My Favorite Picks for After the Market Corrects

clark14By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm.

When we last looked at Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK), the position had pushed to a new record-high on the stock market, and it’s doing so again.

Many Dow Jones transportation stocks continue to exude price strength and in my mind, this action is one confirming factor that the broader stock market can go higher.

There has also been a spike in countless new initial public offerings (IPOs), which only makes sense with the stock market at an all-time high and the world awash in liquidity.

But it is difficult to consider buying stocks right at their highs. If one came into money and wanted to create a stock market portfolio, there’s not a lot of value for your investable dollar. Even income-seeking investors have to contend with high prices for the best dividend paying stocks.

Big investors have been buying dividend-paying blue chips all year and are likely to continue doing so unless there’s a catalyst to sell.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) just announced a solid 10% increase in its cash dividend to stockholders. The company will pay $0.48 a share, up from the previous $0.435 per share, on January 1, 2014 to shareholders of record on December 13, 2013. This is the company’s 39th consecutive year of increased dividends.

Not surprisingly, ADP has been a tremendous stock market winner this year. The position opened in January around $57.00 a share. Now it’s closing in on $77.00, with Street analysts continuing to increase the company’s earnings-per-share outlook for its next fiscal year. (See “Why Cash Is No Longer King.”)

For allocating new monies to the stock market, I’m a fan of sticking with existing winners—those dividend-paying blue chips that have already done well with strong balance sheets and burgeoning cash positions.

Institutional investors will buy rising payouts from corporations in a slow growth environment. And with the broader stock market very much in need of a major correction, dividend income is a very attractive cushion.

Many blue chips have shown uncharacteristically strong performances over the last several years, as institutional investors sought out the safest names following the financial crisis and the subsequent recession. The marketplace recently loosened up its purse strings for more speculative issues.

But while money does need to be put to work, whether saving for retirement or living off investment income, I’m still reticent to be a new buyer in a stock market that’s been running so strong all year.

One of the best things that could happen to equities is a full-blown, meaningful correction that would create much more attractive buying opportunities for long-term investors. This would make stocks like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL), and PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) in the equity market universe genuinely worthwhile.

This article My Favorite Picks for After the Market Corrects is originally publish at Profitconfidential

 

 

 

Warning: Stock Market Margin (Borrowing) Reaches All-Time High

By Michael Lombardi, MBA

I’ve been writing in these pages how more and more time-proven stock market indicators are starting to scream “Danger!” for the stock market.

Investors are getting too bullish on stocks (an omen of lower stock prices ahead), as seen in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Investor Sentiment Survey. It shows 48% of investors were bullish towards key stock indices on November 7. Going back to just June of this year, the number of bullish investors stood at 32.97%. (Source: American Association of Individual Investors web site, last accessed November 11, 2013.)

Investors are flocking towards key stock indices, buying stocks in hopes they will go up in value. According to the Investment Company Institute, long-term equity mutual funds have been seeing inflows since the beginning of this year. (Source: Investment Company Institute, November 6, 2013.)

To me, this sounds all too familiar. I don’t have to go very far back to see what happened when the majority of investors turned so bullish. Remember 2007? Or the Tech Boom? In both of those situations, the common notion was that key stock indices would continue to soar and those who talked against it were ridiculed.

The reality is that the risks on key stock indices continue to increase. And the higher this market gets, I question how bad the market sell-off is going to be when it finally hits.

I’d say the “bubble” in the stock market has become the biggest I’ve seen in years, as evidenced by the amount of money investors are borrowing to buy stocks, which is often referred to as margin debt.

Leverage is a double-edged sword: When the stock market rises, investors profit heavily. But if the market falls, those investors who borrowed money to buy stocks tend to panic and sell. During the Tech Boom in 1999/2000 and again in 2007, we saw margin debt on key stock indices reach historical highs; subsequent to reaching those highs, key stock indices crashed.

With this said, below I’ve created a chart for my readers that shows the margin debt on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). In September of this year, margin debt on the NYSE (the amount of money investors borrow to buy stock on the NYSE) reached its highest level ever! It stood above $ 401 billion.

The above chart is further evidence we are being set up for a big market sell-off. Key stock indices have moved higher on very weak fundamentals. And the higher they go, the bigger the market sell-off is going to be. I remain very cautious.

Michael’s Personal Notes:

It’s “fairly good protection against fluctuation of the Dollar and risk diversification,” said the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, about gold bullion recently at Harvard University. He added, “Central banks which had started a program of selling gold a few years ago substantially stopped; by and large they are not selling any longer. Also the experience of some central banks that have liquidated the whole stock about ten years ago was not considered to be terribly successful from a purely money viewpoint.” (Source: “Central banks are unwise to sell their gold: ECB president Mario Draghi,” Mining.com, October 17, 2013.)

At the very core, the President of the ECB reiterated the point I have been trying to make in these pages for some time now: central banks are in dire need of gold bullion because the fiat currency they have created provides them with nothing but uncertainty. Gold bullion, on the other hand, keeps central banks’ reserves in check.

Dear reader, it’s a fact: central banks around the global economy are in a race to devalue their currencies to the bottom. They are printing money and keeping easy monetary policies in place to make sure that their currency value is suppressed. They think this act brings prosperity in the form of export demand. The central banks are wrong.

Our own central bank, the Federal Reserve, is printing $85.0 billion a month to bring economic growth to the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve has also kept interest rates at artificially low levels for years. But if we take out the strengthening of big banks and the rally in the stock market, we don’t have much left to show for the trillions of dollars in new money being created by the Fed.

Unfortunately, other central banks are doing the very same, and the list is getting longer each day. The ECB has lowered its key interest rate again—a surprise move that brought the value of the euro lower. But the eurozone crisis remains and continues to take its toll.

The Czech National Bank (CNB), the central bank of the Czech Republic, had promised to keep its key interest rate the same, but then decided it needed to intervene even further. The statement from the central bank said, “The CNB will intervene on the foreign exchange market to weaken the koruna so that the exchange rate of the koruna against the euro is close to CZK 27.” (Source: “CNB keeps interest rates unchanged, decides on interventions,” Czech National Bank, November 7, 2013.)

All this money printing and other easy money policies are bullish for gold bullion prices ahead.

While the press and many financial advisors have become negative on the precious metal these days (largely because prices stopped rising and have come down), I’m sticking to my bullish stand on gold bullion and my belief that the well-managed gold producing companies are presenting tremendous opportunities to investors.

What He Said:

“Interest rates at a 40-year low: The Fed has made borrowing as easy as possible, resulting in a huge appetite for loans and mortgages. We are nearing a debt crisis.” Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, April 8, 2004. Michael first started warning about the negative repercussions of then-Fed Governor Greenspan’s low interest rate policy when the Fed first dropped interest rates to one percent in 2004.

This article Warning: Stock Market Margin (Borrowing) Reaches All-Time High  is originally publish at Profitconfidential

 

 

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 14.11.2013 (GBP/USD, GOLD)

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for November 14th, 2013

GBP/USD

GBPUSD, Time Frame H4 – Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are influenced by “Dead Cross” (1); all are horizontal. Ichimoku Cloud is going down (2), Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart, and the price is on Tenkan-Sen. Short‑term forecast: we can expect resistance from Kijun-Sen, support from Tenkan-Sen, and attempts of the price grow up towards the cloud.

GBPUSD, Time Frame H1 – Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are close to each other inside Kumo Cloud (1); all lines are horizontal. Ichimoku Cloud is going up (2); Chinkou Lagging Span is above the chart, and the price is above the lines. Short‑term forecast: we can expect support from H4 Kijun-Sen and resistance from H4 Senkou Span A.

GOLD

XAUUSD, Time Frame H4 – Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen intersected below Kumo Cloud and formed “Dead Cross” (1); all lines are horizontal. Ichimoku Cloud is very narrow and going down (2), Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart, and the price is on Tenkan-Sen.  Short‑term forecast: we can expect growth of the price up to Kijun-Sen.

XAUUSD, Time Frame H1 – Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen intersected and formed “Golden Cross” (1); all lines are horizontal. Ichimoku Cloud is closed (2), Chinkou Lagging Span is on the chart, and the price is on Tenkan-Sen. Short‑term forecast: we can expect support from Kijun-Sen and growth of the price.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

 

Article By RoboForex.com

 

Wave Analysis 14.11.2013 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY)

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for November 14th, 2013

EUR/USD

Possibly, Euro is forming mid-term ascending trend inside wave [C]. Right now, pair is forming descending correction (2) of [C], after which ascending trend may continue.

Possibly, pair finished descending zigzag W of (2). In this case, after completing local ascending correction X of (2), Euro may continue falling down to finish double zigzag (2).

Possibly, price completed descending zigzag W of (2). If this assumption is correct, Euro is expected to start new ascending trend, may be inside local ascending correction X of (2).

GBP/USD

Possibly, Pound is forming new mid-term ascending trend inside large impulse (C). Probably, right now pair is forming descending correction 2 of (C), which may take the form of double zigzag or flat.

Possibly, pair is forming descending correction 2, the form of which isn’t quite clear right now. Probably, right now Pound is forming local ascending correction [b] of 2, may be in the form of zigzag.

Possibly, pair is forming ascending zigzag [b] of 2. If this assumption is correct, then after local descending correction (b) of [b], ascending trend may continue inside wave (c) of [b].

USD/CHF

Probably, Franc is forming final descending zigzag A-B-C of (5) of [C]. If it’s true, then right now pair is forming possible ascending correction B of (5).

Possibly, Franc is forming ascending correction B, may be in the form of double zigzag. If this assumption is correct, then after finishing local descending correction [x] of B, Franc may continue rising and form second zigzag [y] of B.

Probably, pair is forming local descending correction [x] of B, which may take the form of zigzag.

USD/JPY

One of possible scenarios implies that predicted target of ascending wedge (A) is between 105…106.50. In this assumption is correct, then later the pair is expected to start large descending correction (B). However, alternative scenario suggests that price has already started forming descending correction (B) and it may be falling down instead of growing up.

Probably, price is finishing horizontal triangle 4 with long horizontal correction [e] of 4. In this case, after completion of correction 4, it’s logical to expect ascending wave 5 in the form of impulse or diagonal triangle.

Probably, price is completing ascending wave (d) of [e], which may be followed by final descending wave (e) of [e] of 4 of correction 4.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

 

Article By RoboForex.com

 

 

Comstock Mining CEO: Goal of Doubling Production in 2014 Just First Step

Source: JT Long of The Gold Report (11/13/13)

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/comstock-mining-ceo-goal-of-doubling-production-in-2014-just-a-first-step

Comstock Mining Inc. is set to double its gold production to 40,000 oz in 2014 and may soon be able to boost production nearly fourfold. In this interview with The Gold Report, Comstock Mining CEO Corrado De Gasperis explains why the company’s sizeable resource potential, successful permitting achievements, low-cost drilling program and cultural commitment to safety and environmental responsibility are just a few of the reasons why investors should be following this attractive gold producer.

MANAGEMENT Q&A: VIEW FROM THE TOP

MANAGEMENT Q&A: VIEW FROM THE TO

The Gold Report: Corrado, considering the macro picture for precious metals, tell us where you think gold and silver prices are going and why.

Corrado De Gasperis: It’s hard for me to see gold staying below the $1,200/ounce ($1,200/oz) level for any sustained period. The all-in sustained costs for this industry are higher than many people understand, and getting higher due to lower grade, higher regulation, more difficulty to extract resources and some very high-risk jurisdictions, so we’re fortunate to have near-surface, higher-grade deposits in Nevada that enable the possibility for such low operational costs.

Ultimately, the fundamentals suggest strongly that the gold price must go up. The timing is impossible for me to predict, even with crystal balls, but the current psychology suggests near-term volatility, with an intermediate and longer-term gold price trend line being up, possibly surging up, as the markets realize the depth of the crisis in our monetary policies.

TGR: On Oct. 29, Nevada amended a water pollution control permit to allowComstock Mining Inc. (LODE:NYSE.MKT) to increase mineral material processing to 4 million tons (4 Mt) from 1 Mt. How much of an impact will that have and how quickly can you ramp up production?

CDG: Our newly modified water permit enables the full expansion of our heap leach this month, which allows us to ramp up production in the late-November, early-December timeframe. We’re looking to double our production as soon as that expansion is completed this quarter. The process will allow us to significantly drop our unit cost, increase our revenue and most importantly, generate sustained, positive cash flow.

TGR: Is that part of your cost cutting? What other cost cutting measures are you doing to increase the margins?

CDG: It’s a bit more like leveraging the existing cost structure for maximum throughput. Up until now, the priority has been ramping up and stabilizing the system. We’re doing many other things to achieve cost management and further efficiencies. For example, we’re looking very closely at the logistics of the mine operation to minimize wear and tear on our vehicles and shorten the cycle time and energy used for hauling. We’re also working to streamline our projects and enhance the way that we maintain our equipment. There’s a tremendous focus now on efficiency.

TGR: What would the eventual all-in cost per ounce be?

CDG: We’ve guided toward dropping our cost to about $750/oz. That will come from ramping up production and leveraging the fixed-cost base with this new permit and heap-leach expansion. As we continue to work on the efficiency of the system, we expect that it could even fall below $700/oz. What is remarkable about that performance is that we are still producing from our relative lower-grade range.

TGR: In the first two quarters, you reported some bottlenecks that hurt production. Was that linked to the heap-leach operation?

CDG: Actually, it was a little further downstream from there. Our Merrill Crowe facility was the one aspect of our system that wasn’t fully upgraded, meaning we were utilizing lower capacity facility. When we ramped up production, we identified a number of previously misunderstood physical constraints, including, for example, some undersized piping and even some equipment that was much less reliable than initially assessed. We invested a little over $1 million ($1M) in those various individual constraints. We debottlenecked them physically and upgraded the facilities and the equipment. Most all of our system was newly designed, including our crushing facilities. Since then, the whole system has been running extremely well.

TGR: Can you give us a progress update on the east side of Lucerne where the bulk of identified resources is located? What are some realistic targets for getting local, state and federal permits and what drilling is planned for the near future?

CDG: The east side of Lucerne is exceptionally exciting. We’ve hit on over a dozen drill holes with greater than a 1-ounce per ton assayed gold, with our highest grade hit being over 3.5 ounces per ton of assayed gold. We’ve also validated a concentrated structure that is 150 feet by 400 feet of high-grade ore that we’re calling the Chute Zone, which is a concentration of minerals greater than one of the historic bonanzas, the Woodville bonanza, located just about a thousand feet north of the Chute Zone. What is remarkable here is that we feel we are just scratching the surface of the discovery, as it remains wide open on almost all sides and at depth.

To address your second question, we already have most all of our state permits in place, as well as local permits for the west side. Expanding our local permits to the east in 2014 will be the next step for developing the east side. From a federal permit perspective, we’re in the preplanning stage for a larger districtwide objective, which really goes beyond expanding to the east. That districtwide plan should include an expanded heap-leach pad and the possibility of a mill, and the plans should come together midway through next year.

The vast majority of our validated resource is in the center and east of the Lucerne mine. The physical area is very large so that we still have meaningful exploration objectives there. We’re even looking to go deeper into, and past, the Chute Zone because, as previously mentioned, that resource seems to be open on all sides. We’ve identified about a $6M drill program for the next phase, although every time we’ve drilled Lucerne, so far, our discoveries have exceeded expectation. Increasing the scope of the drilling just increases the project’s potential.

TGR: Moving toward production in that area, what is the capital expenditure (capex) and timing and what form could that take? Are we talking about open pit or underground?

CDG: From a capital expenditure perspective, one of the best parts of our story is that we built a facility that could handle in excess of 4 Mt per year. The recent water modification helps align our permits to that level and we don’t really need many more capital purchases to increase production.

As for mine development, there is some infrastructure modification that would be justified. We can expand our haul road for increased production and may need a few more haul trucks moving forward. The Merrill Crowe upgrades are already up and running. As part of our districtwide plan, we will begin to drill deeper underground to get to those higher grades, so we’re undergoing various feasibility assessments that we expect will support, in an exciting way, a mill. We expect those assessments, as part of the overall district planning, to be completed by the middle of next year.

All of our current mining and the proposed expansion are on the Lucerne. It is all oxide ores and highly leachable. We expect to need a modestly sized mill to complement the $3M heap-leach investment and that would give us a dual platform to process our lower-grade oxide ores through the heap leach and higher-grade oxide ores, potentially sulfide ores, through the mill.

TGR: How about an update on the west side? What permitting are you doing there and what drilling?

CDG: The west side is positively impacted by the new water control permit because it’s allowed us to ramp-up production. Most of the drilling that we’re doing in the west side is for blasting and mining activities and, to some degree, expanding of the boundaries to the north. We are waiting for a right-of-way permit that is in its later stages with the Bureau of Land Management to expand the haul road, which will also help us optimize the logistics of mining on the west side. We are not in need of any other permits for the west side.

TGR: What are the production plans on that side?

CDG: Our current permits will allow us to go from producing 20,000 oz (20 Koz) gold equivalent this year to producing over 40 Koz gold equivalent next year, though that’s just an intermediate step because we’re permitted to do more than those levels. The increase is pretty meaningful because 40 Koz gold equivalent is about 35,000 oz of gold and about 350 Koz of silver.

That’s an important step for next year, because it is profitable for us. Ultimately Lucerne should be able to do at least 75–80 Koz gold equivalent. That’s consistent with our current grade profile and operating closer to the 4 Mt per year operation that the water control permit now authorizes, but if the grade profile continues to improve to the east, we could achieve 90–100 Koz per annum from that rate of throughput.

Even at the low end of those ranges, 75 Koz per year, we’re really talking about the possibility of 150 Koz per year, if we could replicate that production from our second possible mine, the Dayton mine. Dayton is in a different county and we have really just started the pre-permitting activities there, but from our initial drilling and metallurgical results, all of which are published, the possibilities look very good.

TGR: Can you give us an update on progress at Dayton?

CDG: Dayton has a current, published resource of about 500 Koz gold equivalent. Our last drill program hit significant mineralization on 63 out of 64 holes and included meaningfully higher grades. We have a $4M second-phase drilling program that we believe would sufficiently develop mine plan scenarios and give us most of the prerequisite information to apply for a mining permit.

Our land position in the district contains about six miles of contiguous mineralized trend that we validated through a geological structural control from top to bottom. There are really seven major target areas, with the Lucerne being the centerpiece and Dayton just south of it. We also have the Spring Valley project, south still of the Dayton; the Oest, sandwiched in between Lucerne and Dayton; the Occidental; and two additional targets, all to the north of Lucerne, that are all really exciting from a high-grade and a concentrated resource perspective.

Our business plan is driving us to develop Lucerne and Dayton first, but we’re just as eager to get to Spring Valley and the other five targets.

TGR: You were previously at Barzel Industries Inc. and GrafTech International Ltd. What impact does your background and the experience of the rest of your management team and the workforce in Nevada have on Comstock’s prospects?

CDG: I believe our diverse industrial experiences complement each other wonderfully. I personally have over 25 years of heavy industrial manufacturing experience tied almost solely to metals and mining. I believe I bring a very objective, systems-based management approach to the organization. As a system, or an interdependent team, if you will, we put a lot of emphasis on planning and scheduling, and we have worked very hard to put a quality system in place. We’re always looking to improve and grow.

Doing things in a coordinated way, in a quality way, ultimately inspires a culture of continuous improvement. The ability to challenge assumptions openly creates not just a productive and effective environment, but a learning environment. If people have mutual respect as a team and feel they can truly learn from each other, you then have something special.

TGR: Your vice president of exploration and mine development, Larry Martin, has quite a bit of experience in Nevada. Does that help knowing the players?

CDG: Yes, it helps tremendously. There are many competent geologists, but there are few that have a history of repeated, substantial discovery. Larry has had more than a handful of projects that are meaningful discoveries, often in the areas where people doubted the existence of the metal. He has a very structural approach to the geology; he likes to understand the structure of the model before drilling. As a result, he’s had a tremendous hit rate and a tremendous expansion rate.

In Nevada, Larry knows the people across the industry, from exploration to production and, especially, on the supply side. He has strong personal interdependencies with the metallurgical laboratories, the most reputable drilling firms and has long established working relationships with the best engineering and assaying firms. This helps create a highly reliable extension of our enterprise, our system, if you will.

TGR: One of the top-listed members of your company’s management team is your director of safety, Randy Harris. Is that on purpose?

CDG: It’s definitely on purpose. Safety and environment are the strongest covenants that we establish within our system and, of course, the territory. If we didn’t approach every step we take, each transaction we make in a safe and environmentally conscious way, our business would not be sustainable.

Sustainability starts with the environment and safety and then, everything else follows from there. The most expensive operation is an unsafe one. Comstock Mining has no tolerance for harming the environment or endangering any of the people involved in our activities. Randy is a proud Nevadan and an industry leader in this regard, and, coincidentally, was raised in Silver City, on the Comstock!

TGR: You recently raised $8.7M in a public offering. How will you use these funds to move the company forward?

CDG: The primary target was to finish the expansion of the heap-leach pad, which cost about $3M, plus the working capital associated with that ramp-up. We also targeted some funds for expansion of our land position. We believe we have consolidated substantially all of the mineralized properties south of Virginia City on the Comstock Lode, but there are other extensions of land that will allow us to expand our production and processing capabilities. The capital was raised to enable and sustain growth. Since we raised that money, we’ve been tackling that project head-on.

TGR: Were most of the investors involved in the capital raise new or existing investors? Were they retail or institutional?

CDG: They were primarily institutional and existing investors, though we did benefit from some new institutional investor and high-net-worth investor interest as well. We’ve worked very hard over the last three or four years to build an exceptionally solid foundation of capital, which is reflected by some of our more well-known investors, including, for example, U.S. Global Investors and Sun Valley Master Gold. These investors are keen on Comstock Mining because of the existing, validated asset value and the great growth potential, both in cash flow and resources, that we can create over the intermediate and longer term.

TGR: When will you have to raise capital again?

CDG: We don’t have any plans to raise capital. This expansion drops our unit cost, grows our revenue and takes us into generating positive cash flow. Right now, we’re focused on generating that cash flow and growing production at a sustainable pace.

TGR: Your stock is trading around $1.86. It’s fluctuated between $2.80 on the high and $1.50 on the low. What are the catalysts that will take it to the next high?

CDG: Positive cash flow is certainly the single most immediate catalyst and that good news is right in front of us. Beyond that, our largest upside is our vast exploration potential. We will put our positive cash flow to work in expanding and developing an even bigger gold and silver resource and that would be the next, most exciting major catalyst. Today we have over 2.5 million ounces (2.5 Moz) of gold and almost 27 Moz of silver. Our resource averages about 10 ounces of silver for every ounce of validated gold.

We feel we are just getting started in a vast mineralized district, but I think those two things are probably the largest catalysts. The third will be really demonstrating our new districtwide plan and giving people a clear view of the premise that takes us not to 20 Koz a year, not to 40 Koz a year, not even to 60 or 80 Koz a year, but up to 150 Koz through production from two mines on the Comstock.

TGR: Thank you for your time.

Corrado De Gasperis has 25 years of manufacturing, metals and mining operational and financial management, project management and capital markets experience. He is currently the president, CEO and a director of Comstock Mining Inc., a gold and silver producing mining company that is protecting, preserving, enhancing and now producing on the historic Comstock Lode District in Nevada. Previously, he was CEO of Barzel Industries Inc. and before that CFO of GrafTech International Ltd., a global manufacturer of industrial graphite and carbon-based materials. He holds a BBA from the Ancell School of Business at Western Connecticut State University, with honors.

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DISCLOSURE:

1) JT Long conducted this interview for The Gold Report and provides services to The Gold Report as an employee. She or her family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.

2) Comstock Mining paid The Gold Report to conduct, produce and distribute the interview.

3) Comstock Mining had final approval of the content and is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Opinions expressed are the opinions of Comstock Mining and not Streetwise Reports or The Gold Report or its officers.

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EUR/USD Could be Impacted by Currency War

By HY Markets Forex Blog

The euro/U.S. dollar pair could easily be impacted in the event that the fears some have expressed about a currency war being started indeed come true.

Individuals who want to make money trading the pair might benefit from knowing about such developments.

Expert: Currency war has been started

James Rickards, an advisor to the White House and the Pentagon, stated that the recent decision made by the European Central Bank to lower its key rate means that we are currently in a situation where different nations will strive to devalue their currencies in an effort to prompt global market participants to buy more of their exports, according to CBC News.

Central banks across the world have been engaging in robust purchases of debt-based financial instruments in an effort to stimulate their economies. For example, the Federal Reserve has been purchasing $85 billion worth of assets every month since late 2012. As a result, it has pushed its balance sheet to more than $3 trillion.

Amid the robust purchases, the central banks of many different nations have been making an effort to devalue their currencies, the media outlet reported. The key financial institutions of Japan, New Zealand, Australia and the Czech Republic have all been taking part in such activities. Rickards expressed his concerns with these efforts when speaking with CBC.

“We’re not always in a currency war, but when they start they can go on for a very long period of time,” he told the media outlet. “They can go on for five or 10 or 15 years. They’re not over quickly. The reason they’re not over quickly is that there is no natural resolution.”

 

Central banks devalue currencies

The same day that the ECB cut its key interest rate, action was also taken in the Czech Republic to weaken the koruna, according to The Globe and Mail. The value of this currency plunged more than 4 percent on that day. In addition to the efforts of these particular nations to encourage exports, China has been taking action to keep the value of the  low. In addition, both Australia and New Zealand have cautioned that their currencies should be lower compared to others.

Axel Merk, who heads up Merk Investments LLC, in Palo Alto, Calif., noted the importance of different nations making an effort to keep their currencies low in value, Bloomberg reported.

“It’s a very real concern of these countries to keep their currencies weak,” Merk told the news source during a telephone interview on Nov. 8. He stated that Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, “persistently since earlier this year, has been trying to talk down the euro.”

Stopping a currency war can be tough

It can be difficult for nations to extricate themselves from such a situation since causing appreciation in a currency can result in severe economic headwinds, according to the news source. The strength that the euro had before the financial crisis happened made the downturn worse than it could have been.

Global investors who want to make money trading currencies and currency pairs such as the EUR/USD can benefit from knowing about how they can be impacted by the asset purchases of central banks. These individuals might also obtain value by being aware of the economic conditions that would motivate one of these financial institutions to engage in such action.

Investors who want to make money by trading currencies can potentially harness knowledge of the affects that this stimulus has had – along with why such policy initiatives would be triggered – to get a sense of where foreign exchange rates could move in response to the use of these asset purchases.

The post EUR/USD Could be Impacted by Currency War appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

One Tweet and a Carl Icahn Protégé Away From An 84.6% Profit

By WallStreetDaily.com

What do you get when you cross a flurry of like-minded tweets with the offspring of one of the world’s most successful activist investors?

(No, this isn’t some terrible Wall Street joke.)

You get the perfect storm for a stock to nearly double in short order.

And now that I’ve officially got your attention, let’s get to the opportunity…

Tweets Matter

While I don’t believe Twitter’s (TWTR) stock holds any investment merit, I certainly don’t feel the same way about the information that traverses its network.

Time and time again, everyday investors telegraph their buying and selling activity by tweeting their opinions on publicly traded stocks beforehand.

For those “listening in” to the chatter, the tweets provide valuable sentiment information that can be used to determine entry and exit points in particular stocks.

I’m not the only one who thinks so, either.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, there are “a host of financial firms that see untapped trading potential in [Twitter].” They’re cashing in on it, too, by weeding out the senseless chatter to find the meaningful market information. They then sell the data to traders, who use it as actionable intelligence.

The reason I’m bringing this up is simple: On October 31, one of these “social listening firms,” Trade Ideas LLC, noticed an unusual uptick in mentions of Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (FNF). The stock received 12 times the average mentions in a single day.

The title insurance company should ring a bell with you. Why? Because on February 28, I singled out Fidelity National as one of five overlooked and undervalued ways to capitalize on the ongoing recovery in the residential real estate market.

The stock has performed as predicted – up 8.62% since that time. Compare that to the wildly popular iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB), which is down 2.93% over the same period.

While the outperformance isn’t much to brag about, new information suggests that Fidelity National could be on the cusp of leaving ITB in the dust and rallying 84.6%.

An Icahn-Trained Activist Investor Will Lead the Charge

After doing some digging, it turns out that the uptick in social media buzz involving Fidelity National coincides with a 13-D filing by Corvex Capital, run by Keith Meister.

For those unaware, a 13-D filing is required when an investor acquires a 5% or larger stake in a particular company.

The “D” designation means that the investor plans to play an active role in bringing about change at the company – like demanding a board seat or pressuring management to put the company up for sale. Hence the “activist investor” label often attached to such filings.

The most widely known activist investor is, of course, Carl Icahn.

Well, guess what? Meister served as Icahn’s right-hand man, until he left to found Corvex in 2011.

You think he learned a thing or two from his former boss? I believe that would be a safe assumption. But we don’t have to guess. All we have to do is look at his track record…

  • In October 2012, Corvex initiated a large position in ADT Corporation (ADT), a spinoff from Tyco International Ltd. (TYC). He prepared a lengthy presentation outlining how management could unlock shareholder value. Within six months, the stock was up 40%.
  • In February 2013, Meister took a big stake in CommonWealth REIT (CWH). Once again, he showed management how to unlock value. And sure enough, the stock is up 45% since his arrival.

If that’s not impressive enough, consider that billionaire George Soros provided the $250 million in seed capital Meister needed to launch Corvex. I can’t think of a more compelling vote of confidence, can you?

So, what’s Meister up to at Fidelity National?

He believes the company needs to jettison its non-core businesses (O’Charley’s Restaurant, Remy International and Ceridian Payroll Services) and focus on its real estate businesses instead.

In terms of value, he believes the non-core assets could fetch $5 per share.

Meanwhile, according to a report by Barron’s, he believes the core businesses could be worth upwards of $50. That is, once the pending acquisition of Lender Processing Services (LPS) is complete and housing activity returns to more normalized levels.

Based on the stock’s current price, we’re talking about an upside of more than 80%.

Bottom line: Icahn’s pupil has already demonstrated his ability to sniff out undervalued opportunities, particularly in the real estate sector. The latest social media buzz indicates that more and more investors are catching on, too.

Forget just blindly following their leads, though. The fundamentals warrant it.

The stock trades at an attractive valuation of 13 times earnings. The core business is ramping up, with sales increasing 6% over the last year, to $1.5 billion.

Plus, management just hiked the quarterly dividend by 12.5%, to $0.18 per share. That means we’ll get paid a modest 2.7% yield while we wait for Meister to shake things up.

So if you didn’t take my advice the first time around to enter a position in Fidelity National, I don’t recommend you wait much longer.

Ahead of the tape,

Louis Basenese

The post One Tweet and a Carl Icahn Protégé Away From An 84.6% Profit appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: One Tweet and a Carl Icahn Protégé Away From An 84.6% Profit

AUDUSD stays below a downward trend line

AUDUSD stays below a downward trend line on 4-hour chart, and remains in downtrend from 0.9756, the rise from 0.9269 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend. As long as the trend line resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to resume, and one more fall towards 0.9000 is still possible. On the upside, a clear break above the trend line resistance will indicate that the downtrend from 0.9756 had completed at 0.9269 already, the the following upward movement could bring price to 1.0000 area.

audusd

Provided by ForexCycle.com

Harley-Davidson’s Downfall: Baby Boomer Demographics

By The Sizemore Letter

Harley-Davidson (HOG) is a true American icon.  Its motorcycles are so distinctive that the company actually tried to trademark the “Harley sound,” that familiar rumble of the bikes’ exhaust, back in the mid-1990s.

It’s also a well-managed company and one of those true rarities: a successful turnaround story. This is a company that was facing bankruptcy in the early 1980s yet managed to rebuild itself into the pride of American manufacturing … and the subject of countless case studies in MBA programs worldwide.

Harley’s management was able to pull off that coup by leveraging that intangible quality that is so hard to imitate: brand cachet. For a particular breed of leather-wearing motorcycle enthusiast, there is simply nothing on par with a Harley.

But all of that said, I wouldn’t touch the stock … at least not at today’s prices.

At first glance, Harley would appear only modestly overpriced. It trades for 20 times trailing earnings and 2.5 times sales. This compares to 19 times earnings and 1.6 times sales for the S&P 500.

Figure 1: Harley-Davidson Revenues

A modest premium is appropriate for an iconic company with Harley’s branding power (and not to mention its high return on equity of 26.1%), right?

Well, maybe. But Daimler (DDAIF) — a company that knows a thing or two about vehicle branding — trades for just 10 times trailing earnings and 0.60 times sales. Yes, I realize it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison and that Harley runs a higher-margin operation in a business with fewer direct competitors. All else equal, Harley should trade at a slight premium to a larger automaker like Daimler. [Daimler, incidentally, is currently the leader in InvestorPlace’s Best Stocks of 2013 contest with year-to-date returns of over 50%.]

But all else is not equal. Harley has a serious growth problem, and it’s not one that will go away with a recovering economy.

Harley’s revenues are still below their pre-crisis highs (see Figure 1), and unit sales paint an even bleaker picture. Harley sold 349,196 bikes in 2006, and sales dropped to just 247,625 in 2012. That’s a unit decrease of nearly 30%.

To be fair, revenues and unit sales have enjoyed a nice bounce since the pits of the financial crisis. But Harley will never get its old mojo back for one critical reason that is completely outside of its control: demographics.

Down the road from my house in Dallas, there is greasy drive-in burger joint called Keller’s … a place I’ve been known to frequent a little more often than my doctor might recommend. On any given weekend, you might see a dozen or more bikers parked in the lot, showing off their chrome-laden Harleys. And nearly all of them are over the age of 45. Most are over 50.

This isn’t a coincidence. Harley-Davidson is a brand whose sales depend disproportionately — almost exclusively, in fact — on middle-aged Caucasian males. Riders younger than 40 generally lack the time, interest or the bankroll to buy a Harley. But by the time they get into their 60s or older, the noise and joint pain have begun to make riding lose its allure. You might still ride in your 60s, but you’re doing it less frequently and you probably aren’t buying a new bike.

American Men Aged 45-49

Figure 2: American Men Aged 45-49 by Year

The sweet spot is the mid-40s to early 50s. And with the Baby Boomers — the largest and wealthiest generation in history — now largely aged out of this key demographic bracket, Harley has a serious problem. Generation X — my generation — is not nearly large enough to pick up the slack, and Generation Y (aka “the Millennials” or “Echo Boomers”) are decades away from being in the demographic sweet spot for Harley, and this assumes they take to riding like their dads did. The number of American men aged 40-49 is set to decline through the early 2020s and won’t reach its old 2010 peak until 2035 (see Figure 2).

CNN Money reported on this as far back as 2010, and demographic strategist Harry Dent — my old boss — has used Harley as a case study for decades.

Harley-Davidson’s management is not stupid. They understand the issues they face, and they have gone so far as to address it with a dedicated page on their Investor Relations site: Harley-Davidson Demographics.

Stop and think about that for a minute.  Have you ever seen a company dedicate prime website real estate to the demographics of their customer base before?  I haven’t.  But then, few companies face the severe demographic issues that Harley does.

The company has aggressively expanded its marketing efforts to attract younger men, non-Caucasian men, and women, to modest success. Per the demographic site, management writes:

“In 2012, U.S. sales of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles to our ‘outreach’ customers — young adults 18-34, women, African-Americans and Hispanics – grew overall at more than twice the rate as sales to our traditional U.S. customer base of Caucasian men, ages 35-plus.”

But realistically, there is no replacing white Baby Boomer men. And this means a very rough decade ahead for Harley-Davidson.

Stocks in gently declining industries are not necessarily bad investments, as tobacco stock investors have no doubt noticed.

Under the right set of circumstances — strong financial health, large barriers to entry, good dividend growth and share buybacks — stocks in no-growth industries can make better investments than those in high-growth industries.

But for this to be the case, the stock has to be priced appropriately. Big Tobacco has had a great decade-long run because it started out cheap and paid a monster dividend. Harley-Davidson, in contrast, trades at a slight premium to the market and yields only 1.3%.

Harley-Davidson might be a good buy … eventually. But given the demographic headwinds it faces, it’s not cheap enough for serious consideration at this time.  An intrepid investor might even consider it as a short.

As of this writing, Sizemore Capital was long DDAIF.

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South Korea holds rate, inflation seen remaining low

By CentralBankNews.info
    South Korea’s central bank left its base rate steady at 2.50 percent, as widely expected, and said its monetary policy would be aimed at keeping inflation within the bank’s range and ensuring that the potential for growth is not eroded due to continued slow growth.
    The Bank of Korea (BOK), which last cut its rate by 25 basis points in May, said it expected inflation to remain low, mainly due to the inflation-reducing effects of free childcare and downward stabilization of international agriculture prices.
    Korea’s headline inflation rate fell further to 0.7 percent in October from 0.8 percent the previous month due to lower prices for agricultural products and petroleum while core inflation, which excludes those components, was steady at 1.6 percent.
    The BOK targets annual inflation of 2.5-3.5 percent and last month cut its inflation forecast to an average 1.2 percent this year and 2014 inflation to 2.5 percent.
    Domestic demand in South Korea slumped temporarily but the BOK said exports “sustained their buoyancy” so the overall economy continued to grow in line with the trend.
     Korea’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 1.1. percent in the third quarter from the second for annual growth 3.3 percent, up from 2.3 percent in the second and 1.5 percent in the first.
    “The Committee expects that the domestic economy will maintain a negative output gap for the a considerable time going forward, although it forecasts that the gap will narrow,” the BOK said.
    The BOK’s latest forecast call for 2.8 percent growth this year and 3.8 percent in 2014.
    The global economy is expected to “sustain its modest recovery going forward,” the BOK said, but added that changes in global financial markets due to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tapering of asset purchases and “continued uncertainties surrounding the US government’s budget bill and the increase in the debt ceiling pose downside risks to growth.”
    Earlier this month the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the South Korea should not withdraw its policy support to the economy too soon given the uncertain momentum of domestic demand and the country was on track to grow by 2.8 percent this year and 3.7 percent in 2014

   www.CentralBankNews.info