Month: September 2013

By WallStreetDaily.com

If you’re tired of living in a chronic state of “information overload,” we feel you! It seems the investment news and commentary never cease.

Not to worry – we’re here to help…

Following the notion that “a picture is worth a thousand words,” each Friday we select a handful of charts to put important economic and investment news into perspective for you.

So say goodbye to long-winded commentary, and hello to easy-to-understand pictures.

Resistance is Futile

Ever hear the Wall Street adage, “Don’t fight the Fed”?

Well, here’s proof why we’d be well served to heed that advice.

During Fed Chairman Bernanke’s tenure, we’ve witnessed unprecedented monetary easing. And true to form, it prompted the stock market to regain all its losses – and then go on to hit new all-time highs.

All told, the Dow is up almost 45% since Bernanke took office in February 2006. At least he’s got that working for his legacy, which is nice.

The Roof, the Roof, the Roof is on Fire

The housing recovery is blazing hot, based on the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index figures. Home prices increased 12.4% from July 2012 to July 2013.

Of course, real estate is a regional investment. So the price increases haven’t been even across all 20 major markets measured.

That means bargains still exist. We just need to know where to look. (Hint: Steer clear of Dallas and Denver; try your luck in Vegas, instead.)

For Richer or Poorer… But, Mostly Poorer

The Census Bureau released new income and poverty data. The key takeaway? Take a look:

Over the last 12 years, median incomes increased only two times on a year-over-year basis. (And we saw statistically insignificant increases during two other years.)

All told, median incomes are off 6.6% since 2000. So if you feel poorer now than you did when the dot-com bubble collapsed, well… it’s because you are!

In relation to the rest of the world, however, we’re still richly blessed. (In terms of GDP per capita, the United States ranks as the sixth highest in the world.)

Forget about the financial fitness of the average American, though. Let’s talk about our physical fitness…

Gluttony, Anyone?

We all know that obesity in America is a serious issue. But, this chart should help put it into perspective. It’s more serious than you think.

The average American is the heaviest of all.

The cause? Again, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. We eat too much!

Since 1981, U.S. calorie consumption surged 21.8%, to 3,900 calories per day.

The USDA’s Agriculture Fact Book says that the increase in eating out is partly to blame for the uptick. (The food-away-from-home sector accounts for more than 30% of total food energy consumption now. That’s up from only 18% in the late 1970s.)

Nice try. But in our gut (pun intended), we know better. It’s overconsumption. Plain and simple.

Now, if I were a betting man, I wouldn’t bet on Americans cutting back any time soon. Instead, I’d bet on companies selling drugs to deal with Type 2 diabetes, like Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO).

That’s it for this week. Before you go, though, let us know what you think of this weekly column – or any of our recent work at Wall Street Daily – by going here.

Ahead of the tape,

Louis Basenese

The post Friday Charts: Real Estate, Bernanke and the Best Drug Stocks to Own appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Friday Charts: Real Estate, Bernanke and the Best Drug Stocks to Own

By Profit Confidential

The financial crisis of 2008 was the biggest panic America had witnessed since the Great Depression. Dubbed the “Great Recession,” its after-effects linger. In fact, this is the worst post-bust recovery on record.

Today, for investors, especially stock market investors, there are two camps: those who believe we are in recovery, and those (like me) who believe something is wrong with this recovery…it doesn’t feel or smell right.

America, I believe, was forever changed following the financial crisis. There are more people working into their retirement years today than ever before because they can’t make it without working. There are more people on food stamp programs and government handouts than ever before.

As I wrote yesterday, the housing recovery isn’t real. We don’t have first-time home buyers coming in and buying homes to live in (like they should). Instead, large financial institutions have taken up the inventory of foreclosed homes to rent them out for a profit.

And most of the jobs that have been created since the financial crisis have been in the low-paying service sector—in retail jobs and restaurant jobs. Our kids are graduating from college (with plenty of debt) and are unable to find the job they trained for because they are competing against older middle managers for these jobs.

Our Federal Reserve, which I believe could be the only central bank in the world not owned by the government of the country it operates in, says our economic problems can be corrected by printing lots of extra paper money. That’s what the media is having us believe, too.

The real story is that money printing has only helped Wall Street and the big banks. The stock market is higher today, not because companies are making bigger profits, but because all that new money the Fed is creating is making its way back into the stock market. Artificially low interest rates are enabling big corporations to borrow money to buy back their own stock, right in the open stock market, giving us the impression that per-share earnings are increasing at a respectable rate.

With the Fed buying mortgage-backed securities, the big banks are getting rid of their junk loans in exchange for cash. (Great gig if you can get it!) But instead of taking that money and making loan requirements easier for would-be home buyers and business people, big banks are using the money to either buy back their own stock or to invest for their own good. This is what I believe is really happening here with the stock market, and this is why the rich are getting richer in this country and the poor are getting poorer.

But a funny thing happened on the way to higher stock market prices—the small guy missed out. According to a Gallup survey done in April of this year, only half of Americans have invested in individual stocks, equity funds, self-directed 401(k)s, or IRAs. That’s down a whopping 25% since mid-2002! (Source: “Why Individual Investors are Fleeing Stocks,” Wall Street Journal, July 10, 2013.)

Small investors never really came back to the stock market after the tech crash of 2000; they were further scared off by the housing bust of 2007 and the financial crisis of 2008. Most small investors have missed the run-up in the stock market since 2009.

As for me, I’ve been recommending caution with the stock market for the majority of 2013. How can I tell my readership that it’s even remotely okay to invest in the stock market after what you’ve just read above? Sure, my call may not have been on the money so far this year. But at what point does the entire Ponzi scheme of the Fed printing money and giving it to the big banks and the government (to pay its bills) end? No one knows for sure, but all good things do come to an end.

The tech stock market rally of 1998-1999 ended badly. The housing boom of 2005-2006 ended badly. The stock market rally of 2007 ended badly. Why would the current stock market boom (stock prices are up 138% since 2009 without a major correction yet) be any different in its ending?

Through my career, I have been successful at buying low and selling high. I don’t consider buying stocks today as “buying low.” But there is another investment I do consider “kicked-in-the-gut” and outright depressed. And if you have the foresight and guts, that’s the kind of investment you should get into while its price is low. I’ll give you a hint: I write about it in these pages often, it’s yellow, and you can’t just print more of it!

Article by profitconfidential.com

By Profit Confidential

One important company that reports its latest earnings this afternoon is NIKE, Inc. (NKE). This company is very good at making money for shareholders, and it should be on every long-term investor’s list to consider when it’s down on the stock market. NIKE has proven itself to be an excellent operator, even in the face of persistently slow economic growth.

It’s very difficult these days to find consistent wealth creators. You need an underlying business that continues to stay ahead of the marketplace, and you need financial metrics that consistently keep institutional investors happy. The combination of factors required to produce both is difficult for any company to maintain. So far, NIKE’s been pretty good at it.

Today, NIKE reports on its fiscal first quarter of 2014. In its previous quarter, the company generated seven-percent growth in revenues to $6.7 billion. Fully diluted earnings per share grew an impressive 27% to $0.76. Cash and short-term investments swelled, and for all of fiscal 2013, the company bought back 33.5 million shares for $1.7 billion.

It would not surprise me at all if NIKE boosted its quarterly dividend once again. The company’s 10-year stock chart is featured below:

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

I’ve always found it kind of odd that the running shoe business can continually be so successful over time, but it is for NIKE. Several Wall Street analysts recently boosted their earnings estimates on the company for its fiscal first quarter of 2014 and fiscal year 2014.

I believe a company like NIKE is a worthwhile buy as a long-term holding when it’s down on the stock market. As a proven operator, this position isn’t typically down for long, and this is more so because of market-related trends than operational weakness. (See “Why Corporate Earnings Are Taking a Back Seat to the Fed.”)

I like proven and consistent wealth creators like this company. It might be a mature, old-economy type of business, but consistency of return on investment is a valuable thing. While you can’t predict the future, NIKE has proven in the past that it can deliver.

I would say that this stock is fully priced right now. But it typically is because it just keeps growing. Last quarter, NIKE noted that it experienced sales weakness in Western Europe and Greater China. But it still managed to generate a solid gain in revenues, which for many other companies of the same size, is no longer achievable.

I look forward to reviewing NIKE’s numbers and its form 10-Q, which is much more revealing.

This year’s stock market leaders are highly likely to continue to be next year’s market leaders. Blue chip leadership is alive and well, and a company like NIKE, which is a mature business and brand, certainly might experience a slow quarter every once in a while. But the company’s track record, to me, is very meaningful. Even though the stock is at an all-time high, I wouldn’t bet against this enterprise.

Article by profitconfidential.com

By Profit Confidential

The social media space continues to be powered by jet fuel. The gains in the Internet space have been sizzling hot, and while there has been some overdone euphoric buying, my long-term assessment continues to be bullish, given the amazing potential for advances in the Internet space.

Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ/FB), for instance, fell to a low of $18.80 in October 2012, prior to staging a major rally to above its initial public offering (IPO) price of $45.00. Facebook has returned over 132% over the past 52 weeks, which is well ahead of the 18% advance by the S&P 500.

If you’ve been reading my column, you’d understand my positive bias toward Internet and social media stocks. (Read “Facebook Does an About-Face: Set to Move Higher?”) With over a billion subscribers, Facebook was a story just waiting to develop.

Take a look at the chart of the Dow Jones U.S. Internet Index below. The upward trend since mid-2012 has been impressive, with the index up over 60% and continuing to show bullish signs, based on my technical analysis.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

The next big Internet game-changing IPO on the docket waiting to debut is social media company Twitter, Inc., which just assigned its $1.5-billion IPO listing to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The company’s possible debut date has not been determined yet, but it will likely be before the year’s end.

We know that Twitter, like Facebook, has tons of users, but it’s absent of profits. However, the potential with these Internet social media stocks lies in not whether they make money, but the size of their user base, and whether the company can monetize its users, eventually making money from them.

For the individual investor who has no chance of picking up shares of Twitter at its IPO price, you will have to wait until the actual debut. The only thing is that by the time Twitter begins its first trade on the NYSE, the price will likely be double that of its IPO price. I suggest you wait and see if there’s a lull in the stock price, as was the case with Facebook and its IPO.

At this point, I believe the valuations in many of these U.S. social media stocks are overdone. I would wait for a sale, rather than chase the current high prices.

Even the U.S.-listed Chinese Internet stocks have been all the rage lately, with excellent gains over the past few months. These include E-Commerce China Dangdang Inc. (NYSE/DANG), SINA Corporation (NASDAQ/SINA), Youku Tudou Inc. (NYSE/YOKU), and Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ/BIDU).

A Chinese social media play that has not benefited as much as the other players is social media company Renren Inc. (NYSE/RENN), which may be worth a look.

The key with trading in the Internet sector is to follow the momentum, but be sure to take some profits along the way and always buy on weakness.

Article by profitconfidential.com

By Profit Confidential

The U.S. housing market is “hot;” home prices are going up and up. At least that’s what the mainstream’s saying.

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index, considered a key indicator of the U.S housing market, increased to 159.18 in July. In June, it stood at 158.20. Since the beginning of the year, the index of home prices in 20 major cities in the U.S. economy has increased by roughly 7.5%. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site, last accessed September 24, 2013.)

Why isn’t this bullish news pushing up homebuilder stocks? Or more importantly, what are those leading indicator stocks trying to tell us by collapsing 20% since their May high?

As I continue to write in these pages, I am skeptical of the rise in home prices in the U.S. housing market. I believe the rebound in the housing market activity is a direct result of the Federal Reserve’s easy money and nothing else.

To have real growth in the housing market, you need buyers who are going to actually live in the homes they purchase. This analogy can also be used for other commodities. For example, to assess the condition in the copper market, if you see increased buying by companies that make copper products, this suggests there’s demand. On the contrary, if you see speculators, then you can assume they will bail as soon as they make some money on their trade.

The U.S. housing market has accumulated too many speculators. It is well documented in these pages how institutional investors are buying homes, fixing them up, and then renting them out.

For the housing market, one key indicator I follow is the activity of first-time home buyers—and they’re just not there in this recovery.

Take existing-homes sales for August, for example. First-time home buyers only accounted for 28% of all the sales in the housing market for that month. In July, they accounted for 29%. A year ago, they made up 31% of the sales. (Source: National Association of Realtors, September 19, 2013.) The number of first-time home buyers entering the housing market continues to fall—a bad omen for the recovery. On average, first-time home buyers should account for 40% of all existing-home sales.

And mortgage rates have been rising. As rates increase, it makes homes less affordable for many buyers.

In September the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks the sentiment of homebuilders, was unchanged after hitting an almost eight-year high. The chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), David Crowe, said, “Following a solid run up in builder confidence over the past year, we are seeing a pause in the momentum as consumers wait to see where interest rates settle and as the headwinds of tight credit, shrinking supplies of lots for development and increasing labor costs continue.” (Source: “Builder Confidence Unchanged in September,” National Association of Homebuilders, September 17, 2013.)

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Homebuilder stocks, as the chart above illustrates, are down a little more than 20% since their May peak. I would not be surprised to see them decline further. As an investor, you know the stock market is a forward-looking animal. Homebuilder stocks declining so rapidly show investors don’t want to own them. And in the past, the action in homebuilder stocks has always led the direction of the housing market in the U.S. So next time you hear housing is making a “comeback,” remember what you just read here. All is not as rosy as it seems for the housing market.

Michael’s Personal Notes:

Boy, they just don’t like gold bullion. The gold bears are getting excited over every negative movement in gold prices. As soon as the precious metal’s prices decline a little, we start to hear chants, like “Gold bullion is useless.” Sadly, most of the market is too focused on the short term—the daily, weekly, or even monthly fluctuations—which is wrong.

I keep my eye on the long-term picture.

Before going into any details, please look at the chart below of gold bullion prices since 1970.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Looking at this chart, an observation one can make is that gold prices are known to have price swings, meaning they go up significantly and then come back down.

From 1970 to 1974, gold bullion prices increased by more than 440%; then in November of 1974, they started their decline. The precious metal’s prices found a bottom in 1976, and in that period, prices dropped more than 45%. (Source: “Past Data,” StockCharts.com, last accessed September 24, 2013.)

Moving forward, in August of 1976, we saw the beginning of another bull run in gold prices. This rise continued on until the beginning of 1980. In this period, the precious metal’s prices increased by more than 705%. From there, until June of 1982, gold bullion prices declined more than 63%.

From then on, the price of gold moved sideways for a while, but there were heavy fluctuations in between.

Then came 2001, when the precious metal found a bottom and started to go higher, increasing 291% until March of 2008. After this time, we saw a decline of almost 30% in a very short period.

Following this, another bull run was born. From then on, gold bullion prices increased about 170% until 2011, when the price hit $1,900 an ounce.

Since then, we have seen scrutiny. Gold prices made a low at around $1,200 an ounce—or a decline of about 35%—not too long ago.

Dear reader, the moral of the story is that the fluctuation we have seen in gold bullion prices is nothing new. My opinion? When the bears say gold bullion prices are in a “bubble,” they shouldn’t be trusted. We have seen all this in the past. The gold bears were wrong then; they are going to have the same fate again.

I continue to be bullish on gold bullion for the following reasons:

Central banks are still printing paper money, as their economies are still in trouble. They are fixated on printing to bring down the value of their currencies. But gold bullion is a global currency. To give you some idea about their sentiment, the president of Switzerland’s central bank, Thomas Jordan, said, “At the moment there’s no reason to discuss an exit of the cap—the minimum exchange rate is still very, very important.” (Source: “SNB Says Franc Ceiling ‘Essential’ to Protect Economy,” Bloomberg, September 19, 2013.) In other words, the central bank plans to keep printing its own currency. Eventually, all this paper money printing (with nothing backing the paper) will catch up with world central banks in a bad way.

Meanwhile, demand for gold bullion worldwide is increasing. The longer gold bullion prices remain stressed, the bigger the eventual impact on the supply side.

What He Said:

“If I had to pick one stock exchange that would rank as the best performer of 2007, it would be the TSX (Canada’s equivalent of the NYSE). Interest rates in Canada remain very low and they are not expected to rise any time soon. Americans looking to diversify their portfolios, both as a hedge against the U.S. dollar and a play on gold bullion’s price rise, should consider the TSX. Most brokers in the U.S. can buy stock on this exchange.” Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, February 8, 2007. The TSX was one of the top-performing stock markets in 2007, up nearly 20% for the year.

Article by profitconfidential.com

By Profit Confidential

Boy, they just don’t like gold bullion. The gold bears are getting excited over every negative movement in gold prices. As soon as the precious metal’s prices decline a little, we start to hear chants, like “Gold bullion is useless.” Sadly, most of the market is too focused on the short term—the daily, weekly, or even monthly fluctuations—which is wrong.

I keep my eye on the long-term picture.

Before going into any details, please look at the chart below of gold bullion prices since 1970.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Looking at this chart, an observation one can make is that gold prices are known to have price swings, meaning they go up significantly and then come back down.

From 1970 to 1974, gold bullion prices increased by more than 440%; then in November of 1974, they started their decline. The precious metal’s prices found a bottom in 1976, and in that period, prices dropped more than 45%. (Source: “Past Data,” StockCharts.com, last accessed September 24, 2013.)

Moving forward, in August of 1976, we saw the beginning of another bull run in gold prices. This rise continued on until the beginning of 1980. In this period, the precious metal’s prices increased by more than 705%. From there, until June of 1982, gold bullion prices declined more than 63%.

From then on, the price of gold moved sideways for a while, but there were heavy fluctuations in between.

Then came 2001, when the precious metal found a bottom and started to go higher, increasing 291% until March of 2008. After this time, we saw a decline of almost 30% in a very short period.

Following this, another bull run was born. From then on, gold bullion prices increased about 170% until 2011, when the price hit $1,900 an ounce.

Since then, we have seen scrutiny. Gold prices made a low at around $1,200 an ounce—or a decline of about 35%—not too long ago.

Dear reader, the moral of the story is that the fluctuation we have seen in gold bullion prices is nothing new. My opinion? When the bears say gold bullion prices are in a “bubble,” they shouldn’t be trusted. We have seen all this in the past. The gold bears were wrong then; they are going to have the same fate again.

I continue to be bullish on gold bullion for the following reasons:

Central banks are still printing paper money, as their economies are still in trouble. They are fixated on printing to bring down the value of their currencies. But gold bullion is a global currency. To give you some idea about their sentiment, the president of Switzerland’s central bank, Thomas Jordan, said, “At the moment there’s no reason to discuss an exit of the cap—the minimum exchange rate is still very, very important.” (Source: “SNB Says Franc Ceiling ‘Essential’ to Protect Economy,” Bloomberg, September 19, 2013.) In other words, the central bank plans to keep printing its own currency. Eventually, all this paper money printing (with nothing backing the paper) will catch up with world central banks in a bad way.

Meanwhile, demand for gold bullion worldwide is increasing. The longer gold bullion prices remain stressed, the bigger the eventual impact on the supply side.

What He Said:

“If I had to pick one stock exchange that would rank as the best performer of 2007, it would be the TSX (Canada’s equivalent of the NYSE). Interest rates in Canada remain very low and they are not expected to rise any time soon. Americans looking to diversify their portfolios, both as a hedge against the U.S. dollar and a play on gold bullion’s price rise, should consider the TSX. Most brokers in the U.S. can buy stock on this exchange.” Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, February 8, 2007. The TSX was one of the top-performing stock markets in 2007, up nearly 20% for the year.

Article by profitconfidential.com

AUDUSD’s fall from 0.9526 extends to as low as 0.9332. Deeper decline to test 0.9300 support is possible, as long as this level holds, the fall could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 0.8892, one more rise towards 1.0000 is still possible after consolidation. On the downside, a breakdown below 0.9300 support will indicate that the uptrend from 0.8892 had completed at 0.9526 already, then the following downward movement could bring price back to re-test 0.8847 (Aug 5 low) support.

Provided by ForexCycle.com

Source: Peter Byrne of The Life Sciences Report (9/26/13)

http://www.thelifesciencesreport.com/pub/na/john-mccamant-scans-under-the-radar-for-promising-biotechs

With more than 25 years of experience in the biotech market, John McCamant, editor of the Medical Technology Stock Letter, understands how the seasons of the investment cycle can influence a company’s value. But he sticks to the fundamentals: After all, a great pipeline and competent management can propel a biotech upward through blustery weather as well as blue sky. Find out how four companies fit his philosophy in this interview with The Life Sciences Report.

The Life Sciences Report: The medical biotech sector has generally been going great guns in 2013. Is there a seasonal aspect to the overall performance of biotech stocks? Are some seasons preferable to other seasons from an investment point of view?

John McCamant: Historically, January has been a good month, as many small- to mid-cap biotech stocks that were sold for tax losses before year-end can have significant price moves in the New Year. This is commonly referred to as “the January Effect.” The American Society of Clinical Oncology’s annual meeting—the world’s largest cancer meeting, held in May—can also be a strong time of year for biotech stock movement, as more than 50% of drug candidates in development are targeted toward treating cancer or the side effects of cancer treatment.

While there are some seasonal aspects to biotech investing, the primary drivers of good performance remain good news flow and a positive overall market environment for this sector of growth stocks. On the negative side, summer has historically been tough for biotech investors. This past summer is a good example of this trend not holding true. The biotech indices were up nicely, based on a good overall market and a slew of individual companies, like Isis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ISIS:NASDAQ), delivering value-creating data.

TLSR: What biotech fundamentals do you use to decide whether to invest in a startup?

JM: We generally do not invest in startups, as there are many biotech companies to choose from and we prefer to see how the startups execute as public companies for a few years before we would recommend. Our key focus is on management: No matter how good a company’s drug candidates are, it still requires a tremendous amount of skill and patience to navigate the drug approval process. From there, we evaluate the pipelines and specific drug candidates against others in their competitive therapeutic sectors.

TLSR: How important is finding a partner in the early stages of product development to a biotech? Is stock dilution something to be wary about?

JM: Partnerships can be very important for early-stage biotech companies, as they can provide significant funding and validation. Each partnership needs to be evaluated on its own, given the myriad of variables from partnership to partnership. Some of the variables we examine are stage of development, size of disease opportunity and the expertise of the partner.

All biotech companies lose lots of money before profitability. The business model is to sell stock to fund company development. Thus we, as investors, expect to be diluted over time in biotech companies. The key is whether or not the capital raised creates value for the shareholders. Companies that execute well in clinical trials can usually raise capital after they announce positive clinical trial results. This can also minimize dilution as the higher share price after good data allows for fewer shares to be sold.

TLSR: Let’s talk about Pharmacyclics Inc. (PCYC:NASDAQ). Its stock shot from $15 in early 2012 to about $120 today. What are the market prospects for ibrutinib (a Bruton’s tyrosine kinase inhibitor targeting B-cell malignancies such as chronic lymphocytic leukemia), which is on the brink of FDA approval? Is there risk associated with the meteoric rise of Pharmacyclics shares?

JM: We recommended Pharmacyclics at $17 in January 2012. As the days count down for ibrutinib’s FDA approval, the company has enlisted a truly impressive lineup to launch in the U.S. The company has prepared its sales, marketing and medical affairs departments, led by experienced industry executives from the crème de la crème of biopharmaceutical companies.

For example, the executive vice president of sales and marketing, Paula Boultbee, joined from the company after working at Amgen Inc. (AMGN:NASDAQ), where she was involved in the development of Vectibix (panitumumab)—and, more importantly, led the global launch of Gleevec (imatinib) while atNovartis AG (NVS:NYSE). Vice president of sales Michael Crum arrived in January after 13 years at Genentech (Roche Holding AG (RHHBY:OTCQX)), cross-trained in selling cancer treatments including Rituxan (rituximab), Avastin (bevacizumab) and Herceptin (trastuzumab). A total of 62 sales representatives are ready once the FDA grants a label. Janssen Biotech Inc. (a division of Johnson & Johnson [JNJ:NYSE]) already has an oncology sales organization in place. While Pharmacyclics records all U.S. sales, some investors may forget that the company is working with Janssen—maybe the most powerful global sales force around—domestically as well, while Johnson & Johnson prepares for international launches. In addition, medical affairs with four specific functional teams are also in place—medical sciences, medical communications, medical Information and medical science liaisons.

In a nutshell, Pharmacyclics is ready. We remain confident that FDA approval will happen sooner than expected, and that the rollout of ibrutinib will be bigger than current forecasts. In our view, ibrutinib is the safest and best cancer drug to date, and is poised to blow away analysts’ estimates upon FDA approval.

TLSR: What about vaccines? What new types of platforms and manufacturing techniques are in the pipeline?

JM: Novavax Inc. (NVAX:NASDAQ) is a company that I follow in the vaccine space. While known as a flu vaccine company, in our view, Novavax’s technology represents a platform that will deliver multiple vaccine opportunities, in addition to vaccines for seasonal and pandemic flu.

The company recently presented promising respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine data at the Interscience Conference on Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy. The phase 1 study of 220 healthy elderly adults was the first presentation of the data at a major scientific symposium. The company’s RSV F vaccine candidate was found to be well tolerated, compatible with co-administration of an influenza vaccine and elicited increases in antibodies with potentially protective effects, according to a company press release. The release also states, “Changes in all measures of RSV antibodies, including microneutralization assays, were positively correlated. The RSV F vaccine did not interfere with responses to the influenza vaccine”—this is critical for ultimate development of a novel combination flu/RSV vaccine that Novavax is likely to undertake.

In another preclinical study, according to that same Sept. 11 press release, “investigators evaluated whether palivizumab-competing antibodies induced by the RSV F vaccine could provide passive protection in a relevant model.” Palivizumab (Synagis/MedImmune LLC; a subsidiary of AstraZeneca) is a monoclonal antibody used to help prevent RSV disease. Novavax is building an excellent database of pre- and human clinical data that, when compared with Synagis’ regulatory success, provides the company with a foundation for registration studies. In our view, Novavax is the clear leader in developing an RSV vaccine, which could easily be a $2 billion-plus ($2B+) market opportunity.

TLSR: Anticoagulants are an important market. Do you have any picks for firms that are well positioned in the clinical trial process?

JM: We like The Medicines Company (MDCO:NASDAQ), which is focused on acute care medicine in the hospital setting. The company markets three proprietary drugs, has four late-stage compounds expected to be commercialized by 2015 and is developing an exciting early-stage R&D pipeline.

The Medicines Company is led by an experienced management team that is second to none, in our view. The team has succeeded in diversifying the company’s product line with strategic vision and a deep understanding of its customer base. As a result, the company’s future is less dependent on its anticoagulant drug Angiomax (bivalirudin), its lead product, which is expected to eventually face generic competition.

The Medicines Company has created a dominant franchise in the multibillion dollar acute cardiovascular care space. Furthermore, its novel pipeline includes both complementary and next-generation products that are easily leveraged across the company’s sales force. In addition to the cardiac suite, The Medicines Company is synergistically diversifying into surgical and perioperative medicine, and hospital-based infectious disease. The result is a core, focused and stable current revenue and earnings stream that should lead to accelerating growth rates derived from a variety of drivers. That transformation is occurring now and, we believe, will result in sustainable long-term sales and earnings power and, hence, multiple expansion.

As impressive as the near-term product opportunities are, in our view, it is the early-stage compounds that may propel The Medicines Company to become a global leader in the $40B global cholesterol market. One of the greatest strengths of CEO Clive Meanwell and the Medicines Company team is their ability to identify external product candidates at various stages of development and successfully drive them through the clinical trial process and on to the market. The team’s ability to resurrect once-promising compounds and create significant value is evidenced by upcoming new product approvals. Meanwell’s clinical and regulatory (and marketing) experience with Angiomax is an excellent example; he has laid the groundwork for the company’s continued success in making acquisitions and applying company expertise with that product.

TLSR: What is your take on a firm like Coronado Biosciences (CNDO:OTCBB), which has a product nearing late-stage clinical trials in several areas: multiple sclerosis, diabetes, arthritis, psoriasis. Is there an advantage or disadvantage to having so many irons in the fire at once?

JM: You are right; Coronado has several small, investigator-sponsored trials underway or about to start with TSO (Trichuris suis ova; CNDO-201) for the treatment of several major autoimmune conditions (irritable bowel syndrome, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, autism, type 2 diabetes).

However, investors are clearly focused on the phase 2 trial called TRUST-I, which is a binary event and very important. The stock will likely reflect the success or failure of TSO in general based on this data event. TRUST-I is the largest well-designed clinical trial with Coronado’s lead compound to date.

Top-line results from the TRUST-I trial of TSO in patients with Crohn’s disease will be released in Q4/13. Based upon the timing of the completion of enrollment announced by the company (July 1), by our calculation, the last patient off-drug will occur by approximately Oct. 1 (a 12-week treatment period). With data collection and analysis, we believe results will be made public by mid-November, approximately.

The TRUST-I readout will likely be interpreted by the stock market as a classic biotech binary event—good or bad, win or lose, black or white. In many instances, in addition to being phase 2 “proof-of-concept data,” there is often a “gray” area with mixed results. But, for the most part, we assume the market will ascribe a “yay” or “nay” to the results, and, depending on the outcome, take Coronado shares to either extreme.

We like the risk/reward for Coronado as we approach the readout of TRUST-I. That being said, we have also advised subscribers to the Medical Stock Technology newsletter to expect a significant price move and to look at using risk-mitigation strategies.

TLSR: John, thanks for your time.

JM: You are welcome.

John McCamant is the editor of the Medical Technology Stock Letter, a leading investment newsletter. McCamant has spent 25 years on the frontlines of biotechnology investing. He has established an extensive network that includes contacts throughout the investment banking and venture capital communities. His expertise in biotechnology investments is a subject of media interest. He is frequently consulted and quoted by The Washington Post, Reuters, Bloomberg, CBS and Marketwatch. His website is bioinvest.com.

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Article by Investazor.com

In May, this year, Tesla Motors got a boost of power and the price of its stocks started to rise at an alert pace. In less than 5 months the stocks gained 230%. Today it has reached another high at 189.69, getting one step closer to reaching 200$ per share.

The engine that pushed the price that far from the April levels gives now some bad signals. The trend continued to rise fast, but the volumes started to drop. Dropping volumes on a move usually means that the move might turn around in the near future. Another signal would be the negative divergence that appeared on the 28 days RSI.

Chart: TSLA, Daily

We are expecting the price to keep on rising, targeting 200$ per share or even slightly above. This growth could be followed by a drop back to 160$ per share, an ex-resistance.  The fall could occur right before or during the earning reports period.

Tesla Motors is expected to report an estimated earnings of 0.12$ per share. If it will surprise the markets like it did in the second quarter, than our setup could be invalidated and the price might break 200 level. On the other hand not meeting these expectations we might see a steeper drop.

The post Does Tesla’s Engine Still Going? appeared first on investazor.com.

Article by Investazor.com

First of all, Greece is now feeling the peace before the storm as in November is going to be decided if it needs an additional bailout from the European countries. Since this would be the third substantial loan that it needs, the minister of finance Evangelos Venizelos is trying to persuade the International Monetary Fund and the European Union that Greece may not need another bailout because is capable to sustain its expenditure. The healthiest support would be the reintegration in the bond market by next year as it is so vital to the ongoing operation of the public and private sector. The European countries do not need to be burdened anymore since they have already bore costs of about 240 billion euros with Greece.

Secondly, it is worth to pay attention to another worrying aspect of the European zone which is Cyprus. The country is currently bearing the effects of the austerity measures which strongly affects the unemployment rate that increases with 40%. Since the dramatic episode of March when Cypriots’ bank accounts were required to contribute to help fund a restructuring of the financial sector, austerity measures have been implemented and the effects have appeared immediately. The forecast for 2014 is dark, assuming a 13% shrinking of the economy.

Thirdlt, the European banking system is currently redesigning. Thus, the European Banking Authority (EBA) decided:

– To modify the shortage for the top 42 banks in the European Union (following to be applied for all bank in the E.U.) and cut it by 29.1 billion euros, compared with six months ago.

– The core capital buffer that banks must hold increased, consisting of at least 7 percent of their assets on a risk-weighted basis.

– Separate reserves of cash and government debt by 2019.

– A leverage ratio set at 3 percent from 2018 (banks are required to hold capital of at least 3% of their total non risk-weighted assets).

These regulations are part of the new global Basel III.

The post Three Aspects You Should Know about the Euro Zone appeared first on investazor.com.