The most recent weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures traders increased their total bullish bets of the US dollar last week to the highest level since June 2012, according to Reuters.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, raised their overall US dollar long position of $26.829 billion as of Tuesday May 7th. This was an increase from the total long position of $24.49 billion on April 30th, according to position calculations by Reuters that derives this total by the amount of US dollar positions against the total positions of euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
Total US dollar long positions had declined slightly the previous two weeks and had fluctuated between $23.57 billion and $26.3 billion for the previous nine weeks, according to the Reuters calculations. US dollar positions turned into a bullish position on February 19th when USD bets equaled $1.481 billion after having been in an overall bearish position from November 2012 to February 2012.
What is the COT Report:
The weekly cot report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
Individual Currencies Large Speculators Positions in Futures:
The individual currency net speculator positions last week saw advances for the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar while the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso all saw a declining number of net large trader contracts for the week.
Individual Currency Charts: (Please Click on Chart to Enlarge)
EuroFX: Weekly change of –3,384
EuroFX: Large trader positions for the euro deteriorated last week after showing an improvement the previous week. Euro contracts decreased to a total net position of -33,533 contracts in the data reported for May 7th following the previous week’s total of -30,149 net contracts on April 30th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: EURO
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Change |
| 04/02/2013 | -65701 | -16606 |
| 04/09/2013 | -50858 | 14843 |
| 04/16/2013 | -29764 | 21094 |
| 04/23/2013 | -34275 | -4511 |
| 04/30/2013 | -30149 | 4126 |
| 05/07/2013 | -33533 | -3384 |
British Pound Sterling: Weekly change of -4,479
GBP: British pound spec positions declined last week after improving for three consecutive weeks and to the best position since March 12th. British pound speculative positions decreased last week to a total of -63,086 net contracts on May 7th following a total of -58,607 net contracts reported for April 30th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Pound Sterling
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 04/02/2013 | -65020 | 1535 |
| 04/09/2013 | -69969 | -4949 |
| 04/16/2013 | -61975 | 7994 |
| 04/23/2013 | -60112 | 1863 |
| 04/30/2013 | -58607 | 1505 |
| 05/07/2013 | -63086 | -4479 |
Japanese Yen: Weekly change of -7,433
JPY: Japanese yen net speculative contracts fell last week after improving for the previous three straight weeks and to the best level since February 26th. Japanese yen positions dropped to a total of -78,560 net contracts on May 7th following a total of -71,127 net short contracts on April 30th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Yen
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 04/02/2013 | -78171 | 10978 |
| 04/09/2013 | -77697 | 474 |
| 04/16/2013 | -93411 | -15714 |
| 04/23/2013 | -79730 | 13681 |
| 04/30/2013 | -71127 | 8603 |
| 05/07/2013 | -78560 | -7433 |
Swiss Franc: Weekly change of +2,029
CHF: Swiss franc speculator positions improved last week after declining the previous week. Net positions for the Swiss currency futures advanced slightly to a total of -6,235 contracts on May 7th following a total of -8,264 net contracts reported for April 30th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Franc
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 04/02/2013 | -12015 | 183 |
| 04/09/2013 | -10014 | 2001 |
| 04/16/2013 | -3253 | 6761 |
| 04/23/2013 | 1179 | 4432 |
| 04/30/2013 | -8264 | -9443 |
| 05/07/2013 | -6235 | 2029 |
Canadian Dollar: Weekly change of +15,932
CAD: Canadian dollar positions improved sharply last week for a third consecutive week after falling to a new low level for 2013 on April 16th. Canadian dollar positions improved to a total of -51,916 contracts as of May 7th following a total of -67,848 net contracts that were reported for April 30th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: CAD
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 04/02/2013 | -64544 | -1899 |
| 04/09/2013 | -71133 | -6589 |
| 04/16/2013 | -75913 | -4780 |
| 04/23/2013 | -71679 | 4234 |
| 04/30/2013 | -67848 | 3831 |
| 05/07/2013 | -51916 | 15932 |
Australian Dollar: Weekly change of -23,604
AUD: The Australian dollar large speculator positions decreased sharply again last week to decline for a sixth consecutive week. Aussie speculative futures positions fell to a total net amount of +6,630 contracts on May 7th after totaling +30,234 net contracts as of April 30th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: AUD
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 04/02/2013 | 83971 | -1544 |
| 04/09/2013 | 77879 | -6092 |
| 04/16/2013 | 53175 | -24704 |
| 04/23/2013 | 31257 | -21918 |
| 04/30/2013 | 30234 | -1023 |
| 05/07/2013 | 6630 | -23604 |
New Zealand Dollar: Weekly change of -514
NZD: New Zealand dollar speculator positions fell slightly last week after improving the previous week. NZD contracts edged lower to a total of +28,536 net long contracts as of May 7th following a total of +29,050 net long contracts on April 30th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: NZD
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 04/02/2013 | 18387 | 1471 |
| 04/09/2013 | 25150 | 6763 |
| 04/16/2013 | 30808 | 5658 |
| 04/23/2013 | 27705 | -3103 |
| 04/30/2013 | 29050 | 1345 |
| 05/07/2013 | 28536 | -514 |
Mexican Peso: Weekly change of -107
MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts were virtually unchanged last week from the previous week. Peso positions declined slightly to a total of +138,441 net speculative positions as of May 7th following a total of +138,551 contracts that were reported for April 30th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: MXN
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 04/02/2013 | 142755 | 14593 |
| 04/09/2013 | 142542 | -213 |
| 04/16/2013 | 151288 | 8746 |
| 04/23/2013 | 146911 | -4377 |
| 04/30/2013 | 138551 | -8360 |
| 05/07/2013 | 138444 | -107 |
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)
See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
Article by CountingPips.com – Forex News & Market Analysis
