brazil instead of Québec, that’s where you buy?

SR: Correct.

TMR: Stephen, what is your ideal, early-stage junior graphite project, in terms of geology, grade, infrastructure, agreements and such?

SR: My ideal project is a graphite mine that would produce at a 94–96% purity level. It would have as much medium (plus-80 mesh) and large flake (plus-50 mesh) as possible. The lower percentage of fine flake (minus-80 mesh), the better, since it’s the most abundant material in the market and thus has the lowest selling price. The mine would have capacity of about 15,000 tons, and its total costs would be below $400/ton.

TMR: What about infrastructure?

SR: Nearby infrastructure affects cost. You need to consider the freight-on-board cost and add on the freight costs to deliver globally. Only then can you compare your costs to the existing market price and determine how competitive you can be.

TMR: What accounts in the price difference, say between graphite from Brazil and Québec?

SR: Mining costs are the first factor. That goes to the type of ore being mined, the percentage of graphite in the ore and the percentage of overburden. All that factors into the average cost to mine a ton of graphite ore.

TMR: But there are high-grade mines in Québec.

SR: There are high-grade mines that have a high percentage of graphite; that’s a good starting point. However, if the costs to move the overburden and get the ore to the flotation plant are higher than those of a company with a lower-percentage ore, that can cancel out the cost benefit of a high-grade resource.

The second factor is the footprint of the graphite ore after the flotation is done. In other words, what percentage of the graphite ore is in the plus-50 mesh, minus-50-by-80 mesh and minus-80 mesh sizes? What purity level can be obtained through normal flotation, without chemical treatments that add cost? That will help determine the average selling price.

Take Northern Graphite Corporation (NGC:TSX.V; NGPHF:OTCQX), for example. Because it has a very high percentage of coarse, large and medium flake, its average selling price will be higher than that ofFocus Graphite Inc. (FMS:TSX.V) or Mason Graphite Inc. (LLG:TSX.V; MGPHF:OTCQX). Both companies have much lower percentages of large and medium flake and a much higher percentage of fine flake. Smaller flake simply has less value.

This is what distinguishes the graphite industry. If you mine nickel at 80% purity, you sell it at X price for 80% purity. If your purity is only 75%, it sells at X minus some small percentage. The graphite industry depends on both the size and purity level of the flakes.

There is another scenario in the industry. Hypothetically, if I produce 40,000 ton/year (40 Ktpa) of 98-carbon graphite, I would need to assess what the demand is for 98-carbon graphite. I might determine that global demand is 20 Ktpa. In that case, I would have to get 100% of the market to sell 50% of my output. I would then have to sell the rest at 96-carbon prices, to sell the other 50% of my output. The net result is, it will lower my average selling price to sell all the volume because there is not a big enough market for 98-carbon graphite.

TMR: In five years, will there be enough room for Focus, Mason and others to share the graphite space?

 

SR: It will depend on how many lithium-ion batteries all of us will be using. That, and other energy storage applications, is where increased demand will come from.

 

TMR: Is it realistic for junior companies to cultivate a new set of end markets now?

 

SR: I don’t think it’s realistic, no. To justify its existence, a junior mining company has to look at the traditional markets. It takes too long to cultivate new markets and you can’t justify the investment.

 

TMR: Graphene is one of the buzzwords in this space. Is producing graphene from natural graphite a theory or a legitimate business model?

 

SR: I wouldn’t justify a graphite mine based on the graphene market. The graphene market will take an extremely long time to develop products for everyday use. What’s more, a little graphite goes a long way in making graphene.

 

TMR: People argue that the graphene market may be small, but the prices are very high.

 

SR: There are two kinds of graphene. One is made from chemical vapor deposition, in which you make a graphene coating on top of another substrate, then remove the substrate, leaving only the graphene. Most of the graphene being used today is made that way. That is the graphene the electronic industry wants, because it’s ultra-high purity and can be easily controlled.

 

The lower-cost way to make graphene uses natural graphite as the precursor. That market will take longer to develop, but it will be a bigger market because that kind of graphene can be used in the more practical, higher-volume products that we use every day.

 

TMR: Do you have any particular concerns about the graphite market?

 

SR: My only concern is that most of the spherical graphite anode material used in lithium-ion batteries is made in China.

 

If I open a mine in Canada and I want to supply graphite to that market, most likely I will have to sell my graphite to the Chinese graphite anode producers. Today, China has a 20% export duty, thus current market prices include this 20% duty, so I would have to sell 20% below market prices just to compete on price, let alone any freight equalization.

 

Most companies making lithium-ion battery anode material are using the lowest cost graphite, that being the minus-80 mesh in a typical carbon of 94–96%.

 

TMR: What is the approximate global demand for graphite in lithium-ion batteries?

 

SR: Our market analysis shows that about 50% is synthetic graphite and 50% is natural graphite. Of the finished anode material after coating, we believe the market is around 80K metric tons.

 

TMR: What do you expect that to grow by annually?

 

SR: That’s a good question. Analysts projected a fast growth rate based on expectations for the pure electric vehicle. That market hasn’t grown much. What has grown is the hybrids, which use fewer batteries. I see the hybrid market growing; the electrical vehicle market less so.

 

TMR: Could graphite demand for lithium-ion batteries double in five years?

 

SR: It could. The question then becomes, which form of graphite—synthetic or natural—will be preferred?

 

The real, much bigger long-term question in the automotive market—the biggest consumer of graphite anode—is what does the future hold for anode material? Batteries take too long to recharge and only allow you to drive a certain distance before they need to be recharged. The battery industry has to come up with a better battery that can last longer and recharge in 10 minutes or so. Will those batteries be made with a graphite anode or some other form of anode material?

 

TMR: Recently, end-users have been adding graphene to polymers used in 3-D printing. Credit Suisse forecasts revenues from the global 3-D printing market will reach $12 billion ($12B) by 2020, up from a mere $2B in 2012. Can investors hang their hat on that?

 

SR: That is a potential market, but I wouldn’t open a new graphite mine based on it. Like the graphene market, it will take a long time to develop.

 

TMR: Focus Graphite recently signed an offtake agreement with a Chinese company for up to 40 Ktpa of graphite concentrate. Why haven’t more companies reached similar deals?

 

SR: First I’d like to congratulate the management of Focus for obtaining an offtake agreement. It’s the first in the industry to do so.

 

Most junior mining companies are not signing offtake agreements because major buyers want to purchase at market prices or, in most cases, slightly below market prices. The risk for graphite producers is whether the buyer is willing to guarantee a minimum price if the market price constantly changes.

 

In other words, nobody thinks really long term. No company wants to pay a premium for graphite if it thinks prices will drop in the long term.

 

TMR: Is that because end-users have seen more downs than ups in graphite, and rely on the spot market?

 

SR: Those of us in the industry have an idea of what we believe are the fair-market costs of the suppliers and what would be a minimum fair market price.

 

TMR: What do you think of the offtake deal Focus Graphite signed?

 

SR: My questions—and these are questions investors should ask—are: Is there a minimum price in the agreement? Is it a take-or-pay agreement? How, or can, the buyer get out of the agreement? Does the agreement cover all grades, not just those the buyer prefers?

 

TMR: Is 40K tons a lot?

 

SR: For the next two years, the market outside of China doesn’t need additional capacity in excess of 40K tons. If this is the only mine that gets underway, that amount should fit in well.

 

TMR: Asbury Mills has a long history in the carbon and graphite business. Have you ever seen hedging in the graphite space?

 

SR: Not too much. Asbury’s probably one of the few to hedge, because we’re not afraid to invest in inventory. If the price were really low, we could buy excess inventory.

 

TMR: How many tons a year does Asbury buy?

 

SR: Our usage varies depending on how much we want to participate in the commodity market.

 

We are involved in two markets for natural flake. One is the graphite trader market, where we drop-ship graphite directly from the mine to end-users around the world.

 

In the drop-ship business, in which our buys can change from year to year depending on the margins we’re willing to live with, we might buy 25–45 Ktpa.

 

In the other part of the market, we buy the natural flake grades and process the material before selling it to the end-user.

 

TMR: Are you familiar with other companies operating in Québec?

 

SR: Yes. Let me start by saying that we, and the graphite industry in general, want to thank the junior mining industry. Thanks to their work in funding, finding and quantifying graphite reserves around the world, they’ve found enough graphite to satisfy current and future demand for the next 200 years. That’s not just in Québec; there are more than 350 different graphite deposits throughout the world, and that does not include undeveloped deposits in China.

 

That doesn’t mean that all of them are economical, at least at today’s prices. But it tells you that the surviving graphite operations will have to be low-cost deposits that offer high-quality product and give the investor a fair return.

 

TMR: Another Québec player, Saint Jean Carbon Inc. (SJL:TSX.V), recently acquired Minmet Carbons. Is vertical integration the most effective way to build a profitable graphite company?

 

SR: The best way to build a graphite company is like raising a child. You start out teaching the child how to crawl. You’ve got to start out small and develop your customer base, keeping your capex and operating margins as low as possible, so you can have a margin.

 

TMR: But buying a company that already has a retail base would seem to be a reasonable approach.

 

SR: It depends on what the expertise of the retail base is. The expertise of Minmet’s retail base is selling carbon material, not natural flake graphite, to the steel industry. Could that help Saint Jean Carbon sell graphite to the markets that consume graphite, (i.e., refractory markets or other lubricant markets)? Yes, but that is not the expertise of the company Saint Jean bought.

 

TMR: How does Saint Jean compare with other players?

 

SR: It’s too early to tell. According to some of the company’s press releases, it has some veins in which the percentage of graphite is quite high. Finding a way to separate the ash from the graphite at a reasonable cost would speed Saint Jean’s way to market. The next question is: How big are the veins that contain the large percentage of graphite and is there enough volume available to justify an investment?

 

TMR: Would Minmet Carbons be a competitor of yours?

 

SR: Yes and no. Because we’re fully involved in all forms of carbon, Minmet is a competitor in some materials. At other times, it has been a supplier to us. We are more in the business of processing carbon, while Minmet trades and brokers carbon.

 

TMR: What do you know about Saint Jean’s early-stage project in Sri Lanka?

 

SR: Two or three companies are trying to reopen old mines in Sri Lanka. The country’s graphite production peaked in the ’40s and early ’50s. After that, demand dropped and the mines closed. The questions today are, can the mines be reactivated cost effectively, and can they compete with flake graphite market prices?

 

The Sri Lankan veins are very small but incredibly pure, between 85–99%. The graphite doesn’t need any further processing once it’s been separated from the rock walls. If the Sri Lankan graphite can be competitive with flake graphites out of China, it’s a justifiable business.

 

Currently, Sri Lankan graphite gets a premium, but only in very small niche businesses that have not been growing. I don’t see that changing any time soon.

 

TMR: In your last Mining Report interview in 2012, you mentioned Energizer Resources Inc. (EGZ:TSX.V; ENZR:OTCQX) and Northern Graphite. What’s happened with those companies since then?

 

SR: Northern Graphite has been reducing both its capex, which is around $100M, and its average selling price. One way to reduce your average selling price is to increase capacity, but then you have to sell the additional product.

 

Energizer is determining its expected footprint. By footprint, I mean the typical particle size breakdown of the coarse, medium and fine flake, and the purity level for each. When that is determined, the company can calculate realistic selling prices based on expected volumes.

 

TMR: Sherritt International Corp. (S:TSX), a nickel company, just went into commercial production at the Ambatovy Nickel mine in Madagascar. Does that enhance the chance of Energizer’s Molo deposit being developed?

 

SR: Yes. Sherritt’s experience is indicative of how difficult it is to operate in Madagascar. It cost Sherritt a lot more to get that nickel mine up and operating than was budgeted for.

 

The good news is that the government of Madagascar has become more mining-friendly, in a bid to develop its minerals, job market and value-added products. Still, it’s not an easy place to operate in, nor as low cost as people think.

 

TMR: Energizer just raised $7.5M, much of it for a feasibility study. What will investors want to see from that study?

 

SR: I’d want to see what the company thinks its footprint will be and based on that, its realistic cost and volume forecasts. Finally, what would be a realistic selling price to move that volume? I want to see whether the net difference between cost and selling prices would justify the kind of investment needed.

 

TMR: Are there three juniors that you consider solid investments in the graphite space?

 

SR: The better way to look at it is that Asbury, if we wanted to, could fund at least two mines. We haven’t found the right ones yet, but we’re looking.

 

TMR: You would become an offtake partner with the right company?

 

SR: Yes. We’ve probably looked at 15 or more. We could also be an investor, if the economics work.

 

TMR: What are your criteria for becoming an offtake partner?

 

SR: I want a company that can sustain the ups and downs of market prices for the long haul.

 

TMR: What do you think when you see an asset that has changed hands two or three times? When a new company promotes an old deposit that didn’t work?

 

SR: That’s the nature of the junior mining industry, especially public junior mining companies. First, the funding dries up. The company goes dormant. Then, somebody else is able to raise funding, reactivates the project and changes the name.

 

I look at companies that can survive long term. That means they have the right footprint, at the right cost structure, under the right amount of volume and the right management to make it happen.

 

TMR: Has enough changed for these companies to make money?

 

SR: In most cases, not enough has changed.

 

The change has to happen in China, where most of our supply comes from. Costs there are slowly increasing. The Chinese now have to spend more money and worry more about the environment. But costs haven’t gone up to the point where it really opens the door for a significant number of juniors to enter the market quickly.

 

TMR: Do you have any parting thoughts?

 

SR: I’m concerned that as an industry, we don’t add too much capacity outside of China too fast. We don’t want to kill each other off. We want to work together and make the graphite industry survive long term. We need to diversify supply, but we need to do it economically.

 

TMR: Stephen, thanks for your time and your insights.

 

Asbury Graphite Mills Inc. CEO Stephen Riddle, widely regarded as an expert in the graphite and carbon industry, is the fourth-generation leader of the privately owned company. Founded in New Jersey in 1895, Asbury Graphite is a processor and supplier of all types of granular and powder natural and synthetic graphite, petroleum and metallurgical cokes, anthracite coal, carbon black, carbon fibers and other inert materials. Joining the company as territory sales manager in June 1979, Riddle progressed to assistant sales manager (1984), sales and export marketing manager (1986), president (1995) and, in January 2011, to CEO. Riddle, who attended Lafayette College and Deerfield Academy, is a member of the Electrochemical Society, ASM International, the Casting Industry Supplier Association, American Foundry Society and American Powder Metal Institute.

 

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DISCLOSURE:
1) Brian Sylvester conducted this interview for The Mining Report and provides services to The Mining Report as an independent contractor. He or his family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The Mining Report: Northern Graphite Corporation, Focus Graphite Inc., Mason Graphite Inc., Saint Jean Carbon Inc. and Energizer Resources Inc. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services or as sponsorship payment.
3) Stephen Riddle: I or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I personally am or my family is paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview.
4) Interviews are edited for clarity. Streetwise Reports does not make editorial comments or change experts’ statements without their consent.
5) The interview does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer.
6) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise.

 

Streetwise – The Gold Report is Copyright © 2014 by Streetwise Reports LLC. All rights are reserved. Streetwise Reports LLC hereby grants an unrestricted license to use or disseminate this copyrighted material (i) only in whole (and always including this disclaimer), but (ii) never in part.

 

Streetwise Reports LLC does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported.

 

Streetwise Reports LLC receives a fee from companies that are listed on the home page in the In This Issue section. Their sponsor pages may be considered advertising for the purposes of 18 U.S.C. 1734.

 

Participating companies provide the logos used in The Gold Report. These logos are trademarks and are the property of the individual companies.

 

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Looking too Hard at the Gold Price…

By MoneyMorning.com.au

We used to spend a lot of time looking at it.

We’d watch the price closely.

It’s up. Why?

It’s down. Why?

What does it all mean? Should we be happy or sad?

And then we realised it was pointless focusing on it day in and day out. So these days we let others do that. From time to time we’ll look at the price, but then we’ll quickly move on.

We’re talking about gold.

It’s up 9.7% since the start of the year, which while good still doesn’t beat the performance of one cracking Aussie stock. More on that later, but first…

We realised a while ago that we were hopeless at predicting the gold price.

We also realised that we spent far too much time trying to analyse it. Gold is, after all, gold. That’s it. It’s nothing else.

So we stopped paying it so much attention.

Don’t get us wrong, we like gold. We own gold. And you should probably own gold too. But the thing that most people criticise gold for – that it doesn’t do anything – is actually one of the key reasons to own it.

Gold is Gold is Gold

Think of it this way. When you buy a share of a company today, it may not be exactly the same company tomorrow, next week or next year.

When you buy the shares, the company may be in good shape. But what if within weeks the company’s main product develops a fault, or a competitor takes market share, or fashions change and the company’s product is no longer desirable?

What you thought you bought may not turn out to be the same thing that you currently own.

The same goes for a property investment. You may buy it today assuming one thing, only to discover six months from now it’s something else. You may discover a termite problem, or that someone plans to build a 20 story apartment block next door, or that you need to completely strip out and replace the electrical wiring.

Do you see what we mean?

Compare that to gold. The gold bar you buy today will still be a gold bar tomorrow, next week, next year or 100 years from now. Just as the gold jewellery made in the Middle East 600 years ago is still gold jewellery today.

The fact that gold doesn’t change is one of its key benefits. That’s what has made it a popular choice as a medium of exchange for thousands of years.

It means that when you need gold to be gold, well, there it is. Trouble is, most of those who criticise gold don’t understand that.

Money Printing Doesn’t Equal Higher Gold Price

So, what is the latest news in the gold market? It’s a while since we looked.

But do you know what, having checked out the scene yesterday and today it feels as though we’ve never been away from it. The battle still rages about the point of gold, and whether it’s on the verge of another height-defying rally, or whether it will crash to earth with a thud.

Even the big banks, who usually move in lockstep when it comes to interest rates and stocks, can’t see their way to agreeing when it comes to gold. As Bloomberg reports:

This year’s rally with “flounder” absent a “more meaningful shift” in investor sentiment, Barclays analysts said in a Feb. 14 note. Goldman analysts led by Jeffrey Currie, the head of commodities research, said in a report two days earlier that gold will “grind lower” as U.S. growth improves, reiterating a forecast for prices to reach $1,050 by the end of the year.

Ouch! That would be close to a 20.4% drop from today’s price.

But not everyone agrees. According to the same report:

Today, UBS AG said in a report that U.S. clients are becoming “friendlier” to gold investing and that the price may trade in a range about $1,300.

Everyone has a problem valuing gold. Even the gold bugs would have to admit that. If the gold price was just about money printing, it would have to be at a record high today, because that’s where the US money supply is right now.

The following chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis proves it:


Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
Click to enlarge

But gold hit a record high in 2011, when the US monetary base was about half of what it is today. And the gold price is 30.5% lower than it was then.

So the gold price isn’t just about money printing. The chart is proof of that.

Still Better Than Gold

So what does move the gold price?

The same thing that moves every investment (gold bugs won’t like this): human emotion.

What moves the gold price from US$600 to US$1,900 is the same thing that moves a share price from $10 to $80. It’s the belief that the prevailing price is cheap compared to what the price will be in the future.

We’re sorry if that’s too basic for the Harvard educated pointy-heads you see on TV, but that’s exactly how it works.

That’s why we don’t see any point in over-analysing gold. Gold itself doesn’t change on a daily basis, what changes is the economy around it. That’s why it’s important to consider the investing options in the broader economy rather than a narrow focus on gold.

For instance, gold may have turned in a 9.7% gain since the start of the year, but isn’t there a better way to punt on a rising gold price?

It turns out there is. One of Jason Stevenson’s favourite resource stocks has piled on a 76.8% gain since the start of the year. In other words, it has beaten the gold price by nearly eight-to-one. And Jason tells me it could have further to go.

This is why gold investors need to think about more than just the physical metal. There are so many other opportunities to profit from a rising gold price.

After all, the point of investing isn’t an academic exercise on who’s right or wrong about the meaning of gold. The point of investing is to make money. And right now, despite gold’s good run since the start of the year it proves one thing: the best place to build long term wealth is still the stock market…as the eight-to-one outperformance of Jason’s favourite gold stock proves.

Cheers,
Kris+

Special Report: 2014 Predicted

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

Myanmar’s Untouched Natural Gas Reserves

By MoneyMorning.com.au

If I could put all of my money into Myanmar, I would. Myanmar is in the same place China was in early 1979, when Deng Xiaoping said “we have to do something new”. Myanmar is now opening up and it’s the next economic frontier in Asia.

Jim Rogers, commodities guru and co-founder Quantum Fund

 In 1962 Myanmar (or Burma as it was then called) was the single richest country in Asia.

It was fast on its way to becoming the second developed nation in Asia after Japan.

The country was abundant in rubies, oil, and valuable timber. It also had the largest qualified and educated workforce in Southeast Asia.

The main temple in Myanmar’s Royal City of Yangon even has a diamond the size of a fist sitting on top of the central spire!

In a way, due to its natural resources Myanmar was the El Dorado of Asia. El Dorado was the mythical South American city nicknamed the ‘Lost City of Gold’.

According to legend, El Dorado was abundant with gold. The tribal chiefs and tribe members all wore gold. Gold earrings, gold pendants, gold plaques, and gold crowns.

Attracted by the tales of riches, Spanish fortune hunters (conquistadores) risked their lives trekking through uncharted territory. But it was a futile search.

While local tribes used gold for ceremonial purposes, the amount of gold discovered by the Spanish conquistadores was nowhere near the amount promised by the legends.

It turned out El Dorado was a myth…it didn’t exist. But Myanmar isn’t a myth. It exists, and more than that, it potentially hosts the world’s fifth largest conventional natural gas field…

Under-explored Energy Oasis

That’s what makes Myanmar and the opportunity to invest in this ‘Real El Dorado’ an exciting story.
Already, Myanmar has 20 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas reserves. That’s worth around $106 billion at today’s natural gas prices. The great news is most of these reserves are still in place as Myanmar has only exported its gas for the past 15 years.

But that could be just the beginning.

Since the 1970s explorers have only drilled a total of 19 offshore exploration wells. This is an almost completely unexplored zone.

Experts suggest that in addition to the current 20 tcf of reserves, there could be another 80 tcf of undiscovered natural gas worth around $424 billion.

Add this to Myanmar’s other potential reserves and the slow freeing up of the economy, and it’s no wonder that commodities guru Jim Rogers would like to ‘put all of [his] money into Myanmar.

You shouldn’t take Rogers’ view lightly. He co-founded the Quantum Fund in 1973 with another legendary investor, George Soros.

He helped steer the fund to a 4,200% total return before he ‘retired’ at the age of 37.

So when Rogers says Myanmar is a great opportunity, I listen. But before we go any further let’s turn back the clock.

At the Epicentre of Growth

Myanmar has been ruled by a military dominated government since 1962.

The military rule has had a devastating impact on Myanmar’s economy. Due to its isolation from international trade, it has bypassed globalisation and missed out on many of the benefits of improved technology.

To illustrate this, only 10% of the population has access to mobile communications.

Compare that to Australia where almost all the population has access to mobile communications, and most of them use it.

In fact, a common saying about Myanmar is that once you land at the airport, you have to wind your watch back by decades.

But things are changing.

Recent once-in-a-lifetime changes to the military constitution means that ground breaking reforms could be on the way.

This would allow explorers to exploit these undiscovered oil and gas fields and lead to a boom for Myanmar’s repressed economy.

The possibility is so big that the growth potential for Myanmar today could be on a par with China’s economic growth from 1979 through to today. It’s that big.

And with today’s technology, Myanmar’s growth should happen much quicker than China’s amazing growth.

Marc Holtzman, chairman of Meridian Capital, a leading billion-dollar private equity firm, has been to Myanmar eight times over the last few years. He says the reforms taking place are ‘real this time, the genie is out of the bottle.

And the McKinsey Global Institute, a top-tier global management consulting firm, estimates that Myanmar’s economy could grow from US$50 billion today to US$200 billion by 2030.

That’s a compound annual growth rate of 9.68% – greater than China’s current growth rate of 7.5%. That would do wonders to help lift many of Myanmar’s 65 million people out of poverty.

But that’s not all. It’s also important to consider geography. Myanmar borders both China and India. Those two country’s populations combined represent 40% of the world population.

In fact, as the following map shows, more people live in the circled area than live outside it. It just so happens that Myanmar is almost at the epicentre of this circle:


Source: Reddit.com
Click to enlarge

This alone offers a great opportunity in terms of providing export markets for its natural resources.

So, I hope you can see the scale of the opportunity at play. An economy that’s set to quadruple in size over the next 16 years, one in which commodities guru Jim Rogers would invest all his money if he could.

While I don’t advise you to take Rogers’ advice literally (as in don’t put all your money into Myanmar) you should definitely take a look at the opportunities on offer as Myanmar opens up to the world.

Jason Stevenson,
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Ed note: The above article is an edited extract from Diggers and Drillers.

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

99 Problems… But Oil Ain’t One of Them

By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist, Casey Research

America has some serious problems.

Despite the fact that the United States spends $15,171 per student—more than any other country in the world—American students consistently trail their foreign counterparts, ranking 23rd in science and 31st in math.

The US also spends more than twice as much on health care per capita than the average developed country, yet underperforms most of the developed world in infant mortality and life expectancy. The US rate of premature births, for example, resembles that of sub-Saharan Africa, rather than a First World country. And if you think Obamacare is going to change that… I have a bridge to sell you.

K Street has a bigger influence on American politics now than Main Street, and economic key players like the TBTF banks, the insurance industry, etc., have nearly carte blanche to act in whichever way they see fit, with no negative consequences.

The US government is spending more money to spy on Americans and foreigners than ever before. Since August 2011, the NSA has recorded 1.8 billion phone calls per day (!)—with the goal of creating a metadata repository capable of taking in 20 billion “record events” daily.

More than one in seven Americans are on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)—better known as “food stamps.”

The list goes on and on.

But there is one problem that America doesn’t have—getting oil out of the ground.

After decades of declining domestic production, US producers finally figured out how to extract oil from difficult locations, whether that’s the shale formations or deposits under thousands of feet of water… and they’ve kept going ever since.

Today, the US is one of the few countries in the world that have seen double-digit growth in oil production over the past five years.

This presents some great investment opportunities for the discerning investor.

The oil industry’s new treasure trove, the legendary Bakken formation, has turned formerly sleepy North Dakota into one of the hottest places in the United States. According to the Minneapolis Fed, “the Bakken oil boom is five times larger than the oil boom in the 1980s.”

Unemployment in the state with 2.7% is the lowest in the nation; in Dickinson, ND, even the local McDonald’s offers a $300 signing bonus to new hires, on top of an hourly wage of $15.

Here are some more fun facts, courtesy of the Fiscal Times:

  • There are now an estimated 40,856 oil industry jobs in North Dakota, plus an additional 18,000 jobs supporting the industry. Between 2010 and 2012, Williston, ND, a town with a population of only 16,000, produced 14,000 new jobs.
  • While other US states are struggling, some even being close to bankruptcy, North Dakota now has a billion-dollar budget surplus.
  • The number of ND taxpayers reporting income of more than $1 million nearly tripled between 2005 and 2011—and that in a state with a total population of 700,000.
  • The low population numbers will soon be a thing of the past, though: the population in the oil-producing region is expected to climb over 50% in the next 20 years.
  • 2,000-3,000 new housing units are built every year in Williston, ND, but it’s still not enough to fill the need. Rents have gone from a pre-boom $350 per month for a two-bedroom apartment to over $2,000 today… the equivalent of a studio apartment in New York’s rich Upper East Side.

The entire “energy map” of the United States has been altered by the Bakken: the Midwest, rather than the Gulf, is now the go-to area.

And who profits the most? The pipeline companies that can quickly adapt to this new situation and the refinery companies that can use this readily available domestic oil.

Though the rest of the world is trying to catch up, the United States has a huge head start over everyone else. The advancements it holds in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling had been built on the back of one and a half centuries of oil and gas exploration and the thousands of firms that service the drillers and producers.

So far, other countries simply lack the experience and the infrastructure to even compete.

In fact, American companies have spent 50% more money on energy research and development (R&D) than companies anywhere else in the world. What’s more, they are exporting this technology across the globe, enabling other countries to unlock their own hydrocarbon reserves.

Obviously, they’re not doing this out of philanthropy; there is a lot of money to be made by licensing out their technology and “lending a helping hand.”

The biggest winners, hands down, are the energy-service companies that already know how to get oil out of US fields… and that apply these methods to other fields worldwide to boost production and reduce decline rates.

As the easy-to-extract oil depletes in the US and abroad, oil companies and governments are beginning to look at past-producing oil fields. As it turns out, the producing wells drilled in the 1970s and ’80s weren’t very good at getting every drop of oil out of the ground. With modern technology, however, it is now possible to access previously out-of-reach deposits. Even a mere 5% or 10% improvement in oil recovery rates means billions, if not trillions, more in revenues.

Rediscovering previously overlooked fields was what started the boom in the Bakken as well as the Eagle Ford formations… and other countries are beginning to catch on.

We believe that this new trend of applying new technologies to old oil fields is not a fad but here to stay. That’s why our energy portfolios are stocked with companies doing just that in Europe, Oceania, and even South America.

As it’s becoming clear that the era of cheap, light, sweet crude is nearing its end, the industry is adapting to this new reality of oil becoming more difficult to access. And if investors want to make profits in today’s energy markets, they, too, must learn to adapt.

Read our 2014 Energy Forecast for more details on what’s hot and what’s not in this year’s energy markets. This free special report tells you about the 3 sectors we are most bullish on for this year, and which sectors to avoid in 2014. Read it now.

 

 

 

 

Chile cuts by 25 bps, further cuts may be necessary

By CentralBankNews.info
    Chile’s central bank cut its policy rate by a further 25 basis points to 4.25 percent, as expected, and said “in coming months it might be necessary to increase the monetary stimulus to ensure that projected inflation will stand at 3% in the policy horizon.”
    The Central Bank of Chile cut its rate by 50 basis points in October and November and also said last month that further easing may be necessary in coming months.
    The central said the country’s economy had continued to lose strength, with output and demand growing less than the bank had assumed in December, particularly in investment-related sectors.
    But inflation remains in line with the bank’s 2-4 percent target range and the peso has depreciated while the pace of nominal wage rises has moderated in recent months.
    Chile’s inflation rate eased to 2.8 percent in January from December’s 3.0 percent while the peso has risen this month, trading at 547.8 to the U.S. dollar today, up from 562 on Feb. 4. But since the start of the year the peso has depreciated by 4 percent.
    Economic recovery in Chile’s trading partners is expected to continue in coming months, based on the U.S. rebound, the central bank said, adding that subdued inflation in these economies means that their monetary policy would normalize slowly.
    However, volatility in emerging markets has risen and oil prices have risen in the last month while copper prices had decreased slightly.
    Chile’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 1.3 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter for annual growth of 4.7 percent, up from 4.0 percent in the previous quarter.
    In its December monetary policy report, the central bank forecast 2014 growth of 3.75 percent to 4.75 percent and estimated 2013 growth of 4.2 percent.

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Candlestick Patterns In Technical Analysis

Article by Investazor.com

In what concerns the candlestick chart we have established the basics in our previous article Candlesticks in Day to Day Trading. This type of chart offers information regarding the price action in a limited time frame like the opening price, the closing price but also the highs and lows. The body and shadows of a candle can be very important because their interpretation is different from case to case.

You may have seen in our past articles that we used different types of candlestick patterns to confirm our trading position. The patterns can be used in strategies and can help the trader reduce his false signals and have a better turnover at the end of the day or month.

It is important to know that a candlestick pattern can be formed from a single candle or more than one candle. There are usually two types of candlestick patterns: continuation (they usually need gaps and are pretty rare on the forex instruments) and reversal (which we will discuss later on). A candlestick pattern has more power and can be more reliable on a bigger time frame resembling very much with price patterns. On higher time frames they will appear less than on lower time frames, meaning that on lower time frames they could also give lots of false signals.

In my day to day trading I have more often used and benefit from the reversing type of candlestick pattern and I will go on with describing some of the most important patterns.

Bullish Patterns

It is relevant for a trader to look after bullish candlestick patterns at low levels, after the market had a down move.

morning-star-pattern-18.02.2014Morning Star (formed of three candles.)

–          It’s first candle should be a downside one, as longer as better suggesting that the bears are in control;

–          The second one it is an indecision candle, meaning that it could be a Doji or a spinning top and it doesn’t matter the color. In the theoretical pattern the indecision should open with a gap down;

–          The third candle should be a bullish candle and its body must exceed at least 50% of the bearish candle’s body. It should open with a gap up after the close of the Doji/Spinning Top.

The psychology of this candlestick pattern is pretty easy to understand. The first candle means that bears are in control, the indecision candle suggests that a balance is in place and the third one means that bulls are taking control and the price could rally under their pressure.

piercing-line-pattern-18.02.2014Piercing Line (it is a two candles pattern)

–          The first candle should be a bearish (red/black) one, the longer the better;

–          The second candle should open with a gap down and its body should exceed at least 50% of the bearish candle.

This candle shows that at a low point the control of the price it is passed from the sellers to the buyers. In some conditions the signal given by this pattern could be very strong, still I believe that the next one is stronger.

bullish-engulfing-18.02.2014Bullish Engulfing (two candles pattern)

–          The first candle should be a descending one and also the longer the better;

–          Next candle should open with a gap down and its body should exceed the full body of the previous candle.

This pattern I believe it is stronger than the piercing line. When bulls take control from the bears, over price, their power is shown in the fact that the bullish candlestick engulfs the bearish candlestick. This is a pattern on which I have bet my money and didn’t disappoint me.

hammer-pattern-18.02.2014Hammer (one candle pattern)

–          This pattern is characterized by a small body (less than 10% of the full candle), a big lower shadow and a very small or inexistent upper shadow.

This is one of my favorite candlestick pattern, which I successfully used in different strategies and trade setups. It is very important for it to be found in a low and the lower shadow to be as big as possible. It shows that the bears tried to push the price very low. When bulls thought the price is very good, they start buying and pushed it back very close to the opening price. The color of this pattern doesn’t quite matter.

Bearish Patterns

Thea bearish type patterns signals sell opportunities. The patterns appear on tops after a rally and you will see that they the upside down images of the now-known bullish patterns.

evening-star-pattern-18.02.2014Evening Star (three candles pattern)

–          It’s firs candle is a rising candle confirming the up move;

–          The second candle should open with a gap up and draw itself as an indecision candlestick (Doji or Spinning Top);

–          The third and last candle of the pattern should be a descending one that covers at least 50% of the bullish candle. This one should open with gap up.

This is the mirror image of the Morning Star. Bulls are in control firs but the balance is equilibrated and this can be seen through the Doji/Spinning Top and after that the bears take control and the prices fall.

dark-cloud-cover-pattern-18.02.2014Dark Cloud Cover (two candles pattern)

–          First candle should be bullish (green/white);

–          Second candle should open with gap down and its body should cover at least 50% of the first candle.

It might sound familiar the two characteristics, it is because this pattern is actually the mirror image of the Piercing Line but with a different name. Buyers are control, but the wheel turns and at a certain price sellers take their place in the leadership.

 

 

bearish-engulfing-pattern-18.02.2014Bearish Engulfing (two candles pattern)

–          First candle should be a green/white suggesting a rising market;

–          The second should open with gap up and its body should engulf the body of the previous candle.

Being an engulfing, but upside down, the interpretation is quite the same. Bulls are in control but bears take over and the market has now a strong sell signal. As well as for the bullish patterns I trust more the bearish engulfing than the Dark Cloud Cover.

shooting-star-pattern-18.02.2014Shooting Star (one candle pattern)

–          This pattern is also characterized by a small body (<10% of the full candle), but this time a long upper shadow.

It is very important to be found after a rally. Bulls are trying to continue the trend but get to a price where bears are starting to act and put pressure on the price so it drops. As well as in the case of the Hammer, this pattern is my favorite from the bearish candlestick patterns.

More on candlesticks…

As you could see I have brought up, where it was the case, gaps. The candlestick patterns were discovered on a volatile and with less liquidity stock market. The gaps there were relevant, but if we put this patterns on a high liquidity market like the FX market we might have the surprise to not find these kind of reactions. It doesn’t mean that the patterns won’t work, they actually will have almost the same impact as for the stock market.

These are to be considered the most powerful and used candlestick patterns there are. Don’t think that technical analysis is limited only at these 8 patterns. You will find that there are also Hanging Man, Harami, Dragonfly and Tombstone Doji, Reverse Hammer and hundreds others.

I can say that candlestick patterns can be some strong weapons for a trader in the battle with the market. But if they are taken as they are it might happen that their actual probability to not be that high. In my next articles I will show some of my way in using Candlestick Patterns in day to day trading and help you make some interesting trading setups.

A line that I am always keeping in mind and I would like to share it with you is:

Candlestick patterns revers moves not trends!

If you will keep it in mind you will not fall in the trap to lose control over reality. A candlestick pattern will never signal with a high probability a trend reversal.

The post Candlestick Patterns In Technical Analysis appeared first on investazor.com.

MT4 Binary Options Facts

Since 2005 there has been one dominant Forex trading platform. That trading platform is MT4.

Currently over 70% of the retail Forex market is traded on the MT4 trading platform. Hundreds of Forex brokers and banks have integrated the platform into their trading systems to accommodate the public demand for MT4.  What was it about the MT4 platform that made it so popular? There are really two answers to this question.

From the broker’s perspective MT4 is relatively inexpensive and easy to deploy.  Brokers would not charge their clients a platform fee which allowed for rapid growth. The brokers would not sacrifice providing their clients with an inferior product either the MT4 platform has all of the bells and whistles most traders are looking for.

From the clients’ perspective and MT4 was a platform that was easy to use and also did not require a great deal of computer resources. A full charting package as well as being available in many different languages also makes the attractiveness of MT4 that much more evident. What really made MT4 attractive for the retail trader was the addition of expert advisors. This allowed traders to come up with systems that would trigger buy and sell signals and the MT4 expert advisor allowed these signals to be fully automated.

Prior to the popularity of MT4 many Forex brokers were using web-based interfaces. These web-based systems offered very little in terms of charting and analytics for the trader. A very similar situation exists today with regards to binary options.  The vast majority of binary option brokers offer their clients a web-based graphical interface. Once again this interface usually lacks any kind of market transparency or any type of charting. Until now that some select brokers offer MT4 binary options trading. This should not be confused with certain plug-ins or patches that are available but full binary options brokers integration with the MT4 platform.  Binary option traders can now trade both binary options and forex on the same platform. They can also develop and use expert advisors to test out their systems and use them for trading both for FX and binary options.

To learn more please visit www.clmforex.com

 

Disclaimer: Trading of foreign exchange contracts, contracts for difference, derivatives and other investment products which are leveraged, can carry a high level of risk. These products may not be suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) is available from the company website. Please read and consider the PDS before making any decision to trade Core Liquidity Markets’ products. The risks must be understood prior to trading. Core Liquidity Markets refers to Core Liquidity Markets Pty Ltd. Core Liquidity Markets is an Australian company which is registered with ASIC, ACN 164 994 049. Core Liquidity Markets is an authorized representative of Direct FX Trading Pty Ltd (AFSL) Number 305539, which is the authorizing Licensee and Principal.