Fights in Congress a Distraction from a Bigger Issue in the U.S. Economy

By George Leong, B.Comm. For Profit Confidential

All of this fighting in Congress has taken the spotlight away from what is really important—the third-quarter earnings season.

It’s early on, but we are already seeing some hints that corporate America and the retail sector are not faring as well as we want them to, but this is no surprise, given that gross domestic product (GDP) growth is still muted.

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE/AA) managed to beat on revenues and earnings. The provider of aluminum also suggested that the global demand would be in the seven-percent range next year.

Kentucky Fried Chicken (or KFC) and Taco Bell owner YUM! Brands, Inc. (NYSE/YUM) was met with a rush to the exits after the company revealed it was short on both revenues and earnings in its latest quarter.

Yet what continues to worry me is the lackluster reporting from the retail sector that indicates a stalling in consumer spending; this is a red flag, considering consumer spending accounts for a large part of the country’s GDP. (See “How Red Flags in the Retail Sector Are Threatening U.S. GDP Growth.”)

Spending on credit cards fell for the third straight month in August—another bad sign, considering financing rates are at relatively low levels in an attempt to spur spending.

In the retail sector, revenues at 10 retailers increased 3.6% in August, based on info from the International Council of Shopping Centers, which is well down from the six-percent rise in August 2012. This is not a surprise, given the economic uncertainties out there and the stale jobs market.

A few weeks ago, bellwether Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE/WMT) reported softness in its global retail sector. Now Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ/COST) is reporting a lackluster fiscal fourth quarter in which revenue growth was a muted one percent year-over-year and earnings came in at $0.05 per share below the consensus estimate. Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (NYSE/FDO) also joined the pack, reporting flat same store sales in the retail sector.

The lack of stronger sales growth at the discounters is a real concern going forward and indicates the economy is not progressing as we would want, which will impact the retail sector.

Remarking on the company’s latest report, Howard R. Levine, chairman and CEO of Family Dollar Stores, said, “Given the uncertainty of the operating environment and the near-term challenges our customer continues to face, we have taken a cautious approach to fiscal 2014,” said Howard R. Levine, chairman and CEO of Family Dollar. (Source: “Family Dollar Reports Record Sales and Earnings Results,” Yahoo! Finance, October 9, 2013.) This is not exactly a vote of confidence for the retail sector as we get set for the key holiday shopping season.

So as we move forward into the fourth quarter, I suggest caution when looking at the retail sector, especially with the key holiday shopping season approaching and companies in the retail sector still acting cautiously.

 

 

Why This Mature, Reliable Company Is Still a Favorite of Mine

By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm. For Profit Confidential

In an environment that’s very difficult to generate real economic growth, this large corporation is predicting solid financial growth for the next several years.

NIKE, Inc. (NKE) continues to be an excellent wealth creator. It’s a mature, global, and very much ubiquitous brand; plus, the company keeps generating solid numbers to the delight of shareholders.

In a recent press release, NIKE announced that it expects to deliver $30.0 billion in revenues in fiscal 2015 and is targeting $36.0 billion in total sales by fiscal 2017.

The company’s long-term financial plan is intact. Management wants high single-digit annual revenue growth with earnings-per-share (EPS) growth in the mid-teens. That’s a solid expectation for any business, especially one worth over $65.0 billion.

NIKE’s most recent quarter was excellent with strong EPS growth, and the company boosted its cash position substantially. (See “Proven Wealth Creator Delivers Again; Earnings, Sales Growth Surge.”)

I continue to make the case that long-term investors can consider this company. Its current dividend yield is approximately 1.2%, but management should soon make an increase. The company can certainly afford it.

NIKE has been an exceptional performer on the stock market over the last few years. The position dropped to $20.00 a share during the March low of 2009. Now, it’s over $70.00 a share, which is an amazing performance for any mature company.

Like most brand-name corporations, the stock has experienced periods of nonperformance. This time last year, NIKE’s share took a prolonged break.

But with such a strong outlook from the company, investors are buying this stock at its high because there are very few businesses out there with these kinds of financial expectations.

Management expects the company’s growth to come from sales of apparel and women’s product lines. Sales in China are expected to return to previous levels, with North America and Western Europe providing high single-digit growth rates over the next several years.

NIKE owns the Converse brand, and this business should grow to approximately $3.0 billion in sales in fiscal 2017.

While Under Armour, Inc. (UA) has done extremely well on the stock market over the last couple of years as well, the company is much smaller than NIKE; I’d choose the maturity of NIKE’s brand over Under Armour.

In terms of direct competition for NIKE, there is adidas AG (ADDYY). This German company owns several brands, including Reebok, TaylorMade-adidas Golf, and Rockport. Adidas is not growing like NIKE, and I suspect that NIKE has been taking market share away from adidas, which is experiencing declining sales in its own market of Western Europe.

All in all, NIKE continues to be a great business, growing at a rate not typically associated with such large companies.

I think it’s fair to expect another dividend increase from NIKE in the near future. The position is fully priced on the stock market, but it always is.

 

 

The Hidden Dangers of Scalping In Forex

Webtrader

Scalping is an alluring draw for many new traders. It promises action, suspense, immediate gratification, and, if done well, bragging rights. In fact, scalping is the most often suggested trading method in Forex forums, and new traders, unaware of its dangers, frequently take their peers’ assurances at face value.

Scalping is a trading method in which the chart technician opens several very short-term trades with the aim of coming away with small gains each time. Scalpers, if they use a stop loss, typically set it to at least twice the amount of that they want to make in profit. A scalper utilizes indicators that lag the price less than others, such as the Relative Strength Index and the Fast Stochastic. They often also make use of non-lagging indicators that interpret volume, such as the Market Facilitation Index. With these indicators, they typically seek to identify retractions in established trends, or else make back-to-back trades within a range.

Additionally, the scalper may view several different charts at once, one for each major time frame: 1 minute, 5 minute, 15 minute, 1 hour and 4 hour. With these, they can identify areas of support and resistance and trend correlation.

However, as sophisticated as these methods are, there are significant dangers to scalping. Primary among these is the nature of scalping itself, which encourages the gambler’s mindset of “all or nothing.” Scalpers may ascribe too much importance to the result of a signal trade, becoming emotionally attached. The premise of scalping is that with a sound trading system, proper money management and sufficient volume, the scalper should end the day, week or month with a profit. If the scalper reacts badly to a single bad trade, however, they could begin making emotional decisions that can magnify that initial loss into the total loss of their account in a frighteningly brief amount of time.

Furthermore, while scalping is pushed on to new traders by more experienced ones and even some unscrupulous brokers, most novices do not have the account size required to truly benefit from scalping. For instance, most brokers that cater to new traders require a deposit of at least $300 and offer spreads of, at minimum, three pips. Three pips, however, is far too wide for the purposes of scalping. A professional scalper will trade with a spread of .5 pip, with one pip being the absolute maximum. Access to an account that provides such a spread typically requires an initial deposit of $10,000.

The difference between one pip and three pips may seem trivial at first glance—and it is for long term traders—but keep in mind that scalpers need to be in and out of the market in mere minutes. When dealing with tick charts, two pips can be a significant barrier to overcome, especially if it occurs in an area of resistance or support.

Another hidden danger of scalping lies in the fact that the countries that Forex currency pairs are based upon frequently release economic news. The market becomes incredibly volatile during these times and the price of the more active pairs can easily fluctuate over 100 pips. In such a tempest, the scalper has no hope of setting stop losses and is at the mercy of the market.

In addition to cluing in to economic data releases, steeling yourself against emotional trades and having adequate account size, you can minimize your risks when scalping by studying the major currency pairs. Each currency pair has a “personality” of sorts. It has a habitual daily and hourly range. If you can ingrain the way the currency pairs move in your subconscious by watching them move over a long period of time, your trading decisions will be better informed.

Additionally, it is of paramount importance that you have a tested trading system in place before you begin scalping and that you stick to it at all times. If you deviate even a bit, you will be in danger of making emotional, knee-jerk decisions, and you may lose your account.

Scalping is not, as it is often touted, the holy grail of Forex trading. It is a take-no-prisoners, cut-throat affair that exposes its practitioners to extreme risk and leaves no room for the weak. Arm yourself with knowledge and save the gambling for the poker table, and you may have a chance of joining the elite few who scalp profitably over the long term.

To learn more please visit www.clmforex.com

 

Singapore maintains policy, sees steady economic growth

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Singapore’s central bank maintained its policy stance, saying it expects the economy to continue to expand this year and into 2014 though “some volatility in growth rates is likely” in light of the uncertainties that currently characterize the international environment.
    The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which targets the Singapore dollar against a basket of foreign currencies as a way to control inflation, said it would “maintain its policy of a modest and gradual appreciation of the S$NEER policy band. There will be no change to the slope of the policy band and the level at which it is centred.”
    MAS added that the current width of its trading band for the Singapore dollar was considered sufficient to accommodate temporary fluctuations and would thus be maintained.
    “Barring a significant deterioration in global demand conditions, the labour market will remain tight, and exert further upward pressures on MAS core inflation as firms pass on accumulated costs to consumer prices,” MAS added.
    Singapore’s Gross Domestic Product contracted by 1.0 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter on an seasonally adjusted annualised basis, MAS said, referring to advance estimates by Singapore’s trade and industry ministry.

    But incoming data suggests that the recovery in the global economy is continuing and Singapore’s external-oriented sectors are expected to see a modest uplift while domestic-driven sectors, such as construction, healthcare and education remain resilient.
    “Overall GDP growth is projected at 2.5-3.5 percent in 2013, and is unlikely to be significantly different in 2014,” MAS said, adding that the labour market should remain at full employment.
    Singapore’s headline inflation rate inched up to 2.0 percent in August from 1.9 percent in July while the authority’s gauge for core inflation rose to 1.8 percent from 1.6 percent.
    “While global demand conditions will strengthen, spare production capacity in the advanced economies and ample supply buffers in commodity markets should keep a lid on imported inflation,” MAS said, adding that core inflation is expected to rise to 2-3 percent next year from 1.5-2.0 percent this year and the unemployment rate remains below its historical average and the pass-through of domestic costs to prices of consumer services could intensity.
    In July MAS revised down its forecast for 2013 CPI-All items inflation to 2-3 percent from its previous forecast of 3-4 percent in light of a sharp fall in car prices following the announcement of financing restrictions on motor vehicle loans.
    It said that it is currently expecting all-items inflation to come in a the upper range of its 2-3 percent forecast and for 2014 it is also forecasting all-items inflation at 2-3 percent.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

 

Monetary Policy Week in Review – Oct 7-11, 2013: Brazil raises rate as US gridlock threatens global economy

By www.CentralBankNews.info
    Last week four central banks, including Indonesia’s, kept their policy rates steady as Brazil continued its tightening cycle and Tajikistan cut its rate as global financial markets gyrated in sync with the prospect of reaching a solution to the U.S. political gridlock that is threatening the global economy.
    Observers believe Washington eventually will find a way to raise the debt ceiling and thus avoid a calamitous default, but the damage to the U.S.’s dominant role in the global financial system may already have happened.
   With the global economy for the second time in two years held hostage to U.S. political bickering over the federal debt ceiling and budget, international creditors, including China, are clearly worried with the consequence that the diversification of international reserves away from U.S. dollars is likely to accelerate.
    Even Stanley Fischer, former Bank of Israel governor, World Bank chief economist and International Monetary Fund first deputy managing director, seemed taken aback by how partisan politics in Washington are undermining international trust in the U.S.
    “This is a remarkable period in that both monetary policy and fiscal policy in the United States are at the center of uncertainty in the world, and about the world economy, and that is an extraordinary situation,” Fischer told Bloomberg television.
    “This was usually the country you could rely on,” Fischer added, thereby raising the prospect that the creditworthiness of the U.S. can no longer be taken for granted.
    This growing distrust in U.S. political leadership is likely to speed up the momentum toward a more multi-polar world, to paraphrase Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, who on Friday noted the share of emerging and developing economies of global output will rise to nearly two-thirds from one half in the next decade.
    “So the stage is set for a world, 20 or 30 years from now, where economic power will be far less concentrated in the advanced economies—and more vastly dispersed across all regions,” she said.
    As if to underscore this coming shift in economic power, the People’s Bank of China and the European Central Bank on Thursday agreed on a bilateral currency swap with a maximum size of 350 billion yuan, or 45 billion euros. This was another step toward the internationalization of the renminbi that will eventually allow it to become an international reserve currency.
    And Hong Kong’s securities exchange said it would apply a bigger discount to U.S. Treasuries used as collateral, an indication of how swift global financial markets are reacting to the threat of a U.S. default and the pivotal role of Treasuries in global finance.
    “Politicians don’t quite seem to have grasped how important the Treasury market is to the global financial system,” HSBC chief economist Stephen King told Reuters.
    Amidst the tumult in Washington politics, President Obama nominated Federal Reserve Deputy Governor Janet Yellen as successor to Ben Bernanke, an comforting decision as it guarantees continuity and an experienced hand in guiding U.S. monetary policy through the risky process of winding down quantitative easing and eventually normalizing policy.  

    Through the first 41 weeks of this year, the global trend toward lower rates continues to weaken as central banks have now raised rates 22 times, or 5.6 percent of this year’s 395 policy decisions by the 90 central banks followed by Central Bank News, up from 5.4 percent the previous week and from 4.7 percent at then end of June.
    Brazil again raised its rate this week, its fifth rate hike in a row, and signaled that it is likely to continue tightening by repeating the same statement that has accompanied the previous rate rises.
    Some economists had expected the Central Bank of Brazil to signal that its tightening cycle was coming to an end and viewed the lack of any new statement as a sign of further rate rises.
    Emerging markets account for 45 percent of the 22 rate rises worldwide, with Brazil, Indonesia and India accounting for nine of those rate rises.
    Tajikistan was the only other central bank to change rates last week, illustrating the absence of global inflationary pressures.
    Policy rates have been cut 90 times so far this year, or 22.8 percent of this year’s policy decisions, the same percentage as in the previous week but down from 25.3 percent after the first half of 2013.
    Despite the unease hanging over financial markets from politics in Washington and the downward revision in global growth forecasts by the IMF, the message from two central banks last week was surprisingly upbeat.
    South Korea, which held its rates steady, said exports were improving and domestic demand was improving while Peru, which also held rates steady, said indicators of the external market had shown a slight recovery.
    But embattled Indonesia, which paused after raising rates four times this year, had an opposite view, seeing a slowing global economy that will put pressure on its exports.
    The Bank of England also maintained its policy stance last week, but made no comment, as usual.

    LAST WEEK’S (WEEK 41) MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS:

COUNTRYMSCI     NEW RATE           OLD RATE         1 YEAR AGO
INDONESIAEM7.25%7.25%5.75%
TAJIKISTAN5.50%6.10%6.50%
BRAZILEM9.50%9.00%7.25%
SOUTH KOREAEM2.50%2.50%2.75%
UNITED KINGDOMDM0.50%0.50%0.50%
PERUEM4.25%4.25%4.25%

    This week (week 42) six central banks are scheduled to hold policy meetings, including those from Russia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Mozambique and Serbia, which pushed back its meeting to Friday from Thursday.

COUNTRYMSCI             DATE CURRENT  RATE         1 YEAR AGO
RUSSIAEM14-Oct8.25%8.25%
SINGAPORE14-Oct                 N/A                   N/A
SRI LANKAFM15-Oct7.00%7.50%
THAILANDEM16-Oct2.50%2.75%
MOZAMBIQUE16-Oct8.75%10.50%
SERBIAFM18-Oct11.00%10.75%

    www.CentralBankNews.info

AUDUSD remains in short term uptrend from 0.9280

AUDUSD remains in short term uptrend from 0.9280. Further rise to test 0.9526 resistance is still possible, a break above this level will signal resumption of the longer term uptrend from 0.8847 (Aug 5 low), then the following upward movement could bring price to 1.0000 zone. Support is now at the upward trend line on 4-hour chart, a clear break below the trend line support will indicate that the upward movement from 0.9280 has completed, then deeper decline to 0.9200 area could be seen.

audusd

Provided by ForexCycle.com

Portfolio Diversification: Don’t Fall For This Deadly Investing Mistake

By MoneyMorning.com.au

What’s the first thing you hear when you begin investing?

Our bet is it’s the same as one of the first things we heard as an investor.

At first glance it seems to be good advice. But when you look at it closely, it turns out it could be the worst advice investors ever take.

What are we talking about?

We’re talking about diversification – or as we prefer to call it, investment suicide…

One of the biggest fibs put around by mainstream investing pros is that investors should have balanced and diversified portfolios. They spin that yarn not because it’s the best advice, but because it suits them.

The more diversified your portfolio the less attention you need to pay to your investments.

That suits most of the financial services industry because it means they can cream off a few percentage points every year without having to do much work…and without having to talk to you.

They’re the same folks who, contrary to all the evidence before them, still tell you ‘buy and hold’ is still a winning formula for stock investing, when in reality it’s the worst form of investing.

Stock Pickers Beat Index Trackers

But we won’t dwell too much on ‘buy and hold’ versus active investing today. We’ve made our view clear on that over the past few years. Our view is that investors need to be active. That doesn’t necessarily mean trading in and out of stocks every day.

Being an active investor just means taking an active interest in your investments and your wealth. It just means frequently monitoring and adjusting your asset allocation.

The result is you’ll have more confidence in the stocks you pick. This gives you a better chance to outperform the broader index.

That’s important, because if you look at the performance of the All Ordinaries index going back to 1999, it has only gained 71.9%. That’s not terrible. But it’s not great either. So let’s see how the index stacks up against just a handful of blue-chip stocks:


Source: Google Finance

Every stock in this sample except Telstra [ASX: TLS] has at least doubled the performance of the All Ordinaries since 1999. Seeing that the five stocks we’ve chosen make up such a big part of the index, it just goes to show how a diversified portfolio kills returns.

Also, note the companies we’ve selected. They are big blue-chip stocks: BHP Billiton [ASX: BHP], Commonwealth Bank of Australia [ASX: CBA], Telstra [ASX: TLS], Westpac Banking Corporation [ASX: WBC], and Woolworths [ASX: WOW].

Those are big blue-chip stocks. If we’d picked a few small- or mid-cap stocks then the outperformance could have been even greater. But we wanted to give a genuine example of a handful of stocks many investors would have owned in 1999.

Of course, that’s all well and good, but won’t a diversified portfolio protect you in a falling market? Isn’t that the real point of having a diversified portfolio?

If that’s what you think you may be in for a surprise…

No Protection from a Diversified Portfolio

The following chart shows you the peak to trough for the same stocks and index from 2007 through to 2009:


Source: Google Finance

Not surprisingly given the nature of the financial meltdown in 2008, CBA shares fell the most, down 54.4%. But you’ll also note that the second worst performance was the All Ordinaries, down 53.7%.

In short, despite the tales you’ve often heard about diversification saving investors from falling markets, in this example the opposite is true. If you’d held these five stocks through the meltdown your portfolio would have dropped 38%.

While no one wants their stocks to fall, it’s still 15% better than the diversified index portfolio.

And if you had actively managed your portfolio, then maybe you could have sold out on the way down. But we won’t take that for granted. Besides, the point we’re trying to make is that diversification doesn’t always reduce your risk or minimise your losses.

In the case of the 2008 meltdown it actually increased your risk.

This shows the virtue of concentrating your portfolio into a small number of stocks that you’ve carefully picked out from all others. And while we aren’t a fan of ‘buy and hold’, even that strategy using just five stocks is better than a diversified ‘buy and hold’ strategy.

It just goes to show that over the longer term the conventional wisdom about buying a diversified portfolio isn’t necessarily true. Our view is (and our analysis confirms this) is that in order to build wealth, diversification isn’t the winning formula. The best approach is to pick a small number of individual stocks and actively manage them.

Cheers,
Kris
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From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

Special Report: UNAVOIDABLE: Australia’s First Recession in 22 Years

Twitter IPO Hits Pay Dirt From Data Mining

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Facebook (FB)…Groupon (GRPN)…Zynga (ZNGA)…Angie’s List (ANGI).

When we saw a rash of social media companies like these go public, I was sceptical.

To me, while their services were popular, their business models – their actual way of monetising that popularity – didn’t seem very secure, never mind lucrative.

I mean, who wants to own Angie’s List anyway? Great website…weird stock.

The main problem? While the lion’s share of these web companies’ revenue comes from advertising, as mobile technology advances, they’re struggling to keep pace.

For example, when Facebook launched last year, CEO Mark Zuckerberg and his band of overzealous investors faced one glaring issue: no mobile ad revenue…at all. And the stock tanked.

Oddly enough, Twitter faces the same issue. I say ‘oddly enough’ because Twitter isn’t supposed to have a mobile problem.

Its ‘microblogging’ concept is designed specifically for tablets and smartphones, so users can give immediate commentary anywhere…anytime.

But like everyone else in the social media industry, when people use Twitter’s mobile app, the company makes far less money from advertising.

However, unlike everyone else, Twitter has a lesser-known side business that’s proving very lucrative…

And when the company filed its S-1 last week, everyone focused on ad revenue and ignored this…

Almost a year ago, Tech & Innovation Daily noted that Big Data is one of today’s seven most investable technology trends.

Research firm IDC agrees. It says the Big Data market is growing seven times faster than the entire information technology sector and is on pace to be worth $16.9 billion in two years.

And Twitter proves why…

The company is selling its data.

You see, thanks to its public, real-time data, nothing compares to Twitter. Its endless stream of news, events, trends, opinions and experiences provides a wealth of insights and opportunities.

In fact, it’s spawned a vast commercial ecosystem called ‘Social Listening’.

Emerging from the innovation pipeline are social data firms – companies that essentially collect, dissect and analyse information. And they’re buying Twitter’s data to help their clients get a leg up on the competition.

Here’s How…

Ever wonder how Google (GOOG) ranks search queries?

Or how supercomputers crunch numbers light-years faster than humans?

In a word…algorithms.

When it comes to processing and analysing data and calculations, computer algorithms have become critical. Especially given today’s immense (and increasing) amount of data.

Just ask the clients of social data-mining firms.

Companies like DirecTV (DTV).

Let’s say there’s a service outage in a certain area. Rather than wait for an onslaught of calls and complaints, DTV can use Twitter’s social data analysis to stay ahead of the problem.

It’s certainly not the only one…

  • The United Nations uses Twitter algorithms to identify civil disorder hotspots.
  • Five Guys worked with Washington, D.C. social data firm New Brand Analytics to analyse how its hamburgers measured up against the competition.
  • Human resource departments use Twitter data to evaluate potential recruits.
    Even the Library of Congress is cataloguing tweets.
  • And Wall Street is using Twitter’s algorithms to get an edge on the market.

Take Dataminr, for example…

Dataminr serves active traders – something it did very well last week.

Five minutes before news broke about the shooting on Capitol Hill, Dataminr issued a sell alert to its subscribers. Its algorithm had picked up on tweets from eyewitnesses about the shooting.

The algorithm analysed the timing and location and determined that an urgent situation was developing. One with a high chance of a negative market response.

The program warned Dataminr…Dataminr warned its subscribers…and moments later, the S&P dropped by 20 points.

Fund managers also use algorithms to assess ‘sentiment scores’.

In other words, they trace investors’ mood on stocks – the forces that can push stocks higher or lower.

Very powerful, profitable information.

The question is: If knowledge is power, what’s the price for it?

Well, Japanese company NTT Data (Tokyo: 9613) paid Twitter $35.6 million per month last year for data.

Along with Gnip, Data Sift and Topsy, these four companies account for the bulk of Twitter’s data revenue.

They’re essentially data brokers. Or what Twitter calls ‘certified data resellers’.

Twitter sells its data to these firms – who, in turn, sell to companies looking for niche information.

So How is Twitter’s Competition Responding?

Well, Facebook has largely avoided the data-mining business, as it isn’t set up for conversations and real-time events like Twitter is. Rather, it’s geared towards sharing
among friends.

But with an eye towards Twitter’s additional data revenue, Facebook has recently partnered with companies to provide information about certain topics.

Like Twitter’s ‘trending’ application, tools can focus on people in certain areas and monitor emotive phrases. They can then create a heat map or sentiment score.

For decades, businesses have spent countless hours and millions of dollars trying to understand the past. But the innovative minds at Twitter are measuring the present.

They know that whenever we use social media, we provide vital, actionable information for companies to use in the here and now. And the company is finding ways to monetise that information.

Martin Biancuzzo
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: Twitter IPO Hits Pay Dirt From Data Mining article originally appeared in The Daily Reckoning USA

GOLD: Bearish, Looks To Weaken Further.

GOLD: Bearish, Looks To Weaken Further.

GOLD: With the commodity bearish and pointing lower, further downside pressure is likely. The threat is for more weakness to occur on breaking below that level possibly towards the 1,250.00 level. A turn below here will shift attention to the 1,215.00 level and next the 1,180.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside. Conversely, resistance lies at the 1,329 level where a breach will target the 1,399.79 level. A cut through here will open the door for a run at the 1,433 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside.

By fxtechstrategy.com

 

 

Born Libertarian: Doug Casey on Ron Paul and the Price of Freedom

Source: JT Long of The Gold Report (10/11/13)

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/born-libertarian-doug-casey-on-ron-paul-and-the-price-of-freedom

The country may be going in the wrong direction, but born Libertarians Dr. Ron Paul and Casey Research founder Doug Casey are enjoying the power of sowing dissention by spreading ideas. In this interview at the Casey Research 2013 Summit in the wake of Ron Paul’s keynote address, Casey tells The Gold Report why he believes the U.S. is looking more like ancient Rome in its final days and how he is planning for the coming crisis—in another country watching on his big-screen television.

The Gold Report: Doug, we are at your conference in Tucson, Arizona, the day after former Congressman and presidential candidate Dr. Ron Paul gave the keynote speech to a sold-out crowd. How did you two first meet?

Doug Casey: It was about 30 years ago. Ron used to attend my Eris Society (named after the Greek goddess of discord) meetings in Aspen, Colorado. Everyone from Sonny Barger of the Hells Angels motorcycle club to Burt Rutan, inventor of SpaceShipOne, would meet to discuss ideas.

TGR: In those 30 years have Ron Paul’s ideas changed much?

DC: Ron believes he was born a libertarian. He’s right. I believe in Pareto’s Law, the 80–20 rule. I prefer to think that 80% of humans are basically decent, which is to say that they were born libertarian oriented. But it takes a while to crystallize what that means. Ron and I, and many others, have moved beyond gut libertarianism to a structured, intellectual libertarianism.

Some people see the same things we see through a totally different lens, however. Those people tend to be the other 20%, or perhaps 20% of that 20%, or even 20% of that 20% of that 20%. They range from being wishy-washy on ethical subjects to being sociopaths or even outright criminals. These people are at the opposite end of the spectrum from us in every way.

TGR: One of the things Ron Paul mentioned last night is that a true libertarian advocates for the freedom of everyone to do what he or she wants as long as it’s not hurting someone else. This includes people who don’t agree with your views.

DC: Exactly. As opposed to busybodies who want to tell everybody else what to do. They think they know best and are perfectly willing to put a gun to your head to make sure that you do what they think is right.

TGR: We are meeting in the midst of a government shutdown. Ron Paul called it a paid holiday for federal workers. Are we doomed to an endless cycle of these man-made crises?

DC: I would like nothing better than to see the shutdown go on forever, but unfortunately the government is only shutting down things that inconvenience people, like monuments and national parks, things that should not be owned by the government to start with. I wish they would shut down all their praetorian agencies, like the FBI, the CIA and the NSA. Shut down the IRS. I am much more concerned about Silk Road being shutdown than I am the U.S. government being shut down.

TGR: Do you think regular people care whether government is shut down or not?

DC: Over half of Americans are living off the state, receiving more from the state than they’re putting into it, which makes them receivers of stolen property. They see the government as a cornucopia and therefore a good thing so they want it to be open and sending them checks.

The situation is fairly hopeless at this point and it’s likely to get a lot worse before it gets better. Trends in motion, in whatever direction, tend to stay in motion until they hit a crisis at which point they transform into something else. This trend is not only in motion, but it’s accelerating in the wrong direction.

TGR: Ron Paul said that the charade on the American people is that the two parties are different, that actually it’s not that we need a third party, but we need a second party. Your presentation compared the end of the Roman Empire to the state of the U.S. today. Is the current political system doing a better or worse job of protecting freedom and liberty in the U.S. compared to ancient Rome?

DC: The founders consciously modeled the U.S. after Rome, everything from the way government buildings looked to having an assembly and a senate. We are similar right down to the Latin mottos. When you model yourself after something, you eventually tend to resemble it. That partly explains why we are on the slippery slope of constant wars, less freedom, more power for the executive, destruction of the currency and barbarians at the gate. Another part is the natural tendency of all empires to reach their level of incompetence and then decline. It’s to be expected. Entropy dictates all things wind down and degrade.

As I pointed out in my speech, America has gone through periods of what paleontologists call punctuated disequilibrium. Things evolve gently in one direction and then experience massive change very quickly. I’m afraid that the U.S. might be approaching a phase similar to the one the Romans experienced before Diocletian made himself emperor. He completely changed the character of Rome; he believed that in order to save Rome, he had to destroy it.

As we go deeper into this crisis, of which we’re just currently in the early stages, there’s every chance that the American people are going to look for a savior, a strong man, probably a military person because Americans love and trust their military for some reason. I see the military as not much more than a heavily armed version of the post office, but I suspect that we’ll find someone who is the equivalent of Diocletian, who will change the whole nature of society radically in the wrong direction.

TGR: Do you believe in changing from within the system or just getting out from under the system? Would you ever run for public office?

DC: I think the situation is beyond retrieval at this point. People generally get the government they deserve. At this point, Americans are much more interested in freebies than they are in personal freedom. They are like scared little rabbits. They’re much more interested in safety than they are in personal liberty. I think they’re going to get what they deserve good and hard over the years to come. I would much rather watch what goes on in the U.S. on my widescreen TV in the lap of luxury in another country than be in the epicenter of things here. The system is beyond the point where it can be reformed.

And, no, I have zero desire to run for office. Plus, anyone who runs for office disqualifies himself for being in a position of power by the very fact that he wants to be in that position. My friend Harry Browne always used to say that when he ran for president on the Libertarian ticket the first thing he’d do if he were elected would be to quit—at least after rescinding all outstanding Executive Orders and recalling all the troops. Anyway, even if Ron Paul had been elected president and if he tried to make the necessary changes, the public would have rioted, Congress would have impeached him, and the heads of the CIA, FBI and the military would have sat him down and subtly intimated that they have the power and he shouldn’t do anything they don’t want done—or undone.

I don’t think a change can be made at this point. I’m just interested in seeing what happens when we really get involved in a really big crisis, which I think is going to happen in the next couple of years as we go back into the trailing edge of the economic hurricane that started in 2007.

TGR: One of the things that has come up as part of the shutdown debate is healthcare. Do you have health insurance? And, how would you control healthcare costs?

DC: First of all, I don’t call it health insurance because it doesn’t insure your health. That’s something that you’re personally responsible for, not some third party. I call it medical insurance. Just as I call the FDA the Federal Death Authority because it probably kills more people every year than the Department of Defense does in a typical decade by slowing down the approval and hugely raising the cost of new drugs and technologies.

Getting to back to your question, no, I don’t have medical insurance. If anything goes wrong with my body, I’ll treat it as I would if something goes wrong with my car. I’ll find the best doctor elsewhere in the world where medical costs can be 20% of what they are in this country. I’ll pay for it in cash. I don’t want to have to fight with an insurance company, or the government, about what’s covered or not.

The whole idea of everybody having medical insurance is a corruption that arose during World War II when companies used insurance to attract workers. Then we had Medicare and then Medicaid. These are the reasons costs have escalated. In a free market society, medical costs should have collapsed and gone down in the same way as the cost of computers have collapsed and gone down even as they’ve gotten vastly better. People think they need the government in medicine, but it’s been totally counterproductive. It’s done the opposite of what was intended.

TGR: One of the things Ron Paul mentioned is that his speeches on college campuses, including UC Berkeley, have been some of the most well received. Do you have hope for the next generation?

DC: Yes, there is reason for hope over the longer term. Generally, older people in this country have voted all these “benefits” for themselves, and they don’t want to have their rice bowls broken. The younger people are being turned into indentured servants to pay for these benefits. Young people are figuring this out.

Another worrisome thing is that a lot of young people have indentured themselves by taking on huge amounts of college debt; $1.2 trillion is the current number. They can’t even discharge it through bankruptcy, although many are unable to pay it. More and more are deciding that doing four years in a college, to experience indoctrination from wrongheaded professors, is a complete misallocation of both their time and their money.

If I had to do it again, I definitely would not go to college. I recommend others skip college, unless they need to learn a specific technical set of skills, such as doctoring or lawyering or engineering or a science where you need lab work. Most kids today, however, are going off to college for things like gender studies, political science and English. These are things you should learn on your own, on your own time, at no cost. Meanwhile, avoid the indoctrination of the creatures who hang out in university faculty rooms who teach because they are incapable of doing anything else.

TGR: Ron Paul intimated that we’re in a middle of a revolution. You said that the solution to our problems would be less command and control and more entrepreneurs. Are the small business owners the real revolutionaries?

DC: They could and should be, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to start a business because of the regulatory and tax environment in the U.S. Smart people are leaving in droves. There just aren’t enough left to change things. I’m afraid we’re just going to have to let things take their course.

The main function that Ron Paul has served was educating people, which is necessary and laudable. But, the odds of him succeeding in changing things are close to zero.

TGR: You talked about the role of education and Ron Paul mentioned the power of the Internet to circulate new ideas based on the theory that ideas have consequences. Your ideas are having an impact thanks to the power of the Internet. Does that bode well for the future?

DC: It does. The Internet is the best thing that’s happened since Gutenberg invented movable type and the printing press; it’s a marvelous thing. That’s exactly why the government wants to regulate the Internet. It sees it as a huge danger.

TGR: Does suppressing ideas ever work? Is it working in China?

DC: Actually, in many ways China is freer than the U.S., but that’s not one of them.

If you are a businessman and you keep your nose out of politics, it actually is freer. You’ll have less taxes, less regulation in China than you would in the U.S. But instead of emulating the free part of China, the U.S. government is trying to copy the Internet restrictions because it sees the Internet as a danger to the existing order. And they’re right.

TGR: But didn’t the governments of Middle Eastern countries find out that ideas have a life of their own and they find a way to spread despite attempts to shut them down?

DC: They do, so let’s hope for the best.

TGR: Finally, Ron Paul said that things are worse than the government will admit and the idea of economic growth this year is a dream. He said we need to be serious, but not despondent. Make financial plans, but have fun doing it. Do you agree and are you having fun yet?

DC: I am having fun. I’m doing this not because I need the money, but because it’s amusing and it’s good karma to sow dissention in the ranks of the enemy.

TGR: Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

DC: Thank you.

The audio recordings of the Casey Research 2013 Summit are available here.

Doug Casey, chairman of Casey Research LLC, is the international investor personified. He’s spent substantial time in more than 175 different countries so far in his lifetime, residing in 12 of them. And Casey literally wrote the book on crisis investing. In fact, he’s done it twice. After “The International Man: The Complete Guidebook to the World’s Last Frontiers” in 1976, he came out with “Crisis Investing: Opportunities and Profits in the Coming Great Depression” in 1979. His sequel to this groundbreaking book, which anticipated the collapse of the savings-and-loan industry and rewarded readers who followed his recommendations with spectacular returns, came in 1993, with “Crisis Investing for the Rest of the Nineties.” In between, Casey’s “Strategic Investing: How to Profit from the Coming Inflationary Depression” broke records for the largest advance ever paid for a financial book.

Casey has appeared on NBC News, CNN and National Public Radio. He’s been a guest of David Letterman, Larry King, Merv Griffin, Charlie Rose, Phil Donahue, Regis Philbin and Maury Povich. He’s been featured in periodicals such as Time, Forbes, People, US, Barron’s and the Washington Post—not to mention countless articles he’s written for his own websites, publications and subscribers. Casey Research currently produces 11 publications on a variety of investment sectors and maintains two websites.

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