The Netflix Revolution: Should You Invest?

By The Sizemore Letter

 

On my recent trip to Baltimore, I sat down to chat with Jeff Reeves about “revolutionary” stocks, using streaming pioneer Netflix ($NFLX) as an example.

Netflix has revolutionized media distribution.  It’s ironic, given that Netflix started as a mail-order DVD rental company, but Netflix’s streaming video service effectively killed the DVD as a format.  In a world where movies and TV shows can be sent to your TV on demand, waiting for a disc to be delivered by the postal service or–gasp!–leaving your house to rent a movie from a Redbox kiosk or Blockbuster video store  seems almost quaint.

There’s one little problem with the Netflix Revolution: there is no guarantee that Netflix will be the winner.  Netflix has few “moats” to speak of, and the company already has competition from Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN) and Wal-Mart’s ($WMT) Vudu–three well-capitalized competitors.

Watch Jeff and I discuss Netflix in the embedded video above.  And here is snippet of Jeff’s write-up from The Slant:

Netflix (NFLX) has been on a tear in 2013, with shares tripling since Jan. 1, and recently, Netflix reported second-quarter earnings that beat estimates, while NFLX revenue met expectations.

But NFLX could be hitting a snag soon, says Charles Sizemore, as its relatively high P/E ratio and stiff competition from Amazon (AMZN) and others put the screws to this streaming video stock.

NFLX certainly has a great product, and Charles and I are both personally subscribers of Netflix. But that’s the thing — as NFLX users, we are both all too familiar with the recent move by Amazon Prime to snap up Nickelodeon shows from Netflix by paying parent company Viacom (VIAB) a juicier royalty rate in exchange for exclusivity on Blue’s Clues,Dora the Explorer, Go, Diego, Go! and other children’s hits.

Being first doesn’t necessarily guarantee success, and that’s a real risk for NFLX. Because after Amazon there’s also Google (GOOG) with its paid YouTube channels,Intel (INTC) launching an Internet cable product and Apple (AAPL) pushing its own digital video businesses.

Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, is the editor of the Sizemore Investment Letter and the chief investment officer of investments firm Sizemore Capital Management. As of this writing, he was long WMT and INTC. Click here to learn about his top 5 global investing trends and get your copy of “The Top 5 Million Dollar Trends of 2013.”

This article first appeared on Sizemore Insights as The Netflix Revolution: Should You Invest?

Join the Sizemore Investment Letter – Premium Edition

Investing in British REITs

By The Sizemore Letter

REITs have become a portfolio staple for income investors over the past decade and rightfully so.  There are few investable options that offer the same potential for a high and rising cash payout, a built-in inflation hedge, and diversified exposure to an asset class—commercial real estate—that would otherwise be off limits to most individual investors.

I’m a big believer in REITs, and I own a couple—such as Realty Income (O) and National Retail Properties (NNN) that I hope to never sell.   I plan on using their income streams to pay my bills in retirement…and if my kids are smart, they will hold on to the shares long after I’m gone.   There is no such thing as a “risk free” investment, but a high-quality, cash-flowing property portfolio is the closest thing I’ve found.

The REIT structure was invented in the United States, and the vast majority of all traded REITs are American.  But the idea has caught on overseas as well, particularly in the UK and parts of Asia.

Should you consider international REITs in a diversified income portfolio?

Absolutely.  Today, we’re going to take a look at some of the investable options starting with the UK.

But first, I have a confession: I religiously watch Downton Abbey.  It’s a hobby I generally keep in the closet (I live in Texas…what would the neighbors say), but I consider it one of the best-produced series of the past decade.  The series shows the evolution of the aristocratic Crawley family and how they adapt to a changing world.  Their traditional lifestyle is turned upside down by the rise of the new middle class and by the rise of modern industrial farming.

The characters in the show are purely fictional.  But have you ever wondered what happened to the real-life equivalents the Earl and Countess of Grantham?

The successful ones turned their landed estates into diversified property empires. With a fortune estimated at $18 billion, Gerald Grosvenor—the Duke of Westminster—is the wealthiest person in Britain via his interests in the Grosvenor Group, a property corporation with offices in 18 cities worldwide that happens to sit on some of the most valuable land in the West End of London.

Robert-Earl-of-Grantham-Hugh-Bonneville-downton-abbey-15932405-570-364

He should have taken investment advice from the Duke of Westminster.

Unfortunately, you can’t invest with the Duke unless you are a high-net worth individual or a large institutional investor.  But there are plenty of publicly-traded British REITs to choose from.

I’ll start with the largest, Land Securities (UK:LAND, OTC:$LSGOF).   Land Securities—which holds a mix of office, retail, and residential properties—is heavily weighted in London, which has been a major boost for the portfolio.  Even while the rest of the country has seen property values languish over the past five years, prices in London’s posh neighborhoods—which are at new all-time highs—make it look like 2006 all over again.  London property has been a favored haven for the world’s wealthy, and particularly the wealthy from Russia and the Arab world.  (On a side note, Land Securities also owns the iconic neon billboards in Piccadilly Circus.)

Land Securities is reasonably cheap, trading at about a 5% discount to book value.  But this is only cheap if you consider the underlying property itself to be reasonably priced.  The stock yields 3.35% in dividends, which is a little on the skimpy side for a REIT.  And the company cut the dividend during the pits of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, which is a cardinal sin for an income investment.

So, Land Securities is essentially a bet on London property prices and on the success of new developments, making far more of a growth investment than a pure income investment.

Next on the list is British Land (UK:BLND, OTC: $BTLCY), which is also heavily weighted in London.   British Land’s portfolio is more heavily weighted in retail properties, which account for about half of its holdings.

At 4.7%, British Land sports a more attractive dividend yield, though the company’s payout has actually shrunk a little from its pre-crisis levels.  It also trades at a slight discount to book value (a little less than 3%).

For a more diversified choice, take a look at Hammerson PLC (OTC: $HMSNF, UK:HMSO).  Hammerson is a diversified retail REIT with properties scattered across the UK.    It also owns a fair number of properties in Germany, Spain, and France.

Having less exposure to London, Hammerson has benefitted less from the boom in that market.  But as Europe’s capital markets return to “normal,” Hammerson may have the best upside from this point on.

Hammerson trades at an 11% discount to book value and yields a modest 3.74% in dividends.  Like the other REITs covered, Hammerson hit a rough patch during the financial crisis and was forced to issue new stock and reduce its dividend per share, though the dividend has been steadily rising since 2010.

Before you run out and buy British REITs, there are a couple points to consider:

  1. The REIT structure is still relatively new to the UK, having been introduced in 2007.  Most British REITs were originally property development companies rather than semi-passive landlords.  As such, they tend to be more growth-focused than purely income focused.  The U.S. REIT market has its share of growth-and-development-oriented REITs as well—think Vornado (VNO)—but the sector as a whole is more oriented towards current income.
  2. Many British REITs trade in the U.S. as ADRs, but I do NOT recommend buying them.  Even though each of the REITs mentioned is a multi-billion-dollar enterprise, the trading volumes on the ADRs is almost nil.  You’re much better off buying the London-listed shares.  These days, it’s not particularly hard to trade on foreign markets.  Depending on who you use for brokerage, you may need to call the order in via phone rather than using the standard website interface.   And if you have any questions, that is exactly what I suggest you do.  If you are new to international markets, I recommend you call your broker and have them walk you through the process.

British REITs are not the only non-U.S. option.  In Part II, we’ll take a look at options in Asia.

Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, is the editor of the Sizemore Investment Letter and the chief investment officer of investments firm Sizemore Capital Management. As of this writing, he was long NNN and O. Click here to learn about his top 5 global investing trends and get your copy of “The Top 5 Million Dollar Trends of 2013.”

This article first appeared on Sizemore Insights as Investing in British REITs

Join the Sizemore Investment Letter – Premium Edition

“Flight to Safety” Seen Driving Gold, Silver Back to April Crash Levels

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Weds 28 Aug. 08:45 EST

The WHOLESALE price of gold touched its highest level since mid-May in London Wednesday morning, trading briefly at $1433 per ounce before edging $10 lower as European stock markets extended yesterday’s losses.

 US crude oil added another 1.2% to hit 2-year highs above $110 per barrel, while silver prices touched $25 per ounce – the best level since this April’s gold crash, when the white metal dropped $4 in two days.

US Treasury bonds also fell Wednesday morning, nudging interest rates higher even German and UK debt prices rose.

 “The possibility of US military action against Syria is driving demand for safe-haven assets including gold,” reckons commodities fund manager Jeffrey Sherman at Los Angeles-based $56 billion DoubleLine.

 UK prime minister David Cameron said Wednesday he’s pushing for a UN resolution “authorising necessary measures to protect [Syrian] civilians” following this month’s chemical weapons attack.

 “This is a classic case of a flight to safety,” agrees Mike Meyer, assistant vice president at EverBank World Markets, talking to CNN.

 “The tension in Syria, as well as Egypt a few weeks ago, have set the wheels in motion for gold to rise.”

 But “Helped by a thin trading environment, gold was immediately treated as safe haven” after last Friday’s poor US home sales data, says the latest weekly report from German refining group Heraeus.

 “With the summer coming to an end, general demand is picking up again and we see in the current environment sufficient support for gold to stay around the current level.”

 Starting in early August, says Credit Suisse’s Tom Kendall, speaking to Reuters, “you’ve had something of the order of 6 million ounces of short-covering going through on the Comex futures and options market.”

 That turnaround in short-term gold sentiment “has been playing into it as well,” says Kendall.

 On a technical basis. “Gold has been rising within an up sloping channel since July and within a steeper one since early August,” write chart analysts at French bank Societe Generale today.

 Gold is now “nearing the channel upper limits,” the SocGen analysts believe, “with hourly indicators…suggesting $1437/41 to be a key graphic level.”

 “We will retain our longer term bearish forecast,” says Axel Rudolph at Germany’s Commerzbank, “while the gold price remains below the $1424.05 June high on a daily chart closing basis.

 “The current corrective rally higher should be followed by another decline back to the $1300/1250 region.”

 Rising 20% from their near 3-year low in Dollar terms at end-June, prices for wholesale gold bars also broke new multi-week highs today against all other currencies.

Investment gold priced in Australian Dollars today leapt above A$1600 per ounce, the highest level since February 12.

 Gold prices in Indian Rupees touched fresh record highs as the #1 gold consumers’ currency sank to fresh lows on the FX market.

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

 

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold and silver in Zurich or Singapore for just 0.5% commission.

 

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

Time for Investors to Hunker Down

By OilPrice.com

It’s time to step out from my ‘normal’ role as the ‘energy expert’ and make a comment or two on the markets in general, just as a professional trader who’s seen quite a bit in his almost 3 decades of daily experience with capital markets and the way they act. Patterns emerge that aren’t foolproof, but they’ve served well over the years and they are making some very visceral noises to me, even observing the action at longer range on vacation.

Here’s something that won’t be news to you – the markets look terrible.

It’s not just the fundamental information that most of the ‘regular’ equity analysts have been filling you full of on every media outlet around: There’s the lowering of expectations on earnings, not just the disappointments of 2nd quarter results (which were uninspiring). It’s not just the continued bad indications from the emerging markets, whose growth rates continue to be guided downward. It’s not the continuing bleat of ‘taper talk’ which (for those who believe this has been a totally fed-inspired rally) would be a total death knell for stocks.

You don’t need me to point out any of this.

But here’s what I see. There’s a stock market that continues to ride the lower edges of some usually reliable technical indicators, like the RSI and Stochastic, usually a good sign for a technical rally. There’s a market that’s felt extended but now looks more like it’s really rolling over, and not for any short-term of a few sessions or weeks, as we had earlier this year. We’ve got a bond market that may be even worse than equities, and is riding out into the sunset on a wave of panic, with very few analysts interested in buying. And we’ve got a pick-up in some of the most ‘left-for-dead’ commodities that were never supposed to come back, including copper and natural gas, up above $3.50/mcf again.

Every stock rally looks like it has to be sold and Gold actually looks like it should be bought.

These are not good signs, folks. These are the signs of a market that has put in it’s best values for the next several months and has a best case scenario of moving sideways for the rest of the year, if not into the first few quarters of 2014.

But, where can you go? As an oil trader, I’ve got no problem being short commodities, but a lousy track record being short stocks. That’s why I’ve advocated collecting premium wherever you can by selling calls either in the money or slightly out of it on most every issue you own in stocks. With your commodity exposure, I still maintain that most of the risk remains to the upside and the strong correlations between oil and stocks are slowing breaking.

In very, very unique cases, I might look to buy something undervalued, but it would have to have been undervalued for years, as the miners have been or perhaps inside the natural gas space. Over the last few columns, I’ve given you some ideas here and I’ll continue to do that when appropriate.

But for now and into the near future, I’m hunkering down.

The market action just stinks.

By. Dan Dicker of Oilprice.com

This report is part of Oilprice.com’s premium publication Oil & Energy Insider . Oil & Energy Insider gives subscribers an information advantage when investing, trading or doing business in the energy sectors. Successful investors, hedge funds and senior executives, have access to high level intelligence and power in ways that you, as an individual investor, are locked out of (the game is and never has been fair.) Let us help you level the playing field by using our network of traders, intelligence assets and high level partnerships to ensure you are making the right investment decisions.

To find out more on how you can get a legal inside advantage in the energy markets please take a moment to visit: http://oilprice.com/premium

 

Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold and Oil Are Ready For A Pull-back

We know that after every five wave move correction follow in three waves. And that’s exactly what is happening on OIL; we see a completed five wave move from 105.50 to 112.20 so market is now forming a pull-back; an a)-b)-c) move back to former wave four zone placed at 108.57.

OIL 1h Elliott Wave Analysis


On GOLD we can see that prices reached 1430 level which was highlighted yesterday in our members area. From where we can already see some bearish pressure coming in, so market could form a temporary top very soon if we consider  five wave move up in black wave iii , which means that a corrective set-back in wave iv towards 1406 of former wave four could be in the cards. However, larger trend remains up so keep an eye on that 1406 figure for a possible bounce.

GOLD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

Written by www.ew-forecast.com
Try EW-Forecast.com’s Services Free for 7 Days

 

Dow Jones Transports Showing Life Again; Will the Stock Market Follow?

By Profit Confidential

 stock marketThe Dow Jones Transportation Average is sneaking back upwards. It’s been in consolidation since mid-May, but now it’s holding firm at what is basically an all-time record high.

Over the last 15 years, this index has been extremely volatile, but not uncharacteristically over the very long term.

Adhering to the old Dow theory, I still believe that the Dow Jones Transportation Average is both a leading stock market indicator and a confirming index regarding business conditions. Many stocks within the index are trading close to their all-time record highs.

Looking at many component companies of the Dow Jones Transportation Average, I see stock market leadership and trading action representative of the broader market, but in advance of its performance. Stock market speculation on economic renewal is real and without subterfuge. It is the long-run speculative ebb and flow of the equity market.

Returning to the performance of the Dow Jones Transportation Average, if it breaks out above 6,600 then there is a real chance it will push its most recent record high, which it set in the beginning of August.

Within the index, components such as Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) and Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) have been on a roll lately. Part of it (like everything else in the stock market) has been due to the monetary expansion fostered by the Federal Reserve. But it’s not the whole story. These corporations are reporting improved business conditions.

Alaska Air Group was a Dow Jones dud for decades until 2010. The company’s been a stock market darling ever since

The company’s second-quarter revenues didn’t even grow that much, rising to $1.26 billion from $1.21 billion comparatively. But like so many other corporations who’ve been able to increase prices without affecting demand, the bottom line has been expanding.

Alaska Air Group’s second-quarter earnings were $104 million, or $1.47 per diluted share, way up from comparable earnings of $68.0 million, or $0.93 per diluted share. And that’s why this Dow Jones transportation component has been so hot recently—its earnings, not its top-line growth. (A big part of the company’s earnings performance was the successful hedging of fuel costs.)

And this is a story so reminiscent of many stock market benchmarks. Top-line growth is modest at best, but earnings only meet Wall Street consensus based on productivity, price inflation, and financial engineering tactics—not because of newly originated robust demand.

But among many corporations and components of the Dow Jones Transportation Average, balance sheets are strong. And while the stock market bets on earnings, this trend is helpful in the long run. (See “My Suggestion on Reducing Stress with This Stock Market.”)

I watch the Dow Jones Transportation Average with fervor, and even though it may be seen as “old-school,” I see its trading action as a leading indicator, both for the stock market and the U.S. economy.

Recognizing that the stock market can’t, of course, rally without the participation of other indices, component companies of the Dow Jones Transportation Average are old economy benchmarks, and these businesses still very much account for a big part of the U.S. economy.

Article by profitconfidential.com

Why Microsoft May Finally Be Set to Turn Its Fortune Around

By Profit Confidential

technical analysisSteve Ballmer’s run as the head of Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ/MSFT) is winding down after his somewhat surprising decision to exit the company within a year.

Yet the move may make the difference between Microsoft being a mediocre technology company or a technology company blazing ahead of its competitors, right at the forefront of technological advances.

My opinion on Ballmer is mixed, as I feel like he focused way too much on developing the next-generation “Windows” operating system instead of recognizing new market trends.

Under Ballmer, the company failed to really gain much altitude and has been a dead stock for over a decade, as reflected by the sideways channel from 2001, based on my technical analysis of the stock chart below.

Microsoft Corp Chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Microsoft failed to recognize the growing importance of the mobile advance even when smartphones started to become hugely popular, even after the emergence of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL) and its “iPhone” in 2007. Microsoft also failed to focus its energies on the tablet market, while Apple introduced its “iPad” in 2010. Years passed with Apple becoming more and more valuable than Microsoft before Ballmer decided to make a push into the high-growth mobile market. And this is what has hurt shareholders.

The one thing that Ballmer has done well has been moving the company into the gaming and entertainment console market with its “Xbox” platform and rapidly growing market share. Kudos to Ballmer for ensuring the company’s rapidly growing market share in this sector, but his shortfall on the shift from rigid platforms to mobility will haunt him.

What’s important is that Microsoft should be looking to add a new leader who has technological savvy and vision, a leader who could take the company to the next level and demand valuation premiums worthy of a growth stock. The company must continue to focus more on its small mobility unit. (Read “Has Microsoft Finally Become Relevant in the Mobile Market?”)

With net cash of about $60.0 billion, Microsoft’s new CEO will have sufficient resources to build up the company’s mobile unit, along with other emerging technology areas that show great promise.

An idea to unlock the value of its gaming business may be to break the company into pieces to create spin-offs. If the mobile business picks up, Microsoft may also be looking to separate this section of its business or combine it with the gaming business, as the new platform will have a strong wireless element.

So as we wait for the new CEO, I hope he or she will have the vision and aggression to once again make Microsoft an interesting stock, something akin to what Yahoo! Inc. (NASDSAQ/YHOO) CEO Marissa Mayer has been doing. Kind of makes me wish she was around for Microsoft.

Article by profitconfidential.com

Asian Equities Dragged Lower

By HY Markets Forex Blog

The geopolitical fears in the Middle East dragged Asian equities lower for the second day in a row, as investors’ fears over the possibility of a military intervention in Syria. An air missile strike against the country is expected to come as soon as Thursday, security analysts warned.

Analysts warned that the ongoing conflict and development in shares could be a risk to the global market, with possible bigger trembles in the global market yet to come..

“Any potential change in the balance of power in Syria’s civil war poses a new uncertainty for financial and commodity markets, but it doesn’t immediately threaten the global economy. The losses were spread across sectors in multiple markets, with internationally exposed firms in Japan also suffering because of the stronger yen,” a Wells Fargo analyst Paul Christopher said in a note on Tuesday.

Asian Equities – Conflict in Syria

The geopolitical instability in the Middle East, especially in Syria and Egypt added to the firming safe-haven yen, as the strong yen hurts Japanese exporters.

A group of nations including US, UK, France and Canada hinted they are considering military intervention on suspicion that the chemical weapons may have been used against civilians by the Syrian government.

“This is not about wars in the Middle East; this is not even about the Syrian conflict,” British Prime Minister David Cameron said yesterday. “It’s about the use of chemical weapons and making sure, as a world, we deter their use,” he added.

Earlier this week, the US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said that the military may have to intervene and take action against the Syrian government.

The Japanese benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 1.51% to 13,338.46 points. While shares in the region were hit by strengthened yen, dropping 0.23% to ¥97.24 at the time of writing.

Tokyo’s broader Topix index dropped 1.76% lower at 1.114.03 points.

Losses were seen in the session in China, with Hang Kong’s Hang Seng retreating 1.63% to 21,518.00 points and China’s mainland Shanghai composite lost 0.11% lower at 2,101.30 points.

 

Find how you can start trading shares in the Asian Markets by visiting www.hymarkets.com today and start trading from $50! 

The post Asian Equities Dragged Lower appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog