Month: November 2013

Guest Post by Chris James

By John Whitefoot for Daily Gains Letter

Not all investing opportunities are created equal…

Thanks to Antiques Roadshow and American Pickers, everyone thinks investing in collectibles is a great idea. However, the truth is that few actually have anything worth more than the day they were first purchased.

That doesn’t prevent people from trying to guess what the next great cultural commodity is going to be. I remember (briefly) watching a home shopping channel years ago and listening to someone explain why “Beanie Babies” were the next big thing for those interested in investing in collectibles. He couldn’t guarantee they were a slam-dunk investment, but the prices on the secondary market had soared. Take that into consideration as you call in your order.

Interestingly, there is no Beanie Baby segment on any home shopping channel.

Unlike stocks, there is no discernable way to say why, when, or if a collectible will ever increase in price; they also don’t provide a dividend. Investing in collectibles is as difficult as trying to time the stock market—it’s virtually impossible.

Collectibles can also be difficult to value, as it’s a subjective art. For example, on eBay (NASDAQ/EBAY), you can purchase a rare Princess Diana Beanie Baby bear for either $400,000 or get one from the same edition in similar condition for just $5,000. That’s quite a discrepancy for a really small target audience.

Here’s a hint: when it comes to investing in collectibles, look for the lowest-selling collectible you want, as that’s the bottom basement price no one is willing to pay. I’m not picking on Beanie Babies, I’m just using them as an example.

Investing in collectibles isn’t exactly a slam-dunk investment when it comes to your retirement portfolio, at least not for the average investor; though when you consider the record prices modern art is commanding this art auction season in New York City, it’s easy to see why many investors, tired of record-low interest rates and near-zero returns on their income investments, are looking elsewhere.

On November 12, an art collector shelled out over $142 million at Christie’s (a private company) postwar and contemporary art auction for a painting—actually a triptych—by Francis Bacon. A few minutes later, a collector purchased Jeff Koon’s sculpture “Balloon Dog (Orange)” for $58.4 million, an auction record for a living artist. The third-most expensive lot for the night went to a graphic of a Coca-Cola bottle by Andy Warhol, selling for $57.3 million.

If you’re considering investing in collectibles like art, wine, furniture, etc., but aren’t sure where to start, you could look at Sotheby’s (NYSE/BID), the only publicly traded auction house.

If investing in collectibles or paying $50.0 million for a Warhol isn’t in your budget, you could consider doing due diligence on some of the subjects he painted, including The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE/KO) or a motorcycle company like Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE/HOG).

The point is that you can find reasonable, affordable investing ideas anywhere.

When it comes to investing in collectibles, buy what you like, not what you think you can flip for a profit. After all, investing in collectibles can be a risky venture; not only do you need to find the next hot collectible trend, but you also have to get it at a reasonable price and find someone willing to pay more for it than you did.

The fact of the matter is it’s easier to perform a little due diligence and find a stock with better prospects. Investing in collectibles might sound like fun, but investing on Wall Street is a better bet.

http://www.dailygainsletter.com/investment-strategy/investing-in-these-collectibles-a-better-bet-than-wall-street/2140/

By Moe Zulfiqar for Daily Gains Letter

“The sky is falling, sell;” “It’s useless, run away;” “There’s going to be deflation, so it won’t serve any purpose to your portfolio”—these are a few of the ways gold bullion is being described these days. The yellow metal is facing scrutiny, and those looking for it are gasping for air.

Looking at all this negativity, should you lose trust in gold and sell, like the mainstream says?

The scrutiny against gold bullion is significant, but I remain bullish on the metal in the long run. As it stands, I don’t see demand declining, and as the prices remain suppressed, I expect the supply to decrease.

When gold bullion prices slid lower, we started to hear that the buyers would run for the exits, but we still don’t see that happening; as a matter of fact, more consumers are jumping in to buy the precious metal.

The nations that are known as the biggest consumers of gold bullion are still buying. According to the World Gold Council, in the third quarter of 2013, gold bullion jewelry demand in China was 164 tonnes, an increase of 29% from the same period in 2012. In India, the demand for gold bullion remains robust; for the first nine months of this year, the demand for gold bullion was higher than the previous year by 19%, despite the government and central bank working together to curb the demand. (Source: “Gold continues its journey from West to East as buoyant consumer markets balance investment outflows,” World Gold Council web site, November 14, 2013.)

“Consistent with the first two quarters of 2013, the global gold market remains resilient, underpinned by the continued shift in demand from West to East, strong demand in consumer categories and solid central bank and technology sectors,” said Marcus Grubb, managing director of investment at the World Gold Council. (Source: Ibid)

We continue to see robust demand for gold bullion in the U.S. economy as well. As of November 21, the U.S. Mint has sold 32,500 ounces of gold bullion in coins; year-to-date, this number sits at 785,000 ounces. In the first 11 months of 2012, the U.S. Mint sold 677,000 ounces of gold bullion; by that measure, the demand for the precious metal is running almost 16% higher than the last year. (Source: “Bullion Sales/Mintage Figures,” United States Mint web site, last accessed November 21, 2013.)

Seeing wild swings in gold prices is scaring a lot of those who liked the precious metal. I remain bullish because I see the basic principle of economics is still at play—high demand. I agree it is very difficult to remain bullish, but you have to keep in mind that the greatest opportunities come in times of greatest uncertainty.

In this environment where gold bullion is disliked, instead of aggressively buying, investors have to be very selective. If they are looking to add gold miners to their portfolio, they have to assess their financial health carefully and find if they will be able to survive the wild swings in gold prices in the short term.

http://www.dailygainsletter.com/precious-metals/losing-faith-in-gold-read-this-before-you-sell/2137/

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for November 25^th, 2013

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar is still moving downwards; bears are supported by Super Trends. If later price is able to stay below the 3/8 level, pair may continue falling down towards the 0/8 one.

At H1 chart, pair is moving towards the 0/8 level. Most likely, in the nearest future price may start new correction. If later pair rebounds from Super Trends, bears will continue pushing price downwards.

EUR/JPY

Pair is moving inside “overbought zone”. Last Friday, Take Profits on my buy orders worked. During local correction, I opened short-term buy order, because pair may yet continue growing up towards the +2/8 level.

Levels at H4 and H1 charts are completely the same. Stop on my buy order is placed below local minimum. If price breaks this level, as well as H4 Super Trend, market will star new correction.

SILVER

Silver is still moving inside “oversold zone”; price is supported by Super Trends. Probably, instrument may break the -2/8 level during the next several hours. In this case, lines at the chart will be redrawn.

At H1 chart, we can see that price is about to enter “oversold zone” quite soon. Possibly, instrument may break the 0/8 level during the day. Local target is at the -2/8 level.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By WallStreetDaily.com

Online retailing juggernaut, Amazon.com (AMZN), sure seems hell-bent on turning up the heat on the competition lately.

But is it now poised for one of the most indignant falls since Pope Gregory V (996–999) was poisoned?

On November 10, it partnered up with the U.S. Postal Service to begin offering delivery on the most sacred day of the week, Sunday. And now, Amazon is reportedly expanding into supermarkets’ turf by creating its own line of private label foods.

Will the bold moves be enough to keep propelling shares higher, though? Or will Amazon’s ambition lead to a monumental collapse?

That’s exactly what CNBC’s “Closing Bell” anchor, Maria Bartiromo, wanted to know last Wednesday when I appeared on the show.

In case you missed it, here’s the video of me squaring off against Tom Forte, Managing Director of the Telsey Advisory Group.

He’s bullish. I’m bearish. But only one man can win. Check it out and let us know who you think emerged victorious.

Ahead of the tape,

Louis Basenese

The post Is Amazon About to Be Gator Chomped? appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Is Amazon About to Be Gator Chomped?

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for November 25^th, 2013

GBP/USD

GBPUSD, Time Frame H4 – Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are still influenced by “Golden Cross” (1); Tenkan-Sen and Senkou Span A are directed upwards, other are horizontal. Ichimoku Cloud is going up (2), Chinkou Lagging Span is above the chart, and the price is on Tenkan-Sen. Short‑term forecast: we can expect support from Tenkan-Sen and price to grow up.

GBPUSD, Time Frame H1 – Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen intersected inside Kumo Cloud and formed “Golden Cross” (1); all lines are horizontal. Ichimoku Cloud is going up (2); Chinkou Lagging Span is near the chart, and the price is on Kijun-Sen. Short‑term forecast: we can expect support from Senkou Span A and growth of the price.

GOLD

XAUUSD, Time Frame H4 – Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen intersected below Kumo Cloud and formed “Dead Cross” (1); all lines are horizontal. Ichimoku Cloud is going down (2), Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart, and the price is below Tenkan-Sen.  Short‑term forecast: we can expect attempts to stay inside Tenkan-Sen – Kijun-Sen channel.

XAUUSD, Time Frame H1 – Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are influenced by “Dead Cross” (1); all lines are horizontal. Ichimoku Cloud is going down (2), Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart, and the price is below Tenkan-Sen. Short‑term forecast: we can expect decline of the price and attempts to reach the cloud.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

USDJPY’s upward movement from 96.94 extends to as high as 101.80. Support level is now at 100.95, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 102.50 – 103.00 area. On the downside, a breakdown below 100.95 support will indicate that consolidation of the uptrend from 96.94 is underway, then the pair will find support around 100.50.

Provided by ForexCycle.com

By CentralBankNews.info
    Last week Chile’s central bank cut its policy rate for the second month in a row while four other central banks maintained their rates as the timing of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tapering of asset purchases continues to dominate financial markets and the agenda of central banks.
    With memories of the May-August plunge in financial markets still raw, emerging market central banks are gearing up for the coming shift in U.S. monetary policy and an expected fresh bout of market volatility, currency depreciation and capital outflows.
    The global spillover of the Fed’s policy was on display last week as South Africa’s central bank ruled out rate cuts due to concern that its rand currency would be vulnerable to further deprecation and thus boost inflation when the Fed reduces its asset purchases.
    Nigeria’s central bank struck a similar note, saying it may need to raise rates next year in response to a likely rise in U.S. and European interest rates along with higher election-linked domestic spending.
    And in Ghana the central bank is stockpiling reserves so it can defend the currency in the event that capital heads for the exit.
    But the repercussions of the Fed’s policy is not limited to emerging markets.
    Australia’s central bank has for months voiced its unhappiness with the strong dollar and last week Guy Debelle, assistant governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, acknowledged that only a change in the Fed’s easy policy stance would help push down the dollar.
    “The sooner the day comes, the better,” Debelle said about a change in Fed policy.
    Glenn Stevens, RBA governor, echoed this view, acknowledging that the Aussie’s strength was partly a result of the very low interest rates in advanced economies, such as in the U.S.
    And in Taiwan, the country’s central bank governor warned of higher interest rates from the Fed’s tapering of asset purchases, likening the situation to “an aircraft carrier sailing full-steam ahead in a small pool,” according to press reports.
   
   Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in October released last Wednesday showed that debate over when to start tapering is in full swing.
    Financial markets zeroed in on the sentence that the FOMC could slow the purchases “at one of its next few meetings” if economic conditions warranted, triggering fears that the December meeting could result in a decision to trim the $85 billion monthly purchases of Treasuries and housing-backed debt.
    But based on public statements, Fed officials still seem far away from a consensus over when the economy is strong enough to handle a withdrawal of the extraordinary stimulus.
    And given that the Fed held off from tapering in September, partly due to concern over the possible consequences of the political impasse in Washington D.C., it would seem unlikely for the FOMC to ignore a similar risk next year given that the current funding of the federal government expires Jan. 15.
    “I fully expect that we’ll be talking about it (tapering) in December, January and March,” Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank told CNBC.

    Turkey, one of the emerging markets that have seen its assets fluctuate in sync with Fed policy expectations, took another of its byzantine monetary policy decisions this week.
    The initial statement by Turkish central bank’s monetary policy committee said key rates had been maintained, a decision that was largely expected given a recent strengthening of the Turkish lira and fall in inflation.
    But upon closer scrutiny and following the bank’s meeting with economists the day after, it has become clear that the central bank, without much public fanfare, has switched its key policy rate and de facto tightened its stance.
    The first clue to the change came from the bank’s statement on Tuesday, which no longer as usual contained a parenthesis with the words “policy rate” after “One-week repo rate at 4.5 percent.”
    Then on Wednesday, the bank acknowledged in its meeting with economists that the one-week repo rate should no longer be considered the reference rate and instead they should focus on the overnight interbank lending or repo rate that will be brought into line with the central bank’s overnight lending rate.
    The move acknowledges the growing importance of the overnight lending rate that was introduced as part of the bank’s new policy framework in October 2011. An interest rate corridor with a ceiling and bottom rate was created and the bank could adjust rates daily within that corridor in order to deter too much speculative capital. The corridor was considered successful in helping control hot money.
    While the Turkish central bank cut its one-week repo rate twice this year (April and May) in response to slowing growth, it has only used the overnight lending rate in recent months in response to the volatile market conditions since May.
    In July and August, for example, the central bank raised its overnight lending rate by a total of 125 basis points while maintaining the one-week repo rate.

    Through the first 47 weeks of this year, central banks have cut their policy rates 105 times, or 19.0 percent of the 552 policy decisions taken by the 90 central banks followed by Central Bank News.
    This is down from 23.27 percent and the end of the previous week and down from 25.3 percent after the first six months of the year.
    Roughly one-third (31.4 percent) of this year’s rate cuts have been carried out by emerging markets’ central banks while central banks in advanced economies account for less than one-tenth (8.6 percent) and banks in frontier markets account for one-fifth (19.0 percent).
    In addition to Chile, Turkey, South Africa and Nigeria, Japan’s central bank also met last week, continuing its aggressive monetary easing.
   
    LAST WEEK’S (WEEK 47) MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS:

   This week (week 48) eight central banks are scheduled to hold policy meetings, including Israel, Angola, Colombia, Hungary, Thailand, Brazil, Fiji and Trinidad and Tobago.

 
  www.CentralBankNews.info

By Chris Vermeulen – GoldAndOilGuy.com

Precious Metals ETF Trading: It’s been a week since my last gold & silver report which I took a lot of heat because of my bearish outlook. Friday’s closing price has this sector trading precariously close to a major sell off if it’s not already started.

On a percentage bases I feel precious metals mining stocks as whole will be selling at a sharp discount in another week or three. ETF funds like the GDX, GDXJ and SIL have the most downside potential. The amount of emails I received from followers of those who have been buying more precious metals and gold stocks as price continues to fall was mind blowing.

If precious metals continue to fall on Monday and Tuesday of this week selling volume should spike as protective stops will be getting run and the individuals who are underwater with a large percentage of their portfolio in the precious metals sector could start getting margin calls and cause another washout, spike low similar to what we saw in 2008.

ETF Trading Charts:

Below are updated with Friday’s closing prices showing technical breakdowns across the board..

Sweet & Sour ETF Trading Analysis:

Just to make things a little more interesting I would like to point out a couple other types of analysis.

Sweet:  Through analysis of the CEF Central Fund of Canada Ltd. chart and evaluation it is clear precious metals are falling out of favor at an increased rate. This fund owns physical gold and silver bullion and investors are fleeing the fund so fast that it is now trading at a 7% discount of its asset value. While this may not seem good for metals I see it as a positive.

When everyone is running for one door after an extended moves has already taken place it tends to act as a contrarian indicator. Knowing that some of the largest percent moves in a trend takes place before reversing, I see this information as an early warning that a bottom will soon be put in place.

Sour: While the USD index has not been much help compared to 2012, I feel as though a rising dollar is likely to unfold for a couple weeks which may lend a hand to pulling the precious metals sector down.

Precious Metals ETF Trading Conclusion:

While I am starting to get bullish for a long term investment in precious metals I know that a bottom has likely not yet been made. But even if it has been, it is better to buy during a basing pattern or breakout to the upside from a basing pattern than to be underwater with a position for an extended period of time along with all the other negatives that come along with it.

I do like the idea of CEF as a long term investment when I feel the time is right. I have invested and traded it many times in the past. The key to trading the fund is to be sure you are buying it at fair value or a discount from the net asset value. You do not want to be buying it when it is trading at a 5-7% premium. The fund owns both gold and silver making it a simple diversified precious metals play.

Get More Free ETF Trading Ideas & Analysis at: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

By MoneyMorning.com.au

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high on Friday at 16,064 points.

The S&P 500 also made a new high. It closed at 1,804.

And the NASDAQ index closed at its highest level since 2000 at 3,991 points.

The Aussie index, of course, is still a long way from its high. We don’t expect it to breach the high point for another 14 months. Even so, it has gained around 60% from the 2009 low.

That’s nothing to sniff at.

Yet, despite terrific stock gains, not everyone has benefited. Many people have become poorer and more will rely on government support. How is that possible with stock prices going higher? The answer is simple: fear, ignorance, and complacency.

Let’s explain what we mean…

As our old pal Nick Hubble pointed out in a recent report:

‘According to AMP the average Australian has $75,457 saved for retirement.

‘That’s not even enough to pay for two years of “comfortable” living after you stop working.‘

Worryingly, many of those nearing retirement in the next couple of years have even less in retirement savings. They’re looking forward to a life in retirement where they’ll have to survive on little more than the government’s Aged Pension.

So it’s hard to know whether they’ll feel relieved at the advice to the government from the Productivity Commission. It suggests lifting the pension age to 70.

News.com.au reports:

‘Australians would be forced to work until they turn 70, under a radical late-retirement plan from the government’s top policy agency.‘

Do you still think it’s too early to save for retirement?

The Worst Advice You Can Get from a Financial Planner

As you know, we believe that people (including you) should take more responsibility for their own retirement.

You should be an active investor. You should make decisions on how much to invest in an asset, which assets to buy and sell, and when to buy and sell them.

You can do everything yourself or you can get some advice. That could involve reading about the five ‘Retire Rich’ tips from our colleague Nick Hubble, or it could be kind of advice you get from a financial planner.

The choice is up to you. We will say one thing. The biggest beef we’ve got with financial planners is the notion that savers and soon-to-be-retirees should structure their finances so that they can qualify for the government’s Aged Pension.

Our view on that strategy? It’s a bunch of junk.

If any financial planner tried to tell us we should aim to get the Aged Pension we’d get up and walk out straight away.

The whole point of saving and investing is that you build enough independent wealth so you don’t need the Aged Pension. To our mind aiming for the Aged Pension would be like a stockbroker telling you they’ll only put you in losing stocks so you don’t have to pay tax on winning stocks.

That would be crazy.

Yet unfortunately, aiming for the Aged Pension is the kind of junk advice financial pros give unsuspecting investors every day. It’s a crying shame.

The Three Words That Could Kill Your Retirement

Instead, what financial advisors should do is spend more time trying to help their clients make money so they don’t need the government pension.

That’s where the three words we mentioned earlier come in to play: fear, ignorance, and complacency.

And it’s not just the mainstream financial advisors’ fault. Many investors just don’t get it either. That’s a financially lethal combination – a financial advisor who doesn’t get it, giving advice to a client who doesn’t get it.

So, what is it about these three words? First fear…

Most investors are just plain too scared to do anything. Many got into the market during the last bull market rally. At that time they probably followed their financial advisor’s advice to borrow money to buy shares.

That worked well until stocks crashed. So since then they’ve become too fearful to touch stocks again. Instead of realising it was their and their advisor’s stupidity behind their big losses, they both of course blame it on stocks.

That leads to ignorance. They made a mistake, but instead of admitting the mistake they keep pushing the blame elsewhere. Now they probably invest in negatively geared property, paying thousands per month in mortgage payments and thinking they’ve found the secret to lasting wealth.

Of course, they’ve found the opposite: the secret to pouring money down the drain. Not only that, but they also figure their house is their ‘retirement fund’. They’ll tell you that when they retire they’ll just sell their house and live off the proceeds.

They never explain where they’ll live or what happens after they’ve spent the proceeds from selling their home.

Don’t Get Trapped in This Investing Lobster Pot

Finally, there’s complacency. This is the biggest ‘retirement killer’ of all. It’s the idea that if they haven’t saved enough for retirement it doesn’t matter because, ‘Heck, I’ve paid my taxes, I’ll get the pension.’

What they don’t realise is that adjusted for inflation they’ll never get back even a fraction of what they’ve paid in taxes. They even think the Aged Pension is a ‘safety net’.

In reality it’s not so much of a safety net as a retirement lobster pot. It’s a trap. Once you’re on the Aged Pension, that’s it. It’s pretty much too late to do anything about building up savings.

That’s why complacency is such a killer. It lures people into believing everything will be fine. And that’s why we’re trying to tell you that you should do all you can to avoid the Aged Pension.

You shouldn’t care about getting back the tax you’ve paid during your working life. Retirement is your chance to finally break free of the government. You can structure your finances so you don’t have to pay any tax.

And if you don’t have to rely on a government handout it means you’ve finally achieved financial freedom. If you’ve also built up a big enough retirement pot you may have more personal freedom too…the ability to travel and perhaps live overseas for a while.

That’s the power of planning for your retirement and building up your savings now. We’ll say it again; your goal should be to do all you can to avoid the Aged Pension and any other government handout in retirement.

Make your goal personal and financial independence. We’ll guarantee you’ll have a much for fulfilling and happier life in retirement.

Cheers,
Kris+

Special Report: The ‘Wonder Weld’ That Could Triple Your Money

Join Money Morning on Google+

By MoneyMorning.com.au