Month: December 2013

By CentralBankNews.info
    South Korea’s central bank left its base rate steady at 2.50 percent, as widely expected, saying the country’s economic recovery is continuing in line with its growth trend while inflation will be higher  but still at a low level due to stable international agriculture prices.
   The Bank of Korea (BOK), which cut its rate by 25 basis points in May, also said it expects the global economy to sustain its modest growth going forward with a downside risk from likely changes in global financial market conditions related to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tapering of quantitative easing and continued U.S. fiscal uncertainties.
    South Korea’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 1.1 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter for an annual rate of 3.3 percent, up from 3.2 percent, and last week a senior official of the BOK said growth in the fourth quarter was expected to be least 0.8 percent, bringing growth for the whole year to the bank’s forecast of 2.8 percent, up from 2.0 percent in 2012.
    “In Korea, the Committee appraises the economic recovery to be continuing in line with the trend of growth, as domestic demand and exports have both increased,” the BOK said, adding that the economy’s negative output gap would persist for a “considerable time going forward.”

    Korea’s inflation rate rose slightly to 0.9 percent in November from 0.7 percent while core inflation rose to 1.8 percent from 1.6 percent.
    The central bank targets annual inflation of 2.5-3.5 percent and in October cut its inflation forecast for this year to 1.2 percent on average and 2.5 percent in 2014.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

USDJPY remains in uptrend from 96.94 (Oct 25 low), the price action in the trading range between 101.63 and 103.39 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Initial support is at 101.63, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and another rise towards 105.00 is still possible. Key support is at 101.00, only break below this level will indicate that the uptrend from 96.94 had completed at 103.39 already, then the following downward movement could bring price back to 95.00 zone.

Provided by ForexCycle.com

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Today was a proverbial ‘rip snorter’ of a day.

Aside from the fact I almost landed on my backside (due to some icy pavement) exiting the Front Populaire Metro station, it was a brilliant start to the week.

LeWeb’s organisers certainly rolled out the big guns early on. After the obligatory welcome speech things got rolling right away.

And over the course of the day there were two people in particular that made my brain synapses fire a little more than normal…

Of course there were dozens of speakers today, each with a wonderful take on things to come. From Aldebaran’s NAO robots to the Uber taxi service there was nothing but innovators and technologists.

But two really shone for me. One of them was Fred Wilson. The other, Phil Libin.

Fred is a Director of Union Square Ventures (USV). USV is one of the leading Venture Capital firms in Silicon Valley. Fred was an early investor in Twitter, Uber and the only investor in Kickstarter.

Fred Wilson @ LeWeb 2013
Click to enlarge

So Fred knows a thing or two when it comes to seeing a billion dollar company in the making. But it was the principles he said USV apply when looking for amazing technology companies to invest in that really made an impression.

When thinking about the future USV looks at big macro trends and how they come together. Then with these trends they create a framework. With this framework they look at what companies are investable. It’s not necessarily the technology they invest in, but the great companies that exist within the big trends.

And when it comes to trends, one in particular caught my attention. It was the number one trend Fred believed was crucial to the next decade. Funnily enough, it’s a view we share with him.

Technology to Lead the Decentralisation of Power

He describes it as the, ‘transition from bureaucratic hierarchy to technology driven networks‘. In short, it’s decentralisation. It’s shifting of power from government and big business to individuals with the power of technology.

Technology driven networks are the very fabric of what society will evolve to over the next 10 years. Social networks are the beginning. The maker movement, the quantifiable self and immersive technology. These are a few examples of how it works.

As I mentioned, the other speaker to capture my thought processes was Phil Libin. He was mightily intriguing. Phil started Evernote back in 2008. The company has only just moved into its sixth year of operation.

You can expect Evernote to go public in two or three years’ time. And I’m telling you now it’s going to be as big as Wal-Mart. Actually, one of the best things you can do today to ensure you’re a part of Evernote’s success is to set up an Evernote account and start using it.

If you do one thing after reading this today, make sure it’s to get on the Evernote bandwagon. Why? Because Evernote is the definition of the new business model. It’s best summed up by the company principle, ‘We’d rather you stay than that you pay.‘

What that means is Evernote would rather you used their free services than left them and stopped using. And this is coming from a company that does no real marketing or advertising.

Phil Libin with Loïc Le Meur (Founder of LeWeb)
Click to enlarge

Hang on a second, so how does that make them a good company? Well ‘old school’ thinking would say that’s a flawed business model. Non-paying users eat up resources and time. But remember, Evernote is more than just a service…it’s quickly becoming a lifestyle brand.

A Brand, Not Just a Productivity Tool

Evernote started as a way to give ‘knowledge workers’ greater productivity with a little bit of elegance. But they’ve evolved. And from what I can see they’re gearing up to take on the likes of Kmart, Target and Officeworks.

You see Evernote recently launched a revenue-generating stream of business, Evernote Market. And in Evernote Market, you can buy socks, t-shirts, document scanners and tote bags.

The funny thing is when Evernote launched Market only three months ago it took them one month to reach $1 million in revenue. And in the last three months, they’ve increased their total revenue by 55% just due to Market.

How is that possible? Because they’d rather you stay than you pay. And 51% of their free users (the ones that don’t pay to use Evernote) make purchases from Evernote market.

Right now Evernote can’t keep up with the demand for the products in Market. So it stands to reason Market will grow. More products and more revenues. Evernote is a lifestyle brand, not just a productivity tool.

And with the way Evernote is heading I can see them getting big enough to take on major retailers in the next few years.

Now of course between Fred and Phil there were many more speakers with crucial information about the next 10 years. Too much to go through in one email.

But as I cover the next two days of LeWeb I’ll bring you what I see as the most important stories from the day. I’ll bring you more details in next Monday’s Pursuit of Happiness.

And if you haven’t already, join me on Google+ for exclusive content, pictures and video from the week here at LeWeb.

Sam Volkering+
Technology Analyst

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

By MoneyMorning.com.au

After last year’s strikes in South Africa, platinum has been very much out of the news in 2013.

Yet global demand has hit record levels in the face of dwindling supply. The price now sits below its cost of production, which points to further supply shortages. And funding for exploration has all but dried up.

The case for platinum looks compelling.

So is it time to buy?

There’s record demand for platinum

Demand for platinum has never been higher. According to Johnson Matthey, a record of 8.4 million ounces is needed this year.

Just over three million ounces of that is needed by the car industry for catalytic converters. Another 2.75 million is used in jewellery (the Chinese can’t get enough of it, apparently).

About 1.8 million ounces comes from use in other industries. And another 765,000 from investment – particularly the new South African platinum ETF.

In fact, demand has been steadily growing since 2009. Yet the platinum price has been steadily falling since mid-2011, when it flirted briefly with the $2,000 mark.

Platinum’s all-time high came in 2008 at around $2,300. It’s $1,385 today. Its high for this year was $1,740 an ounce, in February. Its low: $1,300 in July.

You’d think perhaps that there has been an increase in supply – but there hasn’t. World platinum mine supply was fairly constant from 2007 to 2011, ranging between 5.9 million and 6.6 million ounces. But in 2012, that fell to 5.7 million and it hasn’t rebounded.

Something like 75% of global platinum supply comes from South Africa, where production has been falling since 2011. In 2012, around 750,000 ounces were estimated to be lost to strikes, stoppages and shaft closures.

Estimates for the cash cost of extracting platinum range from about $1,400 to $1,700 an ounce. When you add the cost of building the mine (mines tend to be very deep), and compound deficits over time, platinum mining – at $1,380 – becomes a very expensive loss-making exercise.

A mine can only lose money for so long before it gets shut down. At least four have closed this year already. As Chris Griffith of Anglo American Platinum says, the industry is moving from ‘volume to value‘. In other words, only higher-grade (and so more profitable) rock is being mined. This all points to further supply falls in the future.

Meanwhile, although labour relations are in better shape than in 2012, they are still, as Griffith says, ‘some way from being normalised‘. In short, everything about South African platinum production looks fragile to me.

The other main producers are Russia, where production has fallen from 835,000 ounces in 2011 to 780,000 in 2012, and Zimbabwe, whose production rose from 230,000 ounces in 2009 to 400,000 in 2012.

Do you want to invest in Russia, Zimbabwe or South Africa, in a business that is, for the most part, loss-making? It’s hardly a story to get speculators slavering. Meanwhile, the performance of North America’s largest producer, Stillwater, over the past few years has been – shall we say – patchy.

One area of platinum production does get me excited – recycling. An old catalytic converter is far richer in platinum than any rock Mother Nature has given us. But the growth in recycling is still not enough to meet demand.

The demand-supply deficit will grow, says Johnson Matthey, to 605,000 ounces in 2013. At some point the above-ground stock will run out – and the platinum price will no doubt rocket.

But when?

What’s been holding back the Platinum Price?

Below we see the platinum price since 2004. I have drawn a red band across the $1,250-$1,350 price area which was resistance in 2006-7 on the way up, and has provided some support on the way down.

Price-wise it has been a fairly significant inflection area for platinum.

Source: StockCharts.com
Click to enlarge

On a risk-reward basis, there might be a legitimate trade here to buy platinum with a stop just below that red band.

The ratio of gold to platinum is also low by historic standards – it’s almost 1:1 just now (ie platinum costs about the same as gold). It’s not unusual for platinum to cost twice as much as gold. On that basis, it also looks inexpensive.

So why has the price been falling in the face of such bullish fundamentals?

Here’s a 15-year chart that shows platinum in black, and commodities as measured by the CRB index (so that includes grains, softs, metals and energy) in red. You’ll notice that the two trade in the same direction almost all of the time.

Source: StockCharts.com
Click to enlarge

Of course, there are periods where one outperforms the other. But for the most part, they’re dancing the same dance. The CRB is about 75% weighted to energy, grains, meats and softs – things that have nothing to do with platinum. Yet, where it goes, so goes platinum.

So we have this Catch 22. Commodities are in a bear market. They are trending down. Nobody knows quite when this will end.

On the other hand, there is quite clearly a set-up for a supply squeeze and higher prices. And platinum is not alone. The same set-up can be found in lead, zinc – perhaps even silver. Sooner or later these things are going to fly. And the companies that produce  them – if they can survive this mining bear market – will too.

The question is when? I’m guessing sooner rather than later. I’m bullish on oil. Too many essential metals are trading below their cost of production, with supply squeezes dead ahead. I say we see a good rally in commodities starting early next year. Today’s dogs are tomorrow’s winners and all that.

Platinum’s time will come again. And I don’t believe that time is far away. If you’re interested in investing, there are various physical-metal backed exchange-traded funds available.

Dominic Frisby
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: The future looks bright for this precious metal originally appeared in Money Week, UK

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

Source: Brian Sylvester of The Gold Report   (12/11/13)

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/james-west-falling-back-in-love-with-gold

There’s a saying that old love never rusts. James West, publisher and editor of The Midas Letter, might have broken it off with the gold space for a while, but he always knew he’d be back when the time was right. In this interview with The Gold Report, West talks about what has convinced him to start shopping for gold stocks again and the unconventional indicators he’s using to signal a buy.

The Gold Report: James, you took a leave of absence, so to speak, from the gold space, opting instead to focus more heavily on the oil and gas market. While you’re still in oil and gas, you’ve come back to the mining space. Why are you returning to the gold and silver business now?

James West: There’s been an overreaction. Some valuations are so beaten up that they defy all logic. The companies that I’m interested in have the following characteristics: They are in production or are going into production within 12 months; they have cash costs well below $1,000 an ounce ($1,000/oz), but preferably $900/oz or lower; they have a solid management team that is able to access capital on good terms; they still have a strong share structure; and they operate in a safe jurisdiction.

I wouldn’t say that I am prepared to proclaim that the worst is over and it’s time to go all-in on gold and silver stocks. There are still a lot of risks out there.

TGR: What sources of information are you using to inform your investment decisions?

JW: My ideas emanate from monitoring press releases and volume spikes, and obviously I follow successful management teams. I get attracted to companies that are suddenly active or trading at volumes outside of their norms. If a company intrigues me, I will research its share structure, insider ownership and cross-reference board members with other deals that they’ve been involved with to ascertain a track record.

Generally, if there’s slowly building volume over time without any news, that’s an indication that people who are involved with a project or peripheral to the company are aware of some aspect of the project that has not yet been made public and are starting to accumulate shares.

TGR: Tell us about some gold and silver equities you’re following, James.

JW: The one that shocks me the most is Colossus Minerals Inc. (CSI:TSX; COLUF:OTCQX). Colossus is near and dear to my heart because I was the first newsletter writer to cover the company in 2008 when it listed. It was one of my first research successes. It traded as high as $10/share at one point.

To see it below $0.50/share is shocking considering that not that much has changed since I first started covering it, except it now knows that it’s onto one of the highest-grade platinum/palladium/gold deposits ever discovered and it started production. Even if gold went down to $800/oz, this is a project that would still be very economically viable.

TGR: Any other shocking valuations?

JW: Klondex Mines Ltd. (KDX:TSX; KLNDF:OTCBB). Here’s a company that has very high-grade material in Nevada. It’s very advanced. The share price has been appreciating steadily since April from sub-$1 to the $1.55/share range. It is bulk sampling and on track to go into production. It just released a technical report on the Fire Creek project. The news just keeps getting better and better. It’s a safe investment for a gold mining company. And now with the definitive agreement with Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM:NYSE), investors’ patience is being rewarded.

TGR: President and CEO Paul Huet seems to be a driven individual.

JW: I’ve spoken to him at length on the phone. He was very forceful in his conviction about what was going to happen with the mill under his management. What he said was going to happen is exactly what happened. He made it very clear that he put his own money into this project and that he joined the company because he believed in it.

TGR: Let’s head to another company.

JW: I keep buying Confederation Minerals Ltd. (CFM:TSX.V). It has the Newman Todd project near Red Lake, Ontario. Over the course of a 1.5-kilometer strike length it’s hitting very high grades from 14 to 25 grams per ton (25 g/t) with many assays in the hundreds of grams per ton. About 95% of the drill holes hit gold mineralization better than 3 g/t. I would also note the company just posted a report from a structural geologist on their website. Have a look; it’s a game changer, geologists will know what I mean. Confederation is a company I’m comfortable holding.

TGR: What about silver companies?

JW: I like Tinka Resources Ltd. (TK:TSX.V; TLD:FSE; TKRFF:OTCPK) and know CEO Andrew Carter personally. Ayawilca, its high-grade silver-lead-zinc deposit, is in Peru—where I used to live for two years. There’s a very good possibility that the price of zinc is going to appreciate substantially in the near term, especially if quantitative easing fueled economic vitality continues to manifest itself.

TGR: Could the lead and zinc offset the cash costs or the all-in cost to mine the silver?

JW: Absolutely.

TGR: What’s the next significant event on the horizon for Tinka?

JW: There’s drilling on two projects, so the catalyst is going to be the next fabulous drill result. It’s raising $1 million ($1M) in a private placement. The outcome of that raise will better determine the timing of an updated resource calculation.

TGR: What’s another noteworthy silver play?

JW: Silver Bull Resources Inc. (SVB:TSX; SVBL:NYSE.MKT) in Mexico is just phenomenal. It’s got a huge silver deposit underneath a giant zinc deposit. It’s a highly valued deposit in a safe jurisdiction that could soon go into production. It’s had results of more than 10 kilograms per ton.

TGR: What did you think of the recent preliminary economic assessment?

JW: It’s great. The general rate of return was 23%, so it pays back in three years and it only needs $300M to go into production. Relative to some of the bigger projects out there, that’s not completely undoable.

TGR: Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:NYSE) said recently that Peter Munk, longtime chairman and founder, would be stepping down after the next annual meeting. Does that make Barrick more or less appealing to investors?

JW: How do I say this diplomatically? The only thing that could make Barrick appealing to investors, in my estimation, would be a complete reversal in the price of gold to levels above $1,500/oz. I don’t think that Peter Munk’s retirement is going to affect the valuation of the company positively or negatively.

TGR: Why do you think small-cap gold equities are a better play than large-cap gold equities?

JW: Small exploration companies have a microscopic fraction of the overhead that a Barrick-type company has. If a small company with a burn rate of $200,000/month discovers a 2 million ounce deposit in a safe jurisdiction and the cash costs are equal to Barrick’s, then the operating profit per share is going to be much higher than it would be in Barrick’s case, because Barrick has such tremendous overhead to maintain.

TGR: Are there large-cap gold stocks that are worth a look?

JW: If I were going to invest in a large-cap gold mining company for the relative security, I would opt for Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE) or Goldcorp Inc. (G:TSX; GG:NYSE).

TGR: Because of their growth profiles?

JW: They have less reclamation liabilities on their balance sheets and their strategy of acquisitions and execution is better handled.

TGR: You also follow mining equities that produce graphite, phosphate, uranium and feldspar. What kinds of opportunities have you unearthed in those commodities?

JW: I think I’m going to start to buy Graphite One Resources Inc. (GPH:TSX.V), which has an exploration-stage graphite project in Alaska. It’s a promising, 15,000-acre deposit that it is starting to drill.

Jim Currie, formerly of Placer Dome and First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM:TSX; FQM:LSE), is on the board of directors. Jim Currie is a great manager.

I’m especially excited about I-Minerals Inc. (IMA:TSX), which is a developing the Bovill Kaolin deposit, an industrial minerals deposit with kaolin clay, metakaolin, feldspar and quartz. Those are all considered low-value industrial minerals; however, in the case of potassium feldspar, or K-spar, the only other supplier is Imerys SA (NK:PA) and it’s only high-grade mine closed last month. I-Minerals is poised to become the sole supplier of potassium feldspar to the ceramics market for high-quality porcelain, tableware and medical applications.

TGR: Has it signed an offtake agreement?

JW: Not yet. I-Minerals released a prefeasibility study earlier this year and is in the process of developing a feasibility study. However, there are two majors in the industrial minerals space—Imerys (NK:PA) and Unimin Corp.—for whom this could be regarded as a “must-have” asset.

I-Minerals has also been contacted by more or less every major manufacturer of ceramics in the U.S. and by people expressing concern that they need their K-spar sooner rather than later. On the fast track, this deposit could be in production in 24 months.

I-Minerals has the highest grade of halloysite, which is a natural mineral nanotube. Carbon nanotubes are used in electronics, cosmetics and medicine. High-value carbon nanotubes go for as much as $250,000/ton. Hallosyite nanotube, which is essentially a kaolin flake with one water molecule added, is capable of replacing carbon nanotubes in many applications. It is anticipated that it’s going to be in demand as applications mature.

It’s an interesting project because it’s got a low capitalization requirement of $80M to get into production, and that includes sustaining capital for a 24-year mine life.

TGR: Are there some other specialty metal miners you follow?

JW: Mason Graphite Inc. (LLG:TSX.V; MGPHF:OTCQX) is one of my larger holdings. It has a project in Québec with grades up to 20% graphite and beyond. It’s heading toward a prefeasibility study. Benoît Gascon, Mason’s CEO, developed the entire sales channel for TIMCAL Graphite & Carbon’s mine in Québec, which encompassed more than 60 customers.

Arianne Phosphate Inc. (DAN:TSX.V; DRRSF:OTCBB; JE9N:FSE) is currently the subject of takeover talks. The company just came out with a $2 billion net present value on its Lac à Paul deposit. I’m forecasting a takeout price of $8–11/share. It’s currently trading at $1.60/share.

Agrium Inc. (AGU:NYSE; AGU:TSX) has stated publically that it is looking to acquire its own North America-based phosphate deposit. It doesn’t have much of an option outside of Lac à Paul. Somebody’s going to buy it sooner or later. Given the current price, it’s a steal.

Atico Mining Corp. (ATY:TSX.V; ATCMF:OTCBB) is a great opportunity because it’s a producing mine. The company has drilled more ore around it that is not part of the feasibility study. On Nov. 22, it completed the acquisition of the El Roble mine. Atico is a homerun in the making.

TGR: What is your forecast for the market going forward?

JW: Quantitative easing is starting to have less of an ability to generate economic numbers. The great inflection point where quantitative easing fails to generate any economic benefit can’t be too far off.

At that point, currencies will collapse and gold and precious metals will rise and dominate. That will defeat the futures market for gold and silver and let the physical demand drive the price. That’s when gold is going to sail through $2,000/oz. Whether that’s going to be tomorrow or next year or in 10 years, I can’t say.

TGR: You still like gold—is that the bottom line?

JW: I love gold and silver in the long term. It’s the only store of value since the beginning of recorded history that has lasted through every age of man. It’s the only one. All paper currencies have ultimately failed through the abuse inherent in hyperinflation. We are in massive hyperinflation now, so one would argue that we’re on the brink of the expiration of the viability of paper currencies in this particular age and gold and silver will return as the primary stores of value. It’s just a matter of time.

TGR: Thanks, James. It’s been a pleasure.

JW: You’re welcome.

James West is publisher and editor of The Midas Letter, and an independent capital markets entrepreneur and investor. He has spent more than 20 years working as a corporate finance adviser, corporate development officer, investor relations officer, media relations and business development officer for companies involved in mining, oil and gas, alternative fuels, healthcare, Internet technology, transportation, manufacturing and housing construction.

Want to read more Gold Report interviews like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you’ll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.

DISCLOSURE:
1) Brian Sylvester conducted this interview for The Gold Report and provides services to The Gold Report as an independent contractor. He or his family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The Gold Report: Colossus Minerals Inc., Klondex Mines Ltd., Confederation Minerals Ltd., Tinka Resources Ltd., Mason Graphite Inc., Arianne Phosphate Inc. and Atico Mining Corp. Goldcorp Inc. is not affiliated with The Gold Report. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services or as sponsorship payment.
3) James West: I or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: All. I personally am or my family is paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: I-Minerals Inc. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: I-Minerals Inc. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview.
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By CentralBankNews.info
    New Zealand’s central bank held its official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.5 percent, as widely expected, but warned that it “will increase the OCR as needed in order to keep future average inflation near the 2 percent target,” making a rate rise next year practically a foregone conclusion.
    Today’s guidance by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is much more hawkish than its statement in September when it said that an “OCR increases will likely be required next year.”
    The RBNZ, which has held rates steady since March 2011, also said the economic expansion “has considerable momentum” and “inflation pressures are projected to increase.”
    If the RBNZ were to raise rates early next year, it will become the first central bank in the advanced economies to tighten its policy stance since early 2011 after the Bank of Canada last month dropped its tightening bias, Norway last week delayed any rate rise by a year to the summer of 2015 and Sweden’s central bank first expects to raise rates by end of 2014, at the earliest.

    New Zealand’s inflation rate rose to 1.4 percent in the third quarter from 0.7 percent in the second quarter and the bank’s governor, Graeme Wheeler, said inflation pressures are expected to rise with the extent and timing depending on the exchange rate, changes in commodity prices and the degree to which momentum in the housing market and construction spills into broader cost and price pressures. 
    The RBNZ estimated that economic growth exceeded 3 percent in the year to the September quarter.    Gross Domestic Product rose by an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the second quarter, down from 2.7 percent in the first quarter.
    “New Zealand’s terms of trade are at a 40-year high, household spending is rising and construction activity is being lifted by the Canterbury rebuild and the response to the housing shortage in Auckland,” Wheeler said.
    Despite moderate growth among New Zealand’s trading partners, Wheeler said export prices for the country’s main commodities, and especially diary produce, have continued to rise.
    Fiscal consolidation and the high exchange rate of the New Zealand dollar is offsetting strong domestic demand but Wheeler said he did not believe that was sustainable in the long run.
    Early this year the RBNZ committed itself to keeping its policy rate steady through this year but then in July it warned that “a removal of monetary stimulus will likely be needed in the future.” In September it said that increases would likely be required in 2014 and now it has committed itself to a rate rises next year, with markets looking for an rate hike in March.
   
    www.CentralBankNews.info

Jyske Banks Senior Strategist Ib Fredslund Madsen looks at the major themes on the financial markets in 2014 and gives his view on the main assets.

• How will the markets cope with tapering of the stimulative measures of the central banks?
• Can equities keep up the impressive pace of 2013?
• And how will the euro/dollar relationship develop?

Legal information

Video courtesy of en.jyskebank.tv

By Sasha Cekerevac for Investment Contrarians

In 1938, Mexico nationalized its oil industry, taking over all aspects from production to final distribution. This ban on ownership by foreign companies continues today; however, changes are underway.

Under the leadership of Mexico’s new president, there is a growing desire and need for the knowledge and technical skills developed by foreign companies, many of which are U.S.-based, to stem the decline in oil production and revive the industry in that country.

I think this will be a tremendous investment opportunity for oil stocks going forward. Mexico still has a tremendous amount of energy commodities under the ground, but many need advanced technology to extract them. And U.S.-based oil stocks are among the leaders in the world when it comes to extraction technology.

By allowing foreign-based companies to help develop projects, oil stocks would profit from having access to new reserves, and Mexico would benefit from having billions of dollars in funding and access to those with top-notch technical skills.

There are several different types of oil stocks that would benefit from this investment opportunity. One company that I’ve liked for some time is Halliburton Company (NYSE/HAL), a global leader in the oilfield service industry.

While Mexico has not yet changed its legislation and we don’t know which companies will obtain these oil rights at this time, Halliburton has been extensively offering its services in Mexico for a number of years. I think it’s highly likely that Halliburton would benefit from more work as this investment opportunity opens up.

When investing in oil stocks, one has to consider the company’s current level of production, future reserves, and potential for growth in terms of exploration and acquisition abilities. Halliburton is uniquely situated in that it provides oilfield services, offering extremely advanced technological know-how to many other oil stocks and creating a synergistic investment opportunity.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

This is not to say that one should simply buy oil stocks immediately, as this type of investment opportunity takes many years to develop; it’s important to still wait for an attractive entry point. However, I would certainly add Halliburton to the top of my watch list when it comes to oil stocks.

Another one of the leading oil stocks to keep an eye on is Chevron Corporation (NYSE/CVX). Not only does Chevron have extensive knowledge in such areas as deepwater drilling, but it also has the capital needed to build and develop these oilfields. This type of investment opportunity requires capital, highly skilled workers, and advanced technologies.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Chevron is another one of those oil stocks that have shown an extremely strong performance over the past few years. I still believe there will be a tremendous investment opportunity for many oil stocks over the next decade, especially for firms that can increase their access to new reserves.

If Mexico does go ahead with reversing its ban on foreign firms, I think Halliburton and Chevron are two oil stocks that could be part of a new, multi-decade investment opportunity.

Source: http://www.investmentcontrarians.com/stock-market/landmark-ruling-in-mexico-a-boon-for-these-u-s-oil-stocks/3426/

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians

Oil prices are heading higher on the chart with the cash West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rallying back toward the $100.00 level after threatening to test $90.00.

Steady economic signs in the United States, China, and Japan—the three largest economies in the world—along with some muted growth in the eurozone and Europe are adding some spark to the oil futures… But hold on; doesn’t the buying seem somewhat premature?

I’d say so, as I believe oil prices may have limited upside unless something dramatic surfaces in the Middle East that impacts OPEC oil.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has also come out and said it would maintain its current daily production quota and not cut supply in order to add support to oil prices.

I doubt we will see $130.00-per-barrel oil prices anytime soon—unless, of course, tensions escalate in the Middle East and a war breaks out across a wider region that would impact the flow of OPEC oil. The current nuclear agreement in Iran has also added some stability to the region.

And the futures market for oil supports my view, too. A look at the oil futures actually shows expectations for oil prices should decline back towards $92.00 by the end of 2014, drop below $90.00 in 2015, and continue downward to $80.00 by 2018. The December 2022 futures contract points to $78.00-per-barrel oil.

The chart of WTI oil below shows the downward channel and recent breakout, which I doubt will have much holding power as it nears the $100.00 level.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Now while the prospects over the next eight years don’t look great, the actual movement of oil prices will obviously be dependent on other variables that will come into play, such as demand, industrial growth, geopolitical tensions, and the production of domestic oil via fracking.

It’s the rising production of domestic oil through fracking that could inevitably drive a downward push in oil prices of both WTI and Brent crude.

I believe that there’s a real possibility America could cut its buying of OPEC oil in the future as fracking oil production rises. Of course, the country could also supplement OPEC oil with extra oil from the Alberta tar sands, which continues to be a major issue in the country.

If this scenario plays out, we could cut the volatility of oil prices that has played a big role in the past but has now lessened with the reduced buying of OPEC oil.

Oil and gas magnate T. Boone Pickens is surely enjoying what he is seeing, as he has always been extremely vocal about cutting the country’s dependence on OPEC oil.

For the consumer, this may mean lower gasoline prices, and for businesses, it may mean lower energy prices.

The big winners will likely continue to be the oil companies that are undertaking fracking, such as Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE/CLR) and Whiting Petroleum Corporation (NYSE/WLL). I also like Schlumberger Limited (NYSE/SLB) and Halliburton Company (NYSE/HAL).

Source: http://www.investmentcontrarians.com/stock-market/oil-prices-to-reach-80barrel/3423/

London Gold Market Report

from Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Weds 11 Dec 08:35 EST

ASIAN and London dealing was quiet in gold Wednesday morning, with prices holding $10 per below yesterday’s sudden rise to 3-week highs above $1267.

 Silver also slipped but held onto more of Tuesday’s 3.2% gain to $20.45 per ounce.

 Asian stock markets fell more than 1% meantime, but European shares ticked higher with commodities as major government bonds held flat.

 After “gold prices soared on Tuesday,” said one brokers’ note overnight, “we [saw] gold trading relatively flat.”

 “We suspect that given the better-looking chart patterns,” says INTL FCStone, noting yesterday’s 2% surge, “the current rally in gold will likely continue until $1290.”

 Tuesday’s volumes in US Comex futures were double the 7-week low hit Monday, one of the 5 lowest daily turnovers of 2013 according to Reuters’ data.

 But rising only to 154,000 lots, Comex futures trading still lagged the recent 30-day average of 182,000 gold contracts.

 Junior gold mining stocks meantime had their best day since late October, with those making up the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) rising more than 4%.

 That only took the junior miner stocks to 1-week highs however, some 61% down from the start of the year.

 “Looking forward,” says ANZ Bank in Australia, “prices may find it hard to maintain yesterday’s momentum with Asian demand likely to taper off tomorrow.”

 “Trading is bound to be increasingly cautious,” agrees a note from Swiss bank and London market-maker UBS, “with investors becoming more and more defensive” ahead of the Christmas shutdown.

 “Given diminishing liquidity conditions heading into year-end, choppy price action should remain a feature for the remainder of 2013.”

 The volume of trading on China’s officially-approved Shanghai Gold Exchange rose today from Tuesday, but lagged Monday’s two-week high by value.

 Although prices rose, Shanghai’s premium to London quotes fell further, edging below $6 per ounce as the Yuan rose to fresh record highs against the US Dollar.

 Gold premiums in India meantime fell back to $120 per ounce according to local dealers, after there was “some delivery” from futures market the Multi Commodity Exchange.

 “That has put pressure on premiums,” Reuters quotes Bachhraj Bamalwa of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation.

 India’s imports of gold and silver bullion sank over 80% by value last month compared to November 2012, dropping to barely $1.0 billion as the government’s anti-gold import rules continued to bite.

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can fully allocated bullion already vaulted in your choice of London, New York, Singapore, Toronto or Zurich for just 0.5% commission.

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Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.