A Negative Sentiment Towards the Single Currency Preserves

The EURUSD Can Drop to 1.3475

Having started the new trading week declining to 1.3507, the EURUSD was able to rise above the 1.3545 resistance throughout the day. This level serves as support again, limiting decline attempts. In connection with celebration of Martin Luther King Day the market activity was at a low level. A negative sentiment on the single currency is still kept, and in the foreseeable future, it may test support at 1.3475. A rise above 1.3600-1.3618 will weaken a bearish impulse.

eur




The GBPUSD Experiences Resistance at 1.6452

The GBPUSD declining to 1.6395 was bought, then the pair rose to the resistance level around 1.6452. The overall picture is neutral, with the likelihood that an increase to 1.6500 will be preserved. For this purpose the pound should overcome current resistance, otherwise, it will resume falling and support near the 63rd figure will be at risk again. Data on the UK labor market, which will be published tomorrow, may substantially affect the dynamics of the pair.

gbp




The USDCHF Can Increase to 0.9200—0.9220

The USDCHF found support at the level of 0.9089. From it the pair returned above the resistance around the 91st figure. Thus, a positive sentiment towards the U.S. dollar remains, that implies its rise to 0.9200—0.9220. A breakout of the last level will confirm the base formation and the development of an uptrend. In turn, a fall below 0.9000 will weaken a bearish impulse.

chf




The USDJPY Aims At the 105th Figure

The USDJPY is trading with a positive sentiment. Having found support around the 103.86 level, the dollar kept trying to rise above 104.25. In the Asian trading session it managed with it, as a result of this growth the level of 104.72 was experienced. The ability to consolidate above the 104th figure testifies about the preserved strength of the USDJPY bulls` and in the short run the 105th figure is likely to be tested again. Its breakout will put current highs at the level of 105.42 at risk. A fall below 104.00 will weaken a bearish impulse.

jpy

 

provided by IAFT

 

 

 

 

Hungary slows rate cut pace to 15 bps, 18th cut in a row

By CentralBankNews.info
   Hungary’s central bank trimmed its base rate by 15 basis points to 2.85 percent, its 18th rate cut in a row, as inflation continues to drop.
    The National Bank of Hungary, which cut rates by 275 basis points in 2013 and 400 points since embarking on its easing cycle in August 2012, did not immediately issue any statement accompanying its brief notice that the base rate was cut with effect from Jan. 22.
    The central bank said in December that “further easing of monetary policy may follow, but a reduction in the increment is likely to be warranted.”
    Initially, the central bank had cut rates in 25 basis points increments but then switched to 20 basis point cuts in August 2013 after global investors reassessed the growth prospects for emerging markets and the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled that it was considering reducing its asset purchases.
    Economists had widely expected Hungary’s central bank to continue cutting rates this month as inflation fell to only 0.4 percent in December from 0.9 percent in October and November, continuing the decline since September 2012 when inflation hit 6.6 percent.

    Last week Gyula Pleschinger, board member of the central bank, told the Wall Street Journal that Hungary still had room to lower its interest rates as the economic recovery remains fragile, inflation is low and the prospect of less stimulus from the Fed was no longer a threat.
    She also said that Hungary’s bond auctions were proceeding smoothly and the forint currency was trading in the usual range to the euro.
    Hungary’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 0.9 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter, the third quarter of growth after four consecutive quarters of contraction in 2012. On an annual basis, third quarter GDP grew by 1.8 percent, up from 0.5 percent in the second quarter.
    Despite Pleschinger’s confidence, the central bank has often expressed its concern over how investors’ view of the risk of Hungary can quickly change and how this is influencing the room for manoeuvre in monetary policy.
    Minutes from the central bank’s December meeting showed that seven of its board members voted to cut the rate by 20 basis points while two members, including Pleschinger, voted for a 10 basis point cut.
    Starting with the central bank’s easing cycle in August 2012, the forint has weakened and the pace accelerated in the first few months of last year. Between August 2012 and March 2013, the forint fell some 10 percent against the euro, hitting a 2013 low of 306.8 to the euro. Since then, the forint has been trading in a range between 290-300 to the euro though in recent days the forint has weakened further and was trading around 303 to the euro earlier today.
    The central bank has often said that it expects inflationary pressure to remain muted in the medium term due to weak domestic demand and low global inflation before slowly moving back toward the bank’s 3.0 percent target by the second quarter of 2015.
    The December inflation rate of 0.4 percent was reportedly a 43-year low.
    In December last year, the central bank’s governor, Gyorgy Matolcsy, said the bank could cut its rate by 2.5 percent but admitted lower rates than that were risky.

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Turkey to tighten policy, aims at 9% interbank money rate

By CentralBankNews.info

    Turkey’s central bank maintained its policy rates but said “additional monetary tightening was necessary” to ensure that inflation remains in line with the bank’s 5 percent target and the bank would raise its target for interbank money market rates to 9.0 percent from 7.75 percent.
    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has been tightening its policy since May when global investors started to shift away from emerging markets and has come under renewed pressure to raise rates further to shore up the lira currency as investors have become unnerved by a government corruption scandal ahead of this year’s elections.
    Further pressure on the central bank to tighten followed after data showed that Turkey’s current account deficit widened in November while inflation rose in December.
    The CBRT said data from the last quarter of the year showed moderate growth in domestic demand and exports and the current account, excluding gold trading, was expected to continue to improve in 2014.
   

GOLD Elliott Wave Analysis: Bearish Beneath 1230

GOLD 4h

Gold moved to a new swing high recently, to 1260, a leg that which can be considered as a final part of a recovery from 1181. We see move up from 1214 as potential ending diagonal placed in wave (c) that could complete recovery in this week, either at 1260 or 1265. An impulsive downside reaction back beneath 1230 would put bearish price action in play.

GOLD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

GOLD 30min

Gold has been very slow lately so we assume that sooner or later market will wake up. From a technical perspective strong reaction could be to the downside as we see recent upward price action in shape of a wedge pattern. It’s called an ending diagonal in EW theory that usually occurs ahead of a strong turning point. We however still need impulse down to 1232 to confirm any change in trend.

GOLD 30min Elliott Wave Analysis

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Gold Prices Drops from Six-Week High

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Gold dropped from its six-week highs on Tuesday, trimming recent gains as investors speculate over the impact the recent bullish streak may affect physical demand for the metal. Market participants are keeping a close eye on the next US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting which has also sparked speculations.

Gold deliveries for February delivery came in at 0.07% to $1,252.80 an ounce on New York’s Comex at the time of writing after climbing to $1,262.00 an ounce on Monday, the highest since December 11. At the same time silver futures lost 0.56% to $20.190 an ounce.

Meanwhile in China, which possibly overtook India as the world’s largest consumer last year; physical demand for the metal strengthened and lifted the gold from a six-month low of $1.181.40 on December 31.

Gold – US Federal Meeting

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are expected to meet for the next policy meeting scheduled for January 28-29.  In the last fed-meeting, the central bank decided to reduce its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $75 billion a month.

Investors are expecting the Federal Reserve to scale-back its monthly bond purchases even further at its next meeting, after the release of the non-farm payrolls data came in lower than expected.

“We’re likely to continue on a path of gradual, measured reductions in the pace of purchases, assuming the economy tracks as we expect it to,” San Francisco Fed President John Williams said in an interview earlier in the month.

 

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Asian Stocks Climbs as BOJ Begins Policy Meeting

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Stocks in Asia traded higher on Tuesday as the Bank of Japan begin its two-day meeting and China’s stocks dropped after the country’s central bank added funds into the financial system on Monday.

In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 index rallied 1.03% to 15, 802.85, while Tokyo’s Topix index climbed 0.38% to 1,298.81 points as the BOJ began its two-day meeting to review its monetary policy. The Japanese yen weakened against the greenback on Tuesday, heading towards the ¥104.5 mark.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.38% higher to 23,015 points at the time of writing, while South Korea’s Kospi index gained 0.02% to 1,954.21 points at the same time.

China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite edged up 0.2% to 1,995.22 points, after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added funds into the financial system on Monday.

Stocks – BoJ Policy Meeting

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) began its two-day meeting earlier today to review its semi-annual economic outlook and it’s expected  to maintain its forecast for the core consumer price index to increase by 1.9% in fiscal 2015. The bank is also expected to keep its fiscal 2015 target of 2% inflation.

Board members are expected to discuss the possible impact after the tax hike in April. The BoJ is expected to keep its outlook for the gross domestic product growth of 2.7% for the current year through March, 1.5% in both fiscal 2014 and fiscal 2015.

“The two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, which concludes on Wednesday, is unlikely to result in any significant changes to the asset purchase programme,” analysts from Capital Economics said in a note.”

Stocks – China

China’s mainland Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.6% higher. China’s seven-day reverse re-purchased rate declined 5.16% lower. The nation’s central bank is expected to conduct 180 billion yuan of 21-day and 75 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repurchase deal today.

 

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Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 21.01.2014 (EUR/USD, USD/CHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for January 21st, 2014

EUR/USD

Euro is still being corrected. Possibly, during the day, bulls may break latest maximum, but after that price may continue falling down towards lower fibo-levels at 1.3490. If later price rebounds from these levels, pair may start new and deeper correction.

As we can see at H1 chart, target of current correction is at local level of 50%. According to analysis of temporary fibo-zones, this level may be reached during Tuesday. If later price rebounds from it, I’m planning to increase my short position.

USD/CHF

Franc is moving very close to its latest maximums. During the next several days, price may continue growing up towards upper fibo-levels. If later Franc rebounds from this target area, bears may steal the initiative and start new and deeper correction.

As we can see at H1 chart, after rebounding from local level of 38.2%, price started growing up again. I’ll move stops below latest maximum as soon as pair breaks maximum. According to analysis of temporary fibo-zones, main target may be reached by Wednesday.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

 

 

Lehman Brothers Exacts Revenge, Rigs Market With Booby Trap

By WallStreetDaily.com Lehman Brothers Exacts Revenge, Rigs Market With Booby Trap

Avoid penny stocks at all costs!

At least, that’s what blue-blooded Wall Street types swear we should do.

By their definition, any stock trading for $5 technically falls into this classification.

When I talk about penny stocks, though, I’m referring to stocks that trade for less than $1 per share. By my tally, there are currently more than 5,000 such stocks in existence.

Granted, not all of these stocks are destined to be winners.

Indeed, I admit that the penny stock market is full of landmines. For instance, we shouldn’t invest in Lehman Brothers (LEHMQ) just because it’s a penny stock! But this market is also home to goldmines – stocks capable of quickly rallying 200%, 500%, even 1,000%.

And if we know how to sidestep the dangers, there’s truly a fortune to be minted trading penny stocks.

As I promised yesterday, I want to help you do just that by sharing my 10 rules for investing in penny stocks. So let’s get to it…

Penny Stock Rule #1: Administer the Scam Tests

After getting a “hot” tip about a penny stock, many investors commonly wonder if it’s a scam.

Anybody home? Think, McFly. Think!

If we have to ask that question, there’s usually a reason for it. Do yourself a favor and move on to a stock that doesn’t raise any such doubts.

Now, if you simply refuse to believe nothing is ever too good to be true – or you’re incapable of rational thinking when presented with a seemingly can’t-lose penny stock – apply this secondary scam test…

Verify that the company is fully reporting. By that I mean, make sure the company files audited financials and quarterly results with the SEC.

If a company can’t meet those simple requirements, the likelihood of it being a worthy investment is pretty much zero. Don’t take the chance.

Penny Stock Rule #2: Show Me the Revenue!

A cheap stock price is no reason to abandon sound financial analysis. Be picky when investing in penny stocks and insist on finding companies with solid and improving fundamentals.

With that in mind, we should be willing to take a bet on a young, innovative company – even if it doesn’t have any profits. But we should never compromise on sales.

Revenue is the only sure sign that real demand exists for its products. So if a company can’t show you the revenue, show it to the curb. It’s not worth your time or hard-earned investment capital.

Penny Stock Rule #3: Size Matters

There may be riches in niches, but not for penny stock investors.

We need market opportunities big enough to meaningfully increase sales and share prices, as well as attract mainstream attention in the form of a takeover offer. With that in mind, stick to penny stock companies with products or services that address a market worth at least $1 billion. That’s more than enough to do the trick.

Penny Stock Rule #4: Stick to “Smart Money” Magnets

Almost every company gets its start in the private market. And it stands to reason that the companies attracting the most private funds from leading venture capitalists and private equity firms hold the most promise.

By tracking these money flows, we can ensure that we’re one of the first to know about the next wave of visionary companies.

With that in mind, be on the lookout for penny stocks receiving fresh capital from the “smart money,” which includes insiders.

As we recently witnessed with Crossroads Systems (CRDS), it can be a surefire sign that good times are on the horizon. The stock hit a low of $0.69 on October 10, 2013. Shortly thereafter, a prominent insider and value investor started buying shares. Sure enough, less than four months later, the stock is up 315%.

Penny Stock Rule #5: Catalyst Required

An impending event can send a tiny stock through the roof.

Imagine owning a small pharmaceutical stock ahead of FDA drug approval – or a little software company before a major takeover. Such events can make us ridiculously wealthy, overnight.

When hunting for compelling penny stocks, we need to focus on companies with strong catalysts on the horizon with the potential to propel shares dramatically higher. If none exist, the stock will likely be worth a penny indefinitely, which makes it unworthy of our time or investment.

Penny Stock Rule #6: Be Old School… Pick Up the Phone

The information age has produced a generation of lazy investors. Their due diligence goes no further than a few mouse clicks and internet searches.

But I’m here to tell you that the internet is not efficient.

All publicly available information about a particular company cannot be unearthed on our computers. The surest way to verify an opportunity and find out more specifics about it is to pick up the phone! Yes, reach out and call someone.

While CEOs of multi-national, mega-billion-dollar-market-cap companies won’t give you the time of day, executives at micro-cap companies are much more likely to answer your call.

Penny Stock Rule #7: Bet Small to Win Big

By making small bets on penny stocks, we can limit our downside risk and ensure that a total loss won’t torpedo our entire portfolio. As a general rule of thumb, I never invest more than 1% of my total equity portfolio in a penny stock.

If you want to wager slightly more, that’s up to you. But don’t wager too much more, or else you’ll undermine any efforts to reduce risk.

Penny Stock Rule #8: Know Your Limits

Most penny stocks sport lower-than-average trading volumes. If we use market orders, we’ll end up paying more, which ultimately cuts into our profit potential.

Instead, use limit orders to buy penny stocks. And be patient. Penny stocks are notoriously volatile, which means we should never have to chase prices. Eventually, a dip in prices will materialize.

Penny Stock Rule #9: There’s No Crying in Baseball

When investing in such a speculative area of the market, we’re bound to invest in a few duds. It happens. So expect it.

As long as we’re only investing money we can afford to lose, and we limit our bets to small amounts (see Rule #7), there’s no reason to shed a tear.

Penny Stock Rule #10: Don’t Be a Miner

For whatever reason, investors love to go prospecting for penny stock riches by investing in developmental stage mining stocks. Particularly in Canada, where 68% of the companies on the Canadian TSXV exchange are in the mining and energy sectors.

Unless you’re a geologist with a big travel budget – and that’s not any of us – we’re no more qualified to make an investment decision in these types of penny stocks than a newbie prospector with a divining rod.

So don’t do it!

Bottom line: Follow these 10 straightforward rules, and your winners should far outshine your losers – thereby making hunting profits in penny stocks a worthwhile endeavor. Don’t believe me? Give it a try!

Ahead of the tape,

Louis Basenese

The post Lehman Brothers Exacts Revenge, Rigs Market With Booby Trap appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Lehman Brothers Exacts Revenge, Rigs Market With Booby Trap

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 21.01.2014 (EUR/USD, USD/JPY)

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for January 21st, 2014

EUR/USD

H4 chart of EUR/USD shows bearish tendency; closest Window is support level. Three Line Break chart and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm descending movement.

H1 chart of EUR/USD shows sideways correction within descending trend; closest Window is resistance level. Tweezers pattern, Three Line Break chart, and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm descending movement.

USD/JPY

H4 chart of USD/JPY shows resistance from closest Window. Harami pattern, Three Line Break chart, and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm ascending movement.

H1 chart of USD/JPY shows that correction finished after Inverted Hammer pattern. Bullish Three Methods pattern, Three Line Break chart, and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm ascending movement.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

 

 

EURUSD Daily Forecast 21 January

Article by Investazor.com

The Euro has moved up, testing the 1.3565 resistance. After it hit this high on Monday the EURUSD started to drop, consolidating itself between 1.3536 and 1.3558. A breakout above the resistance could trigger a rally to 1.3581, while a false breakout might send the price back to the local support or even lower to the next key support.

 

The post EURUSD Daily Forecast 21 January appeared first on investazor.com.