Month: October 2013

By OilPrice.com

Gunmen today seized Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zeidan from a hotel in central Tripoli, releasing him shortly afterwards, but making it clear that post-Gaddafi Libya is a failed state and that the government is incapable of taking full control over its oilfields and export terminals.

While the markets have been responding lately with unfounded optimism over Libya, anyone who has been privy to the intelligence briefings and executive reports from Oil & Energy Insider would know that announcements of progress emanating from the capital Tripoli are hot air. There are too many roving militias who want their piece of Libya’s fossil fuels largesse—and the government is impotent.

Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the seizure of Prime Minister Ali Zeidan on 10 October from the Corinthia hotel in central Tripoli.

More to the point, the prime minister was apparently seized by militias linked to Libya’s Interior and Defense Ministries, which makes one ask whether he was kidnapped or arrested, or indeed whether it is even worth getting into the semantics.

His arrest was not about oil, specifically, it was in retaliation for the US special forces capture of a Libyan al-Qaeda suspect in Tripoli over the weekend. Militant groups—many of whom control various branches of the impotent government—were angered at the US capture of Abu Anas al-Libi, wanted for the 1998 bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in which more than 220 people were killed.

Look no further than Libya’s National Congress, which was adamant that the US return the captor, which it labeled as a kidnapping and a violation of Libya’s national sovereignty.

Upon his release, Prime Minister Zeidan took to the international media, calling on Western powers to step in—again. In an interview with BBC Newsnight, Zeidan said the country was being used as a base to export weapons across the Sahel and that “the movement of these weapons endangers neighboring countries too, so there must be international cooperation to stop it.”

Regardless, the situation should be clear even for those Libyan enthusiasts who are under the impression that this is a functioning state. Ali Zeidan’s days are numbered without another direct Western intervention.

This is the same reason the oil cannot flow as planned.

At we noted in a September executive report on Libya in Oil & Energy Insider, the crisis began two years ago with the overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi, but in August things took a definitive turn for the worse, with armed groups seizing major oil export terminals and demanding autonomy for the eastern region. Now the crisis has reached the west where other militant formations ominously charged with guarding the country’s pipelines and oil fields are seeking to profit on the momentum of the strikers and protesters in the east.

The interim government cannot manage this crisis. It’s already been forced to compromise, agreeing earlier in September to a 20% wage hike across the board for civil servants, and including oil security forces in this mix. At the same time, the government has issued warrants for the arrest of strike organizers in the east.

While the government will not be able to enforce these warrants, the blowback for this still will be severe and will result in a violent upheaval unlike anything else in the past two years. This will reverberate throughout the already volatile Sahel region, threatening security in Tunisia and Algeria most immediately. It is also leading to a tightening of world oil supplies.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Africa/Dont-Be-Fooled-by-LibyaThis-is-a-Failed-State.html

By. James Stafford of Oilprice.com

Article by Investazor.com

The atmosphere in the United States maintains the excitement of the worldwide markets as important issues are still in the decision making process.

Recently, the president Barak Obama announced the new chairwoman of the Federal Reserve Bank, the current vicepresidente Janet Yellen. As the mandate of the current chairman Ben Bernanke is finishing on 31^st of January 2014, Janet Yellen is expected to assume the responsabilities if this job. Since the beginning of 2013 economists predicted the entering in the scene of J. Yellen as she is considered the most appropriate person in this position. She is expected to maintain the current economic view of Ben Bernanke and sustain the monetary stimulus program.

The last FOMC minutes revealed the beginning of new discussions about tapering. The majority of the FOMC members are concerned about the long term consequences of the situmuls program especially in the given context of dissapointing economic data that characterized the economy recently. Fed officials want to see the tapering beginning later this year (the last meeting of this year of the FOMC members, which is due to take place in December, is likely to bring relevent information about this situation). The completition of the program is intended to be accomplished in the mid of 2014. Of course is difficult to relay in any of those assumption as long as the data coming from the real economy are not sustaining a stable recovery.

Economists forecast a $5 billion reduction in Treasury purchases while the buying of Mortgage-backed securities is expected to stay in place as the recovery of the housing sector needs further sustainment. Also, FOMC maintains its statement regarding the benchmark interest rate to be kept near zero as long as long as the unemployment exceeds 6.5% and the outcome for inflation doesn’t go above 2.5%.

In the near term, economists are expecting the final decision of the current debt ceiling debate as the government shutdown is approaching 2 weeks. The last news regarding this matter revealed that both Democratic leaders and House Republicans are open to a short term increase in the debt limit. On the other side, Democrats are insisting on imposing budget conditions while Republicans want to attach conditions to both in the form of spending cuts or entitlement changes.

The post U.S. Runs a Vital Decision Making Process appeared first on investazor.com.

So many financial markets; so little time to follow them. The one forecaster who will put it all in perspective is EWI’s Robert Prechter. Read his reports and you will get a clear idea of what really drives the markets and the U.S. economy – and why the Fed is beating its head against the wall.

Here’s a great example: A six-page report adapted from a recent issue of Bob’s monthly Elliott Wave Theorist. This report explains why the risk of deflation is mounting – which is the opposite of what the Fed wants – and how you can see it coming in the prices of gold, gas, real estate, crude oil and other markets. He also explains why the stock market recently rose to a new high. And this is done with the support of 16 charts – all of which tell a story on their own.

As usual, Bob Prechter’s analysis is a lightning-fast read that cuts through the noise, debate and doubt to offer a perspective that everyone can understand. And for a limited time, you can read it FREE.

Read it and see what you think. If nothing else, you will understand why the price of gas doesn’t always do what we think it will. In the big picture, you may even question whether inflation is inevitable and decide to prepare instead for deflation.

Download your free report from Robert Prechter now >>

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

As trading becomes increasingly popular in the world of financial markets, there is evolvement of products and offerings. When new-fangled financial markets develop too rapidly, at times it’s hard to maintain the reliability and sustainability of those products. Binary options are a classic example of such a market. Binary options have not been around for long. They come into existence in the year 2008 after approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

With the existence of novel markets, plenty of new brokers providing the trading product have emerged. Nonetheless, these binary options companies out there are unknown. For those who value their money, they ought to be cautious concerning the unknown. There can be confusion especially if one is a new trader in the financial markets.  For newcomers and professional traders, binary options trading can be pretty rewarding. However, among the many binary options companies available online, how do you determine who to trust with your funds? In addition to this confusion, there is numerous information and misinformation accessible on the web perhaps posted by traders who are disgruntled and competing brokers. Therefore, it’s kind of tricky when it comes to distinguishing a trustworthy broker from the numerous firms accessible in the internet.

The first thing to consider when opening a trading account in the Forex Market is looking for a trader who is regulated. A company’s place of registration together with its base of operation often determines how it’s regulated.  Although it’s a complex issue particularly in the global market, individuals ought not to ignore the significance of the broker in operation to be governed by a financial regulatory framework. In the US, binary options companies are self-regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) while in the UK the Financial Services Authority (FSA) is responsible for regulating brokers.

Another factor to consider when searching for a broker is to review the market capitalization of the target company. It is wise to always ensure that the shortlisted company is well capitalized so as to reduce the risk of losing your funds in the event that the company goes bankrupt. Usually if a company is regulated then it’s also well capitalized. For them to apply for regulation their accounts ought to have enormous amounts of money, say millions of dollars.  A while ago, firms operating with less than $100, 000 in the US resulted to them having issues with their clients after the market tanked. Nevertheless, current regulations in the US have already been tightened. Which means that for brokerage firms to operate; they require a capitalization of at least $ 20 million dollars. To see if a company is sufficiently capitalized, individuals can visit the CFTC website.  There you will find an up to-date list of capitalized members.

The other thing to consider is the trading platforms.  There are numerous types of trading platforms accessible in the market. Apparently a lot of binary options are usually web-based. Most of them are white labels belonging to other firm’s platforms.  Basically binary brokers provide various types of mediums on their platforms. Most companies offer the PUT/CALL or UP/DOWN classic option.

When selecting reliable binary options companies its prudent to take into consideration the payout offered. First ensure that the money invested will bring sufficient returns. More often, traders have to make a prediction on the price of the underlying asset at the time of expiry.  When a trader makes the right determination, he will be in a position to harvest a percentage return depending on the amount of funds invested. Nevertheless, this percentage differs among brokers. Traders should not only concentrate at reviewing the returns. They ought to also observe the payout rate when their trades are unsuccessful. Again the figure differs from one broker to another.

Lastly, the other thing that you can take into account when choosing commendable binary option companies is a trading environment that is secure. This entails your trading safety on the web not only for binary options but also other transactions. So as to be secure as possible, individuals should ensure that their trading platform is encoded with a SSL encryption key of 128 bits. There is possibility of hackers stealing your finances if your transactions are not encoded.

Related Article By Thebinaryoptionsbroker.com : Binary Options Vs. CFD Trading

By HY Markets Forex Blog

European stocks were seen in green during the early trading hours of Thursday, as investors focus on the upcoming meeting of the Bank of England rate decision scheduled for later in the day.

The European Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.16% higher at 2,938.50 at the time of writing, while the French CAC 40 gained 1.12% at 4,173.30. At the same time the UK FTSE 100 advanced and the German DAX 30 gained 0.84%, standing at 8,588.00.

In France, the country’s industrial production edged 0.2% higher in August, lower than the estimated reading of 0.6% made by analyst.

While the French manufacturing production jumped 0.3% in August, while analysts estimated an increase of 0.6%.

In Italy, the country’s industrial production report is expected to be released by 8:00am GMT.

European Stocks- Yellen Nominated As Fed Chairwoman

The US President Barack Obama has nominated Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairwoman. Investors are expecting Janet Yellen to start scaling back on the Fed’s $85 billion monthly stimulus program as soon as possible.

Meanwhile, the president of European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi explained why the integration of the euro zone’s banking system is very important to the economy. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to begin its banking process with the single supervisory mechanism which has been approved by the European Parliament.

“We trust that a single resolution mechanism will enter into force by the beginning of 2015,” Mario Draghi commented.

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The post European Stocks In Green Ahead of BoE Meeting appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Thurs 10 Oct 08:25 EST

WHOLESALE PRICES in Asia and London for physical gold slipped again Thursday morning, dipping back below $1300 per ounce as politicians in Washington mulled a short-term fix to avoid the $17 trillion debt ceiling triggering a government default in one week’s time.

 Silver also eased back, trading below $22 per ounce, as world stock markets rose and major government bonds slipped, nudging 10-year US Treasury yields up to 2.70%.

 “The inability [of gold prices] to retest recent highs of towards $1350 is a disappointment,” says technical analysis from Scotia Mocatta in New York.

 “The one-month trend line (now at 1324) should limit any tentative rebound with 1317 being an immediate resistance,” reckons a chart comment from Societe Generale’s technical team.

 Legal inflows of gold to India – the world’s former #1 consumer nation – have been so dented by the government’s anti-import rules that the country’s trade deficit shrank to a 30-month low in September, officials said yesterday.

 “This is working out as the government intended,” the Financial Express quotes commerce secretary S.R.Rao after India’s monthly trade deficit came in below $6.8 billion for the first time since April 2011.

 Many Indian households have turned to silver says the Economic Times, with silver imports already doubling 2012’s full-year total over the Jan-Aug. period at 4,073 tonnes according to Thomson Reuters GFMS.

 “The record high was 5,048 tonnes in 2008,” says the paper.

 Households in central China’s Hubei province have meantime grown their gold and silver jewelry demand 41% by value so far this year, the Xinhua agency reports.

 The region’s private demand totalled the equivalent of $1.3 billion despite the sharply lower prices compared with the first 8 months of 2012.

Here in London today, the Bank of England followed the US Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan in voting for no change to current policy, holding interest rates at record lows and maintaining its £375 billion ($600bn) quantitative easing gilt-buying scheme.

 The Pound bounced 0.4 cents after the news from a new 3-week low of $1.5910. That helped gold move above £815 per ounce.

The last time any member of the UK’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise interest rates was July 2011.

 Consumer price inflation in the UK has since averaged 3.2% per year, topping the Bank of England’s 2.0% target in all 27 months.

 “[US Fed] tapering has been postponed not canceled, and is expected by year end,” wrote Morgan Stanley analysts earlier this week, adding that Washington’s “political stalemate” over the debt ceiling will soon be resolved.

 “Consequently, we see little immediate upside to the gold price either in the immediate future or next year.”

 “We recommend staying away from gold,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Joel Crane overnight, repeating the investment bank’s 2014 average forecast of $1313 per ounce.

 Should the debt ceiling be hit without a resolution one week today, says investment bank and bullion market-maker HSBC in a note, “It is possible that investors move into Treasuries as a safe haven [instead of gold] despite the possibility of US default.”

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can fully allocated bullion already vaulted in your choice of London, New York, Singapore, Toronto or Zurich for just 0.5% commission.

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Asian stocks market were seen trading mixed, with Korean and Japanese indices advancing on the positive manufacturing report while in China, stocks were seen declining on financials. In Australia, the market closed lower due to the miners losing and the employment data.

Asian Stocks – Japan

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index closed 1.03% higher at 14,182.00 on Thursday, assisted by the weak yen and the upbeat manufacturing report, boosting the industry sector. Japan’s consumer confidence index advanced to 45.4 in September, compared to previous reading of 43.0 in August. The Topix benchmark rose 0.40% higher to 1,171.62.

Major manufacturer movers were Mitsubishi Heavy Industries advancing by 3.10%, Sharp rose 2.06%, Mazda Motor jumped 3.13% and Fujitsu gained 3.07%.

While Nitto Denko Corp lost 3% and metal company Mitsui Mining & Smelting dropped 2.64%.

Asian Stocks – Korea

In Korea, the benchmark KOSPI index dropped 0.12% lower to 2,002.28. Hyundai Motor rallied 2.56%, while Kia Motors Corp gained 1.56%.

Asian Stocks- China

In China, stocks were seen declining on financial, as the Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng index edged 0.82% lower to 22,845.00 at 3pm JST, dragged lower by financial companies, while the mainland Shanghai Composite lost 0.97% to 2,190.39.

HSBC Holdings declined 0.12% lower at the time of writing. Pudong Development Bank Co. Ltd dropped 3.02% and Haitong securities lost 4.11%.

Real Estate Company Tianjin Jinbin saw gains, rising 7% higher, while Tianjin Marine Shipping advanced by more than 4%, both boosted by the upbeat news that the city port could become a free-trade zone.

Australia

The Australian benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed Thursday trading session 0.11% lower at 5,147.10, dragged  by the mixed unemployment data, which showing uncertainty as  to if the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut their rates further.

Miners were seen declining, with BHP Billiton easing 0.95%, Atlas Iron Ltd. dropping 2.82% and Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd. lost 3.17%.

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The post Asian Stocks Mixed; Japan Climbs On Upbeat Data appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By Elliott Wave Analysis Service

US Bonds were trading lower in the last two sessions after the minutes of the Federal Reserve showed that most policymakers still favor a tapering program this year. But sell-off on bonds came on news that QE could end in mid-2014. USD was firstly down on the news, but then it recovered during the Asian trading hour. However, EURUSD is again finding some bid, so no real direction at the moment. Meanwhile the S&P Futures are rallying.

I am looking at the 10-year US notes where I suspect that prices are moving lower into wave B that is part of a larger three wave rally on a  daily chart. Wave B could reach levels around 124-124.50 so there is room for more weakness. If weakness will resume, then US yields will rally which will support the USDJPY.

10 –year US notes daily

On USDJPY I can see some reversal to the upside but still need to wait more, especially if we also consider that on 4h chart price is now testing upper trend line of a downward channel. We definitely want to see a breakout here to confirm bullish waves.

USDJPY 4h

Written by www.ew-forecast.com

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By www.CentralBankNews.info     The Bank of England (BOE) maintained its target for asset purchases at 375 billion pounds and the bank rate at 0.5 percent, saying in a brief statement that this decision was reached in the context of the forward guidance announced in August.
    In August the BOE pledged to maintain the bank rate and not reduce the target for asset purchases at least until the U.K. unemployment rate declines to 7.0 percent.
    The decision was widely expected as the U.K. unemployment rate only fell to 7.7 percent in July from 7.8 percent in the previous four months amidst growing evidence that the U.K. economy is starting to strengthen.
    The BOE has held the target for asset purchases – also known as quantitative easing – steady since July 2012 with members of its Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voting to maintain that amount since July when the new governor, Mark Carney, took over. The bank rate has been maintained at 0.5 percent since March 2009.
    In July the BOE also countered the rise in UK bond yields following expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would start to reduce its asset purchases, saying the implied rise in the future path of its bank rate was not warranted by economic developments.
    The U.K. economy expanded by an annual 1.3 percent in the second quarter, up from 0.2 percent in the first quarter while inflation eased to 2.7 percent in August from 2.8 percent in July, still above the BOE’s 2.0 percent target.
    In its latest forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised upwards its forecast for the UK economy, projecting Gross Domestic Product growth this year of 1.4 percent, up from its April forecast of 0.7 percent, and 1.9 percent growth in 2014, up from 1.5 percent.

    www.CentralBankNews.info
   

By Profit Confidential

When we first took a look at Chart Industries, Inc. (GTLS) in April, the stock was trading around $80.00 a share. The natural gas build-out is a very worthy investment theme going forward and equity market portfolios should have some exposure.

The oil and natural gas industry is a bright spot in today’s economy, and there is genuine economic growth being generated from this sector. With North America gushing with natural gas, the infrastructure necessary to process, transport, and store it is vast and represents a good investment opportunity.

Chart Industries is a company that manufactures specialized storage solutions for liquefied natural gas (LNG), petrochemical and natural gas processing, medical use gases, and related storage equipment. It’s a solid company with a good track record of managing its business.

Now that there is a push to move the glut of natural gas, there is growing demand for LNG processing plants. Chart Industries was recently awarded a contract to build a C100N liquefaction plant for Stabilis FHR Oilfield LNG LLC. The customer plans to use the processing plant to produce 100,000 gallons of LNG per day in the Eagle Ford Shale region in Texas.

Chart Industries said that Stabilis will likely order four additional LNG liquefaction plants, which can produce either 100,000 gallons or 250,000 gallons per day. Chart Industries has already reserved manufacturing time slots for these additional processing plants.

Back in July, the company won an additional order from Kunlun Energy Investment, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of PetroChina Company Limited’s (PTR) Kunlun Energy Limited for self-contained LNG station modules. The latest order was over $50.0 million, and that is on top of a $45.0 million order from the same customer in April. This is the third order over the last few quarters from PetroChina; the most recent was not included in the company’s 2013 second-quarter order backlog.

Chart Industries is a mature manufacturing company (it also makes cryogenic systems that can freeze down to absolute zero or -459 degrees Fahrenheit), and its order backlog is a very important financial metric. (See “Consumers Vulnerable as Oil Earnings Flourish.”)

The company has made some acquisitions lately, which have boosted revenues, but it’s very apparent in the company’s financial documents that revenues related to natural gas and LNG applications are growing. Orders related to distribution and storage products in the second quarter of 2013 were $222 million compared to $133 million in the first quarter of this year, which is a big deal.

Monetary policy is still the major arbiter for the stock market, but what a company reports about its operations can be used as a predictor. I think the oil and natural gas build-out is an investment theme with real staying power, possibly even for the rest of this decade. Equity investors could do well with some exposure to this market sector.

The production glut continues, which is why distribution and storage is such a strong theme for true business growth. I still view natural gas as a great multiyear buy low/sell high investment opportunity.

Article by profitconfidential.com