Month: November 2013

USDJPY finally broke to the upside yesterday, above former swing high but rally has then stopped at 99.40 from where we have seen a sharp almost 200 pip fall. If we take a closer look now on whole rally from 96.55 then we can see that recovery has unfolded only in three legs which is bearish structure that is pointing now lower, back to 96.55, especially once lower support line of a corrective channel gives way.

USDJPY Elliott Wave 4h

Elliott Wave Education: Zig Zag Pattern

A zig-zag has a 3 sub-wave structure labeled A-B-C. Generally Zig Zag moves counter to the larger trend. Zig-zag is one of the most common corrective Elliott wave patterns.

• 5-3-5 Sub-wave structure

• Wave A must be a motive wave

• Wave B can only be a corrective pattern

• Wave B must be shorter than wave A by price distance

• Wave C must be a motive wave.

• It appears in wave two or four in an impulse, wave B in an A-B-C, wave X in a double or triple zig-zag, or wave Y in a triple threes

Written by www.ew-forecast.com

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By CentralBankNews.info
    Russia’s central bank held its policy rate steady at 5.50 percent, as expected, and said there had to be a “more pronounced downward trend in inflation expectations” to ensure that inflation meets the central bank’s goals in the medium term. It omitted last month’s reference to inflation slowing further this year.

by John Paul Whitefoot, BA

Half of the U.S. workforce is partying like its 1998—and not in a good way. According to the Social Security Administration, the median wage in the U.S. in 2012 was $27,519.10, marginally better than 2011’s median wage of $26,965.43.

That said, the median wage remains virtually unchanged since 1998, when the median wage was $27,519.55 when adjusted for inflation. So actually, you made $0.40 less in 2012 than you did in 1998. But I digress.

The report shows that more than half of Americans earned less than $30,000 in 2012. Incredibly, 15% of working Americans took home less than $5,000, with an average amount of just $2,024.79. During 2012, the S&P 500 climbed 13%, illustrating that the majority of Americans are not benefiting from the so-called recovery we call the U.S. economy.

Fear not, for there is hope. Stagnant wages are not hindering everyone: the number of Americans pulling in more than $5.0 million a year in 2012 increased by 26.8% year-over-year to 8,982. In 2011, just 7,082 Americans earned more than $5.0 million.

These stratospheric numbers only take net earnings into consideration; they do not account for capital gains made on the stock market, dividend growth, etc. Whereas America’s wealthiest citizens turn to the stock market to pad their retirement savings, the majority of Americans rely on increasing property values, income vehicles, and pension funds to pave their way to retirement.

Thanks to a record run on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, America’s wealthiest have been seeing their holdings increase significantly since the Great Recession ended in 2007. On the other hand, thanks to the artificially low interest rate environment, fixed income investors (the vast majority of Americans) have seen their retirement savings decimated.

What has this economic divergence done to America? The widening gap means the majority of Americans are being forced to change the way they save, spend, and invest. Those looking to add value to their retirement portfolio this holiday season might want to consider taking advantage of the spending habits of the wealthy and luxury brand stocks.

When it comes to the playgrounds of the rich and famous, few are as glittery as the New York City fall auction season. Over the next couple of weeks, deep pockets are expected to help a large number of blue-chip artists like Warhol, Giacometti, and Rothko set new records. As a result, luxury brand stock Sotheby’s, (NYSE/BID), the only publicly traded auction house, continues to be bullish and is currently up more than 50% year-to-date.

Strong luxury spending has been keeping luxury brand stock Michael Kors Holdings Limited (NYSE/KORS) on the radar. Since debuting on the NYSE in December 2011, Michael Kors’ share price has climbed roughly 220% and is up 52% year-to-date.

Investors interested in diversifying their holdings and gaining greater access to a variety of luxury brand stocks might want to consider an exchange-traded fund (ETF) with exposure to a large number of luxury brand stocks.

The SPDR S&P International Consumer Discretionary Sector (NYSEArca/IPD) is an ETF that tracks the consumer discretionary sector of developed global markets. Holdings include luxury brand stock juggernaut LVMH Moët Hennessy – Louis Vuitton SA and Swedish luxury brand stock multinational retail clothing company H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB.

A brand-new luxury brand ETF worth keeping your eye on is the Renaissance IPO ETF (NYSEArca/IPO). Tracking the Renaissance IPO Index, one of the top holdings in the index is a 9.8% position in luxury brand stock Michael Kors Holdings.

Despite an anemic U.S. and global economy, the luxury brand stock market has been incredibly resilient. And as long as the stock market and wealth creation continues unabated, the luxury brand stock sector will continue to be bullish.

This article Four Ways to Profit from America’s Wealthiest Citizens was originally published at Daily Gains Letter

by Mohammad Zulfiqar, BA

Leverage, at its very core, is borrowing money to invest. If investors want to use leverage in their portfolio, it can be very risky. My friend, Mr. Speculator, who I met not too long ago, disagrees with this claim; he thinks it’s the greatest invention: “With leverage, your gains can be huge and your portfolio grows much faster,” he said.

As usual, Mr. Speculator isn’t very clear about a very important concept of investment management.

While Mr. Speculator is in favor of taking leverage, I tend to be very cautious about it. At the end of the day, it’s all dependent on the investor and if they want to take on leverage or not.

Leverage can be both beneficial and troublesome for the portfolio; it’s a double-edged sword investors really have to be cautious about. What it does is maximizes the gains, meaning profits are much bigger, but it increases the magnitude of losses as well, making them become massive really quickly.

Consider an investor who has $100.00 to invest and knows that he or she can purchase 10 shares of company XYZ. Now, if we assume over a one-month period that shares of XYZ go up by 10%, then without borrowing money to invest, this investor’s return will be 10%, or $10.00.

On the other hand, if we assume the investor borrows $100.00 on top of the money they already had, their gain would be 20%, or $20.00. This is because they had doubled the money—great, right? But if the investment goes down 10%, their loss will be 20% as well.

Is leverage necessary for the portfolio?

Investors who are investing for the long run should avoid borrowing money for investment, because it can wipe out the gains already made in the portfolio. This, in turn, can be a major setback that could force them to hold back on their plans, be it retirement, an education fund, or anything else for that matter.

Here’s what investors really need to consider before they use leverage: it’s great when it works in their favor, but when it works against them, their portfolio suffers.

For example, if an investor uses it and loses 20% of their portfolio, then their portfolio will have to increase by 25% just to break even.

If investors insist on using leverage in their portfolio, they should make use of risk management. One investment strategy investors should employ is making use of stop losses. This way, they are able to control their downside in case the trade doesn’t work in their favor. One thing they might want to note is that sometimes, stop losses may not be as effective; in options, for example. In that case, investors should use mental stops and know when to take the loss.

This article How Investors Can Limit Risk When Using Leverage was originally published at Daily Gains Letter

by George Leong, B.Comm.

Over the past year, I have heard a lot about how the Chinese real estate market was in a bubble and ready to collapse, similar to the state of the U.S. real estate market in 2008.

Anti-Chinese real estate pundits were saying to sell. “Chinese companies are crooks,” was a common theme and the communist regime there was not to be trusted by anyone, especially Americans, according to these talking heads.

While I do believe China has its issues and faults (heck, we all do!), the opportunity there for growth investors cannot be ignored; the country will continue to become a bigger influence in the global economy. I’m not saying the renminbi will become the go-to currency, but the economic influence of the country will only grow, especially in Africa and other emerging markets where capital is needed—we all know China isn’t hurting for cash.

The country’s real estate and financial sectors have yet to crash. The Chinese government does know a thing or two about wealth creation and financial risk. Trust me when I say it’s not the bunch of communist cronies running around with no sense of what to do that the anti-China pundits might have you believe.

China’s new leadership under Xi Jinping has a strategy in place to drive domestic consumption and reduce its reliance on foreign demand. Consumers in the country account for less than half of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), so it’s an area that is in focus, with plenty of room for improvement. With 1.1 billion people and over 300 million people in the burgeoning middle class, the potential is enormous. Retail sales are expanding at the 13% level, which is impressive compared to the United States.

Yes, China is stalling, with growth expected to come in at the seven- to eight-percent range for the next few years; but those numbers are still pretty good, especially since they’re some of the highest in the world.

Even a survey by GfK showed that Americans are becoming more convinced China is catching up as a leading world economic power. In fact, more than 25% of Americans see China as the world’s dominant power. (Source: Harjani, A., “Many Americans see China as dominant economic power,” CNBC, November 4, 2013.) By 2020, about 36% of Americans suggest the country will be the world’s dominant power, while the U.S. falls to 43% from the current 59%.

I would be looking more to investing in Chinese stocks listed domestically and on the Hong Kong exchange. The recent debut of Chinese initial public offering (IPO) Beijing 58 Information and Technology Co., Ltd. (NYSE/WUBA), or 58.com Inc., in the U.S. and the recent upward move in U.S.-listed Chinese stocks have fueled the demand for growth. On the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) side, I like iShares China Large-Cap (NYSEArca/FXI).

We are clearly seeing a shift to China. Investors would be wise to consider investing in Chinese stocks at this time.

This article Rising Number of Americans See China as Dominant World Power in 2020 was originally published at Investment Contrarians

by Sasha Cekerevac, BA

I had an interesting conversation the other day with a friend of mine who asked a very compelling question: with margin debt in the equities market hitting a new all-time high—$401 billion on the NYSE in September—is this a sign of a market top?

To find out what this really means, we have to dig a little deeper into how this can affect the equities market.

An increase in margin debt is really a story of investor sentiment. As the equities market moves up, this gives people more confidence and therefore increases investor sentiment. Many investors then borrow money to invest in the seemingly bullish market—this creates margin debt.

Now, this all sounds great on the way up, but in the end, the problem with higher levels of margin debt is twofold.

First, the very fact margin debt is increasing can be looked at from various angles. One is the obvious point of view that investor sentiment is becoming increasingly bullish on the equities market, so people are borrowing to get in on the action.

Another way to look at higher levels of margin debt is that while borrowing money to put into the equities market is bullish, as more money is chasing the same number of shares, at some point, if everyone is in the market, who’s left to buy?

Second, the real problem with high levels of margin debt is not on the way up, but when the equities market begins to turn. While investor sentiment can shift rapidly, the problem with investing on borrowed money is that it becomes far more painful on the way down.

This could lead to exaggerated moves to the downside. Borrowing to invest (and doing so at record levels) is like pouring gasoline on a fire. Sure, it can increase the size of the fire, but it becomes much more dangerous and could easily spread out of your control.

So when the market begins to turn, investor sentiment begins to shift away from optimism, which initially causes some selling pressure. But because this is based on borrowed money, this snowballs into even heavier selling pressure in the equities market.

Essentially, higher margin debt means the risks to the downside are increasing. While the equities market doesn’t necessarily have to sell off tomorrow, when it does happen, a higher level of borrowing will mean a faster descent.

This record level of margin debt is indeed a warning sign. Because the equities market has been pushed up by this additional flow of funds, any sign that investor sentiment is shifting will lead to a pullback in margin debt, and this leads to selling pressure in the equities market.

If these investors had adequate capital, they wouldn’t be borrowing money to put in the equities market. So when we see data showing a pullback among the investors who are the most leveraged, this will lead to large selling pressure.

But because the equities market is at such high levels with a record margin debt, this combination along with the shift in investor sentiment could lead to a significant and dramatic sell-off.

While timing the market is impossible from simply looking at margin debt, it is an additional warning sign. The record level of margin debt is an indication to me that we are closer to the end of this run in the equities market than the beginning.

Investors need to be aware of any shifts in investor sentiment and adjust their investments accordingly. The trigger I’m watching for is a decline in margin debt.

This article Stock Market Warning: Margin Debt Hits Record-High $401 Billion was originally published at Investment Contrarians

By WallStreetDaily.com

Another tornado could be swirling around the 42nd President of the United States, Bill Clinton.

With nothing but peculiar timing and circumstantial evidence, though, the American public will ultimately have to decide for itself.

Clinton, who served two terms from 1993 until 2001, has witnessed a meteoric rise in his net worth since leaving the presidency.

But did a secret buried inside the pages of an out-of-print book help build Clinton’s fortune? And can everyday investors use this secret to get rich, too?

In his final year of office, Clinton was paid a salary of $200,000.

By the time he entered private life in January 2001, he and Hillary reported a total net worth of only about $1 million. The majority of that came from Hillary’s pension accounts.

Clinton is now worth an astronomical $80 million.

But Clinton’s personal wealth explosion – from 2001 straight through the Financial Crisis – also happens to coincide with another fascinating storyline. That is, the unnatural price appreciation of a mysterious, out-of-print book.

Coincidence? Let’s examine.

Did Clinton own a copy of this extraordinary book? Or was the unusual symmetry between Clinton’s wealth explosion and the rise of the book just chance?

Some of the most respected publications on Earth, like Forbes, BusinessWeek and The Economist, have praised this work. And prestigious academic institutions, like Harvard, Stanford and Yale, have even sought the author’s services.

The book is said to contain a secret to always beating the stock market.
It sold for $9.95 on the day it was originally released in 1991.

Today, less than 300 copies are known to exist, which has pushed the price of the book to upwards of $3,000.

For comparison’s sake, the appraised value of John Steinbeck’s 1939 classic, The Grapes of Wrath (first edition), is $1,579.

Steinbeck’s 1937 classic, Of Mice and Men (first edition), is valued at $2,125.

These are two of the greatest literary feats in history, authored by a man who received the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1962.

So how can an out-of-print investment book be worth more than both of Steinbeck’s classics?

And is it merely a coincidence that Clinton’s net worth was shooting to the moon just as the book’s value was?

Although no one can say for sure, the book’s secret could help anyone who uses it turn $10 into $9,259, over and over again.

The book hit shelves in 1991 with very little fanfare.

It was well received by the Wall Street community, the press and investors alike, garnering praise for its simple strategy to buy low and sell high.

The book sold a few thousand copies, and then ended up in the sales bin to make room for newer books.

Soon thereafter, the book went out of print, without a whimper. It happens all the time in the publishing industry.

But this story wasn’t over.

As it turns out, the author, who’s now regarded as a genius, buried a secret inside the book.

The secret unlocks the stock market’s greatest riches, according to a new investigation led by the world’s foremost expert on the book, Louis Basenese.

“The author made a billion dollars on the merits of the secret inside the book,” says Basenese, adding, “There’s absolutely no reason an ordinary investor couldn’t aggressively build his own fortune.”

Through good markets, the author won.

Through bad markets, he still won.

Straight through the financial crisis, the author kept winning. (His assets have tripled since 2007.)

With every win, the author quietly moved further up the Forbes list, all thanks to the secret he hid inside the book.

“It’s the most brilliant piece of non-fiction literary work over the last 100 years,” says Basenese.

It’s also one of the most stolen books in the world.

Only 262 libraries report having a copy. As for the few libraries lucky enough to have the book, most prohibit it from ever being checked out.

Estimates suggest that fewer than 300 copies of the book remain in existence. Given that the book contains a secret to turning $10 into $9,259, copies are likely to keep disappearing.

Some believe that Wall Street has been destroying copies of the book for years to help guard the secret.

Others say the author himself is destroying the books.

Today, if you can even find a copy, the appraised value is an astonishing $2,500.

When directly asked if the book played a role in Bill Clinton’s personal wealth explosion, Basenese said the following…

“Although there’s no proof that Clinton used the book’s secret, you have to wonder how someone could build such immense wealth during the worst crisis in history.

“Mr. Clinton has a knack for being smarter than the crowd, which is why I wouldn’t be surprised if you found a copy proudly sitting on the 42nd President’s mantel.”

For more information about this mysterious book, click here.

Ahead of the tape,

Robert Williams

The post Is Bill Clinton Hiding a Giant Secret? appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Is Bill Clinton Hiding a Giant Secret?

By HY Markets Forex Blog

The price of oil is currently benefiting from a certain ‘risk premium’ that is related to the nuclear program in Iran, an energy expert stated recently.

Addison Armstrong, who works as senior director of market research at energy management advisory firm Tradition Energy, which is based in Stamford, Conn., recently told CNBC he believes that the commodity might be higher in value because of the turmoil that exists in the Western Asian nation.

“There’s a $10 to $15 ‘risk premium’ in the price of oil, and it’s been there for quite a while – just related to what’s going on with Iran, its nuclear program and the West’s reaction to it,” Armstrong told the news source. “So any progress that they make that starts to take away some of that concern about Iran helps to lower the price of oil.”

Iranian turmoil and the oil market

Individuals who want to make money by trading this commodity might benefit from knowing about the supposed boost that it is receiving from the current turmoil that exists in the Western Asian nation.

The perceived threat that has been created by the nuclear program of this nation may soon be alleviated. On Nov. 6, a senior official in the Obama Administration stated that if Iran is willing to temporarily halt its efforts in this particular area, the U.S. would be willing to lift some of the economic sanctions that have been imposed, according to The New York Times. The official told reporters this on the condition of anonymity. He specifically said that he was looking for a sign of good will from Iran.

“Put simply, what we’re looking for now is a first phase, a first step, an initial understanding that stops Iran’s nuclear program from moving forward for the first time in decades and that potentially rolls part of it back,” the senior official stated, the media outlet reported. “In response to a first step agreed to by Iran that halts their program from advancing further, we are prepared to offer limited, targeted and reversible sanctions relief.”

The official said that the concessions provided by the United States would depend on the actions of Iran, according to the news source. The individual noted that the goal for now would be to obtain an initial step toward greater peace, as the U.S. government was looking for something more substantial in the long run.

Iran close to resolution

Many experts are optimistic that an agreement will be reached soon, which has helped to put downward pressure on the price of oil over the last several months, CNBC reported.

Six Western nations were scheduled to resume their discussions with Iran on Nov. 7 in an effort to end the nuclear activity, according to Reuters. The negotiations involved have been helping to prevent the price of oil from appreciating too much based on other factors. The perception that the parties involved are closer to obtaining a resolution has helped to reduce the risk premium. Armstrong noted that while progress has been made in reaching an agreement, such an agreement is still far away, CNBC reported.

“There’s a long way to go until we get some sort of concrete deal,” Armstrong told the news source. “But the most important thing is that there are confidence-building measures on each side.”

Some experts have warned that the nuclear program in Iran has enjoyed enough progress to enable the creation of weaponry, according to The New York Times. The situation could potentially be complicated by Congress, which has been working to place greater restrictions on Iran.

Expert: Chances of resolution high

Kevin Book, head of research for Washington-based international energy policy firm ClearView Energy Partners, expressed his optimistic view of the situation, CNBC reported.

“We give slightly better-than-average odds to an agreement in principle right now,” he told the news source. Book noted the progress that has been made in the situation. “What we’re seeing is an unprecedented enthusiasm on the part of the U.S. government, taking steps that haven’t been taken in more than three decades … It is unlikely to succeed immediately, but the trajectory has been, against all odds, to continue.”

Agreement could create headwinds for oil

In the event that the market expert is accurate in his prediction that the situation will soon be resolved, such a development could serve to put downward pressure on the price of oil. Anyone who wants to make money trading this particular commodity may benefit from being informed about the latest news regarding the Iran situation.

People who want to make money from oil-related transactions might also feel more confident about engaging in such trades if they can get a good sense of what the outcome of the current negotiations will be – and how it will impact the price of this commodity.

The post Oil is inflated due to ‘risk premium,’ says expert appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

The Australian dollar traded higher against the greenback on Friday, boosted by the strong trade data from China, Australia’s biggest trading partner and on the news that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its growth forecast for the country’s economy.

The Aussie traded 0.14% higher at $0.9467 against the US dollar at the time of writing, while it stood at A$1.4170 against the euro at the same time.

RBA

The Reserve Bank of Australia released its latest quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday, stating the economy grew at a slower pace this year and the business conditions were below average.

The Bank expected the country to expand between 2% and 3% in the year to December 2014 compared to its previous growth forecast of 2.5% to 3.5%.

RBA estimated that the country’s economy would grow at a passive pace over the next year, “the unemployment rate is likely to continue to drift higher for a year or so, but is forecast to decline through 2015 as non-resource activity picks up,” the bank commented in a statement.

China Upbeat Data

China’s trade surplus advanced to $31.1 billion in October, up from September’s surplus of $15. Billion and beating estimates of $24.28 billion, the General Administration of Customs confirmed.

Exports were 5.6% higher from last year’s level, after an unexpected drop of 0.3% in September, according to data released from the General Administration of Customs. Analysts forecasted a rise of 1.5% in exports in the previous month. The import growth remained slightly stronger by 7.6% in October.

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The post Australian Dollar Trades Higher On Chinese Data appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

WTI crude oil prices were seen trading higher during the late hours of the Asian trading session on Friday after the world’s largest economy revealed  it improved as the US gross domestic product (GDP) in  the third quarter surpassed estimates.

West Texas Intermediate for December settlement advanced 46 cents to $94.66 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while December delivery for the European benchmark edged 33 cents lower at $103.13 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent crude was at a premium of $8.81 to WTI.

Meanwhile in China, the country’s trade surplus grew last month, indicating signs that the growth in the economy is stabilizing.

Exports were 5.6% higher from last year’s level, after an unexpected drop of 0.3% in September, according to data released from the General Administration of Customs. Analysts forecasted a rise of 1.5% in exports in the previous month.

WTI Crude Oil – US GDP

The third-quarter GDP for the world’s largest economy grew by 2.8% annually, according to reports the US Department of Commerce.

The report revealed that the fastest growth of the US economy since early 2012, as the housing sector saw an advance, boosting stockpiles.

The jobless claims dropped by 9,000 to 336,000 in the previous week ended October, compared to the revised 354,000 recorded a week earlier, a report released from the Labour Department confirmed.

WTI Crude Oil  – US Oil production

Oil production in the US and Canada were boosted by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The organization estimated production to increase to 4.9 million barrels a day by 2017, increased from its previous forecast of 1.7 million barrels.

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The post WTI Crude Oil Prices Advances On Upbeat US GDP appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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