Asian Stocks Mixed Amid Worries on Syria

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Major Asian stocks ended the session mixed on Wednesday, following the four-day gaining streak as investors continue to worry over possible military strike in Syria and the region’s upbeat macroeconomic data.

The US draft resolution was supported by both Democratic and Republican leaders of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee approving military action in Syria. However, the action still requires approval by Congress, which is expected to return to session on September 9.

Asian Stocks – Japan Gains

During Japan’s session, stocks were seen climbing on Wednesday as the Japanese Nikkei 225 rose 0.54% higher to 14,053.87 points, while the Tokyo broader Topix index advanced 0.62% to 1,156.30 points.

Losses were seen during the session despite the reported upbeat data, including the Business Activity Index posted by Markit which showed that the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 50.6 points in July to 51.2 points in August.

“Japan’s service sector continued its ten-month run of expansion in August, with a slight acceleration in the rate of growth, indicating July’s weak performance was only a minor lull.,” Claudia Tillbrooke, economist at Markit, stated in the release. “The modest recovery of growth evident in the service sector was complemented by the manufacturing industry data, as goods producers recorded the fastest rise in output since February 2011. As a result, the Composite Output Index rose from July’s reading of 50.7 to a level of 51.9 in August,” the Markit report said.

Tokyo is competing with Madrid and Istanbul to host the 2020 Summer Olympics, as investors waits for the final decision to be announced by September 7. The event is expected to boost the country’s construction sector.

The Japanese yen was seen slightly stronger throughout the session; the yen was seen 0.15% lower at ¥99.47 at the time of writing.

Asian Stocks- China Trades Mixed

Stocks were seen trading mixed during the China session, as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.29% lower at 22,330 points and the mainland Shanghai gained 0.21% to 2,127.62 points.

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Spain PMI climbs to 50.4 in August

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Spain’s final services PMI rose from 48.5 in the previous month to 50.4 in August, exceeding analysts’ forecast of 49.5 and putting an end to the services sector’s two-year tightening, according to the Markit Economics data. The positive final services PMI reports were assisted by the debt crises dragging Spain’s economy for more than two years.

Spain PMI – Final Manufacturing PMI

Apart from the positive final manufacturing PMI reports indicating a growth in Spain’s industry sector, the report also shows the sector rose above the 50 threshold to 51.1, up from 49.8 from the previous month.

“The news from the Spanish manufacturing sector improved again in August, with PMI data highlighting a first rise in output for 28 months. As has been the case in recent months, exports were the key source of positive momentum as growth quickened sharply. Firms appear still to doubt the sustainability of the current improvements, however, opting to raise output only modestly and often using existing stocks to meet new order requirements”, Andrew Harker, economist at Markit, stated in the report.

Spain’s GDP

Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.1% in the second quarter as analysts predicted, after a 0.5% drop in the first quarter, reports from the National Institute of Statistics confirmed.

Annually, the gross domestic product contracted 1.7%, down from 2.0% in the previous quarter. The fall was caused by the weak domestic demand. Analysts are predicting the country’s economy could get hit be recession again this year due to the fall in consumer and investment spending and high unemployment figures.

The Spanish government’s finance is expected to go under more pressure due to the fall in the economic output. The government’s gross debt is predicted to reach 101% of GDP by 2014 after an estimated government debt ratio of 88.4% of GDP in 2012, according to forecasts from the European Commission (EC).

 

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Peruvian Precious Metals Repeating a Winning Formula

Source: J. Alec Gimurtu of The Gold Report

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/peruvian-precious-metals-repeating-a-winning-formula

The management team that took Prodigy Gold from a $25 million market cap junior to a $340 million buyout in less than three years is back with a new company that it believes is tailor made for applying its formula for success. In this interview with The Gold Report, CEO Brian Maher and VP of Corporate Development Kimberly Ann discuss their latest project, how they are “managing through change” and what differentiates them in an industry of over-promoting and under-delivering juniors. Clear communication is part of the formula, but there is more than talk when it comes to advancing a great project in South America’s largest gold producing region.

Management Q&a: view from the top

The Gold Report: Can you give us a summary of the opportunity at Peruvian Precious Metals Corp. (PPX:TSX.V; PPX:BVL)?

Brian Maher: Peruvian Precious Metals is essentially a brand new company. The new management—Kimberly, CFO Tony Wood, and I—took over earlier this year. We were drawn to this company because of the outstanding project located in the northern Peru copper-gold belt. It’s called Igor and it is located in an area that has some of the largest gold mines in the world. The project includes a brand new discovery on what we call the Callanquitas structure with over 700,000 ounces (700 Koz) gold equivalent in the NI 43-101 Inferred category.

But what really drew us to this project was the ability for it to be fast tracked to production. The Callanquitas structure is high grade, sub-vertical and topographically well positioned such that it could potentially be developed as a low-cost underground mining operation. The project mirrors where our last company, Prodigy Gold, was when we took over—two and a half years before it was bought out. We feel that our experience at Prodigy is directly applicable to making this project as successful as Prodigy’s flagship project, Magino. We look forward to rapidly moving from drilling, through a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) to a prefeasibility study (PFS). That is a formula that builds shareholder value quickly.

TGR: Given that background, what features set Peruvian Precious Metals and this project apart from other junior miners?

BM: The first point is the project itself. Peruvian’s flagship Igor project has an ideal location with infrastructure in place ready for development. The deposit is high grade and potentially low cost to mine. The second point is management. Our team is very experienced in developing similar projects, having successfully brought a company from the exploration stage through development and sale to a major gold company. The third standout feature of Peruvian Precious Metals is our strong support from shareholders and the board of directors. The board has unrivaled experience not only in the mining industry, but with operations in Peru.

 

 

 

 

Igor Location Map Showing Major Nearby Gold Producers in Peru

 

TGR: You mentioned Prodigy’s history and how you’re trying to repeat that success. Can you give us a little background on how you got involved in Prodigy and what was the situation that enabled you to take that to the next level?

BM: For a number of years, I was the vice president of exploration with the predecessor company of Prodigy called Kodiak Exploration. The board asked me to take over running the company. Kimberly joined me to help with the marketing and business development. We identified an asset in northern Ontario called the Magino mine. Through a merger with the owner of that project, we formed Prodigy Gold. In a 26-month period we took Prodigy from a 1.6 million ounce (1.6 Moz) resource to a more than 6 Moz resource and developed a PEA that established the economic viability of the project. Prodigy’s share price went from $0.19 to over $1. The market capitalization went from $25 million ($25M) to $340M when Prodigy was bought by Argonaut Gold. We are building on the success of that formula to advance this project and create wealth to the shareholders.

TGR: What were the challenges you faced at Prodigy and do you have a similar set of challenges with Peruvian Precious Metals?

Kimberly Ann: At Prodigy, one of the challenges was the former CEO promoted one of the projects beyond what could be delivered. When we came onboard, there was no flagship property and the company had lost focus. Yet the promotion had talked the stock from $0.55 to over $5. The company did a financing for $55M, but the share price came down to below $0.45 when the resource estimate came in at approximately 300 Koz. That was far away from the story of several million ounces that had been the company line. As a management team, we inherited a disappointed board, disappointed shareholders and disappointed employees.

We recognized that Prodigy needed a flagship property to succeed. When we closed the transaction to buy Magino, we chose to reorient the company with a new direction. We spent two years on the road building trust in the management team and in the company vision.

It took us a year to get analyst coverage. Eventually, we had eight analysts covering the company. That took a commitment, getting them out to the project, having them come back every few months and showing them how management was delivering on benchmarks. Engaging the analysts wasn’t about asking for money; it was about demonstrating a track record of setting and achieving benchmarks. Having a track record of doing what we say we’re going to do is unique in the junior mining industry. Over-promoting is not in anybody’s long-term interest. We stick to the facts.

TGR: Peruvian has the project, management and board in place—so what is the concrete next step? What are your goals and how are investors going to know that you are achieving them?

KA: Our immediate goals are to capitalize the company and to meet with long-term shareholders to clearly communicate our new vision. For instance, by the time this interview is released, we will be in Colombia to meet with long-term shareholders. We’re strengthening long-term relationships that have been through a lot of corporate changes and we are meeting with new shareholders to communicate our excitement about advancing this project. We plan on drilling 6,000 meters in 2013 and soon thereafter updating our resource. Those efforts will give us some clear benchmarks of success on the ground.

TGR: When will results be announced?

BM: The goal is to resume drilling no later than this October. Six thousand meters can be drilled fairly quickly. We’d like to have that resource update done by the end of this year but realistically it will probably be in Q1/14. That resource estimate will be the basis for the PEA. Releasing a PEA in 2014 is critical because it will differentiate the company by establishing the economic parameters of this resource.

There are hundreds of companies with resources out there: copper, diamonds, any mineral commodity. But is it economic? Can you extract that material and make a profit? The PEA establishes the baseline economics of a project; it allows analysts and investors to come up with a net asset value for the company and to judge that in terms of the share structure. A PEA shows a roadmap of where the company is going. The next steps are to complete the drilling, update the resource and release a PEA. Those are the steps that will give everybody a chance to look at the value of the company. We’ve already done back-of-the-envelope calculations on what those numbers could look like, and that’s what really attracted this management team to that project. We think we will have a robust PEA that will demonstrate strong economics.

TGR: In this market, the big question is: How much financing is it going to take you to get the PEA out? How much additional financing beyond the cash you have in the bank now and the recently announced financing?

BM: The first order of business for our new management team was to get our financial house in order from the previous management. We’ve done that. We reduced our burn rate to a very low $90,000 a month for all of our Peruvian operation.

TGR: Does that include any exploration expenditures?

BM: That includes keeping the camp open, keeping the people on the ground mapping, sampling and preparing for drilling. So, yes, it includes some exploration. It lets us continue to make progress but it is also a burn rate that is very sustainable. We recently announced a $1.5M financing. When completed, that money will be used to start drilling. Because of the nature of the drilling program we designed—it’s essentially an infill program with short stepout holes to increase the resource—it has a high probability of producing excellent news flow, which will verify and validate our resource. With that news flow, we anticipate a recovery in share price, and if we do need additional money by the end of the year, say $1M or $2M, we should be able to raise a much more favorable share price level and minimize possible dilution. In a nutshell, we can get to a PEA with only modest amounts of additional funding.

TGR: You mentioned that Peruvian Precious Metals, at least from a management point of view, could be called a “turnaround.” What is it like to manage a turnaround situation?

BM: It’s the same in any business environment, whether you are talking the junior mining segment or you are trying to get Chrysler back on track. The first thing is to straighten out the problems inherited from past management. That can be very challenging. There are issues with creating corporate culture, honoring past obligations that you might not agree with, effectively managing contactors and simply paying the bills. In this case, we also had to reduce staff. If everyone recognizes that the key asset of our company is a great project, a project that will likely become a mine, then we can build the company around that unified vision. Once that is in place, shareholders gain confidence, employees gain confidence and our own confidence is reinforced. While the overall equity marketplace has made the whole process a little more difficult, the reality is we are moving forward and looking toward doing more work on the ground.

TGR: You seem to have a very strategic approach to drilling. Would you explain how you plan to approach the next round?

BM: We have been very deliberate and very systematic in drilling the existing resources.

 

 

 

 

Callanquitas Structure—Long Section

 

Drill hole spacing is 50 to 75 meters, so it is very tightly drilled. Because of that, we have a great deal of confidence in the continuity of mineralization. Beyond that, we have the ability to step away from the main drill areas to potentially quickly add ounces. To date, we have encountered some very high-grade intercepts and some very distinct raking ore chutes. When we plan the next round of drilling, we aren’t moving hundreds of meters away from existing resource. We are stepping out incrementally—50 to 75 meters—and as a consequence it should be straight forward for us to quickly add ounces to our resource.

TGR: Let’s discuss the exit strategy. Are you going from PEA to PFS to a bankable feasibility study to potentially production? Or are you going to look to combine with one of the larger companies already well established in Peru? How are you positioning the company to address the uncertainty of the exit strategy?

BM: Again, we reference the strategy we used at Prodigy, and it’s really quite simple: We will continue to advance the project through the PEA to a full feasibility study and as we go through each one of those steps we will continue to grow the company to support our ability to put it into production ourselves. Raising money with each of these steps becomes easier because the risk decreases.

This method gives us all options for generating shareholder value. If the best option for the shareholders is to build a mine and operate it ourselves, then so be it. Because that outcome is a possibility, we will make sure that we’ve gone through the proper steps to get there. If in the process of taking away risk from the project by taking it through feasibility another mining company comes up and says, “We really like you guys, we’re going to pay you a 60% premium to your share price to acquire this asset,” then that may be the most appropriate path for our shareholders. But if we don’t target production, we don’t give ourselves that flexibility. As soon as we put that flag out that says “Developed Resource For Sale,” we have limited our ability to grow value.

TGR: Let’s wrap it up with a summary of the high points of investors should know about Peruvian Precious Metals.

BM: It goes back to the three points: Igor is a top quality project with plenty of blue-sky potential in a great geopolitical jurisdiction that’s ready to move forward. Peruvian Precious Metals has a management team with successful background experience, including financial, corporate, marketing and mine operations. Lastly, we have a strong board with experience in mine development and operations in Peru that can support us and give us guidance. When you have all three of those working together, you have the building blocks for a great company.

TGR: We look forward to watching you advance this project.

BM: Thanks for the chance to get the message out.

Brian Maher, president, CEO and director of Peruvian Precious Metals Corp., is an economic geologist with over 34 years of experience in the international mining and exploration industry. Most recently, he was the president, CEO and director of Prodigy Gold Inc. He received a Bachelor of Arts degree in geology from California State University, Chico and a Master of Science degree in economic geology from Colorado State University. After working for ASARCO and as a consultant, Maher joined Hochschild Mining Plc in 2005, where he headed its North American exploration program.

Kimberly Ann, Peruvian Precious Metals Corp.’s vice president of corporate development, is a corporate development and communications specialist with over 20 years of marketing experience in branding, investor relations and finance. In the past three years, Ann has assisted in raising over $90M in equity financing and directed three major junior mining rebranding projects. While at Prodigy Gold, Ann was responsible for all aspects of the company’s corporate communication program, facilitating equity financings, generating analyst coverage, participating in key aspects of corporate M&A activities and generating widespread recognition of the company’s successful transition from explorer to mine developer. Ann attended the University of Washington, majoring in business and marketing.

DISCLOSURE:

1) J. Alec Gimurtu conducted this interview for The Gold Report and provides services to The Gold Report as an independent contractor. He or his family own shares of the company mentioned in this interview: None.

2) Peruvian Precious Metals Corp. paid The Gold Report to conduct, produce and distribute the interview.

3) Peruvian Precious Metals Corp. had final approval of the content and is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Opinions expressed are the opinions of Peruvian Precious Metals Corp. and not Streetwise Reports or The Gold Report or its officers.

4) The interview does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer.

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Strong Cash Flow, Increasing Dividends Make This Old Economy Stock Attractive

By Profit Confidential

Increasing Dividends Make This Old Economy Stock AttractiveBlue chips across the board have been taking a break, along with the rest of the stock market. But in my mind, their leadership remains intact, and so does the performance of the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

This index recently broke below its 50-day simple moving average (MA), but this is very normal and not a trendsetting event. Many component stocks have been on fire all year and are due for a sustained period of retrenchment.

One component company that I continue to like is Union Pacific Corporation (UNP). The railroad sector is old economy, but it’s still a solid gauge on domestic economic activity. Plus, Union Pacific is a solidly profitable company that provides growing dividends to shareholders. The stock is currently yielding 2.1%.

Perusing the company’s regulatory filings, what stands out is Union Pacific’s strong financial recovery from 2009, when business operations experienced a pronounced downturn. Of course, we’re dealing with a very mature blue chip company, so financial growth isn’t like a small-cap technology stock. But the company really did turn its financial metrics around in a diligent manner, and the results are evidenced in its share price performance.

Union Pacific Corporation Chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Union Pacific’s operating revenues dropped significantly from $18.0 billion in 2008 to $14.1 billion in 2009. But the recovery was swift, as 2010’s operating revenues came back up to $17.0 billion, followed by $19.6 billion in 2011 and $20.9 billion last year.

Notable in the company’s economic recovery was its earnings and dividend payments to shareholders.

Earnings in 2009 fell to $1.89 billion from $2.3 billion in 2008. They recovered commensurately with revenues to $2.8 billion in 2010, $3.3 billion in 2011, and $3.9 billion in 2012.

Dividends per share also accelerated, even through the 2009 down year, while the company’s debt-to-capital ratio fell consistently since 2009 and return on average shareholders’ equity improved substantially.

It’s this track record of financial success and recovery from the significant downturn that stands out as a major selling feature for Union Pacific. Every company experiences its own business cycle, and a diligent management team along with increased dividends kept investors interested in this stock.

The year 2012 was a record operating performance year for Union Pacific, and even if there is no full-year volume growth this year, company management still expects 2013 earnings to exceed those of 2012. From my perspective, these expectations are worth owning.

Railroad stocks aren’t for everyone, but as part of a long-term equity portfolio of blue chips, I think a railroad company should be included.

A stock like Union Pacific is the kind of enterprise that you watch and keep an eye on, perhaps on a monthly basis, looking for opportune times to consider new positions. I’m not an advocate of buying this market currently—it’s already gone up and certainty regarding monetary policy is in flux. (See “Why Corporate Earnings Are Taking a Back Seat to the Fed.”

Union Pacific recently increased its dividend again by 14.5%, or $0.10 per share, to $0.79 quarterly. Strong cash flows and other solid financial metrics continue to make this company an attractive security for long-term portfolios.

Article by profitconfidential.com

Why I Like Microsoft’s Proposed Acquisition of Nokia’s Cell Phone Business

By Profit Confidential

Microsoft’s Proposed Acquisition of Nokia’s Cell Phone BusinessMicrosoft Corporation (NASDAQ/MSFT) is finally doing something that I have been calling for over the past several years. With CEO Steve Ballmer set to leave the company (read “Why Microsoft May Finally be Set to Turn its Fortune Around”), the former Wall Street favorite is making plans to aggressively expand its presence in the growing mobility market. How? Through its proposed acquisition of the cell phone business Nokia Corporation (NYSE/NOK), a deal valued at up to $7.2 billion, in an effort to expand in a sector dominated by Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL) and Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.

The deal that sees Microsoft buying the mobile unit, including the “Lumia” line running on a “Windows” platform, makes perfect sense for a company that is falling behind in the mobile race.

For Nokia, the deal also makes sense, as the company probably realized it was going to be a tough upward battle against Apple, Samsung, and a host of other Chinese smartphone makers. Essentially, Nokia made a conscious decision to exit before it was lights out.

As far as Microsoft, the purchase of Nokia’s mobile business also makes a lot of sense, as Microsoft struggles to advance its presence in the mobile space while facing declining demand for its Windows platform on personal computers (PCs) and laptops.

There was really no other choice for Microsoft, and given the company has $76.0 billion in cash, the price (or gamble) is worth it. But again, there’s absolutely no guarantee the strategy will pan out.

The Lumia smartphones had good reviews, but failed to crack the lock on the smartphone market placed by Apple in the United States and Samsung worldwide. Just look at BlackBerry Limited (NASDAQ/BBRY) and its recent decision to put out the “For Sale” sign.

Microsoft, unlike Nokia, has the financial clout to drive the Lumia Windows phone, but whether it can fare better is still debatable. The reality is that unless Microsoft comes out with a better smartphone than its rivals, it will likely be more of the same as it tries to expand its current three-percent market share.

My opinion is that while it will be very difficult for Microsoft to break into this market, it’s well worth the gamble, as the mobility sector is the place where the growth will continue to be on the horizon.

Article by profitconfidential.com

Mideast Oil Loses Some of its Power

By OilPrice.com

On his way back from the Yalta conference in February 1945 where US President Franklin D. Roosevelt met with Great Britain’s Winston Churchill and the Soviet Union’s Stalin, the American president made an unscheduled stop in Egypt where he met with Saudi Arabia’s King Abdel Aziz ibn Saud aboard the USS Quincy, in the Suez Canal’s Great Bitter Lake. The basis of the meeting was to ensure that Americans would have an uninterrupted supply of oil.

Oil in fact was the only thing that these two very different men had in common. Oil was the common thread binding Arabs and Americans. The Arabs produced it in large quantities and the Americans consumed it in large quantities.

Over the past several decades US presidents and Western European leaders had to worry about how any policy decision taken by them would affect the cost of gas at the pump, and thus ultimately, affect their own careers. As one can easily imagine, no politician in the world would want to be blamed for having been the cause of raised prices at the pump.

With that in mind, policy makers in the Western Hemisphere pussyfooted around the thorny issue of how to handle the Middle East, careful not to upset too much the Arabs and in the process trigger the alarm that would punish the West with higher oil prices. As has happened in 1973 during the October War between Israel and its Arab neighbors when the oil producing countries slapped an oil embargo on the West.

And it is with that in mind – the fear of pushing the Arab oil producing nations to enact upon their threats – that the West dealt with the Middle East all those years. That, and or course the pro-Israel lobby, who although lacking oil were still able to achieve their political objectives.

But as we have just seen by the latest crisis revolving around the issue of Syria and the alleged use of chemical weapons by the regime, and the threats of war and of punitive actions taken by the United States and its allies, not even once during the deliberations of whether to attack or not to attack Syria was the issue of how an escalation of violence would affect the oil markets.

Not once was any mention made to the dangers of Iran becoming involved in the conflict and how that would impact the oil route out of the Gulf in the event that it was closed down by fighting or purposely by the Iranians by attacking the strategic Straits of Hormuz.

There are several reasons for this. First, the US is becoming less dependent on Arab oil and therefor closing Hormuz will not affect the Americans as much as it would have in the past.

Iran, who depends on its own oil going and coming through the Straits can ill afford to close down Hormuz as Iranian oil needs to transit through the Straits to be refined in India and then brought back for consumption, passing through the Straits on the way there and back.

This is indeed a turning point in US-Mideast policy. Henceforth the US will feel less threatened by the oil weapon as it has in the past.

The long-term outcome of this tectonic shift in what until now has been the keystone of any major US policy decision should, in principal at least, give Washington and its allies greater bargaining power and leeway in dealing with the region.

For the moment however the Obama administration has yet to grasp the full potential and power this change offers.

For now at least the Arab world still has some influence in Washington and Brussels. They should utilize this influence to start sorting out their home-grown problems before it becomes too late.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Mideast-Oil-Loses-Some-of-its-Power.html

By. Claude Salhani of Oilprice.com

 

Why Investors Are Fleeing Both the Bond and Stock Markets

By Profit Confidential

bond marketLate last year, the concept of the “Great Rotation” became popular. The idea behind the Great Rotation was simple: the theory was that once the bond prices started to decline, investors would take their money out of bonds and put them into the equity markets.

The logic behind the Great Rotation made sense. When one asset class becomes too risky, the bond market in this case, investors usually run towards other assets. But the Great Rotation isn’t happening?

Yes, the bond market has certainly come down from its peak. If we look at the 30-year U.S. bonds as an indicator of the bond market, the yields on those bonds are up roughly 24% since the beginning of the year. The 10-year U.S. notes are in a similar situation, if not worse. It’s the biggest bloodbath for the bond market we’ve seen in years.

But investors are not fleeing the bond market for the equity markets. In fact, we are seeing the opposite. Investors are leaving both the bond market and equity market.

The chart below illustrates the inflows/outflows from U.S. long-term bonds and stock mutual funds.

Long Term Mutual Funds Chart

While the chart above shows data from January to June of this year, in July, if you add the weekly outflow from the bonds mutual funds, they were upwards of $16.0 billion. In August, for the three weeks ended August 21, the long-term bonds mutual funds had an outflow of a little more than $17.0 billion. (Source: Investment Company Institute, August 29, 2013.)

If investors are not going to the equity markets as they run away from the bond market, where are they parking their money? Turns out they are seeking safety, moving to the sidelines.

Money market funds assets are increasing in value. According to the Investment Company Institute, assets of all money market funds hit $2.64 trillion on August 28, 2013. (Source: Investment Company Institute, August 29, 2013.)

With investors moving to the sidelines, it suggests they are uncertain about the direction of equities and are waiting to see how the situation plays out. Stock market investors should pay close attention to this outflow of capital. It’s Economics 101: markets do not rise when capital flows out of the markets.

Michael’s Personal Notes:

After the financial crisis, companies in the U.S. economy were able to show robust growth in their corporate earnings; they were able to sell their products and services to where the demand was outside the U.S., to the global economy.

Unfortunately, the tides are turning. The global economy is showing signs of weakness. Pick up a map, and point a finger to any general region of the global economy; chances are that countries there are struggling with demand, and they are revising their growth rates downward.

Companies in the U.S. economy are very reliant on what happens in the global economy. Consider this: in 2012, companies on the S&P 500 that provided figures about global sales reported that 46.6% of all their sales came from outside the U.S. economy. (Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, August 2013.) Yes, nearly half of the sales these companies generate come from the global economy.

It doesn’t take much to see the global economy is slowing, not growing…

Take a look at the European Union—one of the biggest economic hubs worldwide. New passenger car registrations in the region were down 6.6% in the first six months of this year compared to the same period a year ago. (Source: European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, July 16, 2013.) Europe is in trouble; American companies will have trouble growing their corporate earnings in that region.

The Chinese economy, the second-biggest economic hub in the global economy, is also slowing. A significant number of U.S. companies do business there. For 2013, the Chinese economy is on track to grow at its slowest pace in years, as problems persist in China, including risks such as the shadow banking sector, skyrocketing home prices, and slowing exports.

In the second quarter, we witnessed first-hand how fragile U.S. corporate earnings were. If we take out the financial companies from the S&P 500, the corporate earnings growth rate for the second quarter of 2013 was borderline negative.

With the global economy on the fringes, it will be even more difficult for companies to boost corporate earnings in the third quarter. Looks like the stock market itself is finally coming to that realization.

What He Said:

“I personally expect the next couple of years to be terrible for U.S. housing sales, foreclosures, and the construction market. These events will dampen the U.S. economic picture significantly in the months ahead, leading to the recession I am predicting for the U.S. economy later this year.” Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, August 23, 2007. Michael was one of the first to predict a U.S. recession, long before Wall Street analysts and economists even thought it a possibility.

Article by profitconfidential.com

Companies in U.S. Economy Worried About Corporate Earnings

By Profit Confidential

After the financial crisis, companies in the U.S. economy were able to show robust growth in their corporate earnings; they were able to sell their products and services to where the demand was outside the U.S., to the global economy.

Unfortunately, the tides are turning. The global economy is showing signs of weakness. Pick up a map, and point a finger to any general region of the global economy; chances are that countries there are struggling with demand, and they are revising their growth rates downward.

Companies in the U.S. economy are very reliant on what happens in the global economy. Consider this: in 2012, companies on the S&P 500 that provided figures about global sales reported that 46.6% of all their sales came from outside the U.S. economy. (Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, August 2013.) Yes, nearly half of the sales these companies generate come from the global economy.

It doesn’t take much to see the global economy is slowing, not growing…

Take a look at the European Union—one of the biggest economic hubs worldwide. New passenger car registrations in the region were down 6.6% in the first six months of this year compared to the same period a year ago. (Source: European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, July 16, 2013.) Europe is in trouble; American companies will have trouble growing their corporate earnings in that region.

The Chinese economy, the second-biggest economic hub in the global economy, is also slowing. A significant number of U.S. companies do business there. For 2013, the Chinese economy is on track to grow at its slowest pace in years, as problems persist in China, including risks such as the shadow banking sector, skyrocketing home prices, and slowing exports.

In the second quarter, we witnessed first-hand how fragile U.S. corporate earnings were. If we take out the financial companies from the S&P 500, the corporate earnings growth rate for the second quarter of 2013 was borderline negative.

With the global economy on the fringes, it will be even more difficult for companies to boost corporate earnings in the third quarter. Looks like the stock market itself is finally coming to that realization.

What He Said:

“I personally expect the next couple of years to be terrible for U.S. housing sales, foreclosures, and the construction market. These events will dampen the U.S. economic picture significantly in the months ahead, leading to the recession I am predicting for the U.S. economy later this year.” Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, August 23, 2007. Michael was one of the first to predict a U.S. recession, long before Wall Street analysts and economists even thought it a possibility.

Article by profitconfidential.com

My Favorite Bakken Oil Play

By Profit Confidential

Bakken Oil PlayFinancial metrics are improving significantly for oil stocks, and the commodity’s prices are a combination of speculative fervor mixed with geopolitical events. At $110.00 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, drill bit profitability has improved significantly.

I’ve always been an advocate of having one large, integrated oil and gas company (or limited partnership) in a long-term equity market portfolio. There are good dividends to be had and solid prospects for long-term capital appreciation.

But the marketplace is dealing with declining production among the biggest companies, and this is why smaller, domestic producers are now doing much better on the stock market. As is always the case, oil production growth must be combined with spot price growth. When the two are moving commensurately, there’s good money to be made.

As I’ve mentioned a number of times in this column, Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. (KOG) is a popular Bakken oil play that’s highly liquid and is an institutional favorite. This company boasts excellent potential going forward. However, Kodiak is a stock with a lot of high expectations priced into its share price. (See “My Two Favorite Picks in the Speculative Oil & Gas Sector.”)

One company that I think speculative resource investors should now be putting on their radar is Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG), which is another junior oil and natural gas producer that operates in Montana and North Dakota.

Northern has been going down steadily on the stock market, as the company has had difficulty growing its production due to infrastructure issues. Specifically, company management cited adverse weather and extended road restrictions as hampering well completions in the second quarter.

Every energy company experiences infrastructure issues, and with this stock trending steadily lower, a very attractive entry point should soon present itself. Like I say, resource stocks trade on production growth and rising spot prices. If Northern can work through its current delays in well completions (which management says it will), then the stock could offer real value for a Bakken oil play.

Recently, Northern lowered its 2013 full-year expectations to 36 net well completions with 4.3 million total barrels of oil equivalent (boe) production.

Total oil production in the second quarter of 2013 grew only one percent to 895,000 barrels, but natural gas and other liquids rose significantly to 579,346 cubic feet for a gain of 51%.

The company’s total revenues for the second quarter of 2013 fell to $96.2 million, down from $119.2 million. Earnings were $25.0 million, compared to $43.6 million in the second quarter of 2012. Diluted earnings per common share were $0.39 compared to $0.70.

But like any business, a quarter or two of stumbling can create an opportune time for investors to consider new positions. I think Northern Oil is worth putting on your watch list right now. However, I’d wait until third-quarter financial and production results are announced—or, more specifically, for what management says regarding well completions—before taking any action.

The oil and gas business is alive and well, particularly among smaller companies. It is a good time to be in this industry.

Article by profitconfidential.com

Creating the Ultimate Profitable and Diverse Portfolio

By Profit Confidential

Creating the Ultimate Profitable and Diverse PortfolioI was having dinner with a friend the other day and the discussion moved to the concept of risk and reward.

My friend Sam couldn’t understand why he was underperforming the S&P 500 despite owning shares like The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE/PG), General Electric Company (NYSE/GE), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE/WFC), and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ/INTC).

My immediate response was that his portfolio lacked growth stocks, instead focusing on large-cap dividend paying stocks. These are excellent long-term companies, but for that added push in returns, you need to look at small-cap stocks and the risk and reward growth opportunities.

Sam said he added Intel for growth. Of course, my response was that Intel was dead money at this time and is not the growth stock it used to be prior to the drive in the mobility space that it missed. I suggested I would be adding tech plays that focused on the mobility market, as that is where the money will likely be made over the next few years as the sector blossoms.

So I told Sam to add some NASDAQ 100 stocks for some added risk and reward growth, along with some small-cap stocks to help drive an otherwise boring portfolio.

Diversification and risk and reward are key to a good portfolio, regardless of the market conditions. I don’t really like mining stocks or gold, but you should have some nonetheless, especially now with the threat of the war intensifying in Syria.

Sectors like the housing market and the big banks have made the easy money, so you need to be selective and search for market opportunities in areas that can return some above-average risk and reward gains.

The Internet and mobile spaces are the two top areas for risk and reward growth now and, in my view, going forward. The rapid rate of development in these spaces is unbelievable and will likely continue.

Sam asked me about Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ/TSLA) and its glorious rise on the chart, questioning whether he should buy in. (Read “Consider This Surging Automotive Company.”) I like CEO Elon Musk’s ambition and his goals, but I just can’t get around the valuation assigned to the stock that’s trading at 97X its 2014 earnings per share (EPS). In the auto sector, I would probably stick with market leader Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (NYSE/HMC), or General Motors Company (NYSE/GM) if you want to buy American and see growth in China.

I think Sam understood the concept of risk and reward and the need for some growth. I also offered up the need to have some capital in foreign markets for that added risk and reward. Chinese small-cap stocks have been showing some strong momentum on the charts and Europe is looking better.

Article by profitconfidential.com