Month: October 2013

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Mon 7 Oct 07:15 EST

PRECIOUS METAL prices were unchanged in what dealers called “thin, quiet” Asian and London trade Monday morning, despite increasing fears the US government will fail to meet its obligations in only 10 days’ time.

 “Congress is playing with fire,” Treasury secretary Jack Lew told CNN on Sunday. Because “if the United States government, for the first time in its history, chooses not to pay its bills on time, we will be in default.

 “There is no option that prevents [it] if we don’t have enough cash to pay our bills.”

 Analysts were left without two key reports Friday, as the US government shutdown delayed both the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls jobs report, and the weekly Commitment of Traders data from the futures and options market.

 Comparing the current moves in gold prices with previous US furloughs, analysts at both Barclays and Goldman Sachs agree this lackluster action “is not surprising” given how gold responded to the 17 previous occasions since 1976.

 Falling 1.4% in the week before this current shutdown began, the gold price had averaged a drop of 0.4% going into the 17 previous events, says Barclays.

 “Price reaction before, during and even after,” says Goldman, “has [always] been muted, even in shutdowns that have extended to three weeks’ duration.”

 But looking further ahead, “Credit markets could freeze, the value of the Dollar could plummet, US interest rates could skyrocket,” Lew’s Treasury Department warned on Friday, pointing to October 17th as the likely deadline for a new budget plan.

Gold held at $1313 per ounce Monday however, and silver was also unchanged, moving in a 35 cent range around $21.75 per ounce while other industrial commodities slipped even as the US Dollar fell.

 Global stock markets entered their third week of declines, but held only 2% beneath mid-September’s 5-year high on the MSCI World Index.

 “It is clear,” says a note from Citigroup analysts, “that investors are not very worried…and do not expect any debt ceiling rupture to last long.”

 “It is extremely unlikely,” reckons ratings agency Moody’s CEO Raymond McDaniel, speaking to CNBC, “that the Treasury is not going to continue to pay on those securities.

“[It] feels a lot like we’ve seen this movie before,” McDaniel said, pointing to the 2011 debt ceiling row which saw gold investing hit all-time record-high prices above $1900 per ounce.

 “Ironically, because we have had this experience in the recent past [it] gives people more of a sense of calm than perhaps they should have.”

 “The lackluster performance of gold returns,” says Deutsche Bank, “may reflect the relatively sanguine approach of financial markets amidst a US government shutdown and concerns over the budget ceiling.

 “Indeed of the several measures of risk we track, there has been little escalation in risk aversion. Unless this changes we would expect gold to remain under pressure.”

 Over in Asia today, Monday saw world No.1 gold consumer China celebrate another national holiday as its Golden Week drew to a close.

 Officials in former world No.1 India meantime released a tonne of gold bullion from Mumbai airport, where it had been trapped by confusion over new anti-import rules aimed at reducing the country’s large trade deficit.

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can fully allocated bullion already vaulted in your choice of London, New York, Singapore, Toronto or Zurich for just 0.5% commission.

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

EURUSD was trading higher for almost whole last week but then found resistance on Thursday and Friday when pair declined for almost 100 pips. This reversal in price should not be a surprise as the wave pattern shows a five wave rally from 1.3105 swing, so correction  has obviously been expected.  Corrections are three wave pattern that usually retraces back to the wave four termination point. In our case that comes in around 1.3475 so pair could fell further in days ahead or at least stay sideways.

EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

Written by www.ew-forecast.com | Try EW-Forecast.com’s Services Free For 7 Days at http://www.ew-forecast.com/service

AUDUSD: Risk Builds On The 0.9528 Level.

AUDUSD: While the pair holds above the 0.9305 level, further bullishness remains. However, AUDUSD will have to return above the 0.9528 level to trigger its broader recovery tone. This if taken out will open the door for a run at the 09650 level and then the 0.9700 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher. On the other hand, support lies at the 0.9305 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely. Further down, support lies at the 0.9200 level with break aiming at the 0.9100 level. A violation of here will aim at the 0.9000 level level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside long term.

By fxtechstrategy.com

By HY Markets Forex Blog

World Bank – China’s Growth Outlook

World Bank reduced its growth outlooks for China and the developing region of East Asia. The bank’s outlooks have been lowered for 2013 and 2014.

East Asian economies is expected to expand by 7.1% this year and 7.2% by 2014, according to World Bank. The bank’s previous outlooks were 7.8% and 7.6% respectively.

“Developing East Asia is expanding at a slower pace as China shifts from an export-oriented economy and focuses on domestic demand,” the bank reported.

China experienced a cut as well, with the country forecasted to grow by 7.5% this year, while by next year the economy is predicted to grow by 7.7%. The bank’s previous predictions were 8.3% for and 8.0% for 2014.

“Still, the economy has yet to make the decisive turn toward consumer-based growth,” according to World Bank.

The bank reported that China’s biggest problem is between the local government debt and its supervision.

World Bank warned that China should strengthen its municipal finances “with clear rules on borrowing, on allowed sources of borrowing, on debt resolution, and on the disclosure of comprehensive financial accounts by local governments.”

“The rapid expansion of shadow banking poses serious challenges, since shadow banking is closely linked to the banking system, is less regulated, and operates with implicit guarantees from banks and local governments,” according to the Bank.

On the bright side, the second-largest economy showed an improvement, with a boost in consumption and services sectors. As well as China’s investment stimulus program with credit expansion also showed an improvement as well.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to be release its new world economic outlook by Tuesday.

Visit www.hymarkets.com and find out more about our product offering and how you can start trading  with only $50.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

European stocks were seen opening the market in red on Monday as the markets continue to be affected by the US shutdown.

The European Euro Stoxx 50 edged 0.47% lower at 2,912.50 at the time of writing, while the French CAC 40 opened 0.57% lower to 4,140.50. At the same time Germany’s DAX declined 0.48% to 8,582.00 points, while the British FTSE dropped 0.27% to 6,436.30 points.

“Markets are set to become increasingly nervous over coming days suggesting an increase in risk aversion. Consequently pressure on risk assets is likely unless some sign of rapprochement is seen”, analysts from Credit Agricole BIB wrote in a note on Monday.

Earnings from some of the major airlines in Europe are expected to be released later in the day.

European Stocks  – US Shutdown

The US government shutdown continuous to its sixth day as neither Republicans nor Democrats has not made any changes to their decision. Meanwhile the Republican Speaker of the house John Boehner said he will not allow a vote on raising the US debit limit without discussing about what is the main contributor to the country’s debt.

Lawmakers in the US have ten extra days to finalize the nation’s debt-limit issue before October 17.

Asian Stocks

Asian stocks were affected by the US government shutdown, extended to its sixth day as the region’s stock ended lower and the Japanese yen dragged the country’s stocks lower.

In China, Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng dropped 0.56% to 23.008.00 at the time of writing, while the Japanese Nikkei 225 fell 1.22% lower at 13,853.32 points, regardless opening higher in its previous week’s 5% decline.

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The post European Stocks Starts In Red Amid US Shutdown appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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By WallStreetDaily.com

“Whoever said, ‘It’s not whether you win or lose that counts,’ probably lost.”

So says tennis legend, Martina Navratilova. And she’s right.

Whether we’re talking about sports or investing, one thing matters above all else: the ultimate outcome.

I bring this up because the last time we checked in with technology expert and Wall Street veteran, Jeb Terry of Aberdeen Investment Management, he told us to check out shares of NQ Mobile (NQ).

Since we spoke on May 22, the stock has rocketed more than 150% higher.

That’s enough to make it the best-performing internet-related stock this year, according to the number-crunchers at Bespoke Investment Group.

So what better time to check in with Jeb to get the story behind such outstanding growth? And in our exclusive interview, Jeb shares why he’s still “extremely bullish on the stock.”

In addition, he also reveals:

• One recent development involving Apple (AAPL) that could make the internet irrelevant sooner than you think.

• The key takeaway from eBay’s (EBAY) $800-million purchase of mobile payment startup, Braintree.

• Why Uni-Pixel (UNXL), the touchscreen innovator you’re already familiar with, is “splendidly positioned” to trade “multiples higher.”

• The identity of a mobile company on the brink of launching a disruptive productivity application.

Bold statements, no doubt.

But given Jeb’s track record, we can’t afford to ignore this. Just click on the image below to listen to my interview with Jeb. Or you can read the transcript here.

Ahead of the tape,

Louis Basenese

The post The Biggest Tech Development Since the Advent of the Internet appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: The Biggest Tech Development Since the Advent of the Internet

By The Sizemore Letter

I sat down with Doug Goldstein to discuss the merits of real investing on Goldstein on Gelt, broadcast from Jerusalem.  You can listen to the audio here.

In the first part of this week’s podcast, Doug meets Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, the founder and editor of The Sizemore Investment Letter, who talks about how the economy and inflation affect our investments. Also find out whether real estate can really be a good investment, and what the future holds for investing in America, Europe and the United Kingdom.

About the Author: Douglas Goldstein, CFP®, is the director of Profile Investment Services, Ltd, a financial planning firm located in Jerusalem. Doug’s newest book The Expatriates’ Guide to Handling Money and Taxes is available at www.expatguidetomoney.com. He hosts a weekly finance show, Goldstein on Gelt, on internet radio. Listen live or download podcasts. 

This article first appeared on Sizemore Insights as Podcast: Should You Invest in Real Estate for Income

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

While the closure of exchange-traded funds might seem like a negative subject, investors have the potential to learn quite a bit from funds of this type that go under.

ETFs have proliferated over the last several years and have drawn substantial business away from mutual funds due to their lower fees, strong returns and wide range of investment objectives.

Investors can learn from fund closures

Investors can potentially derive great benefit from harnessing ETFs, but they of course need to keep in mind that not all of these funds make for great investments. Individuals who want to make money by trading these financial instruments could potentially derive significant benefits from taking a look at the ETFs that have closed and the reasons these funds failed.

A total of 337 of these investment schemes have failed thus far, exchange-traded-fund analyst Eric Balchunas notes in a recent Bloomberg opinion piece. It is also important to keep in mind that more than 40 percent of these funds were shut down over the last 18 months.

As of September 9, 53 of these ETFs were shuttered in 2013, Index Universe reported. This compares to last year, when a total of 95 of these funds were closed. In addition, data provided by Index Universe’s ETF Analytics unit revealed that of the 1,500 of these funds that are listed in the United States, roughly one-fifth are at risk of being shut down.

Importance of assets under management

It is important to note that of these investment schemes that have a high chance of going under, most have less than $15 million in assets under management, according to the news source. The importance of a fund’s AUM was recently noted by ETF analyst Spencer Bogart in a recent Index Universe blog piece.

The author stated that while the assets held by a fund are not the only important matter when determining where to invest, ETFs that have more than $50 million in AUM will likely be making generous enough profits to not be in danger of closing. Likewise, if a fund has hundreds of millions worth of these assets, it would probably be rather unreasonable for such a venture to be shut down.

Funds could shutter for many reasons

While this measure of the assets that a fund has under management may be important, there are many other reasons that a fund could close down, Balchunas wrote. He stated that ETFs have stopped operating due to regulatory changes that might seem completely spontaneous.

In addition, he noted that some funds were simply launched at the wrong time. For example, Balchunas observed that Global X Fishing Industry, an ETF, was introduced shortly after a series of unfortunate events struck Japan, which is one of the countries where many of the fund’s holdings resided.

This fund only managed to round up $1 million in assets from interested investors, and within six months of its launch, the ETF plunged by 25 percent, according to Balchunas. The author also noted that because of the sharp gains that Japanese equities have experienced over the last year, this particular fund could have surged 31 percent during that period.

Benefits of these closures

Bogart noted that if an investor picks out an ETF and the fund then closes, it can be very inconvenient. That person might have just devoted significant time to the process of reviewing different investments in order to pick out the one that they thought would be best-suited to their specific objectives. Going through these steps once again could certainly be time-consuming.

He noted that if one fund closes, there is always a more viable alternative out there. Also, the monies that an investor puts into an ETF are not at risk if the fund indeed closes. As a result, people who want to make money by trading these financial instruments need not worry about losing their principal should one of these investment vehicles shut down.

Also, the primary benefit of some of these funds shutting down is the ones that do survive will be stronger, Balchunas wrote. Due to the significant monetary resources that have been flowing into these ETFs, and the robust competition for investor dollars, it is inevitable that some of the funds will cease to exist.

Due diligence is key

Investors who want to make money by trading ETFs need to keep in mind that performing the needed due diligence is crucial. There are a wide range of factors they can potentially consider if they are thinking about putting money into a certain fund.

Bogart noted that there are tax liability considerations for different funds. Obviously enough, people who are considering them must weigh their investment objectives and their past performance. In addition, the author noted that the strength of the financial institution offering the ETF should be considered. In the event that the firm goes under, it could close all of its funds.

Individuals should compile a list of key factors and then check potential investments against this list when conducting their due diligence.

The post Investors can learn more about ETFs from fund closures appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

Individuals who want to make money by investing in platinum might benefit from knowing that the precious metal could potentially experience substantial appreciation in the near future due to the market trends for this commodity.

Platinum is benefiting not only from favorable demand fundamentals, but also supply challenges that are being created amid a highly uncertain environment.

Strong demand for platinum

The demand for the precious metal is being fueled not only by purchases of jewelry, but also by rising production of automobiles, which increases the need for catalytic converters that contain platinum. In addition, some have noted that manufacturing firms have been using larger amounts of the metal as a raw material in their production of goods.

Various market experts have provided statements about demand for the precious metal, and individuals who want to make money investing in platinum might benefit from heeding these communications. One individual who seems fairly bullish about the commodity is Carlos Sanchez, director of commodities at New York’s CPM Group, according to International Business Times.

Sanchez told the media outlet that purchases of the precious metal have been rising across the world. He noted that emerging markets are one area in particular where this demand has enjoyed notable increases. The market expert said that manufacturers in the United States have been requiring more of the precious metal.

Strong state of auto industry

He also observed that in Europe, the automobile industry has been showing signs of improvement. Companies in this particular sector have need for the commodity since the catalytic converters used by vehicles help to reduce emissions, according to the news source.

This perception that the region’s auto sector has been growing is supported by data indicating that in August, the production of factories in the euro zone rose at the sharpest rate in more than two years, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The strong performance of this industry was also supported by data provided by analysts at Barclays, who stated that during this month, the top 16 auto makers experienced a 5.3 rise in production, according to International Business Times. The United Kingdom and Germany were singled out as having particularly strong activity.

Since Europe in particular has a substantial share of the market for diesel catalytic converters, the robust improvement in factory activity helped support positive sentiment surrounding the demand for platinum, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Robust demand for platinum jewelry

Another market trend that could serve to support the price of the commodity is demand for jewelry containing the precious metal. Barclays analysts recently stated that according to trade data provided by China, purchases of items containing platinum could have been bolstered by low prices, Platts reported.

Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst for Barclays, wrote in a report that the recent weakness in the price of platinum has been “triggering high volumes in September as demand remains price responsive thus supporting prices on the downside – a trend we expect to continue,” according to the news source.

In August, there was a 33 percent surge from the prior year in the amount of platinum traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the media outlet reported. The jewelry industry was the largest factor contributing to this trading activity.

In addition, such increases in the demand for these items have been observed across the world, according to Kitco News. CPM Group wrote earlier this year that in 2012, global purchases of jewelry surged 7.3 percent from 2011. Global market participants were drawn to the metal by lower prices.

Global supply concerns

While the price of platinum could easily receive support from the various factors that are helping to drive demand, platinum might also be pushed higher in value because of the concerns there are about the global supply of the precious metal.

Individuals who want to make money by investing in platinum might benefit from knowing about the highly-volatile nature of platinum production. South Africa in particular has been facing significant turmoil, and Sanchez has noted that mining in this particular nation has been facing various problems, International Business Times reported.

“South Africa has had ongoing issues – labor problems, rising high cash costs – and that has provided a floor to the platinum price,” Sanchez told the news source.

The production challenges that platinum mining firms face in this nation are certainly not new, as Howard Wen, precious-metals analyst with HSBC, recently told The Wall Street Journal that South Africa, which produces 73 percent of the world’s platinum, experienced declines in output in 2012.

“Last year platinum output was cut by 300,000 to 400,000 ounces, and the concern is that something similar would happen,” Wen told the news source. He said that in 2012, South Africa created 4.1 million ounces of the 5.64 million that were created worldwide.

The production situation in South Africa could potentially deteriorate, as there is substantial ambiguity surrounding what will happen as a result of the wage negotiations that are being held, Barclays analysts wrote recently, according to International Business Times.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

The downward movement that U.S. stocks experienced on October 2 indicated the concern that many global market participants have about the impact of the federal government shutdown that began on the first day of the month.

The depreciation in U.S. equities and its link to the shuttering of non-essential government offices could be helpful to anyone who wants to make money by investing in the stock market.

Investors push U.S. stocks lower

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.4 percent to close at 15,133.14 at 4 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg. The S&P 500 Index plunged by as much as 0.9 percent during the trading session, but managed to close only 0.1 percent lower.

This happened after the S&P enjoyed a 0.8 percent surge on October 1, as global market experts believed that the impact of the shutdown would not be significant, the media outlet reported.

“The market is trying to figure out how serious the situation in Washington is,” Paul Zemsky, ING Investment Management’s chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies, told the news source. “Today’s worry is that it is more serious than we originally thought, which is putting pressure on the market.”

Myriad economic concerns

The potential headwinds that this event could provide combines with concerns about other matters such as the tapering of quantitative easing and the lukewarm nature of the labor market.

Additionally, it’s important to note that these different factors could potentially work together and serve to drive the markets lower. Global asset markets received a boost last month when the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that it did not yet plan to reduce the pace of quantitative easing, but lowering the volume of these monthly debt purchases is considered inevitable by many.

Impact of government shutdown

Economists have already started to calculate how much they think the growth rate of gross domestic product will be reduced by the government shutdown, and these market experts recently provided a median forecast that if the event lasts for a week, GDP will be reduced by 0.1 percent, according to Bloomberg. The loss in output would become more severe if the government remained insolvent for a longer period of time.

“The impact on the broader economy does start to kick in as the shutdown extends beyond a week, two weeks,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Stamford, Connecticut-based Pierpont Securities LLC, told the news source. The estimates provided by his firm were in-line with the median forecast provided by the poll. “If it’s a couple of days or even a week it’s something that we’ll have forgotten about a month or two from now.”

There are concerns that the longer the government is shut down, the greater the fluctuations in global asset values will become, according to Reuters. Susanna Gibbons, a portfolio manager at Minneapolis-based RBC Global Asset Management, noted that many are becoming more pessimistic about how long the closure of certain government offices could last.

“Before the consensus was that any shutdown would be short-lived,” she told the news source. “But the positions have hardened over the last few days. Some increased volatility for the next couple of weeks would not be surprising.”

Delays in release of government data

There are also concerns that some key economic reports could be delayed as a result of the federal government being shut down, according to Investing.com. For example, the U.S. Department of Labor is scheduled to release a report later this week that contains the jobs figures for September.

The labor market – and its gradual improvement over the last several years – has been scrutinized by a wide range of global market participants, including those who want to make money by investing in the stock market.

The sentiment of investors has been further undermined by a recent report released by the private sector, which indicated that in September, U.S. payrolls only grew 166,000, which is lower than the figure of 180,000 that was predicted previously, Reuters reported.

Upcoming debt dilemma

Another concern that could also serve to provide headwinds to the economy and global asset markets is the showdown that is coming up related to the national debt ceiling.

This matter is more crucial than the current government shutdown, and there is significant anticipation surrounding how the discussions between lawmakers will unfold as they determine if – and by how much – the limit on the nation’s debt should be increased, according to the media outlet.

Failure to raise the ceiling could result in the nation defaulting on its existing debt obligations. Such an event could cause substantial depreciation in the value of stocks by bolstering risk aversion significantly.

Since an event of this nature could have such a significant effect, it would be wise for any individuals who want to make money trading stocks to stay abreast of these events.

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