Did You See This Morning’s Jobs Report; the Worst So Far of the Year?

By Profit Confidential

Mornings Jobs ReportInstead of the employment picture getting better in this country, it’s getting worse!

In today’s jobs report, we’re told 169,000 jobs were added in the U.S. jobs market in August. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 6, 2013.) Aside from the fact we need a minimum of 200,000 jobs a month to see a substantial change in the U.S. jobs market, the details in this morning’s report are particularly weak and concerning.

Actually, let’s start with the previous month’s downward revision in employment. The revised numbers that came out this morning show the U.S. economy added only 104,000 new jobs in July, not the 162,000 we were originally told were created in that month.

Moving to August, this morning’s jobs market report shows the only growth in jobs is in the low-wage-paying sectors. Add up all the new retail, health care, business services, and hospitality jobs, and 71% of all jobs created in August were in the low-paying sectors!

The underemployment rate, which includes those people who have given up looking for work or who have part-time jobs because they can’t get full-time jobs, still sits near 14%! (The politicians will never talk about the underemployment rate—what economists like me consider the real employment rate—because this number shows the jobs market is not improving.)

So what type of growth did we see in August in jobs in the manufacturing, construction, and other sectors that pay a higher salary? Sadly, jobs growth in those sectors was dismal. The manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy only created 19,000 jobs in August—after a decline of 10,000 in July! Sectors like construction, mining and logging, transportation and warehousing, and financial activities showed no change in jobs growth!

To the optimists, let’s give you the benefit of the doubt and say this month’s jobs market report was a “blip” in growth. Even if we do put it aside and look at the bigger picture, the long-term trend in the jobs market is cruel!

Just look at the chart below that we’ve created exclusively for our Profit Confidential readers. The chart shows the growth rates in different sectors of the jobs market from June 2009 to July of 2013—and it’s not pretty.

 All Employees Sector Lombardi Publishing Chart

From the chart, you can clearly see how jobs growth in sectors like manufacturing, construction, and financial activities are lagging. But sectors such as professional and business services are rising. Yes, business for temp agencies is booming!

Other troubling trends in the jobs market: the labor force participation rate is declining, real wages have been declining, and the long-term unemployed continue to make up a huge percentage of those who are jobless.

Whoever said the U.S. economy is improving…they’re wrong.

Article by profitconfidential.com

A Value Play Among Institutions That’s Also Perfect for the Small Investor

By Profit Confidential

A Value Play Among Institutions That’s Also Perfect for the Small InvestorIf E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DD) didn’t have its burgeoning agriculture business, the stock would be in the tank. Instead, this slow-growth conglomerate has really surprised with its performance on the stock market this year. It’s definitely a value play among institutional investors—and a dividend one at that.

With a current dividend yield of approximately 3.2% and a price-to-earnings ratio of around 12, DuPont is seemingly breaking out of a long-term price consolidation on the stock market. It’s been 13 years since the position convincingly broke through $50.00 a share, and all the while, the company’s agriculture division has been flourishing.

If the rest of the company’s operations could grow, its share price would be much higher.

In the second quarter of 2013, the company’s total revenues actually fell to $9.84 billion, down from $9.92 billion in the second quarter of 2012.

Earnings also fell to $1.03 billion, or $1.11 per diluted share, down slightly from earnings of $1.17 billion, or $1.23 per diluted share, in the comparable quarter last year.

Interestingly, the company’s cash position soared along with shareholders’ equity. (See “Why DuPont’s Earnings Results Are So Typical for This Stock Market.”)

DuPont said that its agriculture sales grew a solid seven percent in the most recent quarter due to rising prices in global seed sales and stronger volumes in insecticides and fungicides. The two latter components are a huge part of global agriculture business.

Revealing the lackluster business conditions in emerging markets (including China, India, Latin America, and Eastern Europe) the company posted a mere one-percent gain in total sales in emerging markets to $2.8 billion. Higher volumes were offset by weaker local prices and currency translation.

DuPont’s agriculture-specific business is its largest, coming in with seven-percent sales growth in the second quarter to $3.6 billion. Six percent of this growth was due to price increases.

As I’ve written before, a spin-off of DuPont’s agriculture holdings would make for an excellent asset on the stock market, but it’s unlikely the company would go for it, because all of its other operating divisions are basically in decline.

DuPont declared a third-quarter dividend of $0.45 per share payable September 12, 2013 to shareholders of record on August 15, 2013. This was the same amount as paid in the second quarter, but with a growing cash hoard, a dividend increase is even more likely in the fourth quarter.

This company basically hasn’t done anything on the stock market since 1996/1997, but the way things are looking, this could very well change for the better going into 2014.

Management continues to pare down exposure to its performance chemicals division and U.S. agriculture incomes are expected to be a record this year.

It’s always odd for a company’s share price to be rising on declining earnings. In this specific case, it’s the value, the dividends, and a little hope of growth in the future.

Company management said it expects its earnings picture to improve in the bottom half of the year. Not surprisingly, many slow-growth companies say this.

If it happens, however, this stock will move higher. The marketplace wants to bid DuPont’s shares. It just needs to see improvement in its non-agriculture businesses.

Article by profitconfidential.com

My Two Favorite Discount Retail Stocks

By Profit Confidential

My Two Favorite Discount Retail StocksConsumers always shop for bargains and lower prices regardless of the economy. In fact, after going through the recession, consumers are probably stuck in the mind-frame of looking for the best deals when shopping. I know I prefer to buy goods on discounts and rarely for the original ticket price.

If you have been following my column, you know how I favor discount stocks in the retail sector.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE/WMT) remains the “Best of Breed” in the discount retail sector, but the company is currently facing some growth issues, as are many other stocks in the retail sector. (Read “How Red Flags in the Retail Sector Are Threatening U.S. GDP Growth.”)

What I continue to like in the retail sector are the dollar stores. While these retailers are now selling goods at a price above a dollar, what I like is the move by some companies to broaden their product offerings to include foods, such as perishables. Look at what Wal-Mart has been doing with its move into nearly everything you can imagine, taking advantage of its massive consumer shopping base.

One of my favorite dollar store stocks is Dollar General Corporation (NYSE/DG). This company has a market cap of $18.0 billion, so it’s not small; however, it is tiny in comparison to the $239-billion market cap of Wal-Mart or the $49.0-billion market cap of Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ/COST).

I initially spotted Dollar General in 2011 when the stock was trading in the $20.00 range. Since then, and with the propensity to look for value, the stock has had an excellent run, as reflected on the price chart below. Note the nice upward trendline since 2010.

Dollar General Corporation Chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Dollar General has been firing on all cylinders, beating the Thomson Financial consensus earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate in four of the last five quarters.

The company reported a record fiscal second quarter on Wednesday, with a 5.1% rise in the key same-store sales metric. The adjusted earnings came in at $0.77 per diluted share, which beat the consensus estimate of $0.74 per diluted share.

Dollar General also beat on the sales end, with $4.39 billion in sales for the quarter, surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.36 billion.

Even with the steady price appreciation, there’s still some room for Dollar General to grow, especially if you have a longer-term view.

In the mid-cap retail sector space, I continue to like PriceSmart, Inc. (NASDAQ/PSMT) in spite of its meteoric rise on the chart. The discount retailer with a focus on the Caribbean has been a star for me since I first started coverage on the retail sector stock in July 2009, when the price was at a mere $14.71.

PriceSmart Inc Chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

So while the economic recovery continues, my view is that the discounters in the retail sector will continue to excel.

Article by profitconfidential.com

An Obituary for the American Middle Class

By Profit Confidential

U.S. economyIt’s the elephant in the room no one wants to talk about…

The middle class in the U.S. economy is on the verge of collapse. Yes, I said collapse. That social class that once helped the U.S. economy grow and prosper is coming apart. Will the U.S. economy ever be the same without it or is this the new norm?

Here’s why it’s important to you.

The middle class helped the U.S. economy (following World War II and up until the credit crisis of 2008) by buying goods and services they needed or wanted. They bought cars, TV sets, furniture, appliances, clothing, computers, and flashy gadgets. In simple terms: they spent money.

The spending by the middle class resulted in American companies selling more, making more, and hiring more people to meet consumer demand. Businesses then took their profits and invested in new projects and built more factories. This is how cities like Detroit flourished.

But where does the middle class of the U.S. economy stand now?

Signs of trouble for the middle class of the U.S. economy actually started to surface at the start of the new century, but it wasn’t until the financial crisis when the middle class in the U.S. economy really started to deteriorate.

Today, the middle class is not buying or spending like it once did—and this is not by choice.

The collapse of the housing market in the U.S. economy has taken a devastating toll on the middle class in this country.

While the media and politicians keep telling us the housing market has turned the corner and is healthy again, the delinquency rate on single-family residential mortgages at all commercial banks in the second quarter of this year stood at 9.41%—that’s 558% higher than the delinquency rate in the first quarter of 2005. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site, last accessed September 4, 2013.)

If there was such a survey, my bet is it would show middle managers in the U.S. economy are making considerably less today than they did before the financial crisis. And retail sales in the U.S. economy show this. The middle class is moving from mid-tier retail stores like Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE/M) to low-end retailers like the Dollar General Corporation (NYSE/DG).

When presenting his company’s second-quarter earnings, the chairman and CEO of Dollar General, Richard Dreiling, said, “Dollar General delivered another solid quarter. Our same-store sales growth for the second quarter of 2013 accelerated to 5.1%. We are very pleased with the increase in customer traffic in our stores. We continue to grow our market share and believe that our second quarter results position us well to deliver our financial outlook for the year.” (Source: “Dollar General Corporation Reports Record Second Quarter 2013 Financial Results,” Dollar General Corporation web site, September 4, 2013.)

Unlike Dollar General, the executives from Macy’s complained about slower sales in the U.S. economy. (Mind you, Macy’s isn’t the only middle-of-the-road retailer complaining about customer demand.)

This is all happening because the middle class in the U.S. economy is actually earning less, which is something the politicians are not talking about.

Since the beginning of 2000, the rate of change in real disposable income per capita in the U.S. economy (that’s disposable income adjusted for inflation) has been declining.

In the first quarter of 2000, the 12-month rate of change in real disposable income per capita was up 3.2%. In the first quarter of this year, the same statistic was in negative territory—and there was no change in the second quarter. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site, last accessed September 4, 2013.) The incomes of Americans are actually declining, contrary to what you’d see in periods of economic growth.

When you look at all this, it’s easier to see why cities like Detroit went bankrupt and others are following in its footsteps after registering budget deficits year after year.

Albert Eisenstein said it perfectly: “Insanity is when you do the same thing over and over again and expect different results.” We heard from politicians after the financial crisis that they are working to bring growth to the middle class of the U.S. economy. It hasn’t happened. Specifically, I’m talking about how this money printing by the Federal Reserve has failed to help the middle class in this country.

Back in the day, the middle class was the backbone of the U.S. economy because they felt secure; jobs were plentiful and they saw rising incomes.

As it stands today, the U.S. government and our central bank is working to bring “calm” to the deteriorating middle class by keeping interest rates artificially low and by printing trillions of dollars in new money to save them. But unfortunately, the newly created money is finding its way to the big banks that, instead of taking the money and lending it the middle class using softer lending practices, are investing in the stock market. And interest rates, despite the Fed’s actions, are rising quickly.

I wrote during the financial crisis that the devastation from the crisis was so severe that America would be forced to become more like Europe, where the middle class disappeared and there are only the rich and the poor now. That’s a forecast I made five years ago, which with each passing day, unfortunately, comes closer to fruition.

What He Said:

“Starting two years ago I was writing how the housing boom would go bust and cause the U.S. economy to suffer sharply. That’s exactly what is happening today. From what I see happening in the U.S. economy, I’m keeping with the prediction I made earlier this year: By late 2007/early 2008, the U.S. will be in a homemade recession. Hence, I expect housing prices to continue declining, soft auto sales, soft consumer spending, and a lower stock market.” Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, August 15, 2007. You would have been hard-pressed to find another analyst predicting a U.S. recession in the summer of 2007. At the time, the stock market was roaring, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting what was then its all-time high of 14,164 in October of 2007.

Article by profitconfidential.com

Gold Marks 2 Years from Top with $30 Jump on Weak US Data

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Fri 6 Sept 09:55 EST

The PRICE of gold jumped $33 from a new 10-session low in just 5 minutes on Friday, touching $1393 per ounce before easing back after August’s Non-Farm Payrolls data on US jobs came in weaker than expected.

 Net hiring rose to 169,000 jobs instead of the 180,000 analysts forecast. The US unemployment rate, however, fell to a 44-month low of 7.3%.

 The US Federal Reserve has set a 7.0% target as a precondition for any discussion of raising Dollar interest rates from zero. Today’s data had been widely expected to decide this month’s vote on perhaps “tapering” the Fed’s $85 billion in monthly bond-buying stimulus.

 “To start the wind-down [of QE stimulus] it will be best to have confidence that…factors that we think have held down inflation really do turn out to be transitory,” said Chicago Fed president – and core supporter of the Fed’s $85 billion in monthly bond purchases – Charles Evans in a speech today.

 “It is right that monetary policy remain supportive where appropriate,” said IMF director Christine Lagarde at the G20 summit in St.Petersburg today.

 Responding to arguments over the impact of US Fed tapering talk on emerging markets, “I am pleased,” she added, “that the [group of 20 largest economies] recognizes the need to ensure that exit from unconventional monetary policy, when it comes, should be orderly and clearly communicated.”

 “Frankly having a position [in precious metals going into the jobs data was] a little like playing red or black on roulette,” said Marex Spectron’s head of precious metals David Govett ahead of the data release.

 Today marked the second anniversary of gold hitting its all-time highs for US and UK investors at $1920 and £1195 respectively.

 Friday’s spike and slip back put gold at $1383 and £888 – some 1.0% and 1.4% down for the week.

“It looks increasingly probable that gold might trapped range bound between $1350 and $1450,” says a note from Mitsui’s dealing team in Singapore, “while waiting for new stimulus to kickstart the next move.”

 Combating what they call “formidable selling above $1400, especially from gold producers,” the Japanese trading company’s dealers report “extremely bullish physical gold bar demand” in Asia.

 “Physical gold demand in China has clearly picked up,” says bullion market making bank HSBC, commenting on Thursday’s Hong Kong gold import data for July.

 “The recent pull-back in gold sub-$1400 may be an encouraging sign for price sensitive physical buyers to step back into the market.”

 Over in India meantime – the world’s No.1 gold buying nation – gold earlier extended Thursday’s sharp losses, falling to a 2-week low and dropping over 5% from late-August’s fresh record highs.

 The Reserve Bank of India today confirmed writing to temples in Kerala, asking them to report how much gold they currently hold.

 But “the RBI has no plans to buy gold,” the central bank’s regional director told reporters.

 “This exercise is nothing but part of a statistical exercise.”

 With the G20 meeting continuing in St.Petersburg today, and noting the ongoing tension between Russia and the US over possible military strikes against Syria’s Assad regime, “We see any gold rally on the back of rising geopolitical uncertainty as a selling opportunity,” says the latest Commodity/FX strategy note from French investment  bank Societe Generale.

 “We expect ETF selling to pick up again thereafter owing to the focus on expected Fed tapering, rising real rates and a stronger Dollar.”

 Ten-year US Treasury bond yields fell back from yesterday’s two-year high of 3.0% on Friday, while the US Dollar also turned south versus the Euro and Sterling.

 Silver meantime jumped and held above $23.80 per ounce, rising back above last week’s closing level after the key US jobs data.

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

 

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold and silver in Zurich or Singapore for just 0.5% commission.

 

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

 

Mexico cuts rate 25 bps on slower growth and inflation

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Mexico’s central bank cut its target for the interbank rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent, a surprise to financial markets, saying economic growth this year and 2014 will be weaker than expected, putting downward pressure on inflation.
    The Bank of Mexico, which also cut its rate in March, said the downside risks to the economy had risen and growth this year will be “considerably” less than forecast, just as growth in 2014 will be below the forecast. In its latest quarterly inflation report released last month, the central bank cut its forecast for 2013 growth to 2.0-3.0 percent from a previous 3-4 percent.
    “On balance, there are prevailing risks to global economic growth and in this context, coupled with the absence of significant pressure on commodity prices, the outlook for global inflation is low,” the central bank said, describing the global economy as having a mixed performance.
    Economic activity in Mexico slowed significantly in the second quarter, mainly due to a contraction of the industrial and services sectors, increasing the slack in the economy, and the central bank expects this to continue for an extended period. In addition, the government is also expected to make further progress in strengthening public finances.
    Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.74 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter for annual growth of only 1.5 percent, up from 0.6 percent in the first quarter, but well below growth in the previous three years.

     Mexico’s inflation rate also fell more than expected to 3.5 percent in the first half of August, with core inflation below 2.5 percent, the bank said. In July, the headline inflation rate eased to 3.47 percent in July from 4.09 percent in June.
    While medium and long-term inflation expectations have remained stable, expectations for the end of this year have declined as the impact of recent supply shocks did not have second-round effects.
    “With regard to inflation risks in the short term, there is the possibility that the weakening of Mexico’s economic activity is greater and more prolonged than expected and that could cause downward pressure,” said the bank, known as Banxico.
    The central bank said in July that it expected inflation this year to be very close to its target of 3 percent, but said today that the slack in the economy points to lower-than-predicted inflation and even changes from a tax reform would only have a transitory impact and probably no second-round effects.
    The central bank noted the recent volatility and pressure on the currencies of emerging economies, including Mexico’s, and higher medium and long-term interest rates due to the expected changes in U.S. monetary policy.
    “Mexico’s sovereign risk, unlike other emerging economies, has remained stable after having increased in May and June, contributing to the strength of Mexico’s macroeconomic fundamentals,” the central bank said.
    Last month the central bank’s governor, Agustin Carstens, said in Jackson Hole he thought the bank’s monetary policy stance was adequate to reach the inflation goal as the peso was weakening and growth was slowing.
    In March the central bank cut its rate by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points but had stressed it was not embarking on a new cycle of easing. It has now cut rates by 75 basis points this year.
    Along with other emerging market currencies, Mexico’s peso fell in May, but then bounced back in July before slipping in August. It was down almost 4 percent against the U.S. dollar since the start of this year, but rose after the rate cut, trading around 13.2 to the dollar.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

   
   

Non-Farm Payrolls Delivers Bad News

Article by Investazor.com

The most important indicator of the American labour market, the Non-Farm Employment Change, dissapointed big time with only 169k jobs created last month. On the other side, the unemployment rate  fell to 7.3%, a minimum close to data last reported in January 2009.  As this is an important critaria that Fed considers before deciding on the Quantitative Easing Program, the 18th of September looks like a battle even harder. Currently, the FOMC members are approving Ben Bernanke’s plan to reduce the easing program. Remains to be seen if the data released today will weight enough to influence the date of the tapering (later this year or next year). Economists incline to believe that the Fed’s decison will stay in place because their assessment is based on a broad range of indicators that offers information over a greater period of time.

In any case, United States’ economy shone yestrday in the light of the ADP results, 176k jobs created in the private sector, a decrease in the unemployment rate at 323k and the Non-Manufacturing Index showing an expansion correlated with 58.6 points.

Canada really delivered an improvement in the labour market with a fell in the unemployment rate at 7.1% and an impressionant number of new jobs created last month, 59.2k, mainly because of the boom in part-time jobs.

The post Non-Farm Payrolls Delivers Bad News appeared first on investazor.com.

Does Syria Matter?

By The Sizemore Letter

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee gave its blessing to President Obama’s plan to take limited action against the Syrian regime for using chemical weapons against its own people.   A full Senate vote is expected in the next few days and will likely pass.  Barring any hiccups in the House, the bombs could start falling as soon as next week.

Whenever the words “Middle East” and “war” get mixed in the same sentence, people get nervous.  It’s a messy and complicated part of the world with ever-shifting alliances and unlikely bedfellows.  Devoutly Sunni Saudi Arabia supports the secular military regime in Egypt, while constitutionally secular Turkey supports the deposed Muslim Brotherhood.  In Syria, a secular nationalist regime is supported by radical Shia Iran and Orthodox Christian (and formally communist) Russia.  And Lebanon?  Its political arrangements resemble something from the Godfather.

You might think that hatred of Israel is the tie that binds, but even this is a half-truth.  Though the two countries have no formal relations, Israel and Saudi Arabia have become allies of sorts, and rumors have flown in recent years that the Saudis have given the nod to the Israelis that it might <wink wink> be ok for their jets to cross Saudi airspace en route to bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.

This is why an airstrike on Syria gives us the jitters.  The fear is that, given how complicated the relationships are, a “limited” response could escalate into something much bigger, dragging in other regional players such as Iran, or even Russia.  Colin Powell warned George W. Bush that if he broke Iraq, he owned it.  No one in Congress or the White House wants to “own” Syria.

So with all of this as background, should investors worry about Syria?

Not really.  You should watch the headlines and be aware that events can change quickly.  But consider the following:

  1. The Western response is intended to punish the Assad regime but not remove it.  Assad will not escalate and give the West an incentive to remove him…particularly since he is winning the war.
  2. Syria’s options for retaliation are few and likely ineffective.  Could they attack Israel in the hopes of rallying the Arab street?  Maybe.  But Saddam Hussein tried that in the first Gulf War to little effect.
  3. Iran is not likely to join the fray.  Think about it.  If they sit tight, their ally in Syria will take some damage but will hold on to power.
  4. Vladimir Putin’s Russia likes to antagonize the West, but this isn’t the 1980s. Russia has little to gain from letting this escalate too far, particularly given that their ally is winning the war.
  5. Syria is not an oil-exporting country.  Unless Iran enters the fray and closes the Straits of Hormuz—which again, is unlikely—any spike in the price of oil should be a temporary blip.

There are plenty of macro risks out there to consider.  Front and center is the Fed’s tapering of its quantitative easing program, and Europe’s sovereign debt debacle is the crisis that never seems to end.  But Syria is not something you spend time worrying about.

This article first appeared on InvestorPlace.

Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, is the editor of the Sizemore Investment Letter and the chief investment officer of investments firm Sizemore Capital Management. Click here to learn about his top 5 global investing trends and get your copy of “The Top 5 Million Dollar Trends of 2013.”

This article first appeared on Sizemore Insights as Does Syria Matter?

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Three Ways to Profit from MLP Funds: Hinds Howard

Source: Tom Armistead of The Energy Report (9/5/13)

http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/three-ways-to-profit-from-mlp-funds-hinds-howard

Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) started to enter the limelight in 2011, but the best may be yet to come. Low interest rates are acting as a tailwind in the space, and the sector experienced its best performance in Q1/13. Hinds Howard, chief investment officer of Guzman Investment Strategies and author of the MLP HINDSight blog, tells The Energy Report about the unprecedented growth MLP funds are enjoying. He names the top performers, reveals the pros and cons of this complex investment vehicle and shares his secrets for wringing the most value out of it.

The Energy Report: Hinds, in your last interviewtwo years ago, you explained the little-understood master limited partnership (MLP). Would you briefly recap your definition of MLPs?

Hinds Howard: MLPs are flow-through entities for tax purposes, but they trade on public exchanges. They get that flow-through tax treatment because they generate qualifying income, as the Internal Revenue Service defines it. The MLP structure is mainly applied to assets that involve energy infrastructure and transportation, and exploration and storage of natural resources. There are three ways that MLPs can produce returns for an investor: through income, through distribution growth and through change in yield.

MLPs have grown quite a bit over the years, as has the need for more infrastructure. At the same time, more and more investors are getting interested in MLPs because they pay out a lot of their cash flow. MLPs have massively outperformed the broader stock market for several years, and they provide inflation protection because of their potential to grow distributions. They’re attractive investments for individuals who want to hold them forever. However, there are some nasty tax implications when you start to sell partial or total holdings of an MLP position.

TER: How have open-end MLP mutual funds performed in the last year compared to closed-end MLPs and MLP exchange-traded funds (ETFs)?

HH: I don’t invest in MLP products. My principal investing activities are around individual MLPs. In general, it is better to own individual MLPs directly for tax purposes. Also, buying the 10 largest MLPs would probably allow an individual to track the Alerian MLP Index better than a passive ETF due to some daily corporate tax drags. But owning individual MLPs requires some level of active management and produces significant tax complexity with multiple K-1s. Hence, investors seeking passive exposure to the MLP space or seeking MLP exposure in a tax-exempt account have gravitated toward this ever-increasing pool of MLP products.

As of late August, the open-end mutual funds have averaged a 16.3% total return. The best was the Oppenheimer SteelPath MLP Alpha Plus Fund (MLPNX:NASDAQ) at 23%. It employs a little bit of leverage. Eagle MLP Strategy Fund, at 20% so far this year, has the highest unleveraged performance, I believe. For closed-end MLP funds, average return has been 18.2%, with the highest being 26.3% from Kayne Anderson MLP Investment Co. (KYN:NYSE). ETFs, on average, have been around 14.7%, the highest being First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund (EMLP:NYSE.A) at 16.3%.

Each of those averages is lower than the Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:NYSE), which as of late August was a 19.8% total return for the year, so open-end mutual funds have done well relative to ETFs. Closed-end MLP funds have done really well, most of that performance coming in January after the fiscal cliff debacle at the end of 2012. The Alerian MLP Index has outperformed almost everything.

TER: Some companies, like Global X Funds and Yorkville Capital Management, have multiple funds. How would an investor pick the best ETF?

HH: It really depends on what kind of MLP exposure you’re looking for. Certain ETFs follow an index; for example the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP:NYSE) follows the Alerian MLP Index, but it’s float adjusted and market-cap weighted, so the largest MLPs represent a larger piece of that ETF. That may or may not be the best thing for an investor. If you’re looking for equal-weight exposure, some newer funds weight holdings evenly. Those are the major differences. There are not all that many MLPs to choose from. There’s the Yorkville High-Income MLP ETF (YMLP:NYSE) and the Yorkville High Income Infrastructure MLP ETF (YMLI:NYSE.A), the Global X Junior MLP ETF (MLPJ:NYSEArca) and the Global X MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF (MLPX:NYSE.A).

There are about 100 MLPs, and if you want to own an ETF that has only the midstream piece of that, you can do that through some of these MLP funds that specifically target midstream-weighted indexes. Generally those have been the best-performing assets within the MLP space. When you get a little bit further out on the risk spectrum, pay attention to the strategy and try to get the purest midstream exposure you can. You have to know what you own.

TER: What is the role of ETNs?

HH: They track the indexes the most closely, but they have their own unique issues. Like ETFs, they offer daily liquidity, very cheap fees and passive exposure to an index. But when you buy an ETN, you’re not buying ownership of an individual MLP or even an entity that owns MLPs; you’re buying a note issued by a large credit bank. So you have that credit risk of whichever bank is sponsoring the ETN, however remote that credit risk may be. Also, the quarterly dividends from ETNs are considered ordinary income for tax purposes.

The overriding theme of all these funds is there’s no perfect solution that works for everybody, and that’s why there are so many different products.

TER: Are there some specific names in the ETNs that stand out?

HH: Credit Suisse Equal Weight MLP Index ETN (MLPN:NYSE.A) is the one I would recommend for passive exposure to the MLP sector. It tracks the equal-weight Cushing 30 MLP Index.

TER: You mentioned tax surprises in MLPs. With respect to each of these different funds, what are the pros and cons in taxes, dividends, volatility and filing?

HH: Across the open-end funds, closed-end funds and ETFs, there is not a lot of difference in how they’re treated for tax purposes. The overriding theme is that there is no free lunch in the MLP space. There is no perfect vehicle that gets you MLP-like exposure without some tax drag. There is always some tradeoff, but each of these products—open-end funds, closed-end funds and ETFs—has daily liquidity. Their dividends are largely considered return of capital. So those are some of the positives. Each one of them produces a 1099 rather than a K-1. Each one blocks unrelated business taxable income, which is why you can own them in tax-exempt accounts more easily than you can own an individual MLP. But each one is usually structured as a corporation. That causes a double taxation effect that individual MLPs don’t have.

Closed-end funds have a limited amount of capital and they can’t create new units, so their market value can trade out of whack with the net asset value (NAV) of the funds themselves because there is a fixed supply of units. The closed-end and open-end funds both offer active management, but open-end funds tend to track their NAV better. ETFs are largely passive and have lower fees but they don’t track their indexes well because of the daily corporate tax drag. ETNs track their indexes closely, because they are structured to do exactly that. ETNs pay interest that tracks the distributions of the index it tracks, net of a management fee.

TER: Are institutional investors starting to discover MLP funds?

HH: I think institutional ownership of MLPs has been increasing quite a bit for several years now. We’ve seen an increase in direct MLP investment by certain tax-exempt investors, such as state pension funds, college endowments, even churches. But that’s all anecdotal—I don’t have hard data on that. The big appetite I see for these products is coming from retail investors, specifically from tax-exempt retail accounts or retirement accounts. These are investors who understand the MLP story but want exposure that doesn’t create a lot of administrative tax burden. MLPs are a good story. It’s energy independence. It’s income. It’s distribution growth. They’re all-weather investments and easy to sell from a brokerage standpoint.

TER: In your last interview, you talked about the outperformance of general partner (GP) MLPs. How have they fared this year?

HH: GPs, on average, have produced a total return of 29.5% this year, compared to 15% in 2012. That’s roughly 10% better than the Alerian MLP Index. GP holding companies have consistently and substantially outperformed their subsidiary MLPs and the MLP sector overall the last five years. But when things go bad in the MLP space, GPs don’t do so well. In 2008, the average GP was down 56% versus the MLP Index, which was down around 37%, because they grow a lot faster than their underlying MLP. And often the market doesn’t recognize the impact of future equity offerings at the MLP, which tend to have a magnifying effect on the cash flows that go up to the general partner. So there are a few structural nuances of GPs that make them perpetual outperformers.

TER: The U.S. energy infrastructure—mainly electrical infrastructure, transmission lines, but also pipelines—earned a D+ grade on the American Society of Civil Engineers’ (ASCE) 2013 Infrastructure Report Card. Does this point to a significant opportunity for MLPs in the energy space?

HH: There’s a huge opportunity for MLPs to be the ones that continue to build pipelines and continue to add infrastructure that’s needed in and around the Bakken, the Eagle Ford Shale and those hot areas in the Marcellus and Utica areas. MLPs could help improve electricity infrastructure in major demand centers, but for the most part, those assets are not MLP-qualifying. But I think generally MLPs are a huge part of the solution in terms of expanding our energy infrastructure, increasing our energy independence and bringing back the manufacturing and the petrochemical industries. It’s generally good for the industrial infrastructure of the country, maybe not so much for the consumers’ infrastructure. It’s more focused on the business-to-business side of things.

TER: How have low natural gas prices and interest rates affected MLPs?

HH: Low interest rates have definitely been a tailwind for the MLP space. They have been able to borrow money to build things and to buy things at very cheap rates, especially the larger MLPs that have investment-grade ratings that enable them to borrow at rates much lower than the rest of the sector. That’s been a huge boon to the MLP space, as people are forced to search elsewhere besides their bank’s savings account for income.

Low natural gas prices, on the other hand, have not been helpful for certain MLPs. Depending on where your assets are and what the structures of your contracts are, things could be fine for you as an MLP or they could be very bad. If you’re depending on the price differential between natural gas in one side of the state or one side of the country and another, like many MLPs that had large pipeline systems were back in 2005-2006, those differentials have all come down quite a bit. Because we have so much natural gas in the Northeast now, there is not as much need and you don’t get paid as much for transporting natural gas from anywhere else in the country to the Northeast.

The theme of the MLP sector lately is that the assets are so varied that either you have to be totally passive and just buy the whole sector or you have to find someone who knows the differences between the MLPs and chooses the ones that are going to benefit from a given commodity price environment. One thing could be very positive for one MLP and not great for another. That has been the biggest net result of the 36 MLP initial public offerings (IPOs) we’ve had in the last three years.

TER: Permitting energy infrastructure, especially electric transmission and pipelines, is a pretty controversial proposition, and it often results in long delays in project execution. Do MLPs need to protect themselves from the risk of local community opposition in these cases?

HH: I think you see it with the bigger projects. With some of the smaller projects you’re not seeing a lot of pushback. I imagine that MLPs undergoing multibillion-dollar pipeline projects are taking whatever measures are necessary to ensure that that pipeline project gets done, and they’re probably being more conservative than they were a few years ago about setting expectations for investors around the timing of those projects.

TER: In your 2011 interview, you talked about how quickly the MLP space had grown. What has been the track record since then? Has it grown as fast since 2011 as it did in the period leading up to that date?

HH: The range and number of MLPs coming to market have kept up their torrid pace from 2011, when there were 13 MLP IPOs. In 2012, there were 12 MLP IPOs. There have already been 11 in 2013, and there are several more in the backlog. And IPOs are coming out in more and more different areas: oilfield services, refinery, even fertilizer MLPs. Investment performance in 2012 wasn’t great. I think there was a little bit of indigestion around some of the 2011 IPOs, but in early 2013 we saw a relief rally. MLPs had their best quarter ever in Q1/13. That was where most of the gains were made. MLPs have been struggling a bit this summer. It will be interesting to see how the year finishes out. Even if it finishes flat for this year, a 15%+ total return for the year is not bad.

TER: Swank Capital rebalanced the Cushing 30 MLP Index (MLPX:NYSE) in June, removing four names. When there is a rebalancing like that, does it make that fund more attractive because maybe it’s better positioned for what’s going on right now?

HH: I think it’s just the normal course of things. I think you may have seen more this summer, but each index is set up to rebalance quarterly. It usually is happening at the lower end. You don’t see the top two or three MLPs changing much. The big players, for the most part, remain the same. It’s still a very small sector when you start adding up their market caps. The top four or five MLPs are as big as probably the next 20.

TER: Thank you for your insights.

HH: Thanks for having me.

Hinds Howard manages investments in master limited partnerships (MLPs) as chief investment officer of Guzman Investment Strategies. Howard publishes equity research on MLPs as the senior research analyst for Guzman & Co. Since 2009, he has published an MLP blog, MLP HINDSight. Before joining Guzman, Howard managed MLP investments as a partner of Curbstone Group LLC, and served as research associate for Lehman Brothers MLP Partners. He has a Bachelor of Science in business administration and obtained his Master of Business Administration from Babson College.

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Elliott Wave Pre-NFP Review: EURUSD and USDCAD

Markets did not go far since yesterday’s US close, as speculators are sitting on their hands ahead of the US NFP report today at 12:30GMT. Expectations are 178K; if news will be better than this, let’s say around 200K, then be aware of a strong push higher on USD Index that will cause weaker majors. At the same time US bonds could extend the decline based on QE tapering because of good data. Markets however may not be ready for tapering just yet, there is a lot of risk involved especially in stocks, and as a result we could see a spike higher on US stocks futures on good number but then sharp bearish reversal on speculation for tapering.

On the other-hand, if data will be bad then stocks may not go far but EUR, GBP and others will find a bid, but only temporary, because our wave patterns are pointing for strong USD. Lets take a look at EURUSD and USDCAD

On EURUSD prices fell sharply yesterday from 1.3220 which could be start of a larger impulsive weakness. The reason is also a current bounce from 1.310 that has qualities of a corrective move. As such, bias remains bearish. Intra-day resistance is seen at 1.3150, at 38.2% Fibo level. Any rise back to 1.3220 will put pair in bullish mode, but only temporary for a larger corrective rally.

EURUSD 30min Elliott Wave Analysis
EURUSD 30 Min Elliott Wave Analysis
On USDCAD we can see lower prices, but based on the wave structure since end of August we suspect that pair is in final stages of a corrective move, called a flat correction. Wave (c) already has five waves down, so be aware of a bounce. Break above 1.0515 wave (iv) point will suggest that flat is complete and bullish moves underway.

USDCAD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

USDCAD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

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